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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (23 Viewers)

barackdhouse said:
But so many people are down on him for some reason. I honestly don't get it. Jack Doyle is not in his way.
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I traded Ebron away in two of the 3 leagues I own him and I did so because I do in fact think Doyle is in his way. Seemed pretty clear that was the case last year and if anything with adding Funchess and to a lesser degree Parris I think it might be worse.   If you isolate Ebron's games with Doyle last year he did do ok but he also scored a TD at a pace of one a game if you just look at the 5 games that Doyle was able to start and finish which is weeks 1-2, 8, 10-11..  It's obvious Ebron has become a big time red zone threat but I don't want to rely on a guy needing to score a TD every week on limited snaps because in the 5 full games that Doyle was able to play and finish Ebron averaged just 23.4 snaps, 2.6 catches and 36.6 yards to go along with one TD a game. That' some pretty light non-TD production and one of those 5 games he goose egged you which when you playing limited snaps and not always on the field in the 2 minute offense you are going to be prone to do.

I still have Ebron on one team and I have Doyle on that team. I'd like to think I got two starting caliber TE options out of the duo but really kind of afraid I just got a big WDIS  headache. This is not a PC thing to say but I'd probably be happier about this situation if one of them got hurt again.

That's his outlook for 2019 IMO anyway and I'll just assume he will recover fine from his groin surgery.  Of course both he and Doyle are in the last year of their deals and Funchess was only signed on a one year deal so his situation and team could look drastically different next year so I can see him working out for teams in the long run.

Do agree he has gotten better almost each year of his career, he did take a dip the first half of his last season in Detroit which he tried to chalk up to being worried about getting traded. And despite the lack of TD's the second half of his last season in Detroit he was actually more efficient then he was last year, as good as he did last year he still failed to come down with several passes he should have including many in the red zone.

Lastly these are TE premium leagues/FFPC as you know it so not PPR but as it relates to competing against his fellow TE's it's actually worse in this format to be TD dependent for a TE. I'd rather have the high volume reception guy who never sees the endzone, like Jason Witten when he was good, in this format.

 
barackdhouse said:
I wouldn't sell him for less than a high 1st, and even then only if I had a legitimate TE1 in front of him. He has gotten better almost every year, is still young, and in a GREAT spot. 2018 may have been his high water mark, but in PPR his finish would have been good for WR20. I would never let him go for a 2nd. I think his value ought to be much higher. I know nobody is paying an early 1st, but I wouldn't sell for less than that. What I would be more inclined to do is package him with something else and really try to pump up his value. But so many people are down on him for some reason. I honestly don't get it. Jack Doyle is not in his way.
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I still own him in a couple leagues, and I’m a bitter lions fan that was pretty motivated to get him off my team. I tried several different trade ideas but ultimately that’s what I could get- 2.03 and 2.01. 

 
barackdhouse said:
False Narrative - that Doyle will block Ebron

2018 results

Ebron PPR with Doyle playing : 17.7 PPG (12.1 for Doyle)

Ebron PPR w/o Doyle playing :  13.6 PPG

With both playing, Ebron put up 

15.1

11.6

12.7

27.9

21.5

With Ebron by himself, he put up:

8.3

15.0

31.5

17.0

6.1

18.1

16.5

1.8

5.8

16.0

Not sure we can say a lot about the difference here. Ebron actually did better with Doyle *in* the lineup, but had plenty of good games and a few clunkers in games without Doyle. I think the take home message is that Doyle sucks and that Ebron should be considered a main target in an Andrew Luck offense for the next several years.

For good measure, Doyle had:

13

4

22

8.1

10.3

13.6
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I just made a long post before seeing this so let me just say the snap and target counts for Ebron in the 5 full games with Doyle vs the 10 without him is night and day difference.

Snap counts:

37(which afterward Reich said was to much and as you can see by usage ROS with Doyle he meant it)

17

17

21

25

So he gets 37 snaps, Reich says it is more then they want to use him, and he then proceeds to be very much a part time player in the other 4 full games with Doyle. A very efficient part time player but that's what he was, a specialized weapon really. And btw Ebron is good with this arrangement, said it was discussed before he signed.

Average is 23.6 snaps, exactly 3 targets a game in those 5 games with Doyle.

Doyle played most of week 12 but the hit that ended his season was early in 4th quarter, Ebron caught 2 more passes after Doyle left, one for a TD, but I'm throwing that hybrid game out in large part because I simply don't know how to sort out the snap count, not cherry picking.

So I got 10 games left of all Ebron with no Doyle and in those 10 games he averaged 46.7 snaps, 8.8 targets a game.

Let's put this side by side:

5 full games with Doyle: 23.6 snaps, 3 targets

10 full games without Doyle: 46.7 snaps, 8.8 targets

As I alluded to earlier he scored fine in fantasy without Doyle because he scored 5 TD's in 5 games but I just don't trust relying on that from a player with so few snaps and targets.

 
hispeedthinmint said:
Price check on Ebron in PPR?
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I'd say 1.6. I'd take Ebron over Hockenson.

I think its a mistake to assume that just because Doyle out snapped him last year, that he will again. That was before Ebron had a big year, and Doyle had multiple injuries including a season ender.

Ebron is kind of in that "so overrated that he's underrated" bubble, where while he's obviously not going to have 700 yards, and 13 TD's again, its just as unlikely that he'll drop back to 500-4. 

 
Zow said:
So here some value discussion on Darnold and Kyler.  I had 1.2 in a 2qb rookie/FA draft. Jacobs went first so Kyler was obvious pick. After some back and forth the best offer I got was Darnold, Gesicki, and Lesean McCoy.  Would up turning it down. 

For comparison, was also offered:

1.3 and Marvin Jones

1.5 and 1.10

Kirk Cousins

Golladay and 1.5 
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Update: 

Same owner just offered me Darnold and DK Metcalf for Kyler.  I think I gotta do it. 

 
travdogg said:
I'd say 1.6. I'd take Ebron over Hockenson.

I think its a mistake to assume that just because Doyle out snapped him last year, that he will again. That was before Ebron had a big year, and Doyle had multiple injuries including a season ender.

Ebron is kind of in that "so overrated that he's underrated" bubble, where while he's obviously not going to have 700 yards, and 13 TD's again, its just as unlikely that he'll drop back to 500-4. 
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Timely.  Was just offered Ebron for Hockenson. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I wouldn't sell him for less than a high 1st, and even then only if I had a legitimate TE1 in front of him. He has gotten better almost every year, is still young, and in a GREAT spot. 2018 may have been his high water mark, but in PPR his finish would have been good for WR20. I would never let him go for a 2nd. I think his value ought to be much higher. I know nobody is paying an early 1st, but I wouldn't sell for less than that. What I would be more inclined to do is package him with something else and really try to pump up his value. But so many people are down on him for some reason. I honestly don't get it. Jack Doyle is not in his way.
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Doyle destroyed Ebron's snap count when he came back. I think he's absolutely in his way.

 
dipandglide said:
Thoughts on Landry? Are you guys buying or selling for a mid-1st?
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That’s tough imo. I’ve never been on the Landry bandwagon, but it’s hard to say “I’d rather have” with this draft class. Reasonable floor low ceiling for Landry, I’d like a guy with a bigger ceiling, but it’s really risky with this class. 

 
Snorkelson said:
That’s tough imo. I’ve never been on the Landry bandwagon, but it’s hard to say “I’d rather have” with this draft class. Reasonable floor low ceiling for Landry, I’d like a guy with a bigger ceiling, but it’s really risky with this class. 
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I had the chance to do so with Metcalf and Deebo still on the board and I passed, but it was partly team composition. If I was going to start Landry, I would take the deal. I think "bigger ceiling" is so arbitrary. If Mayfield succeeds to his current dynasty valuation, Landry has great upside, assuming full PPR.

 
Snorkelson said:
That’s tough imo. I’ve never been on the Landry bandwagon, but it’s hard to say “I’d rather have” with this draft class. Reasonable floor low ceiling for Landry, I’d like a guy with a bigger ceiling, but it’s really risky with this class. 
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Out of the WR's I'll play your game

I'd rather have:

Deebo Samuel, N'Keal Harry, AJ Brown, Parris Campbell, DK Metcalf, Andy Isabella, Mecole Hardman

One of those is usually slipping to mid 2nd in most of my drafts so no, I wouldn't pay a 1st at all.  I'd rather replace him with a rookie who I view to have solid floors.  Those are all of them.  

 
thriftyrocker said:
I had the chance to do so with Metcalf and Deebo still on the board and I passed, but it was partly team composition. If I was going to start Landry, I would take the deal. I think "bigger ceiling" is so arbitrary. If Mayfield succeeds to his current dynasty valuation, Landry has great upside, assuming full PPR.
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How about “Landry won’t be more than a volume driven ppr asset on a team that has added more and more weapons that threaten his volume.” 

 
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thriftyrocker said:
I had the chance to do so with Metcalf and Deebo still on the board and I passed, but it was partly team composition. If I was going to start Landry, I would take the deal. I think "bigger ceiling" is so arbitrary. If Mayfield succeeds to his current dynasty valuation, Landry has great upside, assuming full PPR.
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I’ll also point to mahomes season as an argument against your point but admit it is a valid point and the mahomes season could be an outlier. No good wr2 there.

 
Snorkelson said:
I’ll also point to mahomes season as an argument against your point but admit it is a valid point and the mahomes season could be an outlier. No good wr2 there.
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Kelce functioned as the WR2, right? And he had 100 receptions. I view OBJ as a positive. I don't think Landry can function well as a NFL WR1 with just Njoku and Duke Johnson to complement him, unless Baker becomes Tom Brady (or Jake Delhomme). But with OBJ there, it clears the middle for him. I don't expect Baker to approximate Mahomes' season anytime soon (possible but will take old school QB development not new school breaking the meta). Landry can still be a low WR1 with the current team composition, IMO.

 
Zyphros said:
Out of the WR's I'll play your game

I'd rather have:

Deebo Samuel, N'Keal Harry, AJ Brown, Parris Campbell, DK Metcalf, Andy Isabella, Mecole Hardman

One of those is usually slipping to mid 2nd in most of my drafts so no, I wouldn't pay a 1st at all.  I'd rather replace him with a rookie who I view to have solid floors.  Those are all of them.  
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This is how I see it.

Also I think when the running game is effective it's  takes away from Landry who I think is often used as extension of the running game. In 2016 in Miami when Ajay took off his targets plummeted. Last year when Chubb took over same thing. He is a volume dependent WR who I don't project to get nearly the volume he has in the past. He'll be more efficient, but it's not a fair trade off.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Kelce functioned as the WR2, right? And he had 100 receptions. I view OBJ as a positive. I don't think Landry can function well as a NFL WR1 with just Njoku and Duke Johnson to complement him, unless Baker becomes Tom Brady (or Jake Delhomme). But with OBJ there, it clears the middle for him. I don't expect Baker to approximate Mahomes' season anytime soon (possible but will take old school QB development not new school breaking the meta). Landry can still be a low WR1 with the current team composition, IMO.
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Like I said I’ve never been on the bandwagon and he’s proven me wrong several times, so I won’t beat this drum too hard. 

 
Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.

 
Born to Run said:
Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.
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You need to immediately try to get their 2020 firsts then, since they clearly don't understand their value at this point. 

 
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Born to Run said:
Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.
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This is the type of trade I look to make every year, just can't always find any takers. This year in particular as nearly everyone is valuing 2020 1st's thru the roof.

All it takes is an injury, suspension or disappointing player and that borderline playoff team is picking high the next year.

 
Born to Run said:
Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.
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How is that possibly a rip off? 

 
Regarding the Landry discussion, i traded him away this off-season as I am worried that Mayfield just does not seem to like to play the short game, which is Landry's specialty and I just don't think the volume will be there for him to have very high value.  He was my WR4 in a start 2 league so he wasn't a crucial piece.  All of that said, I'd definitely deal him away for a mid first this year but that's just me.

 
Born to Run said:
Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.
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That's literally what every trade-out looks like when it's 2 futures for the current first round pick.

EDIT: Unless it's a very early 1st... then it should be 1st/2nd but those are rare.

 
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How do you value Stafford in a SuperFlex format? I always think of him as a middle of the road guy and I'm not sure Patricia is going to be good for his passing numbers. The Sony Michel owner put out a feeler about Damien Harris and asked about my interest in Stafford. Passing TDs are 4 pts, Ints are -2 pts.

 
wgoldsph said:
Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?
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I think so, but I also think Pettis is better than any of the guys they drafted. In addition, Shanahan's offense is a complex one, and even the best players have said it isn't until year 2 that they feel comfortable. Pettis has a pretty big leg up there, in addition to being at least if not more talented than Samuel.

 
wgoldsph said:
Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?
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I admittedly didn't like Pettis last year and his rookie year suggests I may have underrated him some, but he still seems pretty JAG-y to me. Good burst, but you expect that when you're talking about a WR with a famine-like BMI. In terms of weight-per-height, he is in the same range as people like Marquise Brown and DeSean Jackson. Very light frame, yet he isn't as explosive as those guys. I don't see a likely path to a WR1 role for an NFL team in his future. That the Niners went out and spent two top 75 picks on WRs isn't necessarily the end of Pettis, but it doesn't really bode well either.

I think Samuel is clearly the SF WR to own, as he was the highest pick of the lot and his play style is probably most conducive to a prolific FF output. He's a versatile weapon and with his strength/RAC skills, can be a target monster. Jimmy G had good success two years ago slinging bombs to Goodwin and Samuel isn't necessarily built to be the deep threat. He's more of a RAC chain mover type, but in PPR where reception volume is important, I still think he's the guy you want. I would even recommend him as a sneaky late pick in redraft, though rookie output can be tough to predict. His play style is reminiscent of Boldin and JuJu, and this type of WR has had some success at hitting the ground running.

I think this rookie draft class is pretty thin and there's a point beyond roughly the mid 2nd where I stop liking the WR talent. I would take Deebo, AJ Brown, Harry, M Brown, and Isabella over Pettis. I don't care for Metcalf much, but from a market value standpoint he's > Pettis. When things thin out and you get into the Diontae/McLaurin/Boykin/Hurd portion of the rookie draft, I think Pettis starts to look pretty good, but that's usually the late 2nd-early 3rd. That's about what I'd feel okay giving up for Pettis if I needed WR help.

 
Born to Run said:
Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.
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Your league mates are idiots. My thoughts.

 
wgoldsph said:
Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?
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Easily.

If he and Deebo had come out at the same time, I'd probably like Deebo a little more as a prospect. But once a guy has shown legitimate NFL talent they've got a clear leg up on any rookie, no matter where they are drafted. In this case, they were drafted at just about the same spot and they are currently about the same age. I'd pay a late 1st for Pettis if I had the option.

 
wgoldsph said:
Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?
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I'd take 8 WR's over him in this draft but since those 8 WR's are usually off the board in the early to middle round 2 area I think a mid to late second sounds about right to me.

 
wgoldsph said:
Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?
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Someone traded 2.04 and 2.11 for him in one of my leagues while our rookie draft was going.  

I don’t think he’s worth that or even an earl 2nd alone but to some he is.  I just think it’s a mistake.

 
Snorkelson said:
Born to Run said:
Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.
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Your league mates are idiots. My thoughts. 
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This is why I love this game, because it can be so dynamic.  For me, it depends on who is on the board.  I was not going to trade my 1.14 while Fant was there, once he went I moved it for a 2020.  But if a wildcard team gets a contributor at that pick, that 2020 might be an even later one. 

It's way, way too early to call 2020 a deeper or better draft after the top 5.  Yes, it's LOADED at the top.  But after the obvious Swift/Ettiene/Akers/Jeudy/Lamb/maybe Taylor tier what next?  Dobbins looked the part as a freshman but didn't look nearly as dynamic last year - this coming from a raging OSU homer.  12 months ago people were raging about Harmon and Bryan Edwards and look at them now.  Is Taylor legit or is there any part of a dominating system propping him up?   Everyone else looks like guys we're trying to fill a top 10 list rather than guys that are putting themselves on it.  I haven't seen Shenault live so maybe I am missing that but if you're offering me a guy that I know I like today vs. a guy I might not have any control over I am fine keeping/trading for that.

That being said I have 12 2020 1sts in 4 leagues and I do love them.  I just think people are overdoing it at times.

 
Concept Coop said:
Who are the cheap, older vets you are targeting for depth, or as short-term patches in your lineups?
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I've been trying to get my hands on Robby Anderson a lot lately, but nobody seems to be budging on him being a 1st round pick.  I don't see it and thought he'd be cheaper.  Same goes for Enunwa except he is cheap and very obtainable for WR3 type value that I think he can deliver.  

Devante Parker is another guy, he is the default #1 on the team and I feel like Adam Gase really screwed with his potential and his mental makeup.  He gets a new coaching staff and a clean slate to not get in the dog house, but he's cheap and probably a decent WR3 on a squad.  

Julian Edelman is going to be ultra productive this year, people are sleeping on him because I assume they think he's only a playoff guy.  Not sure of his price though.  1 ADP source I use has him going 11.02 in startups and another source has him at 7.06.  I think both are values if you go RB early.  I'm more fond of the 11th round though.  

Donte Moncrief I like a lot as well.  I don't believe in James Washington or Vance being a huge beneficiary to AB being gone, Moncrief is solid yet unspectacular, kind of sneaky good.  Probably cheap. 

John Brown I can see a case for him as well although I won't be targeting him.  

As for RB's I'm snatching up some TJ Yeldon, Brian Hill, D'onte Foreman and Lamar Miller.  All of who are either somewhat cheap or cheap as dirt with good opportunity in front of them to be a RB2.  Lamar Miller obviously being the safest of that bunch.  But I liked Foreman a lot coming out of college (hopefully he can return to form).  I believe the bills will cut Shady, that leaves 36 year old Gore as the main competition, and Brian Hill has opportunity once Freeman gets hurt again.  

These guys aren't exactly "old" but I tend to stay away from the 30 year olds.  Edelman is the exception.

 
Edelman is a big one for me. 

I really like Enunwa, but he seems to only produce when he’s in the slot. With Crowder and Bell on the roster, that’s not likely to happen very often. He’s still a guy I’ll be jumping on if cut, and might even move a small piece for, I just don’t expect to be able to start him this season.

I like Brown and even Beasley as options. Not expecting a whole lot, but they’re essentially free (Beasley literally).

Outside of those you mentioned, I like Brees, Boyle and LMcCoy at their ADPs. I expect WR3 numbers from Fitz, so I’d move a future 3rd for him, if I have room for him in my lineup. I’ll buy Rudolph if his owners think he’s done after the Irv pick.

These are all contingent on my roster, of course. I like to invest in top tier guys and get my depth from cheap vets or WW pickups. I’m only going out of my way to get these guys if I have a need for them.

 
Zyphros said:
Donte Moncrief I like a lot as well.  I don't believe in James Washington or Vance being a huge beneficiary to AB being gone, Moncrief is solid yet unspectacular, kind of sneaky good.  Probably cheap. 
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And sneaky young. I think he's only like a year older than Calvin Ridley and two years older than Deebo.

 
Yeah Moncrief and Funchess. I haven't actually been able to buy Funchess this offseason, yet I seem to be the only person that likes him. 

 
Concept Coop said:
Who are the cheap, older vets you are targeting for depth, or as short-term patches in your lineups?
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Feels like a trick question because there aren't any.

WR is real tough. I like Albert Wilson in Miami. I think Golden Tate is undervalued based on his struggles fitting in with Philly and will do better with a full offseason in NY, but still wouldn't go for him. I would rather pay a 4th for Cobb than a 2nd for Tate, but if you really need the starter Tate is a much better bet.

TE seems the easiest position to go cheap. If I were doing a startup, I'd probably take Irv or Sternberger as a TE1, then grab 3 of Walker, Olsen, Eifert, Waller, McDonald, ASJ, and figure it out. Ed Dickson is someone I like for no good reason.

RB its still easy to get a RB2 type like Yeldon, Ekeler, or Duke Johnson. I don't feel good about any of the old workhorses or damaged goods prospects. Loading up on the 3rd or 4th best options in KC, Pitt, LAR, or Indy seems like a good strategy too.

 
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