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1 hour ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Enough to throw the #1 off the top of a ticket?

I just don't know what to make of the chances of the 1 hole since they changed the starting gate last year.  It is supposed to be more fair now, but the reality is you always have a cavalcade of horses making a bee line left towards the rail to save ground and avoid getting caught wide.  It's not just the 1 hole - most of the horses on the inside risk getting pinballed, that's why speed is so important out of the gate.  There are potential plusses. KA can rate.  He's comfortable being on the inside.  Could he win? Yes. Will his price reflect his true odds now? No.  6-1 is not fair value from that post.  I think only chance is to break great and then quickly get up to the 2nd flight and try to rate from there.  It's a tall order.  I think he'll run a solid race and find a way to get in the mix but he'll have to be much the best to win now.  Definitely not my key from the #1 slot.  

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Posted (edited)

quick impressions whilst i got a minute - 

- outside of Known Agenda, was a clean draw for all the top dogs. 

the 1 hole is slightly further off the rail than was previously configured with the auxiliary gate ... was not a full field last year, but it looked to be an upgrade, fwiw. 

other plus is that there is no real early speed around him - he should be able to break outta that fustercluck - we don't see any threat to GO! until post 8, in Medina. 

and that's the horse that should break cleanest to the front ... Soupy gotta hustle out from that 19 hole with a ton of urgency - i would expect him to nuzzle in behind Medina. 

RYW drew beautifully for this setup - he can attend behind those 2 for as long as Joel wants - hell, it could be that Soupy jets out to wrangle first before that initial turn, he is most compromised of them all hung out at 19.  if this is how it's gonna go down then i would expect Baffert to instruct to have Medina get ahead of RYW at all costs, putting 2 horses ahead of him ... see how he rates, see how he handles a bit of Kentucky sod dished up in the grill. 

of course this can all be circumvented if Sadler tells Joel to get out on the engine and let 'em play ketchup.

most likely scenario, imo, is Medina & Soupy going to the early lead - would expect very quick, but not blistering, fractions. 

Hot Rod Chuck prolly got the best spot of all ... tucked right outside Medina, and to the inside of both RYW & Soupy ... i would expect him to ration wisely in that stalking pack - this is an honest cat, gonna be impossible to toss him, and extremely hard to not consider as the best KEY option in the field coming from that 9 hole. 

EQ gets the catbird seat directly inside RYW - Cox gonna instruct to never lose sight of the big guy's hip ... no excuses, i believe his draw is damn near as good as Chuck's - would expect both to be very forwardly placed in that stalking pack, which should also include his BG foil Highly Motivated, Mandaloun & Midnight Bourbon. 

dunno who else is gonna send, but i am very intrigued by King Fury up there amidst the heavy hitters ... curious to see how they approach his first 1/2.

O Besos got himself a right plum ol' draw ... i did say his post wouldn't matter, but it kinda does when it's this favorable - he will be able to run every bit of race he wants to outta that slot. 

matter of fact, the two inside of him, #4 Keepmeinmind and #5 Sainthood are both gonna employ the same tactic as OB - fall back, wait for the melt, then make their one move ... would expect the 3 of them comfortably off the pace for a good portion - along with ol' Bourbonic, who will really have no choice from that 20 hole. 

key to this shebang will be how ferocious Medina & Soupy are gonna handle the front - if they go berzerker out there it could hook RYW into something ill-advised ... and that's where it can all explode, especially if those top tier stalkers begin to lose touch. 

no excuses here for anyone but Known Agenda - we're gonna get a tremendous race on Saturday - it's really set up extremely well for the other 19 entrants. 

 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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howzabout Super Stock slapped in the 18 hole at 30-1?

no respect being shown for the Arky, which was supposedly gonna be a 2 horse race between Caddo & Concert Tour, who had a battle in the Rebel back in March. 

so it was a #### 6 horse field, and the top 2 wasted themselves while Santana saved every last #######' inch on the rail with SS, then had a TON of horse to inhale those 2 gassed animals. 

Baffert knew he had to aim CT for the Preakness, and Caddooo popped a fever and dropped  ... really a down year for Oaklawn cred - CT really sunk the star power. 

so we get one of the last major key prep winners at a very nice ml price - a tremendous bargain for those who believe ... don't think the 18 hole is any kinda bother, and we all know the Asmussen connection is balls deep here - SS is the Rodney Dangerfield of '21. 

it's a hell of a tall order, and he did have a dream trip in a very small field - i had him pegged for possibly 20-1 at worst. 

i'm not gonna, but i wouldn't fault one who would. 

 

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4 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

howzabout Super Stock slapped in the 18 hole at 30-1?

no respect being shown for the Arky, which was supposedly gonna be a 2 horse race between Caddo & Concert Tour, who had a battle in the Rebel back in March. 

so it was a #### 6 horse field, and the top 2 wasted themselves while Santana saved every last #######' inch on the rail with SS, then had a TON of horse to inhale those 2 gassed animals. 

Baffert knew he had to aim CT for the Preakness, and Caddooo popped a fever and dropped  ... really a down year for Oaklawn cred - CT really sunk the star power. 

so we get one of the last major key prep winners at a very nice ml price - a tremendous bargain for those who believe ... don't think the 18 hole is any kinda bother, and we all know the Asmussen connection is balls deep here - SS is the Rodney Dangerfield of '21. 

it's a hell of a tall order, and he did have a dream trip in a very small field - i had him pegged for possibly 20-1 at worst. 

i'm not gonna, but i wouldn't fault one who would. 

 

I'm in an FF type draft pool where we take turns selecting horses. I definitely have SS on my board. Should be able to save him for a later round.

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2 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I'm in an FF type draft pool where we take turns selecting horses. I definitely have SS on my board. Should be able to save him for a later round.

interesting - how many drafters?  figure anything more than 4 is not gonna cut it. 

1.1 RYW

:popcorn:

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4 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

interesting - how many drafters?  figure anything more than 4 is not gonna cut it. 

1.1 RYW

:popcorn:

Right now it's 3 of us out of our FF league but have a  4th lined up that would give us an even 5 rounds.

Edited by Leroy Hoard
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even tho i cant help but think somebody comes out of the cloud this year, the thing i will have to say about the two favorites is that neither one is likely to blow each other's gig. they are probably the most likely Top Two to be in the tri that i've seen in a while.

Edited by wikkidpissah
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55 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

take a look at this breeze from 4/23 - now, tell me ... if this cat makes it to the gate on Saturday, who do you think is most likely to bolt outta there setting potential suicidal early fractions? 🤔

 

IF he makes it. 

Looks like he got some juice to go with his soup and sandwich.

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Posted (edited)

here's a look at the field, as per their top BSF & last race run's finish & BSF - will go by post draw:

PP/Horse/Best BSF/Last Race Result & BSF (* denotes career best BSF in last race):

1- Known Agenda 94 Fla. Derby (1st) 94*

2- Like the King 86 Jeff Ruby (1st) 86*

3 - Brooklyn Strong 94 Wood Memorial (5th) 82

4- Keepmeinmind 92 Blue Grass (5th) 73

5 - Sainthood 86 Jeff Ruby (2nd) 84

6 - O Besos 96 Louisiana Derby (3rd) 96*

7 - Mandaloun 98 Louisiana Derby (6th) 82

8 - Medina Spirit 99 S.A. Derby (2nd) 94

9 - Hot Rod Chuck 99 Louisiana Derby (1st) 99*

10 - Midnight Bourbon 96 Louisiana Derby (2nd) 96*

11 - Dynamic One 89 Wood Memorial (2nd) 89*

12 - Helium 84 TB Derby (1st) 84*

13 - Hidden Stash 88 Blue Grass (4th) 82

14 - EQ 97 Blue Grass (1st) 97*

15 - RYW 100 S.A. Derby (1st) 100*

16 - King Fury 96 Lexington (1st) 96*

17 - Highly Motivated 97 Blue Grass (2nd) 97*

18 - Super Stock 92 Arky (1st) 92*

19 - Soup & Sammy 90 Fla. Derby (2nd) 90*

20 - Bourbonic 90 Wood Memorial (1st) 90*

 

14 of the 20 are coming in off their fastest career outings ... with O Besos & EQ showing steady inclines all the way up.

Medina has some hustle ... as i stated yesterday, i fully expect Baffert to SENDSENDSEND at all costs ahead of RYW - S.A. Derby showed that MS has no business rating off of RYW.  Baffert's gonna challenge early - it's the only path i see for MS.  

one potential problem for MS could be stall neighbor HRC ... Chuckie's been know to bump out the gate, in much less confined fields - interesting that MS is sandwiched amidst the Leezyanna quartet - (Mandaloun has some answering to do for that abysmal 6th place finish).

Soupy gonna join the sizzle up top, and will certainly burn out by the 3/8th ... might be a good bet to finish 20th (i know that's offered at some books).

Helium/Like the King/Hidden Stash all seem very overmatched.  

Hidden Agenda? best to let Irad/Pletcher figure this out ... tough to find better connections.  i caught the Toddfather interview after the draw, and he was none too pleased ... they got work to do. 

conversely, i saw that HRC's connections were hootin' and hollerin' and whoopin' it up when given the 9 hole - he's positioned perfectly. 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
corrected Bourbonic's figs
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4 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

they are coming after the Sheikh 

welp, it's not the first time they tried in Kentucky :shrug: slim to none, but ... slim, nonetheless.

 

 

by all means, let's get with the times and cancel the 126 lbs each Derby horse must carry in favor of assigning social justice weights to each mount. we can start by making EQ carry a harem of SJWs

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58 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

by all means, let's get with the times and cancel the 126 lbs each Derby horse must carry in favor of assigning social justice weights to each mount. we can start by making EQ carry a harem of SJWs

so ... lemme get this straight - your money is on no international incident @1/9?

🫁

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Went back and watched all of the major preps, and now I'm less excited about SS than I was and like Highly Motivated at 10-1 more than I did.    The move RYW made at the 3/8 pole in the SA Derby was impressive.

Still trying to figure out how to bet this thing, but at least I'm narrowing down the combinations.  

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Since I was watching races anyway I decided to bet on the Kentucky Juvenile.   Trifecta box on Averly Jane, Vodka n Water and Bohemian Frost looked good at 8/5, 12-1 and 4-1, but now Vodka n Water is 9/2 and the favorite is down to 3/5.   If it hits I may get my money back.   

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6 minutes ago, -fish- said:

Since I was watching races anyway I decided to bet on the Kentucky Juvenile.   Trifecta box on Averly Jane, Vodka n Water and Bohemian Frost looked good at 8/5, 12-1 and 4-1, but now Vodka n Water is 9/2 and the favorite is down to 3/5.   If it hits I may get my money back.   

Hit it in the slop, but the final odds were 1/2, 5-1 and 4-1.   $1 Tri paid $18.40. 

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Welsch had some interesting comments on the jogs today.  Looks like EQ is moving a bit bitter but Highly Motivated is not.  I'm tossing Highly Motivated for sure. Hidden Stash was throwing his head and held back - Welsch hated the way he looked.  Hot Rod Charlie looked great as did RYW.  Called those 2 out.  Pletchers' looking fine.  Still trying to figure out what to do with Known Agenda from the 1 hole.  Sets up for his style but he has to get the perfect trip and doubt that happens. A lot of people thinking he's going to get shuffled into the first turn and be too far back.

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1 hour ago, Judge Smails said:

Welsch had some interesting comments on the jogs today.  Looks like EQ is moving a bit bitter but Highly Motivated is not.  I'm tossing Highly Motivated for sure. Hidden Stash was throwing his head and held back - Welsch hated the way he looked.  Hot Rod Charlie looked great as did RYW.  Called those 2 out.  Pletchers' looking fine.  Still trying to figure out what to do with Known Agenda from the 1 hole.  Sets up for his style but he has to get the perfect trip and doubt that happens. A lot of people thinking he's going to get shuffled into the first turn and be too far back.

Known Agenda was one of my future bets.  Not putting anything else on him.  Also bailing on Midnight Bourbon.  Watched Highly Motivated’s last breeze and didn’t see anything that would take him out of exotics.

 

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3 hours ago, -fish- said:

Hit it in the slop, but the final odds were 1/2, 5-1 and 4-1.   $1 Tri paid $18.40. 

nice job dude!  keep it up, us idiots need some help.

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1 minute ago, shadrap said:

nice job dude!  keep it up, us idiots need some help.

Feel good.  Hit a $47 $2 exacta in the 10th.  Slop is easier to bet though.

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Posted (edited)

looks like we'll have great weather for both the Oaks & Derby ... hoping for a fast track come early Saturday evening. 

time to start thinning the herd, ticket wise ... the following will not be used by yours truly - 

 

ICARUS TIER:

Soupy, Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon

i've blagged on enough about the anticipated upfront speed ... i believe these 3 will be victims of RYW's elite hustle - he is the clear "lights out" runner, and the 3 i'm tossing won't survive that battle ... most iffy on MS - but i gotta make a strategic stand based on how i see this unfolding.

 

"SEE YA AT PENN NATIONAL!" TIER:

Helium, Hidden Stash, Like the King, Brooklyn Strong

man, i do want some bombs in play, but i just don't see it from these 4 at all.  

 

MANHOLE COVER TIER:

Mandaloun, Super Stock 

SS is a tough toss, but the Arky was dog#### this year - Concert Tour was the crop's biggest non injury bust, by far ... Baffert missed on that one.  Caddoooo is better suited going a mile, tops - SS had a golden trip, let those 2 burn out ... scant 6 horse field.  not gonna back that going in to Churchill's starting gate.  

Mandaloun stepped back in a huge way in the Leezyanna - cannot put my coin behind that kinda chitshow ... he has been working well, and if he runs back to his Risen Star form then he can play a role in the exotics - but i'm not counting on it.  

that's 9 off the top - 11 left, wanna trim that down by a few more, of course. 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Bored Certified Road To The 2021 Kentucky Derby*** Salad Days - Time To Start Tossing 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)

flipside of previous post, these are the 4 who i cannot ignore - will be used on all tix: 

EQ - can't see any scenario where he's not around for last call ... pace can be fast, slow, tepid, glacial - he's proven and tested. would love the tote blowup if he's shut out, so he won't be my key - but if this race goes true to form i wanna cash, case closed. 

RYW - because he's the only one who can get away from this field with elite cruising speed all the way around - the only horse who could wire this lot - nothing i saw to date tells me otherwise ... turf chops (think Barbaro & I'll Have Another) coming off the pace with authority on the cabbage. 

that being said, i do believe he is most precarious to moss the board of the major players - only 2nd start on surface, will be first time in traffic, won't have the rail at his disposal, will be first time dirt is kicked up - unless they let him go, which is what i'm hoping for.  possible burn out up front.   i do believe he'll last to the wire in contention, but if one wants to bet against, there are slight cracks. 

Hot Rod Chuck - strictly for his draw ... can't discount out that 9 hole - honest enough to attend to the stretch ... does not need the lead, was just defaulted to him last out, and he ran with it. 

already outdueled by both EQ and MS, but i expect the latter to fizzle under the early pace, and if eyeballed by EQ in the stretch like the Juvey, so be it. 

O Besos - in love with the incremental steps up the performance ladder and his close in Leezyanna - wants the distance, sits beauty out the 6 hole ... i expect the pace to favor his late move forward - perfect scenario would be top of ticket bonanza ... tall order, but to quote Al Neary in G2 about offing Hyman Roth: "difficult ... but not impossible"

THISCLOSE to being my key. 

 

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32 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

flipside of previous post, these are the 4 who i cannot ignore - will be used on all tix: 

EQ - can't see any scenario where he's not around for last call ... pace can be fast, slow, tepid, glacial - he's proven and tested. would love the tote blowup if he's shut out, so he won't be my key - but if this race goes true to form i wanna cash, case closed. 

RYW - because he's the only one who can get away from this field with elite cruising speed all the way around - the only horse who could wire this lot - nothing i saw to date tells me otherwise ... turf chops (think Barbaro & I'll Have Another) coming off the pace with authority on the cabbage. 

that being said, i do believe he is most precarious to moss the board of the major players - only 2nd start on surface, will be first time in traffic, won't have the rail at his disposal, will be first time dirt is kicked up - unless they let him go, which is what i'm hoping for.  possible burn out up front.   i do believe he'll last to the wire in contention, but if one wants to bet against, there are slight cracks. 

Hot Rod Chuck - strictly for his draw ... can't discount out that 9 hole - honest enough to attend to the stretch ... does not need the lead, was just defaulted to him last out, and he ran with it. 

already outdueled by both EQ and MS, but i expect the latter to fizzle under the early pace, and if eyeballed by EQ in the stretch like the Juvey, so be it. 

O Besos - in love with the incremental steps up the performance ladder and his close in Leezyanna - wants the distance, sits beauty out the 6 hole ... i expect the pace to favor his late move forward - perfect scenario would be top of ticket bonanza ... tall order, but to quote Al Neary in G2 about offing Hyman Roth: "difficult ... but not impossible"

THISCLOSE to being my key. 

 

love your stuff because you list your reasons for a like or dislike.  I'm so jacked for the DERBY.

many moons ago invited to a guys house for the derby.  I never had a mint julip.  So I watch the guy fill a tall glass with bourbon & throw a mint sprig on top.  I'm like WTF?

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13 minutes ago, shadrap said:

love your stuff because you list your reasons for a like or dislike.  I'm so jacked for the DERBY.

many moons ago invited to a guys house for the derby.  I never had a mint julip.  So I watch the guy fill a tall glass with bourbon & throw a mint sprig on top.  I'm like WTF?

:hifive:

had myself one of the worst Julep iterations a few years ago ... i mentioned it earlier, but, bears repeating:

the recipe calls for some sugar, not a case of pixie sticks!

i mean, really ... they went so far as to gussy up the tankard, even had a traditional metal straw, so i thought i was kinda golden, no?

no.

still hungover from that dreck .... "but why did you drink it"? because it was last booze stop on way to placing my bets, so i gulped it in 2 sips. 

 

 

(keep all this in mind when considering my 'capping 😁).

 

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5 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Why can’t I find free pps with post position??

@Leroy Hoard

anyone?

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

Scroll down and you get a few of the races on Derby day. Brisnet is not everyone's favorite, but free is free.

Edited by Leroy Hoard
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wikkid's Derby pix (first in?):

 

well, i've thought about it long & hard, and i just gotta go with the undefeated horse:

 

1- Helium

2 - Rock Your World

3 - Essential Quality

4 - Brooklyn Strong

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3 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

wikkid's Derby pix (first in?):

 

well, i've thought about it long & hard, and i just gotta go with the undefeated horse:

 

1- Helium

2 - Rock Your World

3 - Essential Quality

4 - Brooklyn Strong

Also on Helium but only because of the name.  :bag:

 

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My card as of late Thursday...(but pretty much locked into these)

1)...RTW

2)...Medina Spirt

3)...Midnight Bourbon

4)...Hot Rod Charlie

5)...Besos

All are mixed in for Tri and Super boxes...(On the fence with Known Agenda).

 

Kentucky Oaks pick

1)...Malathaat

2)...Pauline’s Pearl

3)...Travel Column

4)...Clairiere

5)...Pass the Champagne 

Will mix and match with Tri’s and Super’s

Good luck to all, and as always...See ya at the window 💰💰💰

 

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Posted (edited)

 

20 hours ago, -fish- said:

Feel good.  Hit a $47 $2 exacta in the 10th.  Slop is easier to bet though.

you playing Belmont today?

man, Irad is unconscious - just booted home that #2 for me at 5-1 ... stole it on the lead, just like Letruska in the Apple Blossom (though much the best today).

he is just riding lights out these days ... cannot toss Hidden Agenda, 1 hole or not - he's live. 

ps -Ortiz bros won 5 of the 7 on today's card thus far. 

 

ETA: and now Lezcano is back!🤘

Edited by otb_lifer
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15 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Also on Helium but only because of the name.  :bag:

 

been saying all along that, even tho the faves were steady chances, i thought someone would come out of the clouds for this one, so i set about looking for the longshot most likely to run a 105. reeeeally need some precocity from my Derby horse and he showed that in Canada last year and his one '21 prep was in a race that has treated @otb_lifer and i well on the Derby trail, the TBD Derby, he won and ran an OK fig but did so six-wide on both turns then, after what was such a steady move passing the field it almost seemed premature, got hooked by one of the faves and came back on him. Helium has answered every unambitious call and i can put five more lengths on his last prep. for the price, baby, i'm there.

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Bored Certified 2021 Kentucky Derby Thread*** Salad Days - Time To Start Tossing 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)
2 hours ago, wikkidpissah said:

been saying all along that, even tho the faves were steady chances, i thought someone would come out of the clouds for this one, so i set about looking for the longshot most likely to run a 105. reeeeally need some precocity from my Derby horse and he showed that in Canada last year and his one '21 prep was in a race that has treated @otb_lifer and i well on the Derby trail, the TBD Derby, he won and ran an OK fig but did so six-wide on both turns then, after what was such a steady move passing the field it almost seemed premature, got hooked by one of the faves and came back on him. Helium has answered every unambitious call and i can put five more lengths on his last prep. for the price, baby, i'm there.

could be the Casse tag team special ... Soupy helps fry the front, Helium picks it up coming home 🤔

the 2 Taps we loved out the TB Derby both went on to win the Belmont - i think Tapwrit ran in the Blue Grass as a KD tuneup, though ... just like Street Sense in '07 (only TB Derby winner to take the Roses). 

Musket Man was a game lil' bugger, too. 

that 8 week layoff gives pause, but i'm not here to try and talk you (or anybody else) off their picks - that price is smashing, though i do expect him to drift down as he takes sime nice coin once it starts to get serious - i'm seeing him mentioned more often than not.

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3 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

 

you playing Belmont today?

man, Irad is unconscious - just booted home that #2 for me at 5-1 ... stole it on the lead, just like Letruska in the Apple Blossom (though much the best today).

he is just riding lights out these days ... cannot toss Hidden Agenda, 1 hole or not - he's live. 

ps -Ortiz bros won 5 of the 7 on today's card thus far. 

 

ETA: and now Lezcano is back!🤘

I randomly played the 6th at Belmont, but that was it.   

I have Known Agenda in the mix, too.  

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20 minutes ago, BroncoFreak_2K3 said:

I put $100 on Soup and Sandwich to win. Love the name, grey colt (always been good luck to me) and there’s never anything wrong with soup and sandwich

he's gonna give ya run on the front end, that's for damn sure - for as long as he can sustain it. 

gl ✌

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13 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

looks like we'll have great weather for both the Oaks & Derby ... hoping for a fast track come early Saturday evening. 

time to start thinning the herd, ticket wise ... the following will not be used by yours truly - 

 

ICARUS TIER:

Soupy, Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon

i've blagged on enough about the anticipated upfront speed ... i believe these 3 will be victims of RYW's elite hustle - he is the clear "lights out" runner, and the 3 i'm tossing won't survive that battle ... most iffy on MS - but i gotta make a strategic stand based on how i see this unfolding.

 

"SEE YA AT PENN NATIONAL!" TIER:

Helium, Hidden Stash, Like the King, Brooklyn Strong

man, i do want some bombs in play, but i just don't see it from these 4 at all.  

 

MANHOLE COVER TIER:

Mandaloun, Super Stock 

SS is a tough toss, but the Arky was dog#### this year - Concert Tour was the crop's biggest non injury bust, by far ... Baffert missed on that one.  Caddoooo is better suited going a mile, tops - SS had a golden trip, let those 2 burn out ... scant 6 horse field.  not gonna back that going in to Churchill's starting gate.  

Mandaloun stepped back in a huge way in the Leezyanna - cannot put my coin behind that kinda chitshow ... he has been working well, and if he runs back to his Risen Star form then he can play a role in the exotics - but i'm not counting on it.  

that's 9 off the top - 11 left, wanna trim that down by a few more, of course. 

 

I’m having a hard tIme tossing Medina Spirit if for no other reason than Baffert/JohnnyV

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I’m having a hard tIme tossing Medina Spirit if for no other reason than Baffert/JohnnyV

fair point - i just don't see any of that first tier lasting except RYW.

 as i said in the post, MS does give pause, but i gotta stand on how i see the race going down. 

Edited by otb_lifer
gRAmMaR
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28 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

fair point - i just don't see any of that first tier lasting except RYW.

 as i said in the post, MS does give pause, but i gotta stand on how i see the race going down. 

Yep I get it. And you’re making sense, I’m just struggling with it lol

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I have 1 rule for betting in a Kentucky Derby.  I won't bet a horse that backed up at all in the stretch in his final prep going 1 1/8. They have to move forward in the lane or draw away IMO to get 1 1/4.  It's served me really well over the years.  Only year it cost me, and it cost me BIG, was the 2006 Derby.  Bet Barbaro to win, but since I won $1500 on a tri early on the CD card I went for it.  I loved 2 closers in that race to fly and get the bottom half of the exotics.  Steppenwolfer @ 16-1 and Jazil @ 24-1.  It was so crystal clear in my mind.  I thought Barbaro would win, Steppenwolfer would fly to get up for 3rd and Jazil would come from the clouds to get 4th.  I just couldn't figure out 2nd.  Being from California and knowing the locals I decided to take Barbaro 1st, 5 California horses like Point Determined, Brother Derek, Bob and John, AP Warrior and another Baffert horse 2nd, Steppenwolfer solo for 3rd and Brother Derek solo for 4th.  $10 Tri's and $5 Supers.  in a wide open 20 horse Derby field. Bluegrass Cat was so damn logical based on his previous races but he ran a horrible Blue Grass, fading badly.  Still, Pletcher entered him in the Derby anyway.  I tossed him because of my rule.  Of course Barbaro wins, Steppenwolfer comes in 3rd and Jazil is in a dead heat for 4th.  Except I missed on all my horses for 2nd when Bluegrass Cat returns to form and gets up for 2nd.  The $1 super to Jazil paid $44K and that was with a dead heat for 4th with Brother Derek (his super paid $30K for $1).  The $1 tri paid over $5K.  Including some exacta misses I was this close to hundreds of thousands but no dice.

The reason I bring that up is I wonder if I'm potentially facing a Bluegrass Cat situation with Mandaloun.  Did nothing wrong up through the Risen Star, winning going away at 1 1/8 miles with a 98 Beyer.  Then he comes back in the LA Derby and had nothing.  Faded to lose by over 11 lengths, with a lousy 82 Beyer.  Normally, a good trainer will not run in a big race if a horse is going the wrong way.  But Cox is running him back.  Could find nothing wrong.  Working great at CD.  While I don't like him to win, I'm starting to second guess throwing him out entirely in the exotics.  Could be Bluegrass Cat all over again.

This year my rule would disqualify the following:

Brooklyn Strong

Keepmeinmind

Mandaloun

Medina Spirit

Midnight Bourbon

Dynamic One

Hidden Stash

Highly Motivated

Soup and Sandwich

That's 9, and I'm pretty confident in that 8 of these are tosses.  Just not sure of Mandaloun.  Pretty good start to weeding out the field. I know Highly Motivated is a controversial toss but I'll stand by it.

Then a couple of horses to me are auto tosses:

Helium (2 7F races and one 1/16? Has any horse every had less foundation for the Derby?)

King Fury (again, nothing longer than 1 1/16.  You have to have at least go 1 1/8 in my mind)

Bourbonic (bad Wood, best Beyer 89, one that could come back to bite me since his race was visually impressive flying at the end but such a terrible field/race)

Sainthood (slow, faced nothing, 84 Beyer)

Like the King (slow, faced nothing, 86 Beyer)

So that's another 5, or 14 to throw out if you count Mandaloun.  Good place to start.  That leaves 6 as contenders and most likely to hit the super IMHO

Known Agenda 6-1

O Besos 20-1

Hot Rod Charlie 8-1

Essential Quality 2-1

Rock Your World 5-1

Super Stock 30-1

I'm going to focus on these 6 and make a decision on what to do with Mandaloun (15-1).  He's sort of like Super Stock to me.  Don't like either to win but could finish and get a piece.  As you know I don't love Essential Quality to win this, but it looks like he recovered after the iffy work/jogs according to Welsch so he has to be considered for a piece.

That's it for the Thursday night musings.  Still trying to figure out who I'm willing to key with Known Agenda drawing the 1 hole.  Seems like there's money to be made

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Bored Certified 2021 Kentucky Derby Thread*** Derby Eve - Live Odds Ticker In OP 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)
9 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

LIVE ODDS TICKER

... last crunch day for me - laying off the Oaks card - gl to all playing today 🐎

(though i do love Travel Column).

ETA: also chucked this up in my op for ez navigation. 

Hot Rod Charlie leading the field to open the tote?! i figured 3-1 & 7-2 for the 2 favs but theyre both 5-1 early

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Official 2021 Belmont Stakes Thread*** Zahzeetch Fest At Big Sandy - Mal Sits It Out 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)
  • otb_lifer changed the title to It's All About Spa-Mar (DelaToga?) Now Featuring Degen Bullrings For Your Disposable Income & Derision 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)

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