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WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (1 Viewer)

jm192 said:
I think he comps really well to Gabe Davis.
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Disagree. Davis was a 4th round pick. Johnston was a 1st round pick. There are reasons for that.

Although he has speed and can go deep, Johnston's real strength is running after the catch. If he excels, it will likely be more with intermediate targets that put him in position to make plays with the ball. I don't really think those things are true of Davis, at least not to the same degree.

jm192 said:
Will they have several games where they throw it 20-22 times per game like they have so far? I sure think so.
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Several? I doubt it, unless Herbert misses a lot of games. Or unless by several you mean maybe 2-3 more games out of 14. @ATB laid it out quite nicely in a post on the previous page of the thread.
 
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jm192 said:
massraider said:
jm192 said:
OK, but...

I keep saying the concern is volume.
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If the TD regression is obvious and inevitable to you, as it is to me, why is the possibility of regression resulting in more volume not even possible to you?

You may think Herbert will only throw the ball 20 times a game. But history says that he will throw it more than that.

And in terms of targtets, it is QJ, Ladd, and no one else that anyone is concerned about. I don't see how QJ gets less than 5 targets a game, and will probably average more.
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FWIW

It's never been a declaration of "He can't succeed."

I said I would sell high because the volume is a concern. Maybe it does improve. Does it improve significantly? You said 5--that puts us at 85 on the year. That's Gabe Davis territory. Most people haven't been super comfortable putting Gabe into their lineups the last few years.

But we're 17.6% through the season. I think we have SOME idea of how much the Chargers want to pass the ball. Will they pass it more in some games? Of course. Will they have several games where they throw it 20-22 times per game like they have so far? I sure think so.
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Gabe Davis stinks and is not consistent at all. Johnson has been pretty consistent I would say.
 
Getting some Rashee Rice from last season vibes in here. Trending towards being the #1 WR in a low(ish)-volume passing offense with an elite QB. Targets are sparse right now, but if he keeps making the most of them, if/when the pie grows, so should his piece. At least, in theory. He has to keep making plays - and the passing offense has to expand for him to be anything more than a TD-dependent WR2/3 in fantasy. But both of those factors are well within the set of realistic probabilities here IMO, so I am in wait-&-see mode.
 
There are TD-dependent WRs, and there are red zone threats. If a WR is racking up TDs off low volume (overall, not just low target share), that feels to me like a sign a team is working hard to look for him and can scheme him open.

All the physical tools are there, and he runs great routes- now that the drops are fixed, I don’t see why he can’t fill a DeAndre Hopkins-type roll on a team that is going to be facing way stiffer competition and therefore it throw more.

I’m buying in. Luckily I can let him ride the pine until we know what’s going on with Herbert.
 
For FBG subscribers Waldman wrote a nice gut check article on him. He thinks he still has a ways but there are definite signs of improvement and the Chargers are putting him in better positions to play to his strengths.
 
LawFitz said:
Getting some Rashee Rice from last season vibes in here. Trending towards being the #1 WR in a low(ish)-volume passing offense with an elite QB. Targets are sparse right now, but if he keeps making the most of them, if/when the pie grows, so should his piece. At least, in theory. He has to keep making plays - and the passing offense has to expand for him to be anything more than a TD-dependent WR2/3 in fantasy. But both of those factors are well within the set of realistic probabilities here IMO, so I am in wait-&-see mode.
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Yep as the schedule gets tougher for the Chargers, they will need to throw the ball more which will result on more opportunities for QJ.
 
Back healthy, only rostered in about 30-35% of most leagues, likely available on your WW
Has had a couple nice games early, the passing game is not even remotely set for pecking order
Had 3 TDs in 2 games, lot of competitive football left
IMHO, he will be a hot waiver move this week or the next one and this thread hasn't seen life in over a month, he's not on many folks radar right now
Get ahead of waivers, he's 6-4/215 and he's only been in the NFL 1 year, this is just his 2nd season out of TCU and he's learning a new offense again
I would give him a strong look if you need a WR
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Back healthy, only rostered in about 30-35% of most leagues, likely available on your WW
Has had a couple nice games early, the passing game is not even remotely set for pecking order
Had 3 TDs in 2 games, lot of competitive football left
IMHO, he will be a hot waiver move this week or the next one and this thread hasn't seen life in over a month, he's not on many folks radar right now
Get ahead of waivers, he's 6-4/215 and he's only been in the NFL 1 year, this is just his 2nd season out of TCU and he's learning a new offense again
I would give him a strong look if you need a WR
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He's on my bench until I see volume. His targets have been 5,6,2 5,4 in the game he got injured.

I picked him up after his 2 TD game and kept him after the injury. In the game he got hurt, I think they made a deliberate effort to involve him ... 2 short receptions on the opening drive, then the ankle injury a little later.

Herbert is throwing more now as teams key on the run, 3 straight games with 32+ passes in 3 straight games. I think Quentin gets a few long pass attempts from Herbert, but still wanna see the volume.
 
SoBeDad said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Back healthy, only rostered in about 30-35% of most leagues, likely available on your WW
Has had a couple nice games early, the passing game is not even remotely set for pecking order
Had 3 TDs in 2 games, lot of competitive football left
IMHO, he will be a hot waiver move this week or the next one and this thread hasn't seen life in over a month, he's not on many folks radar right now
Get ahead of waivers, he's 6-4/215 and he's only been in the NFL 1 year, this is just his 2nd season out of TCU and he's learning a new offense again
I would give him a strong look if you need a WR
Click to expand...
He's on my bench until I see volume. His targets have been 5,6,2 5,4 in the game he got injured.

I picked him up after his 2 TD game and kept him after the injury. In the game he got hurt, I think they made a deliberate effort to involve him ... 2 short receptions on the opening drive, then the ankle injury a little later.

Herbert is throwing more now as teams key on the run, 3 straight games with 32+ passes in 3 straight games. I think Quentin gets a few long pass attempts from Herbert, but still wanna see the volume.
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Decent Bye Week fill, Boom/Bust flex type
Also, so many main line WRs have gone down and I don't think we have seen the best from him yet
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Back healthy, only rostered in about 30-35% of most leagues, likely available on your WW
Has had a couple nice games early, the passing game is not even remotely set for pecking order
Had 3 TDs in 2 games, lot of competitive football left
IMHO, he will be a hot waiver move this week or the next one and this thread hasn't seen life in over a month, he's not on many folks radar right now
Get ahead of waivers, he's 6-4/215 and he's only been in the NFL 1 year, this is just his 2nd season out of TCU and he's learning a new offense again
I would give him a strong look if you need a WR
Click to expand...

I’ve got him in a contract league for $1 and a four-year contract.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Back healthy, only rostered in about 30-35% of most leagues, likely available on your WW
Has had a couple nice games early, the passing game is not even remotely set for pecking order
Had 3 TDs in 2 games, lot of competitive football left
IMHO, he will be a hot waiver move this week or the next one and this thread hasn't seen life in over a month, he's not on many folks radar right now
Get ahead of waivers, he's 6-4/215 and he's only been in the NFL 1 year, this is just his 2nd season out of TCU and he's learning a new offense again
I would give him a strong look if you need a WR
Click to expand...
I'm in the FBG Home League with a buncha hyenas constantly hovering over the waiver wire like it's a fresh caribou carcass.

I felt lucky to be able to grab Johnston last week.

I doubt it turns into anything but, here's to hoping you're right 👍
 
Chaka said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Back healthy, only rostered in about 30-35% of most leagues, likely available on your WW
Has had a couple nice games early, the passing game is not even remotely set for pecking order
Had 3 TDs in 2 games, lot of competitive football left
IMHO, he will be a hot waiver move this week or the next one and this thread hasn't seen life in over a month, he's not on many folks radar right now
Get ahead of waivers, he's 6-4/215 and he's only been in the NFL 1 year, this is just his 2nd season out of TCU and he's learning a new offense again
I would give him a strong look if you need a WR
Click to expand...
I'm in the FBG Home League with a buncha hyenas constantly hovering over the waiver wire like it's a fresh caribou carcass.

I felt lucky to be able to grab Johnston last week.

I doubt it turns into anything but, here's to hoping you're right 👍
Click to expand...
:lol:
 
Chaka said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Back healthy, only rostered in about 30-35% of most leagues, likely available on your WW
Has had a couple nice games early, the passing game is not even remotely set for pecking order
Had 3 TDs in 2 games, lot of competitive football left
IMHO, he will be a hot waiver move this week or the next one and this thread hasn't seen life in over a month, he's not on many folks radar right now
Get ahead of waivers, he's 6-4/215 and he's only been in the NFL 1 year, this is just his 2nd season out of TCU and he's learning a new offense again
I would give him a strong look if you need a WR
Click to expand...
I'm in the FBG Home League with a buncha hyenas constantly hovering over the waiver wire like it's a fresh caribou carcass.

I felt lucky to be able to grab Johnston last week.

I doubt it turns into anything but, here's to hoping you're right 👍
Click to expand...
One of the hyenas here, waiving hello.
 
TampaMike19 said:
Ministry of Pain said:
66 yd TD!
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I didnt see your post above but I Also picked him up as I dropped him to waivers a few weeks ago. Felt the Chargers uptick will lead to a possibly second half breakout for Johnston. Another blown coverage td though lol
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He checks a lot of the boxes and the Bolts try and keep Herbert under 30 passes a week if they can help it, they want to be a power run team and build off that
But as the season rolls along it feels like Herbert is getting more chances and QJ fits Harbaugh well, he doesn't need a lot of targets, he just needs a chance to go long and RZ TD targets
He's tall at 6-4 and they are now becoming a likely WC/Playoff team which will force the action more as the season continues.
This is a different team than what we saw winning games 17-15, losing games 17-15, they have a solid defense and enough talent at the skill slots to cause headaches for teams

Still think they are little vanilla and boring
Also not gonna play Cleveland every week, hard to bank on this most weeks. But I like his upside, can see him becoming #1WR on the Bolts
Palmer can't do these things and Ladd is still learning
 
joey said:
Chaka said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Back healthy, only rostered in about 30-35% of most leagues, likely available on your WW
Has had a couple nice games early, the passing game is not even remotely set for pecking order
Had 3 TDs in 2 games, lot of competitive football left
IMHO, he will be a hot waiver move this week or the next one and this thread hasn't seen life in over a month, he's not on many folks radar right now
Get ahead of waivers, he's 6-4/215 and he's only been in the NFL 1 year, this is just his 2nd season out of TCU and he's learning a new offense again
I would give him a strong look if you need a WR
Click to expand...
I'm in the FBG Home League with a buncha hyenas constantly hovering over the waiver wire like it's a fresh caribou carcass.

I felt lucky to be able to grab Johnston last week.

I doubt it turns into anything but, here's to hoping you're right 👍
Click to expand...
One of the hyenas here, waiving hello.
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STAY AWAY FROM MY FRESH KILL!!!!
 
Ryan Heath
Per @FantasyPtsData, Quentin Johnston has 30.8 fantasy points on busted coverages this year.

That's +53% more than any other player, and accounts for 44% of his total fantasy output.
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x.com

x.com x.com

Keenan Allen led the league with 34.8 fantasy points on busted coverages all of last season.
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x.com

x.com x.com
 
Faust said:
Hayden Winks
The most efficient WRs on a per-target basis per my expected points model:
1. Quentin Johnston (+65%)
2. A.J. Brown (+61%)
3. Ja'Marr Chase (+51%)
4. DeVonta Smith (46%)

Yes, you read that right.
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x.com

x.com x.com
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Probably a bit of small sample bias, as QJ only has 29 targets on the year, but can't argue that he's starting to show some of the talent that got him drafted in the 1st round. I do think it speaks more about how extremely well Herbert is playing and elevating his WR crew.
 
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Ministry of Pain said:
One of the best waiver wire pick ups for those who followed this guy
He's tall and fast, good catch % of targets and just continues to make plays and score TDs
Quickly ascending to must play status weekly in your Flex spot
He's getting close to a solid WR3 if you start 3-wide , 10-12 Team leagues
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6 TDs on 22 targets in 7 and 1/2 games. Somehow, he's been wide open on some of those TDs at 6'4".

I expect a few long passes on sideline patterns when he's covered 1-1, like in the first few games. Aside from last week vs TEN, Herbert and the LAC are passing more than early in the season.

Herbert can elevate receivers. That's why I held him when he got injured.
 
SoBeDad said:
I expect a few long passes on sideline patterns when he's covered 1-1, like in the first few games. Aside from last week vs TEN, Herbert and the LAC are passing more than early in the season.
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Like that. A good play by the CB prevented a long completion.
 
It would be nice if he was good enough to warrant more than four targets a game.

He's a nice complementary piece IRL and for fantasy teams but, ATM he still reads closer to Alvin Harper than any kind of breakout star.
 
Chaka said:
It would be nice if he was good enough to warrant more than four targets a game.

He's a nice complementary piece IRL and for fantasy teams but, ATM he still reads closer to Alvin Harper than any kind of breakout star.
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Johnson is tall, can jump (40+ vertical), but not elite fast (~4.5 40), and not the route runner McConkey is. BTW, Johnson was targeted 8 times today, but coverage was sticky. He was open on a crosser for a big gain, but Herbert was slightly off on the throw. I think Johnson is getting the best CB or safety help at times, but that could change as McConkey keeps delivering.

Herbert will keep Johnson relevant, like @Ministry of Pain says, a solid WR3.
 
Hes probably having as good a season as we could have hoped for. Also Herbert getting better week by week and McConkey developing well is going to help.

2025 WR2 and will probably have good draft value. In dynasty I am a buyer at the right price.
 
Chaka said:
It would be nice if he was good enough to warrant more than four targets a game.

He's a nice complementary piece IRL and for fantasy teams but, ATM he still reads closer to Alvin Harper than any kind of breakout star.
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How many completions did Herbert have in a 34-27 football game, less than 20 I believe
He and Ladd McConkey are quickly making a reliable duo for the Chargers who cleaned house
 
scothawk said:
Hes probably having as good a season as we could have hoped for. Also Herbert getting better week by week and McConkey developing well is going to help.

2025 WR2 and will probably have good draft value. In dynasty I am a buyer at the right price.
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And LAC is in the thick of a Playoff spot, just picked up a game on the Division leading Chiefs, I see more and more passes almost by necessity
You can't come up short on the back of JK Dobbins, you must put the ball in the hands of your $247M QB or whatever they paid him
Harbaugh has neutered the passing game since the start of the season
The real issue is play calling, not QJ's potential
 
Alex Insdorf
Chargers QB Justin Herbert on Quentin Johnston's drops: "That's the tough part of the NFL. He's a playmaker. He's done an incredible job all year."

"It's on all of us. It's on me, not just him."

"He's a fighter. You trust him. I'm gonna keep throwing him the ball."
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x.com

x.com x.com
 
Awful games happen (see: CeeDee Lamb Week 1 2022). His career drop rate already was high, and this games elevates it to terrible. Not a lot of good indications for the guy's future, but still definitely showing enough to be worth holding in dynasty. Not a career-shifting moment.
 
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