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WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (1 Viewer)

Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Been waiting for Lockett to break out for years now, and was hoping this was the year as I think he is undervalued at his ADP -- like @Dr. Octopus, I am tempering enthusiasm (my league awards return points where Lockett has had historic added value), but with this Baldwin injury, instead of being more excited about Lockett's opportunity, I'm actually more worried as Lockett may benefit more from having coverage attention diverted to the other side of the field. There is not much behind Baldwin or Lockett, and if Baldwin ails, it may actually be worse for Lockett than better.
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That's very possible. The biggest knock on Lockett in this thread so far has been either 1- barked up this tree before, not going to get excited again , and 2- the targets won't be there to make him significant

If Baldwin is hurt, the targets won't be vanishing and will likely mean an increase of targets to their healthier WR Lockett. Unless Baldwin has surgery or really hurt something, I don't expect him to miss any time. It sounds like a moderate injury he is hoping to just play through and having a tough time initially. Maybe they shut him down, but for now we have to assume Baldwin is going to play, but just not be 100%. 

I've been in agreement that Lockett could get 110 targets or more. JWB was mentioning that 90 was about where he had him. If Baldwin is not healthy, or misses time, I think it's practically a Lock-ett that Tyler gets over 110 targets. 

Then it just comes down to Lockett either making it or breaking it. And for that it's just a wait and see. 

Baldwin didn't really establish himself and have a coming out party until Golden Tate left to Detroit, and more opportunity came his way. Perhaps this is Lockett's opportunity

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Been waiting for Lockett to break out for years now, and was hoping this was the year as I think he is undervalued at his ADP -- like @Dr. Octopus, I am tempering enthusiasm (my league awards return points where Lockett has had historic added value), but with this Baldwin injury, instead of being more excited about Lockett's opportunity, I'm actually more worried as Lockett may benefit more from having coverage attention diverted to the other side of the field. There is not much behind Baldwin or Lockett, and if Baldwin ails, it may actually be worse for Lockett than better.
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It depends how much time Baldwin misses if any. I can't see how 50-60 more targets, if Baldwin misses the season, could be bad for Lockett. Not saying Baldwin will miss the season obviously.

 
FWIW:

From Analysis: Russell Wilson and Brandon Marshall shine, Germain Ifedi gets benched and more observations from Seahawks mock game:

RECEIVER

Two stood out — Jaron Brown and Marshall. Brown had six catches on six targets including a 43-yarder; and Marshall, who had just the one catch but showed again  he has the ability to be a big red-zone target the team sorely needs.

“He still has it,’’ Wilson said of the 34-year-old Marshall. Marshall was held to about a dozen snaps, though, as the team continues to ease him back in. But assuming he can increase his playing time without any injury setbacks he seems to be close to a lock to make the roster. “I think he has made a great first impression,” Carroll said.

...

TIGHT ENDS

There was one obvious standout here — former Washington Husky Will Dissly. With projected starter Ed Dickson remaining out, Dissly got a lot of work with the first-team offense and took advantage. Late in the first half, he caught a short pass on third down to keep the drive alive and then a 15-yarder to set up the Wilson-Reynolds touchdown on the next play.

Said Wilson later: “He’s been, in my opinion, one of the stars of camp. He keeps showing up.’’
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From Russell Wilson: Brandon Marshall’s still got it, RBs catching passes, more from Seahawks’ mock game:

The 60-yard score on the starting offense’s first play of the Seahawks’ annual mock game—then the second play, and the fourth, and the sixth and seventh—exemplified one of the biggest takeaways from Saturday’s game-like scrimmage five days before the preseason opener.

New offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is apparently going to have Wilson throwing to Carson and the running backs far more than Seattle has thrown to them in the Pete Carroll era. As long as those backs can finally stay healthy, that is.

...

Schottenheimer’s been splitting running backs all over formations and crossing them to free them into open spaces. That’s how Carson fooled the second-team defense on Saturday’s first play.

“They are trying to utilize us. They know we’ve all got good hands,” Carson said of this new running-backs-in-the-passing-game emphasis by the new coaching staff. “Scotty does a good job using us in the backfield and also using us as receivers.
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Wilson’s first TD throw was to Marshall. For the third time this week, the 34-year-old six-time Pro Bowl receiver coming off two surgeries schooled rookie converted cornerback Tre Flowers. Marshall deftly moved around Flowers as Wilson’s pass approached them in the end zone. Then Marshall snared the ball for what he’s done more than all but two active players in the NFL: score touchdowns.

“He still has it,” Wilson said.

Marshall remains somewhat limited working back from his surgeries. Yet he has already shown in a few days why he was a preeminent receiver in this league for about a decade, until his last fully healthy, 100-catch season. That was 2015 with the New York Jets.

“He’s a big-play guy,” Carroll said. “For the shots that he’s had...I mean, he’s probably got three or four touchdowns out of about seven throws (in camp scrimmaging so far).

“He’s making big things happen. He’s REAL savvy. He’s got a lot of stuff. He’s got a lot of game to him. Russ knows it. Nate (Carroll, the receivers coach) knows it. Schotty knows it.

“He’s made a great first impression.”
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Just Win Baby said:
I have 325 targets left for the WRs. Assuming Marshall does not make the final roster and assuming no major injuries to these players, I could see those breaking down like this:

  • Baldwin: 125
  • Lockett: 90
  • Brown: 45
  • Darboh: 35
  • Others: 30
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Without rehashing the TEs and RBs, some stuff has happened since I posted this 3 weeks ago.

Baldwin has a knee issue and has been held out of practice. He will supposedly be ready to go week 1, but I have to assume he may be eased in at first and/or the knee could bother him. So I think it is appropriate to reduce his targets.

Lockett currently has a sore toe. I assume it is no big deal and he will be fine for the regular season.

Darboh has missed a lot of time due to injury in recent weeks, and his roster spot is in jeopardy. That said, it's hard to give up on a 3rd round pick in year 2.

Marshall has been playing very well and looks like he will make the roster and slot in as WR3 or WR4, with Brown, who has also been playing very well.

So if I had to divide up 325 WR targets right now, I would project this:

  • Baldwin: 110
  • Lockett: 85
  • Marshall: 60
  • Brown: 50
  • Others: 20
:popcorn:  

 
Just Win Baby said:
Without rehashing the TEs and RBs, some stuff has happened since I posted this 3 weeks ago.

Baldwin has a knee issue and has been held out of practice. He will supposedly be ready to go week 1, but I have to assume he may be eased in at first and/or the knee could bother him. So I think it is appropriate to reduce his targets.

Lockett currently has a sore toe. I assume it is no big deal and he will be fine for the regular season.

Darboh has missed a lot of time due to injury in recent weeks, and his roster spot is in jeopardy. That said, it's hard to give up on a 3rd round pick in year 2.

Marshall has been playing very well and looks like he will make the roster and slot in as WR3 or WR4, with Brown, who has also been playing very well.

So if I had to divide up 325 WR targets right now, I would project this:

  • Baldwin: 110
  • Lockett: 85
  • Marshall: 60
  • Brown: 50
  • Others: 20
:popcorn:  
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I'll take the bait......lol.

So You are decreasing Baldwin's targets but not giving any of them to Lockett. In fact you are decreasing Lockett's targets as well?

 
Milkman said:
I'll take the bait......lol.

So You are decreasing Baldwin's targets but not giving any of them to Lockett. In fact you are decreasing Lockett's targets as well?
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Correct. Because I introduced Marshall, who is playing very well.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Correct. Because I introduced Marshall, who is playing very well.
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Can't see how Lockett's targets don't go up if Baldwin's numbers are going down. He's Seattle's best play maker.

Marshall is probably WR4 on this team. Targets numbers for the last 3 years for the 4th most targeted WR on the team has been 13,36,9. With all do respect 110 targets split between Marshall and Brown would be completely out of character for Seattle. Even if Marshall is the 3rd most targeted WR on the team then Brown's not getting anywhere near 50 targets. At least in the past it hasn't happened.

Baldwin 115

Lockett 115

Brown or Marshall 65

Brown or Marshall 15

others 15

The 4th WR just doesn't get on the field enough to get the targets you are projecting.  

 
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Maybe you think Marshall is the #1 WR on this team and will command more targets than Lockett until Baldwin comes back to full health.......but I would think the 4th option on Seattle's team still won't get 50 targets unless Baldwin misses a significant amount of time.

 
Milkman said:
Can't see how Lockett's targets don't go up if Baldwin's numbers are going down. He's Seattle's best play maker.

Marshall is probably WR4 on this team. Targets numbers for the last 3 years for the 4th most targeted WR on the team has been 13,36,9. With all do respect 110 targets split between Marshall and Brown would be completely out of character for Seattle. Even if Marshall is the 3rd most targeted WR on the team then Brown's not getting anywhere near 50 targets. At least in the past it hasn't happened.

Baldwin 115

Lockett 115

Brown or Marshall 65

Brown or Marshall 15

others 15

The 4th WR just doesn't get on the field enough to get the targets you are projecting.  
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Define Seattle's best play maker. He is their best deep threat for sure. But what about TDs?

Lockett is not a red zone threat at all, especially not if Marshall is healthy and playing well. Lockett has 9 receiving TDs in 3 seasons, 3 red zone TDs in 3 seasons, and just 1 red zone TD in the past 2 seasons.

You are correct that Seattle has not typically given 110 targets to their #3 and #4 WRs, but:

  1. Seattle WR3+WR4 had 84 targets last season with a much less talented WR4 (Darboh) and 102 targets in 2016 in the only season in which the WR group got close to as many targets (320) as I am projecting (325). The next highest total number of WR targets in a season in Wilson's career was 273 in 2014. So you are comparing apples and oranges.
  2. It is also true that Seattle has not had #3 and #4 WRs that are as talented as Brown and Marshall in the Wilson era. You might argue their #3 WRs have been as good or better, but their #4 has typically been an afterthought.
So the only previous season in Wilson's career that could be viewed as somewhat predictive on this subject is 2016... and that season supports my position.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Define Seattle's best play maker. He is their best deep threat for sure. But what about TDs?

Lockett is not a red zone threat at all, especially not if Marshall is healthy and playing well. Lockett has 9 receiving TDs in 3 seasons, 3 red zone TDs in 3 seasons, and just 1 red zone TD in the past 2 seasons.

You are correct that Seattle has not typically given 110 targets to their #3 and #4 WRs, but:

  1. Seattle WR3+WR4 had 84 targets last season with a much less talented WR4 (Darboh) and 102 targets in 2016 in the only season in which the WR group got close to as many targets (320) as I am projecting (325). The next highest total number of WR targets in a season in Wilson's career was 273 in 2014. So you are comparing apples and oranges.
  2. It is also true that Seattle has not had #3 and #4 WRs that are as talented as Brown and Marshall in the Wilson era. You might argue their #3 WRs have been as good or better, but their #4 has typically been an afterthought.
So the only previous season in Wilson's career that could be viewed as somewhat predictive on this subject is 2016... and that season supports my position.
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The 4th option got 36 targets that year not 50. If Baldwin is getting 10 less and the 4th option isn't on the field enough to get 50 targets...... where are the other 25 targets going? 

Starting TE probably isn't getting 95 targets either but we can leave that alone. 

I guess I'm just curious how one of them is going to command 3 targets a game on the sideline. 

Anyway thanks for the response. 

 
Milkman said:
The 4th option got 36 targets that year not 50. If Baldwin is getting 10 less and the 4th option isn't on the field enough to get 50 targets...... where are the other 25 targets going? 

Starting TE probably isn't getting 95 targets either but we can leave that alone. 

I guess I'm just curious how one of them is going to command 3 targets a game on the sideline. 

Anyway thanks for the response. 
Click to expand...
Yes, their 4th targeted WR got 36 targets... in 15 games... and their 3rd targeted WR got 66 targets... in 15 games. As I said, 102 targets. Fine, if you want to say 50 targets is too much for WR4, then shift 14 of them to WR3 to make it 74 and 36, compared to 66 and 36 in 2016. :shrug:  

I notice you did not respond to my comment about your claim that Lockett is Seattle's "best play maker". Do you not have any response?

As for the bolded, I'm not projecting any player to get targets while on the sideline. Not sure what your point is there.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Yes, their 4th targeted WR got 36 targets... in 15 games... and their 3rd targeted WR got 66 targets... in 15 games. As I said, 102 targets. Fine, if you want to say 50 targets is too much for WR4, then shift 14 of them to WR3 to make it 74 and 36, compared to 66 and 36 in 2016. :shrug:  

I notice you did not respond to my comment about your claim that Lockett is Seattle's "best play maker". Do you not have any response?

As for the bolded, I'm not projecting any player to get targets while on the sideline. Not sure what your point is there.
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How about we shift those 14 to Lockett.........

I think if Baldwin is banged up not up to speed Lockett is Seattle's best playmaker. I'm good with that. 

 
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3653/brandon-marshall

ESPN's Brady Henderson projects the Seahawks to release Brandon Marshall.

Marshall has actually been drawing strong reviews in practice, but Henderson believes the Seahawks will opt to go younger before possibly re-signing Marshall after Week 1, when his $1.105 million contract would no longer be guaranteed. Marshall is probably most closely battling Amara Darboh. Aug 28 - 1:56 PM

Not sure if he'll be cut or not but at the least I think it's safe to downgrade him from taking over the #2 WR in Seattle from Lockett. 

 
Chaka said:
Really? WR61 essentially means undraftable in most 12 team 16 round leagues. I'm not super high on him and I don't have my draft board in front of me right now but that seems really low.
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Leroy Hoard said:
My latest adp list has him as the #61 wr. I like him at that spot, but recent events should move him up somewhat.

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/wr.php
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Harris Football has him at WR67 in PPR.

Went 9.12 in our full PPR draft Sunday (NG took him, & since he's a FBG, he probably sees this thread on page one everyday.)

Don't we kind of know who Tyler Lockett is by now? Three full seasons, 16 G each, mediocre production, fantastic elite returner.

Why will he become something different this year?

ETA: oh wait, we give 0.04 per yard (e.g. 25 yrd = 1 pt) for all KR/PR so that explains why he went in the 9th

 
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BobbyLayne said:
Harris Football has him at WR67 in PPR.

Went 9.12 in our full PPR draft Sunday (NG took him, & since he's a FBG, he probably sees this thread on page one everyday.)

Don't we kind of know who Tyler Lockett is by now? Three full seasons, 16 G each, mediocre production, fantastic elite returner.

Why will he become something different this year?
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Hmm...gonna go with Neil Patrick and Neil Gorsuch. I didn't realize they were big into magic football. 

Again I don't have my board in front of me but it still seems like a low ranking.

I am not sure we know who he is entirely if only because we haven't seen him without Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson for any length of time (and, apparently, a season long diminished Baldwin). He may be exactly who he has been all along but a lot has changed, particularly his opportunities.  Not gonna reach for him because of what we know but it is tough to think of 60 guys with better opportunity to succeed.

 
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Chaka said:
Hmm...gonna go with Neil Patrick and Neisl Gorsuch. I didn't realize they were big into magic football. 

Again I don't have my board in front of me but it still seems like a low ranking.

I am not sure we know who he is entirely if only because we haven't seen him without Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson for any length of time (and, apparently, a season long diminished Baldwin). He may be exactly who he has been all along but a lot has changed, particularly his opportunities.  Not gonna reach for him because of what we know but it is tough to think of 60 guys with better opportunity to succeed.
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He has been WR64 and WR57 the last two seasons so it doesn't seem entirely crazy to say he's WR61/WR67 this year.

 
BobbyLayne said:
He has been WR64 and WR57 the last two seasons so it doesn't seem entirely crazy to say he's WR61/WR67 this year.
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I totally understand but the last two seasons Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson we're on the team. 

Those guys weren't exactly world beaters with Seattle but who replaced them? There are going to be increased opportunities in the passing game, possibly even more coming from a hobbled Baldwin. I think the sum of that info warrants a reevaluation of Lockett's potential.

 
Chaka said:
I totally understand but the last two seasons Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson we're on the team. 

Those guys weren't exactly world beaters with Seattle but who replaced them? There are going to be increased opportunities in the passing game, possibly even more coming from a hobbled Baldwin. I think the sum of that info warrants a reevaluation of Lockett's potential.
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It may be more of a reevaluation of Wilson. I thought this offense might score a lot of points since that the defense has went in the tank but I'm starting to doubt that. 

 
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The Seahawks should be awful, but I'm not sure how that shakes out in the passing game. I bought into the Lockett hype a couple of years ago but it's been pretty painful holding onto him in dynasty. I could see Seattle passing a lot, but I could also see a terrible offense generally that tries to focus on the run and stalls out a lot of drives. I could also see Lockett sharing targets with a bunch of players like Moore, Jaron Brown or whoever else is there - you know, a lot of guys with 4-35 type games and not much else. 

 
Chaka said:
Leroy Hoard said:
My latest adp list has him as the #61 wr. I like him at that spot, but recent events should move him up somewhat.

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/wr.php
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Really? WR61 essentially means undraftable in most 12 team 16 round leagues. I'm not super high on him and I don't have my draft board in front of me right now but that seems really low.
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FWIW, I just checked:

  • FBG consensus of 10 rankers who posted rankings since Sunday is WR54. I believe FBG rankings are non-PPR, which helps Lockett.
  • FantasyPros PPR consensus of 88 rankers, not including any FBG rankers, is WR52.
That said, if there were projections behind all of those, I suspect the spread between WR52 and WR61 would be very small.

 
Milkman said:
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3653/brandon-marshall

ESPN's Brady Henderson projects the Seahawks to release Brandon Marshall.

Marshall has actually been drawing strong reviews in practice, but Henderson believes the Seahawks will opt to go younger before possibly re-signing Marshall after Week 1, when his $1.105 million contract would no longer be guaranteed. Marshall is probably most closely battling Amara Darboh. Aug 28 - 1:56 PM

Not sure if he'll be cut or not but at the least I think it's safe to downgrade him from taking over the #2 WR in Seattle from Lockett. 
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I trust the writers at the Field Gulls blog more than ESPN. From Seahawks receiver group looks richer than anyone expected:

The reality is that with Baldwin, Lockett, Brown, and Moore, Wilson should have enough to be able to run Brian Schottenheimer’s offense and spread the ball around (I actually wonder if Lockett starts to fade behind some of the other guys based on a career of inconsistency, or if this pushes him to become something greater as he enters year four, like Richardson did), but the “must-keep” breakouts at receiver didn’t stop there. Because Brandon Marshall seems almost certain to start at this point...

After his signing was brushed off by most as a “veteran camp body” ... Marshall has seemed to be as effective now as you would have expected him to be a couple years ago with the New York Jets. He’s the biggest receiver and potentially the best run blocker in the group, so Marshall’s value is twofold in that regard, threefold if you count his 12 years of experience, and fourfold if you think he’ll work that much harder to end a career-long playoff drought.

Baldwin. Lockett. Marshall. Brown. Moore.

It’s hard to not feel better about those five than I’ve felt about any Seahawks receiver group going into the season since perhaps Carroll took over.
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From A position-by-position overview of the Seahawks after 3 preseason games:

Wide receiver

Locks: Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jaron Brown, David Moore, Brandon Marshall

Likely cut: Cyril Grayson, Caleb Scott, Malik Turner, Marvin Bracy

Still competing: Keenan Reynolds, Marcus Johnson, Damore’ea Stringfellow, Amara Darboh

Everything we have heard and seen during August would indicate five receiver spots are set. If there’s a sixth spot, it has four players competing for it. Despite missing the majority of the preseason, Darboh has the biggest upside and should be viewed as the most likely to stick around if a sixth receiver is kept.
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YMMV

 
BobbyLayne said:
Don't we kind of know who Tyler Lockett is by now? Three full seasons, 16 G each, mediocre production, fantastic elite returner.
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Remember he was recovering from a pretty horrific injury last year. His rookie year was actually really good, just light on volume. 

I really don't think anyone can claim to know what he'd be if he got starter's snaps and 110 targets. Increased volume almost always leads to decreased production, but through his first two years he had 135 targets which he turned into 91 receptions, 1261 yards, and 7 TDs. Nobody should be surprised if he turns 110 targets into 66/924/5 (60% catch, 14 ypr). But nobody should be surprised if Jaron Brown steals the job and has that stat line. Or if they cannibalize each other's targets and neither is worth a redraft roster spot.

Lockett's first 3 years are much better than Paul Richardson's first 3 years and yet Richardson was able to parlay a decent 4th year into a starter's contract for a new team. So I think there is reason for optimism for Lockett. IMO, he's a nice, cheap dynasty stash and a decent redraft flyer. 

 
Buck Bradcanon said:
Wow.  Huge news for this his prospects this year IMO.
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And for his dynasty value. They let Richardson walk for $8M per year ($16.5M guaranteed) and gave Lockett a contract in the $10.7M-$12.7M per year range ($20M guaranteed). Pretty huge, IMO.

For redraft he's competing against Jaron Brown (1 year $2.75M) and Marshall (1 year $1.1M) for targets.

Very  :popcorn:

 
CentralPA said:
With Baldwin probably not being 100% all year this smells of a breakout year.
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I hope you're right. I didn't hear anyone say a good thing about him all offseason. Did nothing in preseason and was invisible otas. 

The hawks make a lot of very poor moves which is why they've went downhill so fast which makes it really hard for me to trust them. Looks like another terrible decision.

 
voiceofunreason said:
I hope you're right. I didn't hear anyone say a good thing about him all offseason. Did nothing in preseason and was invisible otas. 

The hawks make a lot of very poor moves which is why they've went downhill so fast which makes it really hard for me to trust them. Looks like another terrible decision.
Click to expand...
Heard nothing but good things.  Has looked electric in training camp and is finally healthy.

 
CentralPA said:
Heard nothing but good things.  Has looked electric in training camp and is finally healthy.
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I hope you're right. But I think Seattle just overpaid for a return guy that gets 600 yards a year. I read a lot of ota stuff and googled him a few times and couldn't find one thing about him looking good as a receiver. 

 
Wow. Guy’s done nothing. Has been breakout candidate for a while. Hope seabirds know what they’re doing

 
voiceofunreason said:
I hope you're right. But I think Seattle just overpaid for a return guy that gets 600 yards a year. I read a lot of ota stuff and googled him a few times and couldn't find one thing about him looking good as a receiver. 
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Based on a lack of beat writer fluff pieces? You see three ~600 yard seasons in a row to start his career and assume that's his ceiling? He averaged less than 70 targets a season, too, so are you assuming that they are going to keep giving him 65-70 targets a year with this contract or that he'll only put up 600 yards on 100+ targets?

I get some skepticism but I wouldn't let a lack of fluff pieces deter you from taking a shot on him. Matt Harmon tracked his rookie season and came away very impressed. Led to a lot of hype for him going into the 2016 season. The OL really struggled to keep Wilson upright that year (Wilson's worst fantasy season since he was a rookie) and then this year Lockett was coming back from a gruesome injury. So I really don't think scanning his career stats and extrapolating is an accurate way to assess this guy. He's no sure thing to take the next step, but he's got more upside than the box scores suggest.

 
Milkman said:
That's a lot of money for a #2/#3 WR getting less than 90 targets a year! Lol
Click to expand...
Diggs averages 136 targets per 16 games played as a WR1/2
Lockett averages 70 targets per 16 games played as a WR 3/4

Diggs was paid 80 million dollars with 40 guaranteed
Lockett got 37.8 million with 20 guaranteed

Seems pretty comparable if we are going to talk about price per target... 

I agree that it's a lot of money, but people have used Diggs' and Cooks' contracts to justify that the team "has plans for them." So why is this any different? Seems like it could end up being a very team friendly contract if Lockett finally blooms into the WR he can be this year. If he flops then this is without a doubt an over-paid contract, but same could be said for Diggs if his groin continues to act up every 6 games. 

 
voiceofunreason said:
Graham, Harvin, etc. Yeah they’ve made a lot of bad decisions and have very little talent left because of it.
Click to expand...
How is graham a bad decision? 
Seattle traded an aging center and a 1st round pick in 2015 who has already spent on year on IR, was traded to Miami for a 5th round pick. 
How is that a bad decision... Graham was also IRed for his first year with Seattle but then went on to have 2 consecutive pro bowl seasons. 

Yeah... a failed 1st rounder for a pro bowl TE is a bad decision :confused:  

 
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