Dynasty & Redraft: WR Amari Cooper, Cowboys

[King of the Jungle 1,390]

Cooper already pulling out of practice with tight hammies. Hope he can stay healthy this season.

[Stompin' Tom Connors 4,244]

2 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Cooper already pulling out of practice with tight hammies. Hope he can stay healthy this season.

Not a great sign, to be sure, but let's also not get too carried away -- it's literally the first day of OTAs. Preseason is a far way aways still. Let's see how this pans out as either a minor ding, or something that lingers. 

[Faust 5,252]

Amari Cooper embraces featured role in passing game

[Faust 5,252]

Amari Cooper - WR -  Raiders

Raiders coach Jon Gruden says Amari Cooper bulked up to 225 pounds this offseason.

Cooper was just 211 pounds at the 2015 Combine, so this is a significant change. While there has to be some concern that much weight gain will affect his speed and quickness, Gruden is excited about using Cooper, who he compared to Sterling Sharpe. "We're going to move him all over the place," Gruden said. "He is smart, he's elusive, he can run after the catch. We've got to get more ways to get him the football." Coming off easily his worst season as a pro, Cooper has some bounce-back appeal.

Source: NFL Network 

Jul 31 - 10:00 AM

 

[Andy Dufresne 12,012]

David Boston 2.0

[Chaka 6,241]

3 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

David Boston 2.0

So we should expect 1,600 yards this year?

That would be cool.

[Andy Dufresne 12,012]

1 minute ago, Chaka said:

So we should expect 1,600 yards this year?

That would be cool.

Sure, you can expect it all you want. 

[Ilov80s 29,925]

Are they converting him to RB? 

[Chaka 6,241]

18 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Sure, you can expect it all you want. 

I did the math, it works.

[King of the Jungle 1,390]

Hungry for success this one is. Hoping Gruden can put him in the best position to succeed (e.g. more time in the slot, take advantage of his run after catch ability...etc). 

[Ilov80s 29,925]

Just now, Chaka said:

I did the math, it works.

I think it does. 1100 or so rushing, another 500 from dump offs, screens, wheel routes and stab routes. 

[Interseptopus 5,722]

I sold and I have a suspicion I'm going to regret it, but I am obsessed with picks I guess. 

 

I have a feeling Jordy emerges as the true WR1 on this team. Bryant concerns me as well as he's got the size and speed to be a true WR1. I didn't want to believe it when someone else suggested it, but the more I considered it the more I felt like it was plausible. 

I don't believe much that comes out of Gruden's mouth. The guy thinks everyone is a super star. Cooper's biggest problems are 1- staying healthy, and 2- improving the drops. If he can do both of that he is likely going to rebound to being in the WR1 conversation. Top 8 I doubt, but it's definitely possible. 

[Brisco54 252]

52 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

David Boston 2.0

Comparing Apples and Aardvarks.

David Boston was drafted at 225... the weight Cooper has now attained.  When Boston was 225 he was effective.  

We now know that Boston's subsequent buffing up was the product of steroids/GHB.  Coaches in SD eventually admitted they traded him to Miami because of his poor practice habits and moody personality.

Boston got buff super fast because of steroids... he was a guy that took short cuts and it ended up costing him  with the spate of injuries and suspensions that ended up costing him his career.

Cooper has gained 14 pounds since 2015... that is a reasonable pace for weight gain while maintaining flexibility.  There is no evidence of steroid use.  There are no complaints about his work ethic or practice habits.  His primary flaw appears to be self-confidence... something Boston had in spades.

These two are not similar at all.

 

[Chaka 6,241]

4 minutes ago, Brisco54 said:

When Boston was 225 he was effective.

 

BAM!  1,600 yards!

That's math!

[Andy Dufresne 12,012]

9 minutes ago, Brisco54 said:

Comparing Apples and Aardvarks.

David Boston was drafted at 225... the weight Cooper has now attained.  When Boston was 225 he was effective.  

We now know that Boston's subsequent buffing up was the product of steroids/GHB.  Coaches in SD eventually admitted they traded him to Miami because of his poor practice habits and moody personality.

Boston got buff super fast because of steroids... he was a guy that took short cuts and it ended up costing him  with the spate of injuries and suspensions that ended up costing him his career.

Cooper has gained 14 pounds since 2015... that is a reasonable pace for weight gain while maintaining flexibility.  There is no evidence of steroid use.  There are no complaints about his work ethic or practice habits.  His primary flaw appears to be self-confidence... something Boston had in spades.

These two are not similar at all.

 

It was a generality. Regardless of the cause, I think Cooper is a literal and figurative stiff. 

[Brisco54 252]

19 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

It was a generality. Regardless of the cause, I think Cooper is a literal and figurative stiff. 

You could be right about his future prospects, but is the conclusion that he is literally "stiff" based on a presumption of the effect of the weight gain, or something you have observed on video?

I have not previously read any complaints about his flexibility.

On the buy/sell decision in dynasty... in hindsight, last August was a great time to sell.  I do not think now is a good time, however, unless you are receiving an overpay.

I am concerned about his confidence as well as all the changes in the raiders offense (Jordy/Martavis...) as much as the next guy... but right now he is barely holding on to top 20 WR status in value while he has top 5 overall market upside.  If he starts the year with two or three strong weeks, his value will skyrocket back to at least top 8 overall.  If you do not believe in him, that is the time to sell and you will get a top 3 1st round pick overall.  

If you sell now you are getting WR18 value which is what...  an early second round /late 1st round pick?  Any rookie available after 8 picks are off the board has even less certainty than Cooper and does not have the ability to skyrocket to top 1st value after just a couple of good weeks.  

 

[Andy Dufresne 12,012]

7 minutes ago, Brisco54 said:

You could be right about his future prospects, but is the conclusion that he is literally "stiff" based on a presumption of the effect of the weight gain, or something you have observed on video?

I have not previously read any complaints about his flexibility.

On the buy/sell decision in dynasty... in hindsight, last August was a great time to sell.  I do not think now is a good time, however, unless you are receiving an overpay.

I am concerned about his confidence as well as all the changes in the raiders offense (Jordy/Martavis...) as much as the next guy... but right now he is barely holding on to top 20 WR status in value while he has top 5 overall market upside.  If he starts the year with two or three strong weeks, his value will skyrocket back to at least top 8 overall.  If you do not believe in him, that is the time to sell and you will get a top 3 1st round pick overall.  

If you sell now you are getting WR18 value which is what...  an early second round /late 1st round pick?  Any rookie available after 8 picks are off the board has even less certainty than Cooper and does not have the ability to skyrocket to top 1st value after just a couple of good weeks.  

 

I guess he's never passed the eye test for me and I'm extrapolating that the weight gain will only make things worse. 

If I had him I'd keep him unless I received a great offer. I wouldn't be looking to acquire him. 

[King of the Jungle 1,390]

Anyone feel like he can have a career year this season? Gruden seems to want to feature him and he seems healthy again. I feel like he offers a bit of upside at his ADP.

[SameSongNDance 7,014]

8 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Anyone feel like he can have a career year this season? Gruden seems to want to feature him and he seems healthy again. I feel like he offers a bit of upside at his ADP.

But also downside that we've all witnessed that literally puts him into the realm of "undraftable". I'm pretty sure he was something like the overall WR90 before the KC game last year. I'm not totally averse to drafting him because he can see 150 targets, only catch half of them and still stumble into a 70/1000 line but hoo boy is his floor bottomless. 

[modogg 4,754]

On 8/17/2018 at 2:53 PM, King of the Jungle said:

Anyone feel like he can have a career year this season? Gruden seems to want to feature him and he seems healthy again. I feel like he offers a bit of upside at his ADP.

i was thinking the same thing when i drafted him. Have to say, this Monday night game isn't pumping me with confidence

[TheDirtyWord 970]

3 minutes ago, modogg said:

i was thinking the same thing when i drafted him. Have to say, this Monday night game isn't pumping me with confidence

Patience.  OAK clearly looking for ball control tonite

[az_prof 510]

This is frustrating. I'm starting to think he just isn't that good.

[Weebs210 2,418]

Change thread title to Amari Pooper please. We got tricked again.

[oswizzle 230]

Jared Cook is stealing the Cooper targets

 

[doeseatplace 351]

Nearly every source I saw this week urged caution in starting Cooper against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Total targets:

WRs--8

TEs--13

RB--15

Clearly a game scheme to avoid Peters and Talib, or else Chucky and Carr would have taken at least a couple of shots

Edited September 11, 2018 by doeseatplace

[dipandglide 372]

Brutal. At this point, what is the difference between him and Sammy? 

[FreshiZ 234]

2 minutes ago, dipandglide said:

Brutal. At this point, what is the difference between him and Sammy? 

Sammy has a better QB and play calling

[King of the Jungle 1,390]

Anybody watch the game? Did he look slow and unable to get open or was he just not a big part of the plan? I just do not understand his usage even going back to last year.

[Sarlakticacid 625]

12 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Anybody watch the game? Did he look slow and unable to get open or was he just not a big part of the plan? I just do not understand his usage even going back to last year.

Carr is to scared to challenge decent CBs 

 

on the lob pick pick he threw, I think it was Cooper came open in the zone but he rarely challenges those throws 

 

also WRs not part of the plan 

[lod001 5,406]

Derek Carr us becoming David Carr.

[zoonation 5,135]

Fool me four times...

oh. Wait.  

[bostonfred 30,546]

45 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Anybody watch the game? Did he look slow and unable to get open or was he just not a big part of the plan? I just do not understand his usage even going back to last year.

He had a 16 yard catch called back by penalty early in was getting doubled for most of the first quarter. But he's supposed to win tough match ups sometimes too. They just kept dumping to the tight end and running back. And it wasn't like carr was going through all his progressions then checking down to the back. He was quick releasing it to the back again and again.  

Edited September 11, 2018 by bostonfred

[Gottabesweet 960]

Yikes that was rough.  Doesn't get easier with the Broncos this week.  He doesn't play the Chiefs until 12/2  

Schedule looks rough until Seahawks and Colts mid October.

 

[iamkoza 510]

this is a tough one... his trade value in redraft just plummeted to at best 50% preseason value but is it time to bail at that value versus if he has another stinker next week he'll be an anchor on your bench

Edited September 11, 2018 by iamkoza

[Ilov80s 29,925]

1 minute ago, iamkoza said:

this is a tough one... his trade value in redraft just plummeted to at best 50% preseason value but is it time to bail at that value versus if he has another stinker next week he'll be an anchor on your bench

Seriously, if we redraft right now, he's going maybe 10th round? Just a what the heck flyer. 

[Alex P Keaton 4,045]

6 hours ago, dipandglide said:

Brutal. At this point, what is the difference between him and Sammy? 

Sammy is able to get open sometimes

[Simon Shepherd 248]

If you drafted Amari Cooper and you were not expecting to take a donut a few times in the year, 100% you only have yourself to blame.

But saying the guy has 10th round value now when last night absolutely fits into his points distribution from last year, is a little out there to me. It wasn't a Cooper-game. You get 2-3 those a year and they'll be 30 points each. They will happen this year too.

[Gottabesweet 960]

2 minutes ago, Simon Shepherd said:

If you drafted Amari Cooper and you were not expecting to take a donut a few times in the year, 100% you only have yourself to blame.

But saying the guy has 10th round value now when last night absolutely fits into his points distribution from last year, is a little out there to me. It wasn't a Cooper-game. You get 2-3 those a year and they'll be 30 points each. They will happen this year too.

Draft Dominator seemed to love him in various leagues around the 3.8 to 4.4 slot.  Here's hoping for a rebound.  I have a few shares, but also diversified with others in that range.  .

[Skoo 7,482]

35 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Seriously, if we redraft right now, he's going maybe 10th round? Just a what the heck flyer. 

#week1overreaction

[Moonshine 427]

26 minutes ago, Simon Shepherd said:

If you drafted Amari Cooper and you were not expecting to take a donut a few times in the year, 100% you only have yourself to blame.

But saying the guy has 10th round value now when last night absolutely fits into his points distribution from last year, is a little out there to me. It wasn't a Cooper-game. You get 2-3 those a year and they'll be 30 points each. They will happen this year too.

Do you even get 2 or 3 a year though? He had the one blow-up game last year that everyone remembers, but was startable in maybe 2 other games. In 2017, he had 1 30+ point game, 2 games in the 12-15 point range (Week 1 and Week 16), and the remainder he averaged below 5 points a game. Week 2-6 he averaged 17 yards a game, with 0 touchdowns. Weeks 8-12, he averaged 36 yards a game, with 0 touchdowns. That's droppable, JAG material for me, and a massive disappointment at his ADP.

2016 was better, admittedly, but he only topped 60 yards once in the second half of the season with 3 touchdowns over that span (one of those occurring in Week 17, where it likely didn't help anyone for fantasy purposes).

It'd be a little easier waiting for the big games if he was startable in the meantime, but in the last two dozen games or so that he started he's been below replacement value (i.e., not startable and likely contributing to a loss for your team) in at least 15 of them (2018: Week 1; 2017: Weeks 2-6, 11-12, 14; 2016: Weeks 4, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15). A 10th round value feels like it fits the narrative for me.

Edited September 11, 2018 by Moonshine

[Simon Shepherd 248]

4 minutes ago, Moonshine said:

Do you even get 2 or 3 a year though? He had the one blow-up game last year that everyone remembers, but was startable in maybe 2 other games. In 2017, he had 1 30+ point game, 2 games in the 12-15 point range (Week 1 and Week 16), and the remainder he averaged below 5 points a game. Week 2-6 he averaged 17 yards a game, with 0 touchdowns. Weeks 8-12, he averaged 36 yards a game, with 0 touchdowns. That's droppable, JAG material for me, and a massive disappointment at his ADP.

2016 was better, admittedly, but he only topped 60 yards once in the second half of the season with 3 touchdowns over that span (one of those occurring in Week 17, where it likely didn't help anyone for fantasy purposes).

It'd be a little easier waiting for the big games if he was startable in the meantime, but in the last two dozen games or so that he started he's been below replacement value (i.e., not startable and likely contributing to a loss for your team) in at least 15 of them (2018: Week 1; 2017: Weeks 2-6, 11-12, 14; 2016: Weeks 4, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15). A 10th round value feels like it fits the narrative for me.

Well he was WR 31 overall last year in total points, but missed two games. 24th WR in per game numbers, amongst WRs to play at least 10 games. So he was a low-end WR2/high end WR3. Most leagues play 3 WRs so that's someone who needed to be started in most leagues, most weeks (when he was playing).

Then he is still at a point in his career when he should be on an ascension; he's 24 years old in his 4th year.

Meanwhile Gruden says "we gotta do a better job as a coaching staff getting him the football, and that'll be the goal this week".

I think the key here though is Carr. He had a bad night and mostly threw to his backs and Cook. He needs to give his receivers a chance to make plays and then it's on Cooper to make the play and earn his trust.

It wasn't just Cooper it was all the receivers who suffered. This team is obviously not going to average 4 completions a game to Cooper and Nelson combined.

[Chaka 6,241]

2 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Anybody watch the game? Did he look slow and unable to get open or was he just not a big part of the plan? I just do not understand his usage even going back to last year.

At one point he simply quit.  Late third or early fourth Oakland ran a pitch wide to the left for Richard, Amari motioned tight to the tackle on the left side and was supposed to block (or at least run interference) a linebacker, any linebacker. Didn't happen, he didn't even try every LB met Richard at the LoS for no gain.  It was really a pathetic effort and won't go over well in the film room.  If that doesn't change don't expect Cooper to be in Oakland next season.  I am sure there is a 35 year old WR that Gruden will prefer.

[TheDirtyWord 970]

I think there is a bit of overreaction going on here. 

Cooper's issues last year really started with a startling series of drops.  While his lack of targets were a concern, I think what OAK wanted to do was keep LAR's offense off the field as much as possible.  For a half, that worked.  But once, LAR took control of the game...because of the lack of establishing any passing game rhythm outside of Cook, OAK was...cooked <ugh>. 

While Carr's refusal to test Talib/Peters was concerning...out of 40 attempts, only 9 targets to Cooper/Nelson/Roberts...this won't continue. 

I do agree that Cooper has more to prove than he doesn't after the last stinker of a year and a half.  But last night felt more like a plan that petered out after a half.

[Moonshine 427]

24 minutes ago, Simon Shepherd said:

Well he was WR 31 overall last year in total points, but missed two games. 24th WR in per game numbers, amongst WRs to play at least 10 games. So he was a low-end WR2/high end WR3. Most leagues play 3 WRs so that's someone who needed to be started in most leagues, most weeks (when he was playing).

Then he is still at a point in his career when he should be on an ascension; he's 24 years old in his 4th year.

Meanwhile Gruden says "we gotta do a better job as a coaching staff getting him the football, and that'll be the goal this week".

I think the key here though is Carr. He had a bad night and mostly threw to his backs and Cook. He needs to give his receivers a chance to make plays and then it's on Cooper to make the play and earn his trust.

It wasn't just Cooper it was all the receivers who suffered. This team is obviously not going to average 4 completions a game to Cooper and Nelson combined.

I definitely agree with your latter points. He's young and should still be improving, and is a part of an offense that I think is better than they showed last night. I don't expect 1 reception for 9 yards to be the norm, certainly, but it's troubling considering his history the past few years.

I think his year end WR ranking is misleading when considering if he was a start worthy player, especially in 2017 where he accrued nearly a third of his yardage and touchdowns in a single game. His weekly finishes for 2017 were:

1. 4 WR1 finishes (#10 overall Week 1, #1 Week 7, #6 Week 16, and #5 Week 17). Week 7 and 17 would have resulted in more than 15 points, standard.
2. 1 WR2 finish (#23 overall Week 11, but he only accrued 3 catches for 28 yards this week. A touchdown saved him)
3. 3 WR3 finishes (#36 Week 8, #38 Week 9, #36 Week 12. Week 12 he only had 1 catch for 9 yards; again a touchdown saved him that week).
4. 7 finishes outside the Top 50
5. 2 games not played due to injury

Nearly half the games in 2017 he wouldn't have even qualified as a WR4, and for a few of the WR2 and WR3 finishes he was no better than a TD dependent tight end. He might have averaged out to WR #31, but he wasn't startable in half of games last year and likely lost you more than a game or two because of his ADP. I was surprised to see he had four WR1 finishes though, which is better than I expected. The potential is certainly there, but I have as much faith in Sammy Watkins this year as I do in Amari Cooper.

stat source: http://fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2017&GameWeek=1&PosID=30&LeagueID=

[bostonfred 30,546]

7 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

While Carr's refusal to test Talib/Peters was concerning...out of 40 attempts, only 9 targets to Cooper/Nelson/Roberts...this won't continue. 

Yup.

[DocHolliday 4,044]

Like many of you, I was hesitant to draft Cooper but couldn't pass up the potential value.  But, I also loaded up on WRs in the next couple of rounds as well since Cooper has not looked good in a year

Im probably going to start Cooper in week 2 but Cooper, Carr, and Gruden are not giving me much confidence.  I didn't see the O that I was expecting.  I thought we would see something similar to Gannon, Brown and Rice.  Quick outs, ins and slants to move the chains and eventually someone breaking a tackle and getting some yards.  Bringing Nelson in really felt like that was Gruden's plan.    

[SameSongNDance 7,014]

7 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

Like many of you, I was hesitant to draft Cooper but couldn't pass up the potential value. But, I also loaded up on WRs in the next couple of rounds as well since Cooper has not looked good in a year

Im probably going to start Cooper in week 2 but Cooper, Carr, and Gruden are not giving me much confidence. I didn't see the O that I was expecting. I thought we would see something similar to Gannon, Brown and Rice. Quick outs, ins and slants to move the chains and eventually someone breaking a tackle and getting some yards. Bringing Nelson in really felt like that was Gruden's plan.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Carr targeted a RB or TE on 75% of his passes last night. I'm assuming Cooper and Jordy had trouble with Talib and Peters. I wouldn't be surprised if teams end up checking down to TEs and RBs more than usual against LAR this year.

That being said, I'd still be worried about Cooper. To me, he looked checked out of the game last night. 

[King of the Jungle 1,390]

1 minute ago, SameSongNDance said:

I don't think it's a coincidence that Carr targeted a RB or TE on 75% of his passes last night. I'm assuming Cooper and Jordy had trouble with Talib and Peters. I wouldn't be surprised if teams end up checking down to TEs and RBs more than usual against LAR this year.

That being said, I'd still be worried about Cooper. To me, he looked checked out of the game last night. 

Concerning if he is checking out of the first game of the season. Judging by the game logs last year he may have been doing the same. Maybe he is just not that good or has no desire to be great. Either way I doubt Gruden puts up with it for very long. 

[Ilov80s 29,925]

2 hours ago, Simon Shepherd said:

If you drafted Amari Cooper and you were not expecting to take a donut a few times in the year, 100% you only have yourself to blame.

But saying the guy has 10th round value now when last night absolutely fits into his points distribution from last year, is a little out there to me. It wasn't a Cooper-game. You get 2-3 those a year and they'll be 30 points each. They will happen this year too.

Him fitting into last year's point distribution from last year is the absolute problem. In standard last year, 64% of the time he finished lower than a WR3, 57% of the time lower than a WR4. He only had 1 game over 100 yards and had 5 games with less than 50. 

[Ilov80s 29,925]

2 hours ago, Skoo said:

#week1overreaction

Certainly possible, but he's picking up right where he left off last year. 

Also, yes a bit of an overreaction. I am sure he will have a 30 point game somewhere this year, I just don't want to deal with all the 3 point games leading up to it.

Edited September 11, 2018 by Ilov80s