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RB Kareem Hunt, CLE (1 Viewer)

TheWinz said:
Well, since numbers don't tell the whole story, and there is no definitive way to say how good a player is, there can be no historical support to back it up.  That's why I can't prove Barry Sanders is the GOAT, but you can't prove he isn't.  But as a theory, let's try to see if the quality of a backup RB factors into rest time for the starter.

Scenario - Team A has these 4 RB's on their roster - Saquon, Zeke, CMC, and Alvin.  Team B has these 4 - DJ, Barber, Riddick, and Hyde.  Which RB of these 8 do you think would end up with the most touches?  
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Now lets say that Zeke, CMC, and Alvin all miss half the season.  Does that change your answer?

 
Gally said:
Now lets say that Zeke, CMC, and Alvin all miss half the season.  Does that change your answer?
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Very good question - I forgot to factor that in like I was supposed to, sorry.

Same scenario - which of the 8 RB's gets the most touches in the second half of the season?

 
TheWinz said:
Well, since numbers don't tell the whole story, and there is no definitive way to say how good a player is, there can be no historical support to back it up.  That's why I can't prove Barry Sanders is the GOAT, but you can't prove he isn't.  But as a theory, let's try to see if the quality of a backup RB factors into rest time for the starter.

Scenario - Team A has these 4 RB's on their roster - Saquon, Zeke, CMC, and Alvin.  Team B has these 4 - DJ, Barber, Riddick, and Hyde.  Which RB of these 8 do you think would end up with the most touches?  
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To be fair, you were eluding to the concern about Chubb's numbers of touches falling because Hunt is a good backup.  But, sure, don't let falsifiable hypotheses and empirical data get in the way of a good story.

What's the point you're trying to make with your scenario?  I think I know what it is but want to be sure before commenting.

 
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cobalt_27 said:
To be fair, you were eluding to the concern about Chubb's numbers of touches falling because Hunt is a good backup.  But, sure, don't let falsifiable hypotheses and empirical data get in the way of a good story.
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And I still stand by this.  If you think the quality of a starter's backup plays no role in the starter's touches, I guess we will agree to disagree.

 
TheWinz said:
And I still stand by this.  If you think the quality of a starter's backup plays no role in the starter's touches, I guess we will agree to disagree.
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Well, you just said there is no definitive way to determine if Hunt is a good backup.  So, I think you just argued yourself out of a point.

 
cobalt_27 said:
Well, you just said there is no definitive way to determine if Hunt is a good backup.  So, I think you just argued yourself out of a point.
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You are only trying to twist words to avoid the real question we have been disagreeing on, so I will ask it in plain English - do you think the quality of a starter's backup plays a role in the starter's touches?  It's a simple yes or no, but I doubt you will answer.

 
TheWinz said:
You are only trying to twist words to avoid the real question we have been disagreeing on, so I will ask it in plain English - do you think the quality of a starter's backup plays a role in the starter's touches?  It's a simple yes or no, but I doubt you will answer.
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No.  But, you've constructed a non-falsifiable hypothesis by, on the one hand, saying you do believe the quality of a backup plays a role in the starter's touches, while at the same time saying there is no way to determine the quality of a backup.  

I still waiting for the take-home slam dunk punchline you wanted to drop with your epic scenario.  Please advise.

 
cobalt_27 said:
No.  But, you've constructed a non-falsifiable hypothesis by, on the one hand, saying you do believe the quality of a backup plays a role in the starter's touches, while at the same time saying there is no way to determine the quality of a backup.  

I still waiting for the take-home slam dunk punchline you wanted to drop with your epic scenario.  Please advise.
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Words, words, words, blah, blah, blah

In the end, you think backup quality isn't a factor, and I do.  And on this point, I am right, you are wrong.  Have a nice day

 
TheWinz said:
Words, words, words, blah, blah, blah

In the end, you think backup quality isn't a factor, and I do.  And on this point, I am right, you are wrong.  Have a nice day
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Quite the hollow and amusing assertion that you're right and I'm wrong when you can't even operationalize the quality of a backup, let alone demonstrate that it makes a statistical difference.  

 
cobalt_27 said:
Quite the hollow and amusing assertion that you're right and I'm wrong when you can't even operationalize the quality of a backup, let alone demonstrate that it makes a statistical difference.  
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Sounds like it's time for a poll to prove you wrong.  Our discussion isn't even about Hunt anymore, so let's not fill his thread.

 
TheWinz said:
Sounds like it's time for a poll to prove you wrong.  Our discussion isn't even about Hunt anymore, so let's not fill his thread.
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This discussion is 100% tied to Hunt. To summarize, you have said:  I believe presence of X negatively influences Y.  I can't solve for X because I don't know what it is, but I really believe Hunt will eat into Chubb's production late in the year because X negatively influences Y, which I can't solve, but nevermind, let's not fill this thread with my circular pixie dust.

 
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cobalt_27 said:
This discussion is 100% tied to Hunt. To summarize, you have said:  I believe presence of X negatively influences Y.  I can't solve for X because I don't know what it is, but I really believe Hunt will eat into Chubb's production late in the year because X negatively influences Y, which I can't solve, but nevermind, let's not fill this thread with my circular pixie dust.
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I will let the poll do the talking.  That is all

 
Hunt is better than Chubb. But if I’m the browns I’d build around the cost controlled rookie deal and not a guy who is going to get a substantial raise in the offseason with red flags should he perform without off field hiccups.

if that is the case they are going to timeshare the second half of the season and people will be banging their heads on start decisions trying to guess how the hot hand of the week plays out.

that scenario/outcome holds plurality in my mind, but obviously there is a ton of variables and risk at play 

 
I think its easy to overthink this when it's really pretty clear that this is just going to be a real tough decisions for owners when they draft no mater what.....can go back and forth in here a ton about what people will think but nobody will really know for sure and so whatever that means to you, you just have to put a price on it, plant your flag, and roll.....

I'm looking at it like this....Hunt is not just "a backup" on the depth chart come week 10.....he could the best RB on the team and the freshest RB on the team come week 10....he is going to play....they will want to see and add what Hunt can bring to the game each week....and it will come at the expense of Chubb's touches one way or the other....Browns are in win now mode with a team that really could be contenders to advance in the playoffs....once the flow and chemistry starts to even out with Chubb having the upper hand initially, the Browns are going to give the rock to the guy that moves the chains....IMO, that is going to be both of them, cause they are both pretty darn good....so I will draft accordingly....I think Hunts receiving ability gives the Browns a few more options when he is on the field....and could lead to a few more scoring opportunities....the recent moves by the Browns indicate to me that they don't care what anybody thinks and they are "going for it" right now....in week 10, I don't think they are going to care about who has what contract or who is getting paid what.....they are gonna care about who do I want on the field when it's 3rd and 3 and we really need this first down....so I think they both still play a lot, darn near 50-50 but if it starts to swing one way, I give the edge to Hunt down the stretch so my flag will probably be planted in passing on Chubb early and if I think I can hammer the mid to late rounds of the draft and hit on a few guys (and my roster can handle the weight of a dead spot for nine weeks) then I might pull the trigger on Hunt in the middle of the draft.....because I think Chubb's numbers will take a hit down the stretch of the fantasy season when you need him the most....but if I'm not happy with the way my draft goes early, I would probably have to pass on Hunt as well.....but if you have confidence in your ability to draft late, work the WW, etc....Hunt could be a nice piece to have in your holster down the staretch...

 
TheWinz said:
If true, Chubb's ADP will go from late 2nd to early 2nd... overnight
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cobalt_27 said:
Chubb's ADP should have never had anything to do with Hunt in the first place.
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Here is where it all started, when word came out about a possible bar fight involving Hunt.  Let's forget all the bickering since then, and focus on the 2 statements above.  Now, let's throw some data into the mix.  Hunt's rookie season, without Mahomes, he led the league in rushing with 1327 yds.  He did this on 272 carries, averaging 4.9 YPC.  No RB with over 200 carries (there were 18) had a higher YPC.  He also had 53 catches for 455 yds, and 11 total TD's.  He finished as RB4, averaging 18.6 fantasy PPG.  Hunt's second season, with Mahomes, he did even better, averaging 20.9 fantasy PPG in his 11 games.  He only played 11 games, and still finished as RB12, 5 spots ahead of Nick Chubb.  Now, I am not going to distort reality and say Chubb averaged 12.2 fantasy PPG last year, because he didn't become the starter until week 7.  Once he did, however, he averaged 16.5 fantasy PPG in the last 10 weeks, and was RB8 during this span.  My point for all these stats is to show both Hunt and Chubb are the real deal and can handle lead RB duties.  There should be no discussion as to what NFL team has the best all-around tandem of RB's.  Hunt trails only Gurley and Kamara in his 27 starts; Chubb ranks 8th in his 10 starts.

Prior to the Hunt signing, CLE's RB2 was Duke Johnson, who is not known as a 3-down RB, but a pass-catching specialist.  There is no doubt Chubb will completely dominate the CLE backfield for the first 9 weeks while Hunt is suspended.  But when Hunt returns in week 10 (assuming he doesn't do something stupid to add onto his suspension), he has the capability of spelling Chubb for entire series of downs at a time, without missing a beat.  The same cannot be said of any other RB on the CLE roster.  Does anyone think Chubb's touches will not decrease with a healthy fresh-legged Hunt on the sideline?  Does Hunt's presence have any bearing on the Chubb's outlook for the second half of the season? 

To totally dismiss Hunt as just another backup RB is ludicrous.  Now, I am not saying Hunt is going to take over the starting gig, nor am I saying who the better RB is.  What I am saying is that both are very good RB's, and CLE will have the luxury of plugging in Hunt for long stretches.  From week 7 on last year, only 2 CLE RB's had any rushes - Chubb with 176, Duke with 21.  Do you think a fresh Hunt will only get 2 carries a game?

I will say this - I think Hunt is a better pass-catching RB than Chubb at this point in their careers.

 
Kareem Hunt totaled 11 yards on five carries while adding one catch for three yards in Friday’s preseason game against the Buccaneers.

Hunt drew the start in place of Nick Chubb, who was held out along with Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. There was no though of resting Hunt, who should be getting as many reps as possible ahead of his eight-game suspension. The former rushing champ was mostly bottled up by the Bucs D, managing a long gain of only seven yards. He’s had a quiet preseason to this point, collecting just 17 yards on seven rushing attempts (2.43 yards per carry). Likely headed for a timeshare upon his return in Week 10, Hunt is little more than a late-round stash in redraft leagues.

Aug 23, 2019, 10:42 PM ET
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Hunt got dropped in my keeper/auction league and I got him for $3.  If I can afford to stash him all year I’ll have him for a minimum keeper cost next year. 

 
Choke said:
He looked pedestrian at best these last two preseason games. Didnt see much zip at all. Conjured up Ray Rice thoughts.
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And this kids is why we don't put much stock into preseason performance when the majority of the starters aren't playing.

 
TheWinz said:
Here is where it all started, when word came out about a possible bar fight involving Hunt.  Let's forget all the bickering since then, and focus on the 2 statements above.  Now, let's throw some data into the mix.  Hunt's rookie season, without Mahomes, he led the league in rushing with 1327 yds.  He did this on 272 carries, averaging 4.9 YPC.  No RB with over 200 carries (there were 18) had a higher YPC.  He also had 53 catches for 455 yds, and 11 total TD's.  He finished as RB4, averaging 18.6 fantasy PPG.  Hunt's second season, with Mahomes, he did even better, averaging 20.9 fantasy PPG in his 11 games.  He only played 11 games, and still finished as RB12, 5 spots ahead of Nick Chubb.  Now, I am not going to distort reality and say Chubb averaged 12.2 fantasy PPG last year, because he didn't become the starter until week 7.  Once he did, however, he averaged 16.5 fantasy PPG in the last 10 weeks, and was RB8 during this span.  My point for all these stats is to show both Hunt and Chubb are the real deal and can handle lead RB duties.  There should be no discussion as to what NFL team has the best all-around tandem of RB's.  Hunt trails only Gurley and Kamara in his 27 starts; Chubb ranks 8th in his 10 starts.

Prior to the Hunt signing, CLE's RB2 was Duke Johnson, who is not known as a 3-down RB, but a pass-catching specialist.  There is no doubt Chubb will completely dominate the CLE backfield for the first 9 weeks while Hunt is suspended.  But when Hunt returns in week 10 (assuming he doesn't do something stupid to add onto his suspension), he has the capability of spelling Chubb for entire series of downs at a time, without missing a beat.  The same cannot be said of any other RB on the CLE roster.  Does anyone think Chubb's touches will not decrease with a healthy fresh-legged Hunt on the sideline?  Does Hunt's presence have any bearing on the Chubb's outlook for the second half of the season? 

To totally dismiss Hunt as just another backup RB is ludicrous.  Now, I am not saying Hunt is going to take over the starting gig, nor am I saying who the better RB is.  What I am saying is that both are very good RB's, and CLE will have the luxury of plugging in Hunt for long stretches.  From week 7 on last year, only 2 CLE RB's had any rushes - Chubb with 176, Duke with 21.  Do you think a fresh Hunt will only get 2 carries a game?

I will say this - I think Hunt is a better pass-catching RB than Chubb at this point in their careers.
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I think its telling that no one has directly responded to your July 3 post.

In part, I think, because your logic doesn't fit the popular narrative.

It would be interesting to get staff feedback on your post, as I understand several are calling for a Chubb top 5 finish.

 
Drafted him with my last pick in a short bench (6), three keeper league.  I still need to add a kicker before week 1.  Do I drop Hunt or a guy like Justin Jackson or Malcolm Brown?

 
SCT said:
Drafted him with my last pick in a short bench (6), three keeper league.  I still need to add a kicker before week 1.  Do I drop Hunt or a guy like Justin Jackson or Malcolm Brown?
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Not Hunt

 
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SCT said:
Drafted him with my last pick in a short bench (6), three keeper league.  I still need to add a kicker before week 1.  Do I drop Hunt or a guy like Justin Jackson or Malcolm Brown?
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Tough to wait more than half the FF season with short benches.  Would need to see roster and starting requirements to offer an opinion.

 
SCT said:
Drafted him with my last pick in a short bench (6), three keeper league.  I still need to add a kicker before week 1.  Do I drop Hunt or a guy like Justin Jackson or Malcolm Brown?
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I'd drop Hunt whether it's for Jackson/Brown/anyone else. He's not playing til Week 10 at the earliest. Week 10 is also a brutal bye week with 6 teams on bye (2 more than any other week)

Short bench league wouldn't even bother drafting him TBH. Got to get through bye weeks/other injuries.

 
Craig_MiamiFL said:
I'd drop Hunt whether it's for Jackson/Brown/anyone else. He's not playing til Week 10 at the earliest. Week 10 is also a brutal bye week with 6 teams on bye (2 more than any other week)

Short bench league wouldn't even bother drafting him TBH. Got to get through bye weeks/other injuries.
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Big mistake to drop him for Jackson Brown, he's way past his prime.

 
SCT said:
Drafted him with my last pick in a short bench (6), three keeper league.  I still need to add a kicker before week 1.  Do I drop Hunt or a guy like Justin Jackson or Malcolm Brown?
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It depends on the rest of your roster.  If you can manage to do well w/ what you have until week 10 I'd rather have him than Brown.  Jackson is interesting because he could get work in a 50/50 or 60/40 split right away.  Keeping Hunt w/ a last or second to last round pick next year is very interesting though.  I have him as a minimum keeper cost in my auction keeper league, he'll cost me 1/20th of my budget next year to keep if I can weather the storm of him not being available for 10 weeks.  I'll likely end up trading him though.

 
Rove! said:
It’s inexplicable to me why the NFL does this.  I would think being around the team would help set a player on the path of righteousness...
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Because he's suspended.  Just like if you were suspended for work you can't come to work and just hang around with everyone all day.  

 
killface said:
Because he's suspended.  Just like if you were suspended for work you can't come to work and just hang around with everyone all day.  
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Well yeah, but most NFL players are suspended for off-field stuff they need to be kept away from, not workplace problems. It's like the opposite of being suspended from work in "real life". Real life work suspensions or forced leaves of absence are usually related to issues in the workplace

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Well yeah, but most NFL players are suspended for off-field stuff they need to be kept away from, not workplace problems. It's like the opposite of being suspended from work in "real life". Real life work suspensions or forced leaves of absence are usually related to issues in the workplace
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I don't know if you got high on cocaine and used your business cards to get into fights on the weekend i'm pretty sure your company would suspend you and you wouldn't be allowed back in the office

 
The Athletic's Jay Glazer expects Kareem Hunt to be used in a change-of-pace role when he returns from suspension.

This falls in line with what's been expected. Nick Chubb is locked in as the starter after averaging 5.1 YPC through four games. Hunt is still five weeks from returning with Cleveland on a Week 7 bye. He isn't a threat to steal the starting job from Chubb, but Hunt could eventually play his way into a high volume change-up role.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Oct 5, 2019, 10:20 AM ET
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Kareem Hunt will resume practicing Monday.

Hunt isn't eligible to return from suspension yet, though the league permits him to resume practicing two weeks prior to being activated. The former rushing champ, who has spent much of the past two months recovering from sports hernia surgery, is on track to make his Browns debut against Buffalo in Week 10. He's expected to back up Nick Chubb, who trails only league-leader Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette in rushing yards per game.

SOURCE: clevelandbrowns.com

Oct 21, 2019, 11:00 AM ET
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I will grab as a cuff also.   I drafted him but I figured I'd have to cut bait for space at some point which did happen due to injuries. 

I don't know the dates off the top of my head but I am assuming he can't be traded this season.  I don't think he will have much if any value unless Chubb goes down.

 
trader jake said:
There's no reason to believe he will at this point.  If a Chubb owner is worried though...maybe a slight buy low (or just a buy) is possible in some leagues.
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I agree with you 100 percent. I just know there's people out there who believe he'll eat into his workload.

 
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
I agree with you 100 percent. I just know there's people out there who believe he'll eat into his workload.
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I have no doubt Hunt will eat into Chubb's workload compared to what it has been this season.  I just don't think that "eating" will make any difference into Chubb's performance in fantasy.  Chubb will still be the workhorse and do well and Hunt will take over the Hilliard role along with a couple more rushes each game than Hilliard received.  I still see 18-25 touches for Chubb and maybe 8-12 for Hunt. 

 
Kareem Hunt ‘looked good’ in 1st practice back with Browns

For the first time in more than two months, Kareem Hunt was on the practice field with his Browns teammates Monday, and he appeared to pick up right where he left off.

“I thought he looked good,” Browns coach Freddie Kitchens said. “He looks like he is in good shape. He moved around good. It is always good to get good players back.”

Hunt, who is serving an eight-game suspension for off-field incidents committed while he was a member of the Kansas City Chiefs, won’t be available until the Browns’ Week 10 matchup against the Buffalo Bills, but he’ll be able to get back up to speed with the team in the meantime. 

...Hunt, who appeared in one preseason game, is also recovering from sports hernia surgery.

“I think Kareem had a good spring, a good training camp,” Kitchens said. “He went out with an injury in training camp so any reps he gets is good. For the most part, it is just good to have him back in the building, getting him back and continuing to support him in every way possible as a player and as a person.”
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