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RB Ronald Jones, Cowboys (1 Viewer)

FreeBaGeL said:
Are you a Bucs fan?  You seem to be inordinately high on a lot of these guys.  Particularly Brake and a 31 year old DJax.

Just picking one of those above teams out at random.

OBJ >> Evans
Shepard = DJax
Engram = Brate/Howard
Barkley >> RoJo
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Do you really think Engram is equal to both brate and Howard combined? 

I'd disagree on OBJ being that much better than Evans too, especially if character/ personality issues matter at all. 

Brake :lol:     ;)

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Are you a Bucs fan?  You seem to be inordinately high on a lot of these guys.  Particularly Brake and a 31 year old DJax.

Just picking one of those above teams out at random.

OBJ >> Evans
Shepard = DJax
Engram = Brate/Howard
Barkley >> RoJo
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I am.

One Engram is equal to Brate and Howard?  Not sure that makes much sense.  And we don't really know that Barkley is better than Jones at this point.  OBJ and Evans are pretty equal depending on what you want to look at.  Sterling Shepherd can't hold DeSean's jock. 

Anyway.  I apologize for taking the thread off track.

 
cloppbeast said:
Is there much correlation between receiving threats and running back production? It sounds like a reason for an OC to throw it down field instead of running or passing to a back.
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Correlation? As in a statistical study showing that relationship?I don't know. Probably not.

From a defensive perspective if the receiving threats are weak then they can match up with those players one on one leading to more defenders near the LOS and focused on stopping the run. 

To give an example Adrian Peterson with Christian Ponder and Cordarrralle Patterson the defense was MUCH more focused on stopping the run than there was with Favre, Harvin and Rice. The yards Peterson earned were much more difficult to come by without a good passing threat to make the defense play more balanced against them.

However the flip side of this is Peterson got the ball a lot more due to the lack of other options. The more good players a team has, the more the ball will be spread around.

The better the offense the more likely the RB is to score TDs. In 2012 Petersons best season he touched the ball 388 times and scored 13 TD or .033 TD per touch. In 2009 with Favre Harvin and RIce Peterson touched the ball 357 times and scored 18 TD or .05 TD per touch.

As far as the Bucs situation I think defenses will have to play more balanced and can't cheat against the running back as much as they will against other teams who do not have the same passing threats.

The Bucs defense on the other hand may still find themselves in a lot of chase situations because they can't seem to cover well enough to prevent that. They were the worst defense against the pass in 2017

Watching Jones in USC it seems pretty clear their main focus was to stop Ronald Jones. The coaching staff would elect to have Jones stay in for pass protection because their offensive line wasn't good enough to get that done when they needed to throw downfield. Maybe something similar happens with Jones in NFL as far as his opportunities as a receiver. His blocking ability is an asset very valuable to an NFL team but might be a drawback for his value for fantasy.

 
Biabreakable said:
Watching Jones in USC it seems pretty clear their main focus was to stop Ronald Jones. The coaching staff would elect to have Jones stay in for pass protection because their offensive line wasn't good enough to get that done when they needed to throw downfield. Maybe something similar happens with Jones in NFL as far as his opportunities as a receiver. His blocking ability is an asset very valuable to an NFL team but might be a drawback for his value for fantasy.
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If the OC is dumb. A good pass blocking back should set up screen passes. 

 
cloppbeast said:
If the OC is dumb. A good pass blocking back should set up screen passes. 
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That is what I expect as well, just pointing out how that could go the other way as well.

Winston is a very aggressive QB who likes to push the ball downfield. As Grahm points out a lot of the time where he passes to a RB is on designed plays such as screens. Given the choice he is kind of like Barkley in that he would prefer to push the ball downfield instead of check it down.

 
cloppbeast said:
I wouldn't think there would be much data. Just spit-balling, or implyng it makes much difference.
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There is more than enough data.

Just not sure how to set up the experiment at the moment. There are a lot of different parts to consider here to try to prove or disprove a pretty simple idea that a team with a better offense is good for RB production compared to one that is worse. I do know there are tons of exceptions to this idea, which to me is just common sense. The Peterson example is one of those exceptions and there are lots of other examples of a poor NFL offense still proving good numbers for their RB. So the opposite of this idea is also true.

I think if a clear correlation could be drawn between a good offense being a plus for a RB, that someone would have done that already and it might be common knowledge right now. It has likely been studied and abandoned because the results are inconclusive. Every team is different.

 
Biabreakable said:
There is more than enough data.

Just not sure how to set up the experiment at the moment. There are a lot of different parts to consider here to try to prove or disprove a pretty simple idea that a team with a better offense is good for RB production compared to one that is worse. I do know there are tons of exceptions to this idea, which to me is just common sense. The Peterson example is one of those exceptions and there are lots of other examples of a poor NFL offense still proving good numbers for their RB. So the opposite of this idea is also true.

I think if a clear correlation could be drawn between a good offense being a plus for a RB, that someone would have done that already and it might be common knowledge right now. It has likely been studied and abandoned because the results are inconclusive. Every team is different.
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There's probably enough data for a 60% confidence interval, if even the slightest correlation exists, which I doubt. Using reason, one can see there's good and bad in both situations. I personally will not factor a team's wide receivers in valuing a running back. 

As for Ronald Jones II, who goes to a team with decent offensive lineman and nothing else at running back, you have to love this situation. Jameis Winston's reluctance to check down makes about the only draw back. So as long as you like the talent, (I do) Jones II will make a 1.02 decision easy. 

 
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Video, Dirk Koetter on draft

In case no one saw this it's from last week. At around 57 second mark he is asked about Ronald Jones. At around the 3:25 mark he responds to question about Jones receiving ability.

As with most draft picks he's mainly discussing Rojo's positives but if you are hoping for that kind of talk you hear coming out of places like Seattle with Penny you'll be disappointed. No "this was the guy we wanted" or "this is a three down RB" kind of talk.

 
menobrown said:
Video, Dirk Koetter on draft

In case no one saw this it's from last week. At around 57 second mark he is asked about Ronald Jones. At around the 3:25 mark he responds to question about Jones receiving ability.

As with most draft picks he's mainly discussing Rojo's positives but if you are hoping for that kind of talk you hear coming out of places like Seattle with Penny you'll be disappointed. No "this was the guy we wanted" or "this is a three down RB" kind of talk.
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Koetter admits USC didn't ask Jones II to run a lot of routes, but also that was across the board with this draft class. He said Jones II's receiving game needs improvement. It might not matter much. The Bucs don't pass to their running backs very often anyway, to which Jameis Winston contributes by wanting to go downfield. Jones II might not have much added value in PPR, even if he's a 3 down back; but I'd count on some screen passes and for him to make the most of them.

 
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cloppbeast said:
There's probably enough data for a 60% confidence interval, if even the slightest correlation exists, which I doubt. Using reason, one can see there's good and bad in both situations. I personally will not factor a team's wide receivers in valuing a running back. 

As for Ronald Jones II, who goes to a team with decent offensive lineman and nothing else at running back, you have to love this situation. Jameis Winston's reluctance to check down makes about the only draw back. So as long as you like the talent, (I do) Jones II will make a 1.02 decision easy. 
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I would still take Guice over Jones.

 
Biabreakable said:
I would still take Guice over Jones.
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Because you think Guice is better than Jones, so much better that he can overcome a worse situation: more competition, an OC who doesn't call a lot of running plays, and a decent pass catching back in Chris Thompson. 

 
cloppbeast said:
Because you think Guice is better than Jones, so much better that he can overcome a worse situation: more competition, an OC who doesn't call a lot of running plays, and a decent pass catching back in Chris Thompson. 
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Yes I think Guice is better than Jones. It might be close but I know Guice is going to be great and his skillet translates to the NFL regardless of coaching. I do have some questions about Guice as a receiver as well. I've seen some drops. I don't like how long he takes to release out into a route when he should realize a blitzer is not coming. But it is hard as hell to get any kind of read on his abilities as a receiver with LSU. Two of his receptions that stand out in my memory were shovel passes, he runs so well, there is some disguise involved, but this play is basically a long hand off. The Bears do this some times.

Why do you think Washington is a worse situation than Tampa Bay? Their offensive line had a ton of injuries last season. I still think they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Alex Smith with his ability to run as well helps things. I expect them to run the ball a ton, that is kind of why they drafted Guice.

Gruden has run the ball a ton when he had a good RB to work with. I was very high on Perine last season due to the favorable situation for a RB. If there were not so many injuries to key offensive linemen Perine likely could have done better. Guice is a much better RB than Perine. He is a better RB than any Gruden has worked with. I think that will change things.

You make a good point about MCVey not running the ball as much as Gruden did as an offensive coordinator with the Bengals, but perhaps how much he Bengals ran the ball had more to do with the head coach. It is up to Gruden. The coaching staff is hopefully aligned with their plan and how Guice fits in to that. The current offensive coordinator Matt Cavenaugh isn't against the running the ball at all. He was the OC for the Ravens for 6 years and they ran the ball plenty, then with Jets as well. The offensive line had a lot of injuries and the RB they had were not very good, no offense intended to Chris Thompson who is a good RB, but he has a lot of trouble staying healthy. He only played 9 games last season. He is a very good receiver and they likely used him a bit too much because the other skill players were either hurt or not doing much. It was kind of a mess.

As far as I know Washingtons offensive linemen are coming back healthy. So things should be pretty different if that is the case. They need to run the ball and help out their defense. The Guice pick just tells me that this is part of their plan and what they want to do.

 
The case for the #2 rb this year is deep. You could argue that guice and jones may not be a part of the pass game, neither caught a lot and both teams have a pass catching back, so penny/Michel have a better shot at 3 down work. You may think chubb is as good as gurley. It will be fun to see how it shakes out- last year it seems every back except Perine panned out in rd 1, or at least they showed value/hope. 

 
Biabreakable said:
Yes I think Guice is better than Jones. It might be close but I know Guice is going to be great and his skillet translates to the NFL regardless of coaching. I do have some questions about Guice as a receiver as well. I've seen some drops. I don't like how long he takes to release out into a route when he should realize a blitzer is not coming. But it is hard as hell to get any kind of read on his abilities as a receiver with LSU. Two of his receptions that stand out in my memory were shovel passes, he runs so well, there is some disguise involved, but this play is basically a long hand off. The Bears do this some times.

Why do you think Washington is a worse situation than Tampa Bay? Their offensive line had a ton of injuries last season. I still think they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Alex Smith with his ability to run as well helps things. I expect them to run the ball a ton, that is kind of why they drafted Guice.

Gruden has run the ball a ton when he had a good RB to work with. I was very high on Perine last season due to the favorable situation for a RB. If there were not so many injuries to key offensive linemen Perine likely could have done better. Guice is a much better RB than Perine. He is a better RB than any Gruden has worked with. I think that will change things.

You make a good point about MCVey not running the ball as much as Gruden did as an offensive coordinator with the Bengals, but perhaps how much he Bengals ran the ball had more to do with the head coach. It is up to Gruden. The coaching staff is hopefully aligned with their plan and how Guice fits in to that. The current offensive coordinator Matt Cavenaugh isn't against the running the ball at all. He was the OC for the Ravens for 6 years and they ran the ball plenty, then with Jets as well. The offensive line had a lot of injuries and the RB they had were not very good, no offense intended to Chris Thompson who is a good RB, but he has a lot of trouble staying healthy. He only played 9 games last season. He is a very good receiver and they likely used him a bit too much because the other skill players were either hurt or not doing much. It was kind of a mess.

As far as I know Washingtons offensive linemen are coming back healthy. So things should be pretty different if that is the case. They need to run the ball and help out their defense. The Guice pick just tells me that this is part of their plan and what they want to do.
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I can't deny Guice is pretty good. But he has some competition In Washington. You admitted already to liking Perine, Fat Rob is no slouch, and Chris Thompson will be on the field for passing plays. Guice should get most of the carries, but there's a chance it's a RBBC, and he will get spelled on passing plays. Oh and his team doesn't run the ball (sorry, Gruden doesn't run the ball). 

Jones II doesn't have anybody standing in his way. None of Peyton Barber, Jacquizz Rodgers, or Charles Sims will keep many running backs off the field. Being that he is good at about everything a running back needs to do, Jones II should be in on most plays. I like his talent (more than Guice too) enough to maybe sow up a role as a 3 down back for the foreseeable future. A lot would have to happen for Guice to get such opportunity, one in which Jones II walks into.

 
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cloppbeast said:
I can't deny Guice is pretty good. But he has some competition In Washington. You admitted already to liking Perine, Fat Rob is no slouch, and Chris Thompson will be on the field for passing plays. Guice should get most of the carries, but there's a chance it's a RBBC, and he will get spelled on passing plays. Oh and his team doesn't run the ball (sorry, Gruden doesn't run the ball). 

Jones II doesn't have anybody standing in his way. None of Peyton Barber, Jacquizz Rodgers, or Charles Sims will keep many running backs off the field. Being that he is good at about everything a running back needs to do, Jones II should be in on most plays. I like his talent (more than Guice too) enough to maybe sow up a role as a 3 down back for the foreseeable future. A lot would have to happen for Guice to get such opportunity, one in which Jones II walks into.
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But will Jones be able to pass block at the pro level? We'll see.

 
cloppbeast said:
Absolutely. He's damn good at it.
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I think every back has to prove it in the nfl even if they could do it in college. I think ‘quiz or sims could see 3rd down action, but he has a clear 2 down role with the upside for more. Guice is in a mixon type situation, and that’s kind of what I’m expecting. 

 
cloppbeast said:
I can't deny Guice is pretty good. But he has some competition In Washington. You admitted already to liking Perine, Fat Rob is no slouch, and Chris Thompson will be on the field for passing plays.
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The Bucs have Peyton Barber, Quizz Rodgers and Charles Simms who are no better/worse than the Skins trio - and don't sell Fat Rob short he's a tremendous slouch. Chris Thompson is very good at what he does but the Skins go out of their way to limit his role.

 
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Snorkelson said:
The case for the #2 rb this year is deep. You could argue that guice and jones may not be a part of the pass game, neither caught a lot and both teams have a pass catching back, so penny/Michel have a better shot at 3 down work. You may think chubb is as good as gurley. It will be fun to see how it shakes out- last year it seems every back except Perine panned out in rd 1, or at least they showed value/hope. 
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Drafted first?  Penny

No off field issues? Penny, Rojo 

Proven receiving ability? Penny

Proven pass blocking ability? Guice

Ran a 4.4? Penny

Over 220? Penny, guice

Coach says he'll get three down work? Penny

Aside from those things I can see why you'd take one of the other guys over penny

 
cloppbeast said:
I can't deny Guice is pretty good. But he has some competition In Washington. You admitted already to liking Perine, Fat Rob is no slouch, and Chris Thompson will be on the field for passing plays. Guice should get most of the carries, but there's a chance it's a RBBC, and he will get spelled on passing plays. Oh and his team doesn't run the ball (sorry, Gruden doesn't run the ball). 

Jones II doesn't have anybody standing in his way. None of Peyton Barber, Jacquizz Rodgers, or Charles Sims will keep many running backs off the field. Being that he is good at about everything a running back needs to do, Jones II should be in on most plays. I like his talent (more than Guice too) enough to maybe sow up a role as a 3 down back for the foreseeable future. A lot would have to happen for Guice to get such opportunity, one in which Jones II walks into.
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You missed the point about Perine. I really like the situation in Washington for any RB because of the offensive line. Trent Williams and many other starters on the offensive line were injured last season, So what they did is not a reflection of what the offense is capable of. Fat Rob is okay but nothing special at RB. The offense is good enough to make marginal talents better. Guice isn't a marginal talent and he will win the running back by competition against these RB pretty easily.

As far as your statement about Gruden not running the ball there is just nothing true about that statement. Very high rushing attempts for his lead RB such as Alfred Morris and going back to when he was OC for the Bengals they ran the ball with Cedric Benson a ton (resurrecting his career briefly) and the the law firm after him. The rushing attempts were still high when they were split between BJGE and Bernard, and then later with Morris and Jones. Gruden was trying to upgrade the position and the time share was a result of that. 

Take a look at the offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaughs career.

Lat season was by far the worst running game that Cavanaugh has been a coordinator of. As I already pointed out, this was due to the many injuries to starting offensive linemen, they also had key receiving options injured as well. In terms of rushing attempts with Cavanaugh 18th was the worst finish. That is middle of the pack. His offenses have run the ball more than the average number of times 7 out of 9 of his seasons as an offensive coordinator. 78% of the time.

I completely agree that Jones should beat out his competition for playing time easily, but the same thing applies to Guice as well. I think if you step back a minute and stop trying to win this argument, you will see that.

I have Guice 2nd and Jones 3rd in my rookie rankings. So its not like I don't like Jones and really this could go either way. I trust Guices game translating to the next level a bit more though and he grades out higher than Jones does in my charting. Also Washingtons offensive line is better than Tampa Bays.

 
Position battles: Five starting jobs up for grabs for Bucs

Excerpt:

RUNNING BACK: Third-year pro Peyton Barber, barely used until the final month of last season, finished strong enough to lead the Bucs in rushing. Tampa Bay didn't add any new backs in free agency, but used the first of its three second-round picks on USC's Ronald Jones, who brings big-play potential to the running game.

Barber and Jones will likely share the load at the start of the season — the battle will be how quickly Jones can earn the confidence and trust of Bucs coaches in key skills like pass protection. The rookie is competing with three returning backs (Barber, Jacquizz Rodgers, Charles Sims) who have at least two years in Dirk Koetter's offense, so he'll need to learn his playbook quickly to build on his role going into the season.
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They ran McNichols out of town in what, 4 months? because he couldn't figure out the playbook?  Bigger investment in Jones obviously but dude's gotta learn.

 
Hankmoody said:
They ran McNichols out of town in what, 4 months? because he couldn't figure out the playbook?  Bigger investment in Jones obviously but dude's gotta learn.
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grateful zed strategy of talking a guy down?

McNichols wasn't very good although I do know some folks thought he was.

 
Jones, who only notched 32 receptions during his college career at USC, is nevertheless expected to have a pass-catching role during his rookie season, Scott Smith of the team's official site reports. "We certainly hope that he's going to be a three-down back and I certainly envision him [being one]," said Buccaneers running backs coach Tim Spencer. "Obviously, he's got some work to do in terms of being able to run certain pass routes, motioning around, catching the ball, but he can pick up the blitzes and things like that."
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https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/buccaneers-ronald-jones-ii-envisioned-as-three-down-back/

 
:blackdot: Got him in one of my dynasties, hoping he's valuable from the get go.  I'm not holding my breath.

 
kutta said:
They have Barkley ranked as the 50th overall dynasty player ?
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Borden said:
Why?
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Just saw this and looks like it's because it's a composite ranking and one guy who has not done rankings since March looks like he did not include rookies to that threw his and all other rookies average off.

Still the two people on that site that ranked him post draft put him at 10 and 13. Looks like from their rankings they are still in zero RB mode.

 
menobrown said:
Just saw this and looks like it's because it's a composite ranking and one guy who has not done rankings since March looks like he did not include rookies to that threw his and all other rookies average off.

Still the two people on that site that ranked him post draft put him at 10 and 13. Looks like from their rankings they are still in zero RB mode.
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When you go to just rookies (RK), the one person has him at 18. The date on the list is 5/9 so May 9th. I clicked on Jones and it didn’t say anything from the person who has him ranked 18 for rookies. The 2 other people have him at #4 and #10. In the normal RB rankings that one person has Jones behind CJA, Marlon Mark and Theo Riddick. 

 
Up-to-Date Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings for 2018.

Sorted by position and Rookies and ranked by some of the finest Dynasty Football Minds in the world – yes we said it….these are the most accurate fantasy football dynasty rankings in the world!
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Two out of four of their rankers haven't updated their lists since the draft.

Clearly serious bidness here.  :yawn:

 
kutta said:
They have Barkley ranked as the 50th overall dynasty player ?
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That's because 1 guy didn't rank rookies.  He has him at 10 and another guy at 13 so the guy without ranking must default to 150 or something.

Just look at the host rankings he does have Barkley 10

 
Hankmoody said:
So it's a clown show.
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Actually I been listen to these guys for years they are pretty good.  The host is the rankings I was talking about not any of the other guys who may not have updated their rankings.  This guy has been pretty spot on for busts in the past few years so it worries me he just doesn't think Jones is a good football player.

 
Dez said:
Actually I been listen to these guys for years they are pretty good.  The host is the rankings I was talking about not any of the other guys who may not have updated their rankings.  This guy has been pretty spot on for busts in the past few years so it worries me he just doesn't think Jones is a good football player.
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Ok.

Why does he think Jones is a bad football player?

That would be useful to know and could further this conversation. Maybe he has seen things I and others have missed.

 
Biabreakable said:
Ok.

Why does he think Jones is a bad football player?

That would be useful to know and could further this conversation. Maybe he has seen things I and others have missed.
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Seriously. Without backing it up it just sounds like he ranked him like crap because he wanted people to talk about it, like we're doing.

 
Dez said:
Actually I been listen to these guys for years they are pretty good.  The host is the rankings I was talking about not any of the other guys who may not have updated their rankings.  This guy has been pretty spot on for busts in the past few years so it worries me he just doesn't think Jones is a good football player.
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What were his other bust picks?

 
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