dbc925
Footballguy
Everything just kind of fell into place this week. The Goff/Hockenson stack was money, Allie-Cox may not hit that total for the rest of the season combined, and Boswell plus the Niners outkicked their coverage by a bunch.
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Everything just kind of fell into place this week. The Goff/Hockenson stack was money, Allie-Cox may not hit that total for the rest of the season combined, and Boswell plus the Niners outkicked their coverage by a bunch.
dbc925
Footballguy
Quarter pole usage report:
Week 4
QB Lamar Jackson - $19 Used 3 times. No surprise. Definitely glad I went Jackson/Goff instead of the chalk Cousins/Carr.
QB Jared Goff - $9 Used 1 time, but doing well enough to allow me to feel fairly good about Baltimore's bye week, where he faces the Bears.
QB Marcus Mariota - $5 Unused. Took a shot.
QB Desmond Ridder - $4 Unused. Rolled the dice.
RB Dalvin Cook - $29 Used three times, despite underperforming in his role.
RB Chase Edmonds - $14 Used 2 times. Looking to be on his way out. Ugh. Bad investment.
RB Dameon Pierce - $10 Used 3 times. Everybody's sweetheart. Can't complain.
RB Jerick McKinnon - $8 Used 1 time. Not expecting a lot here for my eight bucks.
RB Brian Robinson - $7 Obviously unused. Signs point to an earlier than expected return, which should make this a good invest-and-wait proposition.
RB Zamir White - $6 Unused, and may stay that way for the season.
WR D.J. Moore - $23 - Used 1 time. Talk about a piss-poor ROI.
WR Courtland Sutton - $19 Used 4 times, and the only guy on my roster that has been.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster - $15 Used 1 time because Andy Reid hates me.
WR Isaiah McKenzie - $6 Used 3 times. A cheap piece of a high-powered offense.
WR George Pickens - $6 Used 1 time. I'm not a huge Kenny Pickett fan, but if he keeps using Pickens like he did Sunday, I'll take it.
WR Romeo Doubs - $5 Used 2 times. Looking more and more like a really really cheap WR1.
TE T.J. Hockenson - $17 Used 3 times. TEs are good to have.
TE Dallas Goedert - $15 Used 3 times. See above.
TE Mo Alie-Cox - $6 Used 1 time. Absolutely out of his mind this past week.
TE Tommy Tremble - $5 Unused. Horrible offense, horrible quarterback.
PK Chris Boswell - $4 Used 3 times. That 59 yarder into the tough end of the stadium was pretty amazing.
PK Randy Bullock - $4 Used 1 time. Meh.
PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $3 Obviously unused. Blecch.
TD San Francisco 49ers - $4 Used 1 time, scored a TD
TD Baltimore Ravens - $4 Used 2 times, with 11 points each time.
TD Minnesota Vikings - $3 Used 1 time, and almost got me cut in week 1.
Week 4
QB Lamar Jackson - $19 Used 3 times. No surprise. Definitely glad I went Jackson/Goff instead of the chalk Cousins/Carr.
QB Jared Goff - $9 Used 1 time, but doing well enough to allow me to feel fairly good about Baltimore's bye week, where he faces the Bears.
QB Marcus Mariota - $5 Unused. Took a shot.
QB Desmond Ridder - $4 Unused. Rolled the dice.
RB Dalvin Cook - $29 Used three times, despite underperforming in his role.
RB Chase Edmonds - $14 Used 2 times. Looking to be on his way out. Ugh. Bad investment.
RB Dameon Pierce - $10 Used 3 times. Everybody's sweetheart. Can't complain.
RB Jerick McKinnon - $8 Used 1 time. Not expecting a lot here for my eight bucks.
RB Brian Robinson - $7 Obviously unused. Signs point to an earlier than expected return, which should make this a good invest-and-wait proposition.
RB Zamir White - $6 Unused, and may stay that way for the season.
WR D.J. Moore - $23 - Used 1 time. Talk about a piss-poor ROI.
WR Courtland Sutton - $19 Used 4 times, and the only guy on my roster that has been.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster - $15 Used 1 time because Andy Reid hates me.
WR Isaiah McKenzie - $6 Used 3 times. A cheap piece of a high-powered offense.
WR George Pickens - $6 Used 1 time. I'm not a huge Kenny Pickett fan, but if he keeps using Pickens like he did Sunday, I'll take it.
WR Romeo Doubs - $5 Used 2 times. Looking more and more like a really really cheap WR1.
TE T.J. Hockenson - $17 Used 3 times. TEs are good to have.
TE Dallas Goedert - $15 Used 3 times. See above.
TE Mo Alie-Cox - $6 Used 1 time. Absolutely out of his mind this past week.
TE Tommy Tremble - $5 Unused. Horrible offense, horrible quarterback.
PK Chris Boswell - $4 Used 3 times. That 59 yarder into the tough end of the stadium was pretty amazing.
PK Randy Bullock - $4 Used 1 time. Meh.
PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $3 Obviously unused. Blecch.
TD San Francisco 49ers - $4 Used 1 time, scored a TD
TD Baltimore Ravens - $4 Used 2 times, with 11 points each time.
TD Minnesota Vikings - $3 Used 1 time, and almost got me cut in week 1.
Saint
Footballguy
What the Turk giveth, the Turk taketh away.
Week 4 saw the elimination of three of the top 5 teams from Week 3 (Entries 106962, 101412, and 112248). We also lost one of our top 5 from Week 1 (Entry 107890). The contest is a fickle beast.
Meanwhile, congrats to our new Weekly Top 5 cotestants (Raidermania, Leemanhack, 102256, 108448, 108280).
Week 4 saw the elimination of three of the top 5 teams from Week 3 (Entries 106962, 101412, and 112248). We also lost one of our top 5 from Week 1 (Entry 107890). The contest is a fickle beast.
Meanwhile, congrats to our new Weekly Top 5 cotestants (Raidermania, Leemanhack, 102256, 108448, 108280).
Saint
Footballguy
My team is still alive, but concerned it is only a matter of time with the injury bugs taking down some of the key players. I liked your post style @dbc925, so I am stealing shamelessly.
QB Lamar Jackson - $19 Used 3X, 67.73% survival, 1079 alive. Huge cut in the Lamar contestants as he dropped from a 90% survival to a 67% survival.
QB Jared Goff - $9 Used 1X, 74.26% survival, 580 alive. Has been consistent each week. Right now Lions are one of the highest scoring teams
QB Kenny Picket - $3 Unused, 60.99% survival, 727 alive. Welcome to the NFL and a chance to count in the lineup!
** Injured ** RB D'Andre Swift - $29 Used 2X, 50.64% survival, 433 alive. Please come back soon!!!!
RB Dameon Pierce - $10 Used 2X, 66.74% survival, 4859 alive. He’ll help keep me afloat until Swift gets back.
RB Raheem Mostert - $8 Used 1X, 59.68% survival, 629 alive. Seems to be taking over the backfield. Need some TDs!
** Injured ** RB Brian Robinson - $7 Unused, 54.64% survival, 524 alive. Looks like he is coming back! Just in time with Javonte going down.
RB Jeff Wilson - $3 Used 3X, 69.94% survival, 1226 alive. Certainly the MVP of the RB squad right now.
WR Courtland Sutton - $19 Used 4X, 63.32% survival, 2716 alive. The only guy looking good in Denver right now.
WR Christian Kirk - $16 Used 3X, 66.19% survival, 879 alive. Came down to earth this past week, but should bounce back. The Slay factor.
** Injured ** WR Treylon Burks - $12 Unused, 58.39% survival, 167 alive. Now dealing with Turf Toe and out for a bit. Hasn’t cracked the lineup yet.
WR Josh Palmer - $6 Used 1X, 67.03% survival, 988 alive. Having a piece of the LAC offense for cheap works out. I expect a few more hits.
WR George Pickens - $6 Used 1X, 65.59% survival, 2566 alive. Welcome to the lineup, and now the Pickett/Pickens stack is in play.
WR Romeo Doubs - $5 Used 3X, 67.05% survival, 1691 alive. Good investment and Rogers trusts him.
** Injured ** WR WanDale Robinson - $5 Unused, 62.30% survival, 590 alive. Should be coming back soon and the NYG needs all the help they can get.
TE Mark Andrews - $28 Used 3X, 61.42% survival, 484 alive. Expensive Jackson/Andrews stack but has worked well every week except last. Let’s bring it back. 112 of us left.
TE Dallas Goedert - $15 Used 3X, 70.43% survival, 1329 alive. TEs on high power offenses tend to do well.
TE Evan Engram - $9 Used 1X, 60.24% survival, 494 alive. Lawrence needs to remember his TE more. Let’s get it on!
** Cut ** PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $3 Used 1X, 61.02% survival, 3463 alive. Will he find a team?
** Injured ** PK Austin Seibert - $3 Unused, 61.20% survival, 713 alive. Please come back from injury. The Lions can’t kick XP.
PK Graham Gano - $3 Used 3X, 69.03% survival, 700 alive. Right now keeping my team on life support.
TD Kansas City Chiefs - $4 Used 4X, 57.24% survival, 261 alive. Used every week, but not for many points. F’ugly.
TD Detroit Lions - $3 Unused, 60.64% survival, 396 alive. Can’t stop jack.
Dead Money:
RB Javonte Williams - $25 Used 1X, 54.86% survival, 784 alive. Done for the season with a terrible injury. Get well soon.
QB Lamar Jackson - $19 Used 3X, 67.73% survival, 1079 alive. Huge cut in the Lamar contestants as he dropped from a 90% survival to a 67% survival.
QB Jared Goff - $9 Used 1X, 74.26% survival, 580 alive. Has been consistent each week. Right now Lions are one of the highest scoring teams
QB Kenny Picket - $3 Unused, 60.99% survival, 727 alive. Welcome to the NFL and a chance to count in the lineup!
** Injured ** RB D'Andre Swift - $29 Used 2X, 50.64% survival, 433 alive. Please come back soon!!!!
RB Dameon Pierce - $10 Used 2X, 66.74% survival, 4859 alive. He’ll help keep me afloat until Swift gets back.
RB Raheem Mostert - $8 Used 1X, 59.68% survival, 629 alive. Seems to be taking over the backfield. Need some TDs!
** Injured ** RB Brian Robinson - $7 Unused, 54.64% survival, 524 alive. Looks like he is coming back! Just in time with Javonte going down.
RB Jeff Wilson - $3 Used 3X, 69.94% survival, 1226 alive. Certainly the MVP of the RB squad right now.
WR Courtland Sutton - $19 Used 4X, 63.32% survival, 2716 alive. The only guy looking good in Denver right now.
WR Christian Kirk - $16 Used 3X, 66.19% survival, 879 alive. Came down to earth this past week, but should bounce back. The Slay factor.
** Injured ** WR Treylon Burks - $12 Unused, 58.39% survival, 167 alive. Now dealing with Turf Toe and out for a bit. Hasn’t cracked the lineup yet.
WR Josh Palmer - $6 Used 1X, 67.03% survival, 988 alive. Having a piece of the LAC offense for cheap works out. I expect a few more hits.
WR George Pickens - $6 Used 1X, 65.59% survival, 2566 alive. Welcome to the lineup, and now the Pickett/Pickens stack is in play.
WR Romeo Doubs - $5 Used 3X, 67.05% survival, 1691 alive. Good investment and Rogers trusts him.
** Injured ** WR WanDale Robinson - $5 Unused, 62.30% survival, 590 alive. Should be coming back soon and the NYG needs all the help they can get.
TE Mark Andrews - $28 Used 3X, 61.42% survival, 484 alive. Expensive Jackson/Andrews stack but has worked well every week except last. Let’s bring it back. 112 of us left.
TE Dallas Goedert - $15 Used 3X, 70.43% survival, 1329 alive. TEs on high power offenses tend to do well.
TE Evan Engram - $9 Used 1X, 60.24% survival, 494 alive. Lawrence needs to remember his TE more. Let’s get it on!
** Cut ** PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $3 Used 1X, 61.02% survival, 3463 alive. Will he find a team?
** Injured ** PK Austin Seibert - $3 Unused, 61.20% survival, 713 alive. Please come back from injury. The Lions can’t kick XP.
PK Graham Gano - $3 Used 3X, 69.03% survival, 700 alive. Right now keeping my team on life support.
TD Kansas City Chiefs - $4 Used 4X, 57.24% survival, 261 alive. Used every week, but not for many points. F’ugly.
TD Detroit Lions - $3 Unused, 60.64% survival, 396 alive. Can’t stop jack.
Dead Money:
RB Javonte Williams - $25 Used 1X, 54.86% survival, 784 alive. Done for the season with a terrible injury. Get well soon.
Deamon
Footballguy
I don't wanna talk about it.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Except it looks like ARob and Wilson are both in the -8 range and the 49ers are -6 for him. Needing to climb over 700 other entries is not optimal, but if he can get a 20 point game or so from any one of them (or two 15 point games), it might be enough I'm saying there's a chance.7.2 points below the unofficial cut line of 136.05. Jeff Wilson, ARob, D/ST 49'ers remaining...
...my brain is kinda fried this AM. Outside of rooting for my guys to crush it (49'ers D demolishes Rams O, but leaves ARob virtually uncovered, allowing Stafford to pepper him drive after drive. Meanwhile, on offense, the 9'ers relentlessly pound the Rams D with a terminal overdose of Wilson, who miraculously survives a utilization rate well past his injury threshold), do I have any chance of avoiding?
If it's truly those remaining counting immediately than you are 80-90% likely to advance.
145.45: 6735/7152 ... 2 big plays (Wilson TD run, Stafford pick-6) got me past the cut line. Whew, that was close. Get out of jail free card close.
Had forgotten that 'sweat the cut line' feeling.
Matt Ryan: 28.40 ... the way he's started the Season, I'll be shocked if that's not an outlier, but it's what I hoped for when I tacked him on to the very common Cousins/Carr pairing as insurance. $10 investment came through in Week 4!
1 more week until the Bye Weeks kick in. Marching on!
Puppies
Footballguy
Has anyone ranked the $3 kickers or $3 defenses through the first 4 weeks?
rustycolts
Footballguy
So I'm averaging a little over 160 a game. That should get me to about week 7 after that I'll need some miracles.
MikesVikes
Footballguy
Week four is the largest Blood Bath with 1787 lost. Week Five will be the second with 1430. 26% gone these two weeks.
Wow!
I've been pretty steady week to week - 179/184/179/173 - thinking I would likely make it to week 7 or 8. Not how it works! Any given Sunday, right?
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tenor.com
had it the whole way
i think this is an excellent team. my concern would be you really have no stacks to help win the playoffs. its just so hard to win a best ball tournament with a bunch of one-offs. so you get there and your qbs go off but you lose to the team with diggs/sun god. its like trying to win a dfs tournament with your cash lineup. its not impossible ofc, but you need to get a LOT more things correct to do so.
also, and i swear this isnt hindsight at all, but watkins over doubs feels pretty wrong. on one hand youve got the ascending rookie with superstar potential vs the aging vet who gets hurt every year. obviously this story isnt written yet and tbf after week 2 it looked like the watkins side was the winner, but still i think this was a pretty clear miss regardless of how it ends up playing out.
i guess what im saying is that i would have liked to see you take on maybe just a little more risk in terms of upside and correlation. still think this is an excellent rooster that id def trade for my team.
another awesome rooster imo. your qb group gives me a boner lol...
i think mckinnon was an excellent pick. at the very least we knew he'd have the 3rd down/long distance role on a top-3ish offense coming into the season, leading to at least a few spot starts. we also saw him given 17 touches a game in the playoffs for this same kc team last season, so we also know that theres a possibility they use him as their feature back again somewhere down the road. we also knew coming in that his competition for touches in the kc backfield was rojo, who they clearly dont care for, a 7th round rookie kick returner, and ceh, whos done nothing but underperform expectations during his entire nfl career so far. the same ceh they played jet over down the stretch last year.
so imo $8 is a fair price for just what we thought his role was coming into the season and then you factor in huge tournament-winning contingent upside, i thought he was a very solid choice. more so for teams like mine that have mahomes, but just in general too.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Oh yeah, brain fart
Hey everyone! This is my first time ever competing in this contest, and I'm really enjoying it. I've done free daily games before on Yahoo, but that's about it outside of regular league play. Spent a fair bit of time looking at the scoring, and re-did my entry several times before submitting as final. Week 4, I had my best finish of any contest I've ever participated in (12th overall!) so I just had to come on here and celebrate, haha!
Here's my team. Regretting Travis Etienne, Sammy Watkins and Blankenship, but other than that I think I'm looking alright!
Here's my team. Regretting Travis Etienne, Sammy Watkins and Blankenship, but other than that I think I'm looking alright!
Week 4
| QB Kirk Cousins - $14 | 18.65 |
| QB Jared Goff - $9 | 42.00 |
| RB Travis Etienne - $22 | 3.20 |
| RB Breece Hall - $21 | 14.80 |
| RB Miles Sanders - $17 | 28.60 |
| RB Dameon Pierce - $10 | 22.90 |
| RB Alexander Mattison - $9 | 8.30 |
| WR Courtland Sutton - $19 | 16.20 |
| WR Darnell Mooney - $17 | 13.40 |
| WR Hunter Renfrow - $15 | 0.00 |
| WR JuJu Smith-Schuster - $15 | 9.60 |
| WR Corey Davis - $7 | 18.40 |
| WR Sammy Watkins - $4 | 0.00 |
| TE Travis Kelce - $30 | 28.70 |
| TE Zach Ertz - $15 | 19.70 |
| TE Mo Alie-Cox - $6 | 29.50 |
| PK Greg Zuerlein - $3 | 6.80 |
| PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $3 | 0.00 |
| PK Graham Gano - $3 | 10.70 |
| TD Washington Commanders - $4 | 1.00 |
| TD Chicago Bears - $3 | 5.00 |
| TD Seattle Seahawks - $3 | 11.00 |
| TOTAL | 227.70 |
| CUT LINE | 142.00 |
Galileo
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
At the start of week 5, here are the $3 kickers:
Gano - K5
Zuerlein - K8
Fairbairn - K12
Seibert - K24
Santos - K27
Blankenship - K28
Santoso - K31 (only ranked him ahead of Gonzalez because he has a chance of playing)
Gonzalez - K32
And here are the $3 defenses:
JAC - D5
SEA - D8
ATL - D10
CAR - D11
HOU - D13
ARI - 16
TEN - 17
NYJ - 18
CHI - D21
MIN - D23
NYG - D25
DET - D30
Puppies
Footballguy
Week 4 Statistical Trivia and other observations ...
Speaking of irony....
The team size with the highest overall survival rate through weeks 1 and 2 was team size 18
The team size with the lowest overall survival rate through weeks 1 and 2 was team size 29.
The team size with the smallest drop in survival rate between week 3 and 4 was team size 29, after being the worst overall team size in weeks 1 and 2.
The team size with the worst drop in survival rate from week 3 to week 4 is team size 18, after having the highest survival rate through the first 2 weeks, dropping 17.22 points in week 4 alone. The overall leader through 2 weeks at 83.34% survival rate, is now last with only 53.49% survival rate.
Smaller roster teams get clobbered proportionately higher when studs start dropping to injuries.
The team size with the hightest overall survival through 4 weeks is team size 24, having led in both week 3 and 4.
The median score in weeks 1 and 2 was 150.95 and 151.05 respectively, a difference of only 0.10 points.
The median score in weeks 3 and 4 was 160.05 and 160.20 respectively, a difference of only 0.15 points.
The cut line moved the same mount during the Monday night game in both weeks 3 and 4, going up by exactly 5.95 points.
The Monday night cut line moved 12.20 in week 1, and 20.10 in week 2 (with 2 Monday night games).
Since we like to refer to cut line as the "Turk" since apparently he's the guy who sets up the contest, I thought it would be interesting to report that The Turk's Subscriber Contest team put up scores of 141.55, 146.30, 157.90, and 175.75 in the first 4 weeks of the contest. So now just for fun, you can measure your team's progress against both the actual "Turk" as well as cut line.
Good Luck to everyone in week 5!
Speaking of irony....
The team size with the highest overall survival rate through weeks 1 and 2 was team size 18
The team size with the lowest overall survival rate through weeks 1 and 2 was team size 29.
The team size with the smallest drop in survival rate between week 3 and 4 was team size 29, after being the worst overall team size in weeks 1 and 2.
The team size with the worst drop in survival rate from week 3 to week 4 is team size 18, after having the highest survival rate through the first 2 weeks, dropping 17.22 points in week 4 alone. The overall leader through 2 weeks at 83.34% survival rate, is now last with only 53.49% survival rate.
Smaller roster teams get clobbered proportionately higher when studs start dropping to injuries.
The team size with the hightest overall survival through 4 weeks is team size 24, having led in both week 3 and 4.
The median score in weeks 1 and 2 was 150.95 and 151.05 respectively, a difference of only 0.10 points.
The median score in weeks 3 and 4 was 160.05 and 160.20 respectively, a difference of only 0.15 points.
The cut line moved the same mount during the Monday night game in both weeks 3 and 4, going up by exactly 5.95 points.
The Monday night cut line moved 12.20 in week 1, and 20.10 in week 2 (with 2 Monday night games).
Since we like to refer to cut line as the "Turk" since apparently he's the guy who sets up the contest, I thought it would be interesting to report that The Turk's Subscriber Contest team put up scores of 141.55, 146.30, 157.90, and 175.75 in the first 4 weeks of the contest. So now just for fun, you can measure your team's progress against both the actual "Turk" as well as cut line.
Good Luck to everyone in week 5!
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TheWinz
Footballguy
I found a team still alive with only Trey Lance at QB.
Saint
Footballguy
That’s impressive!
jon007
Footballguy
As a 24-player roster, I approve of this message. Interesting I scored roughly 160 this week with 5 roster spots contributing zero points.Week 4 Statistical Trivia and other observations ...
Speaking of irony....
The team size with the highest overall survival rate through weeks 1 and 2 was team size 18
The team size with the lowest overall survival rate through weeks 1 and 2 was team size 29.
The team size with the smallest drop in survival rate between week 3 and 4 was team size 29, after being the worst overall team size in weeks 1 and 2.
The team size with the worst drop in survival rate from week 3 to week 4 is team size 18, after having the highest survival rate through the first 2 weeks, dropping 17.22 points in week 4 alone. The overall leader through 2 weeks at 83.34% survival rate, is now last with only 53.49% survival rate.
Smaller roster teams get clobbered proportionately higher when studs start dropping to injuries.
The team size with the hightest overall survival through 4 weeks is team size 24, having led in both week 3 and 4.
The median score in weeks 1 and 2 was 150.95 and 151.05 respectively, a difference of only 0.10 points.
The median score in weeks 3 and 4 was 160.05 and 160.20 respectively, a difference of only 0.15 points.
The cut line moved the same mount during the Monday night game in both weeks 3 and 4, going up by exactly 5.95 points.
The Monday night cut line moved 12.20 in week 1, and 20.10 in week 2 (with 2 Monday night games).
Since we like to refer to cut line as the "Turk" since apparently he's the guy who sets up the contest, I thought it would be interesting to report that The Turk's Subscriber Contest team put up scores of 141.55, 146.30, 157.90, and 175.75 in the first 4 weeks of the contest. So now just for fun, you can measure your team's progress against both the actual "Turk" as well as cut line.
Good Luck to everyone in week 5!
TheWinz
Footballguy
Team write-up
QB - Cousins & Carr
One 300 yard game and no 3 TD games. Averaging 24.5 per week. Used each twice.
RB - Barkley, Edmonds, Pierce, Z. White, Wilson, Moss
Saquon is not authorized to have a bad game. Used him all 4 weeks, with Edmonds, Pierce, and Wilson twice each.
WR - Sutton, St. Brown, Kirk, Smith-Schuster
Courtland/Christian used 3X; Amon/Juju used 2X. Will DET play it safe and keep Amon on ice this week, because of their week 6 bye?
TE - Kelce, Andrews, Pitts
Used Travis every week, Mark 3 times, and Kyle just once. 6 now remain with this trio.
K - Blankenship & Seibert
Why do I get the feeling that Seibert really isn't hurt and DET just doesn't trust him?
D - ARI & MIN
Averaging 7 a game.
QB - Cousins & Carr
One 300 yard game and no 3 TD games. Averaging 24.5 per week. Used each twice.
RB - Barkley, Edmonds, Pierce, Z. White, Wilson, Moss
Saquon is not authorized to have a bad game. Used him all 4 weeks, with Edmonds, Pierce, and Wilson twice each.
WR - Sutton, St. Brown, Kirk, Smith-Schuster
Courtland/Christian used 3X; Amon/Juju used 2X. Will DET play it safe and keep Amon on ice this week, because of their week 6 bye?
TE - Kelce, Andrews, Pitts
Used Travis every week, Mark 3 times, and Kyle just once. 6 now remain with this trio.
K - Blankenship & Seibert
Why do I get the feeling that Seibert really isn't hurt and DET just doesn't trust him?
D - ARI & MIN
Averaging 7 a game.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Fun teams still alive include:
- A team with Matt Ryan as their only QB
- A team that has more QB's (10) than all other positions combined (9)
- A team that has used Isaiah Spiller every week, even though Spiller has yet to touch the ball
- A team with only Allen Robinson and Isaiah McKenzie at WR
- A team with only 2 each at RB and WR
- A team with only Zane Gonzalez at K
- A team whose top weekly RB has outscored their top weekly K only once
- A team with Matt Ryan as their only QB
- A team that has more QB's (10) than all other positions combined (9)
- A team that has used Isaiah Spiller every week, even though Spiller has yet to touch the ball
- A team with only Allen Robinson and Isaiah McKenzie at WR
- A team with only 2 each at RB and WR
- A team with only Zane Gonzalez at K
- A team whose top weekly RB has outscored their top weekly K only once
rockaction
Footballguy
These are my kickers. They are why I'm still in the contest.
Strategy behind selecting them? I took the best kickers at three bucks regardless of potential team scoring. That way they don't get cut by their clubs and they give you that one-in-three shot of having a big day even with mediocre offenses dragging them down. Gano is a stud kicker. Zuerlein is clearly streaky, but still passable. And Fairbairn has proven somewhat reliable for Houston over the past three years. They're unlikely to get cut (ahh, I speaketh too soon) or at least they have a slightly longer leash than the other three dollar kickers.
Anyway, it seems to be working in tune with that probability thing that I haven't quantified, but seems intuitively correct (which probability often isn't, but in this case, I say "more darts, more fun").
joey
Footballguy
I survived week 4 by 20 points.
Had my first major injury hit, losing my RB1 (Javonte). I thankfully have Hall, Edwards, Pierce and Wilson (plus Moss and Homer as $3 what-the-heck’s)
I do also have Renfrow but expect he’ll be back soon and my other WRs choices are working out well with Diggs, Sutton, Lazard, MacKenzie, Palmer and Pickens. Hopefully 3 of them always have an UP week.
I skimped at TE (not sure if I’ll do that again next year) but thankfully had decent weeks from Knox and a Holy Cow week from Alie-Cox this week.
I’m down to 1 kicker in Greg Z but hoping Seibert is back very soon and maybe Blankenship gets signed again at some point.
The “3 cheap Ds” plan is working fine and I’m getting around 10 points per week from one of Balt, Minn or Tenn.
ONWARD!!!!!
Had my first major injury hit, losing my RB1 (Javonte). I thankfully have Hall, Edwards, Pierce and Wilson (plus Moss and Homer as $3 what-the-heck’s)
I do also have Renfrow but expect he’ll be back soon and my other WRs choices are working out well with Diggs, Sutton, Lazard, MacKenzie, Palmer and Pickens. Hopefully 3 of them always have an UP week.
I skimped at TE (not sure if I’ll do that again next year) but thankfully had decent weeks from Knox and a Holy Cow week from Alie-Cox this week.
I’m down to 1 kicker in Greg Z but hoping Seibert is back very soon and maybe Blankenship gets signed again at some point.
The “3 cheap Ds” plan is working fine and I’m getting around 10 points per week from one of Balt, Minn or Tenn.
ONWARD!!!!!
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Gano is the one that got away. Going to the Bengals preseason game with the Giants had me witness him getting a concussion and it made me gunshy on him - big regret right now as he is an awesome kicker. Hoping Seibert is back to join Money Mac but with the Money Badger now looming on Detroit's practice squad I am not too optimistic about Seibert having an sort of leash.
-QG
-QG
Puppies
Footballguy
Welcome to the group, and good luck!
Maybe the first time is a charm
The first time I ever played this contest back in 2011, I came in 4th and won $1,500, a two year subscription, and a $350 team entry into the following years big money game.
Over the past 11 years, the prizes in the subscriber contest have been whittled down a bit. The 1st place prize in 2011 was $20,000.
I remember it like it was yesterday because I felt lucky to survive the contest all the way to the finals. But I had a mediocre score the first week and sat at around 155th place out of 250 after the first playoff week. But in the 2nd week, my team went off the rails and posted the top overall score, which vaulted my team to from 155th up to 2nd place overall with one week left in the contest. This is when I freaked out in disbelief and looked at the prize list.
I didn’t do great in the final week, but luckily neither did the other top teams, and I was fortunate to only drop 2 places and finish 4th. My 3 week playoff total was less than 1 point from slipping 3 more slots down to 7th, but was also only 3 or 4 points short of winning it all and taking home $20,000.
The final day was a nail-biter, and I was constantly using the “Turk-o-matic” and checking out the other top team rosters during the games, trying to see if I still had a chance not to blow it. I figured winning it was too good to be true, but somehow I lucked out and only dropped 2 slots. I can remember after it looked like I was 4th, keeping my fingers crossed that no NFL stat changes would alter that result.
But all of that said, I think most people love this contest as much for the actual strategy and challenge as they do for the chance to actually win a prize. I haven’t had a sniff of the finals since that first year. My best finish since then was getting eliminated one week short of the playoffs one time.
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apalmer
Footballguy
Just for clarity: Traditionally in NFL training camps the guys who are being cut get a knock on their door and a request to report to the head coach with their playbook. Among players, that knock is (was?) called "a visit from the Turk". Early on in the contest years, someone in the related thread compared the guy posting the cuts each week (at the time I believe it was Doug Drinen) to the Turk and the name stuck. So, you've got your reference a little backwards there: it's not called the Turk because that's who sets it up, he's the Turk because he makes the cuts.
signed,
Old guy who has been here forever
Puppies
Footballguy
Thank you for that!
And you are absolutely correct that I was not aware of the actual origin of the term. Thank you for the background information, and for setting me straight!
Urban Dictionary: Visit from the Turk
Slang for being fired, especially from a sports team. The term is most commonly used in the preseason, when teams must cut players to conform to a maximum roster size.
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Thanks for the thoughtful rooster commentary @sooted72 - upthread I posted the 2 versions I considered switching to after the post-$100 bonus deadline and both did have a Bills receiver (or at least 1 did) - haven't posted em here but both tweaked versions are generally running a little ahead of my official entry. Still a long way to go to match my 250th place (out of 250 finalists) way back when.
-QG
-QG
Puppies
Footballguy
Ways for "Footballguys" to pass the time during the 72 hours between the Monday night game and the Thursday night kickoff....
* Review your Subscriber Contest roster and ponder the list of players to determine who you should have rostered in place of those you did.
* Review the players you wanted to roster, but didn't , who are now injured and out, while at the same time feeling a sigh of relief that you didn't find a way to fit them on your team.
(For me... Javante Williams, Coradelle Patterson, Hunter Renfro...)
* Forgive yourself for rostering Rodrigo Blankenship, realizing the kicker you swapped for him was Cairo Santos, who only showed up for 1 week and whose job may not be secure either.
* Hope and pray... that Rodrigo Blankenship actually does get signed by another team, and hopefully sooner rather than later.
* Scold yourself for likely wasting $8 on Robert Tonyan, instead of staying with Gerald Everett who has produced 3 good weeks out of 4, vs none good enough to count for Tonyan.
* Feel lucky my team is still alive while averaging only 168.39 points so far, compared to averaging 182.89 through 4 weeks last year yet still getting elimnated with only 137.90 last year in week 4. (168 average probably won't be enough with the cut line percentages increasing)
* Feel disappointed that the Cousins - Carr duo has not performed up to expectations, and hope that this changes, and SOON!
* Hope that Zay Jones and Amon-Ra St. Brown are healthy and active for week 5
* Hope that with Javante Williams out, Russell Wilson is not scrambling for his life even worse than last week, and unable to throw accurate passes to Courtland Sutton.
* Feel thankful that so far, Jahan Dotson is at least as good as the pre-season hype surrounding him. His score counted 3 times for me so far, which is a bargain for a $9 cap hit.
* Hope that Trevor Lawrence starts throwing to Evan Ingram instead of fumbling 4 times.
* Pat yourself on the back that your two $3 defenses have somehow produced an average score of 7.5 points per week, and hope it continues.
* Feel fortunate that so far you have avoided the worst of the injury bug, and pray that admitting it here does not invoke Murphy's Law!
* Feel a sense of relief that Kenny Pickett is now the starting QB in Pittsburgh, and who also made George Pickens relevant for the first time in my score.
* Waste a little more time posting lots of semi-irrelevant thoughts like I've just done here in this forum...
* Scroll back through the posts in this forum to make sure there's nothing you might have missed...
* Check the time and realize that there is only about 31 hours left before Thursday night's kickoff!
* Review your Subscriber Contest roster and ponder the list of players to determine who you should have rostered in place of those you did.
* Review the players you wanted to roster, but didn't , who are now injured and out, while at the same time feeling a sigh of relief that you didn't find a way to fit them on your team.
(For me... Javante Williams, Coradelle Patterson, Hunter Renfro...)
* Forgive yourself for rostering Rodrigo Blankenship, realizing the kicker you swapped for him was Cairo Santos, who only showed up for 1 week and whose job may not be secure either.
* Hope and pray... that Rodrigo Blankenship actually does get signed by another team, and hopefully sooner rather than later.
* Scold yourself for likely wasting $8 on Robert Tonyan, instead of staying with Gerald Everett who has produced 3 good weeks out of 4, vs none good enough to count for Tonyan.
* Feel lucky my team is still alive while averaging only 168.39 points so far, compared to averaging 182.89 through 4 weeks last year yet still getting elimnated with only 137.90 last year in week 4. (168 average probably won't be enough with the cut line percentages increasing)
* Feel disappointed that the Cousins - Carr duo has not performed up to expectations, and hope that this changes, and SOON!
* Hope that Zay Jones and Amon-Ra St. Brown are healthy and active for week 5
* Hope that with Javante Williams out, Russell Wilson is not scrambling for his life even worse than last week, and unable to throw accurate passes to Courtland Sutton.
* Feel thankful that so far, Jahan Dotson is at least as good as the pre-season hype surrounding him. His score counted 3 times for me so far, which is a bargain for a $9 cap hit.
* Hope that Trevor Lawrence starts throwing to Evan Ingram instead of fumbling 4 times.
* Pat yourself on the back that your two $3 defenses have somehow produced an average score of 7.5 points per week, and hope it continues.
* Feel fortunate that so far you have avoided the worst of the injury bug, and pray that admitting it here does not invoke Murphy's Law!
* Feel a sense of relief that Kenny Pickett is now the starting QB in Pittsburgh, and who also made George Pickens relevant for the first time in my score.
* Waste a little more time posting lots of semi-irrelevant thoughts like I've just done here in this forum...
* Scroll back through the posts in this forum to make sure there's nothing you might have missed...
* Check the time and realize that there is only about 31 hours left before Thursday night's kickoff!
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Puppies
Footballguy
I'm going to guess WR Corey Davis, NYJ, @ $7 with a 76.64% survival rate
... and you can add one more item to my list (above) of things Football Guys can do to kill time between the Monday night game and Thusday night kickoff.
EDIT: (additional trivia). It takes approximately an hour and 29 minutes to search the entire player list to find out which player has the highest survival rate.
Some other players with high survival rates are: Gerald Everett 76.51%, Jamal Williams 76.19%, Cooper Kupp 75.87%, Tyler Higbee 74.78%, Travis Kelce 74.53%, Gerald Goff 74.26%
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Grid71
Footballguy
Nice find. Was going to guess either Kelce or Doubs.
I'm going to guess WR Corey Davis, NYJ, @ $7 with a 76.64% survival rate
... and you can add one more item to my list (above) of things Football Guys can do to kill time between the Monday night game and Thusday night kickoff.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Very good.
I'm going to guess WR Corey Davis, NYJ, @ $7 with a 76.64% survival rate
... and you can add one more item to my list (above) of things Football Guys can do to kill time between the Monday night game and Thusday night kickoff.
QB - Jared Goff - 74.26%
RB - Jamaal Williams - 76.19%
WR - Corey Davis - 76.64%
TE - Gerald Everett - 76.51%
K - Graham Gano - 69.03%
D - Philadelphia Eagles - 69.33%
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I considered Goff and Hurts and J Wilson but unless it is some hilarious bench fodder it is likely an out of favor moderate price guy. Official guess McKinnon. 2nd guess Hurts. 3rd guess Kirk. Scratch that 0th guess ahead of all those guys: Higbee
-QG
TheWinz
Footballguy
Good question
TheWinz
Footballguy
Brian Robinson is on 524 rosters, with a survival rate of 54.64%
TheWinz
Footballguy
The most dead 0 point player is Deshaun Watson. He just became the first extinct player.
curious how you feel about this strategy 4 weeks in. ive never seen anything like it before (although certainly people have used similar strategies in the past and im just unaware of it). would you do it again? if you could change it right now, would you: a) keep it as is? b) switch pitts out for a te who actually gets used? or c) just build a more traditional rooster?
and also, since i know youre dorky enough to have already looked this up, does anybody else in the contest have this exact trio?
sucks that you hit on sun god, zay and dotson and theyre all hurt.
its hard enough to pick the winners out of a group of like 40 wrs that basically all feel like the same bet, actually do it successfully, and then have have 3 of them go down...yikes.
Puppies
Footballguy
sucks that you hit on sun god, zay and dotson and theyre all hurt.
its hard enough to pick the winners out of a group of like 40 wrs that basically all feel like the same bet, actually do it successfully, and then have have 3 of them go down...yikes.
Oops... somehow I missed the Dotson injury. I was not aware of it until you mentioned it. Sounds like he's out at least a week and probably two, or worse. Hamstring injuries tend to linger all season, so maybe I spoke too soon about having largely escaped the injury bug so far. Not good news as I have not exactly been putting up big scores. Hopefuly Zay and St. Brown return for week 5. What I've read so far is they both of them are possible for week 5. With Dotson out, I sure hope so, or I might not be around for week 6. :(
Maybe Kenny will impress in Pittsburgh and George Pickens can help me stay alive.
9 have the trio. 6 still alive.
TheWinz
Footballguy
9 started with this trio, and 6 are still alive (lost 1 in week 1, and 2 more fell this week)
As for the strategy of rostering the top 3 TE studs, I think the idea is smart, because TE's were a better value than RB's or WR's. I wouldn't have rostered more, because I can use all 3 if they have great weeks. Spending $82 on TE's, I knew I would be lacking elsewhere, and decided that WR's were the next best value. I knew I wanted 4 "medium studs", because just like my TE's, I can use all 4 if they explode. I settled on Sutton, St. Brown, Kirk, and Smith-Schuster, thinking they should all get lots of targets.
I think my choice of Kelce, Andrews, and Pitts basically forced me into a tiny roster. I didn't want a bunch of hopeful cheapies at RB & WR. I've played that game before, with horrible results. If I could change it right now, I would keep Kelce & Andrews, and swap out Pitts for Higbee. I would then use the extra $14 to roster a 3rd K & D, and upgrade elsewhere. This is my first year with such a tiny roster, and I can say it has been been fun so far.
Puppies
Footballguy
If you mean rostering several stud TE's as the strategy, I think it's a sound one. TE's statistically score more points per cap dollar in this contest because of their receptions counting 1.5 points. They produce the most per dollar of the RB, WR and TE positions. My usual stragegy is to stack at least a couple stud TEs and plan for at least one of my flex scores coming from an extra TE each week. This year I could not afford the cap space to work it out so my compromise was to go with an upper mid range TE (Goedert), plus three others I felt had a good chance to outperform their cap $ (Evan Ingram, Hayden Hurst, and Robert Tonyan). I did this in order to afford an extra mid-dollar RB and WR. I'm going to need a lot of flex help this year from WRs.
bc sometimes you just need the guy getting 3 targets from geno smith every week.
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