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2014 Subscriber Contest is LIVE (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
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solorca
Footballguy
I'm still surviving, but my RB situation just keeps getting worse. This week I used MJD and James Starks with Jennings, Ingram, and Stewart injured and Vereen useless. This did take care of two more people who I hadn't previously used. Now, only Marqise Lee remains as an unused member of my team.
cheese
Footballguy
87 teams with that combo were left entering week 6 (26%). I'm sure we lost a bunch more this week.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Looks like FBG has it at 29. NFL.com still has him with 10 catches though. I won't get around to updating my site until later this morning, so I'll look into it then.
Rick James
Footballguy
Had a close call this week. Was actually under the cut line until Benny Cunningham scored that TD last night. Barely made it. RBs were a dumpster fire this week-- Bush, Vereen, Donald Brown, and Khiry Robinson...oof...actually used MJD's 5 points.
I had week 6 pencilled in as my most likely exit week, because I have Drew Brees and JImmy Graham. I made it through, but obviously the Graham injury hurts. Hopefully Tim Wright can catch a few TDs or something
ajm27501
Footballguy
Snuck through again this week, somehow still alive despite only breaking 150 three times this year. But I have no depth at WR after losing Cruz, and my RBs are even worse with Jennings hurt, and Spiller being terrible. I will predict that I get knocked out next week, and will continue to predict my demise until it ultimately happens. Regardless, there is virtually no chance that this team will contend even if does survive to the end. Unless teams without big score capability or consistency are rewarded.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
squeeked by 7 points, my rbs are terrible
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
As a side note, I spent very little time on my entry this year. Most of August was spent furiously learning how to create a website to do the live scoring and whatnot. By far this was the least attention I've ever paid to creating my entry for this contest, I literally did one pass the last week of August or so, submitted and let it ride.
This week I surpassed 200 points for the second week in a row and third time overall this season. Through this point in the season this is probably the strongest entry I've ever had in all the years I've been playing. Go figure.
Of course, having said that I'll probably be knocked out this week, but it's been a fun ride so far.
This week I surpassed 200 points for the second week in a row and third time overall this season. Through this point in the season this is probably the strongest entry I've ever had in all the years I've been playing. Go figure.
Of course, having said that I'll probably be knocked out this week, but it's been a fun ride so far.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Damn, missed the cut by 4 points. After making it through the first 5 pretty comfortably, it sucks to be so close to moving on. All my WRs and RBs #### the bed the same week. Dez, Julio, Wayne, Morris and Lacy are were pretty underwhelming this week. Sucks they all did it the same week.
jdkapow
Footballguy
Is that the only discrepancy you see between your results and FBG's? Because my numbers are matching yours.
What I think I've learned so far regarding this contest:
There is no reason to spend more than $6 total on kickers or defenses. Kickers rarely get injured or lose their job or get suspended. As for defenses, pick average teams in weak conferences.
High end TEs are worth it. Pairing two (or more) of Graham/JT/Gronk means you're filling one flex position with a high end TE almost every week. An additional benefit of this is that you only have one remaining flex position to fill with a rb or wr which allows you pick studs
The value was with WRs this year. Lots of good options across the pricing spectrum, but especially the cheap guys like steve smith, quick, KB, Sanu (who has massive injury luck thus far), etc
You lost EV if you spent more than ~$25 on qbs. A 2qb combo of cutler/anyone or basically any two qbs in the 9-16 range
Rb luck is real. Several of the top rbs so far have been huge disappointments and the smart value plays got hurt. Maybe i'm only saying that because I have 12 points combined from my rbs over the past 4 weeks lol
There is no reason to spend more than $6 total on kickers or defenses. Kickers rarely get injured or lose their job or get suspended. As for defenses, pick average teams in weak conferences.
High end TEs are worth it. Pairing two (or more) of Graham/JT/Gronk means you're filling one flex position with a high end TE almost every week. An additional benefit of this is that you only have one remaining flex position to fill with a rb or wr which allows you pick studs
The value was with WRs this year. Lots of good options across the pricing spectrum, but especially the cheap guys like steve smith, quick, KB, Sanu (who has massive injury luck thus far), etc
You lost EV if you spent more than ~$25 on qbs. A 2qb combo of cutler/anyone or basically any two qbs in the 9-16 range
Rb luck is real. Several of the top rbs so far have been huge disappointments and the smart value plays got hurt. Maybe i'm only saying that because I have 12 points combined from my rbs over the past 4 weeks lol
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Not sure, I haven't run the comparison yet, been busy with real work this morning. I just happened to notice Sanu because QG mentioned it, and I have him on my entry. I'll let you know shortly.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Just checked and Sanu was the only difference. I have him at 10 catches (28 points) and FBG has him at 11 catches (29 points). I'm not sure which is correct, nor have I looked to see which teams (if any) this would impact in terms of making/missing the cut. I'll email Doug and see what he thinks.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
In the last three weeks I've got 50 points combined from my RBs and I'm still alive. Cleared it by a Zeurlein XP.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
My take on it is that 3 QBs are a must, even if they are cheaper options. Lots of people are surviving with bad RB numbers. No one is bragging about advancing w/ a terrible QB number. There's a reason for that, IMO. You can't advance without at least a decent QB score. I'm also a firm believer in 3 defenses and 3 PK. No reason to roster an expensive unit/player at these spots, but you need 3. A 12-16 point PK performance can't be predicted, but you have to get those with a degree of regularity IMO.
Finally, I'm a believer in the handcuff approach on RBs. I have Bush and Bell, for example. No, that's not going to result in very many monster outings at those 2 spots, but I'm reasonably assured of a solid floor at at least 1 RB spot and injuries are less of a concern.
I don't have a real good philosophy on WRs, which is probably why that is my weakest position.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
QB - I don't agree, but that's because I picked well so far with Rivers/Newton. You need to avoid injuries, but two solid QBs should get the job done.
PK - agreed, 3 seems to work best
D - think I agree, but I'm less certain on this
RB - I had Bush/Bell plugged in for the longest time and it would have been the safer play. If I had taken someone other than Lynch instead I'd be kicking myself.
WR - other than a guy I think has elite talent (the Gordon exception), I'm only taking WRs whose QB I trust. The QB doesn't have to be Peyton, but he can't be Locker or McCown types.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
2007:
Qb_ct Count Alive Surv Rate1 252 3 1.20%2 4090 88 2.20%3 5821 144 2.50%4 1277 15 1.20%5+ 352 0 0.00%2008:
Qb_ct Count Alive Surv Rate1 367 2 0.50%2 4781 64 1.30%3 6361 171 2.70%4 876 13 1.50%5+ 238 0 0.00%2009:
Qb_ct Count Alive Surv Rate1 567 2 0.40%2 7182 135 1.90%3 4843 107 2.20%4 563 6 1.10%5+ 95 0 0.00%2010:
Qb_ct Count Alive Surv Rate1 367 1 0.30%2 7354 148 2.00%3 4469 89 2.00%4 675 12 1.80%5+ 173 0 0.00%2011:
Qb_ct Count Alive Surv Rate1 223 4 1.80%2 6517 167 2.60%3 3440 70 2.00%4 464 9 1.90%5+ 109 0 0.00%2012:
Qb_ct Count Alive Surv Rate1 270 1 0.40%2 7459 131 1.80%3 4451 106 2.40%4 837 11 1.30%5+ 276 2 0.72%2013:
Qb_ct Count Alive Surv Rate1 282 3 1.10%2 7060 134 1.90%3 5695 99 1.70%4 1054 15 1.40%5+ 302 0 0.00%Source: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/querier/
So it's been a mixed bag. 2010 is the first year that the rules changed to allow 18-30 players on your roster, so that's a little more relevant.
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mphtrilogy
Footballguy
hanging on thanks to my Bennie Cunningham selection, hes anchoring my RB core right now!
My Sanu pick is carrying this team.
My Sanu pick is carrying this team.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
2010-2013 combined results for survival rate by number of kickers:
Same for defenses:
Code:
Pk_ct Count Alive Surv Rate2 32927 598 1.8%3 11074 312 2.8%4 1755 50 2.8%
Code:
Dst_ct Count Alive Surv Rate2 33139 634 1.9%3 11050 286 2.6%4 1680 45 2.7%Rick James
Footballguy
Curious what you guys' DST scores are on a weekly basis. Only use the defense that "counted" for you. Mine are pretty high:
Week 1: 13 points (HOU)
Week 2: 14 points (BUF)
Week 3: 15 points (TB)
Week 4: 12 points (HOU)
Week 5: 12 points (TB)
Week 6: 13 points (HOU)
I would have been eliminated weeks 2, 3, and 6 if it weren't for my DST. Of course you could say that for any position really
Week 1: 13 points (HOU)
Week 2: 14 points (BUF)
Week 3: 15 points (TB)
Week 4: 12 points (HOU)
Week 5: 12 points (TB)
Week 6: 13 points (HOU)
I would have been eliminated weeks 2, 3, and 6 if it weren't for my DST. Of course you could say that for any position really
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Carolina Panthers $4 9.00 10.00 1.00 0.00 18.00 5.00 New York Jets $3 2.00 6.00 6.00 4.00 5.00 2.00 my D has been a Non-Factor, my WR choices have kept me alive:
Code:
Dez Bryant $27 9.50 26.30 20.90 13.40 23.50 10.30 Antonio Brown $22 22.60 17.00 31.00 32.95 13.40 18.60 Julian Edelman $17 17.60 21.00 18.90 6.30 8.50 19.10 Kelvin Benjamin $5 21.20 6.60 25.50 18.60 6.80 17.90 Mohamed Sanu $3 8.00 19.90 14.30 0.00 18.00 29.00cheese
Footballguy
Yes, that has been a good combo. You also haven't hit the bye weeks for your DST though which is a factor here. Also, we're also losing out to anyone who has Philly.
cheese
Footballguy
1214 including you and I have the Benjamin/Sanu combo. 71% survival
FWIW, I happen to have Dez/Benjamin/Sanu which cuts it all the way down to 297 teams.
Hybrid
Footballguy
Still hanging in there. My roster has 12 total players at the flex positions and 5 of them are injured (including Graham and Megatron). Only two healthy RBs. I feel like my time is coming soon, but if I can last until my guys come back from injury (only have Woodhead out for the year), my team is really strong on paper (though I'm sure many can say the same).
) and Graham out but moving on. - lsutigers2Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Exactly. FWIW, I always pick precisely the right players every year. The failing is on the players' part, not mine.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
2013 through 6 weeks- 1000.5 points
2014 through 6 weeks- 1000.2 points
knocked out after week 11 last year, still in this year
2014 through 6 weeks- 1000.2 points
knocked out after week 11 last year, still in this year
FUBAR
Footballguy
Week 1: 8 points (MIA)
Week 2: 6 points (NYJ)
Week 3: 12 points (DET)
Week 4: 16 points (MIA)
Week 5: 10 points (DET)
Week 6: 14 points (DET)
Pretty close to yours after the first two weeks. But I like Detroit going forward a lot.
Fantasy Man
Footballguy
Interesting. I've always done pretty well in this contest, and I'm firmly a 4 K and 4 TD guy. I've always been a 2 QB guy too and usually got booted when they both sucked. I went with 4 QBs/Ks/TDs this year and while I haven't posted any huge numbers, I've been comfortably over the cut line every week. I've also avoided the injury/suspension bug almost completely. I can't remember liking my team this much at this juncture in a long time.
Of course, that means I'll be booted this week.
sweaty_swami
Footballguy
I'm in agreement with you about 3 Ds and PKs.Tennessee_ATO said:
2 QBs vs 3 QBs is a tough one. If you're going with fairly low cost/high injury risk/high inconsistency guys, I think 3 is the way to go. I went the other route, taking 2 that I thought would be fairly "stable": Brees+Rivers. So far so good.
Despite all the injuries at RB this year, I hate the handcuff RB approach. For the price of a decent RB + handcuff, I could get a stud RB without a clear backup instead. Generally on a given week, you're going to get points out of either your RB or your handcuff, but not both. Example: Gore+Hyde and Lynch cost about the same. Most weeks, if you picked the combo, you'd be getting points from Gore; if you picked the stud, you're getting points from Lynch. If I'm choosing Gore vs Lynch in a given week, give me Lynch. Granted, this is a cherry-picked example and of course if that stud goes down you're screwed, but I think if you're shooting for the top 250 (or higher), you have to just count on your studs to get you there rather than trying to limp through each week with RB2/3s and their backups.
WRs are definitely a good place to get budget options. It's nice to have 1 or 2 reliable guys, but it's easy to load up on low cost high upside guys. I have 7 WRs, 5 of them cost me $21 total: Latimer, Benjamin, Malcolm Floyd, Sanu, John Brown. 2-4 of those guys have been big every week. Even hitting on 2 makes them well worth the money I spent on the group.
More important than any of this though is utilizing early bye weeks. Front-load early bye weeks a bit when it's easier to advance. Sure you might end up with an early exit, but I think it improves your odds of making it to that 250 cut overall.
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Lehigh98
Footballguy
I did this at the last minute without and alot of thought and went with Kaep, Ben and a bunch of cheap QB's on my 30 man roster.Tennessee_ATO said:
Only time they came into play was last week when I got an 8 pt bump, looks like a waste of $23.
Colin Kaepernick $14 19.15 20.00 21.65 23.70 15.85 32.85
Ben Roethlisberger $10 22.05 9.85 17.90 27.50 17.45 15.10
Johnny Manziel $8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brian Hoyer $6 15.30 14.20 18.90 0.00 25.80 14.85
Teddy Bridgewater $6 0.00 0.00 10.20 24.55 0.00 7.50
Blake Bortles $3 0.00 0.00 20.15 17.05 8.95 23.60
I'd go at least 3 though so you have another option when one's on a bye and the other is hurt or ineffective, just takes one bad week to get knocked out.
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sweaty_swami
Footballguy
Just to use your team as an example: if you had stuck with your top 2 QBs only, there's only one week so far where having 1 of your QBs on a hypothetical bye and relying on the other's score would have really put you in serious trouble (week 2 - Roflburger 9.85 points). And of course, if you had gone with only 2 QBs, you would have had more $$$ left over for better QBs.
If you go 2 QBs, there are exactly 2 weeks where you have to count on one of them to not be hurt/ineffective with the other on bye. It's certainly a risk, but IMO less of a risk than people make it out to be.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I'm a 2 QB guy myself, but I think 3 QBs is also a strong strategy. Any more than that is a waste IMO. The top QBs don't really get hurt or have down weeks all that often; with 2 or 3 of them you're almost assured of a solid score at QB every week, rather than playing the lottery with a bunch of lesser QBs.
Just as an example, for $23 you could have had any QB outside the top 3 to go with Kaep and Big Ben. Heck, throw Roethlisberger back in the pool and then you have $33 to spend, which you could use on 2 $15-20 guys (e.g. Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, Nick Foles and Tony Romo, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton) or even one higher-priced and one lower (e.g. Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco). Take any one of those pairs and add Kaepernick, and that's a pretty can't-miss trio for the same amount of money that you spent on 6 QBs.
Even though he's literally the only unused player on my roster, I don't think the $3 on Bortles was misspent.
He'll provide a safety net for Cutler and Newton should the unthinkable happen.
But I can certainly see how the other bargain basement QBs have been a let down.
He'll provide a safety net for Cutler and Newton should the unthinkable happen.
But I can certainly see how the other bargain basement QBs have been a let down.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Look at the schedule. Bortles will have poor defenses the last 5 weeks of the season. More experience and health among his weapons, he could shine down the stretch.
Went two QBs as well. I've tried to outsmart myself in the past and sometimes went with 1 elite QB and a lesser-tier QB or 1 elite QB and a lesser-tier QB whose backup is in the contest and cheap too. Not good when the elite QB gets hurt. This year I went down to two QBs and tried to just find value with both. Maybe I lucked out so far, but $12 each on Cutler and Rivers seems like, arguably, the best value that I could have gotten, and it's a strategy I would probably employ again.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
My records only go back to 2007, but in that time, no. Here are the QBs owned by the winning team for each year:
2013: Brees ($26), Vick ($9)
2012: Ryan ($19), Luck ($11)
2011: Rivers ($24), Stafford ($18)
2010: Rodgers ($29), Roethlisberger ($14)
2009: Rodgers ($27), Romo ($23)
2008: Romo ($23), Brees ($23)
2007: Brees ($21)
Omniscient Deity
Footballguy
Only 118 this week I made a risky bye rolling with Kelce/Graham as TE's so Heath was my play this week. Keenan Allen killed me. So did Big Ben as Brees was on a bye. :(
Good luck to the rest of the regular shark pool posters here!
Good luck to the rest of the regular shark pool posters here!
sweaty_swami
Footballguy
I don't hate spending $3 on Bortles. It's only $3 after all.
Spending $20+ on a handful of sleeper QBs when at most one of them can contribute for you in a given week is a different story.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
My WR have kept me alive as well. DT/Dez/Julio/Benjamin/Sanu. I think I am the only team with that group. But my RBs are a hot mess and my TE situation is not good this week if Graham is out.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I went with Rivers/Cutler as well. I agree it seemed like the best value and so far so good. Cam was the other option but that extra dollar and his broken rib kept him out.
Running the query on IE's site, 824 entries had both Cutler and Rivers. Of those, 417 are still alive (50.6%). Would be a fun stat to know, of those 824, how many had just Cutler and Rivers and how many of those 2 QB entries are still alive.
Also interesting:
FBG $35,000 Subscriber Contest Query Results
For years from 2007 to 2013, find all teams that spent $0-$250 on 18-30 players, $0-$30 on 2-2 QBs, $0-$250 on 1-30 RBs, $0-$250 on 1-30 WRs, $0-$250 on 1-30 TEs, $0-$250 on 1-30 PKs, and $0-$250 on 1-30 DSTs.
Year Entries Survived to Finals Survival Rate Overall Survival Rate
2007 2070 32 1.5% 2.1%
2008 2794 48 1.7% 2.0%
2009 784 1 0.1% 1.9%
2010 1089 9 0.8% 1.9%
2011 504 4 0.8% 2.3%
2012 1616 31 1.9% 1.9%
2013 3187 60 1.9% 1.7%
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TwinTurbo
Footballguy
It would have been misspent if you didn't also pay $3 for Sanu, Eddie Royal, etc. It looks like 29 teams started with Cam/Cutler/Bortles and only 9 are still alive. Only 3 of the 29 teams also picked Sanu and 2 are still alive.
I think to win this contest, you can't afford to pay for insurance, especially at the QB position. You just have to get lucky with no injuries. That said, my $3 kicker Freese is out, so I would gladly take Bortles if I could.
sweaty_swami
Footballguy
I'll be interested to see how many of those entries are alive after week 10 when Rivers is on bye and Cutler is @GB
