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Paul Perkins - RB - NYG (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
gianmarco
Footballguy
The impact of signing either of those guys vs drafting Cook or Kamara or Mixon is completely different, IMO.
To go into the draft and not address the position thus far without having another RB on the roster shows a certain level of confidence in Perkins. That wouldn't be the case if they had taken a RB in day 1 or 2.
bostonfred
Footballguy
How is Blount a big impediment to Paul Perkins? He might take some touchdowns of the top, but you're not looking for 12 touchdowns from the kid in year two. What you want to see for his dynasty value is a starter workload with good yardage totals and decent receptions. After that, either he's got it or he doesn't. Blount isn't a good fit for every down carries in that offense - he might get a handful of early down touches but he actually sucks on early down touches. Most of his yardage came once he'd worn down the defense a little.
I don't think Blount is totally worthless, and he may have some non ppr value in an improved giants offense. But if the giants are going to bring someone in this year he's exactly what I'd hope for - a big slow guy who turns 31 during the season and isn't likely to start.
I don't think Blount is totally worthless, and he may have some non ppr value in an improved giants offense. But if the giants are going to bring someone in this year he's exactly what I'd hope for - a big slow guy who turns 31 during the season and isn't likely to start.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Last year, Giants' fifth-round pick Paul Perkins, a running back out of UCLA, was forced to miss most of the post-draft OTAs due to a rule requiring rookies to complete their college terms before reporting for full-time duty with their new clubs.
Once Perkins finished his classes, he hit the playbook hard, doing everything he could to get up to speed in all facets of the game.
By the end of the season, Perkins had passed former starter and now ex-Giant Rashad Jennings on the depth chart.
After giving the Giants a sample of what he's capable of doing, the team had to have liked what they saw: A guy who not only improved every week, but who, per Pro Football Focus, also allowed just two quarterback hurries in 325 snaps.
More importantly, Perkins' 4.1 yards per carry was the highest average of those running backs with at least 100 carries (the other being Jennings).
Perkins also had the higher yards-per-contact average (2.2) to Jennings' 2.0, and forced 10 missed tackles to Jennings' 11.
Perkins' limited production no doubt gives the team hope that the league's 29th ranked rushing offense last year will be much improved in 2017.
Perkins is going to be counted on in a big way to make it happen; with a full offseason under his belt, he should be that much more improved in 2017
The bolded is a big, big deal, especially with Eli in NY.
Once Perkins finished his classes, he hit the playbook hard, doing everything he could to get up to speed in all facets of the game.
By the end of the season, Perkins had passed former starter and now ex-Giant Rashad Jennings on the depth chart.
After giving the Giants a sample of what he's capable of doing, the team had to have liked what they saw: A guy who not only improved every week, but who, per Pro Football Focus, also allowed just two quarterback hurries in 325 snaps.
More importantly, Perkins' 4.1 yards per carry was the highest average of those running backs with at least 100 carries (the other being Jennings).
Perkins also had the higher yards-per-contact average (2.2) to Jennings' 2.0, and forced 10 missed tackles to Jennings' 11.
Perkins' limited production no doubt gives the team hope that the league's 29th ranked rushing offense last year will be much improved in 2017.
Perkins is going to be counted on in a big way to make it happen; with a full offseason under his belt, he should be that much more improved in 2017
The bolded is a big, big deal, especially with Eli in NY.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
I'm not really wanting offers for him at this time. I just shake my head at the low ball offers and hit reject. I don't really say anything about it to the person offering.
I prefer not to stock my roster with bums, but you're welcome to manage your team however you want to.
It also depends on if you are intending to compete this year or not. If I had a team that was 2-3 years away from contention, I'd probably hold that lottery ticket for at least one more season.
On a team that is trying to win now, he is probably useless.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That is a very over generalized statement given a lot of dynasty roster sizes are 24-26 man rosters. In one league I have the best team in the league and it makes no sense to worry about Perkins in a trade at this time.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
So 5th round pick Perkins vs 4th round pick Gallman
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Nero
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Lance Zierlein and Bucky Brooks seem to this their talent level is very similar.
I think Perkins is a bit better than Gallman but it is close.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Not ready for NFL pass protection duties yet.
His blocking style will get him in trouble, since relying strictly on power will have him get blown up and miss blocks entirely. His vision is there to be a successful blocker, but his technique will need to greatly improve.
Will have to learn NFL blitz protection
Probably not a good sign for his year one production when the first 3 scouting reports I Googled list his pass protection as a negative.
His blocking style will get him in trouble, since relying strictly on power will have him get blown up and miss blocks entirely. His vision is there to be a successful blocker, but his technique will need to greatly improve.
Will have to learn NFL blitz protection
Probably not a good sign for his year one production when the first 3 scouting reports I Googled list his pass protection as a negative.
LBH
Footballguy
Speaking Monday, Giants coach Ben McAdoo called Paul Perkins the starting running back.
As a number of Giants reporters pointed out on Twitter, it's not surprising, but it is surprising that McAdoo would publicly say so. Instead of trying to force a sense of competition on early downs, the Giants will spend the offseason pumping up Perkins' confidence. Perkins had a shaky rookie year, but it's hard to make sweeping judgements considering the line he was running behind.
Source: Paul Schwartz on Twitter
May 1 - 3:33 PM
As a number of Giants reporters pointed out on Twitter, it's not surprising, but it is surprising that McAdoo would publicly say so. Instead of trying to force a sense of competition on early downs, the Giants will spend the offseason pumping up Perkins' confidence. Perkins had a shaky rookie year, but it's hard to make sweeping judgements considering the line he was running behind.
Source: Paul Schwartz on Twitter
May 1 - 3:33 PM
bostonfred
Footballguy
I really think people are missing the boat on Perkins. His traits match that situation so well.
1) yeah, the line sucks. That's why they need a running back who can pass block. With the late start (UCLA graduation) and multiple veteran pass blockers in his way, they didn't start giving Perkins double digit carries right away, but when they did, he responded well, and it will keep him on the field a lot.
2) The same learning curve applies to gallman, who had pass blocking listed as a concern in all of his pre draft scouting reports, and will not be ready to play right away. This is Perkins backfield.
3) Perkins strengths are his vision, elusiveness, change of direction.. things which favor making something out of nothing.
Example 1
Example 2
When the line collapses he can make the play on his own.
4) The giants are going to be in 3 wide with Perkins and a tight end on most downs. He'll never face 8 in the box and will see a lot of 6 - which means he should get to the second level fairly often.
5) Perkins can catch the ball well too. He had 15 receptions and 112 carries in a part time role last year. He should get 30+ as a starter.
6) He's also their de facto goal line back. You might think the giants are pass heavy inside the 10, but on 52 plays last year they ran it 25 times. Perkins should get a lot of those.
7) The giants, knowing what kind of back he was, drafted him, expressed excitement about him as their starter of three future, increased his workload throughout his rookie year, didn't draft or sign any of the available big names, and named him their starter long before they had to.
8) The Giants ranked 30th in the league in rushing last year with 3.6 yards per attempt. That was
181 carries by Jennings (3.3)
30 carries by darkwaa (3.7)
17 carries by Rainey (3.7)
112 carries by Perkins (4.1)
So while it's easy to say the giants run game was a mess, it was a lot messier when they had bad running backs carrying the ball. Note the above also includes 30 carries by Vereen (4.8) - he has a career average of 4.3.
I dont remember ever seeing a projected feature back for a contending team go this late in fantasy drafts, but now is the time to scoop him up.
1) yeah, the line sucks. That's why they need a running back who can pass block. With the late start (UCLA graduation) and multiple veteran pass blockers in his way, they didn't start giving Perkins double digit carries right away, but when they did, he responded well, and it will keep him on the field a lot.
2) The same learning curve applies to gallman, who had pass blocking listed as a concern in all of his pre draft scouting reports, and will not be ready to play right away. This is Perkins backfield.
3) Perkins strengths are his vision, elusiveness, change of direction.. things which favor making something out of nothing.
Example 1
Example 2
When the line collapses he can make the play on his own.
4) The giants are going to be in 3 wide with Perkins and a tight end on most downs. He'll never face 8 in the box and will see a lot of 6 - which means he should get to the second level fairly often.
5) Perkins can catch the ball well too. He had 15 receptions and 112 carries in a part time role last year. He should get 30+ as a starter.
6) He's also their de facto goal line back. You might think the giants are pass heavy inside the 10, but on 52 plays last year they ran it 25 times. Perkins should get a lot of those.
7) The giants, knowing what kind of back he was, drafted him, expressed excitement about him as their starter of three future, increased his workload throughout his rookie year, didn't draft or sign any of the available big names, and named him their starter long before they had to.
8) The Giants ranked 30th in the league in rushing last year with 3.6 yards per attempt. That was
181 carries by Jennings (3.3)
30 carries by darkwaa (3.7)
17 carries by Rainey (3.7)
112 carries by Perkins (4.1)
So while it's easy to say the giants run game was a mess, it was a lot messier when they had bad running backs carrying the ball. Note the above also includes 30 carries by Vereen (4.8) - he has a career average of 4.3.
I dont remember ever seeing a projected feature back for a contending team go this late in fantasy drafts, but now is the time to scoop him up.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Interesting. Although one could say the same about Dixon, being projected as the starter and going overall ~110 (He is missing 1/4 of the season, so there's that too).
I have an opportunity to keep Perkins at a last round draft pick price (14). The problem is I am already keeping Crowell and Ajayi, so keeping Perkins kind of pigeon holes me at RB options in the draft as we do have short benches (5 bench positions). I am considering it. There is risk there, specifically losing catches to Vereen.
Perkins is going 77 overall, RB 30,28 in standard and PPR respectively. I think this is pretty fair. I wouldn't take him earlier than round 6 or 7 personally. He isn't technically a featured back because Vereen is stealing receptions. Featured back, to me, is someone who gets it all.
bostonfred
Footballguy
@FF Ninja
Responding to your post in https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/757099-2017-offensive-lines-and-resulting-fantasy-impact/
Here's a couple more examples that might explain the discrepancy between how you see Perkins and how I do.
https://youtu.be/HxBUcL2RzKM
3 good examples here of what he can do against 6 or 7 in the box. First example is 6 defenders. Bad blocking. He should get hit in the backfield, but doesn't. Second and third examples are against 7 in the box. You can see how he sets up blocks and uses his lateral agility.
As for the receivers blocking, they don't need to block to get him to the second level - they just need to draw coverage away. But here you see obj contributing on a big play, and also how Perkins cam break tackles and set up blocks upfield.
https://youtu.be/YfWtrtRQUkM
I agree with you that he doesn't look like an elite running back like Peterson or Tomlinson. If you lined Perkins up in those backfields, he would have been a one year starter.
But Perkins is a really good fit for the giants 3wr offense because of the types of plays he runs well on. Watch the videos, you'll see some examples. Those are the kind of plays they want from him - they don't line up and bully you with two tight ends and a fullback. He can run up the gut, but his best traits are cutting laterally and using his elusiveness and catching the ball in space. On some teams that would make him a third down back, but he's a little bigger, and has carried a big load, and the giants have been talking about him as their rb of the future for a year now. I think he can be a lot more.
Responding to your post in https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/757099-2017-offensive-lines-and-resulting-fantasy-impact/
Here's a couple more examples that might explain the discrepancy between how you see Perkins and how I do.
https://youtu.be/HxBUcL2RzKM
3 good examples here of what he can do against 6 or 7 in the box. First example is 6 defenders. Bad blocking. He should get hit in the backfield, but doesn't. Second and third examples are against 7 in the box. You can see how he sets up blocks and uses his lateral agility.
As for the receivers blocking, they don't need to block to get him to the second level - they just need to draw coverage away. But here you see obj contributing on a big play, and also how Perkins cam break tackles and set up blocks upfield.
https://youtu.be/YfWtrtRQUkM
I agree with you that he doesn't look like an elite running back like Peterson or Tomlinson. If you lined Perkins up in those backfields, he would have been a one year starter.
But Perkins is a really good fit for the giants 3wr offense because of the types of plays he runs well on. Watch the videos, you'll see some examples. Those are the kind of plays they want from him - they don't line up and bully you with two tight ends and a fullback. He can run up the gut, but his best traits are cutting laterally and using his elusiveness and catching the ball in space. On some teams that would make him a third down back, but he's a little bigger, and has carried a big load, and the giants have been talking about him as their rb of the future for a year now. I think he can be a lot more.
zamboni
Footballguy
You make some good points @bostonfred
McAdoo basically anointed him the guy right off the bat in the offseason. That said, the key issue is, and it's a legitimate one, is that it's not like he absolutely went off last year, whether it was his some combination of the weak OL or his own limitations. The fact that Perkins' pass blocking improved markedly last year is key though, as it may give him a long leash in the early going to prove himself. Whether he can cement himself as the feature guy is the question.
McAdoo basically anointed him the guy right off the bat in the offseason. That said, the key issue is, and it's a legitimate one, is that it's not like he absolutely went off last year, whether it was his some combination of the weak OL or his own limitations. The fact that Perkins' pass blocking improved markedly last year is key though, as it may give him a long leash in the early going to prove himself. Whether he can cement himself as the feature guy is the question.
@bostonfred
Good idea to bring it here. I guess I'm just not going to be impressed. The first play in that youtube clip seems pretty obvious. Nobody is within 15 yards of him on the edge. Doesn't take good vision to know to run outside the tackle when defenders are already through the interior of the line. 9 out of 10 times, there's a guy waiting for him there, but not this time, thus it made a highlight clip of a non-highlight worthy decision. And I'm not saying Perkins just isn't LT of AP. I'm saying Perkins isn't even Alfred Morris (or insert other nondescript multi-year starter of your choice). Even if he hangs onto the job this year and scrapes together a Terrance West-like season, I think the Giants still sign or draft someone in 2018. But for redraft alone, Terrance West's 2016 is about what I think Perkins' ceiling is. And at RB28, I'm looking for more upside.
Guys I'd rather have in that range or cheaper:
RB25 Martin - early season injuries/suspensions are overblown, IMO. The other players drafted are healthy and without their byes, so everyone should be able to shoulder 3-4 games without their RB2/3. So I'll gladly take Doug's upside over an extra 3 games of Perkins to start the season.
RB27 Powell - I consider Forte less of a threat to value than Vereen. Powell will be getting more receptions than Perkins.
RB36 Perine - better line, better talent, cheaper price. Sure Chris Thompson is his version of Vereen and Rob Kelly is about the threat that Gallman is, so I consider those items a wash, but the talent and OL favor Perine over Perkins.
RB39 Dixon - see comment on Martin about missed games to start the season.
FWIW, if you're a FBG subscriber, you can read Perkin's full rookie write up from Waldman here: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=gutcheck382
Good idea to bring it here. I guess I'm just not going to be impressed. The first play in that youtube clip seems pretty obvious. Nobody is within 15 yards of him on the edge. Doesn't take good vision to know to run outside the tackle when defenders are already through the interior of the line. 9 out of 10 times, there's a guy waiting for him there, but not this time, thus it made a highlight clip of a non-highlight worthy decision. And I'm not saying Perkins just isn't LT of AP. I'm saying Perkins isn't even Alfred Morris (or insert other nondescript multi-year starter of your choice). Even if he hangs onto the job this year and scrapes together a Terrance West-like season, I think the Giants still sign or draft someone in 2018. But for redraft alone, Terrance West's 2016 is about what I think Perkins' ceiling is. And at RB28, I'm looking for more upside.
Guys I'd rather have in that range or cheaper:
RB25 Martin - early season injuries/suspensions are overblown, IMO. The other players drafted are healthy and without their byes, so everyone should be able to shoulder 3-4 games without their RB2/3. So I'll gladly take Doug's upside over an extra 3 games of Perkins to start the season.
RB27 Powell - I consider Forte less of a threat to value than Vereen. Powell will be getting more receptions than Perkins.
RB36 Perine - better line, better talent, cheaper price. Sure Chris Thompson is his version of Vereen and Rob Kelly is about the threat that Gallman is, so I consider those items a wash, but the talent and OL favor Perine over Perkins.
RB39 Dixon - see comment on Martin about missed games to start the season.
FWIW, if you're a FBG subscriber, you can read Perkin's full rookie write up from Waldman here: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=gutcheck382
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Could go either way w/Perkins IMO. I'm struggling to decide if I should keep him or Tyler Lockett. (Start 3 WR, 2 Rb & 1 flex) I already am keeping Zeke, Ingram & Lamar Miller
need2know
Footballguy
Drop lockett. Ingram would be hard to keep too.
I'm starting to feel like Perkins is one of the better values in redraft right now.
I couldn't help but think of your Perkins clip when I saw this: https://twitter.com/MattBowen41/status/882590855877476352
The Abdullah clip is a good illustrations of why I wasn't impressed with that first play of your youtube clip. Nobody was waiting for Perkins on the outside like they were for Abdullah. If Perkins had to juke an outside defender (or two) then it would've been impressive. But breaking a run outside when the inside is clogged up is pretty much run of the mill. Making plays against unblocked defenders, that's noteworthy.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Bad idea.TripItUp said:
bostonfred
Footballguy
Sure. There are examples of Abdullah not breaking tackles and examples of Perkins breaking tackles.FF Ninja said:
I won't argue whether Perkins is a better or worse player than Abdullah - it's irrelevant. They aren't playing on the same teams with the same coaching and the same depth charts. If you swapped the two, I'd be more interested in Abdullah, because I have higher expectations for the giants than the lions, I believe Perkins has better receivers to keep things open for him, and I think Perkins may get more touches because I don't think vereen is going to get more touches than Riddick who has 142 and 159 the last two years.
If a defense wants to scheme Perkins out of the game they will probably be able to. But the giants have the best trio of receivers in the NFL and have them on the field all the time. You can't defend the giants by scheming Perkins away. You can defend them by sending blitzes at manning but Perkins is exactly the kind of back you use to beat the blitz - a good pass blocker with lateral agility and elusiveness who can catch the ball well.
So while you show me video of Abdullah evading blockers and say that's more impressive than video of Perkins not evading anyone, I prefer Perkins because he doesn't have to evade anyone because the defense is in nickel from the first snap of the game and they're doubling obj and trying to play man up with Marshall just to keep 7 near the box.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Not saying he can't be good, but can't put a lot of stock in his status as starter. He's still 5th round pick who's proven very little. If he doesn't do well I'm pretty sure the Giants will play somebody else.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Struggling if I should keep Perkins or Gabriel... Already keeping Ajayi and Crowell... Perkins as my RB3 or 4 sounds kind of nice. Costs me a last round draft pick. Upside is there.
RBM
Footballguy
The point of that Abdullah clip wasn't to say Abdullah is better than Perkins - I think that's pretty well established. The point was to show why I wasn't impressed with the highlight clip of Perkins you linked.
3WR sets or not, there's usually a defender on the outside. I want to know Perkins can actually evade that guy. I don't want to see clips of him running in wide open space because even with OBJ, Marshall, and Shepard, there will still be guys to evade. The OL isn't very good and if 3 wide sets really made running that easy, there would be more successful RBs in the league because 3 wide sets are getting quite common.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
IMO classic example a "riser." But for no real great reason aside from being named a starter, but who else do they have? Vereen is not a starter. Darkwa showed some signs of promise.
If we examine his 2016 resume:
4.1 yards per carry... not very impressive. Sure you could say he wasn't a starter all season, but when he got 10 or more carries he was actually worse at 4.0 yards per carry. Ranked 22nd overall last season. However, David Johnson averaged 4.2, Gordon 3.9, L. Miller 4.0. So there's some decent company among the 4.0 range.
0 TDs. Jennings vultured whatever TDs were available, as did Darkwa who is the biggest threat to Perkins IMO. No Jennings, so no one really knows what happens
1 game over 100 yards last season (8 games 9 carries or more)
Not a receiving threat. Vereen will get the bulk of those looks. against the Packers in the playoffs he got 5 targets. Otherwise he usually gets 1-2 receptions which isn't a whole lot.
For Perkins to be a top 10 RB, based on last season, he would have to rush for about 1080 yards. At 4.1 yards per carry that means he'd have to get 263 attempts, which is 16 per game. Not sure I see that happening (Bell got 261)
Just a lot of hype for a guy who hasn't done a whole lot. He has opportunity and he has looked good in spurts last year. I wouldn't be quick to start saying he's top 10. Sure, he has a great opportunity to do this, but when is the last time a Giants RB was a top 10? Ahmad Bradsaw 2010? Before that we're talking Tiki Barber. What makes anyone think the Giants will go from RB fantasy zero to RB fantasy hero?
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Does anyone see Perkins getting, on average, 16 carries a game? Because that's what it's going to take to be a top 10 RB
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
I think he has a good shot at 16 a game. They started using him a bit more later in the season with solid results. I have him as a cautious upside buy right now.
bostonfred
Footballguy
The giants have had 403, 449 and 398 rush attempts the last 3 years. Jennings had 543 of those, which is 181 per year, but he did it in 40 games played (of 48). That's a 654 carries in 3 year pace or close to 220 per year. Also theres no Andre Williams, gallman isn't ready to pass block in their audible heavy system, Vereen has never had more than 96 rush attempts in a season and darkwaa had never had more than 36. It's not hard to project Perkins at 240 rush attempts and 200 is about the least you should project
Perkins averaged 4.1 per attempt as a rookie. Give him 3.8 to 4.4 this year. If you're down on him, you might expect him to struggle in the lead role at 3.8. If you think he's going to improve in year two, 4.4 seems reasonable.
Jennings had 29, 30, and 35 receptions the last 3 years. Perkins is a good receiving back - 30-35 catches seems reasonable. Note that Vereen caught 81 and 19 passes in two of those years - he doesn't seem to take receptions away from the lead back.
Perkins averaged over 10 yards per reception as a rookie, but it's doubtful he'll repeat. 7-8 is more likely.
Perkins had no touchdowns as a rookie, but the giants have gotten 13, 5 and 6 touchdowns from their backs. Darkwaa has one touchdown per year - he's not really a goal line back. Neither is Vereen. Gallman may get some attempts, but he's a poorly regarded pass blocking prospect so he's unlikely to get much work. The giants have an almost exactly 50% run/pass ratio inside the 10, so Perkins could get anywhere from 3 to 10 touchdowns and it wouldn't be that shocking.
Give him 240 carries at 4.4, 35 receptions at 8 per catch, and 8 touchdowns, and you're looking at a low end rb1. Give him 200 at 3.8, 30 at 7, and 4 touchdowns and you're looking at a low end rb2. Either way you're looking at a guy worth owning.
I see him closer to the high end of that range, because I think he's a much better back than Jennings has been the last 3 years and I think that offense is going to produce more goal line opportunities than it has the last two years, so to me he's a potential rb1 you can get as one of the last starting rbs off the board.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Right, but the comment was about him being a top 10 RB. You make the case for how he gets there, but it's very best case scenario. It seems like almost any starting NFL RB can get a best case scenario into the late RB1 range.
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Looked mediocre last year. His best game came in week 17. His playoff game was 10 rushes for 30 yards.
Passing game should be nuts? Let's look at the ingredients:
- stew 36 y.o. QB with career 7.06 ypa (and 3:2 TD:INT ratio) coming off a 6.73 ypa season under the same OC
- add 1 part 33 y.o. Marshall
- mix in 1 part in rookie TE
- sprinkle in 28th ranked OL with a particularly weak blind side
Interseptopus
Footballguy
This is where I'm at. Best case scenario, sure he can be a RB1. I think it's reasonable he gets at least 200 carries. I can agree with that. Low end RB2 is about where I think he stands now in the rankings, and I think it's reasonable. Top 10 based on speculation seems like quite a reach.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I think it's a huge leap of faith to assume none of the other RBs on the Giants can supplant Perkins.
When just looking at RB rushes, data dominator says:
- 2014 - 425
- 2015 - 379
- 2016 - 373
