What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Stock Thread (277 Viewers)

I'm not saying valuations aren't a little crazy but if you believe we're in the very beginning of a new industrial revolution like I do, don't sweat it so much. I'd buy DOCU at a billion X sales right now because in ten years that's the only way we're doing anything (just an example.) 

Buying tech growth with that thesis (if you believe that thesis) makes traditional ways at evaluating companies pretty much useless. I'm still not buying $SNOW but CRWD, U, SQ, absolutely. Give me more. That's the world in 10-20 years.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm not saying valuations aren't a little crazy but if you believe we're in the very beginning of a new industrial revolution like I do, don't sweat it so much. I'd buy DOCU at a billion X sales right now because in ten years that's the only way we're doing anything (just an example.) 

Buying tech growth with that thesis (if you believe that thesis) makes traditional ways at evaluating companies pretty much useless. I'm still not buying $SNOW but CRWD, U, SQ, absolutely. Give me more. That's the world in 10-20 years.
With you on most, but here’s an example from the earnings that just happened:

DOCU - $380M, 50%+ revenue growth, $43B market cap, 40 P/S

U - $200M, 50%+ revenue growth, $45B market cap, 70 P/S

Sure, 10 years from now both are solid, but in 10 years that extra 30 P/S could take a large bite. The only difference is when they went public. SQ has a higher growth rate right now than U and the P/S is 12. I have zero doubt that if ZM went public right now, their market cap would be much higher. Just because there’s much more froth in the recent IPOs. SNOW is just ludicrous. At $166, U isn’t a good buy. I’d much rather just have more SQ or DOCU. Heck their QoQ is the lowest of the 3. 9% to 12% for DOCU and a ridiculous 50% for SQ and their guidance for next quarter is 1% QoQ. I don’t want to alarm that U is slowing but I think I just convinced myself to add more SQ. I wish I bought more than I did at $150 and wish I just bought when I got the rec in June at $80. SMH.

 
With you on most, but here’s an example from the earnings that just happened:

DOCU - $380M, 50%+ revenue growth, $43B market cap, 40 P/S

U - $200M, 50%+ revenue growth, $45B market cap, 70 P/S

Sure, 10 years from now both are solid, but in 10 years that extra 30 P/S could take a large bite. The only difference is when they went public. SQ has a higher growth rate right now than U and the P/S is 12. I have zero doubt that if ZM went public right now, their market cap would be much higher. Just because there’s much more froth in the recent IPOs. SNOW is just ludicrous. At $166, U isn’t a good buy. I’d much rather just have more SQ or DOCU. Heck their QoQ is the lowest of the 3. 9% to 12% for DOCU and a ridiculous 50% for SQ and their guidance for next quarter is 1% QoQ. I don’t want to alarm that U is slowing but I think I just convinced myself to add more SQ. I wish I bought more than I did at $150 and wish I just bought when I got the rec in June at $80. SMH.
I don't wanna get into a $U vs. anybody thing because I was just tossing that out there as an example, but when I said using traditional ways to evaluate companies might not be so useful anymore, I mean things like P/S and P/E might tell you the now and the recent past, but it tells you nothing about the potential runway/future prospects. The latter can't be ignored, but it's critical to look at the overall story if you buy into the thesis.

I'd add more SQ myself but it's the in the account I think I'm gonna try to nab $AI in tomorrow and also has $SE which is now this gigantic whale in that account.

 
With you on most, but here’s an example from the earnings that just happened:

DOCU - $380M, 50%+ revenue growth, $43B market cap, 40 P/S

U - $200M, 50%+ revenue growth, $45B market cap, 70 P/S

Sure, 10 years from now both are solid, but in 10 years that extra 30 P/S could take a large bite. The only difference is when they went public. SQ has a higher growth rate right now than U and the P/S is 12. I have zero doubt that if ZM went public right now, their market cap would be much higher. Just because there’s much more froth in the recent IPOs. SNOW is just ludicrous. At $166, U isn’t a good buy. I’d much rather just have more SQ or DOCU. Heck their QoQ is the lowest of the 3. 9% to 12% for DOCU and a ridiculous 50% for SQ and their guidance for next quarter is 1% QoQ. I don’t want to alarm that U is slowing but I think I just convinced myself to add more SQ. I wish I bought more than I did at $150 and wish I just bought when I got the rec in June at $80. SMH.
AMZN 30x market cap and 300x revenue of DOCU and 500x of U.  Only a 36% growth rate. P/S of 5???  Now maybe it's not a fair comparison because DOCU and U don't have Bezos slowing them down, but dang these are priced to perfection already.

 
Late to the game ($20's in March, now $118), but the DOCU talk had me look into Dollop which I see more people using.  Well that is a Zillow product.  Zillow's market cap is $27B but their revenue is 3.5B.  Aren't they essentially a tech and software company?

 
I don't wanna get into a $U vs. anybody thing because I was just tossing that out there as an example, but when I said using traditional ways to evaluate companies might not be so useful anymore, I mean things like P/S and P/E might tell you the now and the recent past, but it tells you nothing about the potential runway/future prospects. The latter can't be ignored, but it's critical to look at the overall story if you buy into the thesis.

I'd add more SQ myself but it's the in the account I think I'm gonna try to nab $AI in tomorrow and also has $SE which is now this gigantic whale in that account.
No worries, U just stood out like a sore thumb and funny or not funny, it’s out of whack compared to the others which have better growth rates but much lower ratios. I know you can’t always use P/E, but I do think that companies with similar profit potential can be compared via revenue and revenue growth and it should show a decent “value” grade. Not perfect but a good start. Software/high margin should have a higher P/S because when they turn the earnings spigot on they can earn more, but all of these examples are in that high margin software sector.

 
Late to the game ($20's in March, now $118), but the DOCU talk had me look into Dollop which I see more people using.  Well that is a Zillow product.  Zillow's market cap is $27B but their revenue is 3.5B.  Aren't they essentially a tech and software company?
Not completely, I believe. With Zillow check how much of the revenue is house sales. Zillow does buy and sell homes and I think the price of the house is included in the revenue number. Don’t take my word for it, just have had Zillow in my watch list for a while and read a few articles. They are still very much tech/software but not quite the same as others only selling a software solution.

 
Late to the game ($20's in March, now $118), but the DOCU talk had me look into Dollop which I see more people using.  Well that is a Zillow product.  Zillow's market cap is $27B but their revenue is 3.5B.  Aren't they essentially a tech and software company?
they are getting into the real estate game and a potential disruptor.   That's the narrative that justifies their price.  

If you don't believe they are a disruptor, don't buy it.   Just Google "Zillow disruptor" and you'll see a slew of articles on it.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Not completely, I believe. With Zillow check how much of the revenue is house sales. Zillow does buy and sell homes and I think the price of the house is included in the revenue number. Don’t take my word for it, just have had Zillow in my watch list for a while and read a few articles. They are still very much tech/software but not quite the same as others only selling a software solution.
Thanks for pointing that out...https://www.mikedp.com/articles/2020/2/20/the-zillow-revenue-growth-fallacy

I guess DotLoop better be good to offset the home buying/selling losses.

 
they are getting into the real estate game and a potential disruptor.   That's the narrative that justifies their price.  

If you don't believe they are a disruptor, don't buy it.   Just Google "Zillow disruptor" and you'll see a slew of articles on it.  
Thanks....reading up on that now.

 
Thanks....reading up on that now.
I didn’t buy Zillow, but we both have Opendoor (I think you still have IPOB like me) and I bought into Redfin. Should have just bought both in March when they were both way cheaper. Probably have more shares of both than I do now of one.

 
I posted about IPOB a while ago in this thread...currently up close to 50%...I'm holding.  More room to run IMHO.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I didn’t buy Zillow, but we both have Opendoor (I think you still have IPOB like me) and I bought into Redfin. Should have just bought both in March when they were both way cheaper. Probably have more shares of both than I do now of one.
Looks like I won't be either (ZG).   As much as I like DotLoop, the rest of the business is not passing the sniff test for me.  Zillow used to advertise our rental listings for free (well they picked up the mls feed).  Now they just give one freebie per e-mail address.  They went to a pay model in spring with some insane pricing.  Everyone around here didn't sign up.    From what I can tell by inquires, they lost a lot of traffic to Realtor.com and Facebook marketplace due to this.  Last winter one of my owner's was trying to decide whether to sell their townhouse with one of my agents or Zillow or sell it directly to me.  Zillow actually made them a very good offer on the home of $187,000.  My offer would have been $180-$181.  It needed paint, floor refinishing, hot water heater, other plumbing work, and some other cosmetic work.  I saw their quote and remember their repair estimates being way below what I would pay to compete them.  I didn't feel comfortable that $187,000 would net me the profit margin I needed for the expenses to buy and then sell along with taking the risk the market might soften over the winter.  Of course I would have needed to get a mortgage or personal loan where they have the capital to buy outright.  We ended up listing it for them after convincing the owner we could market it for more than they expected.  They ended up netting around $207,000 after our commission and fees which was a $20k improvement for them although they did have $6K in repairs and ate 2 months of carrying costs for repairs and time to sell/close so it was only a $12k net improvement.  I remember thinking at the time that Zillow was entering a tough business segment and investing a lot of capital for marginal returns and not having much room for execution error.

I only ended up with 10 shares of IPOB and have moved half of that.  Got in later in the high $17s and was planning on DCA down which never happened or DCA up if it didn't pop and drifted up.  Ended up with 50 of IPOC unfortunately.  Currently carrying over 20 SPACS or their new symbol with varying share totals from 5 to 460, but most in the 10-50 range.  I bought $300 worth of Redfin but flipped it for a 10% profit.  I'm dealing with a much smaller account value than most here and have 20% tied up in large boat anchors.  It wouldn't be a BashnBezos post without mentioning that number was 25% a few weeks ago but the performance of everyone besides Bezos has increased my account total enough to reduce my Amazon allocation by 20%.

 
SE holders, anyone considering a rebalance?  What started out as a 1% allocation has grown to over 5% for me.  Every time it's dipped on no news when the market didn't, I added a couple of more shares.  I'm getting nervous about this stock now that we are in the $200's and EPS trending the wrong direction  That's balanced by FOMO on the next Amazon.  I'm giving some hard thought to selling half and moving it into Apple, SQ, and maybe Airbnb.

 
For those going in on the DoorDash IPO, I hope it is solely to day trade the pop. This article was funny and it was also before the reprice that added another 40-50% to the market cap:

DoorDash: The Most Ridiculous IPO Of 2020

DoorDash is now valued at more than AirBnB. Shocked that it seems hotter. Might be a flare to us that we’ve hit the peak of frothiness and we are about to get whacked and remember that not every stock goes up and doubles every other day. I don’t read tea leaves but this sure does seem like a signal that we are at a top.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
@BassNBrew didn’t want to quote that monster, but thanks for the info on ZG. I’ll leave it alone until I see more good stuff from it. I do like Redfin so keeping what I have there. Not a full share but it’s up a bit now and should be good long term. 

 
SE holders, anyone considering a rebalance?  What started out as a 1% allocation has grown to over 5% for me.  Every time it's dipped on no news when the market didn't, I added a couple of more shares.  I'm getting nervous about this stock now that we are in the $200's and EPS trending the wrong direction  That's balanced by FOMO on the next Amazon.  I'm giving some hard thought to selling half and moving it into Apple, SQ, and maybe Airbnb.
I consider it every day because it’s more than twice my second highest position, but I decide against it every day. I’m just going to let it run.

Sometimes I sell a few and buy them back on a pull back, but there’s a core amount I don’t touch. EPS is what it is because they’re rapidly expanding Shopee and their payment side - CEO said recently he can see Shopee being profitable soon, way ahead of schedule. Free Fire shows no sign of slowing down, which lets them invest in the other two arms without financing. Plus they have Ronaldo on their side:

https://youtu.be/2EMLSRA57JM

 
Last edited by a moderator:
SE holders, anyone considering a rebalance?  What started out as a 1% allocation has grown to over 5% for me.  Every time it's dipped on no news when the market didn't, I added a couple of more shares.  I'm getting nervous about this stock now that we are in the $200's and EPS trending the wrong direction  That's balanced by FOMO on the next Amazon.  I'm giving some hard thought to selling half and moving it into Apple, SQ, and maybe Airbnb.
With growth I’m at a touch over 3%. My threshold is usually 5%. A couple I need to trim are CHWY and GRWG

 
Who is buying up QS?  It's like McGuire and Sosa on roids all over again.  Has to be some big time players or institutions, right?  

 
Well I now own some KALA @ $7.82. NFC what I own, just trailing you guys lol. 
I bought too. Selling two dogs (LLNW and NWBO) that I didn't care about. Seems like this is more of an execution play than waiting for approvals game.

 
Well I now own some KALA @ $7.82. NFC what I own, just trailing you guys lol. 
I bought too. Selling two dogs (LLNW and NWBO) that I didn't care about. Seems like this is more of an execution play than waiting for approvals game.
right with you guys, but for chump change.  This will be a good sign for you.  I just can't go hard when something is up 4% at the open.

 
Well I now own some KALA @ $7.82. NFC what I own, just trailing you guys lol. 


I bought too. Selling two dogs (LLNW and NWBO) that I didn't care about. Seems like this is more of an execution play than waiting for approvals game.
Bought in a smallish position at $7.80. Good to hear you guys are getting in since you know about 1,000 times more than I do  :lol:

 
Sold 1/3 of my SE position and 1/5th of my PAYA holding.  That should be some AirBnB funds.  Also sold a little bit of CYDY at $3.60.

LOL - when I open my account today nearly everything was green, with a couple of red, and a Bezos brown.

 
Still hoping $AI gets swallowed up in this insane Door Dash hype today. IPO price is $42, curious how much higher it goes when it trades. Anything under $50 I'll be pretty ecstatic, but that seems unlikely in this day and age.

 
Bobcat10 said:
Anyone get into BFT?
Bought a small position at $12.72 yesterday with the intent of buying more when I got more funds in.  Missed my opportunity as it ended up mid 13's, but now flirting with going back to the 12's.  

I probably shouldn't care about the pennies but I'm always hesitant about averaging up.  I assume with more experience I'll be more confident in what I'm doing.

 
Trying to figure this IPO thing so put in a limit order for AI @ $50. Only 5 shares though in case I screw something up lol 

 
Trying to figure this IPO thing so put in a limit order for AI @ $50. Only 5 shares though in case I screw something up lol 
Feels wrong to set a buy limit at $50 with a bid/ask of $2.62/$2.78, doesn't it?  I have one set at $50 too.  

 
Still hoping $AI gets swallowed up in this insane Door Dash hype today. IPO price is $42, curious how much higher it goes when it trades. Anything under $50 I'll be pretty ecstatic, but that seems unlikely in this day and age.
What time does it open or is that a who knows?

 
There's another IPO today that's a little interesting - $PUBM - Pubmatic. I sold my $MGNI and might try and get in on this instead later. At first glance seems like the same thing as TTD but they're actually on the other side of the transaction and, if anything, they work with TTD. Not buying today, though. On the watchlist.

 
MMEDF, right? Was 33 cents in October, $2.86 now.
Yeah, I sold to lock in profits at .75ish, but dove back in on the next dip. I've been in and out numerous times and as a rarity, almost always made the right in and out moves. Definitely all house money at this point, but huge bank

 
Last edited by a moderator:
That's it, I'm selling.
But really though, I only got into SE recently and like its prospects at this time. Always a fan of the idea of trimming when things get too large. Online shopping in some of the fastest growing economies in the world is a bet worth taking. Bezos can't get them all.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top