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Stray Doug

Footballguy
Nothing if not consistent:

Week 1 - 173.45
Week 2 - 174.30
Week 3 - 173.40 (so far... but dang it Kittle, Jeff Wilson, and Saquon likely to mess that up for me and score more in the Sunday/Monday night games)

Could use a bit of life from Allen Robinson going forward, and hopefully Cook's shoulder is not going to dampen his season-long value...
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
Ownership numbers for the Monday Night game

QB - Jones (383), Prescott (278 - OUT), Taylor (7)
Neither QB was common from the start. Less than 4% have Danny, and he is likely QB2 or QB3 on rosters. He won't make a dent in the line.

RB - Barkley (2296), Pollard (815), Elliott (411), Breida (86)
I bet Saquon is on about 40% of the rosters currently under the cut. His score alone will have the biggest impact, and it's not even close.

WR - Gallup (779), Toney (775), Robinson (738 - OUT), Lamb (547), Tolbert (281), Shepard (152), Washington (97 - OUT), Golladay (82)
Those waiting for Gallup's return hopefully aren't in a Rush. I think FBG staff left off a few starters here.

TE - Schultz (1103), Bellinger (217)
At $18, Dalton could make a big difference, but will he play?

K - Gano (859), Maher (271)
Common kickers always have a shot to move the line with a great game.

D - NYG (265), DAL (261)
Both teams rare, and at $7, expect DAL to keep dropping.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
I'm at 172.05, after Courtland Sutton (at 17.70) added 4.30 points to what had been my lowest flex score. My score won't change unless Gano kicks for more than 18.50, which is highly unlikely. Week 4 begins the 20% cuts, so it's going to get a lot tougher.

Note that In week 2, ALL TEAM SIZES except #18 and #19 player teams saw fewer teams eliminated than were eliminated in those same team sizes in week 1. It will be interesting to see if this slight trend toward larger lineups being safer continues. (In week 2, more 18 and 19 player teams were eliminated than in week 1. The exact opposite is true for every other team size).
 

Dacomish

Footballguy
Done at 191.30 with no Dall/NYG players to go. On to week 4 where we start to see how 20% cuts will affect things!!
 
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BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Note that In week 2, ALL TEAM SIZES except #18 and #19 player teams saw fewer teams eliminated than were eliminated in those same team sizes in week 1. It will be interesting to see if this slight trend toward larger lineups being safer continues. (In week 2, more 18 and 19 player teams were eliminated than in week 1. The exact opposite is true for every other team size).

I suspect the trend will continue as a large roster is more likely to have guys like Herbert, Williams, Singletary, Patterson, Stevenson, Pierce, and Gordon who hold 8 of the current top 10 RB slots this week. Cmac, Taylor, Harris, Kamara, Mixon, Jones all had poor weeks.

It looks the same at WR with AJ Brown being the first WR "stud" WR to appear on the list at #12. Kupp, Jefferson, Chase, Hill, Diggs, Samual, Williams, Allen, Evans, Adams all are outside the top 20.

Their salvation will be Allen, Andrews, and Kelce.
 

Stray Doug

Footballguy
On to week 4, but may be doing so with no kickers. Lost Rodrigo Blankenship after his week 1 suckage, and Austin Seibert just missed 2 of 3.
Maybe they’ll pick up Blankenship… 😛
Someone probably will at some point, he struggled week 1 and is coming off his injury last year, but is still a 83% kicker over his (short) pro career, which matches his collegiate 4-season % (where he also went 200-for-200 on XPs)... so unless it turns out that his injury has long-term effects and he can't recover his form there's a good chance he picks up somewhere at some point this season. I'm not saying he's All-Pro, just that there are NFL teams out there with similar-or-worse guys starting, and that he's probably the best available FA K at the moment when someone struggles or gets injured.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
Average points scored per dollar of cap $ through 3 weeks: (I only have a kicker left to go tonight)

Three weeks is not much to go on, but these are my best value players so far...

Greg Zuerlein 3.63
Zay Jones 2.82
Graham Gano 2.18
Derrick Carr 1.98
Kirk Cousins 1.59
ARIZONA Defense 1.56
Amon-Ra St. Brown 1.43
Jahan Dotson 1.37

Biggest disappointements so far:
Leonard Fournette 0.40
A J Dillon 0.49
 
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Saint

Footballguy
Hoping everyone sweating the turk in this thread pulls it out tonight. I have Gano -7, but a strong week from scrub receivers is continuing to work out. Not feeling good with Swift looking like he went out for a bit.

On a side note, sounds like Mac Jones has a severe high ankle sprain and may require potential surgery. 166 owners impacted, so not too widely owned.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
Points scored per dollar of cap $ through 3 weeks: (I only have a kicker left to go tonight)

Three weeks is not much to go on, but these are my best value players so far...

Greg Zuerlein 3.63
Zay Jones 2.82
Graham Gano 2.18
Derrick Carr 1.98
Kirk Cousins 1.59
ARIZONA Defense 1.56
Amon-Ra St. Brown 1.43
Jahan Dotson 1.37

Biggest disappointements so far:
Leonard Fournette 0.40
A J Dillon 0.49
Those numbers seem misleading. For example, Leonard Fournette was 9 times more expensive than Zuerlein. Fournette would have to average around 98 points per week just to keep track with Zuerlein. I think it's better to break them down by position, because I expect K's to rule this list, followed by D's, QB's, TE's, WR's, then RB's.
 

sooted72

Footballguy
Points scored per dollar of cap $ through 3 weeks: (I only have a kicker left to go tonight)

Three weeks is not much to go on, but these are my best value players so far...

Greg Zuerlein 3.63
Zay Jones 2.82
Graham Gano 2.18
Derrick Carr 1.98
Kirk Cousins 1.59
ARIZONA Defense 1.56
Amon-Ra St. Brown 1.43
Jahan Dotson 1.37

Biggest disappointements so far:
Leonard Fournette 0.40
A J Dillon 0.49
Those numbers seem misleading. For example, Leonard Fournette was 9 times more expensive than Zuerlein. Fournette would have to average around 98 points per week just to keep track with Zuerlein. I think it's better to break them down by position, because I expect K's to rule this list, followed by D's, QB's, TE's, WR's, then RB's.
i think its more that cheaper players overall will rule this metric but yeah agree. obviously zay hasnt been twice as valuable as the sun god the year. also the amount of points these players can score has to be factored in. the players who score more and cost more will be much more valuable overall despite a lower pts/$ obviously. its why we prefer to use h-value over straight pts/$ in dfs.
 

rustycolts

Footballguy
164 points so I survived another week. Again 4 players scored over 100 points. Maybe good enough to make it through a couple of weeks of the 20% cuts but not much longer than that. If Allen or Andrews have a bad week then it will be sooner than that.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
@Puppies post made me think - who are the best "values" at each position so far?

QB - Marcus Mariota ($5) has 68.2 points = 13.64 points per dollar
RB - Jeff Wilson ($3) has 27.4 points = 9.13 points per dollar
WR - Curtis Samuel ($5) has 57.2 points = 11.44 points per dollar
TE - Will Dissly ($3) has 31.7 points = 10.57 points per dollar
K - Greg Zuerlein ($3) has 32.7 points = 10.90 points per dollar
D - Jaguars ($3) have 23.0 points = 7.67 points per dollar

Now, let's compare that to the current league leaders at each position:
QB - Lamar Jackson ($19) has 131.75 points = 6.93 points per dollar
RB - Nick Chubb ($24) has 62.9 points = 2.62 points per dollar
WR - Stefon Diggs ($29) has 85.4 points = 2.94 points per dollar
TE - Mark Andrews ($28) has 75.8 points = 2.71 points per dollar
K - Ryan Succop ($6) has 37.3 points = 6.22 points per dollar
D - Buccaneers ($6) have 33.0 points = 5.50 points per dollar
 

Grid71

Footballguy
A bit lower than most here at 148 with Zeke -8.9

Not bad considering half my WR were out Renfrow, Julio and Watkins. Hoping it’s good enough to stay ahead of the cut line. Good luck to our friends sweating the Turk this week.
 

TwinTurbo

Footballguy
Points scored per dollar of cap $ through 3 weeks: (I only have a kicker left to go tonight)

Three weeks is not much to go on, but these are my best value players so far...

Greg Zuerlein 3.63
Zay Jones 2.82
Graham Gano 2.18
Derrick Carr 1.98
Kirk Cousins 1.59
ARIZONA Defense 1.56
Amon-Ra St. Brown 1.43
Jahan Dotson 1.37

Biggest disappointements so far:
Leonard Fournette 0.40
A J Dillon 0.49
Those numbers seem misleading. For example, Leonard Fournette was 9 times more expensive than Zuerlein. Fournette would have to average around 98 points per week just to keep track with Zuerlein. I think it's better to break them down by position, because I expect K's to rule this list, followed by D's, QB's, TE's, WR's, then RB's.
Legatron laughs at your Blankenship math.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
Points scored per dollar of cap $ through 3 weeks: (I only have a kicker left to go tonight)

Three weeks is not much to go on, but these are my best value players so far...

Greg Zuerlein 3.63
Zay Jones 2.82
Graham Gano 2.18
Derrick Carr 1.98
Kirk Cousins 1.59
ARIZONA Defense 1.56
Amon-Ra St. Brown 1.43
Jahan Dotson 1.37

Biggest disappointements so far:
Leonard Fournette 0.40
A J Dillon 0.49
Those numbers seem misleading. For example, Leonard Fournette was 9 times more expensive than Zuerlein. Fournette would have to average around 98 points per week just to keep track with Zuerlein. I think it's better to break them down by position, because I expect K's to rule this list, followed by D's, QB's, TE's, WR's, then RB's.
Valid point, and I agree with you completely. That's why I only listed skill players in bold print in the original post. They are really the majority of the contest. Kickers and Defense seldom contribute as much to the total score, although you have to love what Gano did last week and Zeurlein this week.

I understand that running backs are always the most expensive players in terms of points produced per dollar, and I think I posted something to that effect before the contest started. That's why I normally go lean on running backs and spend more on WR and TE, where you get more bang for the buck, and are likely to fill flex spots cheaper than with additional running backs.

But that said, I expected more from Fournette. I pictured him getting more snaps and more short catches out of the backfield since Gronk retired and wasn't replaced by a stud TE, and he's not competing for carries with Robert Jones. Those thoughts led to my decision to make him my highest priced RB. I do understand that he was a little nicked up the last 2 weeks, so hopefully it gets better. It needs to if I have any hope of continuing to survive.

A J Dillon did well in week 1 but hasn't gotten anywhere near the same amount of touches in weeks 2 or 3. Feeling a little buyer's remorse so far.

And, YES, I forgot about Blankenship when I mentioned biggest disappointments...

The bottom of my lineup carried me this week. 3 players plus my kicker ($26 total) produced 78.50 points.

Statistical Trivia: If this week had started the 20% cuts, the "tentative' cut line would be at 137.10 right now, vs 127.10 currently.
 
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-OZ-

Footballguy
@Joe Bryant - scratch me off. I’m pretty far from the same.

This entry is still alive :excited:


Week 1​

QB Trey Lance - $150.00
QB Derek Carr - $130.00
QB Kenny Pickett - $30.00
RB Aaron Jones - $270.00
RB Travis Etienne - $220.00
RB Josh Jacobs - $190.00
RB Dameon Pierce - $100.00
RB Tyler Allgeier - $70.00
WR Justin Jefferson - $350.00
WR Courtland Sutton - $190.00
WR Rashod Bateman - $160.00
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster - $150.00
TE George Kittle - $180.00
TE Austin Hooper - $80.00
TE Mo Alie-Cox - $60.00
PK Cade York - $40.00
PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $30.00
PK Austin Seibert - $30.00
TD San Francisco 49ers - $40.00
TD Detroit Lions - $30.00
TOTAL0.00
CUT LINE0.00

Likely regrets -
1. not taking Doubs. I had him in for a long time, decided to go with picket and spend another dollar on a defense and kicker.
2. Only rolling 4 WR. but I really do like these 4 and they don’t share a bye.
3. Going with Lance and Pickett instead of hurts or Russell. Seems like added risk without added reward.
4. Allgeier is probably wasted money.
5. Only two defenses - could have added a $3 defense instead of Pickett.

Reasons for the decisions I will regret.
1. I wanted the Lance / kittle stack. Could pay off big.
2. I expect Pickett to be starting by mid season. I don’t know if he’ll be good, but hopefully he starts by Carr’s bye and is able to lock in a higher floor. Could very easily be a wasted $3.
3. No other RB seemed to be as likely to score points as a potential difference maker at around $7.
4. The byes at WR line up well. This may be my favorite group and injuries can knock us out anyway.
Yep. Rolling with Lance + picket instead of hurts was clearly a mistake. Doubs might have saved me, but I’m out :bye:
Good luck y’all!
 

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
So far 18 of my 25 players have been used at least once. Goff, Z White, Pickens, Berrios, Otton, Seibert and Minnesota are the slackers. $216 out of $250 used. The 4 guys that have been used 3 times are all in my 6 most expensive players which helps imo.
So far so good.
-QG
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
I'll be the first...

QB - Cousins & Carr - Neither one has hit 30 yet, but combined they have averaged 26.4 with a low of 25.5 and a high of 27.85. I just want consistency here.
RB - Barkley, Edmonds, Pierce, Z White, Wilson, Moss - I'm asking alot from Saquon here. Actually, my team will live or die with him.
WR - Sutton, St. Brown, Kirk, Smith-Schuster - Planned on 2 decent scores each week and maybe a flex, and they haven't disappointed.
TE - Kelce, Andrews, Pitts - Nice to see Pitts getting involved. I am 1 of 8 live teams with this trio (we lost 1 in week 1).
K - Seibert & Blankenship - Fingers crossed that Seibert doesn't get "das boot". Perhaps give up RB Moss for Gano?
D - ARI & MIN - I'm OK with this duo.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Currently sitting at 121 with Daniel Jones (+8), Barkley (+8.9) and Toney. Not looking good for me

You're a mortal lock to advance. Care to wager $10 on the outcome?
Just catching up in here. The 2nd half has to be better than the 1st half, right? Right?

Cut was 131 so Barkley alone put you over. Jones had you clearing the bar by double digits and put you clear of the cut by 1700 people without even scoring a TD.

If you gave me the option of taking your "not looking good" position every remaining cut week I'd take that deal in a heartbeat right now.

Congrats and see you next week.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
Currently sitting at 121 with Daniel Jones (+8), Barkley (+8.9) and Toney. Not looking good for me

You're a mortal lock to advance. Care to wager $10 on the outcome?
Just catching up in here. The 2nd half has to be better than the 1st half, right? Right?

Cut was 131 so Barkley alone put you over. Jones had you clearing the bar by double digits and put you clear of the cut by 1700 people without even scoring a TD.

If you gave me the option of taking your "not looking good" position every remaining cut week I'd take that deal in a heartbeat right now.

Congrats and see you next week.
I prefer to play it the other way and say I will advance every week. I haven't come close to the cut, and week 4 will be no different. There's no such thing as jinxes!
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Currently sitting at 121 with Daniel Jones (+8), Barkley (+8.9) and Toney. Not looking good for me

You're a mortal lock to advance. Care to wager $10 on the outcome?
Just catching up in here. The 2nd half has to be better than the 1st half, right? Right?

Cut was 131 so Barkley alone put you over. Jones had you clearing the bar by double digits and put you clear of the cut by 1700 people without even scoring a TD.

If you gave me the option of taking your "not looking good" position every remaining cut week I'd take that deal in a heartbeat right now.

Congrats and see you next week.
I prefer to play it the other way and say I will advance every week. I haven't come close to the cut, and week 4 will be no different. There's no such thing as jinxes!

Alright tough guy, if you are going to give the middle finger salute to @Contest Turk why don't you pants him at the same time.
 

jon007

Footballguy
@TheWinz
Out of curiosity. Does the cut line progressively increase as the season rolls on or is it simply week to week?

I ask because before I submitted my final roster, I noticed I had numerous week 9 byes that put me at around $72 of cap off on a bye. That freaked me out when I saw that because it was also many of my heavy hitters. When I began to adjust for byes I thought about front loading my byes with a max of $30-$40 of cap off on any given week. After week 9 my team is rolling with almost 100% strength. My thought was if I survive past week 9, my team will be a legit contender.

I haven't been keeping up with my average points but if I had to guess my team is averaging about 170 points a week.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
Week 3 Statistical Trivia....

The two team sizes hit the hardest in week 3 were 18 and 19, with weekly survival rates of 84.73% and 89.47% respectively.
The two team sizes that fared the best in week 3 were
27 and 28 with survival rates of 98.09% and 97.89% respectively.
The two team sizes with the
lowest overall survival rate through 3 weeks are 29 and 30, with survival rates of 61.25% and 68.99% respectively.
The two team sizes with the
HIGHEST overall survival rate through 3 weeks are 24 and 27, with survival rates of 79.57% and 78.17% respectively.

The two team sizes with the worst overall change in survival rate from week 2 to week 3 are
18 and 19, dropping 12.63% and 8.58% respectively.
The two team sizes with the lowest drop in overall survival rate from week 2 to week 3 are
27 and 28, dropping only 1.52% and 1.63% overall.

The only team size to rank in the top 5 in terms of weekly survival rate for all 3 weeks, is team size 20.

If week 3 had been a 20% cut week, the cut line would have been 142.55,
 
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Puppies

Footballguy
@TheWinz
Out of curiosity. Does the cut line progressively increase as the season rolls on or is it simply week to week?

I ask because before I submitted my final roster, I noticed I had numerous week 9 byes that put me at around $72 of cap off on a bye. That freaked me out when I saw that because it was also many of my heavy hitters. When I began to adjust for byes I thought about front loading my byes with a max of $30-$40 of cap off on any given week. After week 9 my team is rolling with almost 100% strength. My thought was if I survive past week 9, my team will be a legit contender.

I haven't been keeping up with my average points but if I had to guess my team is averaging about 170 points a week.
My approach was to view it in terms of projected points on bye each week (rather than cap dollars on bye). I arranged my bye weeks so that the percentage of my total projected points that were on bye in any given week, were roughly equal or less than the percentage of NFL teams on bye in those same weeks. For example, weeks 9 and 14 have 6 NFL teams on bye, so you may be able to get away with having slighly more players idle in those same weeks, because with more teams on bye the cut line might tend to be lower. Contrast that with week 8, when only 2 NFL teams have a bye. That's a good week to not have a lot of players sitting out.

Since you have to go over the team bye percentage somewhere, I did it in weeks 6 and 7, because those weeks have a lower cut percentage (20%) in the contest. The cut percentage jumps to 30% starting in week 8. Overall, it would be statitstically wise to front load bye weeks as much as possible due to the simple fact that the cut percentage progressively increases during the course of hte contest. But obvious corners have to be cut because otherwise you would be forced to not even consider some of the players you wanted to have on your roster.

In weeks 6 and 7, I have 21.0% and 18.3% of my projected points on bye, and there are 12.5% of the NFL teams on bye those weeks. So weeks 6 and 7 are critical for me. If I am able to survive those weeks, I believe my chances to survive get better.
 
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Saint

Footballguy
Updating the Team numbers.
  • QB - Jackson (1434 – 3X, 90.02% survival), Goff (609, 77.98% survival). Pickett (863, 72.40% survival).
  • RB - Swift (647 – 2X, 75.67% survival), Williams (1056 – 1X, 73.90% survival), Pierce (5580 – 1X, 76.64% survival), Mostert (758, 71.92% survival), B. Robinson (665, 69.34% survival), Wilson (1381 – 2X, 78.78% survival).
  • WR - Sutton (3274 – 3X, 76.33% survival), Kirk (1179 – 3X, 88.78% survival), Burks (225, 70.53% survival), Palmer (1171 – 1X, 79.44% survival), Pickens (2899, 74.11% survival), Doubs (1938 – 2X, 76.84% survival), W. Robinson (701, 74.02% survival).
  • TE - Andrews (689 – 3X, 87.44% survival), Goedert (1552 – 2X, 82.25% survival), Engram (640 – 1X, 78.05% survival).
  • K - Blankenship (4240 – 1X, 74.71% survival rate), Seibert (921, 79.06% survival), Gano (816 – 2X, 80.47% survival).
  • D – KC (339 – 3X, 74.34% survival), DET (484, 74.12% survival).
I can't get behind the value per dollar as there are so many factors that skew that. I think what may be more meaningful is survivability. So for example, we have had three weeks of cuts, or approximately 30% of the pool. Therefore any player with survivability greater than 70% is a good investment. So applying that logic, Lamar Jackson has a survivability of greater than 90%. That's phenomenal through three weeks. He is single handedly saving teams. The next "value" play as I see it is Kirk with an 88.78% survivability, followed closely by Mark Andrews and Goedert. Honorable mention to Palmer who is just below 80%.

So looking at my rooster, I'm fairly happy that most guys are above 70% with the only one below being Robinson, which makes sense since he hasn't seen the field yet. Ones that are close to 70% are probably your "value" players. So Pickett for example, who hasn't counted for anyone is still slightly above 70%, Now for more expensive guys at the 70% mark, these would be guys underperforming. Looking at you Javonte Williams and Treylon Burks. Step it up. :boxing:
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
@TheWinz
Out of curiosity. Does the cut line progressively increase as the season rolls on or is it simply week to week?

I ask because before I submitted my final roster, I noticed I had numerous week 9 byes that put me at around $72 of cap off on a bye. That freaked me out when I saw that because it was also many of my heavy hitters. When I began to adjust for byes I thought about front loading my byes with a max of $30-$40 of cap off on any given week. After week 9 my team is rolling with almost 100% strength. My thought was if I survive past week 9, my team will be a legit contender.

I haven't been keeping up with my average points but if I had to guess my team is averaging about 170 points a week.
Typically, the cut line increases as the weeks go on. Each year (and week) is different, but the cuts seem to start around 120 and work towards a high of 170's before the finals. But, it also has a ton to do with how well the most common players do, and when they are on bye. For example, last year in week 4, the cut was 143, then it skyrocketed to 178, then came back down to 146. Why? Because common players blew up in week 5. James Robinson was owned by 44% from the start, and went for 150 and a TD.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
@TheWinz
Out of curiosity. Does the cut line progressively increase as the season rolls on or is it simply week to week?

I ask because before I submitted my final roster, I noticed I had numerous week 9 byes that put me at around $72 of cap off on a bye. That freaked me out when I saw that because it was also many of my heavy hitters. When I began to adjust for byes I thought about front loading my byes with a max of $30-$40 of cap off on any given week. After week 9 my team is rolling with almost 100% strength. My thought was if I survive past week 9, my team will be a legit contender.

I haven't been keeping up with my average points but if I had to guess my team is averaging about 170 points a week.
Typically, the cut line increases as the weeks go on. Each year (and week) is different, but the cuts seem to start around 120 and work towards a high of 170's before the finals. But, it also has a ton to do with how well the most common players do, and when they are on bye. For example, last year in week 4, the cut was 143, then it skyrocketed to 178, then came back down to 146. Why? Because common players blew up in week 5. James Robinson was owned by 44% from the start, and went for 150 and a TD.

Also, keep in mind the cut lines have been lower than last year so far, because of the difference in the cut line percentages in last year's rules vs this year. Last year there were cut lines that amounted to 25% per week from the very beginning up until the final week, when it went from 311 teams to 176 (which works out to about 43%). All things considered, the cuts are easier this year up until week 13 and 14, when the cut percentage goes to 40%. This is a good system because fewer teams are eliminated in early weeks this year because of the graduated cut percentages. This amounts to better participation by more teams far deeper into the contest.

Just to compare, this year after 3 weeks only 3,292 teams have been eliminated out of 12,254 or 26.9%. Last year after 3 weeks 4,120 teams out of 9,759 had been eliminated or 42.2%
 
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