Your outlook on A Jones vs AJ Dillon (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

I looked this up and Jones was inactive for 2 games. In the first one Dillon had 6 targets 6 receptions vs the Vikings in a close somewhat high scoring game.

The 2nd one was the last week of the season vs the Lions where Dillon had 1 target.

His rushing attempts did not really increase in either game and I'm guessing it was just because of game script that he had more receptions in the game vs the Vikings.

The last game of the year they maybe didnt use him more as they were resting players for the playoffs.

 

[Deamon]

Not a single person talks about what if Aj Dillon goes down- what happens to Jones stock? It’s always the other way around when people talk about Aaron Jones going down lol

I think it's assumed that if either goes down, the other will probably have about the same production. Jones goes down, Dillon becomes a top 5-10 RB. Dillon goes down, Jones becomes a top 5-10 RB (probably a bit higher). They both get a boost, but Dillon the bigger boost obviously, even if not QUITE as high overall as Jones.

 

[Deamon]

It feels like both are being drafted at their ceiling

How is that their ceiling? They both eclipsed it last year and both played every game together except for 1 week.

JONES:
Last year finished RB7- This year ADP RB11

DILLON:
Last year finished RB20- This year ADP RB22

@TripItUp really curious your thoughts on the above. Are you expecting a significant drop in production from last year for them? Are you suggesting that this year's CEILING is worse than what they accomplished last year together?

 

[Jewell]

Talk of them being 1A and 1B

To be precise, Matt LaFleur referred to Jones and Dillon as "1A and 1A" which, of course, is likely just coach talk, but could potentially mean an even larger share of the pie for Dillon than expected.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur calls Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon running backs '1A and 1A'​

 

[jurrassic]

I drafted Dillon. I liked the baseline better for him, than other rbs in that area. If Jones plays split out more, Dillon has the chance to be on the field more often than last year. I think the Packers offense will need to move everything through the run game. The play action is more important this year than ever before.

That said, I think Jones will have the better season. One thing I considered, drafting him in a keeper league, is the likelihood Jones will be released next year. It’s something that has been a consistent belief, by a few local beat writers. Jones cap hit goes from $5.9 million this year to $20 million next year. He also turns 29 in December of next year.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

Dillon is Ingram, Jones is Kamara. Prefer Jones in every format since targets are crazy more valuable than runs. Dillon is best used to punish defenders- Jones is best used in space. Hopefully LaFleur sees that .

I think Jones is in for a monster year and is going to deliver in PPR leagues. Dillon will do fine but Jones should see many more touches.

I get a bit skeptical when I see people predicting that Aaron Jones will catch 80 balls this year because of the WR situation when the most targets he's ever had in a season is 68 and the most receptions is 52. For comparison, the least amount of targets Kamara has ever had was last year at 67 when he was dinged up and their QB situation was sketchy at best. Jones definitely has some receiving ability but he isn't the 100+ target back that Kamara is. I think they both just cap each other's ceilings pretty significantly. Yes you can get small value out of Aaron Jones if he is drafted as RB 10 or 11 and returns RB 7 value that that isn't exactly league winning stuff. In my most recent draft he went right in the middle of Barkley, Swift, and Kamara and I feel that unless Dillon goes down every one of those have a higher ceiling than he does and have top 5 potential. Last year Dillon took a bigger piece of the pie as the season went on. If he'd have had the same number of touches in the first half of the season as he did in the second then Aaron Jones would not have finished nearly as high. I think that last season's finish may be his ceiling unless Dillon goes down and any increased opportunities that come to the RB's due to Adam's target share going away will be offset by decreased efficiency in the offense. I think GB's offense will take a pretty significant step back this year and that will help cap the GB player ceilings as well.

 

[joffer]

Priest/LJ

 

[Deamon]

I get a bit skeptical when I see people predicting that Aaron Jones will catch 80 balls this year because of the WR situation when the most targets he's ever had in a season is 68 and the most receptions is 52

Ya maybe 80 was a bit much.

But he averaged 3.5 receptions/game last year, and if he averages 1 more catch per game this year, then he's pretty much there at 80.

 

[Sasgaard]

I think one of them needs to be injured for the other one to be really a factor. Do we really want to start on a weekly basis either one of them knowing their share 50/50 the backfield in most weeks and on any given week, one of them can get more touches than the other? it's too much of a gamble for me as long as they are both healthy. Now, if one get injured, the remaining one is an automatic must start.

I disagree with this. I think they both can be a factor even if they are both healthy. Look at last year. They both were a factor and played all but I think 1 week together. I see GB relying even more on them with no Adams as these are their two best playmakers. I think their floors are high with the upside of top 5 if there is an injury.

I had Jones in a few leagues last year and he killed me. I'm sorry but I'm not willing to gamble on who will have the better day and who will post a below ADP week in terms of points on a weekly basis. But looks like it's just me I guess. happy to leave them both to you guys.

 

[chad in Indy]

That said, I think Jones will have the better season. One thing I considered, drafting him in a keeper league, is the likelihood Jones will be released next year. It’s something that has been a consistent belief, by a few local beat writers. Jones cap hit goes from $5.9 million this year to $20 million next year. He also turns 29 in December of next year.

Why does his likelihood of him being released cause you to believe he will have a better season? Or do you mean that is why you drafted in a keeper-league?

 

[Gally]

I had Jones in a few leagues last year and he killed me. I'm sorry but I'm not willing to gamble on who will have the better day and who will post a below ADP week in terms of points on a weekly basis. But looks like it's just me I guess. happy to leave them both to you guys.

Jones killed you last year? He finished as RB10 in my league and had two duds all year. I would take that out of my RB every year.....and that was even missing two games.

 

[TripItUp]

It feels like both are being drafted at their ceiling

How is that their ceiling? They both eclipsed it last year and both played every game together except for 1 week.

JONES:
Last year finished RB7- This year ADP RB11

DILLON:
Last year finished RB20- This year ADP RB22

@TripItUp really curious your thoughts on the above. Are you expecting a significant drop in production from last year for them? Are you suggesting that this year's CEILING is worse than what they accomplished last year together?

I think the offense is due for regression overall. Additionally, a timeshare is by definition ceiling limiting. Why draft guys that have a limitation on touches?

FTR, I also am not on board with Players like Chubb/Hunt...so this is a philosophy.

I have had a lot of success targeting players with high ceilings, so that's what I stick with.

 

[Deamon]

I had Jones in a few leagues last year and he killed me

He was drafted as RB7 and finished RB7 and he killed you? lol explain

 

[Deamon]

It feels like both are being drafted at their ceiling

How is that their ceiling? They both eclipsed it last year and both played every game together except for 1 week.

JONES:
Last year finished RB7- This year ADP RB11

DILLON:
Last year finished RB20- This year ADP RB22

@TripItUp really curious your thoughts on the above. Are you expecting a significant drop in production from last year for them? Are you suggesting that this year's CEILING is worse than what they accomplished last year together?

I think the offense is due for regression overall. Additionally, a timeshare is by definition ceiling limiting. Why draft guys that have a limitation on touches?

FTR, I also am not on board with Players like Chubb/Hunt...so this is a philosophy.

I have had a lot of success targeting players with high ceilings, so that's what I stick with.

Right, but you said they're being drafted 'at their ceiling' even though they both played all last year and finished above their ADP this year so it just seems a bit confusing.
If you believe a huge regression in GB rushing stats is coming then it makes sense to think they're overvalued. But if you think they could repeat last year, then they're undervalued.

 

[TripItUp]

Have we EVER seen 2 rbs from the same team going in the first 5 rounds of fantasy?

Maybe during the Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams years. Where's Hunt going because Chubb/Hunt may also be an answer.

Exactly, it rarely happens.

Like you can count on one hand when it happens.

 

[TripItUp]

It feels like both are being drafted at their ceiling

How is that their ceiling? They both eclipsed it last year and both played every game together except for 1 week.

JONES:
Last year finished RB7- This year ADP RB11

DILLON:
Last year finished RB20- This year ADP RB22

@TripItUp really curious your thoughts on the above. Are you expecting a significant drop in production from last year for them? Are you suggesting that this year's CEILING is worse than what they accomplished last year together?

I think the offense is due for regression overall. Additionally, a timeshare is by definition ceiling limiting. Why draft guys that have a limitation on touches?

FTR, I also am not on board with Players like Chubb/Hunt...so this is a philosophy.

I have had a lot of success targeting players with high ceilings, so that's what I stick with.

Right, but you said they're being drafted 'at their ceiling' even though they both played all last year and finished above their ADP this year so it just seems a bit confusing.
If you believe a huge regression in GB rushing stats is coming then it makes sense to think they're overvalued. But if you think they could repeat last year, then they're undervalued.

Let me explain it this way.

If Dillon has the exact same year as last year, I believe he will have been overdrafted this year. And I don't even think he will have the same year barring major injury to Jones.

You want players with high ceilings, not just players that you believe will exceed ADP. "Exceed ADP" isn't a function of player was draftet at "X" and finished at "Y". That's unsophisticated thinking and how you end up in 4th place every year instead of winning titles IMHO.

 

[Deamon]

If Dillon has the exact same year as last year, I believe he will have been overdrafted this year.

Could you explain this? Last year he finished RB20. This year he's being drafted as RB22.

If he has the exact same year as last year, this would mean he will have been underdrafted this year.

 

[Deamon]

It feels like both are being drafted at their ceiling

How is that their ceiling? They both eclipsed it last year and both played every game together except for 1 week.

JONES:
Last year finished RB7- This year ADP RB11

DILLON:
Last year finished RB20- This year ADP RB22

@TripItUp really curious your thoughts on the above. Are you expecting a significant drop in production from last year for them? Are you suggesting that this year's CEILING is worse than what they accomplished last year together?

I think the offense is due for regression overall. Additionally, a timeshare is by definition ceiling limiting. Why draft guys that have a limitation on touches?

FTR, I also am not on board with Players like Chubb/Hunt...so this is a philosophy.

I have had a lot of success targeting players with high ceilings, so that's what I stick with.

Right, but you said they're being drafted 'at their ceiling' even though they both played all last year and finished above their ADP this year so it just seems a bit confusing.
If you believe a huge regression in GB rushing stats is coming then it makes sense to think they're overvalued. But if you think they could repeat last year, then they're undervalued.

Let me explain it this way.

If Dillon has the exact same year as last year, I believe he will have been overdrafted this year. And I don't even think he will have the same year barring major injury to Jones.

You want players with high ceilings, not just players that you believe will exceed ADP. "Exceed ADP" isn't a function of player was draftet at "X" and finished at "Y". That's unsophisticated thinking and how you end up in 4th place every year instead of winning titles IMHO.

Hmmm okay... I guess I don't really see it that way at all.
Fantasy playoffs are a load of luck too so not a huge difference between a team finishing 4th or 1st. Swinging for upside is also how you end up in 12th every year instead of a coin flip semi final game that you can make the finals in.

 

[eighsse2]

"Exceed ADP" isn't a function of player was draftet at "X" and finished at "Y".

Oh, ok.

 

[TripItUp]

"Exceed ADP" isn't a function of player was draftet at "X" and finished at "Y".

Oh, ok.

Not understood by most. But this is basic game theory stuff.

I suggest you guys try to understand this concept particularly if you want to venture into higher stakes/expert leagues.

 

[Deamon]

If Dillon has the exact same year as last year, I believe he will have been overdrafted this year.

Oof, pompous much?
I play lots of high stakes/expert leagues, thanks. In the FFPC leagues (which I assume you'll call high stakes/expert), This year he's being drafted as RB18.

But I guess you should join that too since you're smarter than all them and they don't understand your advanced metrics either. Yikes.

 

[Deamon]

Let me explain it this way.

If Dillon has the exact same year as last year, I believe he will have been overdrafted this year. And I don't even think he will have the same year barring major injury to Jones.

You want players with high ceilings, not just players that you believe will exceed ADP. "Exceed ADP" isn't a function of player was draftet at "X" and finished at "Y". That's unsophisticated thinking and how you end up in 4th place every year instead of winning titles IMHO.

This is an example of digging in when you probably didn't realize how high they both finished last year (Like the guy who said he was burned all year last year owning the RB7 lol)
Exceed ADP absolutely is a function of a player drafted at X and finishing at Y

If you take a player as the RB20 who finishes RB10, you're happy. If you take a player as the RB4 who finishes RB1, you're happy. In 12 man leagues, a very good way to lose your league is by taking huge swings and being upset if your guy isn't a top 10 RB. If you draft a guy at #1, you want him to finish in the top 5.

Dillon is currently being drafted BELOW where he finished last year, and the general thought (amongst those in these high stakes/expert leagues that you talk about being in) is that he will greatly improve on his numbers this year.

 

[Kuz]

Have we EVER seen 2 rbs from the same team going in the first 5 rounds of fantasy?

This happened to me in one of my leagues. I think it was either 2004 or 2005

I took Priest Holmes in the 1st round & someone grabbed Larry Johnson in the 5th. Holmes then got hurt & Johnson was a monster that year..

 

[nirad3]

It feels like both are being drafted at their ceiling

How is that their ceiling? They both eclipsed it last year and both played every game together except for 1 week.

JONES:
Last year finished RB7- This year ADP RB11

DILLON:
Last year finished RB20- This year ADP RB22

@TripItUp really curious your thoughts on the above. Are you expecting a significant drop in production from last year for them? Are you suggesting that this year's CEILING is worse than what they accomplished last year together?

I think the offense is due for regression overall. Additionally, a timeshare is by definition ceiling limiting. Why draft guys that have a limitation on touches?

FTR, I also am not on board with Players like Chubb/Hunt...so this is a philosophy.

I have had a lot of success targeting players with high ceilings, so that's what I stick with.

Good luck finding true workhorses. Hasn't the "RBBC" been around for a decade?

 

[TripItUp]

This is an example of digging in when you probably didn't realize how high they both finished last year

cmon bro, I nearly have every players stats memorized. Do my own projections pre and post NFL draft...start 4 months of best ball drafting after NFL draft...and' that's all before August.

 

[TripItUp]

Good luck finding true workhorses. Hasn't the "RBBC" been around for a decade?

So let's visit this. What RBs at Dillon's and Jones' ADPs are better bets for higher volumes/ceilings. This isn't difficult.

 

[The Dude]

Underdog adp has them rb11 and 19

 

[TripItUp]

Hmmm okay... I guess I don't really see it that way at all.

Okay for us to disagree. You like Dillon's profile, I do not.(at ADP)

 

[need2know]

Dillon is Ingram, Jones is Kamara. Prefer Jones in every format since targets are crazy more valuable than runs. Dillon is best used to punish defenders- Jones is best used in space. Hopefully LaFleur sees that .

I think Jones is in for a monster year and is going to deliver in PPR leagues. Dillon will do fine but Jones should see many more touches.

This is what I see also.

 

[Deamon]

cmon bro, I nearly have every players stats memorized. Do my own projections pre and post NFL draft...start 4 months of best ball drafting after NFL draft...and' that's all before August.

 

[Deamon]

Good luck finding true workhorses. Hasn't the "RBBC" been around for a decade?

So let's visit this. What RBs at Dillon's and Jones' ADPs are better bets for higher volumes/ceilings. This isn't difficult.

Higher ceilings does not equal success in fantasy.

You legit made a comment about how those in higher stakes/expert leagues would see it differently, and they do not.

It's okay to not like Dillon, but it's factually incorrect to say their CEILINGS are RB 11 and RB 22 (You said "they're being drafted at their ceilings). They both beat this last year, so their "ceiling" is above their current ADP. Unless you're implying that this year it would be IMPOSSIBLE for them to repeat last year's nunbers. Are you saying they don't have a ceiling of last year's results?

 

[TripItUp]

You legit made a comment about how those in higher stakes/expert leagues would see it differently, and they do not.

I disagree with this. ADP doesn't tell the story. Certainly not the ADP cited.

 

[Deamon]

4 months of best ball drafting

Ahhh, this may be the disconnect. You only play best ball where ceiling factors in MUCH more heavily. One day you'll understand how non best ball leagues work and can join the big boys in the expert leagues.

 

[TripItUp]

It's okay to not like Dillon, but it's factually incorrect to say their CEILINGS are RB 11 and RB 22 (You said "they're being drafted at their ceilings). They both beat this last year, so their "ceiling" is above their current ADP. Unless you're implying that this year it would be IMPOSSIBLE for them to repeat last year's nunbers. Are you saying they don't have a ceiling of last year's results?

Again, this is not a function of Player was drafted at "X" and finished at "Y".

Also, "drafted at ceiling" means drafted at forecasted ceiling...not their 2021 ceiling.

 

[Deamon]

Also, "drafted at ceiling" means drafted at forecasted ceiling...not their 2021 ceiling.

So you're forecasting that it is impossible for them to replicate last year's numbers.

 

[TripItUp]

4 months of best ball drafting

Ahhh, this may be the disconnect. You only play best ball where ceiling factors in MUCH more heavily. One day you'll understand how non best ball leagues work and can join the big boys in the expert leagues.

I'm not talking about best balls solely.

In a typical high stakes /expert redraft you want high ceilings to finish first out of 12 teams. If you are drafting a RB at RB#22 and he finished RB#21...you may consider that a win. I potentially consider that a loss, because you passed on the RB that had a #8 ceiling or a WR that had a #7 ceiling etc. etc.

 

[TripItUp]

Also, "drafted at ceiling" means drafted at forecasted ceiling...not their 2021 ceiling.

So you're forecasting that it is impossible for them to replicate last year's numbers.

I didn't say that.

 

[Deamon]

Also, "drafted at ceiling" means drafted at forecasted ceiling...not their 2021 ceiling.

So you're forecasting that it is impossible for them to replicate last year's numbers.

I didn't say that.

You said exactly that.

 

[Deamon]

I didn't say that.

You said they're being drafted at their ceiling. I showed you that they're being drafted below how they finished last year.
You said it isn't about last year, it's about this year. So you're implying that their ceiling this year, is lower than their production last year. What are you missing here?

 

[Deamon]

Also, "drafted at ceiling" means drafted at forecasted ceiling...not their 2021 ceiling.

I'll make this more simple for you:

Is their perceived ceiling this year:

A: higher than how they produced last year? Or
B: lower than they produced last year.

 

[TripItUp]

I didn't say that.

You said they're being drafted at their ceiling. I showed you that they're being drafted below how they finished last year.
You said it isn't about last year, it's about this year. So you're implying that their ceiling this year, is lower than their production last year. What are you missing here?

I'll rephrase this, because I thought it was implied.

"They are being drafted closer to my forecasted 2022 ceiling whereas other played with similar ADPs (including those at other positions) have much higher ceilings.(per my forecast)."

This has little to do with 2021.

 

[Deamon]

"They are being drafted closer to my forecasted 2022 ceiling

Ah okay, now you're coming around. Glad it only took you a few messages to retract your last statement and get there.

 

[TripItUp]

"They are being drafted closer to my forecasted 2022 ceiling

Ah okay, now you're coming around. Glad it only took you a few messages to retract your last statement and get there.

I didn't retract anything.

 

[Deamon]

I didn't retract anything.

Ok, you "rephrased" because you originally said "drafted at their ceiling" (which they are not), and then changed it to "at the ceiling I perceive", and then changed it to "oh ok well I actually meant closer to their ceiling than other players"

 

[Gally]

In a typical high stakes /expert redraft you want high ceilings to finish first out of 12 teams. If you are drafting a RB at RB#22 and he finished RB#21...you may consider that a win. I potentially consider that a loss, because you passed on the RB that had a #8 ceiling or a WR that had a #7 ceiling etc. etc.

But that only matters or becomes a loss if those guys you passed on that had they potential #8 or #7 ceiling actually got to that ceiling (which doesn't happen a lot for players being drafted in that part of the draft). It does happen and if you have that great of a confidence that they will achieve those projections then it makes sense. That then becomes a win for those guys.....it doesn't necessarily mean a RB drafted at RB22 finishing at RB21 is a loss though.

 

[Deamon]

In a typical high stakes /expert redraft you want high ceilings to finish first out of 12 teams. If you are drafting a RB at RB#22 and he finished RB#21...you may consider that a win. I potentially consider that a loss, because you passed on the RB that had a #8 ceiling or a WR that had a #7 ceiling etc. etc.

But that only matters or becomes a loss if those guys you passed on that had they potential #8 or #7 ceiling actually got to that ceiling (which doesn't happen a lot for players being drafted in that part of the draft). It does happen and if you have that great of a confidence that they will achieve those projections then it makes sense. That then becomes a win for those guys.....it doesn't necessarily mean a RB drafted at RB22 finishing at RB21 is a loss though.

Exactly. A 'high upside" RB drafted at RB22 and finishing at RB40 is a loss.

 

[-jb-]

lol at the last page.

I drafted AJD after:
ETN
Dobbins
Breece
Sanders

I drafted AJD before:
Jacobs
Pierce
CEH
Pollard

5.11. I feel fine about it.

then again, I'm a maroon and don't have every players stats memorized.

 

[Deamon]

I'm a maroon

This typo makes it even better haha

 

[-jb-]

I'm a maroon

This typo makes it even better haha

new here (I know you're not)?

 

[Sasgaard]

I had Jones in a few leagues last year and he killed me

He was drafted as RB7 and finished RB7 and he killed you? lol explain

Because as you guys often do, you are looking at total points but it's deeper than this. His RB7 finish was due to a 41pts monster week (at the beginning of the season btw before dillon cut gis time) and a couple of big other weeks. He also had 6 weeks under 12 pts in PPR of which 3 of them under 5pts. As my previous posts tried to convey, he was very hot and cold and i don't like the 50/50 time share with dillon. That's all i am saying. He's a good RB but dillon's presence makes them both a gamble on any given week. I stick to that statement.