I like Cincinnati's off-season so far but they were still a 75 win team last season. Suarez, Aquino and Gray are regression candidates and Votto's ability to stay healthy at age 36 is a question mark. Unlike the White Sox, they don't have much talent down on the farm.
With the three teams above them in the Central treading water, the division is shaping up as a battle but it'll take 90 wins to take it. I think the Reds still have some work to do to get there.
True, but their win total was well below their pythagorean W-L, which suggests they suffered more than their fair share of bad luck loses last year, which as a fan I can confirm.
Suarez could regress, but at age 28 he could also be just hitting his prime. And even if he does regress, his salary is still a bargain for even regressed production.
Aquino only had one month where he had an impact. In September his OPS was around .600. Even if he heads back to AAA, it's only 1/6th of an impact player they lose from last year.
Gray will only be 30, and is done trying to add another pitch to his repertoire, which is what caused his mid-career troubles.
Votto's OPS was only .768 last year. He's already regressed, and if he can't stay healthy it's not hard for the Reds to replace his current production in the lineup.
On the positive, the hope that Winker would become an every day player is over. You'll probably never see him start against another lefty ever again. He does however have a career OPS against righties over .900.
The same holds true for Ervin. Given how many righties there are, you may see him start against one occasionally, but that's where he struggles. On the other hand, he has a career OPS against lefities over .900.
The planned platoon in left of Winker and Ervin could result in the reds getting .850+ OPS out of left field.
And Nick Senzel has a ton of upside. Not only will he likely contribute more offensively in 2020, but with the addition of Shogo, he may end up being a valuable utility player. He can backup Shogo in center, and play center while Shogo plays right to backup Aquino, play 2nd to backup Moose, play 3rd to backup Suarez (or play 2nd while Moose plays 3rd), and play 2nd while Moose plays 1st to backup Votto (which may happen a lot given as you point out Votto may not stay healthy). In fact, Senzel's OPS may even be better than Votto's OPS this year, which would improve the offense when Votto is out. But given how much Votto makes, he's going to play whenever he can.
The Reds offensive issues come down to Galvis at short and Barnhart at C. While that's two significant issues, last year it was three. It was Galvis at 2nd (and Dietrich/Peraza before him), Barnhart at C, and Iglesias at SS. While Iglesias had a decent BA and a career high in HRs, he still only contributed a .724 OPS. Mouse is replacing that with an .845.
They should have won 80 games last year according to pythagorean W-L, and with the changes they've made there seems to be more potential for improvement than expected regression. I don't know if I'd call them the central division favorite, but I think 80+ wins is more than a realistic expectation.