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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

QuizGuy66 said:
the last $5 is like pulling a jenga piece.  A switch here, a switch there.  Hey I have $1 leftover let me no this.  Oh wait now those two guys have the same bye...

-QG
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For all of us, chances are a previous version we submitted was the winning ticket.

 
Pulled things apart again.  Removed a guy that I've had basically for the entire contest.  Now at $29.  Better balance though on the spending IMO.

Shocked at how steady I've been on the QB choices.  I think I got my 3 and any time I even think about it it comes back to them.

-QG

 
The more I look at it the more I think I finally have my group.

:boxing:

Fun thing - I have done zero of the numerical analysis I have traditionally done seeking value.  Not that I haven't looked at numbers but I have eschewed a very specific methodology I've used before.

That said I still think I am going to have a ton of commonly owned players if I stick with this group of 29.

-QG

 
Steeler said:
calcomatic.com

The site should be updated on 9/6 before the ATL/PHI game.  FBG rosters lock on 9/5 so I can't load any of the rosters before then.
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I just found this and wasn't aware of your site previously.  Is the six digit number not available until the contest locks?  I'm trying to follow the instructions, but there is no number in the URL.  Looking forward to checking out your site....thanks!

 
bayareascott said:
I just found this and wasn't aware of your site previously.  Is the six digit number not available until the contest locks?  I'm trying to follow the instructions, but there is no number in the URL.  Looking forward to checking out your site....thanks!
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The entries are not locked at FBG until 9/5 at around midnight so you can't really do anything until they lock.  I will load all entries at calcomatic at some point on 9/6 before the phi/atl game.

 
What is the most you guys have out on a bye? Week 11 is killing me right now. Out of a 30 man roster, I've got 9 guys @ 29% of my budget out on week 11. 

Side note: I have 7 WRs, with one bye per week from weeks 5-11 (not by design, just happy coincidence). I wish that was true of my other positions. 

 
FF Ninja said:
What is the most you guys have out on a bye? Week 11 is killing me right now. Out of a 30 man roster, I've got 9 guys @ 29% of my budget out on week 11. 

Side note: I have 7 WRs, with one bye per week from weeks 5-11 (not by design, just happy coincidence). I wish that was true of my other positions. 
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I have 29 roster spots, and the most on bye in a single week is 6 (weeks 7 & 9).  Since you went with a 30-man roster, you will still have 21 available, which is fine.  I think it's more important WHO you have off at the same time, not how many (unless you went with a star-studded 18-roster submission).  For example, if you chose 3 stud RB's and 2/3 hopefuls, I would not want my 3 studs to have conflicting byes.

Barring injury, my scariest week is 9, because I went with David Johnson.  If I can get by week 9, my only players left with byes would be my RB3 (Freeman in 10), 2 out 9 WR's (1 in 10, 1 in 11), 2 out of 5 TE's (1 in 10, 1 in 11), my K3 in 10, and my D3 in 11.  I chose no players off in week 12.  I would've loved to have Gurley and Tyreek, but that week 12 bye scared the crap out of me.

 
TheWinz said:
I have 29 roster spots, and the most on bye in a single week is 6 (weeks 7 & 9).  Since you went with a 30-man roster, you will still have 21 available, which is fine.  I think it's more important WHO you have off at the same time, not how many (unless you went with a star-studded 18-roster submission).  For example, if you chose 3 stud RB's and 2/3 hopefuls, I would not want my 3 studs to have conflicting byes.

Barring injury, my scariest week is 9, because I went with David Johnson.  If I can get by week 9, my only players left with byes would be my RB3 (Freeman in 10), 2 out 9 WR's (1 in 10, 1 in 11), 2 out of 5 TE's (1 in 10, 1 in 11), my K3 in 10, and my D3 in 11.  I chose no players off in week 12.  I would've loved to have Gurley and Tyreek, but that week 12 bye scared the crap out of me.
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Yeah, that's why I check % of budget along with number of guys out. 29% is pretty high. It worries me, but I think I'm going to roll with it. I still have 2 QBs and my top 3 RBs. Mainly hurts to be missing my top 2 TE in a TE premium setting. The other part that is worrying is that it is so late in the contest. Only strong teams left in week 11 and I'll be short compared to most of them.

Freeman is your RB3? He's my top RB!

 
Def more concerned with “who” and not “how many”. Unfortunately, my top 2 WRs are out week 11 but I think (hope) I have enough depth to cover it. I only have 5 RB’s so that was my major concern with byes. There were certain players I couldn’t target due to conflicts. 

 
FF Ninja said:
What is the most you guys have out on a bye? Week 11 is killing me right now. Out of a 30 man roster, I've got 9 guys @ 29% of my budget out on week 11. 

Side note: I have 7 WRs, with one bye per week from weeks 5-11 (not by design, just happy coincidence). I wish that was true of my other positions. 
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23 man roster (for the moment). Position ranks based on price

5 week 9 byes (RB1, WR4, TE3&5, K) - 20%

4 week 10 byes (RB3, WR1, TE4, K) - 26%

 
Elevencents said:
Def more concerned with “who” and not “how many”. Unfortunately, my top 2 WRs are out week 11 but I think (hope) I have enough depth to cover it. I only have 5 RB’s so that was my major concern with byes. There were certain players I couldn’t target due to conflicts. 
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Having a large roster, you are sure to have a few bye conflicts.  You just have to ask yourself, "do I want these particular players bad enough?"  For me, with only 3 QB's, 3 K's, and 3 D's, i refused to have a conflict within each of these positions.  As for my 6 RB's, my only conflict was with RB4 and RB6 (Aaron Jones and James Conner).  I wanted both bad enough to take the risk, and it's a relatively early bye in week 7.  At WR, I carried 9, and 2 sets have conflicts (Michael Gallup and Taywan Taylor in week 8, and Keelan Cole and John Ross in week 9).  I wanted all 4 guys, and with 7 other options each week, I should be covered.  I went with 5 TE's, all with different byes, and am happy that my top TE happens to have the earliest (Trey Burton in week 5).

As for bye week conflicts across different positions, that is another important thing to consider.  The 2nd most expensive player on a given week for me is $9 (week 7 with Big Ben at $14, and Aaron Jones at $9).  Relative to their own positions and my roster, I feel like I have 9 studs and 20 hopefuls.  They are Ben and Rivers at QB, Johnson, McCaffrey,and Freeman (Royce, that is) at RB, Goodwin at WR (my only double digit $ guy), Burton at TE, and both CHI and PIT D's.  Of these 9 "studs"  the only conflicts are Burton/CHI D & Ben/PIT D.

P.S.  Regarding byes, my hardest decision was which week 10 RB to take, between Collins, Miller, and Freeman.  I certainly wasn't gonna roster 2 of them, but I think all 3 are great values.  In the end, I went with the guy who I think will finish stronger.

 
simsarge said:
What's the significance of week 12 vs the other cutdowns?
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The assumption is the further you get in the contest, the tougher the competition.  Later byes put you at a possible disadvantage against competition that has made it this far.

 
FF Ninja said:
What is the most you guys have out on a bye? Week 11 is killing me right now. Out of a 30 man roster, I've got 9 guys @ 29% of my budget out on week 11. 

Side note: I have 7 WRs, with one bye per week from weeks 5-11 (not by design, just happy coincidence). I wish that was true of my other positions. 
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With the iteration that I'm 90% sure I'm going to enter:

Week 4 - 2 at $32

Week 5 - 3 at $20

Week 6 - 0

Week 7 - 3 at $13

Week 8 - 5 at $52

Week 9 - 6 at $56

Week 10 - 2 at $22

Week 11 - 4 at $30

Week 12 - 1 at $25

 
Great thread as always and best of luck to everyone with the contest

After much deliberation, my earlier teams had too many late week 9 through 11 byes, so i reconfigured and ended up with a solid, soon to be injury riddled, team that will be knocked out earlier than week 9 hohoho

QB - Matthew Stafford - DET/6 - $15
QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT/7 - $14
QB - Sam Bradford - ARI/9 - $3
RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/9 - $29
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26
RB - Jordan Howard - CHI/5 - $25
WR - Davante Adams - GB/7 - $29
WR - Marquise Goodwin - SF/11 - $13
WR - Kenny Golladay - DET/6 - $11
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/7 - $9
WR - Mike Williams - LAC/8 - $9
WR - Tyrell Williams - LAC/8 - $8
WR - Mohamed Sanu - ATL/8 - $7
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Donte Moncrief - JAX/9 - $5
WR - Cordarrelle Patterson - NE/11 - $3
TE - Ben Watson - NO/6 - $8
TE - Vernon Davis - WAS/4 - $7
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $4
PK - Matt Prater - DET/6 - $5
PK - Caleb Sturgis - LAC/8 - $3
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3
PK - Cody Parkey - CHI/5 - $2
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2

At RB i had a bunch of cheaper guys like Carson,  James white, b Powell, Gore, Blount, and, j hill... but consolidated them into Fournette

Fair warning,every year i go stud at rb it backfires, so avoid this trio!

At qb, i debated afc north fab 4 but they have late byes, so went with Stafford instead of cin,bal,clev

Wr i had Michael Thomas but took his 31 and split into more darts 

My TE are junk, but only need 10 points a week from one.  Last few years i have done either gronk,olson, or Reed and it went terribly. 

 
Comparison of this year's latest version entry vs. Last Year's entry which finished tied for 34th

2017 Entry

  • 3 QB $30
  • 6 RB $86
  • 10 WR $84
  • 4 TE $33
  • 3 PK $8
  • 4 DST $9
Latest Version 2018

  • 3 QB $21
  • 5 RB $71
  • 9 WR $82
  • 5 TE $52
  • 4 PK $9
  • 4 DST $15
Decreased budget on quarterback and increased tight end and DST - latest changes were adding a mid-range TE, decreasing QB cost and upgrading top RB

 
This will be my first time ever submitting a large roster.  I think the largest I’ve had before was 24, this year I have the full 30.  So many values this year and I was still able to get a lot of star power 

 
FF Ninja said:
What is the most you guys have out on a bye? Week 11 is killing me right now. Out of a 30 man roster, I've got 9 guys @ 29% of my budget out on week 11. 

Side note: I have 7 WRs, with one bye per week from weeks 5-11 (not by design, just happy coincidence). I wish that was true of my other positions. 
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Week 11, 7 players at $66. I might have to change that but I like my group right now so I might take the risk.  I'm only counting on 3 of them most weeks, 29 player roster. 

 
Is there a consensus regarding 2 QBs vs. 3 QBs?

On one hand, it's a position that doesn't see a ton of injuries. On the other hand, it's an important position and you need plenty of points there.

 
jdoggydogg said:
Is there a consensus regarding 2 QBs vs. 3 QBs?

On one hand, it's a position that doesn't see a ton of injuries. On the other hand, it's an important position and you need plenty of points there.
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Don't think there's a consensus, if I had to guess I think a smallish majority favor 3 over 2 but it's probably pretty evenly split.  

 
jdoggydogg said:
Is there a consensus regarding 2 QBs vs. 3 QBs?

On one hand, it's a position that doesn't see a ton of injuries. On the other hand, it's an important position and you need plenty of points there.
Click to expand...
:2cents:

Depends which two QBs you choose. Pocket passers with proven history I'd probably go two - say Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. 

Running QB, unproven or might be replaced? I'm probably taking 3. Mariota, Flacco and Sam Darnold might be a good trio but there's more risk.

 
barackdhouse said:
I mean I'm ok with a 2 way chop.
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You'll probably lose out on a coin flip:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

For final standings, tiebreakers will be used for exact three week totals.

1st tiebreaker - Total points of all players rostered in weeks 14-16
2nd tiebreaker - Total points of all WRs rostered in weeks 14-16
3rd tiebreaker - Total points of all RBs rostered in weeks 14-16
4th tiebreaker - Total points of all QBs rostered in weeks 14-16
5th tiebreaker - Total points of all TEs rostered in weeks 14-16
6th tiebreaker - Total points of all PKs rostered in weeks 14-16
7th tiebreaker - Total points of all Defs rostered in weeks 14-16
8th tiebreaker - Coinflip

 
I like the balance - $54 is the most I have benched in any given week.  7 players (out of 29) is the most I have benched in a given week.  There is a different week where I have 6 benched. 

-QG

 
jdoggydogg said:
Is there a consensus regarding 2 QBs vs. 3 QBs?

On one hand, it's a position that doesn't see a ton of injuries. On the other hand, it's an important position and you need plenty of points there.
Click to expand...
There are a few cheap 6$ and under vet qbs, Dalton Flacco Bradford etc, you might as well roster a 3rd qb. If your 2nd qb is hurt and main qb on bye, taking a 0 at qb would be brutal

 
My final answer:
 

QB/ Garappolo, Manning, Dalton

RB/ D. Johnson, McCaffrey, L. Miller, Barber, J. White, Conner [taking a chance that Bell stays home or gets hurt when he does come back]

WR/ Diggs, M. Goodwin, J. Nelson, A. Miller, K. Cole, John Brown, J. Ross

TE/ Engram, Reed, Gesicki

PK/ Vinatieri, Fairbairn

DEF/ Chicago, Cleveland

 
Since everyone owns Conner I'm going to save $4 and put it elsewhere. Going against the grain and doing Bell / no Conner.  

Also going stud QB/TE more than the other positions. 

 
Just blew it up again.  Upgraded Hilton to Brown.  Cost me Doyle and a dart.  How many targets is Brown going to see with Bell out?

 
Not to spread unjustified panic, but I've started reading the DFS forums and there is a significant community that makes compelling arguments that McCaffery will regress this year, based on multiple factors including Norv "Deep Ball" Turner, the presence of CJA who despite his warts is a good pass catcher, etc.

McCaffery has been on my roster for some time now, as I think the Panthers are going to be a much better team this year, but the above perspective is giving me pause....

Hold me...re-assure me....

 
I never understood the late ADP spike for McCaffery, based on several of the factors you mentioned.  I haven’t had him in a single iteration of this contest.

 
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