2016 Survivor Pool Discussion (2 Viewers)

[Todem]

There are teams that you should almost never use.  A bad team playing a division game against a perennial playoff team is just begging to get your ### booted out of the pool.  Especially in Week 2 when it looks like there are several other juicy mediocre teams worth taking a shot on (Detroit, Baltimore, Giants, Oakland)

Ok....I have won these things before (and you do need some luck too as always) and I think you are over estimating Seattle right now. That OL was hellacious bad, and if they are missing their Starting QB (which was the only way I take the Rams) they are going down vs a ferocious defense that is strong on the line, LB and secondary positions. The Dolphins blew the game the moment they rushed 4 and dropped 7. Morons vs a one legged QB.

The Rams will attack at will this upcoming weekend. At either a very gimpy Russell or a green QB. It screams upset to me. In fact depending on the injury report on Russell I may go with them anyway. But like I said, it is one of 3 games I am considering.

 

[Todem]

Aren't the Panthers playing at home against San Fran this week?  It's a stone cold lock if so.

Yep. That is my strongest game and will likely be my pick.

 

[CentralPA]

Yep. That is my strongest game and will likely be my pick.

Yep, short week for a not very talented San Fran team, cross country trip, pissed off and rested Carolina team.  :IBTL: :IBTL:

 

[Futz]

20% of the entries already dismissed week 1. Some real head scratchers too. Carolina v Denver? Why even sniff that game. Yikes.

Escaped with Seattle and Houston but barely.

 

[swampdog]

First rule of Survivor Pool is no division games.

Disagree, First rule of Survivor Pool is no Road winners.  Then no Division games, then never bet for, or against the Chargers.....

 

[Lascelle]

I almost always choose to fade the consensus favourite after Week 1 because that's where the trap games that wipe out 50% of the Survivor field turn up... but I'm not so sure this week.

The alternatives seem to be the Lions or the Raiders after narrow shootout road victories against bad teams and I don't have much faith in either team's defense or confidence they won't wind up with a let-down game now that they're 1-0.

Rolling with the Panthers and letting the more adventurous fall to a Titan-Falcon upset win seems to be the play.

 

[Interseptopus]

week 2

I think the obvious choice is Carolina over San Fran at home. The downside is Carolina has a great schedule and may be a team we want to save for later in the season.

The other choice is Baltimore on the road vs Cleveland. This seems like a great pick on paper but with RGIII out is McCown enough to compete with the Ravens? Or are the Browns really that bad? Just uneasy picking a road team in what kind of looks like a trap game. Baltimore has no real future value so this may be the week to use them.

I wouldn't consider any other team this week than these two.

Thoughts?

 

[tangfoot]

Leaning heavily toward Arizona over Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay playing a 2nd road game in a row against a pissed off Super Bowl contender.  No way they start 0-2 at home.

 

[bro1ncos]

week 2

I think the obvious choice is Carolina over San Fran at home. The downside is Carolina has a great schedule and may be a team we want to save for later in the season.

The other choice is Baltimore on the road vs Cleveland. This seems like a great pick on paper but with RGIII out is McCown enough to compete with the Ravens? Or are the Browns really that bad? Just uneasy picking a road team in what kind of looks like a trap game. Baltimore has no real future value so this may be the week to use them.

I wouldn't consider any other team this week than these two.

Thoughts?

Really? You like a road team playing a division game better than something like Oakland at home vs the Falcons?

 

[Interseptopus]

Leaning heavily toward Arizona over Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay playing a 2nd road game in a row against a pissed off Super Bowl contender.  No way they start 0-2 at home.

I like Arizonas rest of schedule. Specifically for week 10. You're right, they should win but I feel like their value further down the road is more valuable. Week 10 doesn't have a lot of locks, unless you like Baltimore at home vs Cleveland. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Really? You like a road team playing a division game better than something like Oakland at home vs the Falcons?

When it's the Browns, yes I do. I am pretty sure I am picking Carolina regardless but Oakland at home vs Atlanta... only 4.5 point favorite. I don't think Atlanta is that bad. the Raiders barely made it past New Orleans, who I think is worse than the Falcons. Just my opinion, but I wouldn't touch that game.

I have Oakland potentially slotted for week 5 in a divisional game at home against SD, who I do think is that bad. I figure by week 5 I'll have a better idea of how good or bad each team is.

Right now I'm not sure how anyone can have a confident opinion in Oakland being really good or Atlanta being really bad after 1 week where each team played close games against formidable opponents. If Atlanta lost to the Rams then yea fine I get it, but they lost on the road to a playoff caliber divisional opponent, barely. IMO the first few weeks my strategy is pick more locks until the season really unfolds and we see if each team is who we thought they were

 

[Timmay]

My first thought was to go with Detroit vs Tennessee, but year after year they seem to play great one game and fall flat the next, when you expect them to play well. I think this year might be different (fingers crossed.) Obvious chalk play is Carolina. Followed by Cardinals and Ravens. The Raiders and Broncos are other intriguing plays, but I dont know if I can trust the Raiders quite yet and Colts can play with anyone, even though their defense is terrible. 

 

[massraider]

When it's the Browns, yes I do. I am pretty sure I am picking Carolina regardless but Oakland at home vs Atlanta... only 4.5 point favorite. I don't think Atlanta is that bad. the Raiders barely made it past New Orleans, who I think is worse than the Falcons. Just my opinion, but I wouldn't touch that game.

I have Oakland potentially slotted for week 5 in a divisional game at home against SD, who I do think is that bad. I figure by week 5 I'll have a better idea of how good or bad each team is.

Right now I'm not sure how anyone can have a confident opinion in Oakland being really good or Atlanta being really bad after 1 week where each team played close games against formidable opponents. If Atlanta lost to the Rams then yea fine I get it, but they lost on the road to a playoff caliber divisional opponent, barely. IMO the first few weeks my strategy is pick more locks until the season really unfolds and we see if each team is who we thought they were

Brees hangs 30 on everyone at home.  Brees scoring 30 points on someone at home doesn't make us wonder about that defense, it just reminds us that Brees is at home.  

Chioces to me this week:

CAR vs. SF.  SF has a short week, CAR has extra rest, and coming off a brutal loss to the last team they lost to.  I am sure this will be the most used team this week, and I have a tough time imagining SF winning.  I'll use them for a pick or teo, but they have some late season games that look really nice.  

BAL at CLE.  I'm with Dr. Brew here.  It's a road game, but I think CLE is historically bad.  Terell Pryor is starting at WR right now.  Can anyone name one of their LBs?  BAL does get CLE and PHI at home later in the year, and I think BAL rebounds this year, and we will be thinking higher of them in a few weeks.  IMHO.  

OAK vs ATL.  I'm going to follow injuries here.  Raiders came back on the road in NO, with only two O-linemen in the same place as the first snap of the game.  If they have Watson or Howard at RT this wek, that's very good.  Julio Jones has been banged up this week, he's probably less than 100%.  I like the Falcons traveling cross country, I like the matchup for OAK as well.  Falcons don't have a Willie Snead/Jarvis Landry type.  I don't think they can run on OAK< and I think OAK can mash their D-line all day long.  

Also, OAK the rest of the way doesn't have any home runs at home rest of the year.  SD, BUF, IND, I am pretty sure I like this game the best.  

Here's a wild one:

DEN vs IND.  Not going to be widely taken.  DEN has extra rest. Defense clearly looks strong still.  Colts might have enjoyed a dome shootout with DET, but on the road in DEN is different.  I think DEN shortens the game, runs it down their throat, and beats the holy heck out of Luck.  And check out DEN's schedule the rest of the way.  Not a lot of homeruns.  

Anyone taking the Rams this week, I salute you.  Bigger stones than me. 

 

[Interseptopus]

alright alright, I'm intrigued. This is why I like the FBG message board. Gets you thinking. Now I'm considering Oakland. I don't like considering it but I need to take a look at this game. They don't really have a decent game to pick them for the rest of the year, so it's use them now or never.

at least I get one strike, just hate using it week 2

 

[Futz]

Surprised that the Denver vs Indy game isn't getting more love. This is a terrible matchup for Indy. I will have a hard time trusting Denver this year and this seems like a walkover.

 

[CentralPA]

Surprised that the Denver vs Indy game isn't getting more love. This is a terrible matchup for Indy. I will have a hard time trusting Denver this year and this seems like a walkover.

You've got me thinking about taking them instead of Panthers.

 

[ffrookie]

Denver has traditionally struggled with Indy so I'd stay away. I forget the exact stat but I believe they are somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-11 against them in their last 14 games. This may sounds crazy since they are an underdog but I briefly considered Miami as I think they match up well with New England. I also don't trust the raiders at all. Saints are not a good team and raiders barely got by them. 

Im probably going Carolina or Detroit out of the mess this week.  

 

[massraider]

It's pretty darn scary taking Trevor Siemian vs Andrew Luck. And week 2.  

 

[massraider]

Here I will look at some Week 2 favorites to get an early idea of who we might be using for our NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 2. Sign up for our newsletter on the left side of this blog to get our official picks from three former pool winners via e-mail on Thursdays, or the same information will be posted on Saturdays on the homepage of our blog.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 2: Look at Opening Lines

I will start off with the biggest favorites here and go down the list.

Carolina (-13) vs. San Francisco

I’ll just say it right now, this is probably one of the strongest picks for the entire season for NFL Survivor Pools. There is a very good chance I will use Carolina on all four of my cards, although I may diversify on at least one card. Carolina has extra rest here after playing on the Thursday night season opener. They lost that game to the Broncos, so they have less of a chance for a letdown against the inferior Niners. A loss here would be catastrophic. San Francisco has a short week after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 1. They looked pretty good in a shutout of the Los Angeles Rams, but I think that was more a case of the Rams just playing a really bad game. This would be a monumental upset if the Niners were to win this game. This will be the most popular pick on the Week 2 Survivor Pool board by a mile, but at this point of the season I am just worried about advancing in my pool. No need to try and get cute when there is a pick as strong as this on the board.

Baltimore (-7) at Cleveland

The Browns looked even worse than advertised in their Week 1 loss to the Eagles. This team stinks, and Baltimore will also be a trendy Week 2 Survivor Pool picks since fading the Browns will be a popular strategy this season. But I will stay away from this one. Division game. Road game. Cleveland actually beat Baltimore last season, and both games were close. I will pass on this one even though this is probably a pretty solid pick.

New England (-6.5) vs. Miami

I don’t like this game, either. The Patriots looked like they didn’t need Tom Brady in their Week 1 upset at Arizona. Now all their games are at home until Brady returns. I just have the feeling they will lose at least once, if not twice, before Brady gets back. Miami pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season last year, beating New England in Week 17 as a double-digit underdog. They also looked decent in their Week 1 loss at Seattle.

Arizona (-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay

I actually like this game a lot as well. The Cardinals lost to a very good team on Sunday night. They will be primed to bounce back here. This is an out-of-conference opponent and a mismatch. The Bucs looked very good in Week 1 in a road win at Atlanta, 31-24. They face a much tougher defense here, however, and should struggle on the offensive end. I just don’t see Arizona dropping to 0-2.

 Detroit (-6) vs. Tennessee

Tennessee played decently in a Week 1 loss to Minnesota, and I think this team may surprise some people this season. Detroit looked good in a Week 1 upset of Indianapolis. But I think that was more of a sign that Indy is a lousy team than that Detroit is really good. The Lions will be the type of team you will have to use later in the season when better options are unavailable. But it’s too early to use a team like this that has been so inconsistent in the past.

Denver -6 vs. Indianapolis

I bet on Denver here minus the points and think they will win. That was more a bet against Indy, who turned in one of the worst Week 1 performances, than a vote of confidence for Denver. The Broncos will probably be in a lot of close games this season as they will be great on defense and will struggle on offense. They should put up enough points to win and cover here, but I like this as a straight spread bet rather than a Survivor Pool pick. Denver does get extra rest here, so they do have that going for them.

New York Giants (-4.5) vs. New Orleans

This game has the highest betting total on the board at 53 points (the bookies set a bettable number for the combined score for both teams in the game, and bettors can take “over” or “under”). This one is probably going to be a shootout. Neither team looked great in Week 1, and I think there will be a lot of scoring in this game but that is about the only thing I can predict about it. Pass.

Oakland -4.5 vs. Atlanta

I like a lot of what I saw from the Raiders last week, and Jack Del Rio has balls of steel for going for the two-point conversion to win the game. Atlanta looked bad in a home loss to the Bucs. I just get the feeling both of these teams are inconsistent clubs this year that will look great one week and lousy the next. I will stay away from this one, but for those that want to live dangerously I couldn’t really argue with you if you wanted to take Oakland here.

Seattle (Line off the Board) at Los Angeles Rams

Many Survivor Pool contestants used the Seahawks in Week 1 and no longer have them as an option. This line is off the board because QB Russell Wilson is banged up for the Hawks, even though he is currently listed as probable to play. But the Rams looked like the worst team in the NFL by far in Week 1, and this may be one of the best teams to fade this season. There are probably better chances to take the Seahawks down the line, but I’m pretty sure this will be an easy win for the visitors.

 

[Interseptopus]

I can't help but he intrigued on the Oakland game but kind of a risky pick still... trying to convince myself it's the way to go

 

[massraider]

I can't help but he intrigued on the Oakland game but kind of a risky pick still... trying to convince myself it's the way to go

I like other games better, IMO the only reason you take Oakland is to save CAR.  

I have 4 picks in my big pool.  Taking CAR with two of them, OAK with one, and wavering with DEN in the other.

 

[massraider]

I'm off BAL, because McKown, and divisional, and road.

So I'm gonna pass, and hope they lose. Because if they do, I am UNLOADING on them at home vs. CLE later in the year.  

 

[Interseptopus]

Glad I went safe and took Carolina instead of Oakland. Onto week 3!

Top week 3 spreads:

San Francisco at Seattle
This is a divisional game. I am staying away. San Francisco kept it competitive with Carolina and Seattle hasn't looked good the first 2 weeks. Also seattle has some solid future value so I'm saving them for a better game later

Cleveland at Miami
This is likely my pick. Miami is one of the best 0-2 teams out there. They barely lost week 1 and kept the game close vs New England. Home vs a bad Cleveland team on their third QB and no games worth taking the rest of the year for Miami. Those things have me very interested.

Detroit at Green Bay 
Another divisional game. Green Bays home opener coming off a stinker in MIN. Detroit is coming off a tough loss and now has to go to GB. I'll save GB for a better game but this could be a reasonable pick

Chicago at Dallas
There aren't many games to take Dallas, and this is probably the best on their schedule. I'm highly considering this one over Miami. Chicago is one of the worst teams this season.

San Diego at Indianapolis 
Another very good 0-2 team. Indy coming home after a rough loss to face a SD team coming off a good performance vs Jacksonville. I think Indy rebounds and SD comes back to earth. I'd like to save Indy but I'm not exactly who I'd save them for. This is about as equal as the Dallas game for me... another team that should win and doesn't have anything that jumps out at me the rest of the year. 

Arizona at Buffalo
I don't really understand why this is the 2nd most popular pick for Yahoo... I feel AZ has much better value later in the season and Buffalo at home... I just don't like it as much as Miami or even GB. 

These are the games that stand out the most to me.

Any thoughts on this week's picks? Or did everyone get burned already? 

 

[ffrookie]

Im going with Miami. Just too good to pass up and I dont see any easy games after this game the rest of the way for the Dolphins. I do think Seattle gets back on track but they have looked bad the first two weeks. They match up better with SF though as the 49ers dont really have a pass rush.

 

[Lascelle]

Dolphins vs. Kessler clearly seems to be the chalk play this week.  Cowboys vs. Hoyer seems to be the fall back option.

I'm leaning towards the chalk play again this week.  Not getting trap game vibes around Cleveland vs. Miami at all... especially for the Fins home opener.  Looking ahead to Week 4, however... seems like it could get awful messy.

 

[massraider]

Glad I went safe and took Carolina instead of Oakland. Onto week 3!

Lost half my picks (2 of 4) taking my favorite team.  Not good.  

Miami all day.  No Gordon, no Coleman, Kessler at QB, MIA at home, has a good rush D, and a team I won't want to use anywhere else. 

I dislike the DET/GB game for all the normal 'rules of Survivor picks' rules, but also DET looks better than advertised, and GB looks worse.  

Dallas is a solid pick, no problem there, but I am still a little gun shy.  Also, DAL is at CLE later in the year, on a tough week 9 slate, I'd like to hang onto them till then.  I would like to go the year without using DAL, honestly.

I'm not going anywhere near SD/IND.  SD has been better than I thought, adn I think this IND team can lose to anyone with that defense, and no Moncrief this week.  

Seattle has started slow recthe last two years, it's a solid pick, but for some reason, I think I'll like them vs. ATL later in the year, or Rams in week 15.  

You didn't mention TB at home vs. Rams, which would probably be my second pick.  TB started season on the road two games, and gets a Rams team that cannot score travelling cross country.  

 

[Hawkeye21]

I originally picked the Steelers but the more I thought about it I figured this would be the only time I would really pick the Dolphins this year.  I'll save the Steelers for another week.

 

[Timmay]

Dolphins seems like the pick this week. A part of me wants to fade them and see the survivor pool dwindle down to a handful of people when Browns and Kessler pull off the upset. Anything is possible right? 

 

[Nero]

Indy and Miami are terrible 0-2 teams IMO. No way I'd take either. I expect San Diego to beat Indy. If Kessler is competent, Cleveland will compete with Miami.

Ironically, I like another 0-2 team.  New Orleans, put em the board!

 

[Timmay]

Indy and Miami are terrible 0-2 teams IMO. No way I'd take either. I expect San Diego to beat Indy. If Kessler is competent, Cleveland will compete with Miami.

Ironically, I like another 0-2 team.  New Orleans, put em the board!

Vegas seems to like the Dolphins. Currently 10 points favorites. Next is Dallas vs Chicago. (of course that is why they play the games though, but just saying)

 

[TeeDub]

I have Miami picked but to be honest I don't know if I'm sticking with it. I remember last year (around this time) when Miami was a sure bet to win and they lost. Might change my pick to Dallas. 

 

[Interseptopus]

I have Miami picked but to be honest I don't know if I'm sticking with it. I remember last year (around this time) when Miami was a sure bet to win and they lost. Might change my pick to Dallas. 

I got burned in my double elimination pool by Miami in a game they were shoe ins, so I agree I'm a little gunshy

 

[Nero]

Vegas seems to like the Dolphins. Currently 10 points favorites. Next is Dallas vs Chicago. (of course that is why they play the games though, but just saying)

It's a trap, kind of like New England last night. On a neutral field, I'd take Cleveland over Miami with McCown or Griffin at QB. I'm not willing to count on Kessler being terrible to trust Miami. I'd take the 10 points before I would lay the 10, but I'd pass because of the unknown.

I like Dallas this week too, but the QB situation on both sides make me pass.

 

[Timmay]

It's a trap, kind of like New England last night. On a neutral field, I'd take Cleveland over Miami with McCown or Griffin at QB. I'm not willing to count on Kessler being terrible to trust Miami. I'd take the 10 points before I would lay the 10, but I'd pass because of the unknown.

I like Dallas this week too, but the QB situation on both sides make me pass.

You are doing a good job of making me not trust the Dolphins. I am leaning towards Bucs vs Rams. A game where it isn't 2 do or die 0-2 teams battling it out. That is what scares me the most about the Dolphins vs Browns. With the Bears, you dont know what you are going to get with Hoyer on a Sunday night game. I dont trust Dallas at the moment. 

 

[massraider]

It's a trap, kind of like New England last night. On a neutral field, I'd take Cleveland over Miami with McCown or Griffin at QB. I'm not willing to count on Kessler being terrible to trust Miami. I'd take the 10 points before I would lay the 10, but I'd pass because of the unknown.

I like Dallas this week too, but the QB situation on both sides make me pass.

What is kind of the Pats last night, the Browns?  What are the similarities between a AFC title game mainstay, at home, and the #2 pick holding Browns, on the road, and on their 3rd QB, and 3rd and 4th WRs?

The Browns don't even have a healthy kicker.  They just ran out and signed one, because their kicker was hurt in practie today.  I was unaware that is possible.

 

[massraider]

Advanced this week, all because of Cody Parkey.  I might buy a Parkey jersey.  

 

[ffrookie]

No kidding. Glad I can not pick Miami again - heartburn city.

 

[TeeDub]

Never picking Miami in a survivor again. They're officially on the Jets, Falcons level on teams u can never trust no matter which way u take them. Many of us got lucky today and week 1 

 

[Futz]

Never picking Miami in a survivor again. They're officially on the Jets, Falcons level on teams u can never trust no matter which way u take them. Many of us got lucky today and week 1 

I took Miami with both my entries and I was going to be at peace with it if it failed. It should have been the safest pick and I was never going to consider them again this year. Dodged a AK47 spray of bullets but we move on.

 

[Interseptopus]

Miami is such a crap shoot when you pick them. At least we survived... so many in my league picked Arizona and got burned. 

Onto Week 4!! A tough one...

Miami at Cincinnati: Do we want to pick against them after they almost lost to the Browns? I'll probably take a pass but the Bengals should win

Cleveland at Washington: I'm a little gun shy picking against Cleveland now, but Washington has a much better defense. This may be my pick.

Buffalo at New England: At this point seems like New England can trot out Drew Bledsoe in a walker and still win... I'd have a hard time picking New England with confidence though. 

Los Angeles at Arizona: Arizona coming off of a disappointing loss and hosting one of the worst teams in the league. The only down side is it's a divisional game

Dallas at San Francisco: Away game for Dallas... tough to pick this one but this would be the last game you would pick Dallas for, so it has attraction for me. 

For me... I'm probably picking Washington because they have zero games I would select for the rest of the season. Otherwise I'm kind of torn. I can't find myself picking NE with confidence so I'm between CIN and AZ but both have excellent ROS value. Dallas I could see good reasoning for too, but away.... 

 

[CentralPA]

Advanced this week, all because of Cody Parkey.  I might buy a Parkey jersey.  

As an Eagles fan, thank you for saving my ### Cody.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Buffalo at New England: At this point seems like New England can trot out Drew Bledsoe in a walker and still win... I'd have a hard time picking New England with confidence though. 

come on now, bledsoe was a good qb. i think belichick proving brady is jag. /bradyhater

tough week to pick with lots of good upset possibilities. the one "easy" pick has come through every week so far, this might be the first weeder week this year.

 

[Interseptopus]

come on now, bledsoe was a good qb. i think belichick proving brady is jag. /bradyhater

tough week to pick with lots of good upset possibilities. the one "easy" pick has come through every week so far, this might be the first weeder week this year.

Yes, he was good but my point was he could be out there in a walker and look good. But yes, this really goes to show that Belichick is the reason for Brady's success. Unfortunately Brady will still go into the HOF. Hopefully with some asterisks next to his name for the numerous cheating offenses, but that's for another thread... 

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Houston hosting Tennessee or Pats hosting Buffalo this week, I hear Belichick will line up at QB.

 

[Lascelle]

Last week was a nailbiter... but the Browns have lost 7 straight on the road.  And 12 out of their last 13 outside of an OT win in Baltimore in Week 5 of last season. They've got a lot of offensive firepower and I'm also not sure about taking Washington to beat them.  The Redskins have lost both of their home starts this season. How sour would you feel betting against the Browns again and losing after escaping with Miami last week?

The Cardinals burned a bunch of people last year in Survivor losing to the Rams at home in Week 4 while being heavily favored.  That's an identical scenario we're seeing this week and the respective records of these teams aren't nearly as lopsided.  I'm staying away.

Cincinnati on a short week?  Seems tempting but they haven't exactly impressed either with their sole win being a squeaker against the Jets.

The Steelers have won 5 straight at home but their offense seems suspect after getting smothered by the Eagles.  They could only muster up a field goal and they're about to face a Chiefs defense that just held the Jets to a similar result (albeit at Arrowhead).

Houston hosting Tenny now that they've lost J.J. Watt indefinitely?  I mean, it should be safe with the extra time to prepare but I'm still feeling antsy after that road upset against the Lions in Week 2.

I'm leaning strongly towards taking the Patriots - even with the continued absence of Brady.  They haven't lost a game of consequence to the Bills in over 5 years. They haven't lost a game that mattered to the Bills in New England since Belichick's first year as head coach way back in 2000 before Brady was even a starter.  So yeah, despite being a division game, this is a result I'm pretty confident about.

 

[Interseptopus]

Last week was a nailbiter... but the Browns have lost 7 straight on the road.  And 12 out of their last 13 outside of an OT win in Baltimore in Week 5 of last season. They've got a lot of offensive firepower and I'm also not sure about taking Washington to beat them.  The Redskins have lost both of their home starts this season. How sour would you feel betting against the Browns again and losing after escaping with Miami last week?

The Cardinals burned a bunch of people last year in Survivor losing to the Rams at home in Week 4 while being heavily favored.  That's an identical scenario we're seeing this week and the respective records of these teams aren't nearly as lopsided.  I'm staying away.

Cincinnati on a short week?  Seems tempting but they haven't exactly impressed either with their sole win being a squeaker against the Jets.

The Steelers have won 5 straight at home but their offense seems suspect after getting smothered by the Eagles.  They could only muster up a field goal and they're about to face a Chiefs defense that just held the Jets to a similar result (albeit at Arrowhead).

Houston hosting Tenny now that they've lost J.J. Watt indefinitely?  I mean, it should be safe with the extra time to prepare but I'm still feeling antsy after that road upset against the Lions in Week 2.

I'm leaning strongly towards taking the Patriots - even with the continued absence of Brady.  They haven't lost a game of consequence to the Bills in over 5 years. They haven't lost a game that mattered to the Bills in New England since Belichick's first year as head coach way back in 2000 before Brady was even a starter.  So yeah, despite being a division game, this is a result I'm pretty confident about.

Good post. I like Washington because their defense is tougher than Miami and they have actual game film of Kessler to prepare. Also what really tips this to Washington for me is the fact Washington doesn't have a single game I'd take the rest of the year. Coming off an emotional win or loss is never a good sign for that team the next week

Miami and Cincinnati... I can see this pick but I agree this could be a trap game. I still think Cincinnati wins but I'm staying away 

Houston and tennessee... no I'm staying away. Also I have already used Houston so there's that

New England I just can't take with the uncertainties. Also they are very valuable ROS.

Same with Pitt. I would rather save them.

Arizona is a high percentage pick on yahoo but I'd stay away. AZ lost to the Rams last year heavily favored

I am going with Washington for a variety of reasons. After last week in Miami I'm not very confident in Cleveland being that bad but I am way less confident in any other pick this week

 

[Hawkeye21]

This is a great time to pick the Lions.  The Bears are a mess and the Lions can pass all over them.  I don't think there are too many other times I would pick the Lions so this is a great place for them.  The next time they play the Bears they'll be at home so that could be good too but the Bears will most likely be healthier.

 

[Futz]

This is a great time to pick the Lions.  The Bears are a mess and the Lions can pass all over them.  I don't think there are too many other times I would pick the Lions so this is a great place for them.  The next time they play the Bears they'll be at home so that could be good too but the Bears will most likely be healthier.

Take it from a homer, there is NEVER a good time to take OR pick against them.

 

[Interseptopus]

This is a great time to pick the Lions.  The Bears are a mess and the Lions can pass all over them.  I don't think there are too many other times I would pick the Lions so this is a great place for them.  The next time they play the Bears they'll be at home so that could be good too but the Bears will most likely be healthier.

hmmm... Interesting... only thing I don't like is it's at Chicago, and divisional game. If I make it to week 14 I'd probably take them at home vs Chicago. I could get over the divisional aspect if it was not on the road, but this is playing with fire

 

[Futz]

I kinda like Baltimore in a week where there are very few locks if any. Oakland has to travel across the country for a 1pm start and their defense is a mess.

We are getting to the weeks where I'm willing to roll the dice a bit especially if you have multiple entries left still.