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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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11 hours ago, Shawnky said:

Yeah, that’s why I’m curious what his worth is. He’s really young and doesn’t have a great deal of use.  I thought he looked great last year, but Arians didn’t seem willing to commit to him as a full time back.  Wondering if he moves on once his contract is up and if that would increase his value. 

I would not use the word 'great,' but I think he is a capable lead RB. That said, even in an optimal situation he would need to be paired with a passing downs asset for both hurry-up and coming-from-behind purposes. 

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49 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I would not use the word 'great,' but I think he is a capable lead RB. That said, even in an optimal situation he would need to be paired with a passing downs asset for both hurry-up and coming-from-behind purposes. 

I came around a little bit on him last season,  but there was always something about his running style that bothered me (too frenetic?) and I was not a believer.

I also think Fournette coming back and, to a lesser extent, Gio potentialy becoming a security blanket for Brady and cutting into RB snaps make his 2021 murky at best.
 

I agree with those saying his value is somewhere in the mid second round range. He’s probably worth more than that because we have all seen he’s a capable NFL RB but I’m just not sure he ever gets a full chance to be a high volume back, nor that he really deserves one.

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Just IMO, but this time next year Rojo will likely be just as Conner, Drake, Fournette, etc. this off-season and probably lucky to land a second contract with an opportunity to start or split the load.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I came around a little bit on him last season,  but there was always something about his running style that bothered me (too frenetic?) and I was not a believer.

I also think Fournette coming back and, to a lesser extent, Gio potentialy becoming a security blanket for Brady and cutting into RB snaps make his 2021 murky at best.
 

I agree with those saying his value is somewhere in the mid second round range. He’s probably worth more than that because we have all seen he’s a capable NFL RB but I’m just not sure he ever gets a full chance to be a high volume back, nor that he really deserves one.

I think he has fickle coaching, so between that and his lack of passing game chops his relatively hot-and-cold play gets magnified. Typically, if a RB hasn't broken out by now then he won't, but...has RoJo already broken out and all he needs is a team to trust him week-to-week? will there be a team willing to give him that rope? or is Arians right in that he's just too inconsistent to rely on a weekly basis? I think all of that explains his current market, but even if he misses worst case he provides inconsistent depth over the next couple-few years. I think that's worth a gamble if his owner is receptive to an offer once we fall below a certain point in the 2nd round. I don't know that point right now though.

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35 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

he’s a capable NFL RB but I’m just not sure he ever gets a full chance to be a high volume back, nor that he really deserves one.

The days of "high volume backs" have dwindled over the years and we as fantasy players haven't embraced it very well IMO. It's become like chasing saves in baseball.  Closers get replaced a lot more than they used to.

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24 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

The days of "high volume backs" have dwindled over the years and we as fantasy players haven't embraced it very well IMO. It's become like chasing saves in baseball.  Closers get replaced a lot more than they used to.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. This past draft class and this incoming class show potential to add to some of the young but aging high volume backs like Cook, Kamara and Jones. I think there was just a dry spell of good backs entering the league for a three year period so it became more rare.

I don’t think we’re going back to full time and spell backs but I do think there’s still going to be backs that see heavy workloads, and those will be the backs you want of course.

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Think there's something to what JohnnyU is saying about RBs and committees, I just for the life of me have no idea how to handle the rise of teams using match-up heavy decisions while solving scoring variance in fantasy. Combine that with the ascendancy of the hot hand theory and any predictive model seems doomed to failure.

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42 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Just IMO, but this time next year Rojo will likely be just as Conner, Drake, Fournette, etc. this off-season and probably lucky to land a second contract with an opportunity to start or split the load.

I think this is the most likely outcome, but I also think that's baked into his market rate. The likelihood of hitting on a rb after round one is not good.

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So my first pick this year is 3.12

I’ve been watching Brian Pringle news since last postseason when he had a nice run. Watkins is gone & the Chiefs have talked up Pringle as the potential full-time slot man. 

I noticed he’a a FA. Now I’m hoping he’s there for me at 3.12 - I just don’t see any rookie there that could deliver the same value. :shrug: 

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13 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I'm glad I threw that December dart at Byron Pringle. We'll see in a few days if there's a potential payoff.

yeah - now I have 2 bullets to dodge: 

1. KC doesn’t take a WR

2. talking heads don’t start yammering about Pringle 24/7 between the draft & my pick at 3.12

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1 hour ago, osiriskid said:

What's Tee Higgins value if Ja'marr Chase comes to town?

Higgins ADP is likely overvalued at WR13 today, I think he drops down to a back-end WR2 if Chase is taken.  For Burrow's safety sake, I hope this doesn't happen.

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12 team PPR, I’m a top 3 team and so is the guy I proposed this trade to. 
 

I give: Davante Adams, 1.11, 2.01

He gives: Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, and 2022 1st.

I may be light on my side but wanted to throw it out to see what response I got. I also have the 1.09 this year.

I shall report back.

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3 minutes ago, kutta said:

12 team PPR, I’m a top 3 team and so is the guy I proposed this trade to. 
 

I give: Davante Adams, 1.11, 2.01

He gives: Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, and 2022 1st.

I may be light on my side but wanted to throw it out to see what response I got. I also have the 1.09 this year.

I shall report back.

Honestly, can’t see any reason why he would even consider this.  

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7 minutes ago, kutta said:

12 team PPR, I’m a top 3 team and so is the guy I proposed this trade to. 
 

I give: Davante Adams, 1.11, 2.01

He gives: Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, and 2022 1st.

I may be light on my side but wanted to throw it out to see what response I got. I also have the 1.09 this year.

I shall report back.

This is horrible even if Rodgers stays

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2 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Honestly, can’t see any reason why he would even consider this.  

If Rodgers leaves GB, does Adam’s value drop? If so, by how much?

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

Honestly, can’t see any reason why he would even consider this.  

I figured: 

2.01 = future first (it will be late)

Adams > Jefferson (by a sliver)

Thomas > 1.11 (by a bigger margin)

So I don’t think it’s too far off, but I don’t think it’s crazy bad either.

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15 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

No

He is for me. I wouldn’t trade him straight up.

ETA: The first site I pulled up is FantasyPros and they have Adams the #1 WR and Jefferson the #5. Thomas is 9. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/dynasty-wr.php

I guess I'm not alone.

Edit again:

PFF has Adams as the overall number 5 player, Jefferson at 12, and Thomas at 30.

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-jahnke-2021-dynasty-fantasy-football-rankings

And another...

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/15698900/mike-clay-top-240-dynasty-fantasy-football-rankings-nfl

One more for good measure:

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/rankings/dynasty

Edited by kutta
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21 minutes ago, kutta said:

I figured: 

2.01 = future first (it will be late)

Adams > Jefferson (by a sliver)

Thomas > 1.11 (by a bigger margin)

So I don’t think it’s too far off, but I don’t think it’s crazy bad either.

FWIW Jefferson is the consensus 1.01 in dynasty startup drafts right now and that was before the Rodgers rumors.

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25 minutes ago, kutta said:

He is for me. I wouldn’t trade him straight up.

ETA: The first site I pulled up is FantasyPros and they have Adams the #1 WR and Jefferson the #5. Thomas is 9. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/dynasty-wr.php

I guess I'm not alone.

Edit again:

PFF has Adams as the overall number 5 player, Jefferson at 12, and Thomas at 30.

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-jahnke-2021-dynasty-fantasy-football-rankings

And another...

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/15698900/mike-clay-top-240-dynasty-fantasy-football-rankings-nfl

One more for good measure:

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/rankings/dynasty

As free bagel said...

Stop looking at redraft rankings

And that was before Rodgers rumors.  

Edited by ghostguy123
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Just now, ghostguy123 said:

As free bagel said...

Stop looking at redraft rankings

LOL. Every one of those rankings were dynasty. Take a closer look. Not sure what you are seeing...

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Just now, ghostguy123 said:

Again, read freebagels post.

He is dead on.  Jefferson before Adam's in startups.  Handily

I did read his post and I'm responding to it. But your snarky comment about redraft rankings was off base and had nothing to do with his post.

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

FWIW Jefferson is the consensus 1.01 in dynasty startup drafts right now and that was before the Rodgers rumors.

Can you post some ADP's that you are seeing? I see one site where Jefferson is ahead of Adams slightly, but none where he is the 1.01. I see lots of sites where Adams is ahead of Jefferson in ADP.

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2 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

If your side of that offer is so great then keep it.

Jefferson>>>>Adam's

Thomas>>>pick 11

Future 1st>>>>>pick 2.01 all day every day

OK. Thanks.

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38 minutes ago, kutta said:

12 team PPR, I’m a top 3 team and so is the guy I proposed this trade to. 
 

I give: Davante Adams, 1.11, 2.01

He gives: Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, and 2022 1st.

I may be light on my side but wanted to throw it out to see what response I got. I also have the 1.09 this year.

I shall report back.

Need to rethink, he loses on every piece of that trade IMO.

2.01 < future first

Adams < Jefferson

1.11 <<< Thomas

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2 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Need to rethink, he loses on every piece of that trade IMO.

2.01 < future first

Adams < Jefferson

1.11 <<< Thomas

It sounds like I'm overvaluing Adams I guess. Just about every rankings site has Adams ahead of Jefferson. And I'm seeing him ahead in ADP also. And I wouldn't trade Adams for Jefferson straight up. I guess I'm behind the times...

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5 minutes ago, kutta said:

Can you post some ADP's that you are seeing? I see one site where Jefferson is ahead of Adams slightly, but none where he is the 1.01. I see lots of sites where Adams is ahead of Jefferson in ADP.

Sorry I mis-spoke.  I mean to say the #1 WR in startup drafts not 1.01 overall.  He is nowhere close to 1.01 overall, the RBs dominate the early 1st round this year.

My two main sources for ADP are mizelle and FFPC.

Mizelle is here: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2021/

FFPC startup adp is paid data so I can't link it but it has JJ as WR1 and Adams WR3 (behind Metcalf as well).

Ultimately I think a lot of it comes down to preference between the two from owner to owner but I would gander that more owners prefer JJ to Adams than the other way around.  KeepTradeCut is crowdsourced data that also can give an idea of the answer to that and it has JJ well ahead of Adams.  It actually has JJ = Adams+1.12.

Again this is all pre-Rodgers rumors as well.  I'm not sure how much teeth there is to those rumors but there is no doubt they are probably moving Adams' value a bit right now.

ETA: Also anecdotal but I've done 4 startups this offseason (all FFPC) and JJ was the 1st WR off the board in all of them. 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Sorry I mis-spoke.  I mean to say the #1 WR in startup drafts not 1.01 overall.  He is nowhere close to 1.01 overall, the RBs dominate the early 1st round this year.

My two main sources for ADP are mizelle and FFPC.

Mizelle is here: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2021/

FFPC startup adp is paid data so I can't link it but it has JJ as WR1 and Adams WR3 (behind Metcalf as well).

Ultimately I think a lot of it comes down to preference between the two from owner to owner but I would gander that more owners prefer JJ to Adams than the other way around.  KeepTradeCut is crowdsourced data that also can give an idea of the answer to that and it has JJ well ahead of Adams.  It actually has JJ = Adams+1.12.

Again this is all pre-Rodgers rumors as well.  I'm not sure how much teeth there is to those rumors but there is no doubt they are probably moving Adams' value a bit right now.

Thanks - I appreciate the info.

It's weird to me that truly, just about every ranking site I look at has Adams ahead. Even FBG's, both Hammond and Wood rank Adams as the #2 player overall, and Jefferson at 9 and 11.

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Sorry I mis-spoke.  I mean to say the #1 WR in startup drafts not 1.01 overall.  He is nowhere close to 1.01 overall, the RBs dominate the early 1st round this year.

My two main sources for ADP are mizelle and FFPC.

Mizelle is here: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2021/

FFPC startup adp is paid data so I can't link it but it has JJ as WR1 and Adams WR3 (behind Metcalf as well).

Ultimately I think a lot of it comes down to preference between the two from owner to owner but I would gander that more owners prefer JJ to Adams than the other way around.  KeepTradeCut is crowdsourced data that also can give an idea of the answer to that and it has JJ well ahead of Adams.  It actually has JJ = Adams+1.12.

Again this is all pre-Rodgers rumors as well.  I'm not sure how much teeth there is to those rumors but there is no doubt they are probably moving Adams' value a bit right now.

ETA: Also anecdotal but I've done 4 startups this offseason (all FFPC) and JJ was the 1st WR off the board in all of them. 

Would agree, if Adams was a little younger it would probably be more of a toss-up, but people are (rightfully) salivating over a decade of Jefferson as a top WR after his historic rookie season.

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7 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Sorry I mis-spoke.  I mean to say the #1 WR in startup drafts not 1.01 overall.  He is nowhere close to 1.01 overall, the RBs dominate the early 1st round this year.

My two main sources for ADP are mizelle and FFPC.

Mizelle is here: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2021/

FFPC startup adp is paid data so I can't link it but it has JJ as WR1 and Adams WR3 (behind Metcalf as well).

Ultimately I think a lot of it comes down to preference between the two from owner to owner but I would gander that more owners prefer JJ to Adams than the other way around.  KeepTradeCut is crowdsourced data that also can give an idea of the answer to that and it has JJ well ahead of Adams.  It actually has JJ = Adams+1.12.

Again this is all pre-Rodgers rumors as well.  I'm not sure how much teeth there is to those rumors but there is no doubt they are probably moving Adams' value a bit right now.

Interestingly, if you include all the drafts from Jan-April, Adams is the number 1 WR.

What that really showed me though was my thoughts on Thomas being pretty far off. He's just behind the 1.01 this year. I had him nowhere near that valuable.

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11 minutes ago, kutta said:

Thanks - I appreciate the info.

It's weird to me that truly, just about every ranking site I look at has Adams ahead. Even FBG's, both Hammond and Wood rank Adams as the #2 player overall, and Jefferson at 9 and 11.

Yeah it's kind of a constant struggle deciding on which gives a better picture rankings vs. ADP.

Both have their uses and both have their faults.  ADP tends to really be volatile when you're comparing across different positions because that will depend heavily on how someone wants to build their team, what their needs are, what the league setup is like (how many WRs do you have to start, etc), etc.

I think across the same position I often prefer it to rankings because it involves people actually putting their money where their mouth is.  Someone doing rankings can basically put whatever they want in there.  Whatever sounds good, or they can half-### it and just kind of fill things out if they don't feel like putting too much thought into it right now, etc.  There are no consequences.  I think that's very different than someone actually making a decision that will affect their team like actually choosing which of the two they  want on their team.  I think often people's rankings don't line up with the moves they'd make in a real life league when push comes to shove and they're deciding between two players.

It's all an inexact science, though.

ETA: I also think rankings are more slow moving compared to ADP because most people just kind of dabble in their rankings most of the offseason, before sitting down for one really in depth edit closer to the season.  I wouldn't be surprised to see JJ passing Adams in more and more rankings as more rankers sit down to do their "real" rankings rather than just sitting down for 3 minutes and flipping a few things around real quick so their website says it was last updated today instead of a month ago.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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What credible site would rank a 29 year old WR as the #1 dynasty WR???  

You can easily make a case for like 6 other WRs over him.  Metcalf, Brown, Jefferson, Tyreek, and even guys like Lamb and Chase.  

If Rodgers leaves, probably 15 other WRs

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4 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

What credible site would rank a 29 year old WR as the #1 dynasty WR???  

You can easily make a case for like 6 other WRs over him.  Metcalf, Brown, Jefferson, Tyreek, and even guys like Lamb and Chase.  

If Rodgers leaves, probably 15 other WRs

First of all, he's 28. Second, pretty much every ranking site out there has Adams ahead of Jefferson in dynasty. I just posted that both FBG rankers have him as the number 2 player overall. :shrug:

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

I figured: 

2.01 = future first (it will be late)

Adams > Jefferson (by a sliver)

Thomas > 1.11 (by a bigger margin)

So I don’t think it’s too far off, but I don’t think it’s crazy bad either.

I look at it as/

Adams > Thomas

Jefferson >>>> 1.11

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11 minutes ago, kutta said:

First of all, he's 28. Second, pretty much every ranking site out there has Adams ahead of Jefferson in dynasty. I just posted that both FBG rankers have him as the number 2 player overall. :shrug:

This is not hard.

Jefferson is 21. Adams is 28.

Jefferson just had an amazing season with Cousins as his QB; Adams just had an amazing season with Rodgers as his QB. Rodgers >>> Cousins, and now Rodgers may be on the way out, which would presumably leave unknown QB Jordan Love as the GB QB1.

Any dynasty ranking that has Adams > Jefferson seems out of date IMO.

That's what people are telling you here, and you are stubbornly fighting it. It's fine, you can reasonably disagree. Just go with those other rankings you are referencing.

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3 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

This is not hard.

Jefferson is 21. Adams is 28.

Jefferson just had an amazing season with Cousins as his QB; Adams just had an amazing season with Rodgers as his QB. Rodgers >>> Cousins, and now Rodgers may be on the way out, which would presumably leave unknown QB Jordan Love as the GB QB1.

Any dynasty ranking that has Adams > Jefferson seems out of date IMO.

That's what people are telling you here, and you are stubbornly fighting it. It's fine, you can reasonably disagree. Just go with those other rankings you are referencing.

I'm not fighting anything, and in fact, I said above that it appears I am overvaluing Adams. I'm just making the point that literally, every rankings site I have looked at has Adams over Jefferson. I find it interesting that so many people here are so adamant that Jefferson > Adams.

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Now that most of the dust has settled I’m wondering what Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis are worth. Both amazingly dodged all of the biggest threats to their workload, and both could be productive RB2’s in PPR. If you own these guys/want to trade for them, what would you want to get/be willing to give away? 

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2 minutes ago, dewaser said:

Now that most of the dust has settled I’m wondering what Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis are worth. Both amazingly dodged all of the biggest threats to their workload, and both could be productive RB2’s in PPR. If you own these guys/want to trade for them, what would you want to get/be willing to give away? 

If I own them and need RBs, that is one thing, but I always get the feeling RBs like this are replaceable on a moments notice, so I wouldn't be buying in dynasty leagues.

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