No worries. I have been testy lately and for reasons completely unrelated to this discussion.
I misunderstood the 140 targets point I think. If you jave Brown getting 119 targets I think that is within the range of possibilities for him. I might say 110 targets as a median range for him and 119 might be closer to upside number for him. I think the Titans have a lot of good skill position players to also use, and so I wouldn't want to go overboard on this as far as opportunity for Brown. Again I think looking at the total market share of targets is a good guide line for this.
I may be wrong about Darrinton Evans, I have not spent a lot of time learning about him. They used a pretty high draft pick on him though, and Dion Lewis did have 32 targets last season, and 67 targets for the Titans in 2018. Maybe
@Bri could spreak more on that and what the Titans plans for Evans are.
Another thing I noticed when looking at snap counts is that MyCole Pruitt played 44% of their snaps even with Walker playing 20% in their first 6 games as well. That is a lot of TE snaps. They only targeted Pruitt 8 times over the season, but I am familiar with him from his time with the Vikings. He can catch the ball. Maybe they use him more? I would like to hear what Bri's thoughts are on that. In any case these are two players who could be getting a small slice of the opportunity pie for the Titans that you are not accounting for.
You may be right about Tannehill. The Dolphins have been a train wreck. The Titans offensive line much better than anything he had to work with before. I wonder what the loss of Tyler Conklin may have on that front? I think Tannehills efficiency greatly benefited from play action and the threat of Derrick Henry in a similar way that play action helped Kirk Cousins improve his efficiency on fewer pass attempts. That said it is a small sample size we are talking about here and I am skeptical of him being able to maintain that. Who knows though, maybe he does.
As far as the rushing TD by a WR in more than one season, I did a
search on that. We have a few. Not sure why Danny Woodhead was included in the search, but we have Tavon Austin who has only failed to score a rushing TD one year in his career so far. Patterson has scored TD 4 different times. There are 3 seasons where he did not. Percy Harvin did it 4 times although he was injured in 2013 after one game breaking that streak up. Tyreek Hill has done it twice so far and he may add to that. Curtis Samuel has done it two years in a row now and lots of career left. Bobby Woods has scored a rushing TD two years in a row now after not doing so in his first 5 seasons.Mohammed Sanu did it once. I dont see anyone else repeating from this list besides Joe Webb and Tayson Hill who were more TE/QB than WRs.
Point is that a WR scoring a rushing TD is pretty rare and them repeating that feat each season much more rare. The players who have done it like Austin and Patterson, their teams schemed this specifically for these players. In my view Percy Harvin was a complete WR unlike them, but he was fantastic as a runner as well. They would just use him as a RB at times, but this is when they had Peterson and Ponder as well. All the Vikings did was run the ball back then, including with their WR. It is far from ideal.
In this case I would prefer using a fraction on that rather than a full TD.
I dont see any rushing TD for
Randall Cobb
eta - Evans did have 5 receiving TD for
Appalacan State last year and a very good yards per reception average.