What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Stock Thread (31 Viewers)

Buckna said:
Yep, plus at that point a borrower can start negotiating a payment plan or something else like one would normally do if they can't make their payments. Most people are likely to be shocked when they get the bill for the 4 payments and freak out, and then we will see lots of news articles and politicians talking again about this mess. It's one reason why I think there will indeed be more shoes to drop in the future.

The more savvy freeloaders know though that things like foreclosures and pre-foreclosure take a long time and some areas of the country have suspended foreclosure proceedings so banks won't be able to even start the process for a full year. Evictions are normally a much faster process, but many parts of the country have suspended that as well. I am wondering how many mom and pop landlords out there are getting slaughtered. In many cases they can claim a pass through forbearance on their rental property's mortgage if their renter can't pay, but I think it's pretty unlikely most renters will be able to pay their back rent and there are no assets to seize in that case like a house.
Click to expand...
I know a few of these LOL. 

 
Buckna said:
Yep, plus at that point a borrower can start negotiating a payment plan or something else like one would normally do if they can't make their payments. Most people are likely to be shocked when they get the bill for the 4 payments and freak out, and then we will see lots of news articles and politicians talking again about this mess. It's one reason why I think there will indeed be more shoes to drop in the future.

The more savvy freeloaders know though that things like foreclosures and pre-foreclosure take a long time and some areas of the country have suspended foreclosure proceedings so banks won't be able to even start the process for a full year. Evictions are normally a much faster process, but many parts of the country have suspended that as well. I am wondering how many mom and pop landlords out there are getting slaughtered. In many cases they can claim a pass through forbearance on their rental property's mortgage if their renter can't pay, but I think it's pretty unlikely most renters will be able to pay their back rent and there are no assets to seize in that case like a house.
Click to expand...
There are several ways of going about this with your mortgage company.  The best way, and get it in writing, is a forbearance where you get something like 3-4 months where you do not pay the payment, and the payment (principal and interest not taxes and insurance) is added to the end of the loan.  It's like the mortgage payment is paused for a few months.

If you go the route of having things come due after 3 months, then you are at the mercy of the lender if you cant pay it.

If you can not get the payments moved to the end of the loan, then dont do it.

Also get in writing that none of it reported to the credit bureau

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ghostguy123 said:
There are several ways of going about this with your mortgage company.  The best way, and get it in writing, is a forbearance where you get something like 3-4 months where you do not pay the payment, and the payment (principal and interest not taxes and insurance) is added to the end of the loan.  It's like the mortgage payment is paused for a few months.

If you go the route of having things come due after 3 months, then you are at the mercy of the lender if you cant pay it.

If you can not get the payments moved to the end of the loan, then dont do it.
Click to expand...
Good advice for the FBG's here.

I was referring in general to John Q. Public who mostly doesn't know any better that they can negotiate this stuff and get a loan modification in addition to the forbearance.

 
urbanhack said:
As someone who’s never been a big trader or anything to do with the market, I keep moving 500 and 1000 at a time and have been buying up the recommendations in here.  I’m 51 and behind the curve on my retirement and hope this gives me a little shot in the arm for the long term.  Just wanted to say thanks for all the tips.  Cheers.
Click to expand...
You're putting it in a Roth, right?

 
chet said:
Can someone help me with a math problem?  

10 independent events each with an 85% chance of occurring.

What is the probability that it doesn't happen in 9/10 cases?  8/10 cases? 7/10 cases?  etc
Click to expand...
About the same chance of hitting the pick4 tonight and again tomorrow 

 
chet said:
Can someone help me with a math problem?  

10 independent events each with an 85% chance of occurring.

What is the probability that it doesn't happen in 9/10 cases?  8/10 cases? 7/10 cases?  etc
Click to expand...
So if this is a binomial distribution with P(success) = .85, P(failure) = .15, and 10 trials, then

P(9 failures): 10!/(9!1!) * (0.85)^1 * (.15)^9 = .0000003

P(8 failures): 10!/(8!2!) * (0.85)^2 * (.15)^8 = .000008

P(7 failures): 10!/(7!3!) * (0.85)^3 * (.15)^7 = .0001

etc.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
caustic said:
I copied it down a little while ago:

AMZN 

AAPL

GOOGL

NFLX

FB

INTC

HD

CSCO

EXC

LMY

MSFT

PFE

PG

TGT

CAT

PM

MCD

YUM

DOW

BRK.B

DEO

GIS

JPM

PFE

UTX

EMR

VZ

T

GCV

PEO

ADX

Bigger Gambles:

WYNN

DAL

CCL

CHDN

FUN
Click to expand...
LMY was a typo it is LMT (Lockheed Martin)

 
Bob Sacamano said:
The big Johnson across the pond isn't doing so well as a result of C19. Chet thinks a high profile person like that recovering as a result of a PRO-140 would benefit CYDY
Click to expand...
If this stuff is getting shipped to Boris...well oh boy. BEEP BEEP BEEP.... BACK UP THE BRINKS TRUCK

 
-OZ- said:
What's the underlying value in TVIX? 

Or is it simply a bet on volatility?
Click to expand...
Weighted average of first and second month VIX futures x 2.  It's double bet on volitility.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Ref said:
What do they do?  They dividend out all the profits or something?  Not much in cash or historical retained earnings but they are profitable.
Click to expand...
They were not year round when I was in that area.  In 1988, my senior year in high school 4 of us went there when we skipped school and pretty much had the place to ourselves.  We had to ride everything in the front because no one else was there.  It was May 5th if I remember right.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Ref said:
I mean fiscally what do they do.  Seems like they are highly leveraged - buying new places and dividending out all the cash.
Click to expand...
I am ignorant to the financials.  They run a good park and grown enormously by always having something new.  Poor persons northern Disney?  But no merch.

 
Golf Guy 69 said:
I am ignorant to the financials.  They run a good park and grown enormously by always having something new.  Poor persons northern Disney?  But no merch.
Click to expand...
Not close, Disney is an entertainment conglomerate. Parks are just a small piece of the business. 

Still, I might buy some anyway.

Forward dividend of 23%‽ Is everyone expecting them to go under this year? Understand completely that there's risk for 2020.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
BassNBrew said:
Here is a huge problem.....

A broad coalition of mortgage and finance industry leaders on Saturday sent a plea to federal regulators, asking for desperately needed cash to keep the mortgage system running, as requests from borrowers for the federal mortgage forbearance program are pouring in at an alarming rate.

The Cares Act mandates that all borrowers with government-backed mortgages—about 62% of all first lien mortgages according to Urban Institute—be allowed to delay at least 90 days of monthly payments and possibly up to a year’s worth.

Those payments would then have to be made at a later time through a payment plan. Servicers are granting the payment deferrals to borrowers with no questions asked, as is required by the law, but the servicers still have to pay mortgage bond holders.

In normal times, they have enough to cover these payments, and, in fact, at the end of last year the mortgage delinquency rate was near a record low, according to CoreLogic. Now that rate is skyrocketing, and servicers do not have nearly enough cash to cover those payments to bondholders. —Diana Olick
Click to expand...
People get an extension to pay their mortgage, but the servicers still have to pay the investors.  The servicers are going to run out of cash.
Click to expand...
Federal Government should cover the difference on bonds they have backstopped, IMO.  A meltdown in the MBS market would be quite a cherry on top of this #### sundae though.

 
[icon] said:
Tried to buy at close and Fidelity demanded I read and sign some waiver before I can trade it. Can't help but feel like I missed a window. 
Click to expand...
No telling.  It's a 1x short, so nothing crazy about it at all.  Tracks good, to.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
siffoin said:
We are likely to move back in to the LT channel after today (assuming no end of day sell off).  On the LT trend I would consider it neutral.  Leaning heavily towards bearish.  I've said many times over the years that the LT trend would (should) take a number of months to flip trend.  There was heavy damage done last month.  In addition, the natural reaction early in a trend flip would be a move back towards the highs (or what is now considered resistance (back in Feb these levels were support).  It is very common to see massive bull moves within a bear market too.  A move towards $SPY $278ish would be very natural.  What happens when we get there?  If you are asking me, the person, This is my speculation nothing more, except relating to how trends and markets work.

I would lean that the LT trend is likely to flip in the next month or 2.  The next bearish trend would last for some time. How long?  Probably a lot longer than most of you are thinking.  How long until we get back to the old highs?  Probably a lot longer than most of you guys are thinking.  I think some of the companies you guys are talking about will be BIG winners coming out of this over the next 12-24 months.  I also think some of the companies you guys are talking about will be BIG losers coming out of this too.

Understand - In Jan 2020, the $XYZ Company might have been trading at $100. And today it is trading at $50.  Just because it was trading at $100, doesn't mean it was actually worth $100.  Nor does it mean that once this is over that it will once again be trading at $100.  The true value of $XYZ might actually be $25 or maybe even $0. At some point in time price and value meet.

I've spent a good amount of time over the past weeks seeking Value.  Even at these prices it isn't easy to come by.  For instance, in a scan of all companies in the SP500 done last week, I found only 36 that are under-valued measured by traditional value metrics.  Remember Fundamentals tell you what to buy and Technicals tell you when to buy it.

Back in Mid-Feb when I sent out the $GYPR - I mentioned that fair value was $SPY at $280ish.  And that was BEFORE accounting for a Current and Post Pandemic World.

What happens next?  I honestly am not smart enough to know the future.  The LT Trend hasn't confirmed a flip...but I think it is probable in the next month or 2.  I'm leaning cautious and been writing puts myself - looking for value and trend to come together.  It's a different approach than most.
Click to expand...
Can you give us the stocks the you think we are overvaluing and will not come back like we are anticipating.  I think we all know this is just your analysis and as grown people we can make our own decisions.  

Having said that, I would love your insight.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Warrior said:
Shhh. Everyone here loves pretending they know what's going to happen and hoping to look smart by guaranteeing that we will "re-test the lows" and similar buzz words. 
Click to expand...
Yes--and you are soo right saying that gold was a garbage investment a month ago.  Let's not throw rocks in glass houses.  Nobody knows what this market is going to exactly do--including yourself. 

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/673466-stock-thread/?do=findComment&comment=22536973

 
fantasycurse42 said:
The biggest issue with measuring fundamentals right now is that we really don't know where companies are. We have no clue what the E in P/E is... Once we figure that out, then we can start figuring out fundamental entrances.

@siffoin, curious how you're looking at fundamentals with so many unknowns right now?
Click to expand...
Not that you asked me but I think you have to just use 2019 earnings as a starting point. I think 2020 numbers are going to be meaningless apart from the magnitude. In an ideal world, probably try to model out 2021 earnings based of 2019, figure out how resilient earnings would be and what demand will be down. But that seems tough so I think you almost have to use 2019 numbers. I also think it shows the importance of using EV multiples so you can take into account debt and leverage a bit more than just earnings. 

I mean most historical factor models incorporate trailing numbers since estimates aren't really reliable and the CAPE is based on 10-year trailing numbers. 

 
Warrior said:
Shhh. Everyone here loves pretending they know what's going to happen and hoping to look smart by guaranteeing... that we will "re-test the lows" and similar buzz words. 
Click to expand...
The futures were never more than slightly positive (and a little more than that negative now) but I agree with the bolded.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Let's be fair. If anyone here really knew where things were going, we probably wouldn't be posting on a message board. (Or maybe some of us would post more). But even the billionaires that are paid to do this for a living seemed to be super long going into this and underestimated this thing the whole way down. 

 
bear rally? AMZN $2k, seems more like markets are going right back to bull

".... but the body count ... and small business closings...."

Wall Street doesn't care. Recession / depression is over.

We all have too much money and this recession was non genuine ... all covid 19.

So many missed opportunities  waiting for the last "leg down" that all the experts want to talk about. Yeah, that's not happening.

 
Bossman said:
bear rally? AMZN $2k, seems more like markets are going right back to bull

".... but the body count ... and small business closings...."

Wall Street doesn't care. Recession / depression is over.

We all have too much money and this recession was non genuine ... all covid 19.

So many missed opportunities  waiting for the last "leg down" that all the experts want to talk about. Yeah, that's not happening.
Click to expand...
:unsure:

 
Bossman said:
bear rally? AMZN $2k, seems more like markets are going right back to bull

".... but the body count ... and small business closings...."

Wall Street doesn't care. Recession / depression is over.

We all have too much money and this recession was non genuine ... all covid 19.

So many missed opportunities  waiting for the last "leg down" that all the experts want to talk about. Yeah, that's not happening.
Click to expand...
Exactly what a bear market rally looks like. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Andrew74
2024 FBG Stock Contest
2 3
Replies
104
Views
3K
KGB
KGB
Andrew74
2023 FBG Stock Contest
2
Replies
98
Views
5K
KGB
KGB
KGB
Crypto vs stock market
Replies
10
Views
959
Dr. Octopus
Dr. Octopus

Users who are viewing this thread

  • ... and 2 more.
    • Total: 32 (members: 11, guests: 21)
    Top