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ZVBD (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Rob Zarzycki
- Start date
jinxkaiser
Footballguy
I think it's great!!! One question...what if I get to round 3 and have drafted 2 rbs already. If the value still lies at running back, do I ignore the need for a QB or WR in that round and stick completely to value?Jinx 
Saint
Footballguy
I think we're getting closer... New team:QB: Manning, FiedlerRB: T. Henry, D. Staley, A. Smith, K. FaulkWR: Moss, Key. Johnson, S. Smith, C. BradfordTE: B. Miller, S. AlexanderK: Chandler, DawsonD: Bucs, EaglesThe flex calcs still seem to be predicting heavy RBs, though not as much as before.I'm using FBG top 200 to predict draft order for the first several rounds, then relying on the straight VBD to fill out rosters in a "projected sensible" draft. This is great for projections, but as we know each league is different. I'm hoping to develop an analyzer that automatically adjusts the projected results based on each round to assist in predicting "future" D values based on real-time in the draft If it doesn't work, I've learned a lot of visual basic for Excel 
Mungo Burrows
Footballguy
Don't suppose you'd want to donate your spreadsheet, would you?I think we're getting closer... New team:QB: Manning, FiedlerRB: T. Henry, D. Staley, A. Smith, K. FaulkWR: Moss, Key. Johnson, S. Smith, C. BradfordTE: B. Miller, S. AlexanderK: Chandler, DawsonD: Bucs, EaglesThe flex calcs still seem to be predicting heavy RBs, though not as much as before.I'm using FBG top 200 to predict draft order for the first several rounds, then relying on the straight VBD to fill out rosters in a "projected sensible" draft. This is great for projections, but as we know each league is different. I'm hoping to develop an analyzer that automatically adjusts the projected results based on each round to assist in predicting "future" D values based on real-time in the draft If it doesn't work, I've learned a lot of visual basic for Excel
Blutarsky90
Footballguy
I ran this system in a couple of mocks at AntSports as well. After a few rounds in the first draft, I knew what position it was going to tell me to draft. The only time I was really surpised by the results were when I forgot to deduct one from the position multiplier... of course, I didn't realize that until after I made the pick (that's the great thing about mocks, huh?). The other thing I realized is that if you set up your VBD sheet using "all players drafted at a position" as your baseline, the picks using ZVBD come pretty close to mirroring that sheet (as long as you ignore the QBs). I'm not sure I agree with the idea of changing the multiplier. I liked the results the best when I left the multiplier at 1.5. The only thing I kept questioning was QB, but I can't say I was that unhappy with who I ended up drafting (Pennington). If nothing else, experimenting with ZVBD has made me more sure of my drafting style.
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Native
Footballguy
This has been a great read.Open questions1) Why does Z suggest to "add" even rounds to odd rounds if youre drafting at a bookend?2) What have been the preliminary results of changing the B value according to position need? (1.5 is a static number - maybe the number should be lower for WR's and higher for QB's).3) Has Z returned from his poker trip yet?
GoBears84
Footballguy
I spent yesterday experimenting the ZVBD. I'm in a 10 team yahoo league. I ran two mock drafts, one where I assumed that everybody was using VBD, and one I used the yahoo KFFL rankings to make the picks for the 9 other teams and the Draft Dominator for mine (I have to assume I'm the smart one in the group 
I have the third pick in our draft.What I found the most helpful in both drafts was the use of the Draft Dominator to track picks. I had two sheets of paper at my desk -- one with my projections of postional picks by round and the second was a worksheet which had a column each for QB/RB/WR/TE with the ZVBD Draft values (1.5, 4, 4, and 1.5 respectively). I left 4 blank lines at the top of the columnsSince I knew the baseline number going into each round, it was easy to calculate those before my turn. (My biggest assumption is that the draft will follow form which as pointed out previously, might not be correct.)By tracking the draft picks using the DD, when it was my turn it was very easy to click on the player pool for each position, note the points for the top player, count down the list and find the points for the baseline player. I did the subtraction in my head, wrote the number on my sheet and moved on to the next position. Total time took about 30 to 60 seconds per round, which gave me enough time to ponder the wisdom of the pick. As soon as I made my pick, I reduced the draft value for the appropriate position and wrote the new number in the lnext line above the column and then started on the next round calculations while tracking the draft progress.The moral of the story: The ZVBD calculations are infinitely easier once you establish a calculation system and use it inconjunction with the DD.
I have the third pick in our draft.What I found the most helpful in both drafts was the use of the Draft Dominator to track picks. I had two sheets of paper at my desk -- one with my projections of postional picks by round and the second was a worksheet which had a column each for QB/RB/WR/TE with the ZVBD Draft values (1.5, 4, 4, and 1.5 respectively). I left 4 blank lines at the top of the columnsSince I knew the baseline number going into each round, it was easy to calculate those before my turn. (My biggest assumption is that the draft will follow form which as pointed out previously, might not be correct.)By tracking the draft picks using the DD, when it was my turn it was very easy to click on the player pool for each position, note the points for the top player, count down the list and find the points for the baseline player. I did the subtraction in my head, wrote the number on my sheet and moved on to the next position. Total time took about 30 to 60 seconds per round, which gave me enough time to ponder the wisdom of the pick. As soon as I made my pick, I reduced the draft value for the appropriate position and wrote the new number in the lnext line above the column and then started on the next round calculations while tracking the draft progress.The moral of the story: The ZVBD calculations are infinitely easier once you establish a calculation system and use it inconjunction with the DD.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
It's interesting that despite being a numbers geek I never acquired a taste for the variants of VBD. I use starter baselines to get my starters and first bench WR and RB, and drafted baselines to setup the general arrangement of my draft sheet, but everything after that is "feel". I tier the positions and identify targetted value within tiers. Due to the uncertainty of projections, I will happily violate a numbers-based "value" choice between a WR4 and a RB3 based on upside / risk / "feel". To do otherwise, I fear, would make me a prisoner of the math. To each his own...
myhousekey
Footballguy
Definitely would like to hear/read some more theory on this. I ran some mock drafts today from some of my preseason material and found what others have said:1. QB's are very devalued.2. It kept giving me tons of RB's to pick (4th rb before 2nd wr). 3. I think the constant multiplier (1.5) needs to be further evaluated.4. I had the same question concerning "skipping" your own pick when you are counting the number of players at each position that you believe will be picked between your draft picks. Is it really irrelevant?Overall, I think he may be on to something. You don't finish in the top 3 two years in a row at WCOFF on dumb luck; but like I said, I'd like to hear some more about it.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
Hey Tiger Fan,Not sure if you're going to get this question answered anytime soon. Rob Z is no longer a part of FBG staff and, to the best of my knowledge, hasn't frequented the boards with regularity in quite some time.To those wondering, Rob (who was the runner up in WCOFF two years ago) finished 3rd again this past season and has embarked on several new ventures with a bent in the "gaming" arena, as I understand things.Woodrow
radballs.
Footballguy
Here's his final roster from 2003:Z-Men, owned by Robert Zarzycki Currently Active Players Pos Player Team Sta Wk1 Opp QB Jeff Garcia SF act vs Chi RB Deuce McAllister NO act at Sea RB Fred Taylor Jac act at Car RB Kevan Barlow SF act vs Chi WR Torry Holt StL act at NYN WR Jimmy Smith Jac act at Car WR Steve Smith Car act vs Jac TE Itula Mili Sea act vs NO K Gary Anderson Ten act vs Oak TDSP Team Def Special Teams StL act at NYN Currently Reserved Players Pos Player Team Sta Wk1 Opp QB Patrick Ramsey Was res vs NYA QB Tim Rattay SF res vs Chi RB Domanick Davis Hou res at Mia RB Ki-Jana Carter NO res at Sea RB Rock Cartwright Was res vs NYA WR Joey Galloway Dal res vs Atl WR Troy Brown NE res at Buf WR Muhsin Muhammad Car res vs Jac TE Randy McMichael Mia res vs Hou K Phil Dawson Cle res vs Ind
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Heck of a set of RBs, and Garcia got hot at the right time for him.
Joe T
Footballguy
http://wcoff.tqstats.com/commscripts/wwwpr...dhUEOqJieXkuAPb
here's a link to his league from last year.
I can't find a draft order, but from what I can tell it appears he drafted Dominque Davis and Steve Smith.
Add those two to any decent draft last year and you probably had a pretty good year.
Someone help me find out if it lists the draft order on there the same way MFL does.
BTW - BIG THANK YOU TO TIGER FAN for helping me locate that link.
here's a link to his league from last year.
I can't find a draft order, but from what I can tell it appears he drafted Dominque Davis and Steve Smith.
Add those two to any decent draft last year and you probably had a pretty good year.
Someone help me find out if it lists the draft order on there the same way MFL does.
BTW - BIG THANK YOU TO TIGER FAN for helping me locate that link.
Portis 26
Madden Freak
I found all these fiendishly complicated mathematical systems of drafting deeply unsatisfactory. For me, drafting ought to be about outwitting your peers through sublime psychological warfare, by making brilliant, daring moves, by utilising insights into the players, not anything that involves a calculator.
David Dodds
Administrator
The one thing I know Rob did at the two WCOFF drafts is he drafted his first QB after first choosing at least 8 to 9 other players. I am not saying that is the sole reason for his success, but it is a big factor. When we run our VBD App with the 2RB, 3 WR + flex with 1 point per reception, Culpepper showed up about 40 on the overall list last year.I am guessing the "average" WCOFF drafter is taking quarterbacks way too early.Chris Schussman who won in 2002 won by getting Chad Pennington on the waiver wire. He also did not take a QB until around round 10 I believe.I watched and observed last year while playing (and winning) my DraftMaster league the day before. I will definitely have an entry in this year's WCOFF. And you can bet that I will have taken a combination of 9 RBs/WRs before I even look at the QB pool.
G
Gladiators
Guest
Oooo, there ya go. When you don't like something or don't understand something then you attack the person rather than the argument (or theory in this case). Why didn't we all think of that approach? Seriously, I can see problems with my league in that someone always seems to pull a surprise out their butt. Last year a guy that has been in our championship game 4 of the last 6 years went off into left field and picked a DEFENSE IN THE FIRST ROUND....everyone's mouth dropped. It was only by his trading skills and alot of luck that he managed to pull out a winning record (barely) and take the final spot of the playoffs. But, that illustrates the problems that would have me scrambling for a calculator right in the middle of my draft. AND if I'm trying to adjust my rounds, I'm not able to focus on the draft. Course, the biggest kicker of our draft is that we only have a one minute clock and when one person is finished drafting, the next person's clock starts immediately. Sometimes I barely have time to record the draft pick. If this were on a computer program then I could probably take a laptop and use it, otherwise I just don't see myself having the time to make the adjustments.
Keysersoze666
Footballguy
Let me toss in a few first-hand observations. My partner and I have participated in the WCOFF in both years so far ... and LUCKY us ... Rob Z. was in our league both times. Somewhere in the archives I'm sure I have the draft order as it happened each year which I will attempt to dig up. In the meanwhile here are some thoughts.The 1st year I had no idea that Rob was using a modified VBD system but he had garnered some acclaim by the 2nd year by finishing 2nd overall. We chatted with him after the first years draft on the subject of WR's which he drafted a boatload of. If my memory is correct he had 8 WR's on a roster of 20 players. His explanation was that drafting a bevy of mid-range receivers that had upside gave him a better chance of hitting a home run or two, which would be advantageous in the WCOFF which had a flex player AND added 1 pt/reception to the scoring system. Even though we did reasonably well that year ourselves, my partner and I agreed that he had played that strategy well and we did not (We were playing for the first time with 1pt per reception). I cannot comment on whether his system (which seems to value receivers) was the real reason for his strategy but it was effective.I watched him more closely in the 2nd season and he was Cranking Calculations intently during the draft. In fact, in both seasons ... he was the ONLY team to ever NOT make a pick in the alloted 60 seconds. Under WCOFF rules the next team picks and then it comes back to the skipped team who then has 5 seconds to select. In the 2nd year Rob let his pick slide through 5 or 6 other teams before he finally decided who to choose. This told me that he was confident in his sytem and not concerned with losing a few slots (or overwhelmed and in need of a laptop, one of the two .. hehehe).He also did make several shrewd waiver wire pickups during the season that helped immensely. I'll see if I can dig up and post his actual draft order for general purposes on this thread.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
Hey Tiger,DD is right. Remember that Garcia's back was supposedly a real issue last year and that really dropped his draft stock. Had he been healthy, no way would he have gone that late, but such was the case.WoodrowP.S. Nice job on your Smackoff
I do remember that now. Thanks.Thanks about the smackoff. But I should thank Jabroni, he keeps throwing me softballs.Hey Tiger,DD is right. Remember that Garcia's back was supposedly a real issue last year and that really dropped his draft stock. Had he been healthy, no way would he have gone that late, but such was the case.WoodrowP.S. Nice job on your Smackoff
cobalt_27
Footballguy
eom
Footballguy
I dislike the pricetag.
buck naked
Footballguy
As Z said, he does not get involved on these boards anymore. Mostly because people gave him too much bs. I don't blame him at all.
By the way, he just won his NFFC league.
By the way, he just won his NFFC league.
cstu
Footballguy
footballman_696969
Footballguy
Does anyone actually use this anymore? Does it work?
switz
Footballguy
I used a modified version of this in my last draft. I guess we'll see after the season if it worked. However, on paper I'd say it hurt me at RB more than I would have expected.
GoBears84
Footballguy
The ZVBD is a great concept, but the Dominator, with ADP_USER is essentially the same. If I couldn't bring a laptop to the draft I might consider using it, but DD with SOS, integrated ADP, etc., etc, is much stronger.
Maggot Brain
Footballguy
Found myself in the same situation last year. I went with my gut more this year when I came across those same tough 'RB or not to RB' decisions. We'll see what happens I guess. Overall I'm happier with my team than last year.
