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Anyone not like Eddie Lacy? (2 Viewers)

KP actually saved me a lot of time deconstructing the foolishness of that article. In the end it doesn't matter - it's just another guy's opinion. However, if he didn't think Lacy was talented or likely to succeed in the NFL based on his personal observation/scouting the author should just say that. The statistical case he builds is feeble. (ONE MONTH OLDER? RED FLAG!)

Ultimately what we care about here is fantasy production. Given that, it comes down to how many carries you project for Lacy. Coffee had 80, Ingram has had 120 and 160. If you project Lacy in those ranges then obviously he isn't worth a redraft pick at all. Since the Packers just cut Alex Green and lost DuJuan Harris, there should be plenty of carries for Lacy, at least more than enough to make the comparisons to Coffee/Ingram obsolete. I project him for around 200.

Finally, there are a lot of reasons why Richardson was and is a better pro prospect, and in fantasy he has high value as a receiver. He also missed 2012 preseason with a knee injury/minor surgery, broke two ribs during the season and ended the season with a sprained ankle. He had 3.6 YPC behind an average OL. However you want to spin Richardson's rookie year, he was not as good a player in his first NFL season as he was at Alabama. So maybe we can give he and Lacy more than one and zero NFL seasons' worth of experience, respectively, without resorting to Glen Coffee comparisons.

 
I agree the age is not something I think one should consider a big deal or red flag as ReHat puts it.

However I think his point about this is that RB on the same team with similar athletic ability and skills, that the more experienced player should be able to hold off the less experienced one unless the less experienced player is much more talented in terms of athletic ability and skill.

So the point at least to me is that when Lacy had his chance to be the main RB he still gave up a lot of carries to younger RB on the roster who were not necessarily more talented than Lacy is.

Part of this may have been due to Lacy's toe injury, the coaching staff limiting him because of that, or it could be for a lot of other reasons. I do not follow college football. I also do not put much stock into college stats/performance.

I still think it is interesting to make a comparison between RB on the same team in similar situations, as that is more of an apples to apples type of comparison.

 
How many of you have scooped up Jonathan Franklin? Guy is so underrated right now and will be starting before too long. The only downside for that is he plays for Green Bay.

 
Mario Kart said:
How many of you have scooped up Jonathan Franklin? Guy is so underrated right now and will be starting before too long. The only downside for that is he plays for Green Bay.
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Why do you say that? I saw him a lot at UCLA and think he has a lot of talent but every single report has indicated that he is having a ton of trouble picking up the pro game. I am sure he will figure it out eventually but there is nothing to indicate he will be in line for starter reps even if Eddie Lacy falls flat on his face.

 
Chaka said:
Mario Kart said:
How many of you have scooped up Jonathan Franklin? Guy is so underrated right now and will be starting before too long. The only downside for that is he plays for Green Bay.
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Why do you say that? I saw him a lot at UCLA and think he has a lot of talent but every single report has indicated that he is having a ton of trouble picking up the pro game. I am sure he will figure it out eventually but there is nothing to indicate he will be in line for starter reps even if Eddie Lacy falls flat on his face.
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I agree. Even an article in today's JS implied as such:

"And Green Bay wasn't going to give up on the fourth-round pick Johnathan Franklin after one summer"

 
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Biabreakable said:
Biabreakable said:
However I think his point about this is that RB on the same team with similar athletic ability and skills, that the more experienced player should be able to hold off the less experienced one unless the less experienced player is much more talented in terms of athletic ability and skill.
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Why? If you're a college coach with more power than anyone else at the university, who can revoke anyone's scholarship at will, and you work at one of the most desirable places to play, why wouldn't you let a younger player who is only 1% better take the reins? The coach has no financial, salary cap, or political pressures to care. In fact, if anything wouldn't it make a great recruiting pitch for the next crop of unpaid laborers?

I'm not really making a point about Lacy because I don't even watch much college football. I just don't think that statement is obviously true.

 
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Chaka said:
Mario Kart said:
How many of you have scooped up Jonathan Franklin? Guy is so underrated right now and will be starting before too long. The only downside for that is he plays for Green Bay.
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Why do you say that? I saw him a lot at UCLA and think he has a lot of talent but every single report has indicated that he is having a ton of trouble picking up the pro game. I am sure he will figure it out eventually but there is nothing to indicate he will be in line for starter reps even if Eddie Lacy falls flat on his face.
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 Sure, McCarthy's offense is easy to pick up if you are a bruiser runner. Know what hole to hit, give a second option and go. Lacy will be lucky to see 20 targets the whole year. Franklin has more of the offense to pick up in the same amount of time but when he does, he will be similar to Ahman Green. Maybe not in production at first but he will make that progress.

My friends who still live in the Green Bay area go to most of the practices and listen to all the local Packers news, radio and such. I don't anymore but back in the day I was able to get Green, Grant cheap for those good years... but I lived up there during those years too.

 
Jesus, this Franklin talk is annoying. Reminds me of the people pimping Kevin Smith last year.

Barring injury this is Lacy's job. #### and move on already.

 
Eminence said:
Jesus, this Franklin talk is annoying. Reminds me of the people pimping Kevin Smith last year.

Barring injury this is Lacy's job. #### and move on already.
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It's worse than that. Kevin Smith had a LOT more going for him last season. He was the starter going into week 1.

Franklin isn't close to relevant right now.

 
Johnny Blood said:
Biabreakable said:
Biabreakable said:
However I think his point about this is that RB on the same team with similar athletic ability and skills, that the more experienced player should be able to hold off the less experienced one unless the less experienced player is much more talented in terms of athletic ability and skill.
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Why? If you're a college coach with more power than anyone else at the university, who can revoke anyone's scholarship at will, and you work at one of the most desirable places to play, why wouldn't you let a younger player who is only 1% better take the reins? The coach has no financial, salary cap, or political pressures to care. In fact, if anything wouldn't it make a great recruiting pitch for the next crop of unpaid laborers?

I'm not really making a point about Lacy because I don't even watch much college football. I just don't think that statement is obviously true.
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Well coaches will play the players who help them win.

So Lacy did not help Alabama win any more than the rest of the RB they had then.

The point is that Ingram and Richardson did give them a better chance to win than Lacy or Coffee. Therefore are more talented players.

This may or may not be true. Just saying what I get out of the comparison. There may be other factors such as the injury or other things as part of the reason also. The data doesn't tell the whole story by any means. I just thought it was interesting to consider as a way of trying to gauge the relative talent level of the player.

I also want to make clear, I have Lacy ranked as the 3rd best rookie RB from this draft class. I think he is a good player. I also think he is in a better situation than Ingram has been with the Saints, at least as far as getting a full workload is concerned. I also do not consider Franklin to be much of a threat to him in terms of workload.

Most of my disagreement with people is about just how good Lacy actually is as a RB. People seem to have no problem comparing him to 1st round RB such as Duece McCallister, Cedric Benson and other RB who I think were much more talented RB prospects than Lacy is.

To try to illustrate the point I am trying to make here. What I am questioning. Take Stevan Ridley as an example. Not to bash Ridley but I do not consider him a top level RB. All other things being somewhat equal between Green Bay and New England, elite Qb and all the rest, except for their offensive lines.

The Patriots have a very good offensive line and a elite QB. So Ridley does not need to be a top RB to be successful in this situation to be a very useful FF player. Green Bay has the elite QB but not the offensive line. Is that going to be enough for Lacy to put up Ridley like numbers? Which I assume by people drafting Lacy in the 3rd to 4th round is how they expect him to perform.

Ridley was a 3rd round pick and Lacy was not far from being a 3rd round pick. But does Green Bay have the offensive line that Ridley has? I do not think so. I am just not sure if it will matter. Aaron Rodgers might be enough. So this is what I will be watching. To see how that develops. I think it is a good way to look at how much does an offensive line matter for RB performance.

 
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sho nuff said:
Chaka said:
sho nuff said:
Chaka said:
And he scored four each of the previous two years so what's your point? You guaranteeing that Kuhn's ceiling is vulturing only one rushing TD when he has proven capable of doing otherwise?


And since McCarthy came on board only one time did the beat the league average for rushing TDs with 20 in 2009 (a number bolstered by 5 from Aaron Rodgers) and that season Grant led the team with 11 rushing TDs.

2006 9 TDs - 5 by Ahman Green, 3 vultured by other RBs

2007 13 TDs - 8 by Ryan Grant, 5 vultured by other RBs

2008 11 TDs - 4 by Ryan Grant, 4 by Rodgers and 3 vultured by other RBs

2009 20 TDs - 11 by Ryan Grant, 5 by Rodgers and 4 vultured by other RBs

2010 11 TDs - 4 by John Kuhn, 4 by Rodgers and 3 from Brandon Jackson

2011 11 TDs - 4 by John Kuhn, 3 by Rodgers, 2 from Grant, 1 from Starks and 1 from Matt Flynn

2012 9 TDs - 2 from Rodgers, Ryan Grant & DuJuan Harris, 1 from Kuhn, Starks and Cedric Benson

So what is Lacy's TD upside really?
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My point is that Kuhn is not a real threat. Watching him run last year near the GL showed that.

For a bit he was not even certain to make the final roster.

Lacy's upside...he is more talented than every one of those RBs you just listed after naming Ahman Green.

What McCarthy has done is important...its why I still limit my prediction of Lacy to 1000/10.

But then again...when has McCarthy had a RB like Lacy...he had Grant...and used him quite a bit didn't he?
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He had Deuce McAllister from '01-04 in New Orleans and he got him over 9 TDs one time.

That's two RBs over 9 TDs since 2001
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Deuce

01 - rookie and a kick returner more than an RB...but glad you counted him as something that year. He had 16 carries.

02 - 13 TDs in 15 games. Added 3 receiving TDs too...so 16 total in 15 games.

03 - 8 TDs

04 - 9 TDs...in 14 games.

Are we going to complain that 9TDs is a bad thing for Lacy to get?

Its not like Im predicting huge numbers for him.

10 TDs...not a huge prediction.
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Excellent post.

Thank you for showing relevant facts and not cherry picked carefully selected stats designed to support a pre-determined conclusion

 
Chicago Hooligan said:
KP actually saved me a lot of time deconstructing the foolishness of that article. In the end it doesn't matter - it's just another guy's opinion. However, if he didn't think Lacy was talented or likely to succeed in the NFL based on his personal observation/scouting the author should just say that. The statistical case he builds is feeble. (ONE MONTH OLDER? RED FLAG!)
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Thanks man. I took a lot of time looking at that article and pointing out how much of it was bogus. I have no clue why Biabreakable would put me on ignore for that, if anything I was being the objective one where this guy who wrote the article tried to make it seem like Lacy is worse than these other Bama RB's, but when you look at it he provided very little as to why that is the case. That DR rating is crapola.

I dont think Lacy is a physical specimen like Trent, or destined to be a Top 5 RB, but I do think he is in not only one of the best offenses to succeed, but situations to succeed based on the RBs behind him as well.

 
To answer the original question of the thread...going out on a limb and saying the Biak does not like Eddie Lacy.

 
Leonidas said:
sho nuff said:
Chaka said:
sho nuff said:
Chaka said:
And he scored four each of the previous two years so what's your point? You guaranteeing that Kuhn's ceiling is vulturing only one rushing TD when he has proven capable of doing otherwise?


And since McCarthy came on board only one time did the beat the league average for rushing TDs with 20 in 2009 (a number bolstered by 5 from Aaron Rodgers) and that season Grant led the team with 11 rushing TDs.

2006 9 TDs - 5 by Ahman Green, 3 vultured by other RBs

2007 13 TDs - 8 by Ryan Grant, 5 vultured by other RBs

2008 11 TDs - 4 by Ryan Grant, 4 by Rodgers and 3 vultured by other RBs

2009 20 TDs - 11 by Ryan Grant, 5 by Rodgers and 4 vultured by other RBs

2010 11 TDs - 4 by John Kuhn, 4 by Rodgers and 3 from Brandon Jackson

2011 11 TDs - 4 by John Kuhn, 3 by Rodgers, 2 from Grant, 1 from Starks and 1 from Matt Flynn

2012 9 TDs - 2 from Rodgers, Ryan Grant & DuJuan Harris, 1 from Kuhn, Starks and Cedric Benson

So what is Lacy's TD upside really?
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My point is that Kuhn is not a real threat. Watching him run last year near the GL showed that.

For a bit he was not even certain to make the final roster.

Lacy's upside...he is more talented than every one of those RBs you just listed after naming Ahman Green.

What McCarthy has done is important...its why I still limit my prediction of Lacy to 1000/10.

But then again...when has McCarthy had a RB like Lacy...he had Grant...and used him quite a bit didn't he?
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He had Deuce McAllister from '01-04 in New Orleans and he got him over 9 TDs one time.

That's two RBs over 9 TDs since 2001
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Deuce

01 - rookie and a kick returner more than an RB...but glad you counted him as something that year. He had 16 carries.

02 - 13 TDs in 15 games. Added 3 receiving TDs too...so 16 total in 15 games.

03 - 8 TDs

04 - 9 TDs...in 14 games.

Are we going to complain that 9TDs is a bad thing for Lacy to get?

Its not like Im predicting huge numbers for him.

10 TDs...not a huge prediction.
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Excellent post.

Thank you for showing relevant facts and not cherry picked carefully selected stats designed to support a pre-determined conclusion
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How is showing all of the actual rushing TD breakdown for all Mike McCarthy coached Green Bay teams cherry picking?

The numbers hold if you add his years in New Orleans and season in San Francisco. You should expect Green Bay to pass for about 66% of their TDs this year and you should expect a handful of the rushing TDs to go to players other than their primary running back.

Speaking of the primary running back has anyone mentioned that James Starks is listed as the #1 RB on the Packers official website?

 
bostonfred said:
sho nuff said:
To answer the original question of the thread...going out on a limb and saying the Biak does not like Eddie Lacy.
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Wow. I honestly never made the biakabatuka connection with biabreakables name until you said that.
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sho nuff gets it.

RedHat is a Vikings fan as I am a Vikings fan. We cannot like this guy. We're ax grinding a bit here.

Look at it this way. If this is all we can come up with Lacy is doing pretty well. ;)

I am a huge fan of Tshimsnga Biakabutuka. He is one of the 1st rookie picks I made in dynasty. I had such high hopes for him and the new expansion Carolina Panthers at that time. I really think he could have been a great NFL RB. Unfortunate his injuries. This taught me a lesson about being too optimistic about a rookie RB. No matter how good they look. Stuff happens.

 
Chicago Hooligan said:
Chaka said:
Speaking of the primary running back has anyone mentioned that James Starks is listed as the #1 RB on the Packers official website?
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James Starks would get injured clicking on that link.
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That's nice but apparently the Packers have him listed as the starter and they have enough confidence in him that even after losing DuJuan Harris they still cut Alex Green leaving Starks, Lacy, Kuhn and Franklin as the backbone of the running game. This despite the fact that Kuhn is mediocre and every report indicates Franklin has been overwhelmed so far.

So until he does get hurt Starks probably should not be discounted.

 
Harris, Green, and Franklin have all been removed from the picture but I guess some people will remain shook unless Lacy is the sole RB on the roster.

It all comes down to your projections.

 
Chaka said:
Chicago Hooligan said:
Chaka said:
Speaking of the primary running back has anyone mentioned that James Starks is listed as the #1 RB on the Packers official website?
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James Starks would get injured clicking on that link.
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That's nice but apparently the Packers have him listed as the starter and they have enough confidence in him that even after losing DuJuan Harris they still cut Alex Green leaving Starks, Lacy, Kuhn and Franklin as the backbone of the running game. This despite the fact that Kuhn is mediocre and every report indicates Franklin has been overwhelmed so far.

So until he does get hurt Starks probably should not be discounted.
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Starks being listed #1 on the depth chart is pretty much the equivalent of Belichick saying Brady is questionable

 
Wait, Starks is listed #1 on the depth chart? Either the intern that reports the depth chart needs to be fired or they are using some type of rolling waiver system here. This is Rotoworld's last report on him (yes, it was almost 2 weeks ago):

James Starks has slipped to fifth on the Packers' tailback depth chart.

In this week's practices, he's ahead of only UDFA Angelo Pease. Starks started Green Bay's preseason opener, but fumbled last week against the Rams and that gave the coaching staff more than enough incentive to drop Starks down the totem pole. He's likely to either be traded or waived ahead of final cuts. Aug 21 - 8:04 AM
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In my 1st year re-draft keeper league, we had a rookie draft round to start things off. I had the 3rd pick. Ended up with Lacy after Hopkins and Ball went before him. I was pumped!

 
MM is giving a vet the opening day start over a rookie and its a big story? This is a non story. lacy will come in the game after a few plays or the first series and Starks will take his spot on the bench to spell the rook. Draft accordingly...

 
Shutout said:
MAC_32 said:
zadok said:
Officially regretting passing on him for Montee Ball in my rookie draft 2 months back...

IMO he is now a strong RB2 worth taking in the 20s.
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Way too early for this. Lacy may be more valuable this year, but there's a reason you picked Ball first 2 months ago - long term, talent wins out.
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Which is why he regrets it.

Let's all be honest here. A year ago, it was clear that, of the RBs that were to come out, It was Lacy and Lattimore that people talked about. There were some people that liked Michael's talent but had the concerns. But for the most part, it was these top two and the Balls and Bells and Stacys of the world weren't in the "talent" discussion.

But people got cute as we became inundated with media info. The concerns about this and that and the reported measureable and this guy looked fat, this guy looked slow, this situaiton is this and that, there mUST be a reason this team did this...Oh MY GOD, he fell to the 2nd round,etc, etc.

But now...when we have seen these guys on the field, what do our eyeballs tell us? Of all the rookies that have played in pre-season, honestly, Michael looks awesome and then Lacy. Well, Lacy has opportunity now and Michael doesn't so there's that. But between Lacy and Ball, it is very clear that all the question marks and concerns are now in the Ball owners' hands, not Lacy's.
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The best thing you can do if you draft rookies is not read any NFL news from the end of the national championship game to the end of your rookie draft.

The combine has told us that guys like Jimmy Clausen, Brady Quinn, David Carr, Blaine Gabbert, and Kylle Boller are solid, pro-ready passers. It's really just a bunch of measurables that have some impact on how a player plays, but not much really. It happens every year. People let combine numbers contradict what they have seen, in front of their faces, for years. Lacy should outperform all the backs taken ahead of him on this class with the possible exception of Bernard. Lots of NFL teams are going to regret passing on him for years to come.

 
Clifford said:
Shutout said:
MAC_32 said:
zadok said:
Officially regretting passing on him for Montee Ball in my rookie draft 2 months back...

IMO he is now a strong RB2 worth taking in the 20s.
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Way too early for this. Lacy may be more valuable this year, but there's a reason you picked Ball first 2 months ago - long term, talent wins out.
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Which is why he regrets it.

Let's all be honest here. A year ago, it was clear that, of the RBs that were to come out, It was Lacy and Lattimore that people talked about. There were some people that liked Michael's talent but had the concerns. But for the most part, it was these top two and the Balls and Bells and Stacys of the world weren't in the "talent" discussion.

But people got cute as we became inundated with media info. The concerns about this and that and the reported measureable and this guy looked fat, this guy looked slow, this situaiton is this and that, there mUST be a reason this team did this...Oh MY GOD, he fell to the 2nd round,etc, etc.

But now...when we have seen these guys on the field, what do our eyeballs tell us? Of all the rookies that have played in pre-season, honestly, Michael looks awesome and then Lacy. Well, Lacy has opportunity now and Michael doesn't so there's that. But between Lacy and Ball, it is very clear that all the question marks and concerns are now in the Ball owners' hands, not Lacy's.
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The best thing you can do if you draft rookies is not read any NFL news from the end of the national championship game to the end of your rookie draft.

The combine has told us that guys like Jimmy Clausen, Brady Quinn, David Carr, Blaine Gabbert, and Kylle Boller are solid, pro-ready passers. It's really just a bunch of measurables that have some impact on how a player plays, but not much really. It happens every year. People let combine numbers contradict what they have seen, in front of their faces, for years. Lacy should outperform all the backs taken ahead of him on this class with the possible exception of Bernard. Lots of NFL teams are going to regret passing on him for years to come.
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For this year I wouldn't doubt he tops Bernard. They seem very willing to let the RBBC play out in Cincy. Other teams it's more of a coachspeak, like Starks getting the "start" over Lacy. I don't see much re-draft appeal for Gio given his ADP. He's the most expensive half-time-handcuff type player this year. I think you could get the same "redraft production with handcuff upside" by getting Pierce in the 9th.

 
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In a backfield that has very little talent, Lacy is going to dominate snaps. I think 600 is his floor and he could if he emerges as a difference making weapon for GB top 725.

Why are snaps important? Because a #1 NFL RB generally touches the ball at a minimum, 40% of the times he's on the field. Some touch it 50%+. So at a minimum, Lacy is likely to tally 240 touches this season. But 300 is not out of the question. And 300 touch RB's are becoming rarer and rarer in todays NFL (there were 10 in 2012) and all with the exception of BJGE were legit RB1's.

From an opportunity standpoint, it's not just that he'll get it, it's that he'll get it in an offense that most teams will allow him to get his as they try and defend Rodgers/Cobb/Jones/Nelson/Finley. All in all, I think folks are drastically underrating Lacy's floor/ceiling in 2013.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
In a backfield that has very little talent, Lacy is going to dominate snaps. I think 600 is his floor and he could if he emerges as a difference making weapon for GB top 725.

Why are snaps important? Because a #1 NFL RB generally touches the ball at a minimum, 40% of the times he's on the field. Some touch it 50%+. So at a minimum, Lacy is likely to tally 240 touches this season. But 300 is not out of the question. And 300 touch RB's are becoming rarer and rarer in todays NFL (there were 10 in 2012) and all with the exception of BJGE were legit RB1's.

From an opportunity standpoint, it's not just that he'll get it, it's that he'll get it in an offense that most teams will allow him to get his as they try and defend Rodgers/Cobb/Jones/Nelson/Finley. All in all, I think folks are drastically underrating Lacy's floor/ceiling in 2013.
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I think most people get that he has a high ceiling, but I disagree about his floor. I have seen plenty of RBs that looked very talented in college fail in good NFL situations.

 
northwoods said:
MM is giving a vet the opening day start over a rookie and its a big story? This is a non story. lacy will come in the game after a few plays or the first series and Starks will take his spot on the bench to spell the rook. Draft accordingly...
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Why would you say this with such confidence? Lacy looked like he had a lot of potential v the Rams in preseason then he proceeded to put up -4 yards during the rest of the preseason. If Lacy struggles I don't see why Starks wouldn't get starter reps.

 
Chaka said:
northwoods said:
MM is giving a vet the opening day start over a rookie and its a big story? This is a non story. lacy will come in the game after a few plays or the first series and Starks will take his spot on the bench to spell the rook. Draft accordingly...
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Why would you say this with such confidence? Lacy looked like he had a lot of potential v the Rams in preseason then he proceeded to put up -4 yards during the rest of the preseason. If Lacy struggles I don't see why Starks wouldn't get starter reps.
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Starks is a token start ... anyone who thinks otherwise is oblivious.

The only reason I'm not starting Lacy as RB2 or flex this week is because they play the 49ers. It's going to take some growing pains (and probably losses) trying to establish the running game, but I'd rather be 10-6 and make it in on a wildcard with a working running game than 15-1 without a running game come playoff time. I've seen the latter already and the Pack got toasted in the divisional round (at home, nonetheless). I think MM is going to be stubborn with the running game and stay with a 45% run ratio until November to get it working. If it ain't working by then, or Lacy gets hurt, back to the 2011 Packers we go.

 
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I think Ridley is a good comp for Lacy, in terms of talent, opportunity based on offense and fantasy production. Though Lacy reminded me of Steven Jackson when he ran through that St. Louis defense

 
Monsters of the Midway said:
I think Ridley is a good comp for Lacy, in terms of talent, opportunity based on offense and fantasy production. Though Lacy reminded me of Steven Jackson when he ran through that St. Louis defense
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Ridley also has a top 3 offensive line =/

If the Packers could get Lacy to the 2nd level without being touched, Lacy would look pretty damn good, too.

 
meyerj31 said:
Chaka said:
northwoods said:
MM is giving a vet the opening day start over a rookie and its a big story? This is a non story. lacy will come in the game after a few plays or the first series and Starks will take his spot on the bench to spell the rook. Draft accordingly...
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Why would you say this with such confidence? Lacy looked like he had a lot of potential v the Rams in preseason then he proceeded to put up -4 yards during the rest of the preseason. If Lacy struggles I don't see why Starks wouldn't get starter reps.
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Starks is a token start ... anyone who thinks otherwise is oblivious.

The only reason I'm not starting Lacy as RB2 or flex this week is because they play the 49ers. It's going to take some growing pains (and probably losses) trying to establish the running game, but I'd rather be 10-6 and make it in on a wildcard with a working running game than 15-1 without a running game come playoff time. I've seen the latter already and the Pack got toasted in the divisional round (at home, nonetheless). I think MM is going to be stubborn with the running game and stay with a 45% run ratio until November to get it working. If it ain't working by then, or Lacy gets hurt, back to the 2011 Packers we go.
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I agree on paper that Lacy looks like a better back but he did next to nothing during the exhibition games so I am going to be a little cautious in my assessment until I see something during the real games. So while it may be a token start like you believe the truth is that you have no idea either and you are just stating your opinion as if it were fact. I hope you are correct but far stranger things have happened than an average veteran RB keeping a moderately regarded rookie on the bench.

 
Chaka said:
meyerj31 said:
Chaka said:
northwoods said:
MM is giving a vet the opening day start over a rookie and its a big story? This is a non story. lacy will come in the game after a few plays or the first series and Starks will take his spot on the bench to spell the rook. Draft accordingly...
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Why would you say this with such confidence? Lacy looked like he had a lot of potential v the Rams in preseason then he proceeded to put up -4 yards during the rest of the preseason. If Lacy struggles I don't see why Starks wouldn't get starter reps.
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Starks is a token start ... anyone who thinks otherwise is oblivious.

The only reason I'm not starting Lacy as RB2 or flex this week is because they play the 49ers. It's going to take some growing pains (and probably losses) trying to establish the running game, but I'd rather be 10-6 and make it in on a wildcard with a working running game than 15-1 without a running game come playoff time. I've seen the latter already and the Pack got toasted in the divisional round (at home, nonetheless). I think MM is going to be stubborn with the running game and stay with a 45% run ratio until November to get it working. If it ain't working by then, or Lacy gets hurt, back to the 2011 Packers we go.
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I agree on paper that Lacy looks like a better back but he did next to nothing during the exhibition games so I am going to be a little cautious in my assessment until I see something during the real games. So while it may be a token start like you believe the truth is that you have no idea either and you are just stating your opinion as if it were fact. I hope you are correct but far stranger things have happened than an average veteran RB keeping a moderately regarded rookie on the bench.
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Lacy looked good in one preseason game then bad in another. In the good one he was playing with Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense against the good, not great StL D. In the bad game he was playing with Graham Harrell and the backup offensive line against possibly the best defense in the leagues starters who were stacking the box vs a horrible backup QB.

It's why you can't trust preseason whatsoever. But if I was going to trust any portion it wouldn't be what any part of the GB second team offense did vs the Seattle first team defense.

I'm not saying Lacy is a star and a week 1 must start, but he didn't look bad in exhibition. He looked bad in only 1 quarter of the preseason when the game was rigged so far in the extreme against him. Walter Payton would have looked like he did getting hit behind the line every handoff. The other time we saw him (first team offense vs a respectable first team defense) he looked good. Take out the Seattle game and then say he looked bad this preseason...

 
Chaka said:
Leonidas said:
sho nuff said:
Chaka said:
sho nuff said:
Chaka said:
And he scored four each of the previous two years so what's your point? You guaranteeing that Kuhn's ceiling is vulturing only one rushing TD when he has proven capable of doing otherwise?


And since McCarthy came on board only one time did the beat the league average for rushing TDs with 20 in 2009 (a number bolstered by 5 from Aaron Rodgers) and that season Grant led the team with 11 rushing TDs.

2006 9 TDs - 5 by Ahman Green, 3 vultured by other RBs

2007 13 TDs - 8 by Ryan Grant, 5 vultured by other RBs

2008 11 TDs - 4 by Ryan Grant, 4 by Rodgers and 3 vultured by other RBs

2009 20 TDs - 11 by Ryan Grant, 5 by Rodgers and 4 vultured by other RBs

2010 11 TDs - 4 by John Kuhn, 4 by Rodgers and 3 from Brandon Jackson

2011 11 TDs - 4 by John Kuhn, 3 by Rodgers, 2 from Grant, 1 from Starks and 1 from Matt Flynn

2012 9 TDs - 2 from Rodgers, Ryan Grant & DuJuan Harris, 1 from Kuhn, Starks and Cedric Benson

So what is Lacy's TD upside really?
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My point is that Kuhn is not a real threat. Watching him run last year near the GL showed that.

For a bit he was not even certain to make the final roster.

Lacy's upside...he is more talented than every one of those RBs you just listed after naming Ahman Green.

What McCarthy has done is important...its why I still limit my prediction of Lacy to 1000/10.

But then again...when has McCarthy had a RB like Lacy...he had Grant...and used him quite a bit didn't he?
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He had Deuce McAllister from '01-04 in New Orleans and he got him over 9 TDs one time.

That's two RBs over 9 TDs since 2001
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Deuce

01 - rookie and a kick returner more than an RB...but glad you counted him as something that year. He had 16 carries.

02 - 13 TDs in 15 games. Added 3 receiving TDs too...so 16 total in 15 games.

03 - 8 TDs

04 - 9 TDs...in 14 games.

Are we going to complain that 9TDs is a bad thing for Lacy to get?

Its not like Im predicting huge numbers for him.

10 TDs...not a huge prediction.
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Excellent post.

Thank you for showing relevant facts and not cherry picked carefully selected stats designed to support a pre-determined conclusion
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How is showing all of the actual rushing TD breakdown for all Mike McCarthy coached Green Bay teams cherry picking?

The numbers hold if you add his years in New Orleans and season in San Francisco. You should expect Green Bay to pass for about 66% of their TDs this year and you should expect a handful of the rushing TDs to go to players other than their primary running back.

Speaking of the primary running back has anyone mentioned that James Starks is listed as the #1 RB on the Packers official website?
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About the team site depth charts, there seems to be a lot of that going on. Maybe it depends on the team. Powell is shown as No. 1 in NYJ, Woodhead is No. 3 for SD. The last I read on Starks he was buried on the depth chart, but then go back and read some of the glowing predictions on him back in the day, people were high on him, now he's nothing.

http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2011/07/13/emerging-nfl-talents-rb-james-starks/

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=529812&hl=starks

About McCarthy's time in NO, he did have Deuce McAllister and it was felt here at the time generally that he was underused especially in the red zone. The running game in general would disappear. Amazing what a QB like Rodgers does for a guy's rep (as opposed to McCarthy regularly vouching for Aaron Brooks, promoting him while ditching the likes of Marc Bulger and Jake Delhomme).

ETA: I rechecked that Packers link and Lacy is now No. 1 on the depth chart, Starks is no. 2.

 
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meyerj31 said:
Monsters of the Midway said:
I think Ridley is a good comp for Lacy, in terms of talent, opportunity based on offense and fantasy production. Though Lacy reminded me of Steven Jackson when he ran through that St. Louis defense
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Ridley also has a top 3 offensive line =/

If the Packers could get Lacy to the 2nd level without being touched, Lacy would look pretty damn good, too.
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Like he did playing for Alabama no doubt.

Needless to say he is not in quite as favorable situation now as he was then.

It will be interesting to see how well he does as I mentioned before. I think this is a good test case for how important or not a teams offensive line is for a RBs production.

 
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Mario Kart said:
Chaka said:
Mario Kart said:
How many of you have scooped up Jonathan Franklin? Guy is so underrated right now and will be starting before too long. The only downside for that is he plays for Green Bay.
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Why do you say that? I saw him a lot at UCLA and think he has a lot of talent but every single report has indicated that he is having a ton of trouble picking up the pro game. I am sure he will figure it out eventually but there is nothing to indicate he will be in line for starter reps even if Eddie Lacy falls flat on his face.
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 Sure, McCarthy's offense is easy to pick up if you are a bruiser runner. Know what hole to hit, give a second option and go. Lacy will be lucky to see 20 targets the whole year. Franklin has more of the offense to pick up in the same amount of time but when he does, he will be similar to Ahman Green. Maybe not in production at first but he will make that progress.

My friends who still live in the Green Bay area go to most of the practices and listen to all the local Packers news, radio and such. I don't anymore but back in the day I was able to get Green, Grant cheap for those good years... but I lived up there during those years too.
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:doh:

 
I have a feeling that Lacy is going to smash the SF defense in the mouth this weekend. He's going to be too much for the nickel D that they will have to employ on a regular basis.

 
Buffaloes said:
Beerguzzler said:
I have a feeling that Lacy is going to smash the SF defense in the mouth this weekend. He's going to be too much for the nickel D that they will have to employ on a regular basis.
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nickel d or not, how is the GB OL going to handle the SF front?
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This is the question that needs asking... and as a Packer homer, the potential answer scares me.

We'll see... it's going to be one hell of a welcome to the league for Bakhtiari.

 
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