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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (3 Viewers)

IvanKaramazov said:
GroveDiesel said:
So he basically has the 4th biggest TE contact. I guess I just don't get it. His best season was about 750 yards and 6 TDs. He's a much better blocker than Thomas or Graham, but not nearly the receiver.
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If he repeats those numbers, that would be the best season by a Bills TE in franchise history by a pretty solid margin.

His home team tendered him for a little over $7 million a year. We signed him for a little over $7.5 million a year. I don't see that extra half million as a big deal.
Click to expand...
This is the type of thinking that has made the Bills a non-playoff team for 15 years. Just because MIA tendered him for $7 million doesn't mean he is a $7 million a year player. But he CERTAINLY is not a $12.5 million a year player for the next two years. For that kind of money he would not only have to put up Gronk numbers but he would need to put up TOP 3 WIDE RECEIVER numbers.

No matter how you slice it, signing Clay to the contract they did borders on insanity.

In his time with the Jets, Ryan's leading TE each season put up . . .

2009 - Keller 45-522-2

2010 - Kellet 55-687-5

2011 - Keller 65-815-5

2012 - Cumberland 29-359-3

2013 - Cumberland 26-398-4

2014 - Amaro 38-345-2

Clay has posted . . .

2011 - 16-233-3

2012 - 18-212-2

2013 - 69-759-6

2014 - 58-604-3

The Bills leading TE the past 5 seasons . . .

2010 - Stupar 12-111-0

2011 - Chandler 38-389-6

2012 - Chandler 43-571-6

2013 - Chandler 53-655-2

2014 - Chandler 47-497-3

As things stand, Clay could very easily be their fifth receiving option behind Watkins, Woods, Harvin, and McCoy. He could even fall behind Fred Jackson if he returns. Add in that the QB in Buffalo is expected to roll with Cassel at QB . . .

2008 NEP - Watson 22-209-2

2009 KCC - Pope 20-174-1

2010 KCC - Moeaki 47-556-3

2011 KCC - Pope 24-247-1

2012 KCC - Moeaki 33-453-1

2013 MIN - Carlson 32-344-1

2014 MIN - Rudolph 24-231-2

I don't see how people can look at the track record of the parties involved and walk away impressed that Clay is worth $25 million for the next two years. As I see it, if he comes remotely close to being worth that amount of money (which I don't think happens), then there will be very little chance he plays out the contract without demanding a raise or holding out. If he isn't worth that kind of money (which I don't think he will be), the Bills may not even want to pay him the remaining years.

I still don't buy in to the Bills effectively swapping out Chandler for Clay for WAY more money. (We still don't know what NE paid for Chandler, but I am guessing it will be substantially less than Clay got). The Bills had much more pressing areas of need than going out and spending huge money for a TE. This move makes very little sense, even in the best of potential outcomes.

 
We have to remember, and hopefully it's true, that this isn't going to be Rex's offense. This is going to be a Roman offense with hopefully very little Rex influence.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
GroveDiesel said:
So he basically has the 4th biggest TE contact. I guess I just don't get it. His best season was about 750 yards and 6 TDs. He's a much better blocker than Thomas or Graham, but not nearly the receiver.
Click to expand...
If he repeats those numbers, that would be the best season by a Bills TE in franchise history by a pretty solid margin.

His home team tendered him for a little over $7 million a year. We signed him for a little over $7.5 million a year. I don't see that extra half million as a big deal.
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yeah, not sure why people are freaking out here. It's not your cash.

 
Mr. Peterson said:
We have to remember, and hopefully it's true, that this isn't going to be Rex's offense. This is going to be a Roman offense with hopefully very little Rex influence.
Click to expand...
2002 HOU Miller 51-613-3

2003 HOU Miller 40-355-3

2004 HOU Miller 17-178-1

2005 HOU Rivers 24-168-0

2011 SFO Davis 67-792-6

2012 SFO Davis 41-548-5

2013 SFO Davis 52-850-13

2014 SFO Davis 26-235-2

Davis had one freakishly good year, and most TEs are not going to average almost 16.5 ypr and get double digit TDs on 52 catches. As good as Savis was in 2013, he was grossly under utilized in 2014. Maybe Clay is the second coming of the good Davis.

 
David,

You ought to be worrying about protecting your HOF quarterback from the rest of the AFC east and not how much others are making contracts for.

Brady will be hitting the turf often this year..........hope he can take it!

:boxing:

 
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ScottNorwood said:
Why are people saying to spend the money on an elite player? What elite player is left on free agency? Who is this magical man?
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If the Bills were welling to step up late for Clay for the money they put up, they should have been willing to take the same money and apply it to someone who would be an impact play from the second the legal tampering window opened.

 
Don't get me wrong - I think they overpaid for Clay by a good margin. But there's really no one else out there at this point, and clearly the team is trying to do whatever they can to hit the playoffs this year - and I'm ok w/ that plan.

He's getting the same per-year as Jordan Cameron. The guaranteed money is much more, but that really only becomes an issue if he's a bust.

 
ScottNorwood said:
Don't get me wrong - I think they overpaid for Clay by a good margin. But there's really no one else out there at this point, and clearly the team is trying to do whatever they can to hit the playoffs this year - and I'm ok w/ that plan.

He's getting the same per-year as Jordan Cameron. The guaranteed money is much more, but that really only becomes an issue if he's a bust.
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The fact that it's so heavily front loaded ($12.5MM a year in year 1 and 2) also makes it a potential issue if he performs well enough to balk at taking a pay cut in Year 3 and 4. Without Years 3 and 4 being so low, then he isn't making the same per year as Jordan Cameron, he's making Jimmy Graham money right now.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
ScottNorwood said:
Don't get me wrong - I think they overpaid for Clay by a good margin. But there's really no one else out there at this point, and clearly the team is trying to do whatever they can to hit the playoffs this year - and I'm ok w/ that plan.

He's getting the same per-year as Jordan Cameron. The guaranteed money is much more, but that really only becomes an issue if he's a bust.
Click to expand...
The fact that it's so heavily front loaded ($12.5MM a year in year 1 and 2) also makes it a potential issue if he performs well enough to balk at taking a pay cut in Year 3 and 4. Without Years 3 and 4 being so low, then he isn't making the same per year as Jordan Cameron, he's making Jimmy Graham money right now.
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God forbid he plays really well his first 2 years. That would be terrible.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
ScottNorwood said:
Don't get me wrong - I think they overpaid for Clay by a good margin. But there's really no one else out there at this point, and clearly the team is trying to do whatever they can to hit the playoffs this year - and I'm ok w/ that plan.

He's getting the same per-year as Jordan Cameron. The guaranteed money is much more, but that really only becomes an issue if he's a bust.
Click to expand...
The fact that it's so heavily front loaded ($12.5MM a year in year 1 and 2) also makes it a potential issue if he performs well enough to balk at taking a pay cut in Year 3 and 4. Without Years 3 and 4 being so low, then he isn't making the same per year as Jordan Cameron, he's making Jimmy Graham money right now.
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Well, I guess he could hold out, but the Bills would have all the leverage with 3 more years on the deal. And if he was performing as a top 3 TE with huge numbers, he would certainly be worth giving an extra $1M a year to anyway, right?

 
Does anyone know what the current projections are for Buffalo's space under the cap in 2016? I'm wondering as Dareus will be the main focal point for next off-season.

 
OldMilwaukee said:
David,

You ought to be worrying about protecting your HOF quarterback from the rest of the AFC east and not how much others are making contracts for.

Brady will be hitting the turf often this year..........hope he can take it!

:boxing:
Click to expand...
:sleep:

The Pats win 12 games pretty much every year with whatever configuration of players they roll out from season to season.

People are burying them after losing Revis, but they went to three straight AFCC games before he even got there. The Pats have almost 6 months to tweak what they have, and a nucleus of BB, TB, and Gronk is about as good as it gets as a starting point.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Dr. Octopus said:
ScottNorwood said:
Don't get me wrong - I think they overpaid for Clay by a good margin. But there's really no one else out there at this point, and clearly the team is trying to do whatever they can to hit the playoffs this year - and I'm ok w/ that plan.

He's getting the same per-year as Jordan Cameron. The guaranteed money is much more, but that really only becomes an issue if he's a bust.
Click to expand...
The fact that it's so heavily front loaded ($12.5MM a year in year 1 and 2) also makes it a potential issue if he performs well enough to balk at taking a pay cut in Year 3 and 4. Without Years 3 and 4 being so low, then he isn't making the same per year as Jordan Cameron, he's making Jimmy Graham money right now.
Click to expand...
Well, I guess he could hold out, but the Bills would have all the leverage with 3 more years on the deal. And if he was performing as a top 3 TE with huge numbers, he would certainly be worth giving an extra $1M a year to anyway, right?
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Well I don't see top 3 TE ability from Clay, but if that was the case, sure. I was more looking at it as what if he performed up to the levels of his previous season high totals, while those numbers would hardly be worth paying $12.5MM a year for, he still may consider it adequate enough not to think he should have to take a drastic paycut the following season. You do raise a fair point about his lack of leverage however. He'd basically be disgruntled with little recourse I suppose.

 
Anarchy99 said:
OldMilwaukee said:
David,

You ought to be worrying about protecting your HOF quarterback from the rest of the AFC east and not how much others are making contracts for.

Brady will be hitting the turf often this year..........hope he can take it!

:boxing:
Click to expand...
:sleep: The Pats win 12 games pretty much every year with whatever configuration of players they roll out from season to season.

People are burying them after losing Revis, but they went to three straight AFCC games before he even got there. The Pats have almost 6 months to tweak what they have, and a nucleus of BB, TB, and Gronk is about as good as it gets as a starting point.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. But the bottom line of that is that lucking into a top 5 all time QB covers a lot of other flaws.

I give BB a TON of credit for always finding new ways to do things. Not just season to season, but week to week and half to half. But it all starts with the luxury of having one of the best QBs in NFl history and having totally lucked into that.

It's awfully easy to sit on a high horse and say that any team not doing things like the Patriots are not smart and not doing things the right way, when the truth is that the vast majority of their success is directly attributable to sheer luck.

So yeah, lucking into one of the best QBs in NFL history in the 7th round and being able to build around that with cheaper guys would certainly be the ideal way to build a team, but the odds of that seem sorta low. So you have to find other ways to do things.

 
Players don't hold out after getting overpaid in a front loaded contract. Bigger risk that he sucks and they have to dump him early imo.

Still, he's the guy they wanted and they made an aggressive offer. New era for our Bills.

 
OC Zed said:
Does anyone know what the current projections are for Buffalo's space under the cap in 2016? I'm wondering as Dareus will be the main focal point for next off-season.
Click to expand...
I believe they're around $20M under the projected cap for 2016 once you factor in Clay's deal. My guess is that Spotrac's projected cap is a touch low, but $20-25M is probably about right.My guess is that they free up about $10M by dumping Chris Williams next year, Manny Lawson, one of McKelvin or Graham and maybe take a look at Eric Wood's contract as well.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
Players don't hold out after getting overpaid in a front loaded contract. Bigger risk that he sucks and they have to dump him early imo.

Still, he's the guy they wanted and they made an aggressive offer. New era for our Bills.
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Has there been one this extreme? His salary will be cut by almost 2/3rds.

There's also a chance he retires early, which seems to be a trend lately.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Anarchy99 said:
OldMilwaukee said:
David,

You ought to be worrying about protecting your HOF quarterback from the rest of the AFC east and not how much others are making contracts for.

Brady will be hitting the turf often this year..........hope he can take it!

:boxing:
Click to expand...
:sleep: The Pats win 12 games pretty much every year with whatever configuration of players they roll out from season to season.

People are burying them after losing Revis, but they went to three straight AFCC games before he even got there. The Pats have almost 6 months to tweak what they have, and a nucleus of BB, TB, and Gronk is about as good as it gets as a starting point.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. But the bottom line of that is that lucking into a top 5 all time QB covers a lot of other flaws.

I give BB a TON of credit for always finding new ways to do things. Not just season to season, but week to week and half to half. But it all starts with the luxury of having one of the best QBs in NFl history and having totally lucked into that.

It's awfully easy to sit on a high horse and say that any team not doing things like the Patriots are not smart and not doing things the right way, when the truth is that the vast majority of their success is directly attributable to sheer luck.

So yeah, lucking into one of the best QBs in NFL history in the 7th round and being able to build around that with cheaper guys would certainly be the ideal way to build a team, but the odds of that seem sorta low. So you have to find other ways to do things.
Click to expand...
Brady at this point is the only tie to the other SB winning teams in NE, and the roster has been turned over many times over in that time. It's easy to say that having Brady is the reason why they have been so successful, but just having a HOF QB does not automatically mean your team is ensured of success year after year.

For example, here's a list of HOF caliber and/or SB winning QBs that played in the past 15 years. I listed the number of times he led his team to 10 wins in a season (did not include seasons that were interrupted by injury or the player was not a starter).

PManning 14 of 16 seasons

Brady 12 of 13

Favre 10 of 19

Brees 6 of 13

Rodgers 5 of 6

Flacco 5 of 7

Roethlisberger 5 of 11

EManning 4 of 10

Warner 3 of 5 (Warner had very few seasons where he came anywhere near playing a full season)

Rivers 3 of 9

Even having an elite level QB does not always yield big win totals. So much about today's NFL is cap management, drafting, and coaching . . . and those things can set teams apart from the also rans. Certainly having a frnachise QB helps a lot, but even teams with top QBs seem to throw in some down years mixed in with good years.

 
Anarchy99 said:
IvanKaramazov said:
GroveDiesel said:
So he basically has the 4th biggest TE contact. I guess I just don't get it. His best season was about 750 yards and 6 TDs. He's a much better blocker than Thomas or Graham, but not nearly the receiver.
Click to expand...
If he repeats those numbers, that would be the best season by a Bills TE in franchise history by a pretty solid margin.

His home team tendered him for a little over $7 million a year. We signed him for a little over $7.5 million a year. I don't see that extra half million as a big deal.
Click to expand...
This is the type of thinking that has made the Bills a non-playoff team for 15 years.
Click to expand...
Yes, because if there's one thing that has been the bane of Buffalo, it's been spending money hand over fist.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Anarchy99 said:
IvanKaramazov said:
GroveDiesel said:
So he basically has the 4th biggest TE contact. I guess I just don't get it. His best season was about 750 yards and 6 TDs. He's a much better blocker than Thomas or Graham, but not nearly the receiver.
Click to expand...
If he repeats those numbers, that would be the best season by a Bills TE in franchise history by a pretty solid margin.

His home team tendered him for a little over $7 million a year. We signed him for a little over $7.5 million a year. I don't see that extra half million as a big deal.
Click to expand...
This is the type of thinking that has made the Bills a non-playoff team for 15 years.
Click to expand...
Yes, because if there's one thing that has been the bane of Buffalo, it's been spending money hand over fist.
Click to expand...
The Bills are going to change the way teams do business in the NFL. Let everyone else pay big money for players that have already put up and sustained big numbers. Buffalo is going to get out in front of things by paying people top dollar before they produce. Sneaky smart.

 
Anarchy99 said:
IvanKaramazov said:
If only there was a thread where NE fans could talk about their team.
Click to expand...
Are people not discussing the Bills in the Bills thread?
Click to expand...
Mostly yeah. There also seems to be quite a bit of concern-trolling from fans of certain teams who's blueprint for success amounts to "stumble onto a HOF QB in the sixth round." Or maybe it's just me.

By all means, feel free to carry on though. I'm accustomed to having my team ignored by our AFC E rivals, so I'm not sure how to respond to the sudden interest.

 
Anarchy99 said:
GroveDiesel said:
Anarchy99 said:
OldMilwaukee said:
David,

You ought to be worrying about protecting your HOF quarterback from the rest of the AFC east and not how much others are making contracts for.

Brady will be hitting the turf often this year..........hope he can take it!

:boxing:
Click to expand...
:sleep: The Pats win 12 games pretty much every year with whatever configuration of players they roll out from season to season.

People are burying them after losing Revis, but they went to three straight AFCC games before he even got there. The Pats have almost 6 months to tweak what they have, and a nucleus of BB, TB, and Gronk is about as good as it gets as a starting point.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. But the bottom line of that is that lucking into a top 5 all time QB covers a lot of other flaws.

I give BB a TON of credit for always finding new ways to do things. Not just season to season, but week to week and half to half. But it all starts with the luxury of having one of the best QBs in NFl history and having totally lucked into that.

It's awfully easy to sit on a high horse and say that any team not doing things like the Patriots are not smart and not doing things the right way, when the truth is that the vast majority of their success is directly attributable to sheer luck.

So yeah, lucking into one of the best QBs in NFL history in the 7th round and being able to build around that with cheaper guys would certainly be the ideal way to build a team, but the odds of that seem sorta low. So you have to find other ways to do things.
Click to expand...
Brady at this point is the only tie to the other SB winning teams in NE, and the roster has been turned over many times over in that time. It's easy to say that having Brady is the reason why they have been so successful, but just having a HOF QB does not automatically mean your team is ensured of success year after year.For example, here's a list of HOF caliber and/or SB winning QBs that played in the past 15 years. I listed the number of times he led his team to 10 wins in a season (did not include seasons that were interrupted by injury or the player was not a starter).

PManning 14 of 16 seasons

Brady 12 of 13

Favre 10 of 19

Brees 6 of 13

Rodgers 5 of 6

Flacco 5 of 7

Roethlisberger 5 of 11

EManning 4 of 10

Warner 3 of 5 (Warner had very few seasons where he came anywhere near playing a full season)

Rivers 3 of 9

Even having an elite level QB does not always yield big win totals. So much about today's NFL is cap management, drafting, and coaching . . . and those things can set teams apart from the also rans. Certainly having a frnachise QB helps a lot, but even teams with top QBs seem to throw in some down years mixed in with good years.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure that "top 5 all time" is not the same definition as "HOF calibre (whatever that means) /Super Biwl winning". I mean, I think we all agree that Eli Manning isn't even on the same planet as Peyton and Brady.

It's also hilarious that you use a 15 year period, and then go back 16 years for Manning and 19 for Favre. Never mind the fact that you're ncluding Favre 's seasons in NY and MIn when he clearly wasn't the same QB.

So let's just got with my definition: Top 5 QBs all time. Using your list, Manning and Brady combined for 26 10 win seasons out of 29. I'll take that 90% chance to get 10 wins.

And your argument that Brady was the only constant from the start until now can also apply to Manning. Which is hilarious since it only confirms that the biggest influence by far on their teams' success has been.....them. They've both had different players around them and Manning has had a number of coaches. And yet, 10 wins 90% of the time.

 
humpback said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Players don't hold out after getting overpaid in a front loaded contract. Bigger risk that he sucks and they have to dump him early imo.

Still, he's the guy they wanted and they made an aggressive offer. New era for our Bills.
Click to expand...
Has there been one this extreme? His salary will be cut by almost 2/3rds.

There's also a chance he retires early, which seems to be a trend lately.
Click to expand...
I'm having a hard time remembering if (m)any NFL deals were set up like this, but it seems to fit best in a scenario where a team is trying to sign a player that had a transition tag slapped on them and wants their team to not match it.

Steve Hutchinson got 7 years, $49MM when Minnesota stole him from Seattle. I'm pretty sure that deal was heavily front-loaded.

Pegula gave Christian Ehrhoff a 10-year, $40MM deal with the Sabres that paid him $10MM and $8MM in the first two years and then went down to $4MM in year 3.

Terry doesn't mind throwing cash around. We'll have to see if the Bills are being smart or foolish. I'm sure they could wind up regretting some of these deals, but it's still fun as a fan to be on the other side for a change.

 
Brady + Belichick = Pats success

nothing else really matters, and it certainly can't compare to any other QB/coach combo in the league. Possibly best QB and best coach in league history there.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
IvanKaramazov said:
GroveDiesel said:
So he basically has the 4th biggest TE contact. I guess I just don't get it. His best season was about 750 yards and 6 TDs. He's a much better blocker than Thomas or Graham, but not nearly the receiver.
Click to expand...
If he repeats those numbers, that would be the best season by a Bills TE in franchise history by a pretty solid margin.

His home team tendered him for a little over $7 million a year. We signed him for a little over $7.5 million a year. I don't see that extra half million as a big deal.
Click to expand...
This is the type of thinking that has made the Bills a non-playoff team for 15 years. Just because MIA tendered him for $7 million doesn't mean he is a $7 million a year player. But he CERTAINLY is not a $12.5 million a year player for the next two years. For that kind of money he would not only have to put up Gronk numbers but he would need to put up TOP 3 WIDE RECEIVER numbers.

No matter how you slice it, signing Clay to the contract they did borders on insanity.

In his time with the Jets, Ryan's leading TE each season put up . . .

2009 - Keller 45-522-2

2010 - Kellet 55-687-5

2011 - Keller 65-815-5

2012 - Cumberland 29-359-3

2013 - Cumberland 26-398-4

2014 - Amaro 38-345-2

Clay has posted . . .

2011 - 16-233-3

2012 - 18-212-2

2013 - 69-759-6

2014 - 58-604-3

The Bills leading TE the past 5 seasons . . .

2010 - Stupar 12-111-0

2011 - Chandler 38-389-6

2012 - Chandler 43-571-6

2013 - Chandler 53-655-2

2014 - Chandler 47-497-3

As things stand, Clay could very easily be their fifth receiving option behind Watkins, Woods, Harvin, and McCoy. He could even fall behind Fred Jackson if he returns. Add in that the QB in Buffalo is expected to roll with Cassel at QB . . .

2008 NEP - Watson 22-209-2

2009 KCC - Pope 20-174-1

2010 KCC - Moeaki 47-556-3

2011 KCC - Pope 24-247-1

2012 KCC - Moeaki 33-453-1

2013 MIN - Carlson 32-344-1

2014 MIN - Rudolph 24-231-2

I don't see how people can look at the track record of the parties involved and walk away impressed that Clay is worth $25 million for the next two years. As I see it, if he comes remotely close to being worth that amount of money (which I don't think happens), then there will be very little chance he plays out the contract without demanding a raise or holding out. If he isn't worth that kind of money (which I don't think he will be), the Bills may not even want to pay him the remaining years.

I still don't buy in to the Bills effectively swapping out Chandler for Clay for WAY more money. (We still don't know what NE paid for Chandler, but I am guessing it will be substantially less than Clay got). The Bills had much more pressing areas of need than going out and spending huge money for a TE. This move makes very little sense, even in the best of potential outcomes.
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Thank you. I think this is a bad contract. I am happy the Dolphins did not match. He is not a 12.5 a million for the next two years player.

No freaking way.

 
Todem said:
Thank you. I think this is a bad contract. I am happy the Dolphins did not match. He is not a 12.5 a million for the next two years player.

No freaking way.
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as long as he plays for 3-5 years, I'm not sure why his salary over the next two years matters that much. people getting way too hung up on that here.

yes, the Dolphins should not match it. but they also should not have given the deal to Suh that they did. the Bills set it up this way intentionally to get Miami to let him walk.

 
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Todem said:
Thank you. I think this is a bad contract. I am happy the Dolphins did not match. He is not a 12.5 a million for the next two years player.


No freaking way.
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Looking only at Clay's past and projected receiving stats gives an incomplete picture of his worth. He is considered both a good blocking and receiving tight end which is an exceptionally rare commodity in the NFL these days (sort of akin to the three-down LB). That frees up the play calling immensely and presents defensive matchup opportunities for the offense.

And, again, this is beyond a two-year deal. If Clay plays through the life of the contract (which I'm sure the Bills are intending upon), then the overall amount will be in line with other second tier TEs in the league over that time. If he doesn't get past Year 2, then, yes, it would be a bad pickup for the Bills.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
Todem said:
Thank you. I think this is a bad contract. I am happy the Dolphins did not match. He is not a 12.5 a million for the next two years player.

No freaking way.
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as long as he plays for 3-5 years, I'm not sure why his salary over the next two years matters that much. people getting way too hung up on that here.

yes, the Dolphins should not match it. but they also should not have given the deal to Suh that they did. the Bills set it up this way intentionally to get Miami to let him walk.
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Several years ago, I reconciled myself to the fact that until the Bills start winning consistently, every move we make is going to be stupid. For example, we still get grief for trading up to get Watkins because reasons.

 
Todem said:
Anarchy99 said:
IvanKaramazov said:
GroveDiesel said:
So he basically has the 4th biggest TE contact. I guess I just don't get it. His best season was about 750 yards and 6 TDs. He's a much better blocker than Thomas or Graham, but not nearly the receiver.
Click to expand...
If he repeats those numbers, that would be the best season by a Bills TE in franchise history by a pretty solid margin.

His home team tendered him for a little over $7 million a year. We signed him for a little over $7.5 million a year. I don't see that extra half million as a big deal.
Click to expand...
This is the type of thinking that has made the Bills a non-playoff team for 15 years. Just because MIA tendered him for $7 million doesn't mean he is a $7 million a year player. But he CERTAINLY is not a $12.5 million a year player for the next two years. For that kind of money he would not only have to put up Gronk numbers but he would need to put up TOP 3 WIDE RECEIVER numbers.No matter how you slice it, signing Clay to the contract they did borders on insanity.

In his time with the Jets, Ryan's leading TE each season put up . . .

2009 - Keller 45-522-2

2010 - Kellet 55-687-5

2011 - Keller 65-815-5

2012 - Cumberland 29-359-3

2013 - Cumberland 26-398-4

2014 - Amaro 38-345-2

Clay has posted . . .

2011 - 16-233-3

2012 - 18-212-2

2013 - 69-759-6

2014 - 58-604-3

The Bills leading TE the past 5 seasons . . .

2010 - Stupar 12-111-0

2011 - Chandler 38-389-6

2012 - Chandler 43-571-6

2013 - Chandler 53-655-2

2014 - Chandler 47-497-3

As things stand, Clay could very easily be their fifth receiving option behind Watkins, Woods, Harvin, and McCoy. He could even fall behind Fred Jackson if he returns. Add in that the QB in Buffalo is expected to roll with Cassel at QB . . .

2008 NEP - Watson 22-209-2

2009 KCC - Pope 20-174-1

2010 KCC - Moeaki 47-556-3

2011 KCC - Pope 24-247-1

2012 KCC - Moeaki 33-453-1

2013 MIN - Carlson 32-344-1

2014 MIN - Rudolph 24-231-2

I don't see how people can look at the track record of the parties involved and walk away impressed that Clay is worth $25 million for the next two years. As I see it, if he comes remotely close to being worth that amount of money (which I don't think happens), then there will be very little chance he plays out the contract without demanding a raise or holding out. If he isn't worth that kind of money (which I don't think he will be), the Bills may not even want to pay him the remaining years.

I still don't buy in to the Bills effectively swapping out Chandler for Clay for WAY more money. (We still don't know what NE paid for Chandler, but I am guessing it will be substantially less than Clay got). The Bills had much more pressing areas of need than going out and spending huge money for a TE. This move makes very little sense, even in the best of potential outcomes.
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Thank you. I think this is a bad contract. I am happy the Dolphins did not match. He is not a 12.5 a million for the next two years player.No freaking way.
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But if his contract was structured with the big money at the end, that would then be a good contract?

I don't know. I do think I'd rather be paying $7.5M a year to a TE that has graded out higher the last 2 years than Jordan Cameron, has played played in about 25% more games over the last 3 years, and doesn't have major concussion concerns. It's probably a slight overpay for both of them, but if I'm going to overpay, I think I'd rather give the money to a better all around guy who has a better chance of being on the field.

 
Kept Fred and spending to try and make playoffs. I'm happy.

At the end of the day I don't care about anything but making playoffs. It's been a long time. When (IF) the Bills get a franchise QB then we can worry about it a little more.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Anarchy99 said:
OldMilwaukee said:
David,

You ought to be worrying about protecting your HOF quarterback from the rest of the AFC east and not how much others are making contracts for.

Brady will be hitting the turf often this year..........hope he can take it!

:boxing:
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:sleep: The Pats win 12 games pretty much every year with whatever configuration of players they roll out from season to season.

People are burying them after losing Revis, but they went to three straight AFCC games before he even got there. The Pats have almost 6 months to tweak what they have, and a nucleus of BB, TB, and Gronk is about as good as it gets as a starting point.
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Absolutely. But the bottom line of that is that lucking into a top 5 all time QB covers a lot of other flaws.

I give BB a TON of credit for always finding new ways to do things. Not just season to season, but week to week and half to half. But it all starts with the luxury of having one of the best QBs in NFl history and having totally lucked into that.

It's awfully easy to sit on a high horse and say that any team not doing things like the Patriots are not smart and not doing things the right way, when the truth is that the vast majority of their success is directly attributable to sheer luck.

So yeah, lucking into one of the best QBs in NFL history in the 7th round and being able to build around that with cheaper guys would certainly be the ideal way to build a team, but the odds of that seem sorta low. So you have to find other ways to do things.
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:lmao: :lmao:

butthurtalo bills

 
Maybe this has been covered.....but can a Bill's insider explain what they are doing? They have added many passing options this offseason (Harvin, Cameron, Clay). I cannot figure why those guys want to come play here when this is almost guaranteed to be a run heavy team.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Maybe this has been covered.....but can a Bill's insider explain what they are doing? They have added many passing options this offseason (Harvin, Cameron, Clay). I cannot figure why those guys want to come play here when this is almost guaranteed to be a run heavy team.
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It's the orgy method of building a contender. Just grab anything that looks good.

 
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