Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Stock Thread


Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, siffoin said:

$TAIL was AWESOME back in Feb.  I mean just a near perfect setup.  I don't think you'll get as much juice now.  Is an Emini contract doable?  What about a Micro-Emini.  I think those are available on major brokerages (but not sure 100%).

Again.  99.9999999999999% of you guys should just do what you do.  Over the past 5-6 weeks, I've come to the conclusion, my philosophy is quite different from most.  I enjoy reading what you guys do however.

just curious your philosophy in 6000 words or less.  if that's possible.

always like your take.

kudos big time.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, shadrap said:

just curious your philosophy in 6000 words or less.  if that's possible.

always like your take.

kudos big time.

 

sorry man.  you explained earlier.

Thanks big time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Moonlight said:

According to this mind blowing results re: leronlimab to be published in Nature magazine.

https://youtu.be/3-vpwiqK9g4

This stuff is so crazy to me.  One hand we have if you believe some of the press literally a save the world medicine candidate (not to mention cancer, hiv, etc).  On the other hand, with this enormous potential hanging there some geek that calls himself the Knight King can drive the stock price down 20%.

One is going to be very wrong...biggest gambling "bet" I've ever made but I like the R/R

Edited by djmich
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, djmich said:

This stuff is so crazy to me.  One hand we have if you believe some of the press literally a save the world medicine candidate (not to mention cancer, hiv, etc).  On the other hand, with this enormous potential hanging there some geek that calls himself the Knight King can drive the stock price down 20%.

One is going to be very wrong...biggest gambling "bet" I've ever made but I like the R/R

Meg Tirrell also tweeted negatively about Nader today so its not just the Night King.  Of course it was the Night King's article in her tweet.  

 

Edited by Jefferson the Caregiver
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, gocats said:

Thoughts on Boeing and Airbus?

Boeing is a darling of this thread.  It's not for me.  Why?  Through the marvel of financial engineering $BA's stock went to all time highs a year ago (around $450) by issuing debt to buy back shares.  All the while sales growth imploded.  On top of this their newest flagship product - through the ineptitude of management - crashes and kills people.  We are in the very early stages of what is likely a new paradigm for travel.  The greatest investor of all time said as recently as Saturday "there are just too many planes." The slope of the trend is so downwardly negative if it were a ski slope the most extreme skier could not ski it.  With that said - the move down has been so violent that it is possible to make a significant profit with a much shorter time frame than the "investors" time frame.  You better be nimble as #### to do that.  Hard pass for me.

Put it another way - imagine Boeing went on Shark Tank...give me the compelling reason they could get someone to invest.  Just because this stock was priced at $450 12 months ago doesn't mean it's ever going back there again - certainly not anytime soon.  If you are looking for a triple there are so many great companies, with a great future story, with great management,that have been beaten down that have far greater odds of hitting a home run 2-5 years from now. Why not find and invest in those?  $BA is a herd stock.  There are others you guys discuss too.  It worries me.  The herd is potentially about to be slaughtered.  I take ZERO pleasure in that. (side note: you guys discuss some great stocks too...many of your plays are great imo...a few are ####)

If your analysis consists of $XYX is priced at $13 today and 6 months ago it was priced at $45 so it must be a bargain.  Is not the best way to be successful.  We are on the precipice of what might be a very dangerous time.  I might be wrong...and if/when I am there will be plenty of opportunity.  I don't want for anyone to be panicked into selling or move into the mindset of "forget the cheese let me out of the trap".  There are very solid opportunities right now, and many more that may unfold over the next months.  I urge caution and thought-thru strategy to find and act on that opportunity.

  • Like 7
  • Love 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, sporthenry said:

Tanker earnings start tomorrow with DHT. Looks like they're up 5-10% across the board. I nibbled some more this morning. Probably over filled and trying to make up for missing the bottom in some other stuff. Earnings should be great but who knows what the reaction will be. 

Q1 should be better than Q4 2019 but I don't expect it to be a blowout. Much of the charters were already booked in 2019 and February was a soft month in the spot. Q2 guidance will be important for all of the tankers. It will help me decide which ones to trim and whether I'm going to sell some holdings into strength tomorrow or continue to hold.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, siffoin said:

Boeing is a darling of this thread.  It's not for me.  Why?  Through the marvel of financial engineering $BA's stock went to all time highs a year ago (around $450) by issuing debt to buy back shares.  All the while sales growth imploded.  On top of this their newest flagship product - through the ineptitude of management - crashes and kills people.  We are in the very early stages of what is likely a new paradigm for travel.  The greatest investor of all time said as recently as Saturday "there are just too many planes." The slope of the trend is so downwardly negative if it were a ski slope the most extreme skier could not ski it.  With that said - the move down has been so violent that it is possible to make a significant profit with a much shorter time frame than the "investors" time frame.  You better be nimble as #### to do that.  Hard pass for me.

Put it another way - imagine Boeing went on Shark Tank...give me the compelling reason they could get someone to invest.  Just because this stock was priced at $450 12 months ago doesn't mean it's ever going back there again - certainly not anytime soon.  If you are looking for a triple there are so many great companies, with a great future story, with great management,that have been beaten down that have far greater odds of hitting a home run 2-5 years from now. Why not find and invest in those?  $BA is a herd stock.  There are others you guys discuss too.  It worries me.  The herd is potentially about to be slaughtered.  I take ZERO pleasure in that. (side note: you guys discuss some great stocks too...many of your plays are great imo...a few are ####)

If your analysis consists of $XYX is priced at $13 today and 6 months ago it was priced at $45 so it must be a bargain.  Is not the best way to be successful.  We are on the precipice of what might be a very dangerous time.  I might be wrong...and if/when I am there will be plenty of opportunity.  I don't want for anyone to be panicked into selling or move into the mindset of "forget the cheese let me out of the trap".  There are very solid opportunities right now, and many more that may unfold over the next months.  I urge caution and thought-thru strategy to find and act on that opportunity.

If you and @Todem ever decide to start a hedge fund, please just take all my money.  

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
  • Love 1
  • Laughing 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, commoncents said:

Q1 should be better than Q4 2019 but I don't expect it to be a blowout. Much of the charters were already booked in 2019 and February was a soft month in the spot. Q2 guidance will be important for all of the tankers. It will help me decide which ones to trim and whether I'm going to sell some holdings into strength tomorrow or continue to hold.

Yes, you are correct. That is what I meant. The earnings announcement as a whole. Although will be interesting to see how strong 1Q is sequentially since Q4 was a strong quarter itself. Will also be interesting to see if they provide guidance. Given volatility in the day rates, I feel like they'll be vague or give it indirectly. That way, they can also use cash to buy back shares at somewhat deflated levels if they wanted to play that game. I'm just worried if guidance is a blowout and price action sucks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

Between them though, they'd struggle as to whether or not invest in Boeing, lol. 

What we would have ended up doing is buying married puts to hedge our position. Right @siffoin?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, chet said:

Does anyone have access to the full Stat News article on CYDY that was written by Adam Feuerstein and released this am?

Seems like it’s behind a paywall (which is probably the point).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Yes, you are correct. That is what I meant. The earnings announcement as a whole. Although will be interesting to see how strong 1Q is sequentially since Q4 was a strong quarter itself. Will also be interesting to see if they provide guidance. Given volatility in the day rates, I feel like they'll be vague or give it indirectly. That way, they can also use cash to buy back shares at somewhat deflated levels if they wanted to play that game. I'm just worried if guidance is a blowout and price action sucks. 

I was also worried that great earnings and good guidance would lead to no price action. But today's jump in price was promising. The tanker sector has traded inverse to the price of oil for the past month or so, but oil jumped and the tankers weren't impacted. It's possible that people are trying to front run the algo's prior to earnings and/or there are theories floating out there that the Reddit subforum had a lot to do with the jump today. If that's the case, we may see more momentum in the tanker sector through earnings season *crossing fingers*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, The Ref said:

Seems like it’s behind a paywall (which is probably the point).

Signed up for a free trial. PMs are open. Didn't see much that hasn't been tweeted about elsewhere. A former exec talked about "maraviroc" which apparently is a GlaxoSmithKline drug and, in his view, similar to LeronLimab. Said former executive is confused why GSK wouldn't be pushing it if they thought it had the ability to help.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, McBokonon said:

I just tried to. What was your interpretation? I mean, I have my own because I totally understood every single word and wasn't at all completely confused. I'm just interested in your take. :oldunsure:

When you're finished, may I suggest Catalytic cleavage of HEAT and subsequent covalent binding of the tetralone moiety by the SARS-CoV-2 main protease.

  • Laughing 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Meg Tirrell also tweeted negatively about Nader today so its not just the Night King.  Of course it was the Night King's article in her tweet.  

 

People are slamming her tweet pretty hard so that’s good.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, commoncents said:

I was also worried that great earnings and good guidance would lead to no price action. But today's jump in price was promising. The tanker sector has traded inverse to the price of oil for the past month or so, but oil jumped and the tankers weren't impacted. It's possible that people are trying to front run the algo's prior to earnings and/or there are theories floating out there that the Reddit subforum had a lot to do with the jump today. If that's the case, we may see more momentum in the tanker sector through earnings season *crossing fingers*

I sold out of a lot of my tanker shares this afternoon when they were up.

My (most likely incorrect) theory is that there are so many people in these stocks right now that normally wouldn't be (IE that certain reddit sub) that people are going to be disappointed when Q1 earnings aren't to the moon like all the headlines they were reading (which we won't really see until Q2) and there will be a big selloff.  Then I will buy them back as they slow burn up over the next few months as we head towards Q2 reports.

There may even be a window in AH where things tank a bit after earnings come out and then spike back on guidance a few mins later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Meg Tirrell also tweeted negatively about Nader today so its not just the Night King.  Of course it was the Night King's article in her tweet.  

 

Lots and lots of short posts on investor message boards re CYDY. Some disguised as longs. Looked up some of the more strident posters history and found numerous posts attacking a variety of emerging biotechs or on the other hand only negative posts about a certain stock going back for half a year or more.

Intermixed with these were folks just simply puzzled by NP's actions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/25/2020 at 3:44 AM, chet said:
On 2/24/2020 at 8:35 PM, Whyatt said:

Oh man, what did I get myself into sharing my opinion on this stock? I’m basically playing the “Don’t Pass” line on the craps table, being that $#@&-head!!
 

Chet there is logic behind this reasoning. What I would say to this is all the drugs which fail in the clinic have a very good to great story behind them, you just don’t hear about them. There is already an approved CCR5 drug on the market, Maraviroc, any idea if this drug is being considered for corona virus? Maraviroc Is a small molecule drug , I’d need to investigate if this makes a difference. But basically we can tell ourselves the same story about Maraviroc.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-who-remdesivir/index.html 

Seems to be the current front runner, Gilead market cap was up $4 billion today in the way down market. I’ve read theIr clinical trial in progress includes hundreds of patients.

There are practical considerations as well. Could CYDY even meet the demand for the drug? No way they could charge what they are planning for HIV. 

Maraviroc has nasty side effects:

Quote

 

Maraviroc Side Effects

a light-headed feeling, like you might pass out;

chest pressure, tight feeling in your neck or jaw, sweating, pain spreading to your arm or shoulder; or.

liver problems--loss of appetite, upper stomach pain, itching, dark urine, clay-colored stools, jaundice (yellowing of the skin or eyes).

 

 

Maraviroc discussion from 2+ months ago.... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Whyatt said:

Maraviroc discussion from 2+ months ago.... 

I appreciate different viewpoints but it would be nice if you could expand on your thoughts vs just bumping a thread from 2 months and appearing cryptic and waiting for people to ask for further details.  Seems par for the course.  Again I think different opinions and viewpoints and having discussions are great but also appreciate transparency.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I sold out of a lot of my tanker shares this afternoon when they were up.

My (most likely incorrect) theory is that there are so many people in these stocks right now that normally wouldn't be (IE that certain reddit sub) that people are going to be disappointed when Q1 earnings aren't to the moon like all the headlines they were reading (which we won't really see until Q2) and there will be a big selloff.  Then I will buy them back as they slow burn up over the next few months as we head towards Q2 reports.

There may even be a window in AH where things tank a bit after earnings come out and then spike back on guidance a few mins later.

Your theory is certainly plausible. I think that a lot of the weak hands were washed out in the latter half of last week. Many of the recreational investors got caught up in the NAT buying spree.

Today's price action was promising as the tanker stocks seem to attract day traders/swing traders due to the volatility. They would gap up at the open and then the traders would sell off their positions and the prices would move down during the rest of the day. It looked to be the case when oil went positive, but there was support that pushed the prices higher.

It is possible that people are buying before earnings and looking to sell on the pop. I'm hoping that the stock price jumps, algorithms which aren't following the daily spot rates/contango/etc. jump in, and the shorts get squeezed.

It's unfortunate that DHT is leading off the tanker earnings as they have been conservative and have reduced their exposure to the spot market by accepting 12+ month time charters.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Taxguy said:

I appreciate different viewpoints but it would be nice if you could expand on your thoughts vs just bumping a thread from 2 months and appearing cryptic and waiting for people to ask for further details.  Seems par for the course.  Again I think different opinions and viewpoints and having discussions are great but also appreciate transparency.

I’m happy to expand on the thought. I think it’s likely that since I’m closer to this work and speak with others in it all day long, I just don’t realize I’m being cryptic.

Pharmaceutical compounds are developed to impact a target, in Leronlimab‘s case the target is the CCR5 receptor, as is maraviroc. These are considered a “class” of drugs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCR5_receptor_antagonist#Other_CCR5_antagonists

In some cases the drugs in a class are quite similar, (see boner pills), but in other cases significant differences in potency, effectiveness, and side effects exist. By the way viagra is in trials for Coronavirus.

 I think if Dr Patterson is correct and CCR5 is the perfect drug for Coronavirus, it’s fair to wonder about maraviroc, which is on market currently. I didn’t read the Stat article, but wildcat mentioned that was brought up. Quite honestly, if it’s a thought that came to my mind, clinicians in the industry would be thinking much deeper on this. 

Chet mentions side effects in his reply. It would be my opinion that if maraviroc had significant clinical benefit for Coronavirus, patients would deal with the side effects. It’s a moot point at the moment, as I don’t believe maraviroc is being studied at this time. 

Edited by Whyatt
Typo
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, siffoin said:

$TAIL was AWESOME back in Feb.  I mean just a near perfect setup.  I don't think you'll get as much juice now.  Is an Emini contract doable?  What about a Micro-Emini.  I think those are available on major brokerages (but not sure 100%).

Again.  99.9999999999999% of you guys should just do what you do.  Over the past 5-6 weeks, I've come to the conclusion, my philosophy is quite different from most.  I enjoy reading what you guys do however.

I’ve been dabbling with trading currencies and have access to Eminis. What’s the play? S&P emini?

Edited by JerseyToughGuys
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, commoncents said:

Q1 should be better than Q4 2019 but I don't expect it to be a blowout. Much of the charters were already booked in 2019 and February was a soft month in the spot. Q2 guidance will be important for all of the tankers. It will help me decide which ones to trim and whether I'm going to sell some holdings into strength tomorrow or continue to hold.

If you don’t mind, share which ones you trim. In face the same challenge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everything green heading into the open.  CAKE up 5%.

BLMN down 5%???  Something happening with them?

HTZ going from down 30% pre market now going way up from that.  Maybe green by open?  Something about NOT filing bankruptcy? 

Edited by ghostguy123
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, siffoin said:

Boeing is a darling of this thread.  It's not for me.  Why?  Through the marvel of financial engineering $BA's stock went to all time highs a year ago (around $450) by issuing debt to buy back shares.  All the while sales growth imploded.  On top of this their newest flagship product - through the ineptitude of management - crashes and kills people.  We are in the very early stages of what is likely a new paradigm for travel.  The greatest investor of all time said as recently as Saturday "there are just too many planes." The slope of the trend is so downwardly negative if it were a ski slope the most extreme skier could not ski it.  With that said - the move down has been so violent that it is possible to make a significant profit with a much shorter time frame than the "investors" time frame.  You better be nimble as #### to do that.  Hard pass for me.

Put it another way - imagine Boeing went on Shark Tank...give me the compelling reason they could get someone to invest.  Just because this stock was priced at $450 12 months ago doesn't mean it's ever going back there again - certainly not anytime soon.  If you are looking for a triple there are so many great companies, with a great future story, with great management,that have been beaten down that have far greater odds of hitting a home run 2-5 years from now. Why not find and invest in those?  $BA is a herd stock.  There are others you guys discuss too.  It worries me.  The herd is potentially about to be slaughtered.  I take ZERO pleasure in that. (side note: you guys discuss some great stocks too...many of your plays are great imo...a few are ####)

If your analysis consists of $XYX is priced at $13 today and 6 months ago it was priced at $45 so it must be a bargain.  Is not the best way to be successful.  We are on the precipice of what might be a very dangerous time.  I might be wrong...and if/when I am there will be plenty of opportunity.  I don't want for anyone to be panicked into selling or move into the mindset of "forget the cheese let me out of the trap".  There are very solid opportunities right now, and many more that may unfold over the next months.  I urge caution and thought-thru strategy to find and act on that opportunity.

which safer stocks do you like for a triple?  

 

I mean the crashes look bad but werent they flown by incompetent third world country pilots that couldnt make basic adjustments?  Their backorder of planes has a valuation of $500 billion, a lot of growth possibility for a company with a market cap of $75 billion.  The big risk you are taking is if they can get a bailout without becoming GM which is certainly nothing to sneeze at.  By $XYX you mean $EADSY right?

Edited by gocats
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, siffoin said:

Personally, I'm underwhelmed by anyone who lives by the notion of "you can't time the market."  Probably in the same way of someone telling a meteorologist that "you can't predict the weather."  There are technical tools available to everyone that can and do provide an edge.  If you are interested in the weather it would be foolish to ignore modern tools of meteorology and understand the tools today are vastly different from the Farmers Almanac.  The same is true for technical analysis for the stock market.

If you happen to think my pov is poppycock.  You are a "you can't time the market" and "it's time in the market not timing the market"..that's fine by me. But in that case you should be 100% invested all of the time, and if you're not to me that would signal you have a conflict in your investing belief system.  Conflicts in your investing philosophy are dangerous.  

I'm one of those people, but I do think you can have success doing what you are doing. My "can't time the market" advice is more for people that do not and can not spend the time analyzing the trends that you do. They don't have years of experience doing it. They come into internet message boards to ask if they should sell right now or what day they should get back in. I think those people should just stay fully invested, assuming their allocation is correctly tuned to their risk capacity. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ajinomoto Bio-Pharma Services Announces Manufacturing Partnership with CytoDyn for Drug Product Used in COVID-19 Clinical Trials

Quote

"We are very excited to support CytoDyn's efforts to utilize this promising antibody therapeutic in the fight against COVID-19," said Kristin DeFife, Ph.D., Sr. VP of Operations & Site Head at Ajinomoto Bio-Pharma Services. "This partnership reinforces our company's mission to improve the health of humankind and underscores our vision statement being a leading, trusted, innovative partner to our clients and our people."

 

Edited by Jayrok
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Im out to July on mine, but point taken.  Not trending in right direction.

I’m done with buying puts after I get out of these, I’ve taken a beating over the last month.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
  • Create New...