2012 Coach Otis All-Value Team (1 Viewer)

[Otis]

Some of the fellas picked in here had decent games yesterday...

QB - Jay Cutler - 292 yards, 2 TDs

RB - Reggie Bush - 72 total yards, 1 TD

WR -Brandon Marshall - 144 yards, 1 TD

QB - Peyton Manning - "Top5 QB [He's still way better than you think]" - 345 and 3

RB - Kendall Hunter - "Top20 RB [Gore is in twilight mode; Hunter starts to take over midseason and shines]" - 81 rushing yards

RB - Alex Green - "Top20 RB [He's healthy, and the other options are unimpressive]" - Now's his chance with Benson out...

 

[Otis]

A little midseason rating for Coach....

Jay Cutler -- MISS

God he's been awful.

Reggie Bush -- HIT

He's RB 10 in my league (standard scoring with some bonuses built in). That's pretty darn good value.

LeGarrette Blount -- JURY STILL OUT

He hasn't been given the chance to produce yet, but despite all the preseason hype, Doug Martin has been a total bore, and all the talk is about Blount getting more and more involved. He may well be the missing piece that gets lots of teams into the playoffs and into championships. We'll see.

Brandon Marshall -- HIT

WR7 so far in my main league, and he already had his bye. He's right around WR5 as projected.

Greg Little -- MISS

Terrible.

Jacob Tamme -- MISS

Missing so far.

Peyton Manning -- HIT

Protected him top 5, he's QB2 in my league currently. Great value.

Kendall Hunter -- JURY STILL OUT

Gore is starting to show wear with rib issues coming out of this last game. We had predicted "Gore is in twilight mode; Hunter starts to take over midseason and shines." This may be the time...

Alex Green -- JURY STILL OUT

He's now got the starting job. A lot of folks didn't expect that preseason. We'll see what he does with it.

Mike Williams (TB) -- HIT

We predicted top15 WR; he's around WR20 in my league now, but pretty much a hit overall in terms of a value play since his ADP was near WR50 before the season.

Leonard Hankerson -- MISS

Not sure what's happening here, but he's underperformed so far.

4 big hits in Manning, Bush, Marshall, and Mike Williams; Jury still out on 3 (though I really like the positive news we've seen on all three recently); 4 misses.

Too early to call.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

        .~~~~-.       /    ,__`)      |      \o/|'-.      |         /  ,\      |        ('--./      /         \     /  ,  ,  ,  \     `--'--'--'--'

 

[Raider Nation]

        .~~~~-.       /    ,__`)      |      \o/|'-.      |         /  ,\      |        ('--./      /         \     /  ,  ,  ,  \     `--'--'--'--'

I'm about to be 12-0 in both leagues where I followed Coach's strategy to the letter.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

A little midseason rating for Coach....

Jay Cutler -- MISS

God he's been awful.

Reggie Bush -- HIT

He's RB 10 in my league (standard scoring with some bonuses built in). That's pretty darn good value.

LeGarrette Blount -- JURY STILL OUT

He hasn't been given the chance to produce yet, but despite all the preseason hype, Doug Martin has been a total bore, and all the talk is about Blount getting more and more involved. He may well be the missing piece that gets lots of teams into the playoffs and into championships. We'll see.

Brandon Marshall -- HIT

WR7 so far in my main league, and he already had his bye. He's right around WR5 as projected.

Greg Little -- MISS

Terrible.

Jacob Tamme -- MISS

Missing so far.

Peyton Manning -- HIT

Protected him top 5, he's QB2 in my league currently. Great value.

Kendall Hunter -- JURY STILL OUT

Gore is starting to show wear with rib issues coming out of this last game. We had predicted "Gore is in twilight mode; Hunter starts to take over midseason and shines." This may be the time...

Alex Green -- JURY STILL OUT

He's now got the starting job. A lot of folks didn't expect that preseason. We'll see what he does with it.

Mike Williams (TB) -- HIT

We predicted top15 WR; he's around WR20 in my league now, but pretty much a hit overall in terms of a value play since his ADP was near WR50 before the season.

Leonard Hankerson -- MISS

Not sure what's happening here, but he's underperformed so far.

4 big hits in Manning, Bush, Marshall, and Mike Williams; Jury still out on 3 (though I really like the positive news we've seen on all three recently); 4 misses.

Too early to call.

Note:CHI - No. 28 Team FFP/g QB

MIA - No. 6 Team FFP / g RB

TB - No. 4 Team FFP / g RB

CHI No. 14 Team FFP / g WR

CLE - No. 28 Team FFP / g WR

DEN - No. 8 Team FFP / g TE

DEN - No. 7 Team FFP / g QB

SF - No. 10 Team FFP / g RB

GB - No. 32 FFP / g RB

TB - No. 8 Team FFP / g WR

WAS - No. 12 FFP / g WR

I noticed this last year or maybe the year before - you're actually quite good at finding where there will be production in various passing/rushing/receiving games on a team level.

 

[Premier]

But if you want to do this hawk-style, you take Blount in the 6th round of your draft and watch him do the same, except when he’s doing it he’ll look like a locomotive smashing through Legotown, and the guy who drafted Martin and laughed at you during the draft will be conspicuously offline and unavailable Sunday night.

I think this is my favorite part.

 

[packseasontix]

Haha I would love to see that 12-0 team...

I want the league link and be able to see everything cause there is no way you should be 12-0 with the main lineup he suggested.

 

[Otis]

A little midseason rating for Coach....

Jay Cutler -- MISS

God he's been awful.

Reggie Bush -- HIT

He's RB 10 in my league (standard scoring with some bonuses built in). That's pretty darn good value.

LeGarrette Blount -- JURY STILL OUT

He hasn't been given the chance to produce yet, but despite all the preseason hype, Doug Martin has been a total bore, and all the talk is about Blount getting more and more involved. He may well be the missing piece that gets lots of teams into the playoffs and into championships. We'll see.

Brandon Marshall -- HIT

WR7 so far in my main league, and he already had his bye. He's right around WR5 as projected.

Greg Little -- MISS

Terrible.

Jacob Tamme -- MISS

Missing so far.

Peyton Manning -- HIT

Protected him top 5, he's QB2 in my league currently. Great value.

Kendall Hunter -- JURY STILL OUT

Gore is starting to show wear with rib issues coming out of this last game. We had predicted "Gore is in twilight mode; Hunter starts to take over midseason and shines." This may be the time...

Alex Green -- JURY STILL OUT

He's now got the starting job. A lot of folks didn't expect that preseason. We'll see what he does with it.

Mike Williams (TB) -- HIT

We predicted top15 WR; he's around WR20 in my league now, but pretty much a hit overall in terms of a value play since his ADP was near WR50 before the season.

Leonard Hankerson -- MISS

Not sure what's happening here, but he's underperformed so far.

4 big hits in Manning, Bush, Marshall, and Mike Williams; Jury still out on 3 (though I really like the positive news we've seen on all three recently); 4 misses.

Too early to call.

Note:CHI - No. 28 Team FFP/g QB

MIA - No. 6 Team FFP / g RB

TB - No. 4 Team FFP / g RB

CHI No. 14 Team FFP / g WR

CLE - No. 28 Team FFP / g WR

DEN - No. 8 Team FFP / g TE

DEN - No. 7 Team FFP / g QB

SF - No. 10 Team FFP / g RB

GB - No. 32 FFP / g RB

TB - No. 8 Team FFP / g WR

WAS - No. 12 FFP / g WR

I noticed this last year or maybe the year before - you're actually quite good at finding where there will be production in various passing/rushing/receiving games on a team level.

The Algorithm Works.

 

[bucsbaby]

Bush, Marshall, Manning

 

[Raider Nation]

Haha I would love to see that 12-0 team...I want the league link and be able to see everything cause there is no way you should be 12-0 with the main lineup he suggested.

A lot of it was based on free agent pickups recommended by Coach Otis via PM. The guy knows his stuff.

 

[efactor]

You want to really show the guys in your league who's boss? Throw away your first round pick. Seriously. Toss it. When you're sitting around the table and your pick comes up and everyone looks at you, just politely say "pass." Do the same thing in the second round. Let them laugh. That's just a sign of their insecurity. The quiet ones are the ones who are realizing, at that very moment, that they aren't dealing with just any ordinary fantasy magic football guy. This is a real life hawk, sitting right across the table from them, and the one thing that is going through their mind is what they should be putting in the Memo field of the $50 check they are writing to you, because this fantasy season has already ended for them. It’s like the schoolyard bully taking everyone’s lunch money, except he doesn’t have to ask--the kids just line up and fork it over.

I just wanted to thank you again Coach for this amazing piece of advice. Mouths dropped when I passed in the first and the real fear set in when the 2nd round pick was forfeited. Needless to say, the strategy has worked to perfection so far as I have dominated the league through the Thanksgiving games.Although this was just a very competitive local league, I plan on doing the same thing in FFPC next year. 200K in the bag.You're a true visionary.............

 

[Otis]

You want to really show the guys in your league who's boss? Throw away your first round pick. Seriously. Toss it. When you're sitting around the table and your pick comes up and everyone looks at you, just politely say "pass." Do the same thing in the second round. Let them laugh. That's just a sign of their insecurity. The quiet ones are the ones who are realizing, at that very moment, that they aren't dealing with just any ordinary fantasy magic football guy. This is a real life hawk, sitting right across the table from them, and the one thing that is going through their mind is what they should be putting in the Memo field of the $50 check they are writing to you, because this fantasy season has already ended for them. It’s like the schoolyard bully taking everyone’s lunch money, except he doesn’t have to ask--the kids just line up and fork it over.

I just wanted to thank you again Coach for this amazing piece of advice. Mouths dropped when I passed in the first and the real fear set in when the 2nd round pick was forfeited. Needless to say, the strategy has worked to perfection so far as I have dominated the league through the Thanksgiving games.Although this was just a very competitive local league, I plan on doing the same thing in FFPC next year. 200K in the bag.You're a true visionary.............

 

[packseasontix]

Haha I would love to see that 12-0 team...I want the league link and be able to see everything cause there is no way you should be 12-0 with the main lineup he suggested.

A lot of it was based on free agent pickups recommended by Coach Otis via PM. The guy knows his stuff.

HAHAHAHAHAI drafted so bad but boy did the FA wire help me out... If thats the case why isn't he posting a weekly waiver wire pick up instead of a draft post?Still didn't post your league either.

 

[Raider Nation]

 

[efactor]

A lot of non believers. :(

 

[packseasontix]

Oh I believe, I believe that if you stuck with Otis Team you are paying me this year, haha.

By the way a true hawk gives up his first 7 rounds and doesn't put anyone on the bench and just goes off the waiver wire.

 

[Otis]

Oh I believe, I believe that if you stuck with Otis Team you are paying me this year, haha.By the way a true hawk gives up his first 7 rounds and doesn't put anyone on the bench and just goes off the waiver wire.

I did this in HyperExtremeEliteXIIVL a few years back. Took 2nd overall.

 

[packseasontix]

Oh I believe, I believe that if you stuck with Otis Team you are paying me this year, haha.By the way a true hawk gives up his first 7 rounds and doesn't put anyone on the bench and just goes off the waiver wire.

I did this in HyperExtremeEliteXIIVL a few years back. Took 2nd overall.

Oh thats the king of fantasy football league right? Wow then I take back everything you must be a fantasy god!

 

[Raider Nation]

packseasontix, I am a Nigerian prince and I have a windfall of cash for you.

 

[mr roboto]

packseasontix, I am a Nigerian prince and I have a windfall of cash for you.

Spit the bait!!!!

 

[CalBear]

Week 16 wrap up:

QB

Jay Cutler

You're welcome.

You'll get him around QB12, but he'll finish around QB5.

4300 yds, 24 TDs

Currently QB24, 2776 yards, 18 TDs. I think that one left a crater.

RB

Reggie Bush

Draft Bush in the 6th round. Send me a fruit cake and Christmas card in December, and watch him finish a top 5-10 RB, and then throw on some USC highlight reels and nod at your television as you pat yourself on the back for remembering that this guy is really, really good at football.

1308 rushing, 322 receiving, 13TDs

LeGarrette Blount

If you want to do this in shark fashion, go ahead and draft Peterson in the 2nd round and then pretend you're a genius when he runs for 150 yards and 2 TDs. But if you want to do this hawk-style, you take Blount in the 6th round of your draft and watch him do the same, except when he's doing it he'll look like a locomotive smashing through Legotown, and the guy who drafted Martin and laughed at you during the draft will be conspicuously offline and unavailable Sunday night.

1150 rushing, 180 receiving, 7 TDs

Bush: RB12, 960 rushing, 269 receiving, 8 TDs. Wrong but not terribly so.Blount: 151 rushing, 2 receiving. Martin, RB3, 1312 yards. Ouch.

WR

Brandon Marshall

Top 5WR finish

Greg Little

Look, when you were a kid, you didn't get pissed off if Santa brought you your fire truck a year early. Don't be mad at us either. Just enjoy the damn truck.

Off the board around WR35-40; top 20WR finish

Marshall: Currently tied for #1WR, 113/1466/11. A bonafide hit, although given that he was being drafted early in the third round, dangerously like a Shark pick.Little: 50/609/3. Nearly bad enough to balance out the Marshall pick.

TE

Jacob Tamme

Top5 TE finish

51/542/2, TE25.

BONUS PICKS

[*]QB - Peyton Manning - Top5 QB [He's still way better than you think]

[*]RB - Kendall Hunter - Top20 RB [Gore is in twilight mode; Hunter starts to take over midseason and shines]

[*]RB - Alex Green - Top20 RB [He's healthy, and the other options are unimpressive]

[*]WR - Mike Williams (TB) - Top15 WR [Resurgence as VJax takes more attention than he deserves]

[*]WR - Leonard Hankerson - Top20 WR [How's he really going off the board around WR60?

Manning: 4355/34, #7 QB right now but I'll give you a hit on that.Hunter: 71/371/2. Gore, #10 RB. 29 isn't twilight.

A.Green: 135/464, 18/25. Well outscored by S.Greene and B.Green-Ellis, not to mention Mike Tolbert.

M.Williams: 57/931/8, WR17. Not a complete miss, but V.Jackson is WR5.

Hankerson: 37/531/3. WR62. That's how.

So, two hits (Marshall and Manning), two mehs (Bush and M.Williams), and seven amazingly bad picks. Much better than the 2011 edition, but still well below the monkeys-throwing-darts level.

And the hawk shtick is getting old; maybe you should go with monkeys next year.

 

[Otis]

Won my league again this year.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

Won my league again this year.

Doesn't make the picks any less horrific.

 

[identikit]

Won my league again this year.

But not Tim's league.

 

[Sarnoff]

If you go pick by pick, Otis probably ends up with a better track record than Dodds.

I, for one, thank Coach Oat. Won my league again this year thanks to following his advice. It's not his fault the pretenders on here that think they're hawks just can't grasp what he's talking about here. All in all, a solid effort all around.

 

[Raider Nation]

If you go pick by pick, Otis probably ends up with a better track record than Dodds.I, for one, thank Coach Oat. Won my league again this year thanks to following his advice. It's not his fault the pretenders on here that think they're hawks just can't grasp what he's talking about here. All in all, a solid effort all around.

 

[CalBear]

If you go pick by pick, Otis probably ends up with a better track record than Dodds.

Uh.

I, for one, thank Coach Oat. Won my league again this year thanks to following his advice. It's not his fault the pretenders on here that think they're hawks just can't grasp what he's talking about here. All in all, a solid effort all around.

You're right, I must just not understand why taking Blount over D.Martin was a really great move.

 

[BassNBrew]

Any chance we can get a playoff edition Coach Oats?

 

[Dark Matter]

Any chance we can get a playoff edition Coach Oats?

:subscribe:

 

[Sarnoff]

If you go pick by pick, Otis probably ends up with a better track record than Dodds.

Uh.

Dodds was still predicting Chris Johnson to score 20+ points per week every week this year. Dodds is always behind the curve.

I, for one, thank Coach Oat. Won my league again this year thanks to following his advice. It's not his fault the pretenders on here that think they're hawks just can't grasp what he's talking about here. All in all, a solid effort all around.

You're right, I must just not understand why taking Blount over D.Martin was a really great move.

Look, if you want to cherry pick single individual selections out of context, then you're not getting the point. And we can run the same exercise with Dodds' picks and show how far off he was this year. "Darren McFadden & Chris Johnson ahead of Doug Martin, sharks!" "Kevin Smith before CJ Spiller this year, guys!" "Michael Vick top 5... build your team around him; Peyton Manning not in the top 12 this year... he's just not a starter!" "Julio Jones will finish #2, ahead of AJ Green, he's ATL's #1 this year!!!"



It's about the whole vision of the package, and Coach Oat brought it this year in a way that Dodds just wishes he could match next year.

 

[David Yudkin]

QB Jay Cutler: You’ll get him around QB12, but he’ll finish around QB5. 4300 yds, 24 TDs.

Currently QB25 with 2319/13 based on total fantasy points. Ranks 23rd based on ppg. This one has to be considered a decent sized miss.

RB Reggie Bush: Draft Bush in the 6th round. Watch him finish a top 5-10 RB. 1308 rushing, 322 receiving, 13TDs

Bush currently RB 12. Top 5-10 was a little agreesive, but he did well in the playoffs so that's a plus. Call this one a hit.

RB LeGarrette Blount: Take Blount in the 6th round. 1150 rushing, 180 receiving, 7 TDs

Blount currently RB 86 with 151 rushing yards, 2 receiving yards, and 2 TD. Fail.

WR Brandon Marshall: Most folks in the water have Marshall pegged outside the top 10. It’s not the most incredible value pick in the world, but he’ll finish top 5.

Home run here. Marshall currently WR2. I personally thought other guys would do more and that the air attack would not be only Marshall.

WR Greg Little: Off the board around WR35-40; top 20WR finish.

Currently WR 59. Didn't really pan out. Not a huge investment, but still a miss.

TE Jacob Tamme: We haven’t seen an easier lock at top 5 TE who is regularly drafted outside the top 10. It’s silly really.

Currently TE25. Miss.

QB Peyton Manning: Top 5 QB

Currently QB6. Close enough. Hit.

RB Kendall Hunter: Top 20 RB [Gore is in twilight mode; Hunter starts to take over midseason and shines]

Currently RB56 and a generic back up. Swing and a miss.

RB Alex Green: Top 20 RB [He's healthy, and the other options are unimpressive]

Currently RB52. Miss.

WR Mike Williams (TB): Top 15 WR [Resurgence as VJax takes more attention than he deserves]

Currently WR17. Close enough. Hit.

WR Leonard Hankerson: Top 20 WR [How's he really going off the board around WR60?]

Currently WR62. Maybe people knew he would be around WR60. Miss.

Hit on Bush, Marshall, Manning, and Williams. Not even close on the rest. Not great, not horrible.

 

[BassNBrew]

QB Jay Cutler: You’ll get him around QB12, but he’ll finish around QB5. 4300 yds, 24 TDs.Currently QB25 with 2319/13 based on total fantasy points. Ranks 23rd based on ppg. This one has to be considered a decent sized miss. RB Reggie Bush: Draft Bush in the 6th round. Watch him finish a top 5-10 RB. 1308 rushing, 322 receiving, 13TDsBush currently RB 12. Top 5-10 was a little agreesive, but he did well in the playoffs so that's a plus. Call this one a hit. RB LeGarrette Blount: Take Blount in the 6th round. 1150 rushing, 180 receiving, 7 TDsBlount currently RB 86 with 151 rushing yards, 2 receiving yards, and 2 TD. Fail.WR Brandon Marshall: Most folks in the water have Marshall pegged outside the top 10. It’s not the most incredible value pick in the world, but he’ll finish top 5.Home run here. Marshall currently WR2. I personally thought other guys would do more and that the air attack would not be only Marshall.WR Greg Little: Off the board around WR35-40; top 20WR finish.Currently WR 59. Didn't really pan out. Not a huge investment, but still a miss. TE Jacob Tamme: We haven’t seen an easier lock at top 5 TE who is regularly drafted outside the top 10. It’s silly really. Currently TE25. Miss. QB Peyton Manning: Top 5 QBCurrently QB6. Close enough. Hit.RB Kendall Hunter: Top 20 RB [Gore is in twilight mode; Hunter starts to take over midseason and shines]Currently RB56 and a generic back up. Swing and a miss.RB Alex Green: Top 20 RB [He's healthy, and the other options are unimpressive]Currently RB52. Miss.WR Mike Williams (TB): Top 15 WR [Resurgence as VJax takes more attention than he deserves]Currently WR17. Close enough. Hit.WR Leonard Hankerson: Top 20 WR [How's he really going off the board around WR60?]Currently WR62. Maybe people knew he would be around WR60. Miss.Hit on Bush, Marshall, Manning, and Williams. Not even close on the rest. Not great, not horrible.

Good enough for a staff position?

 

[CalBear]

Look, if you want to cherry pick single individual selections out of context, then you're not getting the point.

The point is that two hits, two not-bad picks, and seven disasters is a terrible result. Way worse than Dodds.

 

[sporthenry]

Look, if you want to cherry pick single individual selections out of context, then you're not getting the point.

The point is that two hits, two not-bad picks, and seven disasters is a terrible result. Way worse than Dodds.

Well who did Dodds say was underrated and overrated before the year. I'd say most fantasy guys agree on most guys and it is the 10-20 guys that you differ on that sets you above the rest. We'll look at Berry for example mainly b/c it was the easiest to find http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=TMR120816

Now, I've already done my "Loves" and "100 Facts" (which is mostly just a sleeper/bust column in disguise), but to be honest, there's a lot of names. So, to try to narrow it down some, here are the 10 guys I feel the strongest about their performance exceeding their draft day value. The reasoning for each choice is covered in depth in Love/Hate and 100 Facts.1. Aaron Rodgers and Brady as the top two overall picks, the idea of needing to take quarterbacks and elite tight ends early, as outlined in the Draft Day Manifesto. Rodgers is money in the bank, of course, but a crazy monster year coming for Brady, and Jimmy Graham surpasses Rob Gronkowski as the top-scoring tight end.2. Matt Forte, a legit No. 1 fantasy running back this year.3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis; nothing sexy, just solid production and double-digit touchdowns.4. Brandon Marshall. No disrespect to Matt Moore or anything, but ...5. Brandon Lloyd. Seriously, I can't write any more about him.6. Peyton Hillis. Brian Daboll is magic.7. Percy Harvin. Among my favorite stats from Love/Hate: Once Christian Ponder took over in Week 7, Harvin led all wide receivers in offensive touches with 100. Second-most was Wes Welker ... with 74!8. Antonio Brown. Even his Twitter avatar rules.9. Torrey Smith. He's getting the deep targets; just needs a few more of them to land near him.10. Fred Davis. "RG3 rolls right, pressure comes, goes through his progressions and ... finds Davis in the flat! That's another Washington Redskins ... First down!"

Hit: Percy (WR 35 and played 8 games), MarshallMeh: A-Rod (decent but nothing spectacular), Forte, Brown (injured performed up to task), Smith (ADP WR29, Actual WR21)BJGE (ADP RB23 Actual RB 17)Miss: Lloyd, Hillis, DavisI guess you could bump up BJGE or Smith to hits but they sort of evened out with Brown/Forte who were both underwhelming with respect to ADP. So 2 hits, 5 not bad picks, and 3 busts.

 

[Otis]

QB Jay Cutler: You’ll get him around QB12, but he’ll finish around QB5. 4300 yds, 24 TDs.Currently QB25 with 2319/13 based on total fantasy points. Ranks 23rd based on ppg. This one has to be considered a decent sized miss. RB Reggie Bush: Draft Bush in the 6th round. Watch him finish a top 5-10 RB. 1308 rushing, 322 receiving, 13TDsBush currently RB 12. Top 5-10 was a little agreesive, but he did well in the playoffs so that's a plus. Call this one a hit. RB LeGarrette Blount: Take Blount in the 6th round. 1150 rushing, 180 receiving, 7 TDsBlount currently RB 86 with 151 rushing yards, 2 receiving yards, and 2 TD. Fail.WR Brandon Marshall: Most folks in the water have Marshall pegged outside the top 10. It’s not the most incredible value pick in the world, but he’ll finish top 5.Home run here. Marshall currently WR2. I personally thought other guys would do more and that the air attack would not be only Marshall.WR Greg Little: Off the board around WR35-40; top 20WR finish.Currently WR 59. Didn't really pan out. Not a huge investment, but still a miss. TE Jacob Tamme: We haven’t seen an easier lock at top 5 TE who is regularly drafted outside the top 10. It’s silly really. Currently TE25. Miss. QB Peyton Manning: Top 5 QBCurrently QB6. Close enough. Hit.RB Kendall Hunter: Top 20 RB [Gore is in twilight mode; Hunter starts to take over midseason and shines]Currently RB56 and a generic back up. Swing and a miss.RB Alex Green: Top 20 RB [He's healthy, and the other options are unimpressive]Currently RB52. Miss.WR Mike Williams (TB): Top 15 WR [Resurgence as VJax takes more attention than he deserves]Currently WR17. Close enough. Hit.WR Leonard Hankerson: Top 20 WR [How's he really going off the board around WR60?]Currently WR62. Maybe people knew he would be around WR60. Miss.Hit on Bush, Marshall, Manning, and Williams. Not even close on the rest. Not great, not horrible.

Good enough for a staff position?

Have you seen MoP's writeups?

 

[Otis]

Look, if you want to cherry pick single individual selections out of context, then you're not getting the point.

The point is that two hits, two not-bad picks, and seven disasters is a terrible result. Way worse than Dodds.

Well who did Dodds say was underrated and overrated before the year. I'd say most fantasy guys agree on most guys and it is the 10-20 guys that you differ on that sets you above the rest. We'll look at Berry for example mainly b/c it was the easiest to find

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=TMR120816

Now, I've already done my "Loves" and "100 Facts" (which is mostly just a sleeper/bust column in disguise), but to be honest, there's a lot of names. So, to try to narrow it down some, here are the 10 guys I feel the strongest about their performance exceeding their draft day value. The reasoning for each choice is covered in depth in Love/Hate and 100 Facts.

1. Aaron Rodgers and Brady as the top two overall picks, the idea of needing to take quarterbacks and elite tight ends early, as outlined in the Draft Day Manifesto. Rodgers is money in the bank, of course, but a crazy monster year coming for Brady, and Jimmy Graham surpasses Rob Gronkowski as the top-scoring tight end.

2. Matt Forte, a legit No. 1 fantasy running back this year.

3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis; nothing sexy, just solid production and double-digit touchdowns.

4. Brandon Marshall. No disrespect to Matt Moore or anything, but ...

5. Brandon Lloyd. Seriously, I can't write any more about him.

6. Peyton Hillis. Brian Daboll is magic.

7. Percy Harvin. Among my favorite stats from Love/Hate: Once Christian Ponder took over in Week 7, Harvin led all wide receivers in offensive touches with 100. Second-most was Wes Welker ... with 74!

8. Antonio Brown. Even his Twitter avatar rules.

9. Torrey Smith. He's getting the deep targets; just needs a few more of them to land near him.

10. Fred Davis. "RG3 rolls right, pressure comes, goes through his progressions and ... finds Davis in the flat! That's another Washington Redskins ... First down!"

Hit: Percy (WR 35 and played 8 games), MarshallMeh: A-Rod (decent but nothing spectacular), Forte, Brown (injured performed up to task), Smith (ADP WR29, Actual WR21)BJGE (ADP RB23 Actual RB 17)

Miss: Lloyd, Hillis, Davis

I guess you could bump up BJGE or Smith to hits but they sort of evened out with Brown who were both underwhelming with respect to ADP. So 2 hits, 5 not bad picks, and 3 busts.

OH SNAP

 

[Sarnoff]

Exactly. And Berry is bringing up names like Rodgers and Forte. No real limb there. Coach Oat is guiding us through the minefield that lays after round 2. Just as good a record with guys much deeper in the draft. Kudos to Otis on this one.

 

[moderated]

Overall a lot of great calls. Deserves to be paid for these gems.

 

[Raider Nation]

Third year in a row that I've followed the Coach Oats blueprint and gone undefeated in my league.

 

[BassNBrew]

QB Jay Cutler: You’ll get him around QB12, but he’ll finish around QB5. 4300 yds, 24 TDs.Currently QB25 with 2319/13 based on total fantasy points. Ranks 23rd based on ppg. This one has to be considered a decent sized miss. RB Reggie Bush: Draft Bush in the 6th round. Watch him finish a top 5-10 RB. 1308 rushing, 322 receiving, 13TDsBush currently RB 12. Top 5-10 was a little agreesive, but he did well in the playoffs so that's a plus. Call this one a hit. RB LeGarrette Blount: Take Blount in the 6th round. 1150 rushing, 180 receiving, 7 TDsBlount currently RB 86 with 151 rushing yards, 2 receiving yards, and 2 TD. Fail.WR Brandon Marshall: Most folks in the water have Marshall pegged outside the top 10. It’s not the most incredible value pick in the world, but he’ll finish top 5.Home run here. Marshall currently WR2. I personally thought other guys would do more and that the air attack would not be only Marshall.WR Greg Little: Off the board around WR35-40; top 20WR finish.Currently WR 59. Didn't really pan out. Not a huge investment, but still a miss. TE Jacob Tamme: We haven’t seen an easier lock at top 5 TE who is regularly drafted outside the top 10. It’s silly really. Currently TE25. Miss. QB Peyton Manning: Top 5 QBCurrently QB6. Close enough. Hit.RB Kendall Hunter: Top 20 RB [Gore is in twilight mode; Hunter starts to take over midseason and shines]Currently RB56 and a generic back up. Swing and a miss.RB Alex Green: Top 20 RB [He's healthy, and the other options are unimpressive]Currently RB52. Miss.WR Mike Williams (TB): Top 15 WR [Resurgence as VJax takes more attention than he deserves]Currently WR17. Close enough. Hit.WR Leonard Hankerson: Top 20 WR [How's he really going off the board around WR60?]Currently WR62. Maybe people knew he would be around WR60. Miss.Hit on Bush, Marshall, Manning, and Williams. Not even close on the rest. Not great, not horrible.

Good enough for a staff position?

Have you seen MoP's writeups?

Figured you were bumping him out of his spot. He might still have you by a bit if they're looking for quantity over quality.Maybe a good compromise would be you taking over random shots.

 

[CalBear]

I guess you could bump up BJGE or Smith to hits but they sort of evened out with Brown/Forte who were both underwhelming with respect to ADP. So 2 hits, 5 not bad picks, and 3 busts.

So in other words, way better than Coach Otis.

 

[sporthenry]

I guess you could bump up BJGE or Smith to hits but they sort of evened out with Brown/Forte who were both underwhelming with respect to ADP. So 2 hits, 5 not bad picks, and 3 busts.

So in other words, way better than Coach Otis.

Well as another poster said, some of his predictions were also much less bold than Otis. Otis certainly didn't seem to have a banner year but apart from Marshall, he didn't really have a no-brainer like Berry did with Forte, A-Rod, Percy, etc. Peyton was a question mark and Otis was right so I won't consider him a no-brainer b/c some avoided him like the plague. But QB wise, Otis pimped ADP 15 while Berry promoted ADP QB1 and QB2. Berry had RB8, RB23, and RB35 while Otis had ADP RB20, RB52, RB55 and RB66. At WR, Berry had ADP WR 12, 17, 18, 26, and 29 while Otis had WR12,WR50, WR53, and WR60. And at TE, Berry had TE9 and Otis had TE11 and both struck out. So while Otis didn't really have a banner year, he went out on a twig compared to the stump of a branch Berry went out on. Otis provided more late round values than Berry did so it is unfair to ask for an apples to apples comparison. You'd have to have both give you an underrated player 1-10, 11-20, etc. Or else next year I can pimp Brady, Brees, A-Rod, AJ Green, Julio, Foster, and Graham and be the best fantasy guy ever. As an aside, earlier in the article, Berry gave his upside RBs of

1. Ryan Williams, Cardinals (15th round): If healthy, could very easily be the guy. As I wrote in Love/Hate: "Tore his patellar tendon last year. Still healthier than Beanie Wells."2. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins (13th): Sorry, Reggie, but one season does not an iron man make. Post-hype sleeper?3. Rashad Jennings, Jaguars (15th round): You realize Maurice Jones-Drew still hasn't reported yet, right?4. Mike Goodson, Raiders (16th round): As of this writing, the guy I feel gets the first shot if something happens to McFadden. Which is not a bad gamble in Round 16.5. Phillip Tanner, Cowboys (not drafted): If something happens to Murray (entirely possible), I'd rather have Tanner than Felix Jones.6. Kendall Hunter, 49ers (not drafted): I think I've made my feelings on Frank Gore this year fairly clear.7. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (16th round): Not like I'm real fond of Michael Turner, either.8. Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers (16th round): Mendenhall is out, Redman is banged up and the Steelers will still run some.9. Bilal Powell, Jets (not drafted): What has Shonn Greene ever proved, exactly? Tim Tebow won't take every red zone carry.10. Evan Royster, Redskins (16th round): At some point this year, he will start. The questions is ... will you have the guts to start him, too? By the way, don't be shocked if Alfred Morris gets a start. It's Mike Shanahan.

This is more in line with what Otis did in provide late round value and I don't see one hit or even ground out in the mix. They all seem to be a swing and a miss save for maybe Thomas.

 

[David Yudkin]

To be fair, a lot of this is harder than it looks, especially when you have to call your shots months before the season starts. Here were some of my picks that were posted in June (but written about in May):

VALUE PLAYS:

QB Big Ben QB15

Currently QB11 in terms of ppg. Call it a push.

QB Carson Palmer QB19

Ranks 17th in ppg. Another push.

RB Shonn Greeene RB24

Currently RB14. Call this one a hit.

RB Isaac Redman RB28

Curretnly RB43. Had 2 good fantasy weeks and then not much else. Miss.

RB Kevin Smith RB50

At the time it looked like he would be the guy. Best was not cleared and LeShoure was suspended and still banged up. Currently RB74 and was invisible this year. FAIL.

WR Demarius Thomas WR21

Currently WR5. Hit.

WR Antonio Brown WR21

Got banged up and didn't really recover. Dipped to WR31 in ppg. I will count it as a miss, but missing a month and being limited is more the cause.

WR Austin Collie WR59

He was looking like a genius pick before all the injuries, but that's his M.O. Goes down as a miss.

WR Nate Washington WR49

Currently WR46. Decent flex play option in larger leagues. Call it a push.

Jerome Simpson WR68

Did very, very little. Ranks WR117 with no TD. Obviously a latter round pick, but this was just bad.

TE Dustin Keller TE17

Another guy that was never healthy even one game this season. Bottom line is he had a couple of decent weeks but the rest of the time was useless. Miss.

TE Tony Gonzalez TE10

Currently TE1 with Gronkowski out. Hit.

OVER VALUED

QB Cam Newton QB4

Currently QB4, but cam on only recently. I'd call it a push, as early on he could have hurt your team.

RB Jahvid Best RB30

Hit, as he never played a down this year.

RB Darren Sproles RB15

Currently RB22. Mild hit.

RB Jonathan Stewart RB27

Banged up and RB49. Didn't do much when he played. Mostly a hit.

WR Dez Bryant WR14

Things turned out differetly than expected. Murray being out changed how things went for the offense. More passing = more Dez (WR3). Miss.

WR Larry Fitzgerald WR2

Curretnly WR39. ARI offense is a mess. Hit.

TE Rob Gronkowski TE1

Missed the last month. Even so, I don't think from a value perspective he was going to be worth the 14th pick overall. Probably a hit in the grand scheme of things.

Some years I hit it out of the park on these types of things. This time, not so much . . .

 

[CalBear]

So while Otis didn't really have a banner year, he went out on a twig compared to the stump of a branch Berry went out on. Otis provided more late round values than Berry did so it is unfair to ask for an apples to apples comparison.

First, you brought up Berry, so you're knocking down your own straw man here. Second, what late round values did Otis hit on? Marshall and Manning are not late round values. Neither are Bush or Mike Williams. Other than that his picks were terrible.

 

[rascal]

Anybody got a link to CalBear's list?

 

[sporthenry]

So while Otis didn't really have a banner year, he went out on a twig compared to the stump of a branch Berry went out on. Otis provided more late round values than Berry did so it is unfair to ask for an apples to apples comparison.

First, you brought up Berry, so you're knocking down your own straw man here. Second, what late round values did Otis hit on? Marshall and Manning are not late round values. Neither are Bush or Mike Williams. Other than that his picks were terrible.

Huh? My own straw man? I was using one of the biggest fantasy guys in the business? Like I said, if you have a Dodds article that shows his under/over rated types, please post it. Yudkin posted it and it was better than Otis but wasn't great. Mike Williams was ADP WR53 and ADP 141, I'd say that is late round. And now you are creating your own straw man. I never said Otis hit on a lot of his late round picks but he at least posted some late round picks. Berry didn't post any and still struck out on some early round picks. My main point is that most people aren't any better at posting late round picks. Not sure why you are so defensive about this. Otis wasn't great but then again, neither were many experts.ETA: For a comparison, most of Otis misses were on these late round type players. So if Berry goes .500 on picks in the top 100 while Otis goes 1-10 on picks over 100, is Berry really better? Is hitting .500 in single-A really better than hitting .250 in the Show?

 

[bushdocda]

I follow two people on twitter: CoachOtis and William Shatner.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Can't wait for the 2013 edition

 

[BobbyLayne]

Are you not entertained?

 

[BobbyLayne]

I'm outraged the 2011 thread has been archived.



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