Capella
Footballguy
You gotta stop thinking about him like a traditional tight end, and more like Calvin Johnson, but if Calvin Johnson could get a linebacker or a poor coverage safety stuck trying to defend him.
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49ers jump up to #3 pick in draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here is a list of all the TE drafted in the Top 32 picks of the draft. For each player, I used their CareerAV total and compared it to the entirety of their draft class. For example, TJ Hockenson was drafted 8th overall. But among the 2019 Draft Class, he ranks 48th in CareerAV.
Player Year Pick AV
TJ Hockenson 2019 8 48
Noah Fant 2019 20 55
Hayden Hurst 2018 25 66
OJ Howard 2017 19 85
Evan Engram 2017 23 55
David Njoku 2017 29 102
Eric Ebron 2014 10 56
Tyler Eifert 2013 21 71
Jermaine Gresham 2010 21 63
Brandon Pettigrew 2009 20 72
Dustin Keller 2008 30 76
Greg Olsen 2007 31 17
Vernon Davis 2006 6 33
Marcedes Lewis 2006 28 61
Heath Miller 2005 30 31
Kellen Winslow 2004 6 39
Ben Watson 2004 32 33
Dallas Clark 2003 24 25
Jeremy Shockey 2002 14 24
Daniel Graham 2002 21 85
Jerramy Stevens 2002 28 86
Todd Heap 2001 31 38
Bubba Franks 2000 14 86
Anthony Becht 2000 27 105
Tony Gonzalez 1997 13 6
David LaFleur 1997 22 105
Rickey Dudley 1996 9 63
Kyle Brady 1995 9 64
Mark Bruener 1995 27 101
Irv Smith 1993 20 103
Derek Brown 1992 14 128
Johnny Mitchell 1992 15 84
Reggie Johnson 1991 30 114
Eric Green 1990 21 53
Keith Jackson 1988 13 46
That's 35 players. Of those, only Greg Olsen and Tony Gonzalez scored higher than their draft position (although several were very close). Only 4 players earned first round production grades. 16 players produced at a 3rd round level or worse.
Overall, the average draft position was Pick 20 . . . while the average ROI was as Player 65.
Based on that, IMO, TE do not make for worthwhile first round picks. If folks want to say that CareerAV is a dumb statistic and / or it does not treat TE fairly, that's a different debate.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Is there a perennial Playoff team anywhere in that bunch going back over the last 10-20 years? Just seems like majority of the teams that drafted a TE in the 1st were not that good to begin with or their track record not that good.
I'm simply saying it will be hard to find anyone of Pitts caliber and then you factor in mostly poor franchises that drafted most of these top TE prospects, hard to gauge.
I am not a huge fan of going Pitts that high in the draft but others feel like he is Shannon Sharpe in the making.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think Pitts is a good player but the hype is getting a little too rich for my blood. Clearly every player is his own entity and how any previous player ever did does not impact how the guy will perform. I'd be more onboard with him as a mid- to late- first round pick, as Top 5 picks should be cornerstone 10 year players. The value in taking a TE at that point isn't there (at least to me). The last TE rated as high as Pitts was Kyle Rudolph . . . would anyone consider Rudolph as a can't miss, dominant TE?
Capella
Footballguy
I think he’s one of the best receiving prospects to come into the league in the last 15 years. I truly hope Atlanta takes the 4th best QB and passes on him.
Capella
Footballguy
Would you consider Kelce and prime Gronk worthy of top-5 picks? Of course you would (or should, I guess). Pitts has the potential to be in that class.
woodstock
Footballguy
Count me among those who think like you do about Pitts, but has an open mind. I don't think history has been kind to the notion of a draft-and-play TE that creates immediate mismatches, but there's one thing that gives me pause: It's a copycat league, you always hear. And teams have seen how the Raiders use Darren Waller -- and how they used him in his very first year as someone getting playing time for his first time -- to create mismatches on linebackers and even defensive backs. That's why Pitts's performance against top-flight corners in the SEC when they lined him up in the slot or out wide was so important. He was stone cold beating the best corners in the country.
What does that mean for the NFL? Well, extrapolate that a little bit and note that he'll be lining up against linebackers and bigger safeties. I really don't know how this will work, but at some point you either trust every evaluator and their judgments, or you think they've all been subject to a huge groupthink error.
I have no idea which it is, but I'm leaning with the certitude of guys who do this every day and every night. I haven't heard one that isn't sold on this guy, provided the lucky team uses him correctly (a big thing). Like Capella said, leave him into block every so often so there's a token resemblance of a true TE and not just a pass catcher and he'll be fine. I think. I'd still likely avoid picking him that high, but evaluators seem to be convinced.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
And just to show how folks can argue both sides, I completely agree with you and think your facts back up the point that Pitts is way overhyped and I would ask you, which of the hyped Top-10 which mostly are 5 QBs, 3 WRs, a TE and maybe 1-2 OTs, which ones are worth the selection? I think it is apparent the value will be on defense when they start being called off the board. Surtain is a Top-5 DB IMHO, whoever gets him has a 10 year type player. 2-3 of these QBs if not more are going to fizzle. Maybe 1 or 2 of these 3-4 WRs/TE will catch on but not all of them.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I can’t get on the pitts train without knowing who the coaches will be. We’ve seen te after te be touted as the next tony G only to have them blocking because of a weak Oline or suffering from poor qb play or simply a poor scheme for tes. The offense rarely goes through that position.
Capella
Footballguy
Well that’s independent of his talent and potential, but yes.
I assume if he goes to Atlanta they’re gonna be chucking that ball around.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Good stuff both of you, and if that's the case, I would be trading FOR OJ Howard as an example vs spending Top 5 on Pitts. Howard has to be available and I don't know what Capella think about him(bum) but I actually like what I have seen in spurts and feel like Winston held him back, then Arians not the right coach and I know the excuses pile up but whatever it would cost which couldn't be a 1st or 2nd, something reasonable, I would go get him. Howard was one of the best looking TE prospects I felt like I had seen coming out of college including many Univ of Miami guys I had seen in the flesh over the many years and I was sold on Howard, was delighted the Bucs took him, it just hasn't quite worked.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Therein lies the rub. The best TE's in the past 10 years haven't been Top 5 or even first round picks.
Gates - UDFA
Witten - Pick 69
Gronk - Pick 42
Kittle - Pick 146
Kelce - Pick 63
Graham - Pick 95
Ertz - Pick 35
They've performed significantly better than 90%+ of the first round guys. So sure, if you can promise me that talent evaluators have refined their craft and they can identify beast tight ends better (which so far they haven't), then sure if a team is 80% sure the next big thing at TE will pan out then take him. For me, I am not sold that Pitts will be all that, but maybe that's just me.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I thought Shockey was about as can't miss as they come.
-He did make it to 4 Pro Bowls, was an All Pro and also collected 2 Super Bowl rings with both the Giants and the Saints.
Shockey was taken 14th overall but was also in an elite Hurricanes class, several of his buddies drafted same round that year including HoF Ed Reed who went 10 picks later to the Ravens.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
This is a bit too hard to answer as each team should be drafting what is best for their team. For example, we have been discussing ATL, and their problem has been defense. Yet they have been linked to QB / TE / WR in the draft . . . which they already have covered. In their case I would take Surtain.
The other consideration (which I started a thread on) was evaluating how many prospects there are at a given position. There are A TON of WR available this year. As in probably enough that every team could draft and roster one. So if I were a GM, I would be inclined to not draft a Big 3 wide out because there are multiple options available in basically every round.
There are so many people lining up to take offensive players this year that I might be inclined to consider defensive players. But this year, if there are as many teams looking to trade up as has been reported, I would probably move back and pick up more picks.
Capella
Footballguy
I don’t think this has anything to do with evaluating the prospect at all. Scouts miss all the time. Doesn’t mean they stop scouting.
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woodstock
Footballguy
They cited Chris Simms' mock draft with Fields at 32 in that article, for those that didn't click. That's a lousy thing to see, because it reaffirms that that sort of look-at-me media tactic gets rewarded with somebody putting it into print in a serious article.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
TE is one of those hard to define positions in terms of what is considered really good. Shockey only had 2 seasons with 700 receiving yards and had a max of 7 TD. At the time I agree that he was considered can't miss and he did not disappoint as a rookie . . . but that turned out to be his career high in receiving yards. He was always good, but I don't think he quite reached the level that many people thought he would.
ZWK
Footballguy
Rank within your draft class isn't a good way to do this comparison, because of regression to the mean. If you did this same analysis for any other position you'd find similar results, at least directionally.
Let's see... looking at the entire 2005 draft class
Of the 32 players, only 7 scored higher than their draft position. 14 earned first round production grades. Overall, the average draft position was Pick 16.5, while the average ROI was as Player 51.
So they did better than the 1st round TEs, but worse than (what looks like) par.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not sure why comparing the entirety of a draft class is not useful. A better analysis would be to extend things to look at productivity of first round draft picks at all positions and then compare the data among the different positions.
So while what you say is true (overall all the entire grouping of first round picks on average won't end up with first round production). But the odds are good that there will be a varied range of production based on individual positions.
Using your example, the average for all positions in your one year was ROI of Player 51. I just showed the average return on all first round TE across 32 drafts was a ROI of Player 65. In a vacuum as an isolated data point that doesn't mean much, but a broader study over 20 years would probably show that some positions are far better investments than others.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Eh, I thought Lamar Jax was the best QB of that class and was worthy of top 3-5 pick consideration, at least. Then sat there shocked as the entire 1st round nearly passed without him getting picked. Kept thinking to myself, well if the entire league disagrees with my assessment, I must be wrong. Nope.
woodstock
Footballguy
I get your point about the disbelief over a guy dropping in the actual draft, but I was more criticizing the mock draft than I was the evaluators of talent. If you were to place a prop bet right now on Fields going at 32, you'd probably get remarkably good odds. It's a far-fetched scenario. I know the goal of a mock, like everything else in predictive modeling, is to beat consensus and be right, but we're talking about a precipitous drop that nobody really foresees. Simms was doing it for attention and got rewarded with a cite. That's my beef. It's really no big deal, just an aside for anybody who didn't click the link.
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Simms assessment of 2018 QBs was very good. 1.) Lamar Jackson, 2.) Josh Allen, 3.) Baker Mayfield, 4.) Sam Darnold, 5.) Josh Rosen
He must really not like Fields to have him at #5 behind Mond and ahead of Lance. Simms calls Fields raw, says he panics and doesn't throw short passes well. Suitors for Fields include CAR, NE, WFT and the Bears.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
If Fields falls into the laps of say Wash or Chicago at 19/20, this will be one of the biggest drops for a QB I've seen in some time, maybe going back when Rodgers fell and finally landed in Green Bay who were doing fine with Favre at the time.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I'm not familiar with Bill Michaels (or Paul Allen), but they tweeted the following . . .
The 49ers have offered the Packers the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, plus other picks and a number of players from their current roster including Garoppolo for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers turned them down. First reported by @PAOnTheMic and confirmed by others.
LINK
Maybe the Niners really don't know what they will do tonight.
The 49ers have offered the Packers the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, plus other picks and a number of players from their current roster including Garoppolo for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers turned them down. First reported by @PAOnTheMic and confirmed by others.
LINK
Maybe the Niners really don't know what they will do tonight.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I literally just heard this on the radio & they scoffed at any serious talk about Aaron Rodgers but they’re doing due diligence. Apparently they called about Watson too, and please god no.
amnesiac
beer is good
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think the 49ers would be NFC favorites in a hurry if it happened.
but it won’t happen.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Or not. Because this never happened.
Wow, just wow! We are in a new era of the NFL.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m still hoping it’s Fields. Or that the Jets take Fields and let the Niners have Wilson.
Jets fans would lose their collective minds.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Good point. What happens is in the books. What doesn't happen is still just talk.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Because it’s more than likely who they traded up for the whole time.
From the minute the trade news broke, i was skeptical that it was Jones.
like you said about passing on a generational talent at TE, I similarly don’t believe you trade all that draft equity to take a QB with a low ceiling just because he’s the most NFL-ready now.
Like buying the sensible minivan because it’s in good shape instead of the Ferrari that might need a few months in the shop.
Also, side note, Jed York popped up on Twitter today saying “hi all, just here to make friends on social media”
which I have a hard time believing he’d do if a hugely unpopular pick was coming. Like, why would York pop up just to get butchered for taking Jones? Doesn’t add up.
ETA: here’s the tweet
https://twitter.com/jedyork/status/1387821966581657603?s=21
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Half would. Half want Fields. Although with Jets fans, half would be pissed if somehow Lawrence fell to them and the Jets took him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Maybe I was wrong because ESPN is now reporting that Rodgers is demanding to be traded.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Per Schefter . . .
Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers is so disgruntled with the Green Bay Packers that he has told some within the organization that he does not want to return to the team, league and team sources told ESPN on Thursday.
Maybe he can follow in Favre's footsteps and head to NY?
ETA: Actually that probably makes more sense than SF for Rodgers. Bigger media hub, and the Jets can offer a lot more than SF can. Not sure if the presence of LaFleur's brother would be an issue though. Rodgers issue seems to be more with the front office than LaFleur.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
That offense would be insane. They would have 2 solid looks at the SB with that roster.
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