barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yep. I've already cut him in my mind at this point. If he does emerge it will be a waiver wire situation and that's fine.
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2021 NFL Free Agency Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
The argument was really that RoJo was going to be the more explosive, two-down back. It's right upthread on the previous page between menobrown and Boston. I chimed in that I agreed with Boston and gave as (one) reason that Fournette was making starter money. That's how the argument happened. It was indeed about the Bucs, and I was saying that Jones wouldn't be the bell cow or starter, which is a whole lot different than saying Fournette would be a reasonable starter for fantasy purposes. In that sense, I don't blame you for not getting the argument. The argument is an argument between me and MAC_32 over a particular point about a particular player. It was a relevant tangent, but not a determining one.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
It's like Major League when they're all sitting around arguing about the trajectory of the moon shot home run dinger from like 20 minutes earlier. "Who gives a ####, it's gone?!"
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Let me sum this up - Avoid the Buccaneers backfield.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm avoiding their WRs and TEs as well. Their QB is honestly probably undervalued in redraft though.
Back to FA......anyone interesting left out there?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Might be a good best ball stack though
zamboni
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't agree. I have RoJo as a #4 in two different leagues. Like last year, I ain't moving him and I expect to use him this year.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Tell you what, by keeping the band together I have to assume they are going to improve as a team this year. They're likely to be in plenty of positive game scripts for running out the clock with the lead. If you're in redraft sitting around the 6.12/7.01 or something and want to do a zero RB draft, might not be a bad play. This has never really worked for me in the past, though. It is better to have conviction about one of the two and be right about it than to wait for an injury. Is 7.12/8.01 out of the question? I haven't looked since they signed LF but I have to assume both ADPs crater.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
#4 seems like a nice sweet spot for him. I would not be in a hurry to sell if he was my RB4. To reiterate, he is 23.
MAC_32
Footballguy
There wasn't a market for him last year. I don't expect a market for him this year. I don't think it'd be wise to unload a high variance player just to get rid of him.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You have to take your hat off to that. $38M for 5 starts in 12 years. I suppose he will have a healthy body and plenty of money post-retirement.
My response to you on this would be what did those PFF metrics show after week 14 when Arians told Fournette his new reality was backing up ROJO and if he did not like that he would cut him?
ROJO got COVID and hurt and Fournette did really well in a few games but those factors you presented for ROJO not seeing the field I'm guessing existed up until week 14.
And I don't see it this way at all but I think this has been discussed to death. Would you say same thing about Drake or Gio?
Not really any more then signing AB tells me how they feel about Godwin or Evans.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
Kudos to @Anarchy99for keeping the free agency thread current with information on the player signings.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I think I am conflating "how they view him/them for NFL purposes" with "what that means for my fantasy teams". I don't think they hate Jones but they definitely aren't making him any kind of bellcow. Whereas I thought they might have if they hadn't resigned LF. But no this tells me they view him as a complimentary piece of a backfield. It makes a lot of NFL sense.menobrown said:
Similarly with AB but in no way would I consider that an indictment of Evans/Godwin. I don't see Jones being a Buc in 2022 though.
For me the signing reflected nothing on how they feel about ROJO. Fournette was not a priority, someone they wanted back if the price was right and it was. I expect he'll return to his role as third down back, primary backup, split it up goal line work and be ready to take over any game any week if he's the hot hand.
The reason I don't think it changes how I they view ROJO is it's been pretty obvious for awhile they are not enamored of him as a three down back and they sure as heck don't trust him in the passing game. But I don't think anything is changing the role he had before he got hurt/covid either, which ain't great but it is the starter over Fournette and was at least usable in a low end RB2 way.
As with AB and Fournette the main thing both of their signings tell me is they were just solid cost vets who fit into a team in win now mode. Neither are or were priority signings.
If I"m coming across as someone on team ROJO I do own him in some places, but about equal to were I own Fournette so I'd be good with any of them stepping up into a solid role. But as I've said before I view Fournette resigning as negative for both of them but for dynasty purposes the whole thing makes considerably lower on Fournette then ROJO and I'll say why..
You can say the Fournette signing is somewhat relative to how the Buccaners feel about ROJO but the way the entire NFL has shown me how they feel about Fournette is a lot more concerning. Jags only cut him because no one would trade for him. And now twice he's hit the open market and it's been cold.
Again I own Fournette on dynasty leagues and seeing his cold market after I had hoped he picked it up with his playoff run was for me more disappointing about him resigning then any impact on ROJO, who I figured was no better then 2 down role no matter what.
Not sure why Tyler Lockett got just shy of Golladay money for his 4 year extension. In September he’s 29 and despite being a model of perfect health, for his six year career his high water mark is 1054 yards with one of the best QBs of this generation. I don’t get breaking the bank for him.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Other than Schwartz and Ingram I'm not all that surprised. Not saying that there aren't many FA's out there that could help most teams(like Wright, Casey, Malcolm Butler, Duke Johnson) but even in a normal offseason I'm not sure teams spend as freely at those positions. There are also a ton of good players with asterisks that make them risky. For instance if people knew Eric Fisher were going to be healthy for game 1 of the season he would have been signed a long time ago but that Achilles injury happened very late.
I think some FA's are playing the Clowney game and won't be happy when the music stops. A playoff team with lots of cap room like the Colts could really bolster their depth with short term contracts and make a very deep playoff run. They had the same 11-5 record as TB last season so they are closer than most people seem realize. The Ravens have been very responsible in their spending as well and could score some bargains that help them take the next step.
It's gotta be touchdowns. TDs are the most unpredictable stat but Seattle has long been contrarian thinkers.
Overall it's a puzzling use of resources. While a nice player, Lockett has and always will be at best the WRs2 on a team that says they want to run, run run. Last week they cut their best DL over money and they already had the worst DL in the league. Plus they have to pay top dollar to their box safety they traded two firsts plus for. Their GM should be on the hot seat, but instead he just got an extension. In the arms race that is the NFC West, there's a good chance the Seahawks finish 4th in the division, and they don't have their own first in 2022.
jtd13
Footballguy
Disagree that Lockett has been a model of perfect health. He blew out his leg at the end of year 2 and basically was not full strength until year 4, when he finally broke out. The targets haven't been there for high yardage until the last 2 seasons, but he's been very good when targeted since recovering. He's a really good WR, and I'd much rather have him on my NFL team for the price than Golladay.
I don't disagree that it's a strange use of resources for Seattle, though. If they are planning to be run heavy, don't spend up for receiver.
I don't disagree that it's a strange use of resources for Seattle, though. If they are planning to be run heavy, don't spend up for receiver.
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zamboni
Footballguy
Fair points. Seems like this is a case where they’re taking care of one of their own very valuable players (granted at a steep price) and not have to worry about replacing him. For all this talk about wanting to run the ball a ton, there’s a difference between wanting to and being able to. This team has some holes and they may be forced to the air more than Pete would like.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The taking care of one of their own angles makes sense. After all, we did see Aaron Jones given a 4yr 48M deal this offseason when the team could have tagged him for 8.5M, then tagged him again for 10.5M. Instead they decided to throw their boy a bone and gave him 12/per. Homegrown guys get some love
BoltBacker
Footballguy
To me this is a much more mystifying move. Then you factor in they just spent a 2nd rounder a year ago(presumably to replace Jones instead of paying him) and you have a case of front office malpractice imo. Of course, if you go out of your way in consecutive years to alienate your HOF QB all the rest is barely a blip on the mismanagement scale.
You could make the argument that if SEA really does want to run the ball just having Lockett and Metcalf on the field help that running game quite a bit because defenses don't dare leave their CB's on an island so the S's and even LB's have plenty of responsibilities in coverage. I just don't think having a $12mil RB and a 2nd round RB helps Rodgers nearly as much as simply having reliable weapons in the passing game and sparing some of the wear and tear on Davante Adams and his ~150 targets/season.
In regards to last two post and Aaron Jones.
Green Bay played it perfectly and his contract worked way better then franchise tagging him and key to me saying these things is he ain't getting $12M per year. He got a 2 year deal for $20M max and anything after that is team option and year to year but he'll likely never see that third year of his deal without a re-structure.
This works out way better for GB because his cap charge this year and next is $4.475m and $9M in 2022. I think they will end up paying him similar to what they'd have paid him if they franchise tagged him this year and next but now get to spread out the hit. So one could argue the cost of spreading out that hit was committing yourself to Aaron Jones for 2 years instead of 1 and at his age, performance and what he means to the offense it's an easy call IMO.
As for Dillon he was a late second round pick who will have a sizeable role this year as well. Aaron Jones is a weapon, like a Kamara. Saints have paid Latavius fairly well last year few years and in general always had strong complement for their weapon/RB, Kamara. Panthers tried to sign Chris Carson this off-season to give their RB/weapon a nice complement. Bagging on Green Bay for taking Dillon a few picks from round 3 seems a bit premature to me.
Green Bay played it perfectly and his contract worked way better then franchise tagging him and key to me saying these things is he ain't getting $12M per year. He got a 2 year deal for $20M max and anything after that is team option and year to year but he'll likely never see that third year of his deal without a re-structure.
This works out way better for GB because his cap charge this year and next is $4.475m and $9M in 2022. I think they will end up paying him similar to what they'd have paid him if they franchise tagged him this year and next but now get to spread out the hit. So one could argue the cost of spreading out that hit was committing yourself to Aaron Jones for 2 years instead of 1 and at his age, performance and what he means to the offense it's an easy call IMO.
As for Dillon he was a late second round pick who will have a sizeable role this year as well. Aaron Jones is a weapon, like a Kamara. Saints have paid Latavius fairly well last year few years and in general always had strong complement for their weapon/RB, Kamara. Panthers tried to sign Chris Carson this off-season to give their RB/weapon a nice complement. Bagging on Green Bay for taking Dillon a few picks from round 3 seems a bit premature to me.
jtd13
Footballguy
It looked like a 2 year $29m deal to me, unless Jones misses a bunch of games (he has $200k-$400k game bonuses the next 2 seasons). No way he sees year 3 on that contract though, as you mentioned. His cap hit will be north of $20m in 2023.
From the Aaron Jones thread:
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$13M signing bonus
$3.75M roster bonus due in his second season
$600,000 in per game bonuses max and in total for first two years of his contract
$550,000 workout bonus in total for first two years of the contract
$1m base 2021
$1.1 m base in 2022
Nothing else guaranteed
Total: $20M
I can't find it now but the reason I looked it up in the first place was an article by ex-agent Joel Corry which said Aaron Jones would see $20M after two years and then Green Bay could be out.
I'm not sure as I've not done the math but I suspect you are looking at the per game bonus incorrectly. Those bonus are not for each and every game, that's he total for the season that he can reach for in game bonus.
jtd13
Footballguy
Yep that was it. It was worded as "per game bonus" in the tweet I saw, so I thought they meant each game. It seemed like a high bonus though...
