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🐎 *OFFICIAL 2022 Horse Racing Extravaganza Traveling Road Show Thread - Life Gettin' Better At Big Sandy* 🐎 (1 Viewer)

Judge Smails said:
OK - just looked at the past performances.  Getting a bit clearer now that I see the PP's  though I'll do one more checks on workout reports - some thoughts:

4 horses can be completely eliminated IMO - Fenwick, Happy Jack, Armagnac, Skippylongstocking.  All are just too slow.  OTB - I have no idea what you see in Skippy other than he ran a so-so 3rd in the Wood (if anything it might make me downgrade anybody from the Wood).  He could 't close the deal against optional 75K claimers multiple times.  Many of his Beyers are in the 60's and 70's.  Doesn't even look like a decent allowance horse to me.

All the rest have a shot.  After looking at this more closely I agree with OTB and think Early Voting and Creative Minister both have big chances here.  Really nice 5 furlong breezes coming into this.  Early Voting's 96 (though it was in that Wood) stacks up well.  Was 3 1/2 clear of 3rd after getting caught by Mo.  Been pointed for this the entire time.  Hard for me seeing EV running out of the exacta here.  Creative Minister has improving form I like.  Stiffest test yet but fresh, rates well, and is a neck away from being undefeated. Should like the extra 1/8th over the 1 1/16 races he's been running.  Owners put up $150K and most owners don't like to burn cash for nothing.  Have to think they have a chance.  Anyway, those 2 figure to fire fresh.

So the whole key is going to be which of the 3 horses coming out of Derby weekend fire vs which ones regress.  Surely some will regress as they are likely to be over the top.

Epicenter is the class of the race and he ran an unbelievable race in the Derby.  If he is even the same as the first Saturday in May he wins.  Has the top 3 Beyers in the field.  Can rate right off of Early Voting.  Most likely outcome and I think he fires.  Asmussen confident.  He should get a much more comfortable trip here than in the Derby.  But could he regress? Yes.  Unlikely, but because of that possibility he won't be on all my tickets.  Just most.

Simplification is trickier.  Gained my respect in Kentucky after a lousy FL Derby.  Showed that he could rate and is versatile.  But I think his Derby race was a bit of a mirage.  Didn't really close in the stretch.  It's just that so many horses went backwards.  This will be his 6th race of the year and to me he is the mostly likely to regress.  I have to throw more horses out and Simplification is likely one of them.  Could be wrong - but I think he's over the top and won't run a step on Saturday.

Secret Oath was super impressive in the Oaks and I got to see her in person.  She is a specimen.  I have no doubt she'll run her heart out but still doubt it will be good enough to win and at best she underneath to be in tri's and supers.  Not much value there.  She's yet to run as fast as Epicenter and Early Voting and now has to go back against the boys.  Already failed against the boys once.  She'll make a move but I just don't think she passes them all in the lane.

So I'll key my bets on Epicenter, Early Voting and Creative Minister.  Something like $100 exactas Epicenter on top to those 2, $50 exactas reversed with those 2 over Epicenter, $25 box EV and Creative Minister and I'll play with tri's with those 3.  Maybe $10 tri box.
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Handicapped it perfectly then changed my mind at the 11th hour. So dumb 

 
$20 win pays $134

$5 ex pays $64.50

$5 tri pays $332.50

Netted about $300 since I wheeled the tri and lost the superfecta

 
How long does it take tvg/4njbets to post winnings to an account?

NM - I had the balance hidden though the site still does seem a little wonky

-QG

 
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So the $165,000 purse for 3rd place for Creative Minister's connections means they more or less broke even on the race

-QG

 
Just watched the replay - um so the voice of triple crown seems to goof up a lot of that call in terms of the runners after the leader 

-QG

 
Called Secret Oath second when she had already slipped to 4th.  Then called Simplification 4th at the end when it was Secret Oath who finished 4th 😕

-QG

 
Judge Smails said:
Handicapped it perfectly then changed my mind at the 11th hour. So dumb 
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I like your stuff, especially after the derby.  Went with your initial thoughts & won $1200 on a Tri.   i am a stupid in these things  but actually like horses because of you guys that are so passionate.

makes me feel good to read your commentary.

can't thank you enough including otb & the rest, win, lose or draw.

you have made it enjoyable.

 
shadrap said:
I like your stuff, especially after the derby.  Went with your initial thoughts & won $1200 on a Tri.   i am a stupid in these things  but actually like horses because of you guys that are so passionate.

makes me feel good to read your commentary.

can't thank you enough including otb & the rest, win, lose or draw.

you have made it enjoyable.
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Awesome! Glad you hit!

 
otb_lifer said:
looking into a very plausible angle here, one which i think definitely plays out ...

Yaffert (Bakteen?) is not gonna be sending Army any harder than need be, especially after the unprecedented pace we just saw in the Derby. 

further - Irad jumped on Army, and his bro (Jose) is on EV ... these are the likely pacesetters. 

los hermanos Ortiz have long been accused of gamesmanship when in the same field - enough smoke there, i assure you ... most of it goes on right here at my home tracks. 

so Bakteen isn't gonna press the pace at an outlandish level, and Irad will likely allow his bro to draft behind in very reasonble (glacial, as compared to the KD) splits, if not cede the engine to EV, but never making the urgent push. 

this is significant because it allows EV to put them to sleep on the lead ... the ONLY way this thing melts is if ol' Fenny or HJ (as i hinted to the other day, at Dougie's behest with blinks/new jock) decide they wanna go suicidal. 

i said prior to the Derby that there was no way i could envision anyone but Mess being on the lead as we hit the top of the stretch ... and he sure was, but, well ...

apply similar to EV for the Preak - huge difference is he won't be fried from the earlier fractions - now, question is, can he hold it?

he has been loose on the lead before, with very little pressure - worked in the Withers, failed in the Wood (Mo D flattered him in the Derby, though). 

 Chad pointed here - he's freshened and ready ... i think the factors i alluded to allow him to get away with softer upfront work than anticipated ... he should have plenty left for the stretch 
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sometimes things work out just the way one anticipates ... it's not very often, but this one was a kinda no-brainer.  

1. overcorrection to the Derby, as in nobody frying the pace. 

2. los hermanos Ortiz playing merry-go-round on the front ... airmail special for EV.  as i pointed out, he's gotten goofy out there alone on the lead in previous starts ... he needed a Charmin target, and Irad obliged. 

3. Chad Brown made this horse all about one race ... we just saw it in '19 with Cloud Computing, who took an almost identical path to Pimlico. 

4. once one saw the :24/:49 opening splits, and they didn't have EV to win, or on top of their spreads, then they should've ripped their tix right the #### up - was fait accompli. 

the fact he was let off at 5/1 was obscene ... call it the Rich Strike effect - he wasn't in the race, but his bombs away score influenced the win tote more than any other TC race i can recall ... the cute money came in on the longer shots, and it allowed the 7/2 ml second favorite drift to such ridiculous value - printing money for those who believed.  i hope some of you cashed on this.  

i don't think he's a great horse, but he was more than enough for the task last Saturday ... matter of fact, if one was to tell me EV won't ever win another race, i wouldn't be surprised at all (ditto for Rich Strike).

maybe he resurfaces at the Haskell, or one of the bullring Derbys ... if it's the former, i doubt he hits the board.  he had every conceivable edge for the Preakness, not gonna be that kinda cakewalk ever again. 

Creative Minister showed up, he's gonna factor this summer, reminds me of Charge It - watch out for both going forward. 

Epi & Secret Oath both pulled back, content to make the one run ... did they expect the pace to be ridiculous?  if a punter like me saw this coming, dunno how they decided to both lay back - though Lukas took the same approach in the Arky, when everyone killed Contreras for the #### ride - this time was Saez, but she was overmatched here - her 4th was decent enough. 

ON TO ELMONT. 

 
Hit a $10 exacta in the Preakness, which I was expecting to pay a lot more than what it did, but I will take it. 

Early Voting impressed me with the change in style and Epicenter with another rough trip but was still able to place was also impressing. I don't understand why Secret Oath continues to take the hard way around the track, she can do that against the girls, but the boys beat her up pretty good. Disappointed that Simplification bled during the race. And like other Creative Minister is an interesting name to watch moving forward. 

Can't wait for Belmont stakes day, but less for Belmont Stakes (still intrigued with Mo Donegal and We The People here) and more for the Met Mile matchup of Flightline, Jackie's Warrior and Aloha West. And another great potential race in the Ogden Phipps with Letruska, Malathatt and Search Results.  I love watching Jackie's Warrior, Letruska and Malathatt perform. I enjoy Flightline too, but he runs what seems to be once a year lol (little more than that). 

 
Timmay said:
Hit a $10 exacta in the Preakness, which I was expecting to pay a lot more than what it did, but I will take it. 

Early Voting impressed me with the change in style and Epicenter with another rough trip but was still able to place was also impressing. I don't understand why Secret Oath continues to take the hard way around the track, she can do that against the girls, but the boys beat her up pretty good. Disappointed that Simplification bled during the race. And like other Creative Minister is an interesting name to watch moving forward. 

Can't wait for Belmont stakes day, but less for Belmont Stakes (still intrigued with Mo Donegal and We The People here) and more for the Met Mile matchup of Flightline, Jackie's Warrior and Aloha West. And another great potential race in the Ogden Phipps with Letruska, Malathatt and Search Results.  I love watching Jackie's Warrior, Letruska and Malathatt perform. I enjoy Flightline too, but he runs what seems to be once a year lol (little more than that). 
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Welcome to the thread. If I missed you posting before I apologize. 

Stick around 

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Belmont draw at 11am today!

:deadhorse:

:excited:

-QG
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early forecast is for overnight rain Friday into Saturday, continuing intermittently throughout Belmont Day ... we all saw what WTP did in similar conditions in the Peter Pan ... as if i needed another reason to pound him hard for the win. 

btw, the "undercard" is sensational - best of the year thus far. 

 
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1. We the People (2-1)

Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
Jockey: Flavien Prat

2. Skippylongstocking (20-1)

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

3. Nest (8-1)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

4. Rich Strike (7-2)

Trainer: Eric Reed
Jockey: Sonny Leon

5. Creative Minister (6-1)

Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

6. Mo Donegal (7-2)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Oritz Jr.

7. Golden Glider (20-1)

Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Dylan Davis

8. Barber Road (10-1)

Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

 
Pretty sure I’m going to completely fade Rich Strike and just chalk the Derby up to a fluke race on a surface he loves. 2 great races at CD. Nothing anywhere else. Belmont can be like quicksand to some horses. I don’t think that horse became Secretariat overnight.  Might clunk up but that’s it  

Mo Donegal is the logical horse to key. I’m betting New York horses here. We the People could win or run out. Think he runs. Nest got a bad trip in the Oaks. She will fire here and is the price.  I’ll do exactas and tri’s with those 3. Add in McPeek and Barber Road for 3rd and 4th. 

 
I am so excited to see Flightline on Saturday.  May be the biggest freak I've seen in 30 years.  It's like he makes an Arazi-like move at every call.

3 races - Beyers of 105, 114, 118.  Winning margins 13 lengths, 12 lengths, 11 lengths.  All geared down.  Came back with bullet works.  Monster.

 
Judge Smails said:
I am so excited to see Flightline on Saturday.  May be the biggest freak I've seen in 30 years.  It's like he makes an Arazi-like move at every call.

3 races - Beyers of 105, 114, 118.  Winning margins 13 lengths, 12 lengths, 11 lengths.  All geared down.  Came back with bullet works.  Monster.
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And since east coasters will be dying to see Speaker's Corner take a SoCal horse out, that just might, possibly, be enough money to get yourself a halfway decent price on Flightline...for a 5-horse field anyway.

 
not buying Nest being able to catch that giddyup gear she's desperately gonna need to surpass what should be a well rationed WTP. 

he'll be the pacesetter, of course, and i expect the fractions to be modest, much like the Preakness ... maybe we see one sub :24 qtr, perhaps in the stretch, but the meat of the race should be along the lines of Sir Sominex. 

Prat will have plenty left when needed ... there will be no contentious pace for the majority of the field of closers to chew in to ... this is really not that complicated. 

but which of the closers will choose to play closer to the stalk pack - if not actually be in it?

WTP should merry-go-round 'em, attended closely by Nest/Skip/CM ... then i think we get Pletcher setting Mo D right on their asses - he has to be more fowardly placed than usual, and i would be shocked if he wasn't at least 5th at the 1/4 & 1/2 calls - who knows, maybe los hermanos Ortiz draft each other again like the Preak, with Mo tucked right on the Filly's keester. 

i give Mo best shot here to topple WTP, because precedent for that scenario unfolded in the Wood - with ol' Skipster hitting show dough. 

Richy has been working remarkably well, and is coming in fit as #### ... but i'm not buying him to win on this surface, with this expected pace scenario. 

the Barber will show up, he always does, best hope is bottom of super or hi five. 

sentimental spot for me is Golden Glider ... Jose jumped off to sit on Nest, so Belmont gym rat (and current leading jock) Dylan Davis draws the mount - his first ever in a TC affair ... never underestimate the hometown flava here, i'm pulling for this mutha, and despite getting dusted by WTP in the PP by a good 10 lengths, i think he can run an economical enough race to get up for some minor spoils, which would certainly sweeten them verticals. 

what i expect:

WTP on top 

Mo D/CM best bets for exacta under.

then i'd go Skip/GG/Richy for bottoming out tri.

 
'Capping Buddy In ...

he's all about Mo D, los hermanos Ortiz/Toddfather exacta, and CM. 

6/3,5/3,5 for exacta/tri

6/3,5/3,5/1,2,4,7,8 super

:deadhorse:

he hipped me to an interesting nugget on the Peter Pan winners ... in the past 20 yrs, 9 have gone on to the Belmont, and EACH has regressed in form - by an average of 10 shaved off their PP bsf. 

this includes Tonalist, who still managed to bag the W.  

:shrug:

 
otb_lifer said:
not buying Nest being able to catch that giddyup gear she's desperately gonna need to surpass what should be a well rationed WTP. 

he'll be the pacesetter, of course, and i expect the fractions to be modest, much like the Preakness ... maybe we see one sub :24 qtr, perhaps in the stretch, but the meat of the race should be along the lines of Sir Sominex. 

Prat will have plenty left when needed ... there will be no contentious pace for the majority of the field of closers to chew in to ... this is really not that complicated. 

but which of the closers will choose to play closer to the stalk pack - if not actually be in it?

WTP should merry-go-round 'em, attended closely by Nest/Skip/CM ... then i think we get Pletcher setting Mo D right on their asses - he has to be more fowardly placed than usual, and i would be shocked if he wasn't at least 5th at the 1/4 & 1/2 calls - who knows, maybe los hermanos Ortiz draft each other again like the Preak, with Mo tucked right on the Filly's keester. 

i give Mo best shot here to topple WTP, because precedent for that scenario unfolded in the Wood - with ol' Skipster hitting show dough. 

Richy has been working remarkably well, and is coming in fit as #### ... but i'm not buying him to win on this surface, with this expected pace scenario. 

the Barber will show up, he always does, best hope is bottom of super or hi five. 

sentimental spot for me is Golden Glider ... Jose jumped off to sit on Nest, so Belmont gym rat (and current leading jock) Dylan Davis draws the mount - his first ever in a TC affair ... never underestimate the hometown flava here, i'm pulling for this mutha, and despite getting dusted by WTP in the PP by a good 10 lengths, i think he can run an economical enough race to get up for some minor spoils, which would certainly sweeten them verticals. 

what i expect:

WTP on top 

Mo D/CM best bets for exacta under.

then i'd go Skip/GG/Richy for bottoming out tri.
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good to see you here thru all three legs. GL -

 
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