Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m 2 points over the cut line.
I need my 49ers D/ST to blow TF up.
I need my 49ers D/ST to blow TF up.
I'm probalby on the bubble at 145.75 after the 4pm games. 2,260 teams between me and the cut.
Only Fournette and Edwards-Helaire (-10.90) and Smith-Schuster (-13.20) Still to go.
Hopefully I can eek out a few more points and stay about the cut line
i'm pretty screwed guys. Sitting at 177 after the 4 pm games. Thousands of teams between me and the cut.
Mahommes - 13, CEH, Kupp, and Evans -10 left to go.
Hopefully I can stay above the cut.
What am I missing here?
if you are sitting on 177 after the 4pm games, how do you possibly think your team is in jeopardy? The cut line is 128.70 after the 4pm games. It probalby won't go much above 150 or so. (just a guess)
??
With you my Freind ! Anyone ever make a run without 1?Blankenship + Seibert here... never thought I'd be down to 0 kickers in 3 weeksBlankenship + Seibert + Gano here… never thought I’d be down to 1 kicker in 3 weeks
MoJust stopped for dinner on the way home from that Steelers debacle. Jared Goff, TJ Hockensen and Mo Alie-Cox were worth 112 points. On to week 5.
I'm probalby on the bubble at 145.75 after the 4pm games. 2,260 teams between me and the cut.
Only Fournette and Edwards-Helaire (-10.90) and Smith-Schuster (-13.20) Still to go.
Hopefully I can eek out a few more points and stay about the cut line
i'm pretty screwed guys. Sitting at 177 after the 4 pm games. Thousands of teams between me and the cut.
Mahommes - 13, CEH, Kupp, and Evans -10 left to go.
Hopefully I can stay above the cut.
What am I missing here?
if you are sitting on 177 after the 4pm games, how do you possibly think your team is in jeopardy? The cut line is 128.70 after the 4pm games. It probalby won't go much above 150 or so. (just a guess)
??
It was a subtle poke at you and your situation which was an auto advance, not probably on the bubble. You have to be at least at 155 and only that low if your 18 from Fournette wasn't a usable score.
Part of the fun is sweating the turk. Of course sweating but surviving .I'm probalby on the bubble at 145.75 after the 4pm games. 2,260 teams between me and the cut.
Only Fournette and Edwards-Helaire (-10.90) and Smith-Schuster (-13.20) Still to go.
Hopefully I can eek out a few more points and stay about the cut line
i'm pretty screwed guys. Sitting at 177 after the 4 pm games. Thousands of teams between me and the cut.
Mahommes - 13, CEH, Kupp, and Evans -10 left to go.
Hopefully I can stay above the cut.
What am I missing here?
if you are sitting on 177 after the 4pm games, how do you possibly think your team is in jeopardy? The cut line is 128.70 after the 4pm games. It probalby won't go much above 150 or so. (just a guess)
??
It was a subtle poke at you and your situation which was an auto advance, not probably on the bubble. You have to be at least at 155 and only that low if your 18 from Fournette wasn't a usable score.
Truthfully, I was NOT being scarcastic when I wrote that. At the time I posted it, I was afraid I might be on the bubble. I had updated my statistics on my own spreadsheet, and the standings had not yet been updated. So I was not sure how much the cut line would rise after the 4pm results were figured in. I had it in my mind that last week the cut line would have been 142.55 if it had been a 20% cut week, so I was not yet feeling safe. With the cut percentage rising to 20% this week, I had a ballpark figure of 160 in my mind to assume I was safe. With the size of fluctuations in the cut line historically from week to week, I don't yet feel confident that I can predict how much it may move. When the standings updated and the cut line only rose to 128.75 after the 4pm games, I was relieved and pleasantly surprised.
Note also that Leonard Fournette's score did not even count for me until he scored a TD with only seconds left in the game. And when he made that touchdown catch, it only raised my score by 1.7 points, because my lowest flex score was 13.20 prior to his TD. In the meantime, Edwards-Helaire had scored 2 TDs and put me in much better shape. Fournette ended up being my 2nd flex at 14.90. Those final three players only ended up raising my total score by 12.7 points.
As of this morning I'm sitting at 158.45 and I'm done. With the cut line presently at 136.05, and realizing Monday night last week only moved the cut line about 6 points, I'm looking forward to week 5.
I really do hope that those who are posting in this forum all advance to the finals. I see this more like a golf game where we are competing against the course, than against each other. Plus, it won't be any fun if people get eliminated and stop posting here. I've played this contest since 2011, but I never realized there was a separate chat forum for the subscriber contest until this year. I've enjoyed posting here and I hope we are all fortunate to hang around in the contest and chat with each other a while longer.
I originally had Pickett on my roster but dropped him before my final iteration. I'm regretting that now as it looks like he may end up being the ultimate bargain 3rd QB for lots of teams. I'm from PIttsburgh and I'm a life long Steelers fan. It came down to asking myself if I was rostering him out of logic or out of emotion. Realizing that he may go half or more of the season before getting a chance to play, I figured I'd be better to spend the $3 somewhere else in hopes of increasing my chances to stay alive early.
Welcome aboard and don't worry about the sniping...it's all part of the fun. Glad to see another Burgh guy join in (there are a bunch of us in this thread). FWIW, my answer to the Pickett debate was to take him and Trubisky as my joint #2, figuring if he didn't get playing time, it would mean Trubisky was doing OK and I'd still have a chance for points.I'm probalby on the bubble at 145.75 after the 4pm games. 2,260 teams between me and the cut.
Only Fournette and Edwards-Helaire (-10.90) and Smith-Schuster (-13.20) Still to go.
Hopefully I can eek out a few more points and stay about the cut line
i'm pretty screwed guys. Sitting at 177 after the 4 pm games. Thousands of teams between me and the cut.
Mahommes - 13, CEH, Kupp, and Evans -10 left to go.
Hopefully I can stay above the cut.
What am I missing here?
if you are sitting on 177 after the 4pm games, how do you possibly think your team is in jeopardy? The cut line is 128.70 after the 4pm games. It probalby won't go much above 150 or so. (just a guess)
??
It was a subtle poke at you and your situation which was an auto advance, not probably on the bubble. You have to be at least at 155 and only that low if your 18 from Fournette wasn't a usable score.
Truthfully, I was NOT being scarcastic when I wrote that. At the time I posted it, I was afraid I might be on the bubble. I had updated my statistics on my own spreadsheet, and the standings had not yet been updated. So I was not sure how much the cut line would rise after the 4pm results were figured in. I had it in my mind that last week the cut line would have been 142.55 if it had been a 20% cut week, so I was not yet feeling safe. With the cut percentage rising to 20% this week, I had a ballpark figure of 160 in my mind to assume I was safe. With the size of fluctuations in the cut line historically from week to week, I don't yet feel confident that I can predict how much it may move. When the standings updated and the cut line only rose to 128.75 after the 4pm games, I was relieved and pleasantly surprised.
Note also that Leonard Fournette's score did not even count for me until he scored a TD with only seconds left in the game. And when he made that touchdown catch, it only raised my score by 1.7 points, because my lowest flex score was 13.20 prior to his TD. In the meantime, Edwards-Helaire had scored 2 TDs and put me in much better shape. Fournette ended up being my 2nd flex at 14.90. Those final three players only ended up raising my total score by 12.7 points.
As of this morning I'm sitting at 158.45 and I'm done. With the cut line presently at 136.05, and realizing Monday night last week only moved the cut line about 6 points, I'm looking forward to week 5.
I really do hope that those who are posting in this forum all advance to the finals. I see this more like a golf game where we are competing against the course, than against each other. Plus, it won't be any fun if people get eliminated and stop posting here. I've played this contest since 2011, but I never realized there was a separate chat forum for the subscriber contest until this year. I've enjoyed posting here and I hope we are all fortunate to hang around in the contest and chat with each other a while longer.
I originally had Pickett on my roster but dropped him before my final iteration. I'm regretting that now as it looks like he may end up being the ultimate bargain 3rd QB for lots of teams. I'm from PIttsburgh and I'm a life long Steelers fan. It came down to asking myself if I was rostering him out of logic or out of emotion. Realizing that he may go half or more of the season before getting a chance to play, I figured I'd be better to spend the $3 somewhere else in hopes of increasing my chances to stay alive early.
7.2 points below the unofficial cut line of 136.05. Jeff Wilson, ARob, D/ST 49'ers remaining...
...my brain is kinda fried this AM. Outside of rooting for my guys to crush it (49'ers D demolishes Rams O, but leaves ARob virtually uncovered, allowing Stafford to pepper him drive after drive. Meanwhile, on offense, the 9'ers relentlessly pound the Rams D with a terminal overdose of Wilson, who miraculously survives a utilization rate well past his injury threshold), do I have any chance of avoiding ?
I'm probalby on the bubble at 145.75 after the 4pm games. 2,260 teams between me and the cut.
Only Fournette and Edwards-Helaire (-10.90) and Smith-Schuster (-13.20) Still to go.
Hopefully I can eek out a few more points and stay about the cut line
i'm pretty screwed guys. Sitting at 177 after the 4 pm games. Thousands of teams between me and the cut.
Mahommes - 13, CEH, Kupp, and Evans -10 left to go.
Hopefully I can stay above the cut.
What am I missing here?
if you are sitting on 177 after the 4pm games, how do you possibly think your team is in jeopardy? The cut line is 128.70 after the 4pm games. It probalby won't go much above 150 or so. (just a guess)
??
It was a subtle poke at you and your situation which was an auto advance, not probably on the bubble. You have to be at least at 155 and only that low if your 18 from Fournette wasn't a usable score.
Truthfully, I was NOT being scarcastic when I wrote that. At the time I posted it, I was afraid I might be on the bubble. I had updated my statistics on my own spreadsheet, and the standings had not yet been updated. So I was not sure how much the cut line would rise after the 4pm results were figured in. I had it in my mind that last week the cut line would have been 142.55 if it had been a 20% cut week, so I was not yet feeling safe. With the cut percentage rising to 20% this week, I had a ballpark figure of 160 in my mind to assume I was safe. With the size of fluctuations in the cut line historically from week to week, I don't yet feel confident that I can predict how much it may move. When the standings updated and the cut line only rose to 128.75 after the 4pm games, I was relieved and pleasantly surprised.
Note also that Leonard Fournette's score did not even count for me until he scored a TD with only seconds left in the game. And when he made that touchdown catch, it only raised my score by 1.7 points, because my lowest flex score was 13.20 prior to his TD. In the meantime, Edwards-Helaire had scored 2 TDs and put me in much better shape. Fournette ended up being my 2nd flex at 14.90. Those final three players only ended up raising my total score by 12.7 points.
As of this morning I'm sitting at 158.45 and I'm done. With the cut line presently at 136.05, and realizing Monday night last week only moved the cut line about 6 points, I'm looking forward to week 5.
I really do hope that those who are posting in this forum all advance to the finals. I see this more like a golf game where we are competing against the course, than against each other. Plus, it won't be any fun if people get eliminated and stop posting here. I've played this contest since 2011, but I never realized there was a separate chat forum for the subscriber contest until this year. I've enjoyed posting here and I hope we are all fortunate to hang around in the contest and chat with each other a while longer.
I originally had Pickett on my roster but dropped him before my final iteration. I'm regretting that now as it looks like he may end up being the ultimate bargain 3rd QB for lots of teams. I'm from PIttsburgh and I'm a life long Steelers fan. It came down to asking myself if I was rostering him out of logic or out of emotion. Realizing that he may go half or more of the season before getting a chance to play, I figured I'd be better to spend the $3 somewhere else in hopes of increasing my chances to stay alive early.
Except it looks like ARob and Wilson are both in the -8 range and the 49ers are -6 for him. Needing to climb over 700 other entries is not optimal, but if he can get a 20 point game or so from any one of them (or two 15 point games), it might be enough I'm saying there's a chance.7.2 points below the unofficial cut line of 136.05. Jeff Wilson, ARob, D/ST 49'ers remaining...
...my brain is kinda fried this AM. Outside of rooting for my guys to crush it (49'ers D demolishes Rams O, but leaves ARob virtually uncovered, allowing Stafford to pepper him drive after drive. Meanwhile, on offense, the 9'ers relentlessly pound the Rams D with a terminal overdose of Wilson, who miraculously survives a utilization rate well past his injury threshold), do I have any chance of avoiding ?
If it's truly those remaining counting immediately than you are 80-90% likely to advance.
I'm done at 150. Not sure I'm safe but feel like I should be.Unofficial cut looks like it is 136.05 after SNF
Wilson is probably the top 49er with just under 1400 roosters
-QG
i actually really liked this strategy and tried to make it work, at one point having a qb corps of mahomes/pickett/trubisky/mariota/ritter until i ran out of rooster spots and changed it. but i think something like it was definitely a viable cheap backup qb strategy.
FWIW, my answer to the Pickett debate was to take him and Trubisky as my joint #2, figuring if he didn't get playing time, it would mean Trubisky was doing OK and I'd still have a chance for points.
Same here. Went Carr with Trubisky/Pickett duo. Cheap combo for bye week and occasional pop up score. Pickett being a wild card since he looked much better than expected through preseason.i actually really liked this strategy and tried to make it work, at one point having a qb corps of mahomes/pickett/trubisky/mariota/ritter until i ran out of rooster spots and changed it. but i think something like it was definitely a viable cheap backup qb strategy.
I originally had Pickett on my roster but dropped him before my final iteration. I'm regretting that now as it looks like he may end up being the ultimate bargain 3rd QB for lots of teams. I'm from PIttsburgh and I'm a life long Steelers fan. It came down to asking myself if I was rostering him out of logic or out of emotion. Realizing that he may go half or more of the season before getting a chance to play, I figured I'd be better to spend the $3 somewhere else in hopes of increasing my chances to stay alive early.
I went a little more expensive with Allen and Trubisky/Pickett for the high ceiling with the cheap backup.Same here. Went Carr with Trubisky/Pickett duo. Cheap combo for bye week and occasional pop up score. Pickett being a wild card since he looked much better than expected through preseason.i actually really liked this strategy and tried to make it work, at one point having a qb corps of mahomes/pickett/trubisky/mariota/ritter until i ran out of rooster spots and changed it. but i think something like it was definitely a viable cheap backup qb strategy.
I originally had Pickett on my roster but dropped him before my final iteration. I'm regretting that now as it looks like he may end up being the ultimate bargain 3rd QB for lots of teams. I'm from PIttsburgh and I'm a life long Steelers fan. It came down to asking myself if I was rostering him out of logic or out of emotion. Realizing that he may go half or more of the season before getting a chance to play, I figured I'd be better to spend the $3 somewhere else in hopes of increasing my chances to stay alive early.
I avoided him in the contest, but my league team featuring Kamara, Javonte and Montgomery is not looking good.Javonte - Torn ACL and done for the year per Schefter (https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1576979345557463040?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet)....
1056 roosters are impacted, including mine.
Good luck for those on the bubble tonight...
Good luck for those on the bubble tonight... Pulling for you @TwinTurbo to get up above the cut.
I think you will be good. That Wilson TD was a great start.Looks grim for me with just 131.90 ( 4.15 below the tentative cut line). Only have Jeff Wilson -8.5 and the 49ers D -9 left to take the field.
Looks like fading Dameon Pierce bit me in the butt after all!
Thanks good buddy. So far so good. It's going to be close.Good luck for those on the bubble tonight... Pulling for you @TwinTurbo to get up above the cut.
mbn to run so pure. i mean you basically needed injuries to mitchell, lance and tdp all at once for him to be anything more than the occasional spot start but here we are i guess.1381 with Wilson.
Oops a daisies!I prefer to play it the other way and say I will advance every week. I haven't come close to the cut, and week 4 will be no different. There's no such thing as jinxes!Just catching up in here. The 2nd half has to be better than the 1st half, right? Right?Currently sitting at 121 with Daniel Jones (+8), Barkley (+8.9) and Toney. Not looking good for me
You're a mortal lock to advance. Care to wager $10 on the outcome?
Cut was 131 so Barkley alone put you over. Jones had you clearing the bar by double digits and put you clear of the cut by 1700 people without even scoring a TD.
If you gave me the option of taking your "not looking good" position every remaining cut week I'd take that deal in a heartbeat right now.
Congrats and see you next week.
PLAYER | USED | TOTAL | PTSPER$ |
QB - Josh Allen - BUF/7 - $25 | 3 | 120.00 | 4.80 |
QB - Jared Goff - DET/6 - $9 | 1 | 42.00 | 4.67 |
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/10 - $30 | 2 | 33.40 | 1.11 |
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $26 | 4 | 76.50 | 2.94 |
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10 | 2 | 40.00 | 4.00 |
RB - Zamir White - LV/6 - $6 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RB - Jeff Wilson - SF/9 - $3 | 1 | 11.30 | 3.77 |
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19 | 4 | 64.80 | 3.41 |
WR - Marquise Brown - ARI/13 - $18 | 4 | 75.90 | 4.22 |
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - KC/8 - $15 | 1 | 13.90 | 0.93 |
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6 | 1 | 16.20 | 2.70 |
WR - Josh Palmer - LAC/8 - $6 | 2 | 28.90 | 4.82 |
WR - Sammy Watkins - GB/14 - $4 | 1 | 12.30 | 3.08 |
WR - Braxton Berrios - NYJ/10 - $4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
WR - Laviska Shenault - CAR/13 - $3 | 1 | 17.00 | 5.67 |
TE - Kyle Pitts - ATL/14 - $24 | 1 | 16.20 | 0.68 |
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/7 - $10 | 3 | 51.30 | 5.13 |
TE - Hayden Hurst - CIN/10 - $8 | 1 | 12.10 | 1.51 |
TE - Cade Otton - TB/11 - $3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
PK - Evan McPherson - CIN/10 - $6 | 3 | 35.90 | 5.98 |
PK - Austin Seibert - DET/6 - $3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3 | 1 | 9.50 | 3.17 |
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3 | 1 | 9.00 | 3.00 |
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/6 - $3 | 3 | 21.00 | 7.00 |
TOTAL | 40 | 707.20 | 3.54 |
SF defense puts you at 154.25. You should make it easily. I'm guessing the cut line doesn't go past 145.If I made the cut, imma send the 49ers D a fruit basket.
Kupp carried the team through again along with Wilson.Good luck for those on the bubble tonight... Pulling for you @TwinTurbo to get up above the cut.
woohoo!!!SF defense puts you at 154.25. You should make it easily. I'm guessing the cut line doesn't go past 145.If I made the cut, imma send the 49ers D a fruit basket.
EDIT: (1:25 am) Standings were just updated, and you made it. Cut line is 142.00.
TheWinz also made it by a couple ponts!
Week 4's victims of Joe $100 are:
@Deamon - 138.55 - $42 spent on the Pitts/Schultz combo, and the return is 4 points? And the Cousins/Carr combo have been a let down so far.
@The Man With No Name - 137.65 - If I had to blame a single position, I'd say QB let him down. Losing Javonte for the year would've been hard too.
Special shout out to @dbc925 for his 23rd place finish. I was the lowest survivor at 6964th. Overall, we have a 84.6% survival rate, compared to the 58.4% contest average.
The last tinker I did was adding Zack Moss and dropping Graham Gano. Massive mistake!Week 4's victims of Joe $100 are:
@Deamon - 138.55 - $42 spent on the Pitts/Schultz combo, and the return is 4 points? And the Cousins/Carr combo have been a let down so far.
@The Man With No Name - 137.65 - If I had to blame a single position, I'd say QB let him down. Losing Javonte for the year would've been hard too.
Special shout out to @dbc925 for his 23rd place finish. I was the lowest survivor at 6964th. Overall, we have a 84.6% survival rate, compared to the 58.4% contest average.
I won't ask you to do this, but I wonder what the survived rate is for the guys who tinkered.
Bolded choice validated on MNF. Kupp MVP again this week. The earlier build with J.Allen would not have advanced.Kupp carried my team through. But I made two choices with my final iteration that are yet to be validated.
Changed J.Allen + St.Brown + Hardman to Carr + Kupp
Changed Kelce + AJ Green to Pitts + MVS
After 2 weeks, it's hard to argue for the choices I made. But on to week 3
Week 5 kicks off with IND @ DEN. Starting with 7152 teams and cutting down to 5722 (give or take).
QB - Ryan (919), Wilson (886)
They started as the 6th (Wilson) and 7th (Ryan) most common, and have leapfrogged Lance. 82 have both, meaning 800+ will start with a QB score.
RB - Williams (784), Hines (603), Taylor (375), Gordon (163)
Javonte was 10th most common from the start, and $25. A brutal loss for all Javonte owners.
WR - Sutton (2716), Pittman (1018), Jeudy (340), Pierce (271), Campbell (198), Hamler (184)
Sutton IS the most important player on Thursday Night. I know I will be counting on him.
TE - Okwuegbunam (935), Alie-Cox (872), Dulcich (27)
Albert O started 3rd most common TE, but hasn't done anything of note. Mo started 9th and is catching up to him.
K - Blankenship (3463), McManus (584)
Fun fact - Rodrigo has a higher survival rate than half of the top 4 kickers.
D - DEN (636), IND (455)
What a waste of $11 so far. They are D27 & D31.
I am gonna guess a cut of zero after the game once again.
Looks grim for me with just 131.90 ( 4.15 below the tentative cut line). Only have Jeff Wilson -8.5 and the 49ers D -9 left to take the field.
Looks like fading Dameon Pierce bit me in the butt after all!
Wellll doggy. Looks like the preliminary math was a little off. 143.75/142. Insert Undertaker gif.10 points below the cut and only Kelce left.
See y'all next year.