WR Puka Nacua LAR (1 Viewer)

[King of the Jungle]

Big fat nothing burger for me as a dynasty owner, but I had a feeling this would be blown out of proportion as soon as I read the story.

Agree. I wouldn’t be shocked if many players feel the same way, Puka just made the mistake of actually saying it. Being drafted a bit late, he still needs to make that real money first. Doesn’t impact my thoughts on him in dynasty.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Big fat nothing burger for me as a dynasty owner, but I had a feeling this would be blown out of proportion as soon as I read the story.

Agree. I wouldn’t be shocked if many players feel the same way, Puka just made the mistake of actually saying it. Being drafted a bit late, he still needs to make that real money first. Doesn’t impact my thoughts on him in dynasty.

I don’t imagine too many dynasty players are going to be overreacting to this, but not a bad idea to sniff around and see if you can buy a top-7 dynasty WR at a slight discount.

 

[JohnnyU]

Puka Nacua said he wants to retire at age 30.
Nacua said on a recent podcast appearance that he might call it quits after another six or seven seasons in the NFL. “I’m 23 right now, I’m going into year three – it wouldn’t even be 10 years. It’d be maybe seven or eight,” said Nacua, who has had one of the most productive starts a career in NFL history. “I think of Aaron Donald, to go out at the top, I think it would be super cool. But also, I want to have a big family.”

Not earth-shattering, but it definitely shortens his dynasty window. He's 23 now, and turns 24 in May.

So there it is - if he sticks to this (and not sure why he wouldn't) that gives FF shareholders a 6 year window with him. And every year closer to his age 29 season he theoretically becomes less valuable as a dynasty asset due to the looming retirement.

It's an interesting situation, and one I can't remember hearing about with a young player before - hard to know how to value him in this context.

On a personal level, FF aside, much respect to the dude for knowing what he wants in life and setting that goal - good for him. He's likely going to retire with generational wealth, and with a bit of luck be healthy & have his faculties.

But it's definitely unique, and IMO dings his value a little in an era where we frequently see WRs play into their early-30s.

It's a long way off, Tyreek said the same thing (of course that was before he had 25 kids), understand not the same but I've had friends say they're going to retire at 45, 50, etc. and haven't done so even though they could prob afford to do so.

Yep!
I’ve been saying that for the last 10 years. I’m almost 60 and I’m sure I’ll say it for 5 more.

But I am getting closer to meaning it…

I mean it May 15th

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

It’s not hard to imagine that Puka will earn a $60-75m contract extension.

 

[pinkstapler]

Until the Puka owners who are claiming "this makes me consider selling him" also include this concern in how they are pricing Puka when selling him, it's a nothing burger. I don't see any value change reflected on KTC or heard anything about it in any of my leagues other than one or two where a non-Puka owner posts in in group chat just to stoke the fire/attempt to scare up a price drop for buyers.

 

[eighsse2]

Until the Puka owners who are claiming "this makes me consider selling him" also include this concern in how they are pricing Puka when selling him, it's a nothing burger. I don't see any value change reflected on KTC or heard anything about it in any of my leagues other than one or two where a non-Puka owner posts in in group chat just to stoke the fire/attempt to scare up a price drop for buyers.

True. Selling and discounting are two different things. "Selling" alone doesn't really mean much.

 

[Ray_T]

Big fat nothing burger for me as a dynasty owner, but I had a feeling this would be blown out of proportion as soon as I read the story.

Agree. I wouldn’t be shocked if many players feel the same way, Puka just made the mistake of actually saying it. Being drafted a bit late, he still needs to make that real money first. Doesn’t impact my thoughts on him in dynasty.

its also possible hes setting himself up for future with a negotiating tactic. I plan to retire at 31. but if hes still productive then a team will have to pay him enough to make it worth his while.

I agree, probably a nothing burger. worry about that when he hits 30. if hes still talking about it then, you can worry about it at that time

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Until the Puka owners who are claiming "this makes me consider selling him" also include this concern in how they are pricing Puka when selling him, it's a nothing burger

Not everyone is as terminally online as a bunch of dorks at a FF discussion forum.

It’s going to take a minute for this to the larger fantasy ecosystem. It may even be a blurb that gets almost no attention and then suddenly in 6 years a lot of folks will be surprised.

Also why would anyone expect to take a discount? Saying a dude might have a self-imposed shorter shelf-life isn’t the same thing as saying a dude isn’t valuable. But if I were a shareholder and saw this update on my player page, I might consider selling high-ish.

It’s hardly a nothing burger. It’s more equivalent to seeing a psychic who accurately tells you that your best player will suffer a career-ending injury in 6 years. Nothing changes that player’s value in the present - but it’s looming.

It’s not crazy to think some shareholders might want to move him with this new information. Some shareholders might not believe it, and some might not care.

Personally, if I were offered Puka in a 2025-value trade, I’d probably be a bit wary of paying full price for a dude with a known expiration date. I would still try to acquire him, because I like productive WRs, but I might use that info to try to get a discount. (And as mentioned earlier, I’m skeptical the owner would him give up at a discount)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

its also possible hes setting himself up for future with a negotiating tactic. I plan to retire at 31. but if hes still productive then a team will have to pay him enough to make it worth his while.

If you read what he said, you’ll see it’s extremely unlikely that this is a negotiating tactic.

He’s had some lower body injuries, but the severe concussion seems to have caused a great deal of self reflection on what’s important in life. To him, that’s family/kids/future >>> NFL.

 

[Enzo....the Baker]

its also possible hes setting himself up for future with a negotiating tactic. I plan to retire at 31. but if hes still productive then a team will have to pay him enough to make it worth his while.

If you read what he said, you’ll see it’s extremely unlikely that this is a negotiating tactic.

He’s had some lower body injuries, but the severe concussion seems to have caused a great deal of self reflection on what’s important in life. To him, that’s family/kids/future >>> NFL.

It absolutely could be a negotiating tactic. Aaron Donald did the same thing and he squeezed the he'll out of the Rams for 1 more year

Especially when he says he'd like to go out like.....Aaron Donald

Maybe it is more health than wealth related, but I can't rule out wealth entirely

 

[pinkstapler]

Until the Puka owners who are claiming "this makes me consider selling him" also include this concern in how they are pricing Puka when selling him, it's a nothing burger

Not everyone is as terminally online as a bunch of dorks at a FF discussion forum.

It’s going to take a minute for this to the larger fantasy ecosystem. It may even be a blurb that gets almost no attention and then suddenly in 6 years a lot of folks will be surprised.

Also why would anyone expect to take a discount? Saying a dude might have a self-imposed shorter shelf-life isn’t the same thing as saying a dude isn’t valuable. But if I were a shareholder and saw this update on my player page, I might consider selling high-ish.

It’s hardly a nothing burger. It’s more equivalent to seeing a psychic who accurately tells you that your best player will suffer a career-ending injury in 6 years. Nothing changes that player’s value in the present - but it’s looming.

It’s not crazy to think some shareholders might want to move him with this new information. Some shareholders might not believe it, and some might not care.

Personally, if I were offered Puka in a 2025-value trade, I’d probably be a bit wary of paying full price for a dude with a known expiration date. I would still try to acquire him, because I like productive WRs, but I might use that info to try to get a discount. (And as mentioned earlier, I’m skeptical the owner would him give up at a discount)

KTC is. In fact, I'd argue it's even more "terminally online" than this forum. Even if we say they are close to equal, the user base is multiplicatively larger. Normally I leave some room for doubt on these things, but especially this time of year when I'm negotiating trades I'm on there several times a day nearly every day so I literally have first hand experience seeing this. You'll see value swings within hours of news breaks, let alone days. So if it was going to react to this, it would have started by now.

I just disagree, quite strongly, on the rest of your post too. But that's just opinion so no point in dickering about it. My main takeaway though is if there is no value change, why does it matter? And if the value change is only as his supposed proposed early retire date, how is this nominally different than the typical value decline as players age and near retirement? To me; it doesn't at all. And reading your post it ironically sounds like you agree with me on just about every point except that one lol. There is no real value change, owners won't be selling at a discount, and even if buyers are wary and want to pay less now if no one is selling for less his market is still unchanged. So.... nothing burger.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My main takeaway though is if there is no value change, why does it matter? And if the value change is only as his supposed proposed early retire date, how is this nominally different than the typical value decline as players age and near retirement?

Because there’s a difference between present day value and expectation of longevity.

Mile high viewpoint, I look at it more like why I prefer to invest in WR than RB in dynasty. Typically a longer shelf life. Derick Henry is the exception, the field is the rule. WRs tend to have much longer windows of productivity.

As for Puka, the difference it makes is we know the expiration date. And I agree with you that for many it won’t move the needle on value - it’s the reason some folks reach for the 1st bottle of milk on the shelf, and others reach for the bottle 5-6 back with a later expiration date.

Both bottles of milk are fresh and delicious today - I just like having a little longer shelf-life.

Of course we could get way into the weeds saying “well it’s all unpredictable because some folks get hurt, blah blah” but that would actually make a stronger case for why Puka perhaps should see a little value slide, because he has sustained a couple of injuries, and it’s his stated reason for not wanting to play more than ~6 more years.

That his concussion was serious enough to shift his career plans tells me that if he has another significant concussion he may hang ‘em up before 6 years.

Anyway, we all have our takes as you suggest, though I’d say KTC is also a bunch of online dorks and not representative of the greater FF population who isn’t paying any attention to FF in March. (Self-deprecating, as I count myself among the online dork masses).

Reality is that millions of people play FF, and maybe 5% of that are terminally online about it year-round.

But to a person like me, who sometimes likes to read between the lines, if I still had Puka I would start sniffing around to see what I could get in return. But as you & others have said, I wouldn’t be looking to offer him at a discount just because he’s the 1st bottle of milk on the shelf. He’s still fresh and delicious - we just know his expiration date is shorter.

If it hasn’t moved his value needle, cool. IMO it absolutely should.

 

[pinkstapler]

My main takeaway though is if there is no value change, why does it matter? And if the value change is only as his supposed proposed early retire date, how is this nominally different than the typical value decline as players age and near retirement?

Because there’s a difference between present day value and expectation of longevity.

Mile high viewpoint, I look at it more like why I prefer to invest in WR than RB in dynasty. Typically a longer shelf life. Derick Henry is the exception, the field is the rule. WRs tend to have much longer windows of productivity.

As for Puka, the difference it makes is we know the expiration date. And I agree with you that for many it won’t move the needle on value - it’s the reason some folks people reach for the 1st bottle of milk on the shelf, and others reach for the bottle 5-6 back with a later expiration date.

Both bottles of milk are fresh and delicious today - I just like having a little longer shelf-life.

Of course we could get way into the weeds saying “well it’s all unpredictable because some folks get hurt, blah blah” but that would actually make a stronger case for why Puka perhaps should see a little value slide, because he has sustained a couple of injuries, and it’s his stated reason for not wanting to play more than ~6 more years.

That his concussion was serious enough to shift his career plans tells me that if he has another significant concussion he may hang ‘em up before 6 years.

Anyway, we all have our takes as you suggest, though I’d say KTC is also a bunch of online dorks and not representative of the greater FF population who isn’t paying any attention to FF in March. (Self-deprecating, as I count myself among the online dork masses).

Reality is that millions of people play FF, and maybe 5% of that are terminally online about it year-round.

But to a person like me, who sometimes likes to read between the lines, if I still had Puka I would start sniffing around to see what I could get in return. But as you & others have said, I wouldn’t be looking to offer him at a discount just because he’s the 1st bottle of milk on the shelf. He’s still fresh and delicious - we just know his expiration date is shorter.

If it hasn’t moved his value needle, cool. IMO it absolutely should.

Fair point comparing it to favoring WR over RB; that rang true to me. I can definitely see a world where if you were trading for a WR and had a choice between Puka and ARSB (who have nearly identical consensus values) you could get significant amount of people who read that article leaning more towards ARSB. Even though I do tend to still think it's a "who really knows" situation, why take the risk? Why not make a decision with all the available information, especially when that information is coming from the player himself which you could easily argue strengthens it even more than some anonymous league source.

I still think owners should basically write this off completely, as I think it would be a huge mistake to sell at any kind of discount and (my own bias/opinion here) that he is already underrated. I personally think for fantasy Puka is the WR3 overall, first in tier under the JJ/Chase tier. So shouldn't have buried the lead as that obviously colors my takes here. But I do think you got me on board that as a buyer I'd at least consider other options with less question marks considering the price you need to pay to acquire one of the top 8 or so WRs in the game.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

think it would be a huge mistake to sell at any kind of discount

Yep, we’re in agreement on this part for sure.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I think my point and maybe HSG's point is that this is a data point to evaluate Puka as a sell high candidate, not as a discount sell.

 

[Ray_T]

its also possible hes setting himself up for future with a negotiating tactic. I plan to retire at 31. but if hes still productive then a team will have to pay him enough to make it worth his while.

If you read what he said, you’ll see it’s extremely unlikely that this is a negotiating tactic.

He’s had some lower body injuries, but the severe concussion seems to have caused a great deal of self reflection on what’s important in life. To him, that’s family/kids/future >>> NFL.

nothing is a negotiating tactic until it is.

we wont know until the time comes. but most players dont retire at the age of 30 or 31. Rothlisberger threatened to retire a few times before he finally did it. so its not the first time this has been a negotiation tactic.

but you are right. his health may not hold up long enough to get there. its certainly possible. Puka is a smallish WR so likely takes more of a pounding on the field due to his smaller size.

either way in dynasty I place most of a players value on what they will do in the next 2-3 years. beyond that is difficult to predict. I still consider it a nothing burger. You can disagree if you want. I take no offense if you do

 

[Ray_T]

My main takeaway though is if there is no value change, why does it matter? And if the value change is only as his supposed proposed early retire date, how is this nominally different than the typical value decline as players age and near retirement?

Because there’s a difference between present day value and expectation of longevity.

Mile high viewpoint, I look at it more like why I prefer to invest in WR than RB in dynasty. Typically a longer shelf life. Derick Henry is the exception, the field is the rule. WRs tend to have much longer windows of productivity.

As for Puka, the difference it makes is we know the expiration date. And I agree with you that for many it won’t move the needle on value - it’s the reason some folks reach for the 1st bottle of milk on the shelf, and others reach for the bottle 5-6 back with a later expiration date.

Both bottles of milk are fresh and delicious today - I just like having a little longer shelf-life.

Of course we could get way into the weeds saying “well it’s all unpredictable because some folks get hurt, blah blah” but that would actually make a stronger case for why Puka perhaps should see a little value slide, because he has sustained a couple of injuries, and it’s his stated reason for not wanting to play more than ~6 more years.

That his concussion was serious enough to shift his career plans tells me that if he has another significant concussion he may hang ‘em up before 6 years.

Anyway, we all have our takes as you suggest, though I’d say KTC is also a bunch of online dorks and not representative of the greater FF population who isn’t paying any attention to FF in March. (Self-deprecating, as I count myself among the online dork masses).

Reality is that millions of people play FF, and maybe 5% of that are terminally online about it year-round.

But to a person like me, who sometimes likes to read between the lines, if I still had Puka I would start sniffing around to see what I could get in return. But as you & others have said, I wouldn’t be looking to offer him at a discount just because he’s the 1st bottle of milk on the shelf. He’s still fresh and delicious - we just know his expiration date is shorter.

If it hasn’t moved his value needle, cool. IMO it absolutely should.

hey I get all of that. just to add to my prior post. I value puka in dynasty a bit lower than most anyway. not because of this.

but because his QB (Stafford) doesnt have much time left. who is gonna throw him the ball after that? Thats a bigger reason do discount him. and yes, if I owned him I'd probably sell high unless I felt like I could compete for a championship in the next year (or possibly two)

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

its also possible hes setting himself up for future with a negotiating tactic. I plan to retire at 31. but if hes still productive then a team will have to pay him enough to make it worth his while.

If you read what he said, you’ll see it’s extremely unlikely that this is a negotiating tactic.

He’s had some lower body injuries, but the severe concussion seems to have caused a great deal of self reflection on what’s important in life. To him, that’s family/kids/future >>> NFL.

nothing is a negotiating tactic until it is.

we wont know until the time comes. but most players dont retire at the age of 30 or 31. Rothlisberger threatened to retire a few times before he finally did it. so its not the first time this has been a negotiation tactic.

but you are right. his health may not hold up long enough to get there. its certainly possible. Puka is a smallish WR so likely takes more of a pounding on the field due to his smaller size.

either way in dynasty I place most of a players value on what they will do in the next 2-3 years. beyond that is difficult to predict. I still consider it a nothing burger. You can disagree if you want. I take no offense if you do

Puka is 6'2" 212 as per the all knowing Wikipedia. I wouldn't consider that smallish. He takes a pounding because he often gives up his body to get to every throw coming his way...particularly over the middle. That's why he's an injury risk.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think my point and maybe HSG's point is that this is a data point to evaluate Puka as a sell high candidate, not as a discount sell.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

but you are right. his health may not hold up long enough to get there. its certainly possible. Puka is a smallish WR so likely takes more of a pounding on the field due to his smaller size.

either way in dynasty I place most of a players value on what they will do in the next 2-3 years. beyond that is difficult to predict. I still consider it a nothing burger. You can disagree if you want. I take no offense if you do

That’s fair, but IMO concussions are a very different animal. Especially in the YOOL 2025 with so much new and evolving information about them, evidence of shortened lifespan & a couple of very scary moments witn other notable players (Tua comes immediately to mind).

Puka is a young man, looking at earning enough millions that his grandchildren won’t have to work. He seems to be focused on wanting to still have his faculties so he can enjoy it with them.

As for the 2nd paragraph, I’m of the same mindset. 2-3 year windows for players.

But that also comes into play when valuing Puka now, because maybe in 3 years you decide he only has another 3 so better to sell, right? Or maybe you simply absorb the risk knowing he’ll prematurely retire on your roster? Either way, it’s a data point.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

but because his QB (Stafford) doesnt have much time left. who is gonna throw him the ball after that? Thats a bigger reason do discount him. and yes, if I owned him I'd probably sell high unless I felt like I could compete for a championship in the next year (or possibly two)

Yep - all fair points that I agree with.

 

[Ray_T]

its also possible hes setting himself up for future with a negotiating tactic. I plan to retire at 31. but if hes still productive then a team will have to pay him enough to make it worth his while.

If you read what he said, you’ll see it’s extremely unlikely that this is a negotiating tactic.

He’s had some lower body injuries, but the severe concussion seems to have caused a great deal of self reflection on what’s important in life. To him, that’s family/kids/future >>> NFL.

nothing is a negotiating tactic until it is.

we wont know until the time comes. but most players dont retire at the age of 30 or 31. Rothlisberger threatened to retire a few times before he finally did it. so its not the first time this has been a negotiation tactic.

but you are right. his health may not hold up long enough to get there. its certainly possible. Puka is a smallish WR so likely takes more of a pounding on the field due to his smaller size.

either way in dynasty I place most of a players value on what they will do in the next 2-3 years. beyond that is difficult to predict. I still consider it a nothing burger. You can disagree if you want. I take no offense if you do

Puka is 6'2" 212 as per the all knowing Wikipedia. I wouldn't consider that smallish. He takes a pounding because he often gives up his body to get to every throw coming his way...particularly over the middle. That's why he's an injury risk.

ok I didnt think he was quite that tall.

on another site I use (which shall remain nameless) hes listed at 201 lbs. and I seem to recall as a rookie he was less than 200 lbs.

clearly the team figured adding a few pounds would make him stronger and add to his durability. so that's likely due to a training program they put him on. either way I consider anything less than 200 lbs for a WR I consider smallish. so depending on which measurement you use, hes on the cusp. maybe we can say hes only average in size.

I still dont think of him as a large guy. maybe thats my issue more than anything.

 

[Jppaul]

do we know the context where and when he said it? Is it possible that the response was solicited? I didn't see the journalist/story/question. Did he say it without prompting?

I mean, if a journalist showed a video of (I think it was) pit rb jerome bettis getting out of the bed in the morning at the end of his career where he is beat to crap, then asked Puka his thoughts... well, that could generate a whole bunch of thoughts and emotions that he might not normally have shared?

 

[3nOut]

So for this year, does the signing of Adams help or hurt Puka?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

So for this year, does the signing of Adams help or hurt Puka?

I think it helps. Puka and Kupp were essentially the same type of receiver. Davante, assuming he hasn't lost a step, is a field stretcher and will open up the middle for Puka. I still think Stafford has the stuff to get it to Adams on the regular and spread enough targets around that both WRs will do well.

 

[3nOut]

So for this year, does the signing of Adams help or hurt Puka?

I think it helps. Puka and Kupp were essentially the same type of receiver. Davante, assuming he hasn't lost a step, is a field stretcher and will open up the middle for Puka. I still think Stafford has the stuff to get it to Adams on the regular and spread enough targets around that both WRs will do well.

But does Adams keep Puka from being a tip 5 WR as he is projected for this year?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

So for this year, does the signing of Adams help or hurt Puka?

I think it helps. Puka and Kupp were essentially the same type of receiver. Davante, assuming he hasn't lost a step, is a field stretcher and will open up the middle for Puka. I still think Stafford has the stuff to get it to Adams on the regular and spread enough targets around that both WRs will do well.

But does Adams keep Puka from being a tip 5 WR as he is projected for this year?

I'm not sure any WR can keep Puka from being top 5 in the league.

 

[menobrown]

So for this year, does the signing of Adams help or hurt Puka?

Slight ding. Passing game will center around Puka but I don't think Davante scares anyone to point of help opening things up for Puka so he's just another mouth to feed and I think he'll eat a little more then Kupp did since Puka emerged.

But does Adams keep Puka from being a tip 5 WR as he is projected for this year?

The consensus seems to be Chase is 1, Jefferson is two and then opinions split on the group of Puka , Lamb, Nabers, Thomas, ARSB and Nico generally 8th. Gun to my head I'd probably put him as 7 today, and part of the deciding factor is durabilty.

 

[FantasyGuru24]

Puka or Achane in 1/2 PPR?

 

[JoeJoe88]

Puka or Achane in 1/2 PPR?

Pukachu.