What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

+16.05 with Taylor -12.5 tonight. Really regretting missing out on the Conner party. Totally dropped the ball there.

 
On to week 10 ... last year i was ousted in week 10 by .15 of a point.... here's to hoping to do a little better this year!!! good luck to all remaining and those sweating the turk.

 
Sooooooooooooooooo    Just how accurate is calcomatic?     Im sitting at 149.95   and it says the cutoff is 149.3 ......Im sweating  big time.  

 
Moving on to week 10!! Wow...I'm a little shocked as this is my first year and there is obviously some pretty talented folk left. This "The sky is falling" trick is working so with that being said, I'm really not liking my chances for next week. I'm just happy I advanced this far. :kicksrock:  

?

 
Moving on to week 10!! Wow...I'm a little shocked as this is my first year and there is obviously some pretty talented folk left. This "The sky is falling" trick is working so with that being said, I'm really not liking my chances for next week. I'm just happy I advanced this far. :kicksrock:  

?
I think we all feel “The Sky is Falling” anxiety of this contest...that is why we enjoy it so much!  

Congrats to all who have managed to survive to this point!!  Down to 2300 entries I believe? 

 
If someone had told me a month ago that my highest scoring WRs this week would be Gallup with 3 catches and Jaron Brown with 1, I'd have thought I'd be waving goodbye.  Luckily, my RBs and TEs continue to carry me. On to Week 10.

 
Don Quixote said:
About 3 points above the cut with Gallup and Taywan Taylor tonight, at -5 and -5.20 for the two spots.  Going to be tight.  Mixon bye and Freeman out hurt me.
Made the cut, stayed around 3 points above the cut with Gallup giving me just enough.  I think this is the first time I've made it to a double digit week.

 
My lowest week so far at 161.90, but onward we go.  Congrats to all who made it to week 10.  Will be rolling with:

QB - Ben, Rivers, Eli

RB - DJ, CMC, Conner, Aaron Jones, Barber, (Freeman on bye)

WR - Goodwin, Lockett, Cole, Godwin, Gallup, Ross, Taywan Taylor (Brown on bye, Ginn on IR)

TE - Burton, Cook, Goedert (Clay hurt, Griffin on bye)

K - Lambo (Fairbairn on bye, Sturgis waived)

D - CHI, PIT, CLE

 
Finally time for me to do a little write-up of this dealio. I may have made it this far before, but it feels like I haven't. So maybe a decade+ of learning is finally seeping in.

QBs:

Jimmy G (12), Mahomes (11), Derek Carr (9) - $32. Jimmy G was completely dead money, and I really needed him and Carr to have something good in week 12 when the Chiefs have their bye. On the bright side, I'm averaging like 35 points a week with Mahomes/Carr. I didn't really look at any other QBs than Matt Ryan over Jimmy G. Turns out...that would have been a good call, but I wouldn't have had Carr had I done it and I decided 3>2. Tough to say if that worked out or not when one went down for the season at this position, where you expect health not to be an issue for most guys.

RBs:

McCaffrey (26), Ingram (20), Chris Carson (11), Peyton Barber (8), Breida (8), Jordan Wilkins (5), Conner (4) - $82. These guys have been pretty good to me, with a couple good breaks (Conner getting all the starts was unexpected) and only Ingram and Barber as truly disappointing to my own expectations. Wilkins turned out mostly to be a waste, but he did score once for me when everyone sucked. I wanted a stud-ish guy with the receiving element, and I wanted a LOT of depth at this position because it is the most injury-prevalent to me. I figured anyone suspended was a great bet, and almost had Aaron Jones in here too but couldn't quite find the money in places. Even though Ingram hasn't worked out great, there's a lot of season to come still.

WRs:

Josh Gordon (18), Robert Woods (12), Ted Ginn (6), Michael Gallup (6), Dede Westbrook (5), Ryan Grant (4), Phillip Dorsett (2) - $54. Surprisingly good production here for the price I put into it. I really don't think my strategy would change, except that maybe I'd move $5-10 of RB money into another WR in that price range, or into an upgrade of one of my single digit guys. Overall, I figured my flex scores should mostly come from RB and definitely one TE, so I took a shotgun approach to hoping I'd get 2 serviceable wideout scores a week. Anything beyond that is gravy. So far, that's been Woods plus someone else each week, sometimes with a 3rd guy for bonus points.

TEs:

Gronk (26), Kelce (25), Vernon Davis (7) - $58. Given the scoring, I just continue to think TEs are massively undervalued. I had an iteration with Ertz in here that I wish I had kept over Gronk, but the strategy of two top guys and another one I thought had a shot to burst on (Reed injury + Alex Smith connection) has worked out pretty well given Gronk's injury issues all year. I will pound TE again with 2 top guys, and maybe even would try to find a fit for a 3rd decent one plus a bottom level shot next year.

K:

Carlson (3), Hopkins (3), Fairbairn (2), Parkey (2) - $10. I budgeted $10 on kickers, and the only question was 3 or 4. Deciding that one losing a job was a risk, I went with 4. That is exactly what happened to Carlson, though he's back. I've gotten more than 11 points a week from kickers, which I think is critical. I will likely always be a believer in quantity over price here. Not much else to say really.

DST:

Arizona (4), Tennessee (4), Washington (3), Tampa Bay (3) - $14. I really wanted to spend more here. But in the end decided that the prices ramped up too quickly and I was disappointed I couldn't keep it to $10 and get 4 like I did with kickers. I have roughly 7-15 points a week here, with a 6 and a 20 in there. Wish I'd grabbed Cleveland.

Overall: I feel pretty good about my decisions. Nothing macro-strategy wise that I'd really change beyond maybe dropping off a RB or two. My success looks like it will depend heavily on:

Week 12 without Kelce and Mahomes. Worried about both TE and QB, less so about flex.

Gronk in general: could really use some big weeks for him. I haven't learned how to use the quereier yet, and don't really have the time on top of it, but I suspect there are not a ton of Gronk owners left and some huge weeks from him down the stretch would carry me if I can survive.   

 
I RUINED IT!!  I broke the unwritten rule!  Karma will find me a drop a large stool on me! ?

My wife saw me looking at my team and asked me about it...  I guess I made too much of an issue saying it was just some FF contest...  no biggie..  but she wanted to know more...  I was too hesitant and she pounced!   I feel this is a guarantee doom for my Week 10 chances!      :toilet:

 
Made it on to week 10 miracles do happen. Bears And C Patterson out of nowhere to move me on with horrible QB and WR Scores

QB AVE 28.5 Manning this week and that's not good

RB 1 AVE 26.28 Barkley, Elliot and CMC have to all score 20 plus from now on out or it over Barber and Freeman with little chance of helping

RB 2 AVE 16.73

WR 1 AVE21.54 C Patteson, Lockett, Goodwin and Ross this week, J Brown on bye, Fuller and Richardson done for year

WR 2 AVE 13.44

TE AVE 18.05 O Howard, Graham and Hooper All counted last week This group has been solid Need a 20 and flex Score to do good

Flex 1 15.47 

Flex 2 12.63

K Ave 11.63 Hopkins, Janikowski and  Fairbairn two this week Fairbairn bye this week

DEF AVE 12.95 Bears, Redskins and Browns

Need Bell to come back and give me advantage at RB,  Need Patterson to get 15 carries a game, and a QB to put up a decent score so about 2 percent

Flex has been 6 RB, 5 WR and 7 TE

 
Last edited by a moderator:
My lowest week so far at 161.90, but onward we go.  Congrats to all who made it to week 10.  Will be rolling with:

QB - Ben, Rivers, Eli

RB - DJ, CMC, Conner, Aaron Jones, Barber, (Freeman on bye)

WR - Goodwin, Lockett, Cole, Godwin, Gallup, Ross, Taywan Taylor (Brown on bye, Ginn on IR)

TE - Burton, Cook, Goedert (Clay hurt, Griffin on bye)

K - Lambo (Fairbairn on bye, Sturgis waived)

D - CHI, PIT, CLE


If someone had told me a month ago that my highest scoring WRs this week would be Gallup with 3 catches and Jaron Brown with 1, I'd have thought I'd be waving goodbye.  Luckily, my RBs and TEs continue to carry me. On to Week 10.
Nice to hear you guys advance, along with QG. Sorry to hear about jdoggydogg, though. 

All in all,  :)

 
Top 5 most owned players by position...

QB - Mahomes (1247), Dalton (558), Darnold (496), Rivers (416), Goff (415) - no change from last week

RB - Conner (1756), Barber (1221), McCaffrey (929), Breida (835), R. Freeman (827) - CMC jumped Freeman & Breida, Breida jumped Freeman

WR - Cole (1050), Goodwin (958), John Brown (792), Ross (727), Hill (604) - no change from last week

TE - Burton (897), Goedert (560), Njoku (561), Hooper (302), Seals-Jones (278) - Seals-Jones jumped Gronk this week

K - Fairbairn (605), Butker (490), Vinatieri (404), Lambo (387), Parkey (328) - Parkey jumped Carlson this week

D - CHI (945), CLE (699), MIN (320), LAR (269), CIN (245) - no change from last week

Overall survival rate is 15.26%

18 - 298/4051 - 7.36%

19 - 175/1741 - 10.05%

20 - 168/1390 - 12.09%

21 - 174/1189 - 14.63%

22 - 167/1104 - 15.13%

23 - 204/1008 - 20.24%

24 - 173/895 - 19.33%

25 - 158/785 - 20.13%

26 - 164/670 - 24.48%

27 - 142/562 - 25.27%

28 - 132/470 - 28.09%

29 - 112/440 - 25.45%

30 - 240/810 - 29.63%

My heroes...

- 10 teams with only 1 QB, 1 team with 9 QB's 

- 3 teams with only 2 RB's, 1 team with 12 RB's

- 12 teams with only 3 WR's, 1 team with 14 WR's  

- 54 teams with only 1 TE, 1 team with 7 TE's   

- 139 teams with only 1 K, 1 team with 9 K's

- 131 teams with only 1 D, 3 teams with 6 D's

Honorable mention goes to team "Dead Weight"   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/113461.php

 
Top 5 most owned players by position...

QB - Mahomes (1247), Dalton (558), Darnold (496), Rivers (416), Goff (415) - no change from last week

RB - Conner (1756), Barber (1221), McCaffrey (929), Breida (835), R. Freeman (827) - CMC jumped Freeman & Breida, Breida jumped Freeman

WR - Cole (1050), Goodwin (958), John Brown (792), Ross (727), Hill (604) - no change from last week

TE - Burton (897), Goedert (560), Njoku (561), Hooper (302), Seals-Jones (278) - Seals-Jones jumped Gronk this week

K - Fairbairn (605), Butker (490), Vinatieri (404), Lambo (387), Parkey (328) - Parkey jumped Carlson this week

D - CHI (945), CLE (699), MIN (320), LAR (269), CIN (245) - no change from last week
The highlighted players are on my squad, I guess that's why I'm still alive :)

But my QBs stink: J. Winston, J. Flacco, A. Smith   :kicksrock:

 
Top 5 most owned players by position...

QB - Mahomes (1247), Dalton (558), Darnold (496), Rivers (416), Goff (415) - no change from last week

RB - Conner (1756), Barber (1221), McCaffrey (929), Breida (835), R. Freeman (827) - CMC jumped Freeman & Breida, Breida jumped Freeman

WR - Cole (1050), Goodwin (958), John Brown (792), Ross (727), Hill (604) - no change from last week

TE - Burton (897), Goedert (560), Njoku (561), Hooper (302), Seals-Jones (278) - Seals-Jones jumped Gronk this week

K - Fairbairn (605), Butker (490), Vinatieri (404), Lambo (387), Parkey (328) - Parkey jumped Carlson this week

D - CHI (945), CLE (699), MIN (320), LAR (269), CIN (245) - no change from last week
What I have in common with the most owned players by position. 

The interesting thing is how many 

I've only used Darnold once and never used Dalton.

Freeman was used 3 times early (although the scores were not impressive)

Ross had one good week and 5 0s.

Cole had 1 great week, 4 weeks between 8 and 12, and 3 under 5.

Which means that, other than a week here or there, all of those players are dead weight on the teams that picked them. $37 for 1 FLEX score above 20, and 2 QB scores above 30 through 9 weeks.

So are these players heavily on teams that remain because there was a methodology that caused them to be targeted that has proven to be the best (at least for this year)? If so... What exactly is that strategy?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Moving on to week 10!

USAGE, players with remaining bye weeks in bold

M Trubisky 5, A Smith 3, M Mariota 1 (Welcome to the party, MM!

D Johnson 7, M Gordon 7, J Conner 6, P Barber 2, R Freeman 1

J Brown 9, J Landry 7, G Allison 4, K Cole 3, T Taylor 1, T Williams (DAL) 0, J Ross 0.  My WRs are horrible.  Brown has counted every week despite being under six points in three of his last four weeks. 

T Kelce 8, G Olsen 5, D Goedert 2, N Vannett 1 (Welcome to the party, NV!), B Jarwin 0 

H Butker 5, M Crosby 2, J Lambo 2 

Bears 5, Browns 4, Titans 0  

So six byes left (out of 26) and I'm down to $16 unused on four players. 

 
Top 5 most owned players by position...

QB - Mahomes (1247), Dalton (558), Darnold (496), Rivers (416), Goff (415) - no change from last week

RB - Conner (1756), Barber (1221), McCaffrey (929), Breida (835), R. Freeman (827) - CMC jumped Freeman & Breida, Breida jumped Freeman

WR - Cole (1050), Goodwin (958), John Brown (792), Ross (727), Hill (604) - no change from last week

TE - Burton (897), Goedert (560), Njoku (561), Hooper (302), Seals-Jones (278) - Seals-Jones jumped Gronk this week

K - Fairbairn (605), Butker (490), Vinatieri (404), Lambo (387), Parkey (328) - Parkey jumped Carlson this week

D - CHI (945), CLE (699), MIN (320), LAR (269), CIN (245) - no change from last week

Overall survival rate is 15.26%

18 - 298/4051 - 7.36%

19 - 175/1741 - 10.05%

20 - 168/1390 - 12.09%

21 - 174/1189 - 14.63%

22 - 167/1104 - 15.13%

23 - 204/1008 - 20.24%

24 - 173/895 - 19.33%

25 - 158/785 - 20.13%

26 - 164/670 - 24.48%

27 - 142/562 - 25.27%

28 - 132/470 - 28.09%

29 - 112/440 - 25.45%

30 - 240/810 - 29.63%
I think I have surprisngly few most-owned. 28-man roster, unless I couldn't count.

How is Kelce not among the leaders?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
What I have in common with the most owned players by position. 

The interesting thing is how many 

I've only used Darnold once and never used Dalton.

Freeman was used 3 times early (although the scores were not impressive)

Ross had one good week and 5 0s.

Cole had 1 great week, 4 weeks between 8 and 12, and 3 under 5.

Which means that, other than a week here or there, all of those players are dead weight on the teams that picked them. $37 for 1 FLEX score above 20, and 2 QB scores above 30 through 9 weeks.

So are these players heavily on teams that remain because there was a methodology that caused them to be targeted that has proven to be the best (at least for this year)? If so... What exactly is that strategy?
You've probably heard that a rising tide lifts all ships, well a dropping tide lowers all ships.  The cutline is going to fluctuate more based on these players performances then other players.  It's like being in a herd of antelope in Africa.  You don't have to be the fastest antelope, you just need to blend into the herd and not be the slowest.  In this case the slowest is usually the ones with significant injuries or bye week issues.

 
Top 5 most owned players by position...

QB - Mahomes (1247), Dalton (558), Darnold (496), Rivers (416), Goff (415) - no change from last week

RB - Conner (1756), Barber (1221), McCaffrey (929), Breida (835), R. Freeman (827) - CMC jumped Freeman & Breida, Breida jumped Freeman

WR - Cole (1050), Goodwin (958), John Brown (792), Ross (727), Hill (604) - no change from last week

TE - Burton (897), Goedert (560), Njoku (561), Hooper (302), Seals-Jones (278) - Seals-Jones jumped Gronk this week

K - Fairbairn (605), Butker (490), Vinatieri (404), Lambo (387), Parkey (328) - Parkey jumped Carlson this week

D - CHI (945), CLE (699), MIN (320), LAR (269), CIN (245) - no change from last week

Overall survival rate is 15.26%

18 - 298/4051 - 7.36%

19 - 175/1741 - 10.05%

20 - 168/1390 - 12.09%

21 - 174/1189 - 14.63%

22 - 167/1104 - 15.13%

23 - 204/1008 - 20.24%

24 - 173/895 - 19.33%

25 - 158/785 - 20.13%

26 - 164/670 - 24.48%

27 - 142/562 - 25.27%

28 - 132/470 - 28.09%

29 - 112/440 - 25.45%

30 - 240/810 - 29.63%

My heroes...

- 10 teams with only 1 QB, 1 team with 9 QB's 

- 3 teams with only 2 RB's, 1 team with 12 RB's

- 12 teams with only 3 WR's, 1 team with 14 WR's  

- 54 teams with only 1 TE, 1 team with 7 TE's   

- 139 teams with only 1 K, 1 team with 9 K's

- 131 teams with only 1 D, 3 teams with 6 D's

Honorable mention goes to team "Dead Weight"   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/113461.php
First time ever that the big rosters will swamp the smaller rosters

 
Kicking off week 10 with the Panthers and Steelers, and cutting down to 1600 teams:

QB - Ben Roethlisberger (257), Cam Newton (34)

RB - James Conner (1756), Christian McCaffrey (929), Jaylen Samuels (24), CJ Anderson (10)

WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster (233), James Washington (208), Antonio Brown (197), Devin Funchess (52), Curtis Samuel (35), DJ Moore (26)

TE - Jesse James (81), Greg Olsen (62), Vance McDonald (60)

K - Chris Boswell (78), Graham Gano (28)

D - Steelers (165), Panthers (47)

Hoping for great scores from Ben, Conner, CMC, and PIT D.  Let's get it on!

 
Surprisingly, 4 teams still alive have welcomed Dez Bryant from their dead money list.  117 other teams are wondering where he was when they needed him.

 
I realize that Conner is killing everyone, but Greg Olsen’s disappearing act isn’t doing me any favors.  If you’re leaving Cam in the game down 38, leave Olsen in.

 
Team of 18  & Usage:

QB: Brady (5), Dalton (4)

RB: Gurley (9), McCaffrey (8), David Johnson (7)

WR: A. Brown (8), Hill (7), Boyd (6), Samuel (3), Dorsett (2), Patterson (2), Taywan Taylor (1)

TE: Gronk (6), Goedert (3)

PK: Butker (4), Fairbanks (5)

DST: Chi (7), Jax (2)

Player Byes

- Week 10: 1 (Fairbanks)

- Week 11: 4 (Brady, Gronk, Dorsett, Patterson)

- Week 12: 3 (Gurley, Hill, Butker)

Feeling pretty good.. 61.8 after tonight.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
So it looks like teams that didn’t have a piece of TNF will likely be booted this week. Fortunately I had CMC but I’m no lock to advance.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Since I have Roethlisberger and Mahomes @ QB, I'm going to be rooting for a down game for Mahomes to clear some of his many owners out.  Probably won't happen though (at least not until his bye week). 

 
TheWinz said:
The cutline will be whatever Conner scores, because he is owned by 1756 and the cut is down to 1600.
Truer words never spoken.  The cutline is indeed at 13.8.  And only 181 people are below it at the moment. 

So it looks like teams that didn’t have a piece of TNF will likely be booted this week. Fortunately I had CMC but I’m no lock to advance.
There are 146 of those.

 
Healthy start with Ben, CMC, AB, Connor and guest appearance from Samuels who will crack my lineup cuz small roster and 3 rb/wr on a bye.  If this group tanked, I'd have been dead before Sunday.  

 
240 remaining Gronk owners unhappy, as he is already ruled out this week, and on bye next week.  He should be pretty rare by week 12.  Here are the numbers for the week 10 bye players:

QB - Flacco (264), Keenum (190), Cousins (166), Watson (75), Jackson (42)

RB - Freeman (827), Collins (344), Miller (312), Murray (188), Cook (89), Allen (29), Dixon (23), Montgomery (22), Foreman (9), Abdullah (8), Booker (5)

WR - Brown (792), Diggs (429), Sanders (325), Sutton (240), Fuller (218), Hopkins (175), Thielen (173), Coutee (54), Treadwell (37), Crabtree (35), Snead (27), Thomas (11), Hamilton (7)

TE - Griffin (113), Rudolph (100), Butt (65), Hurst (47), Andrews (7), Boyle (3)

K - Fairbairn (605), Tucker (149), McManus (86), Bailey (27)

D - MIN (320), BAL (144), DEN (129), HOU (124)

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top