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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

I'm sweating a bit - currently ranked at 2708 with a score of 158.9 (cutoff 150.6) - surely the cutoff has moved 8.3 points on MNF before.

I have C. Clay and P. Dorsett (-10.7 and - 14.5) so I'm not  expecting any help from them.

 
I'm sweating a bit - currently ranked at 2708 with a score of 158.9 (cutoff 150.6) - surely the cutoff has moved 8.3 points on MNF before.

I have C. Clay and P. Dorsett (-10.7 and - 14.5) so I'm not  expecting any help from them.
Finally, a guy that has the "right" to sweat.  Good luck Steeler.

 
I'm sweating a bit - currently ranked at 2708 with a score of 158.9 (cutoff 150.6) - surely the cutoff has moved 8.3 points on MNF before.

I have C. Clay and P. Dorsett (-10.7 and - 14.5) so I'm not  expecting any help from them.
It has.  That said, there aren't a lot of highly owner guys to move it.  Also the cut line is pretty high relative to when it does move a lot so a lot of people have already posted decent scores (like you).  Lastly the cutline can move a lot when there are 6 teams on bye.  This week Atl, LAC, Tenn, and Dal were on a bye.  You don't have a ton of highly owned guys residing on those teams (a few exceptions) leaving a bunch of donuts around for people to fill.  Rivers was 16th, Gallup 30th...that's it in the original top 50.

 
My overall scores have been pretty decent but I look at my team and think it's just a matter of time. 

QB -- My Mahomes/Goff combo has been huge.  Week 12 is likely going to do me in when I only have Eli going (if he's even playing by then)

RB -- I've had contributions across the board from this group.  Hyde (3), Carson (3), Conner (3), Breida (4), Ivory (2), Barber (1).  No major bye issues remaining here.

WR -- Hill (6), JuJu (6), J. Brown (5) have carried this group.  Josh Gordon and Treadwell are the only other 2 and Gordon has at least contributed a couple times. 

TE -- Kelce and Rudy have been the mainstays.  Couple weeks from Doyle.

K -- Butker has been used all but 1 week when it was Hopkins.

Def -- NYJ/Cincy/TB -- They've all contributed 2-3 times. 

I went heavy with the Chiefs (Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Butker) and week 12 is going to be tough if I make it there.  Luckily the only other guy I'll be missing is Goff that week.  I just hope that's enough.  I've had four weeks over 200 points and only 1 week under 175 so I've been pretty consistent but I'm not holding my breath any week.

 
I'm sweating a bit - currently ranked at 2708 with a score of 158.9 (cutoff 150.6) - surely the cutoff has moved 8.3 points on MNF before.

I have C. Clay and P. Dorsett (-10.7 and - 14.5) so I'm not  expecting any help from them.
Im rank 2693 so about the same went thur 30 teams in the 140s and James white over 27 is the worst case for us but it looks good

 
I've cruised so far, so i didn't want to jinx it by posting.  But it may be grim tonight. Need a big night from Gronk i think or I'm out. 

Still pissed J Hill went on IR. I thought he'd be a great value. 

 
Sweating hard tonight... 160.6 with current cut of 150.6 ... only dorsett (-12.5) could move my score... please gronk.. take another week to rest those injuries!!!!

 
C Clay TE BUF 183

Bills DT BUF 153

S Hauschka PK BUF 74

K Benjamin WR BUF 69

J Allen QB BUF 50

L McCoy RB BUF 49

J Kerley WR BUF 34

Z Jones WR BUF 27

C Ivory RB BUF 24

C Coleman WR BUF 7

N OLeary TE BUF 5

A McCarron QB BUF 1

T Cadet RB BUF 1

J White RB NE 787

P Dorsett WR NE 661

C Hogan WR NE 559

R Gronkowski TE NE 481

J Hill RB NE 432

C Patterson WR NE 383

S Michel RB NE 363

Patriots DT NE 358

J Gordon WR NE 299 (includes any staff entries)

S Gostkowski PK NE 221

R Burkhead RB NE 220

J Edelman WR NE 146

T Brady QB NE 119

J Hollister TE NE 31

K Britt WR NE 19

E Decker WR NE 15

So by my tally that's about 4,987 player-games - only 579 of which are from Bills players.  About 1.25 players per team (1.10 players from New England per team).

No single player appears on even as much as 20% of rosters.

I think this adds up to the cut-line probably not moving all that much to be honest.

Anyway good luck to those sweating The Turk!!

-QG

 
Sorry what I meant was the link to the website that lets you plug in Brady, Gronk and white and shows you which teams still alive have that combo of players?

 
Only team left with M. Gordon, Antonio Brown & A. Thielen.

Favorite pick was Edelman.  Quite a few factors led to low ownership % with a high probability of being a difference maker in the final 3 weeks.  Just have to get there.  

 
Been sitting at 157.05 with no one left tonight.  Last TD by White has brought the 3100 cut line to 155.4.  80 entries between me and the Turk ... and still almost 10 minutes to go.  ? ?☹️

 
I'm pretty sure my survival may come down to whether Carr has a good game week 12, or a clunker. If I can make it until then, that is.

 
My team so far, from studs to duds...

Used 6 times - WR Tyler Lockett, WR John Brown

Used 5.5 times - K Kaimi Fairbairn

Used 5 times - QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB David Johnson, RB Christian McCaffrey, RB James Conner, WR Chris Godwin

Used 4 times - TE Trey Burton

Used 3 times - QB Philip Rivers, TE Jared Cook, D Bears, D Browns

Used 2 times - RB Royce Freeman, RB Aaron Jones, RB Peyton Barber, WR Marquise Goodwin, WR Keelan Cole, TE Dallas Goedert, K Josh Lambo, D Steelers

Used 1 time - WR Michael Gallup, WR Ted Ginn, WR John Ross, WR Taywan Taylor, TE Ryan Griffin

Used .5 times - K Caleb Sturgis

Not used - QB Eli Manning, TE Charles Clay

Pros

QB - averaging 32, happy with the Ben/Rivers combo, and have made it through their byes, expected more from Eli, but he was just so I would have 2 options each week

RB - many are not happy with DJ or CMC, but they have been consistent, Conner has been great, Jones may see an increase in volume, and Barber is holding his job, hopefully Freeman can come back after his week 10 bye a bit healthier

TE - averaging 23.23 from starter, expected more flex scores, Clay has been a dud and Griffin is hurt

K - averaging 11.75 from my cheap trio, but most has come from Fairbairn, hoping Sturgis can win his job back when he returns

D - averaging 12, and all 3 have been used at least twice

Bye weeks - spread out pretty well, and have made it through most of my "studs" byes, no players off week 12, except the hurt ones like Ginn

Cons

WR - chose 9 cheap ones, and have hit bullseyes on only 3 so far, Cole seems to be losing ground, but Goodwin may pick up some slack, the rest are either injured or duds

 
Got through by 8 this week. With Freeman injured and Barkley on bye, I'm going to be sweating the cut line big time due to my RBs. Mahomes can only carry me so far.

 
After missing the cut by 1 point last week, I was wondering if there's a way to see what my points would of been for this week?  Both live calculator and subscriber contest page do not have the information after elimination.

 
After missing the cut by 1 point last week, I was wondering if there's a way to see what my points would of been for this week?  Both live calculator and subscriber contest page do not have the information after elimination.
How are your math skills?

 
Top 5 most owned players by position...

QB - Mahomes (1555), Dalton (798), Darnold (670), Rivers (571), Goff (520) - no change from last week

RB - Conner (2138), Barber (1668), R. Freeman (1149), Breida (1120), McCaffrey (1053) - no change from last week

WR - Cole (1422), Goodwin (1351), John Brown (1084), Ross (1006), Hill (776) - no change from last week

TE - Burton (1156), Goedert (760), Njoku (739), Hooper (405), Gronkowski (382) - Goedert jumped Njoku this week

K - Fairbairn (798), Butker (634), Vinatieri (570), Lambo (522), Carlson (418) - no change from last week

D - CHI (1091), CLE (936), MIN (395), LAR (363), CIN (362) - no change from last week

Overall survival rate is 20.59%

18 - 424/4051 - 10.47%

19 - 228/1741 - 13.10%

20 - 217/1390 - 15.61%

21 - 229/1189 - 19.26%

22 - 248/1104 - 22.46%

23 - 261/1008 - 25.89%

24 - 247/895 - 27.60%

25 - 207/785 - 26.37%

26 - 220/670 - 32.84%

27 - 190/562 - 33.81%

28 - 156/470 - 33.19%

29 - 158/440 - 35.91%

30 - 327/810 - 40.37%

My heroes...

- 15 teams with only 1 QB, 1 team with 9 QB's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/104877.php 

- 7 teams with only 2 RB's, 1 team with 12 RB's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/110209.php

- 16 teams with only 3 WR's, 1 team with 16 WR's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/101917.php

- 75 teams with only 1 TE, 1 team with 7 TE's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/108239.php

- 186 teams with only 1 K, 1 team with 9 K's  http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/107001.php

- 188 teams with only 1 D, 4 teams with 6 D's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/100906.php

 
luckily made it another week! Came in at 177. 20 over the cut or so. Need good ol Melvin Gordon to get back to playing! The last 2 weeks have been tight without him. 

 
69% of the remaining teams have Conner. It's now getting to the point where if he has a big game and you don't have him, it will be very difficult to survive.

 
69% of the remaining teams have Conner. It's now getting to the point where if he has a big game and you don't have him, it will be very difficult to survive.
So the 31% of us that don't own Connor are hoping Leveon returns to a full workload. 

 
That's an exaggeration. 
No, it's not, this week if Conner goes off, and Gurley, Kamara, Hunt, Gordon, White, Elliott, McCaffrey, Barber, Breida, Collins, Carson, Miller, Howard, Jones, Drake, Crowell, Johnson, Murray, Coleman, Thompson, Lewis, Henry, Ingram, Gore, Ekeler, Ware, and Chubb get shut down.  It could happen.

 
No, it's not, this week if Conner goes off, and Gurley, Kamara, Hunt, Gordon, White, Elliott, McCaffrey, Barber, Breida, Collins, Carson, Miller, Howard, Jones, Drake, Crowell, Johnson, Murray, Coleman, Thompson, Lewis, Henry, Ingram, Gore, Ekeler, Ware, and Chubb get shut down.  It could happen.
Do you think Conner owners don't own any of those guys?  Nobody got Conner as their #1 RB at the start of the contest. Everyone who has him also has 1 or 2 (or more) expensive backs. If 2100+ Conner owners get 35 points from him, teams that don't have him are going to start in a huge hole, trying to be one of the 2300 that advance because their RBs are only going to match up with the more expensive backs on the Conner teams, leaving them looking to make up Conner's points elsewhere. Look back at what happened with Hunt last year or Arian Foster the year he exploded (he was only a couple dollars in the contest). 

 
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Nobody got Conner as their #1 RB at the start of the contest. Everyone who has him also has 1 or 2 more expensive backs. If 2100+ Conner owners get 35 points from him, teams that don't have him are going to start in a huge hole, trying to be one of the 2300 that advance because their RBs are only going to match up with the more expensive backs on the Conner teams, leaving them looking to make up Conner's points elsewhere. Look back at what happened with Hunt last year or Arian Foster the year he exploded (he was only a couple dollars in the contest). 
I was just kidding, and I have Conner.  With my other RB's being DJ, CMC, Royce, Aaron Jones, and Barber, I hope the DJ owners get thinned out this week, as long as I ain't one of them.

 

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