ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Heck, you don't even need to read the book. Just the read the first customer review on Amazon for it by Inna Tysoe. Great summary.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Stock Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
General Malaise
Footballguy
Right before quarantine, I bought an ounce of shake for $40. Got home and it was all nugs! Couldn't believe it. Made some wonderful cannabis butter with it. Went back a couple months later asking for the same deal; no dice. Guess I got lucky. Seems like flower prices have increased at my dispensary, what are you seeing?What, the price of an ounce is going back up above $50?
Valens <> Flower
sporthenry
Footballguy
Gold is interesting. We seemingly have inflationary policies meeting deflationary pressures. I am of the belief that even if we don't get inflation, the $ is going to be in trouble. So trying to hide some money out in there for any $ weakness because I don't really know where else to put it. BTC? Another currency? I love the CEF play b/c you get silver too. Probably should just look for an uncorrelated hard asset.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
I’ve held AU$ off and on for 10-15 years. I did great early on and the piece I kept has been misery.
General Malaise
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Market rallying on his comment about creating a bubble. Essentially said he doesn't care if he creates one and won't pop it.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Hmm, I'll think about putting a small stake into them. So many companies, but there has been so much shake out already, the survivors should be good unless we get massive regulation that changes. I don't see that those changes coming in Canada, and I'm not sure the buffoons in charge here have that on their radar right now.
As far as ounces, nice score. I haven't been looking as I have about a half pound that I can't get rid of, as I rarely smoke and don't sell.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
CR69
Footballguy
Feel like he was trying not to spook the market but ended up making the problem worse lol.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Wells Fargo or B of A?
Todem
Footballguy
However.....this is where you need to measure risk and return.
BRK’B Standard Deviation = 3.83
S&P 500 Standard Deviation = 15.00
Berkshire Hathaway has about 75% less implied volatility over a 10 year time period. So of course their return will trail those of the S&P 500.
It is not trying to beat the S&P that is for sure.
10 years BRK’B 141% total return
10 years S&P 500 210% total return
Given the standard deviation numbers above......that is typically what kind of performance you should expect. And let’s not forget that 2019 was simply a outlier year in the market. The returns were crazy good on the index’s. So it does skew that number above to heavily favor the S&P.
BRKB did exactly what it’s standard deviation calls for in 2019. It had 2/3rds less return as it has 2/3rds less implied volatility. There was a time when he could outperform with far less volatility. But that is not the case anymore. There are a lot of under the hood factors, economic stimulus factors, interest rate factors that go into risk/return measures.
I never used BRK’B as a comparison to the S&P 500. I think that is a really difficult index to compare against. They are more suitable to be compared to a 50/50 growth and income type of index because they go anywhere and hold plenty of cash where the S&P is fully invested at all times.
In fact they are currently 60/35/5 stocks/cash/fixed income
Apples to Oranges.
Last edited by a moderator:
Todem
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
So the Fed sees the need for as much stimulus as possible but Congress sees no need for further stimulus. Meanwhile, monetary stimulus flows through the financial system first (which seems to be humming along) while fiscal stimulus would seemingly directly impact the 20mn unemployed.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Familiar with it, but haven't owned it. If I'm betting on one Canadian weed stock to make it big, I'm rolling with Valens.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I think MediPharm is going to poop the bed badly. Hope you don't own that one.
Well, like I said, that $40/Oz of shake was a one-off. I think I just got really lucky. Last time out I bought a half OZ for $110 - better quality and historically a good price, but it seems like pot prices are on the rise again here.
I rarely smoke flower anymore. Make my own butter with it for edible consumption which is more economical and longer lasting. We should grab @urbanhack and make a giant vat of butter with your flower like a cauldron of witches.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
All good points.
Long term I don’t want the be in a company carrying 35% cash if I’m investing in the stock market. I could see where this might make sense if you have a 3-5 yr time frame. Otherwise invest in stocks in your brokerage account and keep you cash in the bank.
I like Buffet and listen closely to want he says. I just think his reputation as a stock genius is a little exaggerated. Todem from fbgs has been wearing him out. While you may disagree, I think his company is so large that it’s hard to perform. There are times he has to file/disclose his purchases/sales.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
I'd be up to that. It's a few years old, and about four varieties. Another sign of getting old, I rarely feel inclined to get high as I usually end up in the couch.I think MediPharm is going to poop the bed badly. Hope you don't own that one.
Well, like I said, that $40/Oz of shake was a one-off. I think I just got really lucky. Last time out I bought a half OZ for $110 - better quality and historically a good price, but it seems like pot prices are on the rise again here.
I rarely smoke flower anymore. Make my own butter with it for edible consumption which is more economical and longer lasting. We should grab @urbanhack and make a giant vat of butter with your flower like a cauldron of witches.
sporthenry
Footballguy
And I see no reason why it won't continue to be. It seems like the Fed is going to blow up our reserve currency status to bring us out of this. Just trying to figure out where to put money. Forget if anyone posted Roach's opinion piece on the crash of the dollar.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crash-dollar-coming-210024166.html
As someone who worked in CLO's for over 15 years and finally got out 5 years ago, can't say I disagree with their concerns. Cheap borrowing through low interest rates fed a lot of junk debt and a thirst for yield among many institutions. One of the large problems is the correlation issue, most CLO's are filled with the same loans from the same companies. This problem generally gets worse over time as debt refinances and the CLO has to reinvest its proceeds in whatever is available in the market at the time. All it would take is a few big corporate blow-ups before things got systemic and caused a possible implosion. Recoveries on bankrupt loans used to run around 70% historically but most debt has gone covenant-lite the last few years which removes a lot of the historical protections which kept CLO's healthy during the prior financial downturns.
Last edited by a moderator:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Added more SAVE when it was down near its low for the day, same with BLMN and MGM. In Todem I trust.
Also added a little PLAY.
I need a couple green days.
I have more to add if we go down more, but I prefer greeeeeen
Also added a little PLAY.
I need a couple green days.
I have more to add if we go down more, but I prefer greeeeeen
PennState-JD
Footballguy
Did the same on those and was able to erase 1 days losses on SAVE with some calls when they were 10% down early on. DAL calls up about 20% but hanging on in the hopes of a few positive days in a row.
cosjobs
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
It means it's intern season at banks.
But the carry trade is borrowing in lower interest rate currencies and buying debt in higher interest rate currencies. So they're saying the carry trade is usually positive after manufacturing hits an inflection point. So borrowing in EUR/JPY, converting to USD and buying Treasuries should be positive. Not an FX expert but seems like a lot of things at play that could throw it off.
I can see some credit concerns, but the overal size of the leverage loan market is small in the scheme of things. Not even close to comparable to the MBS market.
The mortgage market was (and is) much larger than the CLO market, so the systemic risk is very different. Additionally, despite having similar acronyms, CLOs aren't full of things like this: In 2006, almost 70% of the collateral of newly issued CDOs corresponded to subprime MBS, and a further 15% was backed by other CDOs. Furthermore, more than 40% of the collateral gathered by the CDOs issued that year was not cash MBS, but CDS written on such securities.
There is a point that CLO correlation risk would be higher than expected due to the pandemic, but there is not enough to depete significant bacnk capital buffers. The hedge fund/PE crowd holding lower tranches are more impacted.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
steelerfan1
Footballguy
Still like this at 105 Todem or do we wait for a reset? Saw you were in at the 90s as a good deal. Thanks
McBokonon
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Looks like its gonna be another bloodbath tomorrow for the stuff I picked up more of today.
Yay
Yay
Betterbelieveit
Footballguy
I usually am not the type of person that bets against winning, exception being NERV by accident, but I can't see how these are not going to be ripe soon if not now. Most likely when absorption rate reports start coming out in the third quarter I just can't see how these won't be good plays. Am I wrong? Commercial property should be at their lowest value by then if not longer. If you use some of the comparisons that have been brought up here you have to assume that like the tech boom and bust, commercial office space will be crushed again.
DRV
REK
SRS
DRV
REK
SRS
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
You have a scenario where the government is printing money to no end and an environment to where rates will have to stay crazy low for a long while. If rates don't stay low-- not only is the country screwed--but Wall Street is also screwed with all of the corporate debt that is in the markets. This is pretty bullish for precious metals--namely gold and silver. Because they are already at high levels--there will be days where there is profit taking--but at this point--anybody that has a decent investment in the markets needs to have some exposure to precious metals.
Edit---this is just a gut instinct--but I also like the Canadian Dollar long term.
Last edited by a moderator:
Sand
Footballguy
Saw an article about Warren's son. His only inheritance was 90k worth of BRK in the 70s. He sold it for a music education - did the starving musician thing for a while, but evidently caught on doing work for MTV in the 80s and made a living.
If he's have held his nut would be 300+M now. Says he regrets nothing and used the money for exactly what he wanted out of life.
No point to this, just a good BRK story.
Sand
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
For you options people, here is a pretty extensive article about gamma and it's effect on equities. It's pure 
.
.sporthenry
Footballguy
Yeah, he also sort of cherry picked one of the largest banks in the space. This article (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/leveraged-loan-news/us-banks-clo-security-holdings-near-100b-after-12-jump-in-2019) shows it's really only 3 banks, JPM, WFC, and C that heavily invest in CLOs. And it's mostly AAA held by banks which has never experienced a default. I know the numbers to impair a AAA tranche are pretty crazy. I just did back of the envelope numbers, but with AAA representing ~63% of the entire CLO and assuming a 40% recovery, you'd need 60% default rates to impair AAA. Know it isn't that clean and are other buffers but just as a point of reference.
I'd probably argue that subprime mortgages and subprime corporate debt probably aren't that different with the one meaningful difference being correlation. To your point, this could be a massive default rate environment but that seems unlikely with the Fed. So doubtful you get the default rate on corporate loans that you got on mortgages.
I do think corporate debt could be a bubble but probably won't manifest itself as much in the banks. If anything, it's the shadow banking system. The direct lenders, middle markets and holders of lower CLO tranches. Bank regulation has more or less kept the banks well capitalized but has pushed the risk beneath the surface.
Todem
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Yeah looks like we will be red at the open tomorrow.....but the way this market has behaved that can change in a hurry. I am confident we will trade them again for some quick hits.....but it looks like I was two days early so far.
Oh well......not sweating it. We will rally in these names again sooner than later.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Woof. I'm not in the weeds enough on them but weren't they supposed to be one of the better capitalized? Apart from LUV? I know it isn't a liquidity issue per se but have to imagine docs for other airlines are similar.
Just looked, so the Fixed Charge Ratio is just in the bank document. Banks are usually supportive especially for a blip like this. They likely won't play hardball b/c of fees so as they say in the filing, "We plan to seek and expect to obtain amendments to these credit facilities prior to a breach." The asset coverage test would hit their other facilities which would be a bigger wildcard. It could be like HTZ where the value of rental cars declining is what really drove them under. I have no idea what the value of their assets look like at this point but once you do that, you're really at lender's discretion. They may be more happy to play with DAL than HTZ. But either way, as someone short the airlines, I'll take it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am rooting for big red at the open and then for a close near where things are now. I can dream right?
Even though the last two days have sucked, I have made about 40 separate stonk purchases throughout the day, small amounts, pretty much each time when it was even more red. I actually made a little money yesterday and today(though obviously lost money due to the overnight red). So given the two bloody days I am really only down a few % on what I put in the last couple days........so far.
Last edited by a moderator:
Man In The Box
Footballguy
What do you guys think about QQQ as an ETF in an IRA over the next 15 or so years? My advisor is recommending it as I’m opening a new IRA for my wife. She’s 42.
sporthenry
Footballguy
You're getting in at ATH but tech shows no signs of stopping. Todem knows best but I'd probably leg in (Dollar cost average). So either put a % of each check into it or if you have a select amount, start putting in a portion every few weeks or each month. Market just seems frothy to jump head first right now.
giantcookie
Footballguy
just keep buying substantial dips, ,and it really doesnt matter, you know you'll get your money back on your initial investment eventually and all the dips you buy will be even bigger gains.
(obviously you dont need my advice, but thats how im playing it and my thinking on it)
will buy more around 16 dollars
Last edited by a moderator:
CR69
Footballguy
I have puts on DAL and UAL as well. Bought them a little too early (like my first and second put buys on MGM) but they're certainly looking better right now than they did on Friday...
ETA: I'm not sure either on capital but that was my understanding as well. I primarily based my put buying on the run up and the fares I was seeing when checking various routes. Not to mention TSA numbers are still down like 85% YoY.
Last edited by a moderator:
