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Don't sleep on Donte Moncrief: Draft Day steal (1 Viewer)

ryno1980 said:
You guys are ignoring some of the data here. Johnson was great in his prime but that's over. His yards per reception dwindled to 11 per catch last season. Sure, he has a much better qb situation now but Andre made up for that when he was younger. His ability to bust plays over 20 yards has gone down the last couple years.

Of Moncriefs 49 targets in 2014, he caught 7 for 20 yard pass plays and 3 of those were 30-plus yard TDs.

luck had a 67 percent completion percentage to Dante and a 125 rating, both higher numbers than luck had with Hilton. I admit that's a smaller sample size but it proves, combined with Moncriefs performance in week 1, that there is some good chemistry here. I want a piece of that and paid the 30 percent of Faab to get it.

Maybe Andre has some resurgent season but I don't see it. The reliable 6-70 that another poster mentioned is how I see him. Moncrief has the chance to haven the monster games.
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Read up: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2015/03/12/andre-johnson-still-has-plenty-left-to-offer-the-colts/

 
FF Ninja said:
ryno1980 said:
You guys are ignoring some of the data here. Johnson was great in his prime but that's over. His yards per reception dwindled to 11 per catch last season. Sure, he has a much better qb situation now but Andre made up for that when he was younger. His ability to bust plays over 20 yards has gone down the last couple years.

Of Moncriefs 49 targets in 2014, he caught 7 for 20 yard pass plays and 3 of those were 30-plus yard TDs.

luck had a 67 percent completion percentage to Dante and a 125 rating, both higher numbers than luck had with Hilton. I admit that's a smaller sample size but it proves, combined with Moncriefs performance in week 1, that there is some good chemistry here. I want a piece of that and paid the 30 percent of Faab to get it.

Maybe Andre has some resurgent season but I don't see it. The reliable 6-70 that another poster mentioned is how I see him. Moncrief has the chance to haven the monster games.
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Read up: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2015/03/12/andre-johnson-still-has-plenty-left-to-offer-the-colts/
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Excellent reporting. Backs up what I'm saying that he will be the underneath guy, racking up first down catches and such with his great route running. if you want a consistent wr2/3 that catches 75-80 balls, Johnson is your guy. I already drafted a couple guys like that at a lower price than Johnson went for. There's a chance Moncrief could be similar to Hiltons recent production.

 
What you're missing is that he's great at contested catches. He should be money in the red zone. So that 6-70 stat line will be more like 6-70-1 which will be better than Moncrief's 4-60-0 line.

Just curious, who did you get so cheaply that's going to put up 6-70 each week? You know that translates to 96/1120, right?

 
FF Ninja said:
What you're missing is that he's great at contested catches. He should be money in the red zone. So that 6-70 stat line will be more like 6-70-1 which will be better than Moncrief's 4-60-0 line.

Just curious, who did you get so cheaply that's going to put up 6-70 each week? You know that translates to 96/1120, right?
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I wasn't suggesting he would average 6 or 70, but I didn't finish my thought. I see those 6-70-1 games as his strongest performances.

He obviously started with a 4-24. I'd be shocked to see him catch 90 but who knows.

Oh guys like keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall and golden Tate went after him, sometimes by a lot. I'd rather have him than Tate but definitely not Allen.

And I agree, he could be money in the red zone, but competition with Allen, Gore and even Fleener gives me pause to expect some 8-10 TD total. Moncrief could pull that off if he continues to be a big play threat and gets better at all the things Andre does so well.

 
We will see how done AJ is after this week...soem of you guys are acting like they didn't just play the best defense in the NFL last week.

Bills D this year is what the Hawks D used to be the last couple years.

 
Raiderfan32904 said:
Sabertooth said:
Raiderfan32904 said:
I used to be a Moncrief dynasty owner (sold high to acquire Josh Hill). Anyway, I'm not going to trash him, but I think clearly Dorsett is the better player and superior dynasty value. But there's no discounting the recent targets Moncrief has been getting and will likely be getting in the near future. He's got good short term redraft value. I'm trying to re-acquire him without breaking the bank, as I already own TY and Dorsett. Would be nice to have all the bases covered. But I'm not offering much, and I have I land him, great. If not, no big deal. Certainly worth a decent FAAB bid if he's on your waiver wire.
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:no: I don't think you understand what sold high means.
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Sorry, my bad...it's early. I meant Jeremy Hill.
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Good. I thought you meant that you were high when you sold him.

 
Meatwad Reloaded said:
We will see how done AJ is after this week...soem of you guys are acting like they didn't just play the best defense in the NFL last week.

Bills D this year is what the Hawks D used to be the last couple years.
Click to expand...
Yea again... Moncrief's production last week could easily have been a product of game flow because Bills best two corners were on Andre Johnson and T.Y. Hilton... I think Moncrief is getting way too much love for a 6-46-1 line where there is a good chance he was targeted more because Luck was ineffective against the Bills for the entirety of the game and had to look elsewhere

 
DeaLerZ said:
Meatwad Reloaded said:
We will see how done AJ is after this week...soem of you guys are acting like they didn't just play the best defense in the NFL last week.

Bills D this year is what the Hawks D used to be the last couple years.
Click to expand...
Yea again... Moncrief's production last week could easily have been a product of game flow because Bills best two corners were on Andre Johnson and T.Y. Hilton... I think Moncrief is getting way too much love for a 6-46-1 line where there is a good chance he was targeted more because Luck was ineffective against the Bills for the entirety of the game and had to look elsewhere
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If that's the argument, won't most team's two best corners be on Andre and TY? Could be something Luck looks to exploit often. You can't deny Luck has a pretty good comfort level with Donte. It's possible all three can be fantasy relevant.And if Dorsett earns a piece of the pie, all 4 could be somewhat boom or bust.

 
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Gr00vus said:
A guy in one of my leagues just spent a little over 50% of his free agent bidding points for the season on Moncrief. Just one information point for those trying to get a feel for how people are valuing this guy.
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What some people don't understand is that you must bid that high to get him in some competitive leagues. I spent over 50% and beat out that next guy who bid 47% so I needed to in order to get him and I knew it and I was right . I'll take the gamble with him , Hilton is fragile and small and Johnson is done. I just hope Indy realizes it and benches him unlike they did with Richardson!!

 
I "had" to pick this guy up in one bigger league, as I was desperate for a 4th WR. (league starts 3WR)

It seems like the reports and expectations on this guy are all over the map to be honest.

I don't see how you guys can realistically "expect" WR2 production straight away, unless I am missing something.

Can we reasonably expect INDY to just bury Andre Johnson with very few targets?

I get he isn't the same guy as 6 years ago, but they DID just sign the guy........seriously! I'm willing to bet the guys there in INDY did their homework before signing him.

Now if Hilton misses some time this guy should be money, but from the reports he would be back a week from Sunday at the latest, its just swelling in his knee.

This just seems to have "the next boom or bust WR3 production" written all over it, with a few good big weeks sprinkled in.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't want to be trying to figure out each week if he's going to show up or not.

TZM

 
Feels like a trap. Best case scenario is they use Hilton as a decoy so Revis is on him. If TY is out I think they put Revis on Moncrief because they know AJ has lost a step. Shark move if TY sits is start Dorsett.

 
ryno1980 said:
DeaLerZ said:
Meatwad Reloaded said:
We will see how done AJ is after this week...soem of you guys are acting like they didn't just play the best defense in the NFL last week.

Bills D this year is what the Hawks D used to be the last couple years.
Click to expand...
Yea again... Moncrief's production last week could easily have been a product of game flow because Bills best two corners were on Andre Johnson and T.Y. Hilton... I think Moncrief is getting way too much love for a 6-46-1 line where there is a good chance he was targeted more because Luck was ineffective against the Bills for the entirety of the game and had to look elsewhere
Click to expand...
If that's the argument, won't most team's two best corners be on Andre and TY? Could be something Luck looks to exploit often. You can't deny Luck has a pretty good comfort level with Donte. It's possible all three can be fantasy relevant.And if Dorsett earns a piece of the pie, all 4 could be somewhat boom or bust.
Click to expand...
They aren't going to be playing the Bills every week either...I am not saying he is not going to be relevant lol... I am saying he is most likely going to be way too inconsistent to be an very week starter, and will be boom or bust. The Colts signed Andre Johnson to a 3 year $21 mil deal to be Luck's security blanket, and possession receiver

 
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DeaLerZ said:
ryno1980 said:
DeaLerZ said:
Meatwad Reloaded said:
We will see how done AJ is after this week...soem of you guys are acting like they didn't just play the best defense in the NFL last week.

Bills D this year is what the Hawks D used to be the last couple years.
Click to expand...
Yea again... Moncrief's production last week could easily have been a product of game flow because Bills best two corners were on Andre Johnson and T.Y. Hilton... I think Moncrief is getting way too much love for a 6-46-1 line where there is a good chance he was targeted more because Luck was ineffective against the Bills for the entirety of the game and had to look elsewhere
Click to expand...
If that's the argument, won't most team's two best corners be on Andre and TY? Could be something Luck looks to exploit often. You can't deny Luck has a pretty good comfort level with Donte. It's possible all three can be fantasy relevant.And if Dorsett earns a piece of the pie, all 4 could be somewhat boom or bust.
Click to expand...
They aren't going to be playing the Bills every week either...I am not saying he is not going to be relevant lol... I am saying he is most likely going to be way too inconsistent to be an very week starter, and will be boom or bust. The Colts signed Andre Johnson to a 3 year $21 mil deal to be Luck's security blanket, and possession receiver
Click to expand...
Just because Johnson got a 3 year contract doesn't make him a consistent fantasy producer. It's possible Johnson could be the more skilled/more valuable player to the colts and Moncrief score more fantasy points. But I don't remember anyone saying he's a must start every week guy. I just think If I were choosing a third wide receiver for my team, it would be Moncrief over Johnson.
 
FF Ninja said:
ryno1980 said:
You guys are ignoring some of the data here. Johnson was great in his prime but that's over. His yards per reception dwindled to 11 per catch last season. Sure, he has a much better qb situation now but Andre made up for that when he was younger. His ability to bust plays over 20 yards has gone down the last couple years.

Of Moncriefs 49 targets in 2014, he caught 7 for 20 yard pass plays and 3 of those were 30-plus yard TDs.

luck had a 67 percent completion percentage to Dante and a 125 rating, both higher numbers than luck had with Hilton. I admit that's a smaller sample size but it proves, combined with Moncriefs performance in week 1, that there is some good chemistry here. I want a piece of that and paid the 30 percent of Faab to get it.

Maybe Andre has some resurgent season but I don't see it. The reliable 6-70 that another poster mentioned is how I see him. Moncrief has the chance to haven the monster games.
Click to expand...
Read up: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2015/03/12/andre-johnson-still-has-plenty-left-to-offer-the-colts/
Click to expand...
Date March, 12th. Haha

I agree w other posters that are saying AJ will be your typical 6/70 wtih a few td's sprinkled in this season. Moncrief offers plenty of value in this offense. Buyyyyy

 
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Fleener,Allen and Gore will be much more involved this week....I wouldn't have high hopes on Moncrief..It was Aj's first full game in this offense too. AJ and Luck just need another week or 2 to get on the same page. and playing Buff(probably best Def in the AFC)didn't help much. I bet Moncrief has a 4/50 game against the Jets,while Dorsett goes 7/110/td if Hilton doesn't play,with Cromatie out this week. Moncrief is way overvalued IMO. The 11 targets Moncrief saw,could be the most he see's all year in a game. take away Monciefs TD,and he wasn't very productive with his 11 targets.

 
Picked up Moncrief for 9% of my budget this week (dropped Colston). Pretty happy about it for that price. That said Im definitely not starting him this week, if Hilton sits he probably gets the Revis treatment. Even if not, Jets still have a good D overall.

Also, I have a feeling despite being a good deep threat like Hilton and Dorsett, I have a feeling Moncrief's statlines will be fairly consistent this year and not real boom/bust.

 
I posted something a little too close to an AC Forum question for my liking, but I really want this guy. I'd be willing to give up Maclin and a quality TE for him.

I think he's a WR2 by the FF playoffs, which is what we're all playing for. I'm totally on the Moncrief train, and would have had him in the subscriber contest if not for erroneous depth charts by certain organizations (I'm thinking Rotoworld and others, not FBG, IIRC). Instead I have Amendola; though I think Moncrief was three bucks to Amendola's four.

 
Grigson has a history of overpaying for players other teams were willing to let go. I have a feeling that people who drafted Gore and AJ early are going to be disappointed. (As a Colts fan, I hope I'm wrong.)

Whew, nice to finally get that off my chest.

 
Jrodicus said:
Grigson has a history of overpaying for players other teams were willing to let go. I have a feeling that people who drafted Gore and AJ early are going to be disappointed. (As a Colts fan, I hope I'm wrong.)

Whew, nice to finally get that off my chest.
Click to expand...
That must have been tough, but it's okay, man. It's okay. Gore's gonna be just fine.

/Gore owner

 
-jb- said:
rockaction said:
Jrodicus said:
Grigson has a history of overpaying for players other teams were willing to let go. I have a feeling that people who drafted Gore and AJ early are going to be disappointed. (As a Colts fan, I hope I'm wrong.)

Whew, nice to finally get that off my chest.
Click to expand...
That must have been tough, but it's okay, man. It's okay. Gore's gonna be just fine.

/Gore owner
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I always fight back tears whenever I watch that. Let's hope I'm not fighting them back on Monday when I watch Frank. It is, after all, the Jets; and they are tough against the run.

I hope to have traded for Moncrief by then. I'm crossing my fingers in hopes of a night of Luck, Moncrief, Ivory and Gore running up and down the field.

 
rockaction said:
I posted something a little too close to an AC Forum question for my liking, but I really want this guy. I'd be willing to give up Maclin and a quality TE for him.

I think he's a WR2 by the FF playoffs, which is what we're all playing for. I'm totally on the Moncrief train, and would have had him in the subscriber contest if not for erroneous depth charts by certain organizations (I'm thinking Rotoworld and others, not FBG, IIRC). Instead I have Amendola; though I think Moncrief was three bucks to Amendola's four.
Click to expand...
Was he really that cheap for the contest? I dont recall, just know I made a bunch of cheap WR plays - Amendola, Lockett, Royal, Wheaton. Wouldnt shock me if he was that cheap, I probably didnt take him there because at first glance it looked like he was WR3/4 with Dorsett and they have 2 viable TEs

 
Kenny Powers said:
rockaction said:
I posted something a little too close to an AC Forum question for my liking, but I really want this guy. I'd be willing to give up Maclin and a quality TE for him.

I think he's a WR2 by the FF playoffs, which is what we're all playing for. I'm totally on the Moncrief train, and would have had him in the subscriber contest if not for erroneous depth charts by certain organizations (I'm thinking Rotoworld and others, not FBG, IIRC). Instead I have Amendola; though I think Moncrief was three bucks to Amendola's four.
Click to expand...
Was he really that cheap for the contest? I dont recall, just know I made a bunch of cheap WR plays - Amendola, Lockett, Royal, Wheaton. Wouldnt shock me if he was that cheap, I probably didnt take him there because at first glance it looked like he was WR3/4 with Dorsett and they have 2 viable TEs
Click to expand...
To the best of my recollection, he was at least under seven. I'm thinking three bucks for him, as that seems to stick in my mind. I'm also still pretty sure most depth charts had him at WR4 given that Dorsett was a first-rounder.

I'm guessing people thought that Hilton, AJ, Dorsett, Moncrief, Fleener, and Allen and Gore would all fight to see the ball this year.

I'm going to search the entries. Hold on a moment.

eta* Amendola was three. Sorry. Still looking up Moncrief. Moncrief was four. Dorsett was five.

I flipped Moncrief and Amendola in value. But that's still cheap.

 
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Soulfly3 said:
Looks like Hilton is playing Monday
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(RotoWire)Hilton (knee) returned to practice Saturday and is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Jets, the Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder reports.

Analysis: This was Hilton's first practice of the week. Coach Chuck Pagano said Hilton "looked good" in Saturday's session and he is optimistic his star receiver will be able to play in Monday night's game. While it certainly seems like everything is pointing toward Hilton playing in Week 2, the fact that it is a Monday night game puts owners in a somewhat precarious position
 
Soulfly3 said:
Looks like Hilton is playing Monday
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Will be interesting to see how the usage unfolds. Hilton playing might be a positive thing considering he'll draw Revis, and most of Moncrief's production came last week with Hilton on the field anyway. Dudes gonna have to earn his position in the pecking order either way.

 
The table is getting set up quite nicely. Looking like TY plays, whether he is a decoy or not it is not looking like Revis will be on Moncrief unless he blows up in the first half....which I would gladly take even if it means rolling over to him in the second half. AC is out and AJ looked like trash last week, not sure about the rest of you guys but I am feeling good about this one.

 
starks said:
The table is getting set up quite nicely. Looking like TY plays, whether he is a decoy or not it is not looking like Revis will be on Moncrief unless he blows up in the first half....which I would gladly take even if it means rolling over to him in the second half. AC is out and AJ looked like trash last week, not sure about the rest of you guys but I am feeling good about this one.
Click to expand...
Who is AC? Oh Cromartie, were using abbreviations for CBs these days?!

 
Kenny Powers said:
starks said:
The table is getting set up quite nicely. Looking like TY plays, whether he is a decoy or not it is not looking like Revis will be on Moncrief unless he blows up in the first half....which I would gladly take even if it means rolling over to him in the second half. AC is out and AJ looked like trash last week, not sure about the rest of you guys but I am feeling good about this one.
Click to expand...
Who is AC? Oh Cromartie, were using abbreviations for CBs these days?!
Click to expand...
Dont be a DB. (Not a defensive back)

 
Would you give a potential top 5 (dynasty) pick for Moncrief right now? I'm in the window right now but with John Brown/Watkins/Parker as my WR3. I'm afraid his cost skyrockets with another good game. I've offered Mallett (superflex) but I don't expect the owner to take it.

 
starks said:
Kenny Powers said:
starks said:
The table is getting set up quite nicely. Looking like TY plays, whether he is a decoy or not it is not looking like Revis will be on Moncrief unless he blows up in the first half....which I would gladly take even if it means rolling over to him in the second half. AC is out and AJ looked like trash last week, not sure about the rest of you guys but I am feeling good about this one.
Click to expand...
Who is AC? Oh Cromartie, were using abbreviations for CBs these days?!
Click to expand...
Dont be a DB. (Not a defensive back)
Click to expand...
If I didnt see a highlight of last week's game and knew he got hurt, Id have no idea who you were talking about. Hell, Antonio Cromartie Jr Jr is probably already in college.

 
Quick victory lap for those of us who took the Moncrief plunge last week. I spent 20% which is looking like a steal right now....hopefully he can keep it up as TY gets healthy again and the Colts presumably get the offense back on track

 
TY and Moncrief ROS, once TY is 100%, let's talk floors.

Both have potential to put up WR1 numbers in a given week, but if Luck returns to top 5 form, the ball will get spread along with targets. I'm leaning low WR2 floor for Moncrief, which could rise if his target count stays where it is in this offense. Hilton mid+ WR2 based on potential volume and past performance. I think they'll yo-yo WR1 numbers weeks based on how the defense rolls against them, but I think that's the ceiling for either every week with Luck. Not going to see the quality of Cromartie and Revis man coverage every week, and one of them (Moncrief) still got WR1 numbers in a bad night for Luck where he was blitzed by a good pass rush all night.

 
With TY healthy, Moncrief likely doesn't see the opposing defense top cover corner or double teams rolled his way. TY can still take the top off a defense and scares teams with his speed, so I think Moncrief will benefit as Luck doesn't tend to lock on and force it. That and Andre looking older, Moncrief looks to be a solid WR2 with mixed in WR1 and a clunker or 2 performances in there.

 
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