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Dynasty & Redraft: James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville


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2 hours ago, Babooya said:

The Carlos Hyde signing was such a tease. You figure Oscar found his pet backup back from college. The itch was scratched. There were so many other needs in the trenches and defense. There were impact tackles on the board. 

You accept it’s a volatile situation having an UDFA atop the depth chart of a new regime with little motivation to produce fond memories of the priors player evaluation efforts. But it was a historic season, and you’ve locked up 5-7m in excess value per season on his contract. You have 100m+ in excess value with Lawrence’s contact. You can draft and buy the D and compete immediately. Tom Coughlin did it with far less advantage. 
 

JR goes from a community chest card to a chance card. His his trade value will never be above his hold value. He has elite vision and he seems highly driven with good ethic. I think he’ll get better. Baring Etienne being unable to run with power between the tackles, JR is a backup/maybe GL. 
 

also sad for Laviska as it seems he is in for the same fate. Pining for Toney. The writing is on the wall. New regime wants faces of franchise to be new regime players 
 

:sadtrombone:

I fully expect Laviska to be at least the 1B to Chark, and a WR4 with upside.

The Hyde signing never moved the needle to me. They were always going to add a guy in the draft, the hope was it was more like a Gainwell or a Hubbard though. Even with Etienne, I think Robinson is still a heavily involved player. I don't see any reason they can't/won't both hover around 200 touches. RB2/RB3 territory. I could even see it being less of an Ingram/Kamara. and more of a Drake/Edmonds, at least for 2021. 

Robinson probably isn't a bad buy low right now, if people are thinking he's just going to be an afterthought. 

3 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I like the idea of having the RB paired with Trevor Lawrence a lot more than RB tied to, Broken Ben and Drew Lockwater  or whatever is going on in Denver. It's unlikely the Jags become the Saints, but when a high end QB hits that running back tends to become a hot commodity and a lot of data seems to show that while opportunity is really important, so is being tied to a high scoring offense. 

I guess that depends on what you think of Etienne's talent. I personally thought he was the 3rd best RB in the class(I had Williams #1, which looks even less hot) but I think I'm almost certainly passing on RB at the top of the draft. 

I do agree that being on a high scoring offense can help, but its not a requirement. I mean the best RB during the fantasy playoffs last year, short of Kamara, was arguably David Montgomery. 

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I don't understand the blowback on picking up Robinson. Zero risk move. Even if he's a spot start RB3, that's free money. If he is a bum, cut him by October. Zero loss position assuming you have the r

I'm ok thanks but I truly feel bad for Robinson and how they played him. So last night the Jags had 4-5 players at their stadium for a draft party and Robinson was one of them. He's on stage firing up

In Dynasty this kid is like getting a bike for Christmas at age 10...what a gift.

Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, travdogg said:

I guess that depends on what you think of Etienne's talent. I personally thought he was the 3rd best RB in the class(I had Williams #1, which looks even less hot) but I think I'm almost certainly passing on RB at the top of the draft. 

I just don't get what people are missing. ETN is one of the objectively best RB prospects of the millennium. The only blemish is he's a senior but that is by choice not because he wasn't a high end prospect after his junior year. RBs with his size, speed, receiving chops, rushing records, big play ability, performance at a young age and level of competition don't come around very often. 

Quote

I do agree that being on a high scoring offense can help, but its not a requirement. I mean the best RB during the fantasy playoffs last year, short of Kamara, was arguably David Montgomery. 

Look at the bigger picture though and I believe most years the bulk of the RB1 come from better than average offenses. Maybe the rookies the Steelers drafted work out right away and Ben has a bounce back year or they sign Cousins next season but as of now, the Steelers offense has potential to crater. We are a hit away from a Haskins led offense. I know we can say that about a lot of teams but most teams don't have a 39 year old QB with a history of shoulder ailments who seem to regularly take big hits. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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Sorry Robinson owners, but the time to sell him was before the NFL draft.  Now you're only looking at the ETN owner as a possible match and it won't be for a 1st rd. pick any longer.

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If you own Robinson you have to hope for one of those weird multi-car collisions on the formation lap and Robinson is the one that drives away untouched. :P

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I never liked Urban, then kind of started to when I listened to him talk as a commentator. Obviously he's a smart dude and had a system that worked at the college level. 

So far, with his signings and draft picks and even going back to hiring that psycho conditioning coach from Iowa, to me, this seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Expect the next coaching search to be for someone who can "tap into Lawrence's full potential" and "run a real NFL offense."

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17 hours ago, rockaction said:

The main problem with your hypothesis is that teams aren't looking at YPC as much anymore. They're looking at Yards Produced Over Expectation, PFF grades, and explosive runs.

 

I don't want to get off track but I don't see it this way. I think some teams want different things from RB's but if you  look at past 3 years the top drafted RB's are mainly singles and doubles type RB's. Jacobs, CEH and Najee. Two of RB's who got big extensions last year, Dalvin and Kamara, are mainly singles and doubles type RB's.

I need a fact checker on these two things I"m about to say. I believe I read something around midpoint of last year that Robinson was among the league leaders for runs that produce positive yardage.   I may be wrong on this as I have no way of looking up but if so this kind of consistent production is exactly what some teams value.

So not to get long winded on I just think some teams prefer different things from RB's. Robinson just happens to be on a team that is crazy about speed and explosive plays. Which is why I advocate hanging onto him because when a player and scheme are not a fit but the player is valued by other teams is what I consider a formula for a trade. Way I see it either Robinson really impresses the new staff and carves out some type of Saints Ingram role or he'll be on a new team before end of his contract.

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I don't want to get off track but I don't see it this way. I think some teams want different things from RB's but if you  look at past 3 years the top drafted RB's are mainly singles and doubles type RB's. Jacobs, CEH and Najee. Two of RB's who got big extensions last year, Dalvin and Kamara, are mainly singles and doubles type RB's.

I need a fact checker on these two things I"m about to say. I believe I read something around midpoint of last year that Robinson was among the league leaders for runs that produce positive yardage.  I also swear I read something a few days ago and for the life of me I can't remember were I read it to go look it up but it was some tweet saying Robinson led the league in both runs over 10 yards and in runs over 15 yards. 

So not to get long winded on I just think some teams prefer different things from RB's.

That's certainly one way to look at it. I won't begrudge that too much. I will say that I think that Jacobs's singles and doubles have already caught up with him in LV. Drake is now there at the wooing of the coaching staff and is the recipient of quite the expensive two-year deal for a 28 year-old RB, a guy who had the second-fastest timed run last year at over 22 MPH and is looming as a carry stealer. So there's a bit of a chink in the armor to that argument, maybe. With Harris I think the Steelers see his all-around game and are willing to sacrifice home run speed for catching ability, but that's also just a way of looking at it, and the fact is that Najee lacks pro-style breakaway speed, so you're correct about both he and Jacobs and draft capital. 

And I know you'd like a fact-checker because I also saw those tweets, or stats similar. We probably follow the same people. I think Robinson was 2nd or 3rd though in runs over ten yards. I do not know why he finished 68th in explosive runs per my post, nor am I positive in retrospect regarding what defines "explosive" (I'm guessing over twenty yards, which is what PFF or 538/ESPN uses, I think).

So yeah, there's a possibility he winds up traded. I see no reason he can't be a productive NFL back. The reason I traded him from my fantasy team a while back, and you and I talked about this up to and including who was the only back that we saw fit to replace him, was because of Urban Meyer and Urban Meyer only. Nothing Robinson did, aside from having a lack of breakaway speed, really caught my eye as something the Jags should be looking at replacing with a first-round pick. It was simply not trusting a coach and then, after I dealt him, seeing what the front office had said immediately upon their first take on things. I know you remember the "explosive" comment about their backfield because we the ones in that thread that were given pause by it. So that's really the reason I personally traded him, and had an inkling after, and it came to fruition during the draft. C'ést la vie.

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30 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I need a fact checker on these two things I"m about to say. I believe I read something around midpoint of last year that Robinson was among the league leaders for runs that produce positive yardage.  I also swear I read something a few days ago and for the life of me I can't remember were I read it to go look it up but it was some tweet saying Robinson led the league in both runs over 10 yards and in runs over 15 yards.  I may be wrong on both of these as I have no way of looking up but if so this kind of consistent production is exactly what some teams value.

No, unfortunately. I came across the same stat in some tweets but it wasn't in regards to Robinson. From fantasydata.com here are the top 10 RBs last year in #breakaway runs (+15 yards):

Henry 21
Taylor 14
Chubb 14
Kamara 11
Dobbins 11
Cook  10
Jacobs  9
Gordon  9
David Johnson  9
Conner  9
Edwards  9

James Robinson had 7. 

But I contend that teams were stacking the box against the Jags last year and with poor QB play he still produced. Of course he was volume dependent. But the efficiency should be expected to go way up this year, or it should have before they drafted ETN. It should still go up but I think it is pretty much moot now. 

I would love to see Julio for Robinson. That is my pipe dream.
 

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6 minutes ago, rockaction said:

And I know you'd like a fact-checker because I also saw those tweets, or stats similar. We probably follow the same people. I think Robinson was 2nd or 3rd though in runs over ten yards.

There is no way he was 2nd or 3rd in that category. I love the guy and am one of his biggest defenders. If so then they were all like 10-14 yards. But in all seriousness I am *always* curious to see if different sources match up. We have seen soooooo many instances of sloppy or flat out erroneous data reporting.

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44 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I need a fact checker on these two things I"m about to say. I believe I read something around midpoint of last year that Robinson was among the league leaders for runs that produce positive yardage. 

This I don't know but wouldn't be surprised. I am curious to see the results, though. Just for nerd sake. I don't know where to look for this one.

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27 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

No, unfortunately. I came across the same stat in some tweets but it wasn't in regards to Robinson. From fantasydata.com here are the top 10 RBs last year in #breakaway runs (+15 yards):

 

James Robinson had 7. 

 

I would love to see Julio for Robinson. That is my pipe dream.
 

Not to quibble on a small point and remains what I wrote was incorrect  but I manually counted up 9 runs for him over 15 yards.  He had runs of 15,15, 17, 18, 20, 22, 27, 39 and 47.

And I'd be freaking elated to see a Julio for Robinson trade for both of them but especially Robinson.

ETA-they must only count runs over 15 yards. Again, all very minor.

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10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Not to quibble on a small point and remains what I wrote was incorrect  but I manually counted up 9 runs for him over 15 yards.  He had runs of 15,15, 17, 18, 20, 22, 27, 39 and 47.

And I'd be freaking elated to see a Julio for Robinson trade for both of them but especially Robinson.

ETA-they must only count runs over 15 yards. Again, all very minor.

oh gotcha, 15 on the dot isn't quite enough. yeah. 

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4 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I just don't get what people are missing. ETN is one of the objectively best RB prospects of the millennium. The only blemish is he's a senior but that is by choice not because he wasn't a high end prospect after his junior year. RBs with his size, speed, receiving chops, rushing records, big play ability, performance at a young age and level of competition don't come around very often. 

Look at the bigger picture though and I believe most years the bulk of the RB1 come from better than average offenses. Maybe the rookies the Steelers drafted work out right away and Ben has a bounce back year or they sign Cousins next season but as of now, the Steelers offense has potential to crater. We are a hit away from a Haskins led offense. I know we can say that about a lot of teams but most teams don't have a 39 year old QB with a history of shoulder ailments who seem to regularly take big hits. 

I'm definitely a lot lower on Etienne if he's considered one of the best prospects of the last 20 years. I think most drafts(including this one) have 1-2 better RBs than him. I see a guy who is likely a career RBBC back, who is boom/bust and big play dependent. 

We are not a hit away from a Haskins led offense. Haskins will be lucky to make the team, Mason Rudolph is clearly the #2, and wasn't anywhere near as bad as people remember him being. He was probably as good as Big Ben was down the stretch in 2020. The Steelers should have a better offense than the Jaguars in 2021 at least. 

Looking at the RB1 seasons over the last 5 years and the offenses they came from:

2020: Henry(great offense) Kamara(great offense) Cook(good offense) Taylor(good offense) A.Jones(great offense) Montgomery(bad offense) J.Robinson(awful offense) Jacobs(good offense) Chubb(ok offense) Hunt(ok offense) Elliott(ok offense) Drake(ok offense) 

2019: CMC(bad offense) Henry(good offense) A.Jones(ok offense) Elliott(great offense) Cook(good offense) Chubb(bad offense) Ekeler(bad offense) Ingram(great offense) Carson(good offense) Barkley(bad offense) Mixon(awful offense) Gurley(good offense)

2018: Gurley(great offense) Barkley(ok offense) CMC(ok offense) Kamara(great offense) Elliott(bad offense) Gordon(good offense) Conner(good offense) Hunt(great offense) Mixon(ok offense) D.Johnson(historically bad offense) White(great offense) Lindsay(bad offense)

2017: Gurley(great offense) Bell(good offense) Hunt(great offense) Kamara(great offense) Gordon(ok offense) Ingram(great offense) McCoy(bad offense) Fournette(great offense) Elliott(ok offense) Howard(awful offense) Hyde(bad offense) D.Lewis(great offense)

2016: D.Johnson(great offense) Elliott(great offense) McCoy(good offense) Bell(good offense) D.Murray(ok offense) Freeman(great offense) Blount(great offense) Gordon(good offense) Howard(awful offense) Ingram(great offense) Ajayi(ok offense) Gore(good offense)

This backs up my feeling that being in a good offense helps, but its not a requirement. It can be worked around with either a huge workload, or just an elite talent overcoming situation. Top-3 RB production comes from having at least 2 of the 3. 

 

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3 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

There is no way he was 2nd or 3rd in that category. I love the guy and am one of his biggest defenders. If so then they were all like 10-14 yards. But in all seriousness I am *always* curious to see if different sources match up. We have seen soooooo many instances of sloppy or flat out erroneous data reporting.

I think what we should do is when we see an interesting player have information disseminated about him on Twitter is to take that Tweet and source it. I think it would help to have a way to either pin the Tweet or copy and paste it to Microsoft Word. I know I personally do not ever comment on Twitter because my handle is easily tied to my name and I want no Twitter record, so that may be problematic, because often they're unsourced stats that a proprietor is giving you.

Take, for instance, the Robinson stat I saw, which I think came from PFF (I'm almost positive). They use their own standards for what constitutes an "explosive run." So you can't really source it because it's often a dissemination of information from their ELITE package at times, which I don't have. I just have EDGE. Many other companies do that, too.

I'm just trying to throw out ways we can better help each other and addressing potential roadblocks is all. I see a lot of Tweets go by during the day that become topics of conversation for the SP and it's impossible to remember them all and their sourcing. I'll try and do better when I see something of interest.

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Jaguar Reports' John Shipley believes James Robinson will lead Jacksonville's backfield in snaps.

"Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has shown a past tendency to give more of his offense's rushing focus to backs with skill sets similar Robinson in the past," Shipley writes. "Robinson should be expected to be the hammer of the offense, a role that is still supremely important." While that's not an ideal role compared to last year, Robinson could still provide value between the 20s and in goal-line scenarios over first-rounder Travis Etienne, who Shipley believes "the Jaguars have bigger and more expansive plans for." It's possible the former slips so far in drafts that he becomes a tremendous option as an RB2 in zero-RB builds.

RELATED: 

Travis Etienne

SOURCE: John Shipley on Twitter

Jun 18, 2021, 12:02 PM ET

 

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Great guy to target...his owner is probably spooked by Etienne but I do believe that while he's not gonna have the value he did last last year he will be a very solid piece of a fantasy RB unit and he will always be one injury away from a potential top 10 season...adjust your expectations and go get him!

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50 minutes ago, Boston said:

Great guy to target...his owner is probably spooked by Etienne but I do believe that while he's not gonna have the value he did last last year he will be a very solid piece of a fantasy RB unit and he will always be one injury away from a potential top 10 season...adjust your expectations and go get him!

Problem is most that owners are not willing to give him cheap, which is what most people would be interested in doing.

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Just now, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Problem is most that owners are not willing to give him cheap, which is what most people would be interested in doing.

I don't think you will get him cheap but I do think some of his Owners will cash out on him at a very reasonable price.

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1 hour ago, Boston said:

Great guy to target...his owner is probably spooked by Etienne but I do believe that while he's not gonna have the value he did last last year he will be a very solid piece of a fantasy RB unit and he will always be one injury away from a potential top 10 season...adjust your expectations and go get him!

Different roles on their respective teams but I kind of view him in the same prism I do Kareem Hunt.  Fairly young, proven RB1's who are the lesser RB's to own on their own teams but still project as usable mid to low end RB2's who are both an injury away from as you said top 10 potential.

 

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On 6/19/2021 at 10:31 AM, Boston said:

I don't think you will get him cheap but I do think some of his Owners will cash out on him at a very reasonable price.

I wouldn't give a 1st round pick for him for sure.  His owners might bite on a 2nd and probably should if it is projected to be early.  Where it gets dicey is when the 2nd is projected to be late.  In that case it's probably better for the Robinson owner to hold for now, especially if they are weak at RB.  I would think the ETN owner would buy for a mid-2nd, but I could be on drugs.

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There is a major debate in my league about Robinson's value.

1. The Robinson owner continues to take umbrage that the best offers they're receiving are 2nd round picks. 

2. The Etienne owner believes Robinson will immediately become an afterthought. 

I'm not sure what to think, but I probably wouldn't pay more than a 2nd for Robinson because I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle. 

This has committee written all over it. From an NFL standpoint, JAX is loaded with a plethora of riches. From a FF standpoint it's a bit of a mess. 

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3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I wouldn't give a 1st round pick for him for sure.  His owners might bite on a 2nd and probably should if it is projected to be early.  Where it gets dicey is when the 2nd is projected to be late.  In that case it's probably better for the Robinson owner to hold for now, especially if they are weak at RB.  I would think the ETN owner would buy for a mid-2nd, but I could be on drugs.

The Robinson owner is trying to get a 1st from the Etienne owner, but the Etienne owner won't even offer a 2nd. 

Kind of a messy FF situation for all parties. I completely agree with your assessment. IMO the Etienne owner would be sharp to pick up the handcuff for a 2nd. The rest of the league should likely stay away from that price unless they project it to  a late 2nd. Since the Robinson owner isn't likely to accept that, it's probably a hold. 

Meanwhile I might see if the Etienne owner wants Hyde. 💡

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6 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I wouldn't give a 1st round pick for him for sure.  His owners might bite on a 2nd and probably should if it is projected to be early.  Where it gets dicey is when the 2nd is projected to be late.  In that case it's probably better for the Robinson owner to hold for now, especially if they are weak at RB.  I would think the ETN owner would buy for a mid-2nd, but I could be on drugs.

My outlook is that ETN is going to be awesome and I am skeptical of how much Robinson will actually see the ball. I am thinking he gets about 100 touches.

That said I would likely give up a 2nd round pick for Robinson for insurance anyways, so I don't think you are far off here. I think most people who might be interested in buying Robinson value him more than I do.

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1 hour ago, Ruffrodys05 said:

I gather this is a contrarian viewpoint but I would not accept a 1st for Robinson in my league. He's my RB3 behind Chubb & Dobbins. Even still, I'm not parting with him. I've huge doubts that Etienne will supplant Robinson this season. 

See, this is exactly my point in the debate that's happening in my league. The Robinson owner values him very high, and the Etienne owner values him very low. The rest of the league has been throwing out 2nd rounders for him, which the Robinson owner expressed frustration about. 

So Robinson is a clear hold for owners, and Etienne owners looking to handcuff (or tandem or however you think it'll shake out) have a very challenging deal ahead of them.  

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A 2nd or equivalent player is all that you can get for Robinson today.  And that's fine with me, because he was likely a very late round rookie draft pick or waiver wire addition.  Accept that he's not worth a 1st and take your profit.

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I have so much of him and wouldn't take a 2nd or equivalent unless it was in a package of some kind. I took ETN in a few spots but somehow none of them had Robinson. I made one trade during the draft where I had Robinson already and moved CEH for ETN plus a draft bump. But I would *probably* pay a 2nd for Robinson on the other squads with ETN. Except I typically spend all my 2nds during the drafts. I don't typically try to handcuff in dynasty but I like Robinson a lot and think he could be a rare 2nd contract play. Seems so far away from now though. 

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23 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

My outlook is that ETN is going to be awesome and I am skeptical of how much Robinson will actually see the ball. I am thinking he gets about 100 touches.

That said I would likely give up a 2nd round pick for Robinson for insurance anyways, so I don't think you are far off here. I think most people who might be interested in buying Robinson value him more than I do.

100 touches?  I'll take the over on that. 

I wouldn't consider moving him until I see a couple games.   Even if he's a total non-factor he's going to have rnd 2 value for handcuff purposes alone.  

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45 minutes ago, cockroach said:

100 touches?  I'll take the over on that. 

I wouldn't consider moving him until I see a couple games.   Even if he's a total non-factor he's going to have rnd 2 value for handcuff purposes alone.  

 

19 minutes ago, menobrown said:

You could double that and I'd bet the over knowing only way I lose is if he goes down early.

Gimme the over 100 but under 200. #### still thinking in 16 game terms. Hmmmm.

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18 hours ago, rockaction said:

He's not worth a first.

I would for sure not remotely consider giving up a future #1 for him.

My first thought was to reply saying I don't value him as worth a current first  either but I just did a startup with the group from here and I took Robinson as essentially rookie 12 so it feels contradictory for me to say he's not worth ANY current #1.

In a general sense no he's not as sexy as some of those WR's you can grab, but when Sermon and Carter are gone and the RB need is real and you weight that vs adding another WR to what is most teams most surplus position spot I think it's in range of his value depending on what WR's are left and team need. Saying that I just thought about my other current teams and in none of them would I have given up pick 12 for Robinson, but those teams are all deeper at RB then my startup was and still is.

 

 

 

 

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FWIW Mike Clay has Robinson projected for 195 touches with Carlos Hyde seeing 35.

I think these numbers are too high especially the 54 targets 42 receptions he has Robinson getting. Robinson had 5.7 yards per target last season so while a lot of receptions not great efficiency on those.

I am pretty sure that ETN is much better at this than Robinson is and I am more expecting his share of targets to be like 2 per game than 4 per game that Clay has.

When I say about 100 touches I mean a range of something like 80-120

For those saying 200 touches I am curious how many targets and receptions you think that is.

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3 hours ago, TS Garp said:

My projection for 17 games:

172 carries, 740 yards, 6 touchdowns, 42 targets, 30 receptions, 225 yards, 0 touchdowns

 

Do you also have projections for Etienne? Your Robinson stats seem low but curious how you see the whole picture.

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1 hour ago, Wise Old Owl said:

Do you also have projections for Etienne? Your Robinson stats seem low but curious how you see the whole picture.

Yes, here's how I see it:

Robinson:

172 carries, 740 yards, 6 touchdowns, 42 targets, 30 receptions, 225 yards, 0 touchdowns

Etienne:

128 carries, 602 yards, 3 touchdowns, 64 targets, 46 receptions, 451 yards, 4 touchdowns

Hyde:

88 carries, 370 yards, 3 touchdowns, 24 targets, 16 receptions, 86 yards, 0 touchdowns

Lawrence:

84 carries, 323 yards, 6 touchdowns

 

Edited by TS Garp
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