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WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LawFitz
- Start date
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I traded Baker Mayfield for him earlier. what a sucker. this guys going to be a star
Any data on how AZ defends slot WRs?
AZ seems like a run funnel defense looking at overall points against. Pretty decent against the pass, lousy against the run. However, P. Peterson wouldn't cover the slot I'd think.
Last year in two games against AZ, Baldwin had 5-95-0 and 4-90-2. Lockett meanwhile was 1-16-0 and 3-25-0.
Ugh if Baldwin back and getting full snaps in the slot.
If Baldwin is out or limited, this could be a good spot for Lockett. Again.
AZ seems like a run funnel defense looking at overall points against. Pretty decent against the pass, lousy against the run. However, P. Peterson wouldn't cover the slot I'd think.
Last year in two games against AZ, Baldwin had 5-95-0 and 4-90-2. Lockett meanwhile was 1-16-0 and 3-25-0.
Ugh if Baldwin back and getting full snaps in the slot.
If Baldwin is out or limited, this could be a good spot for Lockett. Again.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
There is and has always been a lil hesitancy with Lockett? I became aware of him a couple years ago and wondered if he was a gadget player or a true WR? He has gone in and out of my lineups ever since. I start him in a Flex in one league every week so far. He's done well. I ask myself, 'what's not to like?'
Here I am again in another league - had him - dropped him - someone else picked him up and dropped him again. Short bench only 4. I have one spot left - TJ Yeldon, waiting to confirm that Fournette will definitely play. MyFBG tells me he's the next best up.
He's legit, right? lol
Here I am again in another league - had him - dropped him - someone else picked him up and dropped him again. Short bench only 4. I have one spot left - TJ Yeldon, waiting to confirm that Fournette will definitely play. MyFBG tells me he's the next best up.
He's legit, right? lol
Holy crap, I couldn't play with 4 bench spots. Would drive me crazy. But yeah, I think signs point to Lockett being legit, however, it's going to be a little dicey when Baldwin comes back. Lockett hasn't exactly been a target hog in his absence, despite playing 94% of the snaps. His current pace of big play TDs will inevitably slow down and that will lead to some very disappointing weeks since he won't have the volume to prop up his PPR totals.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I play with 5 bench spots, but there is no league where Lockett should be on the WW IMO. He is WR 13 in my league (return yards). Without that he would be WR23, which is still startable every week. If we went to 4 bench, there is no way Lockett would be close to the chopping block.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Here's my 4 bench players - Wentz, Edelman, Ingram, and Yeldon (waiting on Fournette absolutely playing). Someone in our league convinced us that 4 bench players would make it interesting - lol to say the least.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah I think it's a risk but I liked what I saw with Baker Mayfield and I'm not sold on Lockett anymore. I was one of his biggest fans but he just doesn't seem capable of carving out a bigger role.
With 3 TDs in 3 games on limited targets this seemed like a good time to cash in for me. I've been fighting what I'm seeing out there all year. Lol
It's a parity mechanism. Allows bad teams to constantly fill gaps with decent players since not all decent players can be rostered. I agree with Dan, though. Lockett should be rostered even in shallow leagues. However, the only reason he's WR23 is because he's had two long TDs. Counting on that continuing is pretty optimistic. As a fellow owner, I'm hoping for an increase in targets to offset the impending decrease in TDs, as I don't expect him to finish the year with 16 TDs on 64 rec.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Agreed, although it isn't impossible. So far this year they have only thrown 50% of the targets to WRs. Last year with Graham at TE they threw 55% to WRs. With the loss of Graham and addition of no one of note at TE, I'd expect that ratio to tilt towards WR, not away. Additionally, they are currently passing at a lower rate than last year. And for some reason Marshall has 18 targets to Lockett's 17.Dr. Octopus said:
another great week. Lockett is a rare fantasy comodity. has been producing WR1/2 numbers each week, on pace for a 1000 yard season, yet the fantasy community treats him like a WR4, myself included. Would love to deal him but there is likely still no market because no one trusts this is real
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oddsbodkins
Footballguy
I was able to package him in a larger deal for Thielen. Not bad for a FA pickup after the draft.
I refused to believe.
And I dropped him.
With Baldwin getting only 1 target, maybe it's time to believe. Probably too late for me.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think he is devalued because despite his production, he does it on few targets. Most folks like target hounds, and rightfully so, but Baldwin - who when healthy IS a target hound - is not being targeted much as of now. If you own him, just ride the wave while it lasts.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
On the one hand, I agree it seems unlikely that he will maintain this kind of efficiency the rest of the year.
On the other hand, it seems quite unlikely that Seattle's pass attempts will remain this low. Wilson is on pace to throw about 115 fewer passes than each of the last two years. However he was on pace to do the same each of the last two years. He threw 101 and 115 passes in September each of the last two years, and by November/December he was throwing ~150 passes per month.
It seems like Seattle starts every year post-Lynch thinking they can be a smashmouth team that throws only when they have to, only to realize half way through that they aren't that team anymore and their best chance of getting into the playoffs is just to unleash Wilson and sling the rock all over the place. They're 2-3 so far this year so I'm guessing that realization should be coming soon this year.
So while it seems likely that Lockett's efficiency will drop, it also seems plausible that his targets could increase going forward.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
I was just getting ready to post this exact same thing.
Sesttle always seems to start out slow and then starts passing like crazy and gets good.
Lockett is about the only part of the Seattle passing offense I do want. WR15 in my league prior to tonight's game
Milkman
Footballguy
Not unless Baldwin takes a backseat. It's a solid scenario you have there but for Lockett's targets to go up much he would have to be the team's #1. I mean i could see a small increase if they throw more and Lockett is the #2 behind Baldwin but any significant increase isn't happening.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
FWIW I dont blame anyone trying to trade him, as I've floated him in a package to a few others for an upgrade at wr, but I dont expect him to finish outside of wr2 status. Seattle is going to pass the ball. and they are going to have passing TDs. and they are going to go to someone. So far Lockett has been making plays. At some point it becomes a trend and not a fluke and I think we are far past that line
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I have seen most of the Seattle games this year. Lockett seems to have this ability on double moves to just leave corners in the dust.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Hes never averaged 6-7 targets a game. 2018 he is finally a starter and is close to 6 targets. prior to 2018 his career average was in the 4.4 range.
Hes been playing with a pro bowl TE who gobbled up targets.
I understand the whole crap on the guy you just traded because you hope you dont look like a fool (that seems to be what people do in the Shark Pool), but Lockett is finally playing up to his potential. He wont be a 140 target a year guy, especially with Baldwin there. but he was drafted well into double digit rounds for everyone and he is in high end wr2 territory right now. I dont see him finishing outside of the top 25. and for a guy going as a wr4/5 about 2 months ago that's not a bad reward on investment
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Milkman
Footballguy
It has nothing to do with me trading him. It has to do with what I saw that made me trade him.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I regretfully sold but I'm happy with what I got.
Lockett and Yeldon for a 2019 1st, likely mid 1/3, possibly late.
Lockett and Yeldon were throw ins on deals I did this summer, so I feel good cashing in on them for a 1st rounder.
I still own in redraft/keeper
Lockett and Yeldon for a 2019 1st, likely mid 1/3, possibly late.
Lockett and Yeldon were throw ins on deals I did this summer, so I feel good cashing in on them for a 1st rounder.
I still own in redraft/keeper
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
All this guy does is score TD's. I have him as my WR4 and I've been trying to deal him in a package for weeks and no one wants him. I guess he will just keep scoring every week on my bench.
LOL I drafted him as a breakout candidate. Then he broke out (kinda - obviously very TD dependent with consistently low targets), and I still dropped him.
Another team picked him up for a week or two, now he's sitting on the WW.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Wide Receivers with 7 or more TD's this year
- Brown (10)
- Hill(9)
- Adams(9)
- Hopkins(7)
- Thielen(7)
- Thomas(7)
- Ridley(7)
- Lockett(7)
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Hes on my bench too thanks to Chubb and MVS.
No one wants him. Was able to unload him and Yeldon in one league for a 1st before the Hyde trade.
He got a lot of targets today. that was my only worry. if that continues he will continue to be a great steal
No one wants him. Was able to unload him and Yeldon in one league for a 1st before the Hyde trade.
He got a lot of targets today. that was my only worry. if that continues he will continue to be a great steal
jtp1982
Footballguy
Agree. And Wilson seems to key on him in clutch drives. But watching last night you really got the feeling a healthy Baldwin puts a ceiling on Lockett with relatively low number of offensive plays Seattle runs each week.FreeBaGeL said:
Still a solid flex with good matchups though IMO
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Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Another week, another TD. Exactly what I needed with Tyreek on bye.
jtp1982
Footballguy
I don’t draft to win with my WRs. I pick them late and I just need them to have solid floors with upside.
So I’m loving Lockett. The target numbers in that offense are scary but it’s been working to well for too long for that to matter. He basically has a 10 point floor with 14-20 point upside in my .5 ppr league and is my ideal WR2.
probably going to start him at flex from here on out know that the James White fantasy bonanza is winding down.
So I’m loving Lockett. The target numbers in that offense are scary but it’s been working to well for too long for that to matter. He basically has a 10 point floor with 14-20 point upside in my .5 ppr league and is my ideal WR2.
probably going to start him at flex from here on out know that the James White fantasy bonanza is winding down.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Keep starting Golladay over him. Keep regretting it.
jtp1982
Footballguy
I had similar concerns in that Lockett seems to get 25-50% of his fantasy production a lot of weeks late in the 4th when Wilson goes off script to get a close win.
But SF is one of those teams that tends to give up WR TDs, and obviously Lockett’s the Seattle TD WR guy.
Supposedly he’s drawing Richard Sherman this week. With all due respect to Sherman, he is slow now. Really slow.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I bought back onto this train in the league where I sold him. Bought for a mid 2nd (7-8, hopefully lower!) and Samuel (who was going to be cut next spring at draft time... I have no choice). So it was ultimately for a mid 2nd. I'll take that
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jtp1982
Footballguy
Keep in mind when you’re reading the analysts downgrade Lockett for next week because “he only had two targets” today and it’s Minnesota’s D :
- the low target share was probably because Lockett had Sherman on him for a lot of his routes. Sherman’s not what he used to be he reads plays well and since the rest of the SF secondary doesn’t it’s just lower risk to avoid him. Most SF opponents have and Seattle did too. Lockett’s big play came when he had a LB on him.
Obviously high target numbers aren’t a thing with this offense but 2 for 1 like today is not Lockett’s new normal.
- I’m still undecided about the matchup for next week. The biggest limiting factor for Lockett each week IMO is game script. Lockett goes off the more Seattle has to match scores with a good offense and rely on Wilson’s judgement and playmaking skills in the 4th quarter, because he chooses Lockett more than the offensive scheme tends to.
Minnesota has a great D but they also could fit that description of an opponent Seattle will be forced to play in a way that sets Lockett up well. Either way, it’s not an easy call on Lockett next week and I’m sure after today’s 2 targets and a tough pass D next week that will be the assumption.
- the low target share was probably because Lockett had Sherman on him for a lot of his routes. Sherman’s not what he used to be he reads plays well and since the rest of the SF secondary doesn’t it’s just lower risk to avoid him. Most SF opponents have and Seattle did too. Lockett’s big play came when he had a LB on him.
Obviously high target numbers aren’t a thing with this offense but 2 for 1 like today is not Lockett’s new normal.
- I’m still undecided about the matchup for next week. The biggest limiting factor for Lockett each week IMO is game script. Lockett goes off the more Seattle has to match scores with a good offense and rely on Wilson’s judgement and playmaking skills in the 4th quarter, because he chooses Lockett more than the offensive scheme tends to.
Minnesota has a great D but they also could fit that description of an opponent Seattle will be forced to play in a way that sets Lockett up well. Either way, it’s not an easy call on Lockett next week and I’m sure after today’s 2 targets and a tough pass D next week that will be the assumption.
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jtp1982
Footballguy
Minnesota CB Tray Waynes in the concussion protocol. Last time this happened he missed the next game. Xavier Rhodes played on a bad hammy against NE and was in for every other series.
Hard to see Seattle running all over the Vikings. If next week’s Minnesota secondary looks like this weeks did by the end of the game Lockett will be a must play for me.
Will be watching Rhodes practice participation this week. He’ll play, I just want some idea of how banged up he is going into the game.
Hard to see Seattle running all over the Vikings. If next week’s Minnesota secondary looks like this weeks did by the end of the game Lockett will be a must play for me.
Will be watching Rhodes practice participation this week. He’ll play, I just want some idea of how banged up he is going into the game.
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Chaka
Footballguy
He's pretty much a must start at this point. Sure he doesn't get a ton of targets buy he catches 78% of his passes at over 16 yards per. That is insane.
He is WR17 on the season in my league and certainly higher in non-ppr leagues.
One of the best draft values for owners this season.
He is WR17 on the season in my league and certainly higher in non-ppr leagues.
One of the best draft values for owners this season.
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