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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)

I’m fighting back.

Some chatter that CE removal is close on SFIO. Bought 50,000 at .099 and will buy another 50,000 if it touches .08

 
stbugs said:
Yeah, Dillard’s missed their revenue number last night and are up a few percent. They’re revenue was down 18% YoY and yet they are up double the S&P over the past year. ATHs, up 40% and your revenue is down 20% and maybe will never recover? I understand a lot of my tech stocks being frothy but they are growing like weeds top and bottom, so even if frothy right they should grow into and past the froth LT. A department store well above previous ATHs seems way more frothy. Do people think that people are going to just return to the mall in droves and spend more than ever? I sure don’t.
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My wife works in fashion retail on the financial side. Covid actually kept them afloat but really just delayed the inevitable. In other areas it has accelerated the demise of things like malls.

 
jamny said:
My wife works in fashion retail on the financial side. Covid actually kept them afloat but really just delayed the inevitable. In other areas it has accelerated the demise of things like malls.
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It's weird the trends it's accelerated.  Your event tickets going forward will almost all be mobile, no more paper.  This trend had started but was forced forward in 2020.  Very few teams are even making the old paper tickets an option.  Now people are wanting to buy the old ticket stock from prior years as collectors items.  I have some left here but I can remember throwing boxes and cases full of old tickets away that we had converted to electronic versions.  My wife and I rented a dumpster to clean out our basement a couple years back and probably half that thing was filled with old ticket stock.

 
Buckna said:
Agreed, DOW hit an all-time high yesterday. S&P 500 is only 2.5% off it’s all-time high. Nasdaq is down 6% (8% intraday this morning.) Broader market is barely feeling this (yet?)
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The broader market still hasn't recovered from the events of 1Q last year.  If we have a correction, it's coming from all the ARK type stocks.

 
Got out of CCIV entirely this morning at $42.50, $10K lighter than had I sold yesterday at the close. Hurts but thankful it bounced from $31 earlier today giving me a chance to get out with a decent chunk. Still have some IPOE and GHVI but my enthusiasm for SPACS is done.

Bloodbath everywhere else, still down over 6% for the day, was 14% at its worst. 

 
BassNBrew said:
The broader market still hasn't recovered from the events of 1Q last year.  If we have a correction, it's coming from all the ARK type stocks.
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That’s not really true. Bloomin, JPM, Dillards, Walmart, Target, Discover, HD, Disney, MGM, PENN and many others are at ATHs or at highs well above end of 2019/Q1 2020.

There are exceptions like AMC and travel stocks where there businesses are still being crushed. Heck DAL is only 25% off it’s all time high with extremely low travel. Marriott is basically at ATHs or within a couple percent.

Anyway, to act like this is a tech only rally isn’t true. If the company hasn’t been truly crippled by the pandemic, the stocks are well up. The Dow wouldn’t be at ATHs if it was just tech. ARK type stocks have corrected a good amount in some cases.

 
stbugs said:
That’s not really true. Bloomin, JPM, Dillards, Walmart, Target, Discover, HD, Disney, MGM, PENN and many others are at ATHs or at highs well above end of 2019/Q1 2020.

There are exceptions like AMC and travel stocks where there businesses are still being crushed. Heck DAL is only 25% off it’s all time high with extremely low travel. Marriott is basically at ATHs or within a couple percent.

Anyway, to act like this is a tech only rally isn’t true. If the company hasn’t been truly crippled by the pandemic, the stocks are well up. The Dow wouldn’t be at ATHs if it was just tech. ARK type stocks have corrected a good amount in some cases.
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Many of those you have listed have turned to tech and overs have benefitted from the pandemic.  I can give you more utilities, energy, banks, etc that haven't come back.  I'll give you JPM.  Trading at a forward PE of 14 with a 2.4% dividend yield.  It's up 7% in a year.  Is that the definition of an over valued market that needs a major correction?

If we have a 10% correction, it will be heavily weighted toward tech and not the broader market.  SE will be trading at $100, FLGT at $50, SQ at $150.

 
BassNBrew said:
Many of those you have listed have turned to tech and overs have benefitted from the pandemic.  I can give you more utilities, energy, banks, etc that haven't come back.  I'll give you JPM.  Trading at a forward PE of 14 with a 2.4% dividend yield.  It's up 7% in a year.  Is that the definition of an over valued market that needs a major correction?

If we have a 10% correction, it will be heavily weighted toward tech and not the broader market.  SE will be trading at $100, FLGT at $50, SQ at $150.
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But don't you think those all come back up long term?

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
But don't you think those all come back up long term?
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Possibly.  I've been saying for a long time now that everyone keeps mentioning the dot com bubble with this bubble, but they mis-apply that to stuff like GME and OTC stocks.

GME and OTC stocks are not the potential dot com bubble.  All these tech stocks are the potential dot com bubble.  ZM, FVRR, SE, FLGT, NIO, ETSY, OSTK, W, DOCU etc etc etc.  These stocks where when they pull back to "only" being up 800% in a year and trading at "only" a 4000x multiple they feel "safe" to us.

These are all stocks that have run up purely because "the world is changing" and we are speculating that not only will the world change exactly as we expect, but that these will be the winners in that new world.  Again this parallels directly to the dot com bubble because the whole theory behind that bubble building was the same.  "It's a new world". 

Lotta good that "new world" did for search engines not named Google.

I'm not saying it will happen, and I don't think this pullback we're in now is a bubble burst, but rather just a fairly standard correction after 6 weeks of going up.  But if the theories about a bubble are true and the bubble truly pops that pop will be a lot of these companies dropping 80%-90% and never coming back.

Just my $0.02.  I'm not saying it will happen, but I think people are mixing up the words "bubble" and "correction".  We've all been expecting a correction that we knew was eventually coming.  We are fearful of a bubble pop which may or may not ever come.  But if it does, it will be a LOT more painful than this.

 
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General Malaise said:
God, my kids are freaking addicted to this game and it's really not funny.  It's bad.  Like, talk to a therapist level bad.  

I will be buying shares handover fist when this thing comes out.  Might as well profit while they destroy my spawn.
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Same here.  I'm on the monthly payment plan.  It's what she wanted for her birthday and I got suckered in since she couldn't have a party. 

 
Jeez hard to believe SPY is only down 0.1% today looking at my portfolio.

GBTC a big part of that, but pretty red across the board.

 
cosjobs said:
Wtf uvxy? Vic up 6%, but you're down. Today's the kind of day I need you
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I'm kind of confused by this.  It's not like TVIX that did a better job of tracking the VIX, but that's not just it.  It's also that a lot of stocks are down and the VIX isn't reflecting that as much as I thought it would.  So, people are selling, but not necessarily betting against futures here???  Like they're just pulling some money off the table, maybe shifting elsewhere, but keeping very low future volatility changes.  Maybe I'm overthinking this and just don't get it.  But if this continues and stocks drop with low VIX, at some point if that VIX shifts upwards, we're really going to see some market drops.  

 
God, I remember playing a ton of Roblox when it first came out in the 2000s. Funny to see it become so popular over the last few years. Definitely going to try and get in on the IPO, might even have to play a little bit to see how the game has changed.  :oldunsure:

 
is there a way on fidelity to divide my positions page into a few different pages? Like having all my long-term holds on one page, "trading" stocks on another, SPACs on a third? 

 
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