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2021 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

Based on these numbers from @Ignoratio Elenchi, the average teams has

QB: 2.9 for $35
RB: 5.2 for $84
WR: 6.4 for $82
TE: 2.5 for $32
PK: 2.2 for $8
DEF: 2.3 for $9
tot: 21.4 for $250

and the average player on their team is on 15.3% of rosters.

In the past few years, these numbers were

QB 2020: 2.8 for $34, 2019: 2.6 for $34, 2018: 2.9 for $31
RB 2020: 5.2 for $88, 2019: 5.3 for $83, 2018: 5.4 for $86
WR 2020: 6.0 for $82, 2019: 5.7 for $82, 2018: 6.4 for $83
TE 2020: 2.5 for $28, 2019: 2.3 for $30, 2018: 2.5 for $30
PK 2020: 2.2 for $8, 2019: 2.2 for $10, 2018: 2.3 for $8
Def 2020: 2.3 for $9, 2019: 2.2 for $12, 2018: 2.3 for $11
tot 2020: 21.1 for $250, 2019: 20.3 for $250, 2018: 21.8 for $250

roster% 2020: 11.7%, 2019: 15.4%, 2018: 13.1%.

 
In my (pre-wk1) opinion, these are some of the best options at QB/RB/TE/WR that are on less than 5% of rosters:

3.5% QB D Prescott DAL    $22
1.6% QB J Goff DET    $8
4.7% QB T Taylor HOU    $4
2.0% RB S Barkley NYG    $28
5.0% RB C Hyde JAX    $4
3.9% TE H Henry NE    $9
4.7% TE D Parham LAC    $3
1.9% WR A Cooper DAL    $22
3.3% WR D Samuel SF    $13
3.8% WR M Thomas NO    $13
3.4% WR M Williams LAC    $12
2.3% WR C Beasley BUF    $10
0.7% WR R Bateman BAL    $8
5.0% WR E Sanders BUF    $7
4.4% WR N Agholor NE    $6
4.0% WR S Watkins BAL    $5
4.7% WR A St. Brown DET    $5
1.1% WR Q Cephus DET    $4
2.8% WR N Collins HOU    $4
3.7% WR K Hamler DEN    $4
3.8% WR J Crowder NYJ    $4
1.4% WR D Eskridge SEA    $3
2.0% WR K Toney NYG    $3
2.2% WR D Robinson KC    $3
4.8% WR D Jackson LAR    $3

I've bolded the ones on my roster.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
OK my ***extremely unofficial*** estimate of the current cut line is 145.85.  
Click to expand...
Thanks.  To my surprise, I may just survive, even though I have to use Elliott's score as my 2nd RB. Currently at 160.15 with Andrews and B. Edwards (both -5.9 and 12.9) and Carlson (-8.3).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK said:
In my (pre-wk1) opinion, these are some of the best options at QB/RB/TE/WR that are on less than 5% of rosters:

3.5% QB D Prescott DAL    $22
1.6% QB J Goff DET    $8
4.7% QB T Taylor HOU    $4
2.0% RB S Barkley NYG    $28
5.0% RB C Hyde JAX    $4
3.9% TE H Henry NE    $9
4.7% TE D Parham LAC    $3
1.9% WR A Cooper DAL    $22
3.3% WR D Samuel SF    $13
3.8% WR M Thomas NO    $13
3.4% WR M Williams LAC    $12
2.3% WR C Beasley BUF    $10
0.7% WR R Bateman BAL    $8
5.0% WR E Sanders BUF    $7
4.4% WR N Agholor NE    $6
4.0% WR S Watkins BAL    $5
4.7% WR A St. Brown DET    $5
1.1% WR Q Cephus DET    $4
2.8% WR N Collins HOU    $4
3.7% WR K Hamler DEN    $4
3.8% WR J Crowder NYJ    $4
1.4% WR D Eskridge SEA    $3
2.0% WR K Toney NYG    $3
2.2% WR D Robinson KC    $3
4.8% WR D Jackson LAR    $3

I've bolded the ones on my roster.
Click to expand...
Thanks for this summary.  I wanted to have Michael Thomas but feared surviving the cut before he comes back in late October / early November.  You may have found a gem in Deebo.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Size Count
18 2510
19 1267
20 1004
21 927
22 857
23 707
24 619
25 552
26 404
27 284
28 203
29 174
30 283
Click to expand...

Very Interesting and thanks @Ignoratio Elenchi!

Given there are 4781 teams with 18-20 players on their rosters (48%) its going to be very interesting to see how those mid to bigger rosters fare given injuries/covid/byes later stages of the season. and how much of a studs/duds/mass value picks will impact that 25% cut when we get into the later stages of the contest!

I'm in the 24 roster club so we shall see how it goes....

 
Most years it's not worth taking much note until several weeks into the season. This year it's a pretty big accomplishment to survive every week there is.

More than half the entries will be eliminated after week 3.

 
scoobus said:
Most years it's not worth taking much note until several weeks into the season. This year it's a pretty big accomplishment to survive every week there is.

More than half the entries will be eliminated after week 3.
Click to expand...
Yeah I was saying to someone offline, especially with fewer than 10,000 entries, in a normal year there might not have been any cuts at all until week 3. But instead we’ll lose more than half by week 4. Crazy. 

 
rustycolts said:
It worked for me yesterday but now I can't seem to get it to work either just showing projections.
Click to expand...


The Projections turn into actual points scored after their games are complete.  When I go to the matchup dominator tab, I only see 19.14 points projected for my team. That is the one player that hasn't played yet. Waller is projected for that. Otherwise all of the points behind each player are actual points scored running down the page. Waller is the only player that has numbers for projected points, Floor, and Upside. All of the other players just has numbers in the one column since there's no more floor or upside to be had.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
OK, set up a spreadsheet and I *think* I'm at 143.2 + (Andrews - 3.80).

Welp, it was a run 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK said:
In my (pre-wk1) opinion, these are some of the best options at QB/RB/TE/WR that are on less than 5% of rosters:

3.5% QB D Prescott DAL    $22
1.6% QB J Goff DET    $8
4.7% QB T Taylor HOU    $4
2.0% RB S Barkley NYG    $28
5.0% RB C Hyde JAX    $4
3.9% TE H Henry NE    $9
4.7% TE D Parham LAC    $3
1.9% WR A Cooper DAL    $22
3.3% WR D Samuel SF    $13
3.8% WR M Thomas NO    $13
3.4% WR M Williams LAC    $12
2.3% WR C Beasley BUF    $10
0.7% WR R Bateman BAL    $8
5.0% WR E Sanders BUF    $7
4.4% WR N Agholor NE    $6
4.0% WR S Watkins BAL    $5
4.7% WR A St. Brown DET    $5
1.1% WR Q Cephus DET    $4
2.8% WR N Collins HOU    $4
3.7% WR K Hamler DEN    $4
3.8% WR J Crowder NYJ    $4
1.4% WR D Eskridge SEA    $3
2.0% WR K Toney NYG    $3
2.2% WR D Robinson KC    $3
4.8% WR D Jackson LAR    $3

I've bolded the ones on my roster.
Click to expand...
 I seriously considered M Williams and considered Watkins and Eskridge.

 
MikesVikes said:
The Projections turn into actual points scored after their games are complete.  When I go to the matchup dominator tab, I only see 19.14 points projected for my team. That is the one player that hasn't played yet. Waller is projected for that. Otherwise all of the points behind each player are actual points scored running down the page. Waller is the only player that has numbers for projected points, Floor, and Upside. All of the other players just has numbers in the one column since there's no more floor or upside to be had.
Click to expand...
Where do you see the projections?

 
Got excited seeing my entry was still alive. 
then I noticed scoring isn’t in :bag:  

when do we get the scores? 

 
Mister CIA said:
Looks like week one has been tabulated. Cutoff = 151.15

I survived with 176.90, but not liking my long term prospects.
Click to expand...
176.35 for me and ditto--losing Gus left a hole in my RBs that my 3 "bargain" guys need to fill, and this week they combined for 1.8 points. Would also be nice if Dallas moved Zeke from fullback to RB.

 
Top 3:

1. Entry 107146 253.45

2. Entry 105091 251.35

3. Veebs 246.60  <------ that's me.

Teams 1 and 2 have only 18 players.  Team 2, like me, has Gus Edwards.  

These factors suggest I'll miss the cut next week (LOL!!), but its nice to dream.

 
apalmer said:
176.35 for me and ditto--losing Gus left a hole in my RBs that my 3 "bargain" guys need to fill, and this week they combined for 1.8 points. Would also be nice if Dallas moved Zeke from fullback to RB.
Click to expand...
Similar issue, except replace Gus with Mostert.  I also have Zeke, here's to hoping that he can totally redeem himself. ... Aaron Rodgers too.

 
Mister CIA said:
It will be interesting to see how this week's top scorer fares over the next week or two with 3 RBs and 4 WRs.
Click to expand...
Looks like a team that can score a ton of points and make a big splash early, but has little to no chance to survive Week 12 (Mahomes, Hill, Pringle, Kelce and Butker byes) and 13 (Chubb/Hunt byes leave him with only Singletary at RB).

 
Mister CIA said:
Looks like week one has been tabulated. Cutoff = 151.15

I survived with 176.90, but not liking my long term prospects.
Click to expand...
Thanks....scored 172 and change, but lost Fitzmagic & Gus so down at the start. 

The Goose Egg from Gesicki hurt many

Others losing Jeudy would hurt more, but I went Sutton as a lower cost option. 

 
Well, that my quickest exit ever... my RBs are what did me in.  

Najee Harris          $25      5.40 
James Robinson        $16      6.90 
Trey Sermon           $15      0.00 
Gus Edwards           $11      0.00 
Rhamondre Stevenson    $3      1.60 
Wayne Gallman          $3      0.00

 
Pretty sure 151 is the highest week 1 cut line ever.

I squeaked by 6 over the line. Don't love my long term prospects. Wish I'd gone with some earlier configurations.

I think the survivability of the larger teams will prove to be much higher than all these 18 player teams. The cut line is going to stay high throughout, whenever these small teams have a handful of players have an off game the same day, they're gone.

 
Survived week 1 thanks to Brady and my TEs. WR production was just adequate and RBs put up a pretty weak showing that I could see being a chronic problem.

 
That is quite the cut line. Scored 195.85. The contest may actually get easier as we go along. Now I wonder if later bye weeks are better than earlier ones.

 
The leader this week only has the 18 minimum roster. Three RBs.

The second top  scorer also has a 18 man roster. Including Gus Edwards, he'll have 7 of 18 players on bye or out in week 7. That includes both of his defenses.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
178.45 feels solid despite only having essentially 3 RBs after losing Gus (technically 4, one is the NE "Harris/Stevenson" combo).  Also lost Jeudy, but at least I have 6 other WRs still.  But only having 3 RBs feels like it's going to just be a question of when, not if, I get eliminated.

 
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