QB Mac Jones, JAX (1 Viewer)

Faust said:

Could Jones be QB 49ers have targeted for No. 3 pick in draft?

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Faust said:

Video link:

Bucky Brooks: Bucs must consider Mac Jones at pick No. 32 if available

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We’ll go in chronological order, so we’re starting with Jones, who had a bit of a shorter throwing session than Wilson—partly because he’s going to throw again, and is expected to show a little more, this week. Another thing worth mentioning is that the Tide’s trio of potential first-round skills guys (receivers DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris) sat this one out.

NFC exec 1 on Jones: “I thought he did really well. I thought he threw the ball well, his accuracy was obvious. He had couple misses early, where you could see how competitive he is. He has a stronger arm than people think, he’s better athlete than people think. And the testing numbers show he’s a better athlete than people think. His movement in drills show it, he threw the ball well on the run.… It seems like he has a presence to him. The drawbacks may be thinking he’s a one-year guy, and there are the arguments on the talent around him. But nobody made those comments on [Joe] Burrow, right? I love Burrow, but he had a lot of good players around him.… I think Jones is a good player. I don’t think he’s elite. But he had good moments, and you saw at all year and at the pro day, the stage isn’t too big for him.”

AFC exec 1 on Jones: “He threw fine at the pro day, most guys do.… Athletically he’s just average. He fits into the pocket-passer category. Had enough arm strength, ball placement was a little off on some throws, but he’s very accurate, he showed a lot of that on film.… The guys love him. You heard ex-teammates chose him over Tua. He definitely has an outgoing personality, you could see him cheering his guys on.… If anything, you worry about the lack of athleticism, when he has to create on his own, and he’s not throwing to first-round receivers all over the place.… He’s not an upper-echelon athlete. Tom Brady isn’t either, but he compensates with anticipation, accuracy, experience. Mac will have to develop that.”

NFC exec 2 on Jones: “I thought it was an efficient workout, a workout that showed good arm strength, very good accuracy, and better athlete than you thought on tape. The impressive thing was that from the Senior Bowl to this workout, he’s improved. His footwork was better, his accuracy was better. And he was working with different receivers at the Senior Bowl, but his top guys at Bama weren’t working out either. He seemed to have more arm at pro day.… I didn’t think there was anything he didn’t do well, nothing disappointed me.… I wouldn’t say he’s a first-rounder. I think he’ll be a solid pro, and that puts him in second or third round. But for me, not the first round.”

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JohnnyU said:

Man-o-man, I hope not for the sake of 49'ers fans.

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MAC JONES QB, ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

Football Morning in America's Peter King reports that San Francisco 49ers GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan will attend the pro day of Alabama QB Mac Jones on Tuesday, rather than that of Ohio State QB Justin Fields.

Interesting, very very interesting. After San Fran traded up to No. 3 with the Dolphins last week, NBC Sports' Chris Simms forwarded on Twitter that Mac Jones was a real possibility in that slot. Social media may have laughed initially -- because the conventional wisdom had it that there was no need to jump all the way to the third pick for Jones -- but that laughter might be turning into nervous chuckling at this point. Several evaluators almost immediately followed up Simms' comments with similar sentiments, but the real eyebrow-raiser is this tangible note from King. Now, the 49ers will send a small smattering of representatives to Fields' pro day on Tuesday. just not the two biggest names in the organization. Read into this what you will, but Jones looks like a real possibility for the 49ers at this point.

SOURCE: Football Morning in America

Mar 29, 2021, 1:14 PM ET

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JohnnyU said:

Man-o-man, I hope not for the sake of 49'ers fans.

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The San Francisco 49ers could be ready to stun the football world with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Most observers presumed the 49ers were looking to draft Justin Fields or Trey Lancewith the selection they acquired in a blockbuster trade with the Miami Dolphins this week. But NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said Monday that other teams believe otherwise.

"The majority of people around the league believe this is for Mac Jones," Jeremiah said on "The Athletic Football Show" podcast.

He added: "Of the people that you would want to believe and put your faith in, the overwhelming majority of them believe this is going to be Mac Jones with that pick. So that's what's so shocking."

Jones is widely viewed as the draft's fifth-best quarterback prospect behind Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Fields, and Lance. Lawrence and Wilson are odds-on favorites to go first and second overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets, respectively.

Jeremiah added that the Carolina Panthers, who own the No. 8 overall selection, are the team that's been most connected to Jones. The draft analyst suggested the 49ers may have thought it was necessary to move ahead of Carolina to secure the Alabama standout.

San Francisco sent the No. 12 pick, its next two first-rounders, and a 2022 third-round selection to Miami for No. 3.

Jones and Fields will both perform at their respective pro days on Tuesday. 49ers general manager John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan are expected to attend Jones' workout, while assistant GM Adam Peters is set to scout Fields, according to Peter King of NBC Sports.

King wrote that he's "not sure I would infer huge meaning to that, but it could be significant."

Jones was a Heisman finalist last season after succeeding Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa as the Crimson Tide's starter. The 22-year-old threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns against four interceptions, production that exceeded Tagovailoa's best at Alabama.

But while Tagovailoa was the No. 5 pick in last year's draft, most analysts have projected Jones as a fringe first-round selection.

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A Risky Profile

Part of Simms' rationale for thinking the 49ers would go after Jones is that he's pro-ready. That may be true, and he's better positioned to analyze that than we are given that Simms played the position. But from a statistical resume perspective, safety is not a box that Jones checks.

In our looks at successful first-round quarterbacks, the ideal mold has been an efficient, young, and experienced passer coming out. Jones has the efficiency aspect nailed; he led the nation by a wide margin in ESPN's QBR this year. His 12.8 AY/A against top-50 defenses by SP+ will tie Baker Mayfield for the best mark among drafted quarterbacks since 2010 once Jones has his name called next month. He absolutely got the job done.

The other two marks are much shakier, and that is significant.

Jones is coming off his age-22 season and had at least 10 pass attempts in 19 games during his collegiate career. Of the 60 quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2000, 16 have been Jones' age or older and have come out with fewer than 35 games under their belt. Those 16 quarterbacks have finished in the top 10 in numberFire's Total Net Expected Points (NEP) just twice across 69 qualified seasons. Not nice!

That's among quarterbacks with fewer than 35 games of experience. Jones is more than a full collegiate season behind that mark. The only two older prospects with fewer than 20 games of experience who went in the first round are Mark Sanchez and Mitchell Trubisky, both of whom went in the top five and failed to live up to expectations.

The draft capital aspect is key here because that has proven to be the best predictor of success among first-round quarterbacks. For as many mistakes as NFL talent evaluators make, they're tremendously skilled at what they do. So if Jones were to go inside the top three, it would boost his odds of hitting.

But even when we narrow our scope to just older, inexperienced quarterbacks who went in the top five picks, we run into trouble. That trims our list to eight quarterbacks. Here are those eight plus how often they finished as top-5, top-10, and top-15 passers by Total NEP.

(click the link to see the table)

It's possible -- if not likely -- that Joe Burrow winds up being a hit, and we did see Carson Wentz flash brilliance at one point. But this shows that quarterbacks in Jones' mold do not qualify as being safe.

This isn't a downside that you get with Fields and Lance. Fields is six months younger than Jones with three more games of experience. He also ranked second behind only Jones in Total QBR and put up solid efficiency numbers despite facing potentially the toughest quarterback schedule of all time. Lance is 20 months younger with three fewer games of experience and had great numbers. Those numbers came against FCS teams, but it included a playoff run to the FCS Championship, so it's not as if he was just playing cupcakes.

So, with Jones, you don't get someone who profiles to have a high floor. That must mean that the ceiling here is elite. But with Fields and Lance both providing more skills as rushers than Jones, it's hard to argue that his ceiling is higher than theirs. That makes it curious that Jones would be the target here, even before baking in the capital they moved to get up to three.

The Shanahan Effect

Based on the data, Jones doesn't profile as someone who's super likely to hit at the next level, even when you account for the draft capital tied to him. But that views these picks in a vacuum. We have the benefit of adding context, and that context is favorable for whichever rookie quarterback winds up piloting the 49ers' offense.

The thing we dwell on most is Shanahan's ability to coach up quarterbacks, and that's legitimate. In an abbreviated sample this year, Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 11th in Passing NEP per drop back (which includes deductions for expected points lost on sacks, incompletions, and interceptions). That was while dealing with an ankle injury and playing without key pass-catchers most of the year. Garoppolo was eighth in that metric in 2019.

This isn't to say that Garoppolo is some elite passer. If that were the case, the 49ers would likely just stand pat. It says that the environment that quarterback is in is conducive to efficiency, and that's likely to remain the case next year with a rock solid offensive line and George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk catching passes.

In this type of environment, Jones' hit rate goes up. If they take him with the third pick, the odds @OldTakesExposed goes nuts on the previous section are astronomical. So, Jones' lackluster profile in no way says he can't be a successful NFL player. But the odds he succeeds in San Francisco also shouldn't sway us toward going too heavy in the betting markets around these rumors.

Why We Should Stay Away

If you're looking for a reason to remain skeptical, you need not look further than Shanahan's old colleague, Sean McVay.

When the Los Angeles Rams moved on from Jared Goff this year, it wasn't because he was inefficient. Goff has as many top-five and top-10 seasons in Total NEP as Matthew Stafford despite having six fewer qualified seasons. It was because Goff didn't move the needle up, instead providing basically what the offense gave him.

That's the worry with Jones. Can he actually elevate an offense, or will he be similar to Garoppolo and Goff where he produces efficient seasons but struggles when a situation deteriorates?

Given the Rams admitted their mistake with the Goff contract just two months ago, it is extremely difficult to see a similar coach go all in on a player who could very well wind up in the Goff and Garoppolo bucket with the third overall pick. No matter how much smoke we see around Jones to the 49ers, that one point should serve as a red flag in our minds.

It's also not as if the 49ers have zero incentive to fib about their interest in Jones. The New York Jets -- at least in theory -- could still trade out of the second overall pick. If the 49ers are fully transparent in their preferences at quarterback, some other team could give the Jets a Godfather offer for the second pick and leapfrog them. If they instead slobber all over Jones, the odds they get jumped go down, giving them better odds of snagging the actual apple of their eye at three.

That doesn't mean you should bet all the overs on Jones' draft pick prop. Putting the number at 8.5 means the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers could both get you an under by taking Jones in the first round, which seems very much in play. It's moreso to say that we should be wary of laying a heavy number on Jones to the 49ers (once it's available) because there are such significant reasons to remain skeptical.

It's very possible the rumors here are all legit and that Jones is the pick. If that happens, he could very well succeed in the NFL. But part of betting is knowing when there are enough red flags to stay out of a market entirely, and unless we get a friendly number on Jones to the 49ers -- which seems unlikely at this point -- the best move seems to be sitting this one out and seeing if we get better information down the road.

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JohnnyU said:

I could be wrong about Jones as an NFL QB..  I'm not sure we've seen his accuracy from him under pressure, because hasn't been under pressure and when I did, he didn't seem to be great, but I could be wrong obviously.

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According to NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah, “everything you hear points to (Alabama QB) Mac Jones to the 49ers” at No. 3 overall. 

This is just Jeremiah passing along the buzz he's heard, and not attempting to issue a "report." The Jones-to-Niners smoke has been billowing since they traded up to No. 3 overall last Friday. Coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch made an ostentatious show of attending Jones' Pro Day on Tuesday, which some might argue is a transparent smokescreen. It could be that, or it could be the Niners knowing they have their man, with most signs pointing to BYU's Zach Wilson going No. 2 to the Jets after Trevor Lawrence to the Jags. Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, "the buzz of Jones going real early is legit." ESPN's Adam Schefter reports he "wouldn't be surprised" if Jones is the Niners' pick. 

RELATED: 

San Francisco 49ers

SOURCE: Matt Barrows on Twitter 

Mar 30, 2021, 1:36 PM ET

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Blackbear said:

Jones looked better today in the time I could tune in. Definitely was hitting most throws outside the hash and deep. I thought his previous pro day was not great, so this was good for him. He even showed more mobility throws and threw in a Philly special.

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PFF Draft @PFF_College

Mac Jones overthrow 

Bill Belichick:

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PFF Draft @PFF_College

Camera cuts to Kyle Shanahan after another Mac Jones overthrow

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Andy Dufresne said:

I have no idea if Mac Jones is legit. But that video of Bill could have just as easily been him responding to a question of "Do you want a side of asparagus tips with that?"

What was his reaction after this throw?

And Kyle Shanahan always looks that dopey.

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Andy Dufresne said:

I have no idea if Mac Jones is legit. But that video of Bill could have just as easily been him responding to a question of "Do you want a side of asparagus tips with that?"

And Kyle Shanahan always looks that dopey.

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The 49ers' decision makers were taking a close look at the Tide QB just days after the club moved up to the No. 3 pick of the draft in a trade with the Miami Dolphins. The aforementioned Shanahan confirmed that Jones is indeed among the prospects the team is considering with the third overall selection, per Rapoport.

Jones had several overthrows over the course of a 65-throw script in his second throwing session in as many weeks, but included a heavy helping of deep passes and play-action throws. He earned strong reviews from NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah.

"I thought he was better at this pro day than the first one," said Jeremiah during Tuesday's Path to the Draft Pro Day Special. "... I thought he looked quicker, I thought he looked more crisp getting outside and even some of the stuff he did here within the pocket, I liked. Now, he overshot a couple balls, which was fine. If you're going to miss, miss long. But I thought if you're going to stack it up and compare workout No. 1 versus workout No. 2, I saw more in this workout that got me excited than I did in the first one."

From all accounts, Jones accomplished exactly what he wanted to and has put himself in the conversation to go much higher than where the conventional wisdom had him placed prior to his two workouts.

"I just wanted to show that I'm not a statue and I can make plays. I'll be able to do that, hopefully, at the next level," he told Palmer after his throwing session. "Obviously, it's not going to be a clean pocket with five perfect blockers. I'm going to have to move a little bit, but you also don't want to ruin the structure of the play. I just wanted to show that on a few, even on my creative footwork and stuff, but at the end of the day I'm a pocket passer. I'm just going to drop back and let it rip."

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Pro Football Network's Tony Pauline hears that there is a strong hunch within the NFL that the 49ers will use the No. 3 pick on Alabama QB Mac Jones.

"As difficult as it is for me to believe, people within the league tell me that in their gut, they think that guy is going to be Mac Jones," Pauline said while speaking with Trey Wingo on a late March episode of their 'Draft Insiders' podcast. Not that Pauline, himself, would go in that direction. He termed any such move by the 49ers as an overdraft. San Francisco shook the football world last week when they traded up from No. 12 to No. 3 with the Dolphins, giving up multiple future first-rounders in the process. There is so much smoke around Jones and the 49ers at this point that it almost feels like a trick. But the smoke exists nonetheless. 

SOURCE: Pro Football Network

Apr 1, 2021, 1:20 PM ET

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The first round of the NFL draft is generally reserved for superheroes. And the prospects with the most extraordinary physical gifts are viewed within the scouting community as top-10 talents due to their ability to transform franchises.

With that standard in mind, I just don't understand why Mac Jones is being hailed as a potential top-five pick in the 2021 class.

Perhaps the Alabama quarterback is a secret member of The Avengers, operating like Tony Stark as Iron Man. If you're not familiar with the Marvel Comics character, Stark becomes a superhero after creating an electromagnetic, armored suit that grants him superpowers. Watching Jones' meteoric rise up the charts, I believe some observers have made the Heisman Trophy finalist the Iron Man of the draft.

While I'm not issuing a complete dismissal of Jones' talents as a pinpoint passer with nice timing, touch and anticipation, he significantly benefited from playing behind an NFL-caliber offensive line with first-round talents at wide receiver and running back. The Crimson Tide offense was the armored suit that elevated Jones' game, and scouts need to keep his production in perspective when gauging his talent.

Now, of course, many of the other quarterbacks in this class played alongside five-star talents, but Jones lacks superpowers as a player himself. What happens to Tony Stark when you take away his suit?

The 6-foot-3, 217-pounder doesn't display A-grade arm talent or athleticism between the lines. Jones lacks the speed, quickness and running ability to extend plays or create big gains outside of structure. Moreover, he is confined to the pocket as a statuesque signal-caller built to throw traditional dropback passes behind a fortress.

To his credit, Jones is an outstanding rhythm passer with the capacity to string together completions on short and intermediate throws. He tosses a catchable ball with pinpoint accuracy and a deft touch, despite the fact that this wasn't always needed in Tuscaloosa. Obviously, he isn't to blame for his receivers' ability to get open -- wide open -- but scouts should note the consistent separation and space gained by 'Bama receivers at the top of routes. This led to fewer tight-window throws that challenged Jones to fit the ball into the mailbox.

Comparing Jones' skills to those of Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Trey Lance, there is a drastic difference between the Alabama standout and those other projected first-rounders. Jones is nowhere near the athlete of Fields or Lance, and he lacks the magical arm talent to compete with the quartet in a game of H-O-R-S-E. Although football isn't the Olympic decathlon, the modern NFL's elite quarterbacks are able to deliver "wow" plays with their arm talent and athleticism.

Think about it this way: How many times have we seen Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers make a jaw-dropping throw with the game on the line? What about Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen utilizing their legs to create critical plays as runners?

If we hold Jones to that standard when it comes to quarterback play at the NFL level, the Alabama standout falls short. Far short. He is incapable of winning a shootout as a gunslinger forced to play sandlot football.

With those concerns in mind, I don't know why Jones is being viewed as a first-round prospect, much less a potential top-five pick. The top of the draft should be reserved for superheroes; Jones' lack of superpowers should keep him out of that range.

Some are comparing Jones to Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield, two recent No. 1 overall picks who don't offer elite arm talent or exceptional athleticism. First of all, those two are outliers based on raw talent. Also, Burrow is a superior athlete to Jones. And Mayfield, well, his career plight confirms my belief in the need for elite prospects to possess superpowers. The Browns' QB1 helped his franchise hit the 2020 postseason after settling into a system that featured the running game and play-action passing attack, with a stout O-line in front of him and some five-star weapons by his side.

Jones will need a similar supporting cast to thrive at the next level. He must play behind a talented offensive line that keeps him protected and enables him to throw from a clean pocket due to his limited mobility. And he will need to play with dynamic pass catchers who enable him to dink and dunk with a variety of catch-and-run concepts.

Given the "system quarterback" feel I get when I evaluate Jones and his traits, I just cannot issue a first-round grade and tout him as a franchise player. The Alabama standout will likely hear his name called in Round 1, but his game and his lack of superpowers could predictably make him an overrated prospect when we review the 2021 draft in a few years.

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Ministry of Pain said:

I mentioned this in the Bucs thread, was kind of kidding but there has to be a plan for Post-Tom at some point and he cannot get mad if the Bucs want to start developing a QB for 2-3 years down the road, whenever. 

Not the biggest Bucky Brooks fan as a media guy. 

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Charlie Potter @Charlie_Potter

ESPN analyst Todd McShay on #Alabama QB Mac Jones: "If you look at the analytics, the three most important things, to me, are what's your QB when you're pressured, when blitzed and when throwing the ball 20-plus yards down the field. He's No. 1 in all three categories."

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WHAT SCOUTS ARE SAYING

“He’s a system guy. He had NFL players at running back, offensive line and wide receiver at Alabama.”

“Nice player. Doesn’t have the strongest arm. Smart. Accurate. Game manager.”

“Kyle Shanahan wants this kind of guy.”

“Everything lines up for the 49ers.”

“Players love him. Coaches love him.”

“He protects the ball and does all the right things at the right times.”

“He understands his strengths and weaknesses and plays to them.”

“His arm is below average. He pushes the ball.”

“From what I see, he is a long-term NFL backup.”

“If your team is not right on that day, you’re not going to go ahead and win the game with him at quarterback.”

“He’ll put you in situations to not get yourself beat. And that’s a great feeling for a head coach.”

“He is prototypical. He’s going to control the game and make a lot more positive plays than negative plays.”

“How long is it going to take him to come back from injuries? Guys who are built like him, it takes extra time.”

“If the 49ers are leaning on Mac Jones being the guy, they understand how important everyone around him has to be to have success. He’s not John Elway. He’s not Brett Favre.”

“Mac Jones will come in and know that offense inside and out.”

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Faust said:

WHAT SCOUTS ARE SAYING

“He’s a system guy. He had NFL players at running back, offensive line and wide receiver at Alabama.”

“Nice player. Doesn’t have the strongest arm. Smart. Accurate. Game manager.”

“Kyle Shanahan wants this kind of guy.”

“Everything lines up for the 49ers.”

“Players love him. Coaches love him.”

“He protects the ball and does all the right things at the right times.”

“He understands his strengths and weaknesses and plays to them.”

“His arm is below average. He pushes the ball.”

“From what I see, he is a long-term NFL backup.”

“If your team is not right on that day, you’re not going to go ahead and win the game with him at quarterback.”

“He’ll put you in situations to not get yourself beat. And that’s a great feeling for a head coach.”

“He is prototypical. He’s going to control the game and make a lot more positive plays than negative plays.”

“How long is it going to take him to come back from injuries? Guys who are built like him, it takes extra time.”

“If the 49ers are leaning on Mac Jones being the guy, they understand how important everyone around him has to be to have success. He’s not John Elway. He’s not Brett Favre.”

“Mac Jones will come in and know that offense inside and out.”

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jtd13 said:

Seems like a lot of smoke that Jones is going at 3. I am still betting it's intentional smoke from SF, but it would be fun watching how the draft goes down if it happens!

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Deamon said:

What exactly do they have to gain by putting this out there?  Hoping the Jets will take him at 2?

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jtd13 said:

Perhaps they really want Fields and are afraid a team like Atlanta would make the jets an offer they can't refuse.

I don't know, but I know NFL teams generally seem paranoid this time of year, and they lie a lot in April. Kyle's dad even said after he drafted Jay Cutler that he intentionally met with other QBs and avoided mething Cutler because he knew he wanted Jay and didn't want another team to think they needed to get in front of Denver to get him. Or something to that effect. 

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Deamon said:

Haha dude... Atlanta isn't trading up to 2 for Fields.

For every smoke screen a team puts out, there's 5 fans who incorrectly assume a smoke screen.

Yes it happens, but in this situation there's not a single possibility of this helping SF at all.

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jtd13 said:

That's a pretty broad statement.

I find it fishy that so many people are hearing Mac is the guy in the 1st week of April. I take it you think they're taking Mac?

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Deamon said:

I'm not sure if they are. All I'm saying is the 49ers have zero to gain by putting it out there. Now that Darnold is gone, that #2 pick is not even remotely for sale. 

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When the San Francisco 49ers shook up draft boards across the NFL by trading up to the No. 3 spot from No. 12, everyone knew they had made their move for a rookie quarterback. The only question was, who would it be? Before long, reports came out saying Mac Jones would be the pick, and not long after that came a wave of criticism from fans opining that San Francisco didn’t need to move up so high— or move up at all— to grab him.

But in an interview with 49ers Talk podcast published on Sunday, Adam Schefter reported that NFL GMs are higher on Jones than armchair GMs at home. To give an idea of how some pro scouts see Jones, Schefter quoted one NFL GM’s assessment of the Alabama QB.“‘He’s got elite accuracy,’” Schefter said quoting his source. “‘He’s an elite processor. And he’s got elite leadership skills.’ Those were his exact words. He said that he’s higher on draft boards— more highly rated than fans believe he is.”It’s easy to understand why NFL GMs would be drawn to Jones. He threw for 4,500 yards and an astounding 41 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions, while also completing 77.4% of his passes. The passing yards and completion percentage led the nation, while his touchdowns trailed only Kyle Trask. Sure, many teams played a different amount of games this season, as conferences put together different COVID-19 plans, or had to miss several games with COVID-19 outbreaks. You can say Jones had more weapons around him than other QBs in the draft too. But you can’t deny that Jones performed on the biggest stages and did nothing but win in 2020.“I like to go to people whose opinion I respect, ask them their opinion and see what they say, and keep compiling these opinions,” Schefter said. “What I’ve heard about Mac Jones so far is pretty strong. Pretty favorable.”

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