Blick
Footballguy
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
MAC_32
Footballguy
I would not use the word 'great,' but I think he is a capable lead RB. That said, even in an optimal situation he would need to be paired with a passing downs asset for both hurry-up and coming-from-behind purposes.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I came around a little bit on him last season, but there was always something about his running style that bothered me (too frenetic?) and I was not a believer.
I also think Fournette coming back and, to a lesser extent, Gio potentialy becoming a security blanket for Brady and cutting into RB snaps make his 2021 murky at best.
I agree with those saying his value is somewhere in the mid second round range. He’s probably worth more than that because we have all seen he’s a capable NFL RB but I’m just not sure he ever gets a full chance to be a high volume back, nor that he really deserves one.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think he has fickle coaching, so between that and his lack of passing game chops his relatively hot-and-cold play gets magnified. Typically, if a RB hasn't broken out by now then he won't, but...has RoJo already broken out and all he needs is a team to trust him week-to-week? will there be a team willing to give him that rope? or is Arians right in that he's just too inconsistent to rely on a weekly basis? I think all of that explains his current market, but even if he misses worst case he provides inconsistent depth over the next couple-few years. I think that's worth a gamble if his owner is receptive to an offer once we fall below a certain point in the 2nd round. I don't know that point right now though.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
The days of "high volume backs" have dwindled over the years and we as fantasy players haven't embraced it very well IMO. It's become like chasing saves in baseball. Closers get replaced a lot more than they used to.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. This past draft class and this incoming class show potential to add to some of the young but aging high volume backs like Cook, Kamara and Jones. I think there was just a dry spell of good backs entering the league for a three year period so it became more rare.
I don’t think we’re going back to full time and spell backs but I do think there’s still going to be backs that see heavy workloads, and those will be the backs you want of course.
rockaction
Footballguy
Think there's something to what JohnnyU is saying about RBs and committees, I just for the life of me have no idea how to handle the rise of teams using match-up heavy decisions while solving scoring variance in fantasy. Combine that with the ascendancy of the hot hand theory and any predictive model seems doomed to failure.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
I think this is the most likely outcome, but I also think that's baked into his market rate. The likelihood of hitting on a rb after round one is not good.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So my first pick this year is 3.12
I’ve been watching Brian Pringle news since last postseason when he had a nice run. Watkins is gone & the Chiefs have talked up Pringle as the potential full-time slot man.
I noticed he’a a FA. Now I’m hoping he’s there for me at 3.12 - I just don’t see any rookie there that could deliver the same value.
I’ve been watching Brian Pringle news since last postseason when he had a nice run. Watkins is gone & the Chiefs have talked up Pringle as the potential full-time slot man.
I noticed he’a a FA. Now I’m hoping he’s there for me at 3.12 - I just don’t see any rookie there that could deliver the same value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
yeah - now I have 2 bullets to dodge:
1. KC doesn’t take a WR
2. talking heads don’t start yammering about Pringle 24/7 between the draft & my pick at 3.12
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Higgins ADP is likely overvalued at WR13 today, I think he drops down to a back-end WR2 if Chase is taken. For Burrow's safety sake, I hope this doesn't happen.
kutta
Footballguy
12 team PPR, I’m a top 3 team and so is the guy I proposed this trade to.
I give: Davante Adams, 1.11, 2.01
He gives: Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, and 2022 1st.
I may be light on my side but wanted to throw it out to see what response I got. I also have the 1.09 this year.
I shall report back.
I give: Davante Adams, 1.11, 2.01
He gives: Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, and 2022 1st.
I may be light on my side but wanted to throw it out to see what response I got. I also have the 1.09 this year.
I shall report back.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
robb
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
I figured:
2.01 = future first (it will be late)
Adams > Jefferson (by a sliver)
Thomas > 1.11 (by a bigger margin)
So I don’t think it’s too far off, but I don’t think it’s crazy bad either.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Adam's value in terms of draft picks if Rodgers is traded?
Gotta guess mid-late 1st this year
Gotta guess mid-late 1st this year
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
He is for me. I wouldn’t trade him straight up.
ETA: The first site I pulled up is FantasyPros and they have Adams the #1 WR and Jefferson the #5. Thomas is 9. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/dynasty-wr.php
I guess I'm not alone.
Edit again:
PFF has Adams as the overall number 5 player, Jefferson at 12, and Thomas at 30.
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-jahnke-2021-dynasty-fantasy-football-rankings
And another...
https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/15698900/mike-clay-top-240-dynasty-fantasy-football-rankings-nfl
One more for good measure:
https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/rankings/dynasty
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FWIW Jefferson is the consensus 1.01 in dynasty startup drafts right now and that was before the Rodgers rumors.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
As free bagel said...
Stop looking at redraft rankings
And that was before Rodgers rumors.
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kutta
Footballguy
LOL. Every one of those rankings were dynasty. Take a closer look. Not sure what you are seeing...
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Again, read freebagels post.
He is dead on. Jefferson before Adam's in startups. Handily
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If your side of that offer is so great then keep it.
Jefferson>>>>Adam's
Thomas>>>pick 11
Future 1st>>>>>pick 2.01 all day every day
Jefferson>>>>Adam's
Thomas>>>pick 11
Future 1st>>>>>pick 2.01 all day every day
kutta
Footballguy
I did read his post and I'm responding to it. But your snarky comment about redraft rankings was off base and had nothing to do with his post.
kutta
Footballguy
Can you post some ADP's that you are seeing? I see one site where Jefferson is ahead of Adams slightly, but none where he is the 1.01. I see lots of sites where Adams is ahead of Jefferson in ADP.
kutta
Footballguy
Need to rethink, he loses on every piece of that trade IMO.
2.01 < future first
Adams < Jefferson
1.11 <<< Thomas
kutta
Footballguy
It sounds like I'm overvaluing Adams I guess. Just about every rankings site has Adams ahead of Jefferson. And I'm seeing him ahead in ADP also. And I wouldn't trade Adams for Jefferson straight up. I guess I'm behind the times...
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Sorry I mis-spoke. I mean to say the #1 WR in startup drafts not 1.01 overall. He is nowhere close to 1.01 overall, the RBs dominate the early 1st round this year.
My two main sources for ADP are mizelle and FFPC.
Mizelle is here: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2021/
FFPC startup adp is paid data so I can't link it but it has JJ as WR1 and Adams WR3 (behind Metcalf as well).
Ultimately I think a lot of it comes down to preference between the two from owner to owner but I would gander that more owners prefer JJ to Adams than the other way around. KeepTradeCut is crowdsourced data that also can give an idea of the answer to that and it has JJ well ahead of Adams. It actually has JJ = Adams+1.12.
Again this is all pre-Rodgers rumors as well. I'm not sure how much teeth there is to those rumors but there is no doubt they are probably moving Adams' value a bit right now.
ETA: Also anecdotal but I've done 4 startups this offseason (all FFPC) and JJ was the 1st WR off the board in all of them.
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kutta
Footballguy
Thanks - I appreciate the info.
It's weird to me that truly, just about every ranking site I look at has Adams ahead. Even FBG's, both Hammond and Wood rank Adams as the #2 player overall, and Jefferson at 9 and 11.
Would agree, if Adams was a little younger it would probably be more of a toss-up, but people are (rightfully) salivating over a decade of Jefferson as a top WR after his historic rookie season.
kutta
Footballguy
Interestingly, if you include all the drafts from Jan-April, Adams is the number 1 WR.
What that really showed me though was my thoughts on Thomas being pretty far off. He's just behind the 1.01 this year. I had him nowhere near that valuable.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah it's kind of a constant struggle deciding on which gives a better picture rankings vs. ADP.
Both have their uses and both have their faults. ADP tends to really be volatile when you're comparing across different positions because that will depend heavily on how someone wants to build their team, what their needs are, what the league setup is like (how many WRs do you have to start, etc), etc.
I think across the same position I often prefer it to rankings because it involves people actually putting their money where their mouth is. Someone doing rankings can basically put whatever they want in there. Whatever sounds good, or they can half-### it and just kind of fill things out if they don't feel like putting too much thought into it right now, etc. There are no consequences. I think that's very different than someone actually making a decision that will affect their team like actually choosing which of the two they want on their team. I think often people's rankings don't line up with the moves they'd make in a real life league when push comes to shove and they're deciding between two players.
It's all an inexact science, though.
ETA: I also think rankings are more slow moving compared to ADP because most people just kind of dabble in their rankings most of the offseason, before sitting down for one really in depth edit closer to the season. I wouldn't be surprised to see JJ passing Adams in more and more rankings as more rankers sit down to do their "real" rankings rather than just sitting down for 3 minutes and flipping a few things around real quick so their website says it was last updated today instead of a month ago.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
What credible site would rank a 29 year old WR as the #1 dynasty WR???
You can easily make a case for like 6 other WRs over him. Metcalf, Brown, Jefferson, Tyreek, and even guys like Lamb and Chase.
If Rodgers leaves, probably 15 other WRs
You can easily make a case for like 6 other WRs over him. Metcalf, Brown, Jefferson, Tyreek, and even guys like Lamb and Chase.
If Rodgers leaves, probably 15 other WRs
kutta
Footballguy
First of all, he's 28. Second, pretty much every ranking site out there has Adams ahead of Jefferson in dynasty. I just posted that both FBG rankers have him as the number 2 player overall.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
This is not hard.First of all, he's 28. Second, pretty much every ranking site out there has Adams ahead of Jefferson in dynasty. I just posted that both FBG rankers have him as the number 2 player overall.
Jefferson is 21. Adams is 28.
Jefferson just had an amazing season with Cousins as his QB; Adams just had an amazing season with Rodgers as his QB. Rodgers >>> Cousins, and now Rodgers may be on the way out, which would presumably leave unknown QB Jordan Love as the GB QB1.
Any dynasty ranking that has Adams > Jefferson seems out of date IMO.
That's what people are telling you here, and you are stubbornly fighting it. It's fine, you can reasonably disagree. Just go with those other rankings you are referencing.
kutta
Footballguy
I'm not fighting anything, and in fact, I said above that it appears I am overvaluing Adams. I'm just making the point that literally, every rankings site I have looked at has Adams over Jefferson. I find it interesting that so many people here are so adamant that Jefferson > Adams.
Now that most of the dust has settled I’m wondering what Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis are worth. Both amazingly dodged all of the biggest threats to their workload, and both could be productive RB2’s in PPR. If you own these guys/want to trade for them, what would you want to get/be willing to give away?
