Extended Commentary
QB Pool Overview
With Josh Allen at $25, there’s little justification to spend $21-$23 unless you think one of QB2-QB6 will outscore him. I flirted with Joe Burrow at $21.
In the range $17-$19, you have mobile QBs who can provide the combination of rushing floor and passing upside. I’m investing in Jalen Hurts for this reason, but not without reservation.
$13-16 includes the two most likely popular QBs in Cousins and Carr. The value screams at everybody…I’m just not convinced that either can crack top 3. I’m also not convinced that the two might be outperformed by (a) Aaron Rodgers, or (b) some cheaper option like Trevor Lawrence or Jameis Winston.
Of the remaining QBs likely to approach 16-17 games played, I like Mills, Ryan, Tannehill, Mayfield and Mac Jones in roughly that order. Mills is my QB2.
Below that, Mariota, Brissett and Kenny Pickett with or without Trubisky are interesting to me. Pickett is my QB3. If this is a mistake, its because my QB1 bye is week 7 and my QB2 bye is week 6 and it will take X weeks for Pickett to take over. Brissett would be a lower risk choice but whatever.
QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/7 - $19
QB - Davis Mills - HOU/6 - $7
QB - Kenny Pickett - PIT/9 - $3
RB Pool Overview
The easiest way to summarize without figures, tables, etc. is to say there are very clear tiers that split after top 2, top 4, top 6, top 9, top 13, top 16 and top 20. Within the top 20, the names that sing to me are Taylor, Henry, Cook, Chubb, Fournette, J Williams, J Dobbins. The names that don’t are Mcaffrey, Eckler, Mixon, Harris, Swift, Kamara, Barkley, Jones, Connor, Elliot.
While I landed on Cook, Fournette and Dobbins as my top 3 roster RBs, I spent a lot of time thinking Derrick Henry and/or Chubb would be on my roster. I suspect RB1 will either be Taylor or Henry at the end of the year…yet I have neither. Floor and bye week were/are apparently more important to me.
Most of San Fran’s running attack is available through Mitchell ($18) plus Wilson ($3) and I’m buying. There are questions here with Trey Lance and Deebo, etc etc but the running game is foundational to San Fran’s attack. The same can be said of NEP and Harris/Stevenson but the split distribution is guesswork. I also like / heavily considered Pierce in Houston and Rashad Penny in Seattle, with some additional thoughts about Edmonds vs Mosfert in MIA, as well as Michael Carter in JY, Williams in ATL and Byron Scott in PHI.
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Leonard Fournette - TB/11 - $27
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL/10 - $21
RB - Elijah Mitchell - SF/9 - $18
RB - Jeff Wilson - SF/9 - $3 (handcuff)
WR Pool Overview
Kupp, Chase and Jefferson are their own pool ($35+, 325-350 points). I prioritized my RB budget and other squad needs over a willingness to invest $35+ here.
This year was strange in that it was difficult to get excited about any player between $20 and $28 at their projected value. I experimented with Godwin, Gabe Davis and Mike Williams as my WR1, and in the end settled on Mike Williams.
I also had limited interest in the large number of options available in the $12-$19 range, and focused on Davis, Jeudy, Renfrow, Lockett, D Smith, Lazard, Boyd, and D Hopkins (PED suspension W1-W6). Notable players in this range that should interest me but don’t (it’s a long list) include Metcalf, Thielen and JuJu among others.
In the bottom of the pool ($10 and under) I considered Obsorn, Parker, Pickens, Robinson, Landry, McKenzie, Jefferson, Palmer, PeoplesJones, Julio Jones, Nick WestbrookInkines, Watkins, Agholor.
WR - Mike Williams - LAC/8 - $21
WR - Hunter Renfrow - LV/6 - $15 (WR2 -> WR3 after Hopkins suspension)
WR - DeAndre Hopkins - ARI/13 - $14 (suspended -> WR2 / WR1? after week 6)
WR - Jarvis Landry - NO/14 - $9
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC/8 - $7
WR - Donovan Peoples-Jones - CLE/9 - $5
TE Pool Overview
There are two names that are irritatingly not on my roster: S Schultz and Albert O. I think I might prefer Schultz over Kittle this year and think Albert is undervalued, but I couldn’t make these roster picks fit with the rest of what I was trying to do. In theory I could replace Kittle with Schultz but I can’t make myself pull that trigger.
This year I prefer the $15-$18 TEs as an investment over the higher priced $21-$30 studs.
Similarly, this year, I prefer the bargain bin TEs over the $8-14 TEs, considering specific situations.
TE - George Kittle - SF/9 - $18
TE - Gerald Everett - LAC/8 - $8
TE - Taysom Hill - NO/14 - $5
Skill Position Flex Pool Bye Week Management
The best way to check bye weeks is to only consider RB/WR/TE and to define which 5 of these players on your roster are actually the starter vs available for flex scoring. In my case I have identified 6 starters because 1 of them (D Hopkins) is suspended in W1-W6.
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29 - STARTER
RB - Leonard Fournette - TB/11 - $27 – STARTER
WR - Mike Williams - LAC/8 - $21 - STARTER
WR - Hunter Renfrow - LV/6 - $15 - STARTER
WR - DeAndre Hopkins - ARI/13 - $14 - STARTER
TE - George Kittle - SF/9 - $18 - STARTER
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL/10 - $21 - FLEX
RB - Elijah Mitchell - SF/9 - $18 - FLEX
RB - Jeff Wilson - SF/9 - $3 – FLEX
WR - Jarvis Landry - NO/14 - $9 - FLEX
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC/8 - $7 - FLEX
WR - Donovan Peoples-Jones - CLE/9 - $5 - FLEX
TE - Gerald Everett - LAC/8 - $8 - FLEX
TE - Taysom Hill - NO/14 - $5 – FLEX
Splitting this way allows you to present bye week summaries in interesting ways….
Position Counts | Bye Weeks -> | | | | | | | | |
| 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | TOT |
Flex | | | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | 2 | 8 |
Yes | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 1 | | 6 |
Grand Total | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| WR2 | RB1 | WR1 | TE1 | RB3 | RB2 | WR3 | WR5 | |
----->(WR3) | (WR3) | | WR5 | RB3 | | | | TE3 | |
| | | TE2 | WR6 | | | | | |
Top 5 Flex Pool Byes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
Available RB (of 5) | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | |
Available WR (of 6) | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |
Available TE (of 3) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
Available (Start 5 + Flex) | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | |
Available As Flex | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |
roster size 23
QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/7 - $19
QB - Davis Mills - HOU/6 - $7
QB - Kenny Pickett - PIT/9 - $3
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Leonard Fournette - TB/11 - $27
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL/10 - $21
RB - Elijah Mitchell - SF/9 - $18
RB - Jeff Wilson - SF/9 - $3
WR - Mike Williams - LAC/8 - $21
WR - Hunter Renfrow - LV/6 - $15
WR - DeAndre Hopkins - ARI/13 - $14
WR - Jarvis Landry - NO/14 - $9
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC/8 - $7
WR - Donovan Peoples-Jones - CLE/9 - $5
TE - George Kittle - SF/9 - $18
TE - Gerald Everett - LAC/8 - $8
TE - Taysom Hill - NO/14 - $5
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/9 - $4
PK - Austin Seibert - DET/6 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
TD - New England Patriots - NE/10 - $5
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/14 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/6 - $3
Murphy's Law states that the longer your squad writeup is, the more likely you are to exit the contest early.
So I've got that going for me.
Which is nice.