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🐎 *OFFICIAL 2022 Horse Racing Extravaganza Traveling Road Show Thread - Life Gettin' Better At Big Sandy* 🐎 (1 Viewer)

otb_lifer said:
again, just like EV in the Preak: if we see opening qtrs of :24.3/:49, just rip up yer tix if you don't have WTP to win, or on top of your verts. 

:bye:
Click to expand...
WTP ran a 23.3 and a 47.1 in the Peter Pan and still won easily going away.  Is this basically the same track and surface?  I think the race is 1/8 mile longer, but there was no let up at the end.

I know the Peter Pan was a grade 3 race, and he didn't get challenged, but do you think any kind of duplication of that effort with a similar time will win this race?  

Sorry for all the questions.

 
Chaz McNulty said:
WTP ran a 23.3 and a 47.1 in the Peter Pan and still won easily going away.  Is this basically the same track and surface? 
Click to expand...


it rained a good portion of that afternoon, and WTP was just gliding on a sealed track - so, no - surface will be different today in that respect ... the weather appears to be clear for the Belmont, as of now.

front speed pretty much held all day yesterday, so if the track is playing similar expect some of the cats who are more comfortable with deeper trips getting into closer quarters - if WTP can ration, then unleash for the final stretch, it will be all over up top. 

Chaz McNulty said:
I know the Peter Pan was a grade 3 race, and he didn't get challenged, but do you think any kind of duplication of that effort with a similar time will win this race?  
Click to expand...


the class horses (Stakes winners) in the race today are all of the same closing ilk for the most part, that's why i envision Prat rationing out WTP more economically ... doesn't mean he can't or won't rip off sub :24s, but i just don't see where the urgency will be to use him early, unless, as i said earlier, Nest is gonna make them work harder than anticipated. 

my comnent about "ripping up tix" was a nod to EV's Preakness, where he was never in danger of not being the freshest/fastest horse in the stretch ... i see similar playing out today - who knows, maybe Prat takes a page from Jose and actually drafts behind Nest, rather than dueling ... highly unlikely, but we don't know what Pletcher/Jose have in mind. 

Chaz McNulty said:
Sorry for all the questions.
Click to expand...


np  :hifive:

 
thought i was gonna have to beat odds less than 2-1 on WtP. at five, he's a bargain. Belmonts are won on the front end about 10x more often than the other two TC legs and there aint nobody gonna interfere. i'd like to think it will be a cold exacta with the filly - cuz she's the best horse in the race - but she could get fried being the first to take up the well-rated colt. still she has my place call.

1 - We the People

2 - Next

3 - Rich Strike (only cuz his Derby run was so freakishly good. dont actually see him figgerin' here)

 
14/1 horse pretty much wires 'em in the opener, 6f dirt sprint, and they were busy up front. Dylan Davis bags his first of the day. 

9/1 horse takes the second (1m dirt) wire to wire also - decent clip again - looks like inside speed bias (they were both #2) is continuing to be a thing thus far. 

YA BETTER BE ON THE ENGINE TODAY (much like yesterday, etc)

:popcorn:

 
Unlike the Preakness I’m it going to change my mind. Convinced that Mo and Nest will run really well. Pletcher would not race the filly here if he didn’t believe. Doesn’t have to race her here. Bad trip in the Oaks. I agree on the pace and WTP should control it. Nest will lay closer. And Mo will come. Those 3

 
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we have the "other" super filly, Echo Zulu, coming up vs Matareya in the Acorn for race 3. 

1m on the dirt, pretty much a match race coming in - robust field of FIVE on tap. 

Mat in the 4 hole, EZ in the 5. 

 
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look, there wasn't much in that 4 horse field for Matareya to beat after Echo scratched,  but Prat dove her right to the rail, ripped off :23s the whole way around ... the 1&3 tried to stay close, but just couldn't even make up an inch as Mat/Prat walked home. 

 
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otb_lifer said:
14/1 horse pretty much wires 'em in the opener, 6f dirt sprint, and they were busy up front. Dylan Davis bags his first of the day. 

9/1 horse takes the second (1m dirt) wire to wire also - decent clip again - looks like inside speed bias (they were both #2) is continuing to be a thing thus far. 

YA BETTER BE ON THE ENGINE TODAY (much like yesterday, etc)

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
For a horse that likes to finish second, he showed a lot of fight today. Looks like he got passed.

I love when the track shows an inside speed bias. I will definitely look for inside speed the rest of the way on the dirt.

 
BROOKLYN (race 5) coming up in roughly 25 mins. 

big harbinger for the Belmont, as this is also at 12f ... keeping a keen eye on Prat with the #3 here ... should break like a rocket right to that rail - and get the early calls - then we see how he rates on 'em. 

Cox trained.

 
otb_lifer said:
BROOKLYN (race 5) coming up in roughly 25 mins. 

big harbinger for the Belmont, as this is also at 12f ... 
Click to expand...


ok, so ... this has been a souped up surface past couple days - but now they were going 12f. 

they went :24.2/:50/1:15

lead pack loafed around, with the 5 having the slight lead ... Saez on the 7 rated beautifully, tucked right behind ... merry-go-round the whole way to the stretch (check those snoozy fractions).

the 5 ceded, and Saez juiced the 7 home from the two path ... Prat got the 3 up for second, after bobbing out the gate, and spotting 'em a couple lengths from jump. 

WTP is looking better. and better. he will not fold in the stretch if they let him get away with similar splits. 

YMMV, of course - but this was a good omen for those backing the PP winner ... lest Prat stumbles out the gate again ...

:shrug:

 
Belmont odds as of 2:20p ET:

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Belmont_Stakes_2022_Updated_win_odds_for_Saturdays_race_123

1. We the People  6-1

2. Skippylongstocking  9-1

3. Nest (f)  4-1

4. Rich Strike  7-2

5. Creative Minister  7-1

6. Mo Donegal  5-2

7. Golden Glider12-1

8. Barber Road  7-1

I am boxing up the 1-5-6-7 but holding off on my win pick for now.  Was thinking the 5 but that goes against my policy of just copying off of OTB ;)

Probably will flip to 1 for my $10 win bet and then do a $2 saver with the 5.

Is there a minimum number of horses on the .10 superfecta?  Might work it out so my stake in the race is 44.40 otherwise :)

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Belmont odds as of 2:20p ET:

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Belmont_Stakes_2022_Updated_win_odds_for_Saturdays_race_123

1. We the People  6-1

2. Skippylongstocking  9-1

3. Nest (f)  4-1

4. Rich Strike  7-2

5. Creative Minister  7-1

6. Mo Donegal  5-2

7. Golden Glider12-1

8. Barber Road  7-1

I am boxing up the 1-5-6-7 but holding off on my win pick for now.  Was thinking the 5 but that goes against my policy of just copying off of OTB ;)
Click to expand...


i LOVE the 5, playing him (and Mo) on my exacta under WTP.

my capping buddy loving CM equally as much. 

he has moved forward every race, and his Preakness run was none too shabby - he's live. 

 
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Belmont I settled on a $20 trifecta with Mo and CM in first and second.   Hoping for a bomb in third.   

If I lose to WTP, so be it.   $240 investment.

 
otb_lifer said:
weather looks like it will cooperate for the most part ... high of 80, with possibility of showers from 3 to 4 pm.
Click to expand...


just got to the oater in Jerzee, and here come the sprinkles, right on cue ...

:popcorn:

 
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Okay so here we go $44.40 staked:

$10 win on 5

$2 place and show on 5

$1 exbox 1-5-6-7

$0.50 tribox 1-5-6-7

$0.10 superbox 1-5-6-7

$2 win on 1

$1 gray exacta box 5-8

:deadhorse:

Good luck all!

-QG

 
Just read this on another site

I watched the DRF Clocker Mike Welsh and he said that Creative Minister got HOT twice this week which he says is a bad sign. Just a heads up.

 
Judge Smails said:
Just read this on another site

I watched the DRF Clocker Mike Welsh and he said that Creative Minister got HOT twice this week which he says is a bad sign. Just a heads up.
Click to expand...


WTP's ####show in the Arky was put down to same - totally washed in the post parade - 9th place finish, behind some stiff ### mules, to boot ... only blemish on his record thus far. 

also, CM is the only horse on the full TC sched ... he ran on the Derby undercard/in the Preak/now the Belmont. 

unraced at 2, so ... maybe the lack of foundation is rearing - will keep an eye on the paddock/walks. 

 
Nice little $10 box there.  Wish I could have given more props to the 3 for third.  Played a little it with the 12 in exotics with the 4 and 5.  Perfect spot and faded.  

 
$84 spent on Belmont Stakes

$50 win on 1

$10 straight exactors on 3-1 and 6-1

$4 Straight Tri on 3-1-4

Wife exactor box 6-2; Daughter 1 exactor box 3-6; Daughter 2 exactor box 4-8.

Good luck to all!

 
Something has to give in this race.  Doubt Flightline and Speakers Corner can ding dong all the way around.  And who knows about the break.  I like Aloha West to get 2nd and I'll play a little with Irad too

 
Wonder how long the Rich Strike effect is gonna be on Triple Crown race odds.  Short term pain for the :shark: s is gonna be long term gain.

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Wonder how long the Rich Strike effect is gonna be on Triple Crown race odds.  Short term pain for the :shark: s is gonna be long term gain.

-QG
Click to expand...


hey, if it pushes EV to an obscene 5/1 in the Preak, and can give me 3/1 or higher on WTP ... let 'em go! 

we profit. 

 
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