I've now seen all his runs from the game & nothing has changed about my evaluation. Nothing was likely to change with a few caries or even all of preseason. The regular season is the test. It's easy to get fooled in preseason. It doesn't mean certain prospects can't vault up your rankings in preseason, especially prospects who come out of nowhere (like Victor Cruz), but with a guy like Abdullah, my evaluation will likely stay pretty static during the preseason.
Can he have longterm success with his upright lateral move? Another concern I have is he's pretty much a one-trick pony with his quickness. He seems to have good vision, but he's not a big tackle breaker & not a home run hitter (despite the long run). I've liked smaller RBs coming out of college. They have a little bit of a disadvantage, but those guys can still be studs. I was high on both Charles & CJ coming out, but they have some attributes Abdullah doesn't possess.
I didn't take Abdullah off my board in dynasty drafts. I often do that with guys I'm sure will bust no matter how far they fall. I'd take Abdullah with the right pick, but I knew I'd likely never get him once his ADP was established. My overall general strategy is to try to hit on feature backs, #1 WRs, etc. I've been very successful doing that, but you typically pass up safer players with that strategy. I think Abdullah is a pretty safe bet to be a productive FF RB in PPR leagues as long as his situation holds up, but we're talking about another level entirely when people start calling him a stud.
It doesn't mean Abdullah can't be a stud, it just means there are too many unanswered questions for me to take him around his ADP (mostly talking dynasty here). Just the simple fact he may very well not be a GL back for much of his career is enough to have pause to not call him a potential stud. Some smaller guys can excel around the GL, but that's a huge projection for Abdullah right now. He can make up some of the potential point loss in PPR leagues if he's used enough in the passing game, but it would help if he had home run ability if he's not going to be a GL back. I simply have a lot of reservations about the stud call at this time.
Great post. I'm a big AA fan but I think projecting him as a stud is betting on his absolute ceiling and possibly a ceiling that isn't even that high.
My main concern with him is the lack of speed. It will result in subpar TD's his entire career. He would have to be an exceptional GL runner at his size to get the opportunities inside the 5 and simply being the best GL back at Nebraska the last 3yrs isn't enough. If you're telling me he's the best GL back at Alabama for 3yrs, then that's telling me something.
Chances are better than 50% that he will not be a goal line back.
Chances are better than 50% that he will not break off a higher than avg number of long TD runs.
Those are two huge knocks against him right off the bat.
Even if Detroit decides not to use their 230 pound back at the goal line, AA would still be competing with Calvin Johnson who is one of the best red zone threats in the game. If Ebron continues to develop, there's another weapon near the goal line. Bell has never had more than 8 rushing TD's in a season as the primary goal line back for detroit the past 2 seasons.
I'm just not seeing the potential for him to be a stud. I do, however, think he has a very high floor which is why I'll be drafting him in dynasty for sure and redraft if he falls.