Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Ok so the FF community seems to be pretty high on the following players:

ODB, Barkley, Engram

But low on the following player:

Eli Manning

This makes no sense whatsoever.  While I agree that Manning looked terrible last year, how can we possibly be so high on these other three (and it would seem that they deserve the love), but not on Eli, at least for redraft anyway?  Even ten years ago I couldn't tell the difference between whether Eli was terrible or if he was in a slump, because when he snapped out of it he looked great.  Could Eli rebound this year? If not then how on Earth are people so high on these 3 skill players?

Because you're in a dynasty thread.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 11.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

Wow I think people really need to go back and look at the last 10 years of 1st/2nd round NFL WR picks.  These guys hit at what, a 20% rate?  15%?  It's a miserable number.  I'd be pretty surprised if

15 hours ago, RushHour said:

I guess stranger things have happened but IMO he’s a JAG and likely won’t be in the NFL in 1-2 years. It looks like the 49ers simply wasted a draft pick on him.

I could be wrong of course but a 4th for him? I’d smash accept that. Actually if I owned him anywhere you could have him for free because he would have been on waivers months ago.

Yep. He’s on waivers in 95% of my leagues.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

So the rest of the roster gets a combined thousand yards? I don’t like Eli but the spot is too bad for him to be worse than qb10.

Last year, the entire roster other than Engram and Beckham had 2656/11. But Beckham missed 12 games, Engram missed 1 game, and Barkley was in college. I could see 1656/9 shifting to the big 3, though I agree that extreme is unlikely. I was just illustrating a possible scenario.

I don't know what your last sentence means here. If you are saying Eli will be no worse than QB10 this season, I disagree. He was QB10 in both 2014 and 2015, when he had 4400+/30+. I don't see him as a lock for those totals this year even if Barkley, ODB, and Engram all stay healthy and play well.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I don't know what your last sentence means here. If you are saying Eli will be no worse than QB10 this season, I disagree. He was QB10 in both 2014 and 2015, when he had 4400+/30+. I don't see him as a lock for those totals this year even if Barkley, ODB, and Engram all stay healthy and play well.

Well I do. As long as the skilled players stay healthy he’ll put up top 10 numbers. Won’t be top 5 but low top 10 is a good bet.

And for the get off my lawn crowd, it relates to dynasty because you can get him for almost nothing if you are hurting at qb. I don’t see people saying we can’t talk about Fitzgerald so let’s stay on track.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/20/2018 at 10:22 AM, Gottabesweet said:

According to the value charts the value is closer to 2 Parker's.   Engram is worth 15 in the July Dan Hindery article and Parker is 7.  Engram's value is more in line with Josh Gordon, Sammy Watkins, Corey Davis, and DJ Moore.

Of those I'd rather have Watkins or Davis.

I think it is very rare that you will find an experienced owner who would trade two 7’s (or even two 8’s) for a 15.  The 15 offers far more value by virtue of needing half the roster space to hold the value.  Whether it’s one starter producing 15 with another spot to accumulate points, or one prospect with room for another flyer who might explode into a 15 himself, the value of the roster space is often overlooked in threads like this, but weighs very heavily in the real world...

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Aunt Jemima said:

anyone seen any Gordon deals in the last 2 days?? What is his current price?

Not a completed one, but the second the news broke on him not going to training camp, I offered a future 1st for him.  Declined.  

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Not a completed one, but the second the news broke on him not going to training camp, I offered a future 1st for him.  Declined.  

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

  • Like 12
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/20/2018 at 10:42 PM, barackdhouse said:

Because even though my post was more focused on Eli, it should raise the question of those other 3 player's values as well, in dynasty.  If Eli is garbage then how could these other 3 be so highly valued? It just seems like a major disconnect in FF right now.

I find it unlikely Eli throws 10 TDs to ODB and 8 to Engram but only 4 to other players combined. If he throws for 4000, I'd project something closer to 30 TDs. But I concede the point that maybe these guys could have solid seasons and Eli has a middle of the road season. I just think it's strange when everyone seems to think he is garbage. 

 

 

 

This is why Davis Webb will be on my taxi squad. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, jtd13 said:

If this Gordon smoke ends up being a fire, where does that put Antonio Callaway's value?

still very speculative imo, until he has been out of trouble for awhile. I would rather have Gordon in any scenario where he isnt banned again for sure

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Pwingles said:

Calvin Ridley or '19 1st + DT

I wouldn't draft Ridley in the 1st this year, so any future 1st is an upgrade over Ridley to me.  Plus I get DT?  Yeah I'd easily take that side

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

What are everyone's thoughts on Jordy Nelson?  According to depth chart right now, he's the #2.  He didn't look so great last year but it was Hundley, and Jordy's connection to what Rodgers thinks is just surreal so maybe that's the only reason he bombed last year.  Carr was once an MVP candidate and it's not like Amari is a huge target hog, plus I don't view ANY of their RB's as threats to catches.  Is he worth keeping?  

I'm debating cutting him and just keeping youth on my roster with these guys:  Antonio Callaway, Daesean Hamilton, Keelan Cole, Chad Williams as my bench.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Zyphros said:

What are everyone's thoughts on Jordy Nelson?  According to depth chart right now, he's the #2.  He didn't look so great last year but it was Hundley, and Jordy's connection to what Rodgers thinks is just surreal so maybe that's the only reason he bombed last year.  Carr was once an MVP candidate and it's not like Amari is a huge target hog, plus I don't view ANY of their RB's as threats to catches.  Is he worth keeping?  

I'm debating cutting him and just keeping youth on my roster with these guys:  Antonio Callaway, Daesean Hamilton, Keelan Cole, Chad Williams as my bench.  

I have him rostered in two leagues and while I'm hoping for a some small bounce back, I'm not expecting great things. I think he could see enough targets and change his games enough to be a useful WR3 perhaps. While he's not the raw talent of Larry Fitzgerald he'd be wise to model his game on how LF reimagined himself into a slot/possession type of WR that relies on smarts and strength to get open and haul in receptions.

I do think Dereck Carr bounces back after a poor season and the passing game as a whole should be effective.

I can't see cutting him - have you tried shopping him around. I think there must be some believers left that would pay at least a future 3rd.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I have him rostered in two leagues and while I'm hoping for a some small bounce back, I'm not expecting great things. I think he could see enough targets and change his games enough to be a useful WR3 perhaps. While he's not the raw talent of Larry Fitzgerald he'd be wise to model his game on how LF reimagined himself into a slot/possession type of WR that relies on smarts and strength to get open and haul in receptions.

I do think Derek Carr bounces back after a poor season and the passing game as a whole should be effective.

I can't see cutting him - have you tried shopping him around. I think there must be some believers left that would pay at least a future 3rd.

Agreed. Should be able to get a 3rd. I’m not expecting much and wouldn’t buy but have to believe someone would. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

What draft pick value do people put on Jimmy G for a 1 QB league 12 teamer? 

Trying to trade for him in my league and the only thing I have to offer is lots of draft picks. I have several potential high end 1s, one low end 1, and 2 potential high end 2s. 


I don't want to offer something offensively terrible, or even screw my buddy out on as his owner is a close friend of mine, but just trying to figure out what a fair deal is. QBs seem to be kind of worthless in a 12 team 1 QB league, so I might be better off not even offering anything, but thought I'd check on value in here first 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

What draft pick value do people put on Jimmy G for a 1 QB league 12 teamer? 

Trying to trade for him in my league and the only thing I have to offer is lots of draft picks. I have several potential high end 1s, one low end 1, and 2 potential high end 2s. 


I don't want to offer something offensively terrible, or even screw my buddy out on as his owner is a close friend of mine, but just trying to figure out what a fair deal is. QBs seem to be kind of worthless in a 12 team 1 QB league, so I might be better off not even offering anything, but thought I'd check on value in here first 

A 2nd rounder tops

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

What draft pick value do people put on Jimmy G for a 1 QB league 12 teamer? 

Trying to trade for him in my league and the only thing I have to offer is lots of draft picks. I have several potential high end 1s, one low end 1, and 2 potential high end 2s. 


I don't want to offer something offensively terrible, or even screw my buddy out on as his owner is a close friend of mine, but just trying to figure out what a fair deal is. QBs seem to be kind of worthless in a 12 team 1 QB league, so I might be better off not even offering anything, but thought I'd check on value in here first 

High end 2nd imo.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NeverEnough said:

A 2nd rounder tops

 

1 minute ago, fruity pebbles said:

High end 2nd imo.

Thanks. Offered what is likely to be 2.1 or 2.2. Figured it was enough. I might sit tight and just grab a rookie though as there are 2-3 good ones in 19. But I feel like JG could be top 5 talent 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

But I feel like JG could be top 5 talent 

The problem is that a lot of people feel that way, which makes it extremely unlikely that anything but a mid/high first will convince them to move him.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Yeah I've tried to buy JG in a couple spots but people wanted an early to mid 1st and I couldn't do it. 

It's sort of weird how the dynasty guys value him so highly but not-so-much in redraft.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Garoppolo is tricky.  I feel like sellers want a first, and buyers only want to pay a 2nd. 

I think the market has settled on a 1st for the most part but I think that's probably a bit much for him even though I love the talent.  He just doesn't have those middle of the road rushing numbers like Luck and Rodgers have to really push them into that top tier.  With essentially no rushing stats he basically has to be Brady/Peyton to be a top 3 fantasy QB and I don't think it's likely he ends up on that level.

I think a realistic upside for him is Matt Stafford, with the rare top 5 season alongside a bunch of seasons in the 6-10 range for fantasy points.  Now a 26 year old version of Stafford certainly has some value, but again I think we're talking upside here and there is still a big risk that he's another one of those QBs that flashes early but defenses eventually figure out.

In a league where I had him alongside Wentz/Luck this offseason I traded away JG+2.01 for 2019 1st + 2.06 and I was happy with that return, and that was before any good news came out about Luck/Wentz's recoveries.

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

It's sort of weird how the dynasty guys value him so highly but not-so-much in redraft.

Could be age based in Dyno, IF he were to end up being elite, he would ideally be elite for like 8 more years. In redraft, 1 qb leagues, its just too easy to stream Id imagine, compared to what his cost would be vs getting like 2 of Ryan and Dalton or something along those lines

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

Could be age based in Dyno, IF he were to end up being elite, he would ideally be elite for like 8 more years. In redraft, 1 qb leagues, its just too easy to stream Id imagine, compared to what his cost would be vs getting like 2 of Ryan and Dalton or something along those lines

yeah, idk. maybe just me, but I don't see a difference between 30 yo stafford or dalton and 26 yo garoppolo, with respect to age at least.

Edited by cloppbeast
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, cloppbeast said:

yeah, idk. maybe just me, but I don't see a difference between 30 yo stafford or dalton and 26 yo garoppolo

Well for dyno, i could see the appeal of a younger version of stafford if it wasnt cost prohibitive. I think Dalton sucks personally, and is not of the caliber of either of the other two. But is totally streamable and a good match up based start in some cases. He does get to play Cle 2x a year.

I think stafford is the guy to own right now in most cases. He will be cheaper than JG, and has proven to be a solid FF QB, even if sometimes it was just volume based.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't make the offer, but I was told in negotiations earlier this year that the Barkley owner wouldn't take Evans and Hunt together. He said he is an Evans fan, too. IDK. He offered me David Johnson for Hunt last year and I turned him down. This was after DJ was hurt, and I didn't think I could survive the season without Hunt. It's a best ball elimination league. We started with 24 teams and are at 20 now. 2 copies of each player. Anyway I would have been eliminated if I'd made that deal. I was strong everywhere except RB, though I like my backfield much better now. Anyway, this Barkley owner apparently likes Hunt and Evans a lot but said that wouldn't be enough. So add that to the annals of Barkley rookie hype values. I was not able to acquire a single share of him anywhere. 

Edited by barackdhouse
Link to post
Share on other sites

Thoughts on the value of likely future NFL starting QBs in a Superflex league?

Specifically, thinking about Bridgewater and Brissett.  They'd be relatively worthless in a start 1 QB league, but I'm of the opinion that both are very likely to find their way into a starting role and can be a solid #2 QB.  Assuming he's healthy, Bridgewater maybe early this year, maybe via a trade, or maybe next year.  And Brissett I believe is signed through 2019, but if Luck proves to be healthy, the Colts will almost have to cash in on him before then.  As a 22 year old, he did well for the Colts last year considering he didn't even land there until right before the season.

Any thoughts or recent deals involving guys like them in a Superflex league?

Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I didn't make the offer, but I was told in negotiations earlier this year that the Barkley owner wouldn't take Evans and Hunt together. He said he is an Evans fan, too. IDK. He offered me David Johnson for Hunt last year and I turned him down. This was after DJ was hurt, and I didn't think I could survive the season without Hunt. It's a best ball elimination league. We started with 24 teams and are at 20 now. 2 copies of each player. Anyway I would have been eliminated if I'd made that deal. I was strong everywhere except RB, though I like my backfield much better now. Anyway, this Barkley owner apparently likes Hunt and Evans a lot but said that wouldn't be enough. So add that to the annals of Barkley rookie hype values. I was not able to acquire a single share of him anywhere. 

Not that you asked, but I would take Evans and Hunt for SB.

While I love SB as a prospect, he is overvalued. 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/30/2018 at 3:21 PM, cloppbeast said:

It's sort of weird how the dynasty guys value him so highly but not-so-much in redraft.

 

9 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

yeah, idk. maybe just me, but I don't see a difference between 30 yo stafford or dalton and 26 yo garoppolo, with respect to age at least.

It's not just the age.  It's the age plus the unknown ceiling.  What if JG is the next 400 point QB?  We know what Stafford is, he's a low-mid QB1 and he's not giving you a positional advantage.  JG could, he's even given a peek at it.  It's unlikely he can sustain it, but we know Stafford can't.

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

It's not just the age.  It's the age plus the unknown ceiling.  What if JG is the next 400 point QB?  We know what Stafford is, he's a low-mid QB1 and he's not giving you a positional advantage.  JG could, he's even given a peek at it.  It's unlikely he can sustain it, but we know Stafford can't.

That's the optimists point of view for JG. A realist will notice an unknown floor accompanies an unknown cieling. Playing the odds, the chances he is Joe Flacco or Eli Manning are better than he's Aaron Rodgers.

For Stafford, we know his floor but we may not have seen his ceiling yet (besides his first full season). Many quarterbacks don't put up their best stats until around 30, ie Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. And if Stafford is what he is, then fine. You could do worse. 

This is a case of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Edited by cloppbeast
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Price check on McKinnon in PPR. I imagine he has a wide price range. What's his value wrt rookie picks? Generic future first, or the 1.6 this year? 

What about wrt other running backs? I offered him and a future third for Howard and was rejected, no counter. I hope I didn't insult my league-mate. 

Edited by cloppbeast
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Price check on McKinnon in PPR. I imagine he has a wide price range. What's his value wrt rookie picks? Generic future first, or the 1.6 this year? 

What about wrt other running backs? I offered him and a future third for Howard and was rejected, no counter. I hope I didn't insult my league-mate. 

I paid a 1.6 for him a couple months ago. I'm a believer. I had a couple other early picks and decided to spend one of them on a non-rookie. I've taken him in the mid 2nd in a couple of redrafts. Just find an owner like me, I guess.  But there are a ton of people that are down on him, so I'm sure the value to them is much, much lower.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎7‎/‎31‎/‎2018 at 5:48 PM, mozzy84 said:

Barkely - Offered OBJ/L. Miller/1.12 - denied

Pass. Miller is toast after this year. You would have to hit a gem at 1.12. In 2 years, Barkley will out score all 3 combined if you miss at 1.12. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...