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2021 FBG Subscriber Contest (5 Viewers)

fwiw my strategy every year is deep rosters and survive and advance. i love the sweat and posting in the thread and checking in on everybody every week. next year i think ill finally just do an 18 man roster since ive only ever made the playoffs once in like 10 years anyway.

 
it depends on what your goal is. if you are selling out to maximize your chances of winning, an 18-man stud-filled roster with stacking is ideal. if your goal is to give you the best chance to survive and advance every week the 30-man roster is likely best. the 30-man roster is more likely to make the playoffs than the 18-man but a lot less likely to win when it gets there.


Hard to say.  Small rosters start out at 20x times the entires and end up flooding the finals.  The difference between an 18 player stud roster and a 28 player roster is turning a $30 stud into 10 x $3 darts shots.

 
yeah this has been discussed both earlier in this thread an in all the threads in prior years. ill let others who have all that info post it instead of trying to remember with my old senile ###. i mean butt (sorry, joe).

youre right on both counts. survivorship bias basically dictates that the team that wins just chose their studs correctly, for lack of a better way to put it.

what i remember when glancing through the playoff rosters from previous years was this phenomenon: so let's say you put together a 30-man roster with like 11 cheap WRs. 3 or 4 of them hit and carry you into the playoffs. you get to the playoffs and youre up against teams that have those guys plus like ceedee lamb (stacked with dak) or keenan allen (stacked with herbert) and you basically cant win.

again, ill leave it to others who have exact data on this chime in.
Can't pull up last year's winners (page goes to not found)

2019 it was 18 man roster: https://footballguys.com/subscribers/contest/2019/100674.php

 
I went with a 30 man roster because I wanted to stay in  as long as I could. I love this contest so going out early kind of dampers my whole ff season. 

I think the 25% cuts kind of screws up the longevity of the larger teams as much as the smaller ones. It would be interesting to see how each group faired. 

 
What pick or picks sunk you in week 1? I advanced mainly due to Gronk. Otherwise it would have been a super close call. 
QB - Matthew Stafford - 14
QB - Ryan Fitzpatrick - 9
QB - Tyrod Taylor - 4
RB - Jonathan Taylor - 31
RB - Chase Edmonds - 21
RB - James Robinson - 16
RB - Ronald Jones - 11
RB - Gus Edwards - 11
WR - Stefon Diggs - 32
WR - Mike Evans - 21
WR - Jerry Jeudy - 16
WR - Rondale Moore - 9
WR - Parris Campbell - 6
WR - Jamison Crowder - 4
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 3
TE - Kyle Pitts - 17
TE - Anthony Firkser - 7
TE - Jack Doyle - 4
PK - Dustin Hopkins - 3
PK - Greg Joseph - 3
PK - Evan McPherson - 2
TD - Philadelphia Eagles - 2
TD - Dallas Cowboys - 2
TD - Tennessee Titans - 2

There were some injuries and bad weeks all around but the killer for me was really no one having a great week.  stafford and taylor had nice weeks but everyone lse was middling.  I wasnt close  I had 132 vs cut line of 151

 
148.45 with CHE counting the rest of this game

lion and GB DEF -4

Cobb and MVS -2.8 and -4.6

Might survive with WR's under 10 point

 
Well just 136.85 for me this week I'm afraid that's not going to be enough I figure the cut will be between 140 and 145.

 
I cannot imagine a low enough cut line for me to survive this week. Earliest I have ever gone out. QB - Tom Brady - 17
QB - Sam Darnold - 8
QB - Tyrod Taylor - 4
RB - David Montgomery - 22
RB - Mike Davis - 19
RB - James Robinson - 16
RB - Gus Edwards - 11
RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - 3
RB - Mark Ingram - 3
WR - Calvin Ridley - 27
WR - A.J. Brown - 27
WR - Brandin Cooks - 16
WR - Jarvis Landry - 13
WR - Mecole Hardman - 10
WR - Marquez Callaway - 5
TE - Mark Andrews - 16
TE - Austin Hooper - 8
TE - Chris Herndon - 5
PK - Younghoe Koo - 4
PK - Brandon McManus - 3
PK - Evan McPherson - 2
TD - Washington Football Team - 5
TD - Chicago Bears - 3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - 3

 
Sweating the Turk this week.   :scared:

Sitting at 111.2 with a terrible showing from the WR and QB Core.  Need some massive help from... Detroit?!?  Still hopeful that somehow the game is a shootout

  • QB:  Goff - 12
  • RB:   Done with Pollard and Robinson counting for me.  Thanks for the game Kamara.
  • WR:  St. Brown - 2.8 (What happened Shenault, Davis, Callaway, Brown???)
  • TE:  Hockenson - 8.2
  • DEF:  GB - 5
Definitely need a low cutoff this week.

 
Brady, Pittman, Kelce, and Carlson hopefully doing enough to push me through.

161.1

Hock (-7)

GB (-0)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
164.4 after Sunday night.  To go:

Cobb (-10.5)

Valdes Scantling (-10.5)

Packers D (-5)

I think I might be okay, but it'll be close.

Absolutely atrocious RB game, and I've got 7 of them.

 
109 + all of Cobb, MVS, and Hockerson.  See you guys next year.

Kicking myself for ditching Galloway in the last iteration.

 
Galloway?
Joey, baby - don't get crazy
Detours, fences, I get defensive

I know you've heard it all before
So I don't say it anymore
I just stand by and let you
Fight your secret war
And though I used to wonder why
I used to cry till I was dry
Still sometimes I get a strange pain inside
Oh, Joey, if you're hurting so am I

 
Wow I might actually make it!


Yeah I think I might skate by this week too, I'm around 140 with Packers DST -6 or something.  My team is definitely not long for this contest either way. 

There were a couple of other posters who said they were working on a scoring solution, I sent them all the rosters so hopefully some time in the near future they'll have something put together to provide scoring updates. 

 
Joey, baby - don't get crazy
Detours, fences, I get defensive

I know you've heard it all before
So I don't say it anymore
I just stand by and let you
Fight your secret war
And though I used to wonder why
I used to cry till I was dry
Still sometimes I get a strange pain inside
Oh, Joey, if you're hurting so am I
Daddy please don't
It wasn't his fault
He means so much to me
Daddy please don't
We're gon... na get... mar... ried...

Run, Joey run, Joey run, Joey run, Joey run, Joey run, Joey ruuuuuunn!

 
Extremely unofficially 134.2
Hopefully its roughly around this at the end, I'm sitting at 149.45 with a few that could exceed what I got from others:

QB Rodgers (Just need to exceed Big Ben's 19.75 to count)

QB Goff (Same as rodgers)

WR MVS (Would need to exceed Edwards 7 or Mixon 8.1 to count)

TE Hock (Same as MVS)

Packers Def (Need to exceed Dal 6 to count)

I think I may finish around 155ish, so hopefully live to die another week! 

 
201 by my box scoring math excel sheet madness, thanks to Brady, Derrick Henry Pittman, Carlson and several low double digit folks. 

I would like to ask what is going on in Chicago with Robinson, where are the targets? Dude is money.

 
201 by my box scoring math excel sheet madness, thanks to Brady, Derrick Henry Pittman, Carlson and several low double digit folks. 

I would like to ask what is going on in Chicago with Robinson, where are the targets? Dude is money.
Robinson is Chicago's version of megatron.  All world player married to a dumpster fire franchise.

 
Ugh, sitting right at 130. I've got Aaron Rodgers (-18.75 for Big Ben).  If Rodgers totally redeems himself tonight, I may survive.

Too bad kickers cannot be used in the flex, because my kickers we'r on fire this week (Carlsen, Blankenship, and McManus).  Would've padded my total by 16.4 points if they were flexed.

 
Sweating the Turk this week.   :scared:

Sitting at 111.2 with a terrible showing from the WR and QB Core.  Need some massive help from... Detroit?!?  Still hopeful that somehow the game is a shootout

  • QB: 


    Goff

    - 12
  • RB:   Done with

    Pollard

    and


    Robinson

    counting for me.  Thanks for the game


    Kamara

    .
  • WR: 

    St. Brown

    - 2.8 (What happened


    Shenault

    ,


    Davis

    ,


    Callaway

    ,


    Brown

    ???)
  • TE: 

    Hockenson

    - 8.2
  • DEF:  GB - 5
Definitely need a low cutoff this week.


Well.. making hope for me.. Goff and Hockenson counting.. now up to 126.25.. need a few more TDs and need St. Brown to get one.  Virginia, is there a Santa Clause?

 

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