Stock Thread

[BassNBrew 10,590]

24 minutes ago, stbugs said:

@BassNBrew Are you still trading FLGT? That stock must be a dream for you. It feels like it moves up and down 5-10% daily. Up almost 9% today.

Yes and thanks for the heads up.  Just trimmed the shares I bought 8-14 for a 17.3% gain.

Hopefully I can buy them back cheaper.

[-OZ- 7,869]

Listened to stacking Benjamin's on my run this morning, they interviewed will rhind, CEO of graniteshares. He talked for a while about HIPS. 

I normally don't like podcasts that come off like a commercial, but SB has been a solid podcast and the concept of a steady 10% dividend has promise. The fund has fallen 28% YTD, for good reason, and it has a high expense ratio, but I like it enough to put a few thousand in for the next few years.

Edited August 20, 2020 by -OZ-

[BassNBrew 10,590]

NRGU is around $3.  This has been a great entry point over the last month.  If OIL prices ever pop this could be a huge winner.  If you don't want to wait, I think 10% profit within 2 weeks is very likely.

[BassNBrew 10,590]

Selling off my NGS.  Wish I'd been following closer and got out earlier at $10.  Entered at $4.70 in April when I saw they were taking the PPP loan.  Knew it would be a long hold (for me) until next earnings.  Selling in the low 9s just short of a double up.  Made three PPP loan plays and all were up at least 50%.  

[stbugs 2,992]

5 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Yes and thanks for the heads up.  Just trimmed the shares I bought 8-14 for a 17.3% gain.

Hopefully I can buy them back cheaper.

I’ve got 500 shares that I got in February and I’m sitting on it long term. It’s funny how stocks move. This was one of my “disappointments” because even though I bought it on the way down, it went way down below $7 and then stayed around where I bought ($15) for months. Now it’s one of my top stocks for the last year.

Now my only long term disappointment just finally went green this week. SWAV that I got in May of last year finally got above $56. I trimmed a bunch to buy other stuff during the down turn but it’s nice to not see red next to what I still have.

[BassNBrew 10,590]

28 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

NRGU is around $3.  This has been a great entry point over the last month.  If OIL prices ever pop this could be a huge winner.  If you don't want to wait, I think 10% profit within 2 weeks is very likely.

Now $2.93

[beef 2,499]

9 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Now $2.93

I added some more NRGU this morning.  I know going long on leveraged ETFs is not a good idea, but I also bought some shares in my Roth I may hold a bit.  

Edited August 20, 2020 by beef

[BassNBrew 10,590]

Thoughts on Zoom?

I started adding two weeks ago and continued to buy on the recent drop.  Last buy was $236 last week.  Today it is trading at $288 new an all time high.  This is one of those stocks that I wouldn't buy in the past because it was very expensive and had seen a huge run up.  It doubled since April.

Seems like another Facebook, Netflix, or even Amazon in the making where even though they aren't making money, everyone is using it.  6 months ago I had never heard the term Zoom meeting and now I hear it everyday.

Would love to hear from the guys who think I should bank my profits because they don't have a great path to create revenue to match this valuation.

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

11 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I’ll take my cookie and go. I’ve got a top MBA program to finish after taking last semester off and a castle to buy in West Palm, my time is limited anyways. My experience and knowledge are fantastic, way beyond my years and wildly under appreciated here. The portfolio I constructed in April is nothing short of fantastic, I’m sure none of you will even go back and find it, but it has been dominating the S&P and is also nicely hedged. Gold I’ve recommended since it was printing an 11 in front of it. 

You don’t like me bc I'm cocky, abrasive, and generally a ####, I really don’t care, I’ve earned it in life, every bit of it.

This forum has been gutted and some of its best posters haven’t been spotted in 12-24 months. The political forum makes my stomach turn trying to read It, yet alone partake in a conversation.

In general, I wish most of you well. A handful of you, meh.

Yea yea, see you tomorrow.

You forgot humble

[-OZ- 7,869]

8 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

You forgot humble

The funny part is he seems to think others here haven't "earned" confidence every bit as much as he thinks he has.

[joker 270]

1 hour ago, beef said:

I jumped in HGEN at opening bell, 500 @ 3.34.  Not much, but enough for a taste and to maybe make a few bucks.  

I already had some but picked up enough to make it an even number - like you, it's not much but worth a shot.

[joker 270]

30 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Now $2.93

Picked some up at $2.95 and will follow along for the ride...

[FreeBaGeL 8,848]

23 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Thoughts on Zoom?

I started adding two weeks ago and continued to buy on the recent drop.  Last buy was $236 last week.  Today it is trading at $288 new an all time high.  This is one of those stocks that I wouldn't buy in the past because it was very expensive and had seen a huge run up.  It doubled since April.

Seems like another Facebook, Netflix, or even Amazon in the making where even though they aren't making money, everyone is using it.  6 months ago I had never heard the term Zoom meeting and now I hear it everyday.

Would love to hear from the guys who think I should bank my profits because they don't have a great path to create revenue to match this valuation.

Facebook made major changes to their platform, at the expense of their users, to start raising revenue a little while after they went public.  They were pretty much the only option in town for social media at the time (and still are for their version of it) so users didn't have an alternative and usership has only continued to rise.

Zoom is operating in such a crowded space I don't see how they can do the same thing.  There are so many alternatives that are just as good and unlike Facebook you're not tied to it to be a part of the community.  I don't see how they can ever bring in the revenue to justify the current market cap ESPECIALLY since they are counting on retail for this as businesses are generally already invested in better options.

That said, the thing is a meme that just keeps on running.  I sold at $275 a few days ago and was feeling pretty good about it as it dipped but now it's right back there and beyond.  To me it's in a similar bucket ot Wayfair, OSTK, etc where I really can't see the justification for the thousands of percent gains but they just keep going.  Who knows where it will end but as we continue to talk about a "bubble" to me it's exactly these kind of stocks that are going to be the thing to pop if it ever does.

Saying all this, it will probably be at $1,000/share by this time next year because that's what this market does.

Edited August 20, 2020 by FreeBaGeL

[BassNBrew 10,590]

2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Facebook made major changes to their platform, at the expense of their users, to start raising revenue a little while after they went public.  They were pretty much the only option in town for social media at the time (and still are for their version of it) so users didn't have an alternative and usership has only continued to rise.

Zoom is operating in such a crowded space I don't see how they can do the same thing.  There are so many alternatives that are just as good and unlike Facebook you're not tied to it to be a part of the community.  I don't see how they can ever bring in the revenue to justify the current market cap ESPECIALLY since they are counting on retail for this as businesses are generally already invested in better options.

That said, the thing is a meme that just keeps on running.  I sold at $275 a few days ago and was feeling pretty good about it as it dipped but now it's right back there and beyond.  To me it's in a similar bucket ot Wayfair, OSTK, etc where I really can't see the justification for the thousands of percent gains but they just keep going.  Who knows where it will end but as we continue to talk about a "bubble" to me it's exactly these kind of stocks that are going to be the thing to pop if it ever does.

So basically the reason I'm hearing the word Zoom so much is that the non-paying consumer is using it and the paying corporate customers are using other/better platforms?

[ChiefD 18,533]

2 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

So basically the reason I'm hearing the word Zoom so much is that the non-paying consumer is using it and the paying corporate customers are using other/better platforms?

My wife's company is using it.

[beef 2,499]

@BassNBrew and others that play MFA.  Trending back down from the $3 range 10 days ago.  Last time I got in was low 2's.  Trying to have a little patience if I jump back in, but not sure low 2's will come again.  Thoughts, and current players???   

Edited August 20, 2020 by beef

[FreeBaGeL 8,848]

7 minutes ago, ChiefD said:

My wife's company is using it.

How large is your wife's company?

I'm sure there are plenty of small businesses looking for an easy solution but up to 100 users is $14.99/month which isn't going to move the needle on a stock with an $80 billion market cap even if every small business in the country used them.

The money in this kind of product is in the enterprise solutions for deep pocketed corporations that don't even look at the price tag when integrating something like this at scale and I would wager that the vast majority of those companies are much more comfortable using the superior video conferencing that comes integrated with whatever ungodly expensive software package they are already using (Microsoft, Cisco, etc).

We joke about TSLA being at 950 P/E but at least they are a clear industry leader in a fast growing sector that has incredible amount of room to run.  Not to mention the easy pivots they can make into the energy sector itself.

ZM is trading at 1500 P/E in a crowded space where there are tons of alternatives and where the best meat on the bone (big corporations) is already mostly off the table.

Edited August 20, 2020 by FreeBaGeL

[ChiefD 18,533]

1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

How large is your wife's company?

I'm sure there are plenty of small businesses looking for an easy solution but up to 100 users is $14.99/month which isn't going to move the needle on a stock with an $80 billion market cap even if every small business in the country used them.

The money in this kind of product is in the enterprise solutions for deep pocketed corporations that don't even look at the price tag when integrating something like this and I would wager that the vast majority (all?) of those companies are much more comfortable using the superior video conferencing that comes integrated with whatever ungodly expensive software package they are already using (Microsoft, Cisco, etc).

They are pretty large. I have no clue how many users they have or what, but that's what she's been using.

I did a quick search on Zoom and it looks like they had 622 million in revenue last year. I have no idea how that translates to stock price. 

[SouthJersey 342]

3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

How large is your wife's company?

I'm sure there are plenty of small businesses looking for an easy solution but up to 100 users is $14.99/month which isn't going to move the needle on a stock with an $80 billion market cap even if every small business in the country used them.

The money in this kind of product is in the enterprise solutions for deep pocketed corporations that don't even look at the price tag when integrating something like this at scale and I would wager that the vast majority of those companies are much more comfortable using the superior video conferencing that comes integrated with whatever ungodly expensive software package they are already using (Microsoft, Cisco, etc).

We joke about TSLA being at 950 P/E but at least they are a clear industry leader in a fast growing sector that has increidble amount of room to run.  Not to mention the easy pivots they can make into the energy sector itself.

ZM is trading at 1500 P/E in a crowded space where there are tons of alternatives and where the best meat on the bone (big corporations) is already mostly off the table.

My wife works at a large university that uses zoom.  My company used WebEx, but multiple clients (larger companies and health systems) are on zoom. My main client transitioned from WebEx to zoom as their online meeting platform this summer.

[BassNBrew 10,590]

fyi...Discover dropped more today than the amount of dividend they paid (44 cents).  We were discussing this when the stock was in the $54 range and I sold most of my holdings between there at $56.  I'll begin requiring around $50.

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Facebook made major changes to their platform, at the expense of their users, to start raising revenue a little while after they went public.  They were pretty much the only option in town for social media at the time (and still are for their version of it) so users didn't have an alternative and usership has only continued to rise.

Zoom is operating in such a crowded space I don't see how they can do the same thing.  There are so many alternatives that are just as good and unlike Facebook you're not tied to it to be a part of the community.  I don't see how they can ever bring in the revenue to justify the current market cap ESPECIALLY since they are counting on retail for this as businesses are generally already invested in better options.

That said, the thing is a meme that just keeps on running.  I sold at $275 a few days ago and was feeling pretty good about it as it dipped but now it's right back there and beyond.  To me it's in a similar bucket ot Wayfair, OSTK, etc where I really can't see the justification for the thousands of percent gains but they just keep going.  Who knows where it will end but as we continue to talk about a "bubble" to me it's exactly these kind of stocks that are going to be the thing to pop if it ever does.

Saying all this, it will probably be at $1,000/share by this time next year because that's what this market does.

What are the better options? I know there's one that scales into the thousands of users better, and they provide you with live support all through your presentation. It's great for the conferences that are getting canceled, where people want to present to large, dispersed groups. Can't remember the company. But it's also thousands of dollars per call iirc. On smaller scale, I don't think anybody's better than Zoom (assuming their security issues are fixed). Does that mean companies are going to switch to them when they already have Teams or Skype? Probably not. Unless they listen to their users. Skype is an abomination.

[stbugs 2,992]

4 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

So basically the reason I'm hearing the word Zoom so much is that the non-paying consumer is using it and the paying corporate customers are using other/better platforms?

Completely incorrect on the second part. If it was all non paying would they be upping their revenue forecasts to $2B a year for next year? This isn’t a case of a company that isn’t making money. Their revenue is skyrocketing because of the pandemic. I’ve used other video conferencing and some of them are awful compared to Zoom like Webex and Google (the worst).

They are clearly in reinvest mode for earnings but acting like they aren’t generating revenue yet is wrong. I think their 2020 revenue is going to triple or quadruple their 2019 revenue.

That said, my ZM is in my taxable account so I don’t plan on selling until October at the earliest to ensure long term capital gains. Their next earnings call is the end of this month and it will be huge as well. Depending on their forecast and we’re the stock is in October, I may trim some.

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

3 minutes ago, SouthJersey said:

My wife works at a large university that uses zoom.  My company used WebEx, but multiple clients (larger companies and health systems) are on zoom. My main client transitioned from WebEx to zoom as their online meeting platform this summer.

And WebEx is worse than Skype imo.

[themeanmachine 263]

31 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Thoughts on Zoom?

I started adding two weeks ago and continued to buy on the recent drop.  Last buy was $236 last week.  Today it is trading at $288 new an all time high.  This is one of those stocks that I wouldn't buy in the past because it was very expensive and had seen a huge run up.  It doubled since April.

Seems like another Facebook, Netflix, or even Amazon in the making where even though they aren't making money, everyone is using it.  6 months ago I had never heard the term Zoom meeting and now I hear it everyday.

Would love to hear from the guys who think I should bank my profits because they don't have a great path to create revenue to match this valuation.

Zoom has grabbed a ton of momentum in the video conferencing industry because it delivered a much better, easier and more feature rich experience than the alternatives. Super easy to use and much more powerful and flexible than most other video chat services, and it was far beyond the video capabilities built into other collaboration tools, such as Microsoft Teams or Google G-Suite.

However, Microsoft, Google and Cisco are catching up very quickly. Microsoft in particular has an extremely aggressive roadmap for new video features within Teams. I still think Zoom is generally a better experience today that's more feature-rich and flexible, but that advantage won't last for long. And while Zoom will continue to add more differentiating features, the alternatives will become at least good enough very quickly.  And the problem for Zoom is that a lot of their customers are buying Zoom on top of one of those other collaboration apps.  A lot of Microsoft Teams customers are paying both Microsoft and Zoom because Zoom was so far ahead and the Teams video experience was limited.  As that gap shrinks, I think many of those customers will get tired of paying two bills, and will consolidate down to just one collaboration app, which will be Teams or G-Suite because Zoom is not a full collaboration app.  

I think it would make a ton of sense for Zoom and Slack to combine so they can offer one unified collaboration service.  But barring that, looking at Zoom's massive valuation in light of the pressures they'll face as competitors catch up would cause me to shy away from the stock.

[STEADYMOBBIN 22 3,999]

12 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I’ll take my cookie and go. I’ve got a top MBA program to finish after taking last semester off and a castle to buy in West Palm, my time is limited anyways. My experience and knowledge are fantastic, way beyond my years and wildly under appreciated here. The portfolio I constructed in April is nothing short of fantastic, I’m sure none of you will even go back and find it, but it has been dominating the S&P and is also nicely hedged. Gold I’ve recommended since it was printing an 11 in front of it. 

You don’t like me bc I'm cocky, abrasive, and generally a ####, I really don’t care, I’ve earned it in life, every bit of it.

This forum has been gutted and some of its best posters haven’t been spotted in 12-24 months. The political forum makes my stomach turn trying to read It, yet alone partake in a conversation.

In general, I wish most of you well. A handful of you, meh.

Yea yea, see you tomorrow.

FWIW, I like you for all the reasons you mention. 

 

[stbugs 2,992]

5 minutes ago, ChiefD said:

They are pretty large. I have no clue how many users they have or what, but that's what she's been using.

I did a quick search on Zoom and it looks like they had 622 million in revenue last year. I have no idea how that translates to stock price. 

They had over $300M last quarter. Their revenue  was growing but it exploded due to WFH. I’m pretty sure they forecast $1B this year and $2B next year.

[BassNBrew 10,590]

15 minutes ago, beef said:

@BassNBrew and others that play MFA.  Trending back down from the $3 range 10 days ago.  Last time I got in was low 2's.  Trying to have a little patience if I jump back in, but not sure low 2's will come again.  Thoughts, and current players???   

I reduced my position at that time by about 50%.  My target price is $4, but will half again at $3.50.  I'm going the patient route and not re-buying what I sold until it's closer to $2.50.  The did cut their dividend from 20 cents a share to 5 cents.

[stbugs 2,992]

12 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

How large is your wife's company?

I'm sure there are plenty of small businesses looking for an easy solution but up to 100 users is $14.99/month which isn't going to move the needle on a stock with an $80 billion market cap even if every small business in the country used them.

The money in this kind of product is in the enterprise solutions for deep pocketed corporations that don't even look at the price tag when integrating something like this at scale and I would wager that the vast majority of those companies are much more comfortable using the superior video conferencing that comes integrated with whatever ungodly expensive software package they are already using (Microsoft, Cisco, etc).

We joke about TSLA being at 950 P/E but at least they are a clear industry leader in a fast growing sector that has incredible amount of room to run.  Not to mention the easy pivots they can make into the energy sector itself.

ZM is trading at 1500 P/E in a crowded space where there are tons of alternatives and where the best meat on the bone (big corporations) is already mostly off the table.

TSLA is a bit different because they have been around a while and have been making money. ZM’s PE is crazy high because a) they are very new and have been reinvesting like crazy (their margins will be like other software companies) and they’ve only had 1 quarter of the hyper growth. Their Q2 earnings forecast is for the same amount as their last 4 quarters combined. They are still in hyper growth mode but by the end of the year that PE should be 1/4 of what it is now and that’s without trying to maximize it yet.

[FreeBaGeL 8,848]

2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

They are clearly in reinvest mode for earnings but acting like they aren’t generating revenue yet is wrong. I think their 2020 revenue is going to triple or quadruple their 2019 revenue.

Does tripling or quadrupling revenue matter when the revenue that we're talking about tripling was $330 million on a company with an $80 billion market cap currently trading at 1500x multiples?

Fundamentally buying Zoom right now to me is a lot like drafting DK Metcalf 1st overall in a dynasty startup draft.  Yeah maybe he'll be the next Randy Moss and end up living up to that pick, but you're already buying him at his absolute ceiling.  Anything other than the absolute best case scenario imaginable ends up being an overpay.

And that's not even accounting for the notion that several of the competitors and potential competitors in the crowded market we're talking about own the devices that these solutions are being used on, so as we move forward they can either push people to those options or integrate them well enough that people prefer it.

Of course all of that is disregarding memes, momentum, and name recognition which play a massive role in this current market.  But fundamentally Zoom has the same market cap as companies doing $40+ billion annually in revenue and I just don't see that kind of realistic upside for Zoom or anything close to it.

[General Murmur of Agreemen 144]

18 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Pretty sure I've never reported anybody in my history here. Even though @General Malaise deserves it regularly for his views on lettuce.

And how.

[pmedina 84]

Patience in FSLY paying off today (in @ 79.33), what’s the reason for the sudden jump?

[BassNBrew 10,590]

WFC is under $24.  Seems to be the floor for this stock.

[FreeBaGeL 8,848]

12 minutes ago, stbugs said:

They had over $300M last quarter. Their revenue  was growing but it exploded due to WFH. I’m pretty sure they forecast $1B this year and $2B next year.

Even if they hit those numbers why would that necessarily mean those numbers are going to continue growing going forward?

WFH is not a growing industry.  It's an industry that already grew parabolically and is now going to pullback from here.  We can talk all we want about more and more companies moving to WFH in the future but over the last few months nearly ALL companies were doing WFH.  As the pandemic passes some companies are going to go back to the office and there are going to be fewer WFH companies than there are right now, and they're not going to be rushing for a quick easy to use solution that they can get up and running overnight anymore.

Even if they do $1B in revenue this year where is the growth from there?  Everyone being forced to work from home and needing to figure out a way to do it overnight with something very easy to get up and running was pretty much the absolute perfect scenario for Zoom.  If they can only bring in $1B revenue in that market how is that going to increase by multiples when 3/4ths of the companies go back to work and the rest have time to get the video conferencing software they're already paying for up and running?

Edited August 20, 2020 by FreeBaGeL

[General Murmur of Agreemen 144]

17 hours ago, KGB said:

Shorted Sirius this AM.

Figure car sales go down, SiRI goes down

I have a 90 day free trial of this.  I'm not sure I'm going to keep it, but I've had two phone calls from them already (and here, I'd like to offer that the people working for them are just slightly below Spirit Airlines employees for their customer service skills) where they offered me a chance to keep it for $2 a month.  That doesn't seem like a very lucrative business.....

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

9 minutes ago, pmedina said:

Patience in FSLY paying off today (in @ 79.33), what’s the reason for the sudden jump?

Haven't seen anything other than Trump backing Oracle's TikTok bid

[McBokonon 2,889]

This Zoom discussion is the same one I have internally about Slack ($WORK). People who use it LOVE it but the stock has been stagnant. Another one on my watchlist I can't bring myself to buy. Any Slack stock bulls here?

Edited August 20, 2020 by McBokonon

[General Murmur of Agreemen 144]

1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

NRGU is around $3.  This has been a great entry point over the last month.  If OIL prices ever pop this could be a huge winner.  If you don't want to wait, I think 10% profit within 2 weeks is very likely.

Dipping my toes in here.  I like the idea. 

 

[-OZ- 7,869]

45 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

So basically the reason I'm hearing the word Zoom so much is that the non-paying consumer is using it and the paying corporate customers are using other/better platforms?

Can't speak for private industry, but the Army has gone from "DO NOT USE ZOOM!!!" to using it for classes and training. Microsoft is still the platform for official meetings.

[pecorino 2,012]

8 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

This Zoom discussion is the same one I have internally about Slack ($WORK). People who use it LOVE it but the stock has been stagnant. Another one on my watchlist I can't bring myself to buy. Any Slack stock bulls here?

Not a bull, but I bought 100 shares after seeing the excitement that our IT guys had about it. It's done nothing in the intervening month but all I hear is that people like it. I may even buy 100 more on a dip. Buying completely on their word of mouth. I know nothing about it, really.

[McBokonon 2,889]

Just now, pecorino said:

Not a bull, but I bought 100 shares after seeing the excitement that our IT guys had about it. It's done nothing in the intervening month but all I hear is that people like it. I may even buy 100 more on a dip. Buying completely on their word of mouth. I know nothing about it, really.

Do you know if your IT guys upgraded to a paid version? 

[stbugs 2,992]

14 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Does tripling or quadrupling revenue matter when the revenue that we're talking about tripling was $330 million on a company with an $80 billion market cap currently trading at 1500x multiples?

Fundamentally buying Zoom right now to me is a lot like drafting DK Metcalf 1st overall in a dynasty startup draft.  Yeah maybe he'll be the next Randy Moss and end up living up to that pick, but you're already buying him at his absolute ceiling.  Anything other than the absolute best case scenario imaginable ends up being an overpay.

And that's not even accounting for the notion that several of the competitors and potential competitors in the crowded market we're talking about own the devices that these solutions are being used on, so as we move forward they can either push people to those options or integrate them well enough that people prefer it.

Of course all of that is disregarding memes, momentum, and name recognition which play a massive role in this current market.  But fundamentally Zoom has the same market cap as companies doing $40+ billion annually in revenue and I just don't see that kind of realistic upside for Zoom or anything close to it.

It does matter. First of all, who cares about companies with $40B in revenue that aren’t worth more. Profits matter more for those companies. Software is an extremely profitable business so revenue multiples are higher. Second, scoffing at a company tripling and quadrupling revenue makes no sense. That’s why they’ve jumped even in an environment where companies aren’t spending like crazy  

Hey, if you think they are overvalued that’s fine. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t. WFH isn’t going away and business travel will drop. There’s plenty of companies who’ve had competition and succeeded.

I don’t know the future but you are cherry picking numbers that aren’t reflective of the current state.

[FreeBaGeL 8,848]

1 minute ago, stbugs said:

It does matter. First of all, who cares about companies with $40B in revenue that aren’t worth more. Profits matter more for those companies. Software is an extremely profitable business so revenue multiples are higher. Second, scoffing at a company tripling and quadrupling revenue makes no sense. That’s why they’ve jumped even in an environment where companies aren’t spending like crazy  

Hey, if you think they are overvalued that’s fine. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t. WFH isn’t going away and business travel will drop. There’s plenty of companies who’ve had competition and succeeded.

I don’t know the future but you are cherry picking numbers that aren’t reflective of the current state.

Yeah good discussion, fair points you're making.  The sticking point for me is while it's true WFH isn't going away, it is undoubtedly going down from where it is right now, which is basically 100% penetration.

WFH will undoubtedly increase from where it was in January 2020.  But it will also undoubtedly substantially decrease from where it was in May/June of 2020.  We will likely never see that many people working from home again in our lifetime.

So if they could do $1B revenue when the entire country was forced to WFH, how are they going to grow from there when 75% of the people working from home right now go back to work?  And when all the companies with solutions that businesses are already paying for improve their product to the point where it doesn't make sense to pay for two of them?

This isn't like TSLA or something where we can say "imagine how many cars they are going to sell if 20 years from now people only buy electric vehicles".  We've already seen how many people would purchase zoom if every company in the country closed their workplace and worked from home and it still wasn't even a fraction of what the company is currently valued at.  How many people are going to be canceling subscriptions next year when things return to normal.  How many more are going to cancel subscriptions when they have more time to integrate the platforms they are already paying for?  How does that lead to growth from where they are right now, which is already revenue far below their valuation?  Where is the growth going to come from when WFH has already maxed out and is only going to revert back from where it is today?

[-OZ- 7,869]

5 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yeah good discussion, fair points you're making.  The sticking point for me is while it's true WFH isn't going away, it is undoubtedly going down from where it is right now, which is basically 100% penetration.

WFH will undoubtedly increase from where it was in January 2020.  But it will also undoubtedly substantially decrease from where it was in May/June of 2020.  We will likely never see that many people working from home again in our lifetime.

So if they could do $1B revenue when the entire country was forced to WFH, how are they going to grow from there when 75% of the people working from home right now go back to work?  And when all the companies with solutions that businesses are already paying for improve their product to the point where it doesn't make sense to pay for two of them?

This isn't like TSLA or something where we can say "imagine how many cars they are going to sell if 20 years from now people only buy electric vehicles".  We've already seen how many people would purchase zoom if every company in the country closed their workplace and worked from home and it still wasn't even a fraction of what the company is currently valued at.  How many people are going to be canceling subscriptions next year when things return to normal.  How many more are going to cancel subscriptions when they have more time to integrate the platforms they are already paying for?  How does that lead to growth from where they are right now, which is already revenue far below their valuation?  Where is the growth going to come from when WFH has already maxed out and is only going to revert back from where it is today?

I share many of the same concerns, but I do not think we're going back to the old normal. 

[stbugs 2,992]

3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yeah good discussion, fair points you're making.  The sticking point for me is while it's true WFH isn't going away, it is undoubtedly going down from where it is right now, which is basically 100% penetration.

WFH will undoubtedly increase from where it was in January 2020.  But it will also undoubtedly substantially decrease from where it was in May/June of 2020.  We will likely never see that many people working from home again in our lifetime.

So if they could do $1B revenue when the entire country was forced to WFH, how are they going to grow from there when 75% of the people working from home right now go back to work?  And when all the companies with solutions that businesses are already paying for improve their product to the point where it doesn't make sense to pay for two of them?

This isn't like TSLA or something where we can say "imagine how many cars they are going to sell if 20 years from now people only buy electric vehicles".  We've already seen how many people would purchase zoom if every company in the country closed their workplace and worked from home and it still wasn't even a fraction of what the company is currently valued at.  How many people are going to be canceling subscriptions next year when things return to normal.  How many more are going to cancel subscriptions when they have more time to integrate the platforms they are already paying for?  How does that lead to growth from where they are right now, which is already revenue far below their valuation?  Where is the growth going to come from when WFH has already maxed out and is only going to revert back from where it is today?

WFH being maxed out (I don’t think it is) doesn’t mean their revenue ceiling has been hit. Thinking that they can’t expand into other things either after building a huge base. It also doesn’t mean I won’t sell some once I hit long term taxes since it has run up so much so fast.

[BassNBrew 10,590]

FLGT up 16%, if it hits 17% I'm totally out.

RKT up 12%

[stbugs 2,992]

4 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

It seldom pays to try to time the market with long term money. Now, I can get on board with getting out of the riskier securities even if you have made a lot of money on them. But selling out of AMZN, APPL, JPM, other long term, great companies, seems silly. They may go down some but they'll go up over the long term. Why miss those up days?

Today is one of those days where it makes it hard to trim holdings. ZS, ZM, FLGT and FSLY are making it rain. 

[Nugget 1,664]

2 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

NRGU is around $3.  This has been a great entry point over the last month.  If OIL prices ever pop this could be a huge winner.  If you don't want to wait, I think 10% profit within 2 weeks is very likely.

Tailing.  My play acct is now NRGU/SOXL/TMF

[BassNBrew 10,590]

9 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

FLGT up 16%, if it hits 17% I'm totally out.

RKT up 12%

18%.  It was a good run.

[ChiefD 18,533]

Been following the Houston Firefighter story a little bit for RLF-100, and there is a Facebook page associated with him so people can post messages and also updates from the family. So here is a timeline of updates. This appears to be public information as it's out there in the open for all to see. 

Update: 8/18

The vent is currently set at 100%. Vitals are stable but his blood pressure is running a little high. There was no change in the x-rays from yesterday. The new meds are being administered very slowly over the next 36-48 hours. Good news, so far there are no visible side effects.

 

 

Update: 8/19 8:30am

Vent is currently at 60% and ECMO 100%. He was still on his stomach which means those numbers could change when they flip him over. Blood pressure is stable and per the nurse, oxygenation is “decent”.

 

 

Update 08/19/2020:

Ventilator has been set around 65% all day today. Blood pressure has been stable as well. The 2nd dose was started this afternoon and luckily no visible side effects. This medicine will take a while to show whether it’s proving to be beneficial. It could be Saturday before they know anything.

 

 

Update: 8/20 AM

Chest x-ray slightly better. They’ll take a repeat this afternoon and look more closely at it compared to yesterday. The vent is currently set at 60%. Blood pressure remains stable and with no meds needed. All other meds remain the same and Tommy seems to be still tolerating the new medication well.

 

Stock price aside, it looks like this is a possible solution, which would be awesome for serious Covid patients. Hope this works for this guy and for people that can medically benefit from it. 

[BassNBrew 10,590]

1 minute ago, stbugs said:

Today is one of those days where it makes it hard to trim holdings. ZS, ZM, FLGT and FSLY are making it rain. 

Great day for tech.

I just set up text alerts for FLGT at $50, $48, $46, $44, and $40.  I may never own this stock again.