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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

identikit said:
One of the best moves I've ever made to go heavy on chips:  NVDA, XLNX, GFS, SOXL (INTC not so much)
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NVDA, SIVB, WD and TSLA were my biggest misses last March. I had enough cash to throw at all of them but I didn’t. I was still worried about a bigger drop so only pushed some of my cash. I did at least add a bunch of chip/5G stocks in June of last year and CRNC, XLNX, TER and CDNS have all returned at least 100% so hard to be too upset.

 
DraftKings Form 4 Shows Director Harry Sloan Purchased 50K Shares On Nov. 16
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Wish I had 2 mil I could just throw away.  ;)

Gotta admit, I kind of want to add here at <37.  

edit:  Done.  Not a big buy, 10% increase at 36.8299.  

 
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The Commish said:
well....I wanted to diversify a bit....made really good money several years ago on Apple and Amazon and dumped all that into 529s for the kids education.  Now I'm looking to see if I can get more diverse in stocks than I am (heavily in tech stocks, long term).  I don't think I've bought tech stock outside of Nvidia in 3-4 years.
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If you want to diversify you could do worse than look at Todem's list and pick some of the big names there, along with some of his longer term bets. 

 
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Tough to think ZIM could have done much better. Hope you held, @urbanhack

 ZIM Integrated Shipping Services ( ZIM ) posted Q3 earnings Wednesday of $12.16 per share, up from $1.36 per share a year earlier.

Analysts surveyed by Capital IQ projected adjusted EPS of $9.25.

Revenue was $3.14 billion for the quarter, up from $1.01 billion a year ago. The consensus estimate was $2.77 billion.

Looking ahead, the company expects full-year 2021 adjusted EBITDA of $6.2 billion and $6.4 billion, compared with the prior outlook of $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Tough to think ZIM could have done much better. Hope you held, @urbanhack

 ZIM Integrated Shipping Services ( ZIM ) posted Q3 earnings Wednesday of $12.16 per share, up from $1.36 per share a year earlier.

Analysts surveyed by Capital IQ projected adjusted EPS of $9.25.

Revenue was $3.14 billion for the quarter, up from $1.01 billion a year ago. The consensus estimate was $2.77 billion.

Looking ahead, the company expects full-year 2021 adjusted EBITDA of $6.2 billion and $6.4 billion, compared with the prior outlook of $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion.
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I did!  Thanks.

 
So much volatility. I was really red/behind the S&P and now really green/well ahead of the S&P. I definitely feel like we’re going to hit a decent sized dip soon, like 10-15%.

Up 0.69% to be exact right now. Heyyyoooo!

Damn, just looked. This is all Amazon driven. That’s up a bunch and the rest is red as heck.

 
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My basis is under $30. I sold half in the low $61s earlier this year. Exuberance might get it back there, but that feels like the ceiling on this thing. You have to expect shipping to return to some level of normalcy at some point, and you don't want to be a bag holder here. That said, what's that point where things start to normalize? How far out? :shurg:

Add in that, iirc, they said earlier this year that they plan to pay out a significant amount of '21 earnings (50-75%?) in a special dividend at some point in '22, and I'm really not sure what the best course of action is here in the near-term. If it touches that $60 point again, I might consider bailing on the rest. IDK.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
My basis is under $30. I sold half in the low $61s earlier this year. Exuberance might get it back there, but that feels like the ceiling on this thing. You have to expect shipping to return to some level of normalcy at some point, and you don't want to be a bag holder here. That said, what's that point where things start to normalize? How far out? :shurg:

Add in that, iirc, they said earlier this year that they plan to pay out a significant amount of '21 earnings (50-75%?) in a special dividend at some point in '22, and I'm really not sure what the best course of action is here in the near-term. If it touches that $60 point again, I might consider bailing on the rest. IDK.
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But like I said, I've been out of the loop on, well, everything for months, so grain of salt and all that.

 
Todem said:
Taking profits and selling a couple of dogs as well. I am also saving cash. But I am still pouring into my 401K regardless of anything.

No.

I will never touch those ETN’s. Very very dangerous and a great way to lose money fast. You can’t sit on those and wait. They are not meant for buy, hold and wait as they acrue and rollover every day.

Just like Vix and Tvix….you gotta time it perfectly. 95-99% chance you always lose money in those vehicles. 
 
Stay far away from that crap.
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Thanks for all of this. Quick follow up. If I have a portion of my tax-deferred retirement money in bonds, I should trim that allocation, is that right? I am thinking that rates must rise soon and so bonds will suffer. More pointedly, any thoughts on buying puts against the TLT?

 
pecorino said:
Thanks for all of this. Quick follow up. If I have a portion of my tax-deferred retirement money in bonds, I should trim that allocation, is that right? I am thinking that rates must rise soon and so bonds will suffer. More pointedly, any thoughts on buying puts against the TLT?
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I would trim your fixed income holdings as well. Bond prices will go down when interest rates go up. 

Puts against the 10 Year Treasury is a good move. It will only go up.....and has been. 

Things are going to be changing soon. They have too. We can’t sustain this easy monetary policy and expect inflation to not stop rising in a low supply, higher wage economy. They have to pump the brakes soon on the economy. And people may not understand why cool down a red hot economy. Well...do you like how expensive everything is getting? Ok....that is why. Gotta recalibrate.  We have been in this easy monetary policy for 13 years running now. Unprecedented. 

The economy will be fine long term. This is going to be a short term event....but much needed. And if the Fed continues to be dovish.....I will deploy my cash back into high quality stocks again....no big deal. But I can’t see this being the case. I have a strong conviction that the Fed is going to pivot shortly. 

We have reached a short term high IMO. Be ready for a swift and fast pull back....deploy the cash....then go long again. 

And of course.....you don’t have to do anything. You can simply sit in your allocation.....ride out the storm and not worry about maneuvering as most people don’t have the time, knowledge and mental toughness to do it without letting emotions interfere. 

I am just sharing a tactical move I have made (we are done raising cash from trimming and reallocating) and I am still between 70-80% invested depending on the time horizon. 

Good luck. Things will be fine. And look for value in the coming weeks, months. It’s coming. 

 
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Todem said:
I would trim your fixed income holdings as well. Bond prices will go down when interest rates go up. 

Puts against the 10 Year Treasury is a good move. It will only go up.....and has been.
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Rates are on a multi-decade downtrend and have still not hit pre-pandemic highs. I would say betting that they will only go up is a pretty risky move.

 
I bought 500 shares of MJ at the suggestion of my brother. Also bought four February TLT $144 puts for $3.40. Will buy more if the price dips. Wasn't sure if January was far enough out so I burned some cash on premium to get to February.

 
beef said:
I should sell my DKNG too but I'm being extra stubborn and still have 25% to give up in my Roth before I go red.  DT account is ugly.  Possible tax whack in December.

Have META in my Roth.  Recent buy for me and a long.  Plan to cut some from ARKK (Largest Roth holding) and move to META.  

Is it a IRA thing as to why you don't just buy the real thing?
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I don't understand the question.

 
I thought BITF was the new Bitcoin ETF when I responded.  If an IRA, sure, otherwise I like the real thing better.

 
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Capella said:
People who bought Rivian at uhhhh… [checks notes] 172 a share must be panicking right now 
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I’ll bet there are a few thousand folks who bought GME in the $400s then AMC at $70 and then RIVN above $160. I’d love to meet one just to see what they are thinking.

 
beef said:
I thought BITF was the new Bitcoin ETF when I responded.  If an IRA, sure, otherwise I like the real thing better.
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Yeah, I bought this for my IRA.  I don't know how to buy a bitcoin, I wouldn't know where to store it, i would be worried it would get stolen, etc. 

 
General Malaise said:
Yeah, I bought this for my IRA.  I don't know how to buy a bitcoin, I wouldn't know where to store it, i would be worried it would get stolen, etc. 
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It's basically exactly the same as buying stock.  Coinbase or the other major exchange's websites are laid out basically exactly the same as your equity brokerage.  Limit/market orders, etc.  All the same.

 
BassNBrew said:
Well for better or worse, I just went on a buying spree.  Deployed about 1/4 of my cash.
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identikit said:
Details....
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FLGT - Bought bought 10% of what I sold yesterday $7 cheaper.

UWMC - Limit tripped at $5.51.  I may be one of the top 10 shareholders now.  I'm officially getting worried that something shady is up here.  CEO sounds like he gets it, but may be a snake oil salesman.  @Chadstroma are you still in love with there guys?

LYB - An @Todem selection.  PE = 5, Dividend = 5%.  Bought at $91.55 replacing the shares I sold two days ago at $95.84 when I was trying to raise cash.  I'll continue to add on weakness.

ZOM - I've made some money previously trading this by acquiring on the dips.  I would not suggest following.

TLRY - It was down over 12% when I bought at $10.84.  

T - 52 week low.  I know people hate it and they are spinning off businesses.  Results last quarter were strong, we have to be near the floor.

ETHE - Always add $100 in cypto on any day I see a 5% pullback.  Just a sliver of my portfolio.

SOFI - $20.25.  Just increased my position by 5%  I'll double down every further $2 drop.

DNMR - $14.12, down about 13% at the time.  I love the clearance rack

DM - $6.76.  I've chased this down from the mid-$20s...ouch.  Lately I've done well on this stock buying the big dips.  Sold all my $6 and $7 shares around $9 10 days ago.  

BFLY - $8.40.  Cathie Wood loves it...ouch.  It's bounces around a lot, looking for a Santa rally.

KALA - $1.81.  Made some money buying this around this price point last month.

 
BassNBrew said:
UWMC - Limit tripped at $5.51.  I may be one of the top 10 shareholders now.  I'm officially getting worried that something shady is up here.  CEO sounds like he gets it, but may be a snake oil salesman.  @Chadstroma are you still in love with there guys?
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The more I've looking into this, the more I feel like the capital structure is the big short-medium term issue. The float is so low that institutions are not holding it and it is very vulnerable to shorts.

It seems like the solution is for the CEO to continue to sell of stock (like he did this week precipitating the selloff) to investors. Of course, this means that he is selling at a much worse price than he would have gotten for giving up more equity in the de-SPAC transaction.

 
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Desert_Power said:
The more I've looking into this, the more I feel like the capital structure is the big short-medium term issue. The float is so low that institutions are not holding it and it is very vulnerable to shorts.

It seems like the solution is for the CEO to continue to sell of stock (like he did this week precipitating the selloff) to investors. Of course, this means that he is selling at a much worse price than he would have gotten for giving up more equity in the de-SPAC transaction.
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@Desert_Power you nailed it.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzxVhkBYOWg

I love this guy..  Just gave the market a big middle finger.  You don't want more shares available and want to discount the current shares...we'll just flip the script and buy them on the cheap.  

UWM Holdings Corporation Announces Intent To Accelerate Buyback In Public Market In Lieu Of Previously Announced Secondary Offering And Concurrent Stock Repurchase >UWMC

BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
— 9:46 PM ET 11/18/2021

UWM Holdings Corporation Announces Intent to Accelerate Buyback in Public Market in Lieu of Previously Announced Secondary Offering and Concurrent Stock Repurchase PONTIAC, Mich.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--November 18, 2021--

UWM Holdings Corporation ( UWMC ) (the "Company") announced today that SFS Holding Corp, ("SFS"), its principal shareholder, has terminated the previously announced secondary offering of Class A Common Stock and concurrent stock repurchase effective immediately (the "Offering"). The Offering was intended to increase UWMC's public float by approximately 50%, thereby making it a more liquid, tradable stock for larger indexes and institutional investors, while at the same time utilizing the Company's buyback authorization to reduce the number of fully diluted shares outstanding. However, the market's reaction to the Offering resulted in a share price level at which SFS is not willing to sell. With the termination of the Offering, no shares of common stock will be sold by SFS at this time. Instead, the Company intends to accelerate its previously announced buyback program and defer its plans to increase public float to a later date.

Mat Ishbia, the Company's Chairman and CEO stated: "As the principal owner of SFS, I was willing to sell a percentage of our ownership in UWM at less than what I think to be fair value because we were advised that increased float in the public market would be beneficial for the UWMC shareholders, including its largest shareholder, SFS. I was also willing to have SFS sell additional shares to the Company at the same time and price to make good on our buyback commitment and reduce the number of shares outstanding without also decreasing the public float. Unfortunately, while there was more than enough demand from potential investors, the overall market conditions were such that the prices offered were not at levels that I will entertain."

Mr. Ishbia continued, "We are very proud of our financial and operational results both in the third quarter and in prior quarters. I believe, both as the CEO of UWM and the controlling shareholder of UWMC, that the Company is poised for even better performance in the upcoming quarters. We will be aggressive with utilizing our remaining buyback authorization at these prices and if the market returns to a reasonable level, SFS will be willing to do its part by providing availability to increase the public float, but the terms have to make sense, and doing a deal today at these levels did not make sense to me."
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Hopefully we get a nice bounce tomorrow.

 
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Desert_Power said:
UWMC is actually recalling stock to fight the shorts. It's like a real life Gamestop/AMC fantasy :popcorn:
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Hopefully WallStreetBeatOffs picks up on this and we have ignition.

Short % of Shares Outstanding (Oct 28, 2021) 49.47%

Shares Short (prior month Sep 29, 2021) 410.96M

 
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