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RB James Robinson, NE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JFS171
- Start date
Apple Juice
Footballguy
I never liked Urban, then kind of started to when I listened to him talk as a commentator. Obviously he's a smart dude and had a system that worked at the college level.
So far, with his signings and draft picks and even going back to hiring that psycho conditioning coach from Iowa, to me, this seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Expect the next coaching search to be for someone who can "tap into Lawrence's full potential" and "run a real NFL offense."
So far, with his signings and draft picks and even going back to hiring that psycho conditioning coach from Iowa, to me, this seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Expect the next coaching search to be for someone who can "tap into Lawrence's full potential" and "run a real NFL offense."
I don't want to get off track but I don't see it this way. I think some teams want different things from RB's but if you look at past 3 years the top drafted RB's are mainly singles and doubles type RB's. Jacobs, CEH and Najee. Two of RB's who got big extensions last year, Dalvin and Kamara, are mainly singles and doubles type RB's.
I need a fact checker on these two things I"m about to say. I believe I read something around midpoint of last year that Robinson was among the league leaders for runs that produce positive yardage. I may be wrong on this as I have no way of looking up but if so this kind of consistent production is exactly what some teams value.
So not to get long winded on I just think some teams prefer different things from RB's. Robinson just happens to be on a team that is crazy about speed and explosive plays. Which is why I advocate hanging onto him because when a player and scheme are not a fit but the player is valued by other teams is what I consider a formula for a trade. Way I see it either Robinson really impresses the new staff and carves out some type of Saints Ingram role or he'll be on a new team before end of his contract.
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rockaction
Footballguy
That's certainly one way to look at it. I won't begrudge that too much. I will say that I think that Jacobs's singles and doubles have already caught up with him in LV. Drake is now there at the wooing of the coaching staff and is the recipient of quite the expensive two-year deal for a 28 year-old RB, a guy who had the second-fastest timed run last year at over 22 MPH and is looming as a carry stealer. So there's a bit of a ***** in the armor to that argument, maybe. With Harris I think the Steelers see his all-around game and are willing to sacrifice home run speed for catching ability, but that's also just a way of looking at it, and the fact is that Najee lacks pro-style breakaway speed, so you're correct about both he and Jacobs and draft capital.
And I know you'd like a fact-checker because I also saw those tweets, or stats similar. We probably follow the same people. I think Robinson was 2nd or 3rd though in runs over ten yards. I do not know why he finished 68th in explosive runs per my post, nor am I positive in retrospect regarding what defines "explosive" (I'm guessing over twenty yards, which is what PFF or 538/ESPN uses, I think).
So yeah, there's a possibility he winds up traded. I see no reason he can't be a productive NFL back. The reason I traded him from my fantasy team a while back, and you and I talked about this up to and including who was the only back that we saw fit to replace him, was because of Urban Meyer and Urban Meyer only. Nothing Robinson did, aside from having a lack of breakaway speed, really caught my eye as something the Jags should be looking at replacing with a first-round pick. It was simply not trusting a coach and then, after I dealt him, seeing what the front office had said immediately upon their first take on things. I know you remember the "explosive" comment about their backfield because we the ones in that thread that were given pause by it. So that's really the reason I personally traded him, and had an inkling after, and it came to fruition during the draft. C'ést la vie.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
No, unfortunately. I came across the same stat in some tweets but it wasn't in regards to Robinson. From fantasydata.com here are the top 10 RBs last year in #breakaway runs (+15 yards):
Henry 21
Taylor 14
Chubb 14
Kamara 11
Dobbins 11
Cook 10
Jacobs 9
Gordon 9
David Johnson 9
Conner 9
Edwards 9
James Robinson had 7.
But I contend that teams were stacking the box against the Jags last year and with poor QB play he still produced. Of course he was volume dependent. But the efficiency should be expected to go way up this year, or it should have before they drafted ETN. It should still go up but I think it is pretty much moot now.
I would love to see Julio for Robinson. That is my pipe dream.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
There is no way he was 2nd or 3rd in that category. I love the guy and am one of his biggest defenders. If so then they were all like 10-14 yards. But in all seriousness I am *always* curious to see if different sources match up. We have seen soooooo many instances of sloppy or flat out erroneous data reporting.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
This I don't know but wouldn't be surprised. I am curious to see the results, though. Just for nerd sake. I don't know where to look for this one.
Not to quibble on a small point and remains what I wrote was incorrect but I manually counted up 9 runs for him over 15 yards. He had runs of 15,15, 17, 18, 20, 22, 27, 39 and 47.
And I'd be freaking elated to see a Julio for Robinson trade for both of them but especially Robinson.
ETA-they must only count runs over 15 yards. Again, all very minor.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
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I'm definitely a lot lower on Etienne if he's considered one of the best prospects of the last 20 years. I think most drafts(including this one) have 1-2 better RBs than him. I see a guy who is likely a career RBBC back, who is boom/bust and big play dependent.
We are not a hit away from a Haskins led offense. Haskins will be lucky to make the team, Mason Rudolph is clearly the #2, and wasn't anywhere near as bad as people remember him being. He was probably as good as Big Ben was down the stretch in 2020. The Steelers should have a better offense than the Jaguars in 2021 at least.
Looking at the RB1 seasons over the last 5 years and the offenses they came from:
2020: Henry(great offense) Kamara(great offense) Cook(good offense) Taylor(good offense) A.Jones(great offense) Montgomery(bad offense) J.Robinson(awful offense) Jacobs(good offense) Chubb(ok offense) Hunt(ok offense) Elliott(ok offense) Drake(ok offense)
2019: CMC(bad offense) Henry(good offense) A.Jones(ok offense) Elliott(great offense) Cook(good offense) Chubb(bad offense) Ekeler(bad offense) Ingram(great offense) Carson(good offense) Barkley(bad offense) Mixon(awful offense) Gurley(good offense)
2018: Gurley(great offense) Barkley(ok offense) CMC(ok offense) Kamara(great offense) Elliott(bad offense) Gordon(good offense) Conner(good offense) Hunt(great offense) Mixon(ok offense) D.Johnson(historically bad offense) White(great offense) Lindsay(bad offense)
2017: Gurley(great offense) Bell(good offense) Hunt(great offense) Kamara(great offense) Gordon(ok offense) Ingram(great offense) McCoy(bad offense) Fournette(great offense) Elliott(ok offense) Howard(awful offense) Hyde(bad offense) D.Lewis(great offense)
2016: D.Johnson(great offense) Elliott(great offense) McCoy(good offense) Bell(good offense) D.Murray(ok offense) Freeman(great offense) Blount(great offense) Gordon(good offense) Howard(awful offense) Ingram(great offense) Ajayi(ok offense) Gore(good offense)
This backs up my feeling that being in a good offense helps, but its not a requirement. It can be worked around with either a huge workload, or just an elite talent overcoming situation. Top-3 RB production comes from having at least 2 of the 3.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think what we should do is when we see an interesting player have information disseminated about him on Twitter is to take that Tweet and source it. I think it would help to have a way to either pin the Tweet or copy and paste it to Microsoft Word. I know I personally do not ever comment on Twitter because my handle is easily tied to my name and I want no Twitter record, so that may be problematic, because often they're unsourced stats that a proprietor is giving you.
Take, for instance, the Robinson stat I saw, which I think came from PFF (I'm almost positive). They use their own standards for what constitutes an "explosive run." So you can't really source it because it's often a dissemination of information from their ELITE package at times, which I don't have. I just have EDGE. Many other companies do that, too.
I'm just trying to throw out ways we can better help each other and addressing potential roadblocks is all. I see a lot of Tweets go by during the day that become topics of conversation for the SP and it's impossible to remember them all and their sourcing. I'll try and do better when I see something of interest.
Boston
Footballguy
Great guy to target...his owner is probably spooked by Etienne but I do believe that while he's not gonna have the value he did last last year he will be a very solid piece of a fantasy RB unit and he will always be one injury away from a potential top 10 season...adjust your expectations and go get him!
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Problem is most that owners are not willing to give him cheap, which is what most people would be interested in doing.
Boston
Footballguy
I don't think you will get him cheap but I do think some of his Owners will cash out on him at a very reasonable price.
Different roles on their respective teams but I kind of view him in the same prism I do Kareem Hunt. Fairly young, proven RB1's who are the lesser RB's to own on their own teams but still project as usable mid to low end RB2's who are both an injury away from as you said top 10 potential.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wouldn't give a 1st round pick for him for sure. His owners might bite on a 2nd and probably should if it is projected to be early. Where it gets dicey is when the 2nd is projected to be late. In that case it's probably better for the Robinson owner to hold for now, especially if they are weak at RB. I would think the ETN owner would buy for a mid-2nd, but I could be on drugs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
There is a major debate in my league about Robinson's value.
1. The Robinson owner continues to take umbrage that the best offers they're receiving are 2nd round picks.
2. The Etienne owner believes Robinson will immediately become an afterthought.
I'm not sure what to think, but I probably wouldn't pay more than a 2nd for Robinson because I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle.
This has committee written all over it. From an NFL standpoint, JAX is loaded with a plethora of riches. From a FF standpoint it's a bit of a mess.
1. The Robinson owner continues to take umbrage that the best offers they're receiving are 2nd round picks.
2. The Etienne owner believes Robinson will immediately become an afterthought.
I'm not sure what to think, but I probably wouldn't pay more than a 2nd for Robinson because I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle.
This has committee written all over it. From an NFL standpoint, JAX is loaded with a plethora of riches. From a FF standpoint it's a bit of a mess.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The Robinson owner is trying to get a 1st from the Etienne owner, but the Etienne owner won't even offer a 2nd.
Kind of a messy FF situation for all parties. I completely agree with your assessment. IMO the Etienne owner would be sharp to pick up the handcuff for a 2nd. The rest of the league should likely stay away from that price unless they project it to a late 2nd. Since the Robinson owner isn't likely to accept that, it's probably a hold.
Meanwhile I might see if the Etienne owner wants Hyde.
Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
I gather this is a contrarian viewpoint but I would not accept a 1st for Robinson in my league. He's my RB3 behind Chubb & Dobbins. Even still, I'm not parting with him. I've huge doubts that Etienne will supplant Robinson this season.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
My outlook is that ETN is going to be awesome and I am skeptical of how much Robinson will actually see the ball. I am thinking he gets about 100 touches.
That said I would likely give up a 2nd round pick for Robinson for insurance anyways, so I don't think you are far off here. I think most people who might be interested in buying Robinson value him more than I do.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
See, this is exactly my point in the debate that's happening in my league. The Robinson owner values him very high, and the Etienne owner values him very low. The rest of the league has been throwing out 2nd rounders for him, which the Robinson owner expressed frustration about.
So Robinson is a clear hold for owners, and Etienne owners looking to handcuff (or tandem or however you think it'll shake out) have a very challenging deal ahead of them.
rockaction
Footballguy
He's not worth a first.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I have so much of him and wouldn't take a 2nd or equivalent unless it was in a package of some kind. I took ETN in a few spots but somehow none of them had Robinson. I made one trade during the draft where I had Robinson already and moved CEH for ETN plus a draft bump. But I would *probably* pay a 2nd for Robinson on the other squads with ETN. Except I typically spend all my 2nds during the drafts. I don't typically try to handcuff in dynasty but I like Robinson a lot and think he could be a rare 2nd contract play. Seems so far away from now though.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
100 touches? I'll take the over on that.
I wouldn't consider moving him until I see a couple games. Even if he's a total non-factor he's going to have rnd 2 value for handcuff purposes alone.
You could double that and I'd bet the over knowing only way I lose is if he goes down early.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Gimme the over 100 but under 200. #### still thinking in 16 game terms. Hmmmm.
I would for sure not remotely consider giving up a future #1 for him.
My first thought was to reply saying I don't value him as worth a current first either but I just did a startup with the group from here and I took Robinson as essentially rookie 12 so it feels contradictory for me to say he's not worth ANY current #1.
In a general sense no he's not as sexy as some of those WR's you can grab, but when Sermon and Carter are gone and the RB need is real and you weight that vs adding another WR to what is most teams most surplus position spot I think it's in range of his value depending on what WR's are left and team need. Saying that I just thought about my other current teams and in none of them would I have given up pick 12 for Robinson, but those teams are all deeper at RB then my startup was and still is.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FWIW Mike Clay has Robinson projected for 195 touches with Carlos Hyde seeing 35.
I think these numbers are too high especially the 54 targets 42 receptions he has Robinson getting. Robinson had 5.7 yards per target last season so while a lot of receptions not great efficiency on those.
I am pretty sure that ETN is much better at this than Robinson is and I am more expecting his share of targets to be like 2 per game than 4 per game that Clay has.
When I say about 100 touches I mean a range of something like 80-120
For those saying 200 touches I am curious how many targets and receptions you think that is.
I think these numbers are too high especially the 54 targets 42 receptions he has Robinson getting. Robinson had 5.7 yards per target last season so while a lot of receptions not great efficiency on those.
I am pretty sure that ETN is much better at this than Robinson is and I am more expecting his share of targets to be like 2 per game than 4 per game that Clay has.
When I say about 100 touches I mean a range of something like 80-120
For those saying 200 touches I am curious how many targets and receptions you think that is.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't think he needs an injury to ETN, I think he leads the team in carries and easily.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Do you also have projections for Etienne? Your Robinson stats seem low but curious how you see the whole picture.TS Garp said:
Yes, here's how I see it:
Robinson:
172 carries, 740 yards, 6 touchdowns, 42 targets, 30 receptions, 225 yards, 0 touchdowns
Etienne:
128 carries, 602 yards, 3 touchdowns, 64 targets, 46 receptions, 451 yards, 4 touchdowns
Hyde:
88 carries, 370 yards, 3 touchdowns, 24 targets, 16 receptions, 86 yards, 0 touchdowns
Lawrence:
84 carries, 323 yards, 6 touchdowns
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I appreciate you guys sharing projections.
I tend to agree with MIke Clay in regards to Carlos Hydes workload being small and significantly less than what TS Garp is projecting.
I tend to agree with MIke Clay in regards to Carlos Hydes workload being small and significantly less than what TS Garp is projecting.
It's definitely possible. But remember, it's a 17 week season. Hyde was pretty decent last year and he's an Urban Meyer favorite and will also be reunited with Brian Schottenheimer, so they like him. His contract is not insignificant as backup RB's go (2 years/6M with 1.4M guaranteed), either. I projected him for slightly more than 5 carries per week. Certainly possible he sees less than that but I don't think it's overly optimistic.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Carlos Hyde will be 31 years old this season.
He had 81 rushing attempts and 20 targets for the Seahawks last season. However the majority of those opportunities occurred when Chris Carson was out of the line up and in game 13 vs the Jets in mop up duty.
He had the 2nd most opportunities for the Seahawks but he will be 3rd in the pecking order here.
So i dont think the outlook for his workload should be increasing from what he did last season with us assuming all players are healthy.
35 touches seems more likely to me.
He had 81 rushing attempts and 20 targets for the Seahawks last season. However the majority of those opportunities occurred when Chris Carson was out of the line up and in game 13 vs the Jets in mop up duty.
He had the 2nd most opportunities for the Seahawks but he will be 3rd in the pecking order here.
So i dont think the outlook for his workload should be increasing from what he did last season with us assuming all players are healthy.
35 touches seems more likely to me.
Guessing it's somewhere between our two numbers - maybe 50-60. If Robinson were to miss time, I think Hyde would see a fair amount of time (8-12 carries per week) - I don't think Etienne would completely take over. I think that's one of the reasons they brought in Hyde - because he offers a similar profile/approach to Robinson.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree that Hyde and Robinsons skill sets have some overlap. Neither of them are as explosive as ETN.
The coach is an enigma. Some folks think he is going to be a bad coach in the NFL I don't know what to think about that. I have to see it in action first.
To me playing Carlos Hyde over either ETN or Robinson would be a bad decision and if the coach is playing Hyde because of past loyalties and not playing his better players it would add to the narrative that the coach is bad.
I don't think that is going to happen though because I think the cream rises to the top, even overcoming poor coaching if that is the case and that cream is ETN.
rockaction
Footballguy
Announcer: And there goes Robinson! He's positively lumbering in the open field! Meyer shakes his head with disgust, motions to the bench, and in goes Etienne.
I'm not sure I'm really kidding here. I expect him to get plenty of work, but how many times will he get caught or lumber away in the open field before Meyer has seen enough? It's clear the guy covets speed and big dudes. Robinson has neither. His BMI is fine, and he's thick, but he's no giant or speedster.
I only write this because I was briefly thinking about re-acquiring and then realized I wanted no part of it.
I'm not sure I'm really kidding here. I expect him to get plenty of work, but how many times will he get caught or lumber away in the open field before Meyer has seen enough? It's clear the guy covets speed and big dudes. Robinson has neither. His BMI is fine, and he's thick, but he's no giant or speedster.
I only write this because I was briefly thinking about re-acquiring and then realized I wanted no part of it.
I agree he doesn't fit your description (giant or speedy) but Robinson is very good at getting positive yards and is quick enough for 10-15 yd gains after making the first guy miss. I think he is a perfect compliment to ETN and should (i say should instead of will because you don't know what Meyer will do) have a solid role and get enough touches to be a nice RB2 for fantasy purposes.
