Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
"Why shouldn't we just bet all our money teasing [Public Team A] and [Public Team B]?"
Because the NFL is clearly that easy to beat.
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The Bill Simmons Podcast (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Daywalker
- Start date
Because the NFL is clearly that easy to beat.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
I've long suspected that offshore books have sponsored his podcast for years. They pay Simmons to give out bad advice, books make it all back and more when listeners follow his advice at offshore books. He's too dynamically bad at multiple sports to continue on at this rate for this long.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
But he's wealthy, and outside of NFL it doesn't seem like he does much day-to-day betting. NFL and maybe a few futures in MLB/NBA/NHL? That won't kill you if you're a millionaire. I'd guess he ends up down a light four-figures every year.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I don't care how bad his picks are, his gambling podcasts are entertaining as hell.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
His picks aren't really bad. He got killed last week, but crushed the week before. I think he was 5-0 on his picks on the House podcast and I'm pretty sure he said he's close to 60% YTD
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
5 games a week for 7-8 weeks is a pretty miniscule sample. I am not smart enough to beat NFL sides long-term, but I'm the next-best thing, which is smart enough to know that I definitely can NOT beat NFL sides. Em had a recent streak where he went 13-4! Eminence!
I think the two biggest errors they make are 1) relying on small-sample trends ("Team X is 6-0 ATS on the road this year") and 2) using rationale that's already being taken into account when the line is set (e.g. "[starting QB] is out, don't like the backup. Taking the other side.") The bookmakers KNOW this.
Two good gambling podcasts where you can actually learn something/get some valuable information are Millman's podcast for ESPN, and Gill Alexander's podcast "Beating The Book." (a recent ep featured (ex?) FFA poster Johnny Detroit) Go with those instead.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I don't disagree with anything you said. I don't think that Simmons himself would say he (or House or Sal) is going to beat the vig long term. I'm just saying that he hasn't been awful this season as a whole. I think both his "5 games" each week and Sal's best bets on ESPN have been +EV so far this year.
It also could be that I've been listening to so much VIP Sports podcast lately that these guys sound like Neil Degrasse Tyson by comparison.
Brony
Footballguy
I actually enjoy the fact that many of the picks are built on superstition and intuition. Scientifically a really dumb way to bet, but extremely relatable and entertaining.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
He also called the Philbin firing the week before it happened and the Kaepernick benching the week before it happened. The Philbin dismissal was no shock, but I have to admit, I didn't think the 49ers were going to bench Kaepernick for Blaine Gabbert. He was right, I was wrong.
Rick James
Footballguy
I believe Sal has been killing it the last 2 years.
belljr
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I know it's a minor difference but Sal is there to predict the line and then discuss - they sometimes pick a game or who they like but they don't pick each game or analyze it the same way they analyze the making of the line. Again - to some it may be a distinction without a difference but I'm entertained enough to listen to both. Sal > House though.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Also, Money Talks.Good Posting Judge said:
Seriously though, I listen to Millman and Beating the Book and they are awesome.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
They work with the guys that make the lines.
(I still don't know what that's supposed to mean. Are the books telling him what they want people to bet, and is he then reversing that and pouring his clients' money on the other side? And if the books can tell he's doing that and are still giving him sides, does that mean the books are now telling Stevens the opposite of where they want the money to be?)
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
They also talk about how badly they beat up the sportsbooks, so it is pretty confusing. Especially since the books tend to limit big/winning players.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Simmons' first HBO project is apparently a 30 for 30 style documentary on Andre the Giant.
It will be interesting if they manage to get beyond the stock apocryphal stuff that I've seen everywhere. "He got rides to school with Samuel Beckett!" "He drank six litres of red win to get a buzz!"
It will be interesting if they manage to get beyond the stock apocryphal stuff that I've seen everywhere. "He got rides to school with Samuel Beckett!" "He drank six litres of red win to get a buzz!"
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
None of it makes any sense, but their BS is infectious. Last night, I shifted into Stevens mode from out of nowhere in my everyday life.
Wife : "Are you making dinner tonight? Don't we have strip steaks to gri-"
EG : "It's going to be an ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT DINNER !"
Wife : "What the hell is that? What are you doing?"
EG : "I'm not just making a steak, I'm dealing with butchers, ranchers, CEOs. I'm working with the guy who fed the steer. There comes a time in your life when you deserve something good on your dinner plate, and that time for you is now ! Just let me do what I do. You'll even get some creamed spinach on the side. ANYTHING ELSE I CAN DO FOR YA ?!"
Wife : "What IS this? I'm so confused. What are you doi-"
EG : "Give me 1% of your trust and I swear to you as your husband I will earn the other 99%. I wouldn't go to your job and tell you how to run the HR department, don't tell me what cut of steak you want or how you want it cooked, just sit back and shut up and let me make you a steak. FAIR ENOUGH ??!!"
Wife : "Whatever this is, stop it right now."
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Does HBO get a piece of his podcast? I assume not.
On The Rocks
Evil Conservative
Podcast Ep 19: Malcolm Gladwell
This episode is why I listen to and enjoy Bill Simmons.
I disagree with his politics but this was an intelligent and fun conversation. The kind of spirited chat you want to have with a good pal over a beer.
https://soundcloud.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/ep-19-malcolm-gladwell-1
This episode is why I listen to and enjoy Bill Simmons.
I disagree with his politics but this was an intelligent and fun conversation. The kind of spirited chat you want to have with a good pal over a beer.
https://soundcloud.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/ep-19-malcolm-gladwell-1
Sammy3469
Footballguy
So it looks like Ryan and Greenwald will have a twice weekly TV pod. Greenwald's writing a book, so it doesn't look like he'll be writing a column for anyone for the time being.
The Gladwell pod got into some of the inside baseball Grantland stuff again. Nothing really new, but Gladwell's perspective on the whole thing is interesting.
The Gladwell pod got into some of the inside baseball Grantland stuff again. Nothing really new, but Gladwell's perspective on the whole thing is interesting.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
LmaoNone of it makes any sense, but their BS is infectious. Last night, I shifted into Stevens mode from out of nowhere in my everyday life.
Wife : "Are you making dinner tonight? Don't we have strip steaks to gri-"
EG : "It's going to be an ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT DINNER !"
Wife : "What the hell is that? What are you doing?"
EG : "I'm not just making a steak, I'm dealing with butchers, ranchers, CEOs. I'm working with the guy who fed the steer. There comes a time in your life when you deserve something good on your dinner plate, and that time for you is now ! Just let me do what I do. You'll even get some creamed spinach on the side. ANYTHING ELSE I CAN DO FOR YA ?!"
Wife : "What IS this? I'm so confused. What are you doi-"
EG : "Give me 1% of your trust and I swear to you as your husband I will earn the other 99%. I wouldn't go to your job and tell you how to run the HR department, don't tell me what cut of steak you want or how you want it cooked, just sit back and shut up and let me make you a steak. FAIR ENOUGH ??!!"
Wife : "Whatever this is, stop it right now."
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
IMO, Grantland improved immensely when it started relying more on its homegrown talent and less on Klosterman, and to a lesser extent, Gladwell.
Of course, I can't stand Gladwell, who's the master of turning a few anecdotes into a "think piece."
Of course, I can't stand Gladwell, who's the master of turning a few anecdotes into a "think piece."
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I don't mind Gladwell, but I agree with that take.
Do you dislike Klosterman? I usually find his thoughts pretty interesting on the podcasts. I haven't really read him much.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Not a big fan of Klosterman the essayist. I did like Killing Yourself to Live, which I think is his best book by a pretty hefty margin.
HellToupee
Footballguy
Sammy3469
Footballguy
belljr
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Bill just retweeted me to his nearly 5M followers. Pretty much the highlight of my life.
He's a huge Francesa fan, so it was just a matter of time.
He's a huge Francesa fan, so it was just a matter of time.
John Bender
Footballguy
Even more impressive. Bill almost NEVER retweets anyone.
Freaking awesome RN.
Freaking awesome RN.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
lumpy19
Footballguy
Ugh I can't believe you showed up in my timelineBill just retweeted me to his nearly 5M followers. Pretty much the highlight of my life.
He's a huge Francesa fan, so it was just a matter of time.
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
How much traffic did it drive?Bill just retweeted me to his nearly 5M followers. Pretty much the highlight of my life.
He's a huge Francesa fan, so it was just a matter of time.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
"Ugh"...?Ugh I can't believe you showed up in my timelineBill just retweeted me to his nearly 5M followers. Pretty much the highlight of my life.
He's a huge Francesa fan, so it was just a matter of time.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
As of his RT about 15 hours ago, I got a little over 100 new followers. He's a blowtorch.How much traffic did it drive?Bill just retweeted me to his nearly 5M followers. Pretty much the highlight of my life.
He's a huge Francesa fan, so it was just a matter of time.
ETA: I was so blown away by the Simmons RT, I forgot to mention being in the Post yesterday morning (very end of the column). That's a pretty good day. Phil is technologically challenged. He doesn't really get Twitter. He thinks I'm a website. I think that's the 6th or 7th time he's mentioned my work, and it's always appreciated. He's a good dude.
This is the Dallas pick to which he refers, if anyone cares.
And this is the clip that Simmons retweeted.
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Peyton Marino
Footballguy
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Fake. There's no way that a kid could be that familiar with Bill Simmons' writing, because Simmons hasn't written anything in 5 years.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Wow - I always assumed if you became a social media sensation it would be in the porn category.As of his RT about 15 hours ago, I got a little over 100 new followers. He's a blowtorch.How much traffic did it drive?Bill just retweeted me to his nearly 5M followers. Pretty much the highlight of my life.
He's a huge Francesa fan, so it was just a matter of time.
ETA: I was so blown away by the Simmons RT, I forgot to mention being in the Post yesterday morning (very end of the column). That's a pretty good day. Phil is technologically challenged. He doesn't really get Twitter. He thinks I'm a website. I think that's the 6th or 7th time he's mentioned my work, and it's always appreciated. He's a good dude.
This is the Dallas pick to which he refers, if anyone cares.
And this is the clip that Simmons retweeted.
bentley
Footballguy
I agree completely about Gladwell. His books are such a beating but I feel obligated to read everyone because they are so taken as gospel in the corporate world. Wish everyone else loved Dubner/Levitt the way I do.
The podcast is hit or miss for me. I have zero interest in wagering but love the pop culture stuff. Seems like the Bill Simmons Podcast is a lot more wagering-heavy than his previous work.
Simmons did make a big improvement in that the episode descriptions state when his discussion of various topics starts and ends. It's great to be able to skip the parts you aren't particularly interested in.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I was going to say that's funny because I basically skip all the pop culture stuff to get to the NBA and wagering on NFL discussions HAHAthecatch said:
facook
Footballguy
Me too. Gladwell I can stand, mainly because I haven't heard him as much (I skip his crappy books). But Klosterman can take a long walk off a short pier. He's the king of looking at a topic in a completely asinine way, and talking about his asinine thoughts as if they are new and interesting. They are not. They are stupid. And Simmons strokes him the whole way - probably because Simmons is the queen of that particular process.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
CONGRATS RN!
Also, Francesa's not wrong on a lot of this, but it's still great.
Also, Francesa's not wrong on a lot of this, but it's still great.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
I don't really care about Gladwell or Klosterman. I don't "get" them at allSimilar threads
