WR Puka Nacua LAR (1 Viewer)

[jobarules]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over and rotate prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

I’d up it to 50+

Someone’s paying 50% for him. It might as well be you.

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Yea I am definitely going over $50 for him.

Crap! You guys might be right.

EDIT — Changed to $53.

As always you have to know your league too. My league only had 5 guys use more than 60% of their yearly FAAB. Of those only 2 used all of it (me and one other guy). One guy didn't use any all year. We tried explaining it to him but he just doesn't do it.

I used this exact methodology in a 16 team Dynasty I took over an orphan in.

I studied the ww reports for the prior season and adjusted down my bids from that.

…and missed every single player I’d bid on.


Puka is a WR1 while Kupp is out and at worst a wr3 when he returns, IMO

Bid accordingly

It is not a good feeling when you wake up wednesday morning at 5am and see that you were outbid. I always spend when I see a guy I want. I trust that if I am willing to spend that means I took an educated risk. Puka has the ability to win your league, you have to spend for that kind of potential. There might only be handful of guys all year with that kind of potential, and who knows if it happens again? A lot of those type of guys are usually already rostered.

These kind of risks do not always work out, but sometimes they will. Not to mention if you stay on top of news throughout the season their will be opportunities from Wednesday to Sunday morning to pick up players for FREE. For example I had $0 last year left in FAAB, and picked up D'onta Foreman 2 hours before Christian McCaffrey was traded the 49ers because of reports that I was paying attention too. Foreman definitely helped me win 2 to 3 weeks last year

You can still make it work even if you spend all your money and it doesn't work out

I am spending all my money on Joshua Kelley and Puka Nacua. If I get outbid than I get outbid. If I spend all my money than I got 2 guys that I think can really help my roster, and filled some big holes.

If you bid on two guys you're cutting both bids by 50%

 

[SoBeDad]

All 10 Puka Nacua catches in rookie WR's 119-yard debut | Week 1

I don't see much separation. Some of those passes had to be perfect. I'm slightly concerned about the hype.

 

[DeaLerZ]

Puka Nacua On Learning From Cooper Kupp & Preparing For His First NFL Game | Inside Rams Camp

Los Angeles Rams rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua joined Camryn Irwin and Rams staff writer Stu Jackson on the final episode of Inside Rams Camp. During the s...

www.youtube.com

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

I like the kid a lot but over 50% of your budget?? There will be other players you want on waivers.

I talked myself up to bidding $27 of my $100. While he seems great, he can easily end up being a WR3\4\Flex kinda guy, which is helpful but not league winning helpful. I just can't do 50%+ like some of you are.

I went $26 and I'm a Kupp owner. I can't feel like I'm in the minority here; there is risk. This is the same Stafford that people were downgrading Cooper Kupp because of, right? I'll take my lumps if I lose out but can't justify spending half my budget on him when I think I'm the only dog in the race at that rate.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

All 10 Puka Nacua catches in rookie WR's 119-yard debut | Week 1

I don't see much separation. Some of those passes had to be perfect. I'm slightly concerned about the hype.

Sure hands and won on 8+ contested catches. I feel the opposite.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

but can't justify spending half my budget on him when I think I'm the only dog in the race at that rate.

I assure you, you are not. Not by a long shot.

 

[Mitchie]

All 10 Puka Nacua catches in rookie WR's 119-yard debut | Week 1

I don't see much separation. Some of those passes had to be perfect. I'm slightly concerned about the hype.

Well if Stafford's healthy i'm not sure he needs that much separation, but agree with you in general people are getting a little carried away

 

[RenegadeRoy]

This is the same Stafford that people were downgrading Cooper Kupp because of, right?

Yes, but then we saw Stafford play on Sunday.

 

[FarFromHome]

After watching the week 1 highlight here's what I thought. Has decent size. Appears to be a decent route runner and has good hands. Seemed slow to me. Lacks quickness. Kids strong. Sure looked like he did most of his damage by knowing where to sit down in the zone. Had a man to man catch it was a quick slant he got open with his strength and a good route. I'm wondering if he was so successful because Stafford was just on and blew that zone up. I'm gonna promote him hard in our smackboard to try to drive the price up.

All my opinion and I reserve the right to change my opinion at any time.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

I keep going back and forth, Seattle's defense sucks. Nucua looks slow and lumbering. Is he the apple of Stafford’s eye, while Kupp is out? Sure. Does he hole value with Kupp back? I don't see it. Max bid, 20% of FAAB.

 

[zoonation]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I keep going back and forth, Seattle's defense sucks. Nucua looks slow and lumbering. Is he the apple of Stafford’s eye, while Kupp is out? Sure. Does he hole value with Kupp back? I don't see it. Max bid, 20% of FAAB.

McVay raved about his sure hands & route running all preseason.

I totally see it.

IMO even when Kupp returns he’s the ER3 in an offense that will be playing from behind much of the season.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

 

[zoonation]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

30%of faab this early with limited td upside is expensive. If Kupp is out long term? Sure. But if he comes back in week 5, which I am skeptical about to be honest, you just dumped a big wad on a a flex play when he gets back. That Seattle d was brutal yesterday.

I’m just not a big believer in emptying the wallet in week one with that many variables.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

30%of faab this early with limited td upside is expensive. If Kupp is out long term? Sure. But if he comes back in week 5, which I am skeptical about to be honest, you just dumped a big wad on a a flex play when he gets back. That Seattle d was brutal yesterday.

I’m just not a big believer in emptying the wallet in week one with that many variables.

Flex play/WR3/BYE week/injury replacement guy. Those can be very helpful.’

Double digit scoring is double digit scoring.

As for TDs, we all know how flukey those are. Just like I won’t project 10 catches a week, I’m not projecting him for 0 TD based on 1 week.

I’m not telling anyone to spend 30%+ of their FAAB on him. I’m saying someone in just about everyone’s league will do it.

 

[DeaLerZ]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

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[zoonation]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

30%of faab this early with limited td upside is expensive. If Kupp is out long term? Sure. But if he comes back in week 5, which I am skeptical about to be honest, you just dumped a big wad on a a flex play when he gets back. That Seattle d was brutal yesterday.

I’m just not a big believer in emptying the wallet in week one with that many variables.

Flex play/WR3/BYE week guy. Those can be very helpful.’

Double digit scoring is double digit scoring.

As for TDs, we all know how flukey those are. Just like I won’t project 10 catches a week, I’m not projecting him for 0 TD based on 1 week.

I’m not telling anyone to spend 30%+ of their FAAB on him. I’m saying someone in just about everyone’s league will do it.

Totally agree. I’m out at that price. Could be the difference between landing a league winning rb later on when you don’t have the bankroll to secure the asset.

Puca isn’t winning anyone a fantasy championship. Having said that, if you need a guy right now (don’t expect much next week), I get taking the shot.

 

[zoonation]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

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No. It was one week.

 

[Ray Barboni]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

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No. It was one week.

Zoon … you’re being obtuse.

Early waiver pickups hit more often than not - holding your waiver priority, or FAAB for later has been proven to not work.

This is the perfect type of player you take a shot on NOW. Early season breakouts are the only way to get a stud - most of the time you’re left with burning FAAB or waiver priority on a literal JAG.

Week 1 and 2 are thee most important weeks for long term waiver additions. Sleep now, and you’ll spend more on less, later

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

30%of faab this early with limited td upside is expensive. If Kupp is out long term? Sure. But if he comes back in week 5, which I am skeptical about to be honest, you just dumped a big wad on a a flex play when he gets back. That Seattle d was brutal yesterday.

I’m just not a big believer in emptying the wallet in week one with that many variables.

Flex play/WR3/BYE week guy. Those can be very helpful.’

Double digit scoring is double digit scoring.

As for TDs, we all know how flukey those are. Just like I won’t project 10 catches a week, I’m not projecting him for 0 TD based on 1 week.

I’m not telling anyone to spend 30%+ of their FAAB on him. I’m saying someone in just about everyone’s league will do it.

Totally agree. I’m out at that price. Could be the difference between landing a league winning rb later on when you don’t have the bankroll to secure the asset.

Puca isn’t winning anyone a fantasy championship. Having said that, if you need a guy right now (don’t expect much next week), I get taking the shot.

Bids can be situational. In my case, I already have the RBs to win a championship with CMC and Pollard. IF Nacua turns out to be a decent WR, that’s an important part of the equation for me as I don’t have a good WR corps.

 

[SoBeDad]

Nacua or Bourne? @Anarchy99

 

[FarFromHome]

Nacua or Bourne? @Anarchy99

Straight up gotta be Puka by a lot for me

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

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No. It was one week.

Zoon … you’re being obtuse.

Early waiver pickups hit more often than not - holding your waiver priority, or FAAB for later has been proven to not work.

This is the perfect type of player you take a shot on NOW. Early season breakouts are the only way to get a stud - most of the time you’re left with burning FAAB or waiver priority on a literal JAG.

Week 1 and 2 are thee most important weeks for long term waiver additions. Sleep now, and you’ll spend more on less, later

Although I haven’t see hard data to prove it, I’m with this line of thinking based on prior experience. The biggest surprises happen early on in the season. Surely players emerge over the season…like second year WRs in the second half of the season OR a backup RB gets to be a starter due to an injury to the starter. I’d rather focus FAAB dollars on the early surprises where I could benefit from a good pick all year long. AND…I build my drafts around sluffing at WR (and QB) so I can have a rock solid RB corps as WR is the mostly likely position to find good players off the waiver wire.

 

[zoonation]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

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No. It was one week.

Zoon … you’re being obtuse.

Early waiver pickups hit more often than not - holding your waiver priority, or FAAB for later has been proven to not work.

This is the perfect type of player you take a shot on NOW. Early season breakouts are the only way to get a stud - most of the time you’re left with burning FAAB or waiver priority on a literal JAG.

Week 1 and 2 are thee most important weeks for long term waiver additions. Sleep now, and you’ll spend more on less, later

Give me a couple of examples from the last two years.

 

[FarFromHome]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

- YouTube

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No. It was one week.

Zoon … you’re being obtuse.

Early waiver pickups hit more often than not - holding your waiver priority, or FAAB for later has been proven to not work.

This is the perfect type of player you take a shot on NOW. Early season breakouts are the only way to get a stud - most of the time you’re left with burning FAAB or waiver priority on a literal JAG.

Week 1 and 2 are thee most important weeks for long term waiver additions. Sleep now, and you’ll spend more on less, later

Although I haven’t see hard data to prove it, I’m with this line of thinking based on prior experience. The biggest surprises happen early on in the season. Surely players emerge over the season…like second year WRs in the second half of the season OR a backup RB gets to be a starter due to an injury to the starter. I’d rather focus FAAB dollars on the early surprises where I could benefit from a good pick all year long. AND…I build my drafts around sluffing at WR (and QB) so I can have a rock solid RB corps as WR is the mostly likely position to find good players off the waiver wire.

Interesting take about spending your money early rather then late. Hard data would be interesting to see, but you guys are selling me. Hmmmmm

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

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No. It was one week.

Zoon … you’re being obtuse.

Early waiver pickups hit more often than not - holding your waiver priority, or FAAB for later has been proven to not work.

This is the perfect type of player you take a shot on NOW. Early season breakouts are the only way to get a stud - most of the time you’re left with burning FAAB or waiver priority on a literal JAG.

Week 1 and 2 are thee most important weeks for long term waiver additions. Sleep now, and you’ll spend more on less, later

Although I haven’t see hard data to prove it, I’m with this line of thinking based on prior experience. The biggest surprises happen early on in the season. Surely players emerge over the season…like second year WRs in the second half of the season OR a backup RB gets to be a starter due to an injury to the starter. I’d rather focus FAAB dollars on the early surprises where I could benefit from a good pick all year long. AND…I build my drafts around sluffing at WR (and QB) so I can have a rock solid RB corps as WR is the mostly likely position to find good players off the waiver wire.

Flashing back to Hollywood Brown & Terry McLaurin.

I had the 1 priority. I chose poorly.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

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No. It was one week.

Zoon … you’re being obtuse.

Early waiver pickups hit more often than not - holding your waiver priority, or FAAB for later has been proven to not work.

This is the perfect type of player you take a shot on NOW. Early season breakouts are the only way to get a stud - most of the time you’re left with burning FAAB or waiver priority on a literal JAG.

Week 1 and 2 are thee most important weeks for long term waiver additions. Sleep now, and you’ll spend more on less, later

Give me a couple of examples from the last two years.

I just did with Hollywood & TMc

They were week 1 darlings. They both had solid seasons, though TMc was better.

 

[zoonation]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

- YouTube

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No. It was one week.

Zoon … you’re being obtuse.

Early waiver pickups hit more often than not - holding your waiver priority, or FAAB for later has been proven to not work.

This is the perfect type of player you take a shot on NOW. Early season breakouts are the only way to get a stud - most of the time you’re left with burning FAAB or waiver priority on a literal JAG.

Week 1 and 2 are thee most important weeks for long term waiver additions. Sleep now, and you’ll spend more on less, later

Although I haven’t see hard data to prove it, I’m with this line of thinking based on prior experience. The biggest surprises happen early on in the season. Surely players emerge over the season…like second year WRs in the second half of the season OR a backup RB gets to be a starter due to an injury to the starter. I’d rather focus FAAB dollars on the early surprises where I could benefit from a good pick all year long. AND…I build my drafts around sluffing at WR (and QB) so I can have a rock solid RB corps as WR is the mostly likely position to find good players off the waiver wire.

Flashing back to Hollywood Brown & Terry McLaurin.

I had the 1 priority. I chose poorly.

If you think those are comparable then spend away.

 

[zoonation]

If you need the WR help now, I get spending it. If not, I’m not dumping 30% faab

 

[habsfan]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

30%of faab this early with limited td upside is expensive. If Kupp is out long term? Sure. But if he comes back in week 5, which I am skeptical about to be honest, you just dumped a big wad on a a flex play when he gets back. That Seattle d was brutal yesterday.

I’m just not a big believer in emptying the wallet in week one with that many variables.

I'm not tracking on your perspective. In one breath you say you're in if Kupp in out long term. In the next you say you're skeptical Kupp is back in Week 5 yet overall you're out on Nacua. Colour me confused...

 

[rockaction]

I don't need the WR help right now, but I'm still spending 37% of my budget (which might not be enough) to obtain him. Our league is twelve-team, eighteen-round league, so there isn't much sitting on the wire. I feel I'd be remiss if I didn't at least try to spend a reasonable amount on the guy. Won't kill me if I lose out, though.

One more thing -- if the Rams don't continue to win and remain in the playoff chase, I doubt Kupp suits up anytime soon. Don't book that, but it's a feeling I get.

 

[zoonation]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

30%of faab this early with limited td upside is expensive. If Kupp is out long term? Sure. But if he comes back in week 5, which I am skeptical about to be honest, you just dumped a big wad on a a flex play when he gets back. That Seattle d was brutal yesterday.

I’m just not a big believer in emptying the wallet in week one with that many variables.

I'm not tracking on your perspective. In one breath you say you're in if Kupp in out long term. In the next you say you're skeptical Kupp is back in Week 5 yet overall you're out on Nacua. Colour me confused...

I may not have been clear. Wouldn’t be the first time.

What I am saying is that I’m not prepared to spend 30% faab (which I think will be the average to get him. Love it at 20ish) for a guy that could lose significant target share in week 5 forward. In an offense that I still think will struggle to score tds. If the crystal ball tells me that Kupp is out long term, I like Puca (at 30%) based purely on volume. Could be a solid wr2 if everything breaks right. Tons of targets. But it’s a lot to spend with the unknown variables.

If you need wr help to pick up wins this fall then I get it. But this guy, IMO, isn’t winning championships for you. His upside, with a Kupp season long injury, is a solid wr2. If Kupp comes back he is a flex play. 30% is a lot to spend on a flex play.

Clear as mud?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you think those are comparable then spend away

I don’t know that yet. But I know what I saw. He was targeted 15 times, caught 10, including contested catches, and has the trust of Stafford as a result. And for 3 more weeks he’s probably a WR1.

as such, I believe he’s worth the add if one needs WR help.

And I believe someone will spend between 40-50%

Those are the things I know.

I didn’t know whether Hollywood or TMc would have longevity either. One did. One sorta did.

The situation is similar. The results, TBD (as always)

 

[zoonation]

I don't need the WR help right now, but I'm still spending 37% of my budget (which might not be enough) to obtain him. Our league is twelve-team, eighteen-round league, so there isn't much sitting on the wire. I feel I'd be remiss if I didn't at least try to spend a reasonable amount on the guy. Won't kill me if I lose out, though.

One more thing -- if the Rams don't continue to win and remain in the playoff chase, I doubt Kupp suits up anytime soon. Don't book that, but it's a feeling I get.

18 deep? Then, no brainer really.

 

[FarFromHome]

I just can't get over what this offense would look like when Kupp does return. Dudes a target vacuum. If he comes back healthy I have minimal faith in Puka as much more then a good week, bad week, wr3. At best. Kupp might not return, if I knew that this would be way easier. This one is tricky for me. I enjoy the debate and it's really got me thinking as we countdown to waiver claim time. As of now I'm gonna dip my toe in at 20 of my 100. Thats 20 more then I was a few hours ago. Appreciate the discussion.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

if the Rams don't continue to win and remain in the playoff chase, I doubt Kupp suits up anytime soon. Don't book that, but it's a feeling I get.

I said as much on the Kupp topic a couple of times, but they won week 1, so

 

[zoonation]

If you think those are comparable then spend away

I don’t know that yet. But I know what I saw. He was targeted 15 times, caught 10, including contested catches, and has the trust of Stafford as a result. And for 3 more weeks he’s probably a WR1.

as such, I believe he’s worth the add if one needs WR help.

And I believe someone will spend between 40-50%

Those are the things I know.

I didn’t know whether Hollywood or TMc would have longevity either. One did. One sorta did.

The situation is similar. The results, TBD (as always)

Week one. Not much data. Again, if you told me Kupp is out long term? I’m in.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Thats 20 more then I was a few hours ago. Appreciate the discussion.

Best of luck.

I’m going higher in a league I need WR/Flex help for a few weeks due to injury.

Lower in a league where he’s a nice to have. And moreover where I don’t want to face Puka in the next 3 weeks.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Week one. Not much data. Again, if you told me Kupp is out long term? I’m in.

3 weeks at minimum. That’s long-term-ish

 

[FarFromHome]

I've said it before and I just struggle that he did nearly all his damage in zone. Teams have film on him now. Will be interesting how he responds as defenses matchup up man to man and say you don't have the speed to beat me. Im not trying to hate on him or go at any poster, I'm just curious. He does things well physically he just doesn't do anything that jumps off the film at u.

 

[zoonation]

Week one. Not much data. Again, if you told me Kupp is out long term? I’m in.

3 weeks at minimum. That’s long-term-ish

Only if you are hurting at WR.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

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No. It was one week.

Zoon … you’re being obtuse.

Early waiver pickups hit more often than not - holding your waiver priority, or FAAB for later has been proven to not work.

This is the perfect type of player you take a shot on NOW. Early season breakouts are the only way to get a stud - most of the time you’re left with burning FAAB or waiver priority on a literal JAG.

Week 1 and 2 are thee most important weeks for long term waiver additions. Sleep now, and you’ll spend more on less, later

Give me a couple of examples from the last two years.

Garrett Wilson week 2 of last year.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

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No. It was one week.

Zoon … you’re being obtuse.

Early waiver pickups hit more often than not - holding your waiver priority, or FAAB for later has been proven to not work.

This is the perfect type of player you take a shot on NOW. Early season breakouts are the only way to get a stud - most of the time you’re left with burning FAAB or waiver priority on a literal JAG.

Week 1 and 2 are thee most important weeks for long term waiver additions. Sleep now, and you’ll spend more on less, later

Give me a couple of examples from the last two years.

It’s week one. Someone is going to blow 30%+. Happens every year. Not worth it imo. The Rams aren’t a good football team.

They don’t need to be for Puca to be a stud FF WR.

In fact one might argue the opposite.

Yea I am not understanding the "He is not fast" argument. He was targeted 15x and caught 10 of them in his first game as a pro. Numbers don't lie. Also he clearly gets enough seperation even on the deep routes that he ran. Sure he isn't a burner, but he is a great route runner. I love how he is always asking Kupp questions, learning from the best, is a grinder, and has a great attitude. It's no wonder the coaches love him.

Not to mention he almost had 2 TD catches for another 50+ yards. If that ball didn't get tipped on the first one, and Stafford didn't overthrow him on the 2nd.

Would 12 rec 150 yards 2 tds on 15 targets make you think different?

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No. It was one week.

Zoon … you’re being obtuse.

Early waiver pickups hit more often than not - holding your waiver priority, or FAAB for later has been proven to not work.

This is the perfect type of player you take a shot on NOW. Early season breakouts are the only way to get a stud - most of the time you’re left with burning FAAB or waiver priority on a literal JAG.

Week 1 and 2 are thee most important weeks for long term waiver additions. Sleep now, and you’ll spend more on less, later

Although I haven’t see hard data to prove it, I’m with this line of thinking based on prior experience. The biggest surprises happen early on in the season. Surely players emerge over the season…like second year WRs in the second half of the season OR a backup RB gets to be a starter due to an injury to the starter. I’d rather focus FAAB dollars on the early surprises where I could benefit from a good pick all year long. AND…I build my drafts around sluffing at WR (and QB) so I can have a rock solid RB corps as WR is the mostly likely position to find good players off the waiver wire.

Interesting take about spending your money early rather then late. Hard data would be interesting to see, but you guys are selling me. Hmmmmm

I can’t stress enough the benefits of good hard data. Our experience and observations can be very useful but it takes a long time to see patterns emerge and people can easily miss things that matter. I 100% include myself. Coming here and listening to the perspective of others and taking in their arguments for or against a given idea is also a big plus. I’ve certainly been adjusting my thoughts about Nacua today. There is definitely some good thinking in this thread. However, there is nothing I like more than a good statistical take that offers objectivity on the probabilities for these kinds of decisions. In my case, I find Nacua‘s first game stats are very rare and the few players with similar stats in their rookie debut have done pretty well. Maybe I’m looking at the wrong data or the sample is too small or my method of cutting the data is flawed or doesn’t consider other important factors but I’m willing to take that risk and hope he’s going to perform somewhere in the neighborhood of Anquan Boldin in 2003. And I’m willing…largely due to my team’s somewhat unique situation…to go big on acquiring Nacua on waivers overnight.

 

[zoonation]

Garrett Wilson was drafted 10th overall. Not comparable imo.

 

[DeaLerZ]

I always spend early. This Has literally won me championships

Alfred Morris (spent $100 after week 1)
Antonio Brown (year 2 I believe ?)
Josh Gordon
Jordan Howard
James Robinson
Kenneth Walker (spent $100)

I look at the first 3 weeks of the season as the most important on the waiver wire. There are always guys the “experts” miss or the coaches have kept quiet to unleash. You gotta Go big or go home

If I can’t recover from spending some FAAB money then that means I drafted poorly, or have too many injuries. Either way there are always pick ups from Wednesday to Sunday with injuries and updates

Spend the Monopoly money

 

[Largent]

A lot of reasonable concerns IF Kupp is back in 4 weeks. He's already sought a 2nd opinion from a neurologist and McVay has said some suttle alarming things when it comes to "what he's dealing with, we will know more later" sort of thing. And let's say he does come back, what's the odds of him re-injuring himself....this is a repeat issue with Kupp and his health.

I'm not desperate for WR, but given the depth needed at the position with regular starters dropping like flies, I'm going aggressive to get him. If he's my 4th or 5th WR for a league that dresses 3WR and 2 flexes....worse things.

 

[heckmanm]

Picked him up last week in a salary cap dynasty for 3 units of a 400 cap. Giddy up

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Garrett Wilson was drafted 10th overall. Not comparable imo.

Sure it is. Once they're on an NFL roster where they were drafted out of college means squat. There were plenty analyst who liked Pacua out of college. I'd say GWilson is a very similar comp based on the negatives I've seen in this thread: questionable QB play and a bad team.

Zoon, same question for you: who are some "league winners" from the last two years you've gotten in the back half of the season due to saved FAAB money (or maybe some you missed on)?

 

[Ilov80s]

I don't need the WR help right now, but I'm still spending 37% of my budget (which might not be enough) to obtain him. Our league is twelve-team, eighteen-round league, so there isn't much sitting on the wire. I feel I'd be remiss if I didn't at least try to spend a reasonable amount on the guy. Won't kill me if I lose out, though.

One more thing -- if the Rams don't continue to win and remain in the playoff chase, I doubt Kupp suits up anytime soon. Don't book that, but it's a feeling I get.

Yeah, I am spending a lot on him as well. My WRs were the weak spot of my team and they sure lived up to that billing week 1. It's worth the risk IMO to get a potential regular starter. I am very skeptical of Kupp coming back any time soon.

 

[zoonation]

I will say, if you have a big hole in a flex spot right now, with no good options, go get him. He could shore that up short term (SF this week could be tough, but if he gets 10+ targets and some garbage…). Will be expensive though.

And if Kupp is out long term it could be tremendous value.

I’m not spending it because the cost isn’t worth it for me right now. But there are certainly situations where it could be.