2022 vs 2023 Class. Is this year all that it was cracked up to be? (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I agree this WR class isn't wonderful, but I think a lot of these guys will still have decent to good draft capital.

Feels like WR draft capital is just going to rise. They are only getting more important.

I agree, would bet most of us would guess 4 go in round one which is not bad. Mainly if not all the second back end of round one but still round one.

I really hope this narrative holds up through FF draft season.

1-4, 8 & 10, and my rebuilding team needs WRs & RB.

JSN at 4, and either Addison or QJ at 8 would be chef’s kiss.

I just have to hope ARich gets drafted in the 1st the NFL.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Besides Robinson the RB class is very sketchy. Even Gibbs has his doubters. After those two it doesn’t look great. Charbonnet could be a plodder, Evans certainly has his skeptics. He’s my #3. Tucker seems to have fallen off a cliff for some odd reason. What about Kendre Miller? My #4. You don’t hear any hype surrounding him.

At WR, other than JSN, it doesn’t look very good to me.

At QB, other than Stroud and to some extent Young, it doesn’t look very good to me.

TE is the strongest position in this draft and I never get excited about drafting TEs not named Pitts.

Noted.

I’m waiting to see landing spots on QJ, Addison, Gibbs, Charbonet (who looks nothing like a plodder on film), etc before I decide whether I’m excited about them or not. Seems premature to come to any sort of concrete judgement before knowing landing spot or draft capital.

But each to their own.

I think folks are going to be disappointed with the RB draft capital after Robinson and Gibbs are off the board.

So, I've been kind of thinking of this RB class similar to the 2017 class. Which, going into their first NFL season, their dynasty outlooks were like this if I remember correctly:

Tier 1
Fournette

Tier 2
Hunt
McCaffrey
Mixon
Cook

Tier 3
Perine
Foreman
Jamaal Williams
Kamara

Tier 4
Other guys, like Marlon Mack, Joe Williams, etc., and Aaron Jones even further down.

Anyway, how would you guys compare expectations of this class, to your expectations of that class? To be clear, I'm not asking to compare this class to McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, and Aaron Jones, as they turned out. But to compare this class to who we expected all those guys to be.

My feeling is, 2023 not quite as good, but not too far off.

Agreed. The RB class is incredibly deep.

Theory: that there’s an extreme alpha at the top of the class makes the rest look lesser, but if Bijan wasn’t a generational talent, we’d have no issue considering the next several tiers with more respect than they seem to be getting

Not sure how you can call this class deep at RB. I see no proof of that……..yet. It may prove to be a good class, but I don’t see most of these guys getting 1st or 2nd day draft capital. History shows that nearly all the 4th round or later RBs aren’t fantasy relevant. Not all, but most.

Huh? SF drafts guys like Miller, Roschon, Tucker, Evans and Bigsby are likely all 2nd round picks, maybe even early 3rd in rookie drafts. Not even mentioning guys like Spears and McBride.

 

[JohnnyU]

Besides Robinson the RB class is very sketchy. Even Gibbs has his doubters. After those two it doesn’t look great. Charbonnet could be a plodder, Evans certainly has his skeptics. He’s my #3. Tucker seems to have fallen off a cliff for some odd reason. What about Kendre Miller? My #4. You don’t hear any hype surrounding him.

At WR, other than JSN, it doesn’t look very good to me.

At QB, other than Stroud and to some extent Young, it doesn’t look very good to me.

TE is the strongest position in this draft and I never get excited about drafting TEs not named Pitts.

Noted.

I’m waiting to see landing spots on QJ, Addison, Gibbs, Charbonet (who looks nothing like a plodder on film), etc before I decide whether I’m excited about them or not. Seems premature to come to any sort of concrete judgement before knowing landing spot or draft capital.

But each to their own.

I think folks are going to be disappointed with the RB draft capital after Robinson and Gibbs are off the board.

So, I've been kind of thinking of this RB class similar to the 2017 class. Which, going into their first NFL season, their dynasty outlooks were like this if I remember correctly:

Tier 1
Fournette

Tier 2
Hunt
McCaffrey
Mixon
Cook

Tier 3
Perine
Foreman
Jamaal Williams
Kamara

Tier 4
Other guys, like Marlon Mack, Joe Williams, etc., and Aaron Jones even further down.

Anyway, how would you guys compare expectations of this class, to your expectations of that class? To be clear, I'm not asking to compare this class to McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, and Aaron Jones, as they turned out. But to compare this class to who we expected all those guys to be.

My feeling is, 2023 not quite as good, but not too far off.

Agreed. The RB class is incredibly deep.

Theory: that there’s an extreme alpha at the top of the class makes the rest look lesser, but if Bijan wasn’t a generational talent, we’d have no issue considering the next several tiers with more respect than they seem to be getting

Not sure how you can call this class deep at RB. I see no proof of that……..yet. It may prove to be a good class, but I don’t see most of these guys getting 1st or 2nd day draft capital. History shows that nearly all the 4th round or later RBs aren’t fantasy relevant. Not all, but most.

Huh? SF drafts guys like Miller, Roschon, Tucker, Evans and Bigsby are likely all 2nd round picks, maybe even early 3rd in rookie drafts. Not even mentioning guys like Spears and McBride.

That is far fetched to think all those guys are 2nd round. I wouldn’t be surprised if 3 of them go 4th round or later and one (Evans) goes 3rd round. Miller may go 3rd or later, not 2nd round IMO. I’m talking NFL draft, not fantasy drafts.

 

[msudaisy26]

I think it depends on what format you play. Super flex and tight end premium then you will like this draft much better than 2022.

However I would bet a lot of money that 2023 Wr won't be able to beat the 2022 class and you had 4 rookie rbs in 2022 that were solid and consistent producers for fantasy and you have another 4 or 5 that could breakout this year.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Besides Robinson the RB class is very sketchy. Even Gibbs has his doubters. After those two it doesn’t look great. Charbonnet could be a plodder, Evans certainly has his skeptics. He’s my #3. Tucker seems to have fallen off a cliff for some odd reason. What about Kendre Miller? My #4. You don’t hear any hype surrounding him.

At WR, other than JSN, it doesn’t look very good to me.

At QB, other than Stroud and to some extent Young, it doesn’t look very good to me.

TE is the strongest position in this draft and I never get excited about drafting TEs not named Pitts.

Noted.

I’m waiting to see landing spots on QJ, Addison, Gibbs, Charbonet (who looks nothing like a plodder on film), etc before I decide whether I’m excited about them or not. Seems premature to come to any sort of concrete judgement before knowing landing spot or draft capital.

But each to their own.

I think folks are going to be disappointed with the RB draft capital after Robinson and Gibbs are off the board.

So, I've been kind of thinking of this RB class similar to the 2017 class. Which, going into their first NFL season, their dynasty outlooks were like this if I remember correctly:

Tier 1
Fournette

Tier 2
Hunt
McCaffrey
Mixon
Cook

Tier 3
Perine
Foreman
Jamaal Williams
Kamara

Tier 4
Other guys, like Marlon Mack, Joe Williams, etc., and Aaron Jones even further down.

Anyway, how would you guys compare expectations of this class, to your expectations of that class? To be clear, I'm not asking to compare this class to McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, and Aaron Jones, as they turned out. But to compare this class to who we expected all those guys to be.

My feeling is, 2023 not quite as good, but not too far off.

Agreed. The RB class is incredibly deep.

Theory: that there’s an extreme alpha at the top of the class makes the rest look lesser, but if Bijan wasn’t a generational talent, we’d have no issue considering the next several tiers with more respect than they seem to be getting

Not sure how you can call this class deep at RB. I see no proof of that……..yet. It may prove to be a good class, but I don’t see most of these guys getting 1st or 2nd day draft capital. History shows that nearly all the 4th round or later RBs aren’t fantasy relevant. Not all, but most.

Huh? SF drafts guys like Miller, Roschon, Tucker, Evans and Bigsby are likely all 2nd round picks, maybe even early 3rd in rookie drafts. Not even mentioning guys like Spears and McBride.

That is far fetched to think all those guys are 2nd round. I wouldn’t be surprised if 3 of them go 4th round or later and one (Evans) goes 3rd round. Miller may go 3rd or later, not 2nd round IMO. I’m talking NFL draft, not fantasy drafts.

Right…you know I was talking about for rookie drafts, right? Of course none of those guys are going 2nd round in the real draft. Not that that matters a ton anymore for rbs, anyway. I’m just fine taking a rb that goes in the 3rd round of the NFL draft with a mid-late 1st in a rookie draft assuming the landing spot is decent. Same for 4th round running backs in the early 2nd.

5th round is pretty much my cutoff now for when I start caring about draft capital for running backs. Anything 4th round and before I’m fine with. And I believe this draft will have a lot of rbs go before the 5th, moreso than we’ve saw in awhile.

 

[JohnnyU]

Besides Robinson the RB class is very sketchy. Even Gibbs has his doubters. After those two it doesn’t look great. Charbonnet could be a plodder, Evans certainly has his skeptics. He’s my #3. Tucker seems to have fallen off a cliff for some odd reason. What about Kendre Miller? My #4. You don’t hear any hype surrounding him.

At WR, other than JSN, it doesn’t look very good to me.

At QB, other than Stroud and to some extent Young, it doesn’t look very good to me.

TE is the strongest position in this draft and I never get excited about drafting TEs not named Pitts.

Noted.

I’m waiting to see landing spots on QJ, Addison, Gibbs, Charbonet (who looks nothing like a plodder on film), etc before I decide whether I’m excited about them or not. Seems premature to come to any sort of concrete judgement before knowing landing spot or draft capital.

But each to their own.

I think folks are going to be disappointed with the RB draft capital after Robinson and Gibbs are off the board.

So, I've been kind of thinking of this RB class similar to the 2017 class. Which, going into their first NFL season, their dynasty outlooks were like this if I remember correctly:

Tier 1
Fournette

Tier 2
Hunt
McCaffrey
Mixon
Cook

Tier 3
Perine
Foreman
Jamaal Williams
Kamara

Tier 4
Other guys, like Marlon Mack, Joe Williams, etc., and Aaron Jones even further down.

Anyway, how would you guys compare expectations of this class, to your expectations of that class? To be clear, I'm not asking to compare this class to McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, and Aaron Jones, as they turned out. But to compare this class to who we expected all those guys to be.

My feeling is, 2023 not quite as good, but not too far off.

Agreed. The RB class is incredibly deep.

Theory: that there’s an extreme alpha at the top of the class makes the rest look lesser, but if Bijan wasn’t a generational talent, we’d have no issue considering the next several tiers with more respect than they seem to be getting

Not sure how you can call this class deep at RB. I see no proof of that……..yet. It may prove to be a good class, but I don’t see most of these guys getting 1st or 2nd day draft capital. History shows that nearly all the 4th round or later RBs aren’t fantasy relevant. Not all, but most.

Huh? SF drafts guys like Miller, Roschon, Tucker, Evans and Bigsby are likely all 2nd round picks, maybe even early 3rd in rookie drafts. Not even mentioning guys like Spears and McBride.

That is far fetched to think all those guys are 2nd round. I wouldn’t be surprised if 3 of them go 4th round or later and one (Evans) goes 3rd round. Miller may go 3rd or later, not 2nd round IMO. I’m talking NFL draft, not fantasy drafts.

Right…you know I was talking about for rookie drafts, right? Of course none of those guys are going 2nd round in the real draft. Not that that matters a ton anymore for rbs, anyway. I’m just fine taking a rb that goes in the 3rd round of the NFL draft with a mid-late 1st in a rookie draft assuming the landing spot is decent. Same for 4th round running backs in the early 2nd.

5th round is pretty much my cutoff now for when I start caring about draft capital for running backs. Anything 4th round and before I’m fine with. And I believe this draft will have a lot of rbs go before the 5th, moreso than we’ve saw in awhile.

Have you ever researched the hit rate for RBs taken in the 4th round or later? Also, don’t say that things have changed recently to better the chances of RBs drafted later because teams devalued the position, because it’s been this way for many years.

 

[menobrown]

Besides Robinson the RB class is very sketchy. Even Gibbs has his doubters. After those two it doesn’t look great. Charbonnet could be a plodder, Evans certainly has his skeptics. He’s my #3. Tucker seems to have fallen off a cliff for some odd reason. What about Kendre Miller? My #4. You don’t hear any hype surrounding him.

At WR, other than JSN, it doesn’t look very good to me.

At QB, other than Stroud and to some extent Young, it doesn’t look very good to me.

TE is the strongest position in this draft and I never get excited about drafting TEs not named Pitts.

Noted.

I’m waiting to see landing spots on QJ, Addison, Gibbs, Charbonet (who looks nothing like a plodder on film), etc before I decide whether I’m excited about them or not. Seems premature to come to any sort of concrete judgement before knowing landing spot or draft capital.

But each to their own.

I think folks are going to be disappointed with the RB draft capital after Robinson and Gibbs are off the board.

So, I've been kind of thinking of this RB class similar to the 2017 class. Which, going into their first NFL season, their dynasty outlooks were like this if I remember correctly:

Tier 1
Fournette

Tier 2
Hunt
McCaffrey
Mixon
Cook

Tier 3
Perine
Foreman
Jamaal Williams
Kamara

Tier 4
Other guys, like Marlon Mack, Joe Williams, etc., and Aaron Jones even further down.

Anyway, how would you guys compare expectations of this class, to your expectations of that class? To be clear, I'm not asking to compare this class to McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, and Aaron Jones, as they turned out. But to compare this class to who we expected all those guys to be.

My feeling is, 2023 not quite as good, but not too far off.

Agreed. The RB class is incredibly deep.

Theory: that there’s an extreme alpha at the top of the class makes the rest look lesser, but if Bijan wasn’t a generational talent, we’d have no issue considering the next several tiers with more respect than they seem to be getting

Not sure how you can call this class deep at RB. I see no proof of that……..yet. It may prove to be a good class, but I don’t see most of these guys getting 1st or 2nd day draft capital. History shows that nearly all the 4th round or later RBs aren’t fantasy relevant. Not all, but most.

Huh? SF drafts guys like Miller, Roschon, Tucker, Evans and Bigsby are likely all 2nd round picks, maybe even early 3rd in rookie drafts. Not even mentioning guys like Spears and McBride.

That is far fetched to think all those guys are 2nd round. I wouldn’t be surprised if 3 of them go 4th round or later and one (Evans) goes 3rd round. Miller may go 3rd or later, not 2nd round IMO. I’m talking NFL draft, not fantasy drafts.

Right…you know I was talking about for rookie drafts, right? Of course none of those guys are going 2nd round in the real draft. Not that that matters a ton anymore for rbs, anyway. I’m just fine taking a rb that goes in the 3rd round of the NFL draft with a mid-late 1st in a rookie draft assuming the landing spot is decent. Same for 4th round running backs in the early 2nd.

5th round is pretty much my cutoff now for when I start caring about draft capital for running backs. Anything 4th round and before I’m fine with. And I believe this draft will have a lot of rbs go before the 5th, moreso than we’ve saw in awhile.

Have you ever researched the hit rate for RBs taken in the 4th round or later? Also, don’t say that things have changed recently to better the chances of RBs drafted later because teams devalued the position, because it’s been this way for many years.

You mean how like 4 of the top 10 RB's last year were 4th round or later?

 

[JoeJoe88]

Besides Robinson the RB class is very sketchy. Even Gibbs has his doubters. After those two it doesn’t look great. Charbonnet could be a plodder, Evans certainly has his skeptics. He’s my #3. Tucker seems to have fallen off a cliff for some odd reason. What about Kendre Miller? My #4. You don’t hear any hype surrounding him.

At WR, other than JSN, it doesn’t look very good to me.

At QB, other than Stroud and to some extent Young, it doesn’t look very good to me.

TE is the strongest position in this draft and I never get excited about drafting TEs not named Pitts.

Noted.

I’m waiting to see landing spots on QJ, Addison, Gibbs, Charbonet (who looks nothing like a plodder on film), etc before I decide whether I’m excited about them or not. Seems premature to come to any sort of concrete judgement before knowing landing spot or draft capital.

But each to their own.

I think folks are going to be disappointed with the RB draft capital after Robinson and Gibbs are off the board.

So, I've been kind of thinking of this RB class similar to the 2017 class. Which, going into their first NFL season, their dynasty outlooks were like this if I remember correctly:

Tier 1
Fournette

Tier 2
Hunt
McCaffrey
Mixon
Cook

Tier 3
Perine
Foreman
Jamaal Williams
Kamara

Tier 4
Other guys, like Marlon Mack, Joe Williams, etc., and Aaron Jones even further down.

Anyway, how would you guys compare expectations of this class, to your expectations of that class? To be clear, I'm not asking to compare this class to McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, and Aaron Jones, as they turned out. But to compare this class to who we expected all those guys to be.

My feeling is, 2023 not quite as good, but not too far off.

Agreed. The RB class is incredibly deep.

Theory: that there’s an extreme alpha at the top of the class makes the rest look lesser, but if Bijan wasn’t a generational talent, we’d have no issue considering the next several tiers with more respect than they seem to be getting

Not sure how you can call this class deep at RB. I see no proof of that……..yet. It may prove to be a good class, but I don’t see most of these guys getting 1st or 2nd day draft capital. History shows that nearly all the 4th round or later RBs aren’t fantasy relevant. Not all, but most.

Huh? SF drafts guys like Miller, Roschon, Tucker, Evans and Bigsby are likely all 2nd round picks, maybe even early 3rd in rookie drafts. Not even mentioning guys like Spears and McBride.

That is far fetched to think all those guys are 2nd round. I wouldn’t be surprised if 3 of them go 4th round or later and one (Evans) goes 3rd round. Miller may go 3rd or later, not 2nd round IMO. I’m talking NFL draft, not fantasy drafts.

Right…you know I was talking about for rookie drafts, right? Of course none of those guys are going 2nd round in the real draft. Not that that matters a ton anymore for rbs, anyway. I’m just fine taking a rb that goes in the 3rd round of the NFL draft with a mid-late 1st in a rookie draft assuming the landing spot is decent. Same for 4th round running backs in the early 2nd.

5th round is pretty much my cutoff now for when I start caring about draft capital for running backs. Anything 4th round and before I’m fine with. And I believe this draft will have a lot of rbs go before the 5th, moreso than we’ve saw in awhile.

Have you ever researched the hit rate for RBs taken in the 4th round or later? Also, don’t say that things have changed recently to better the chances of RBs drafted later because teams devalued the position, because it’s been this way for many years.

I imagine the hit rate on any position drafted 4th round or later isn’t very high, no?

But if I’m going to throw darts in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of rookie drafts, rb is probably the position I’m going to do it on. Especially in this draft where you have guys like Roschon and Miller who would’ve pushed for the RB3 in last years class. Last year had Pierce, Allgeier and Pacheco all drafted 4th round or later that I think most people would agree hit their rookie seasons. The year prior you had Rhamondre, Mitchell and Herbert. And this year should have much better depth than both of those years.

 

[JohnnyU]

Besides Robinson the RB class is very sketchy. Even Gibbs has his doubters. After those two it doesn’t look great. Charbonnet could be a plodder, Evans certainly has his skeptics. He’s my #3. Tucker seems to have fallen off a cliff for some odd reason. What about Kendre Miller? My #4. You don’t hear any hype surrounding him.

At WR, other than JSN, it doesn’t look very good to me.

At QB, other than Stroud and to some extent Young, it doesn’t look very good to me.

TE is the strongest position in this draft and I never get excited about drafting TEs not named Pitts.

Noted.

I’m waiting to see landing spots on QJ, Addison, Gibbs, Charbonet (who looks nothing like a plodder on film), etc before I decide whether I’m excited about them or not. Seems premature to come to any sort of concrete judgement before knowing landing spot or draft capital.

But each to their own.

I think folks are going to be disappointed with the RB draft capital after Robinson and Gibbs are off the board.

So, I've been kind of thinking of this RB class similar to the 2017 class. Which, going into their first NFL season, their dynasty outlooks were like this if I remember correctly:

Tier 1
Fournette

Tier 2
Hunt
McCaffrey
Mixon
Cook

Tier 3
Perine
Foreman
Jamaal Williams
Kamara

Tier 4
Other guys, like Marlon Mack, Joe Williams, etc., and Aaron Jones even further down.

Anyway, how would you guys compare expectations of this class, to your expectations of that class? To be clear, I'm not asking to compare this class to McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, and Aaron Jones, as they turned out. But to compare this class to who we expected all those guys to be.

My feeling is, 2023 not quite as good, but not too far off.

Agreed. The RB class is incredibly deep.

Theory: that there’s an extreme alpha at the top of the class makes the rest look lesser, but if Bijan wasn’t a generational talent, we’d have no issue considering the next several tiers with more respect than they seem to be getting

Not sure how you can call this class deep at RB. I see no proof of that……..yet. It may prove to be a good class, but I don’t see most of these guys getting 1st or 2nd day draft capital. History shows that nearly all the 4th round or later RBs aren’t fantasy relevant. Not all, but most.

Huh? SF drafts guys like Miller, Roschon, Tucker, Evans and Bigsby are likely all 2nd round picks, maybe even early 3rd in rookie drafts. Not even mentioning guys like Spears and McBride.

That is far fetched to think all those guys are 2nd round. I wouldn’t be surprised if 3 of them go 4th round or later and one (Evans) goes 3rd round. Miller may go 3rd or later, not 2nd round IMO. I’m talking NFL draft, not fantasy drafts.

Right…you know I was talking about for rookie drafts, right? Of course none of those guys are going 2nd round in the real draft. Not that that matters a ton anymore for rbs, anyway. I’m just fine taking a rb that goes in the 3rd round of the NFL draft with a mid-late 1st in a rookie draft assuming the landing spot is decent. Same for 4th round running backs in the early 2nd.

5th round is pretty much my cutoff now for when I start caring about draft capital for running backs. Anything 4th round and before I’m fine with. And I believe this draft will have a lot of rbs go before the 5th, moreso than we’ve saw in awhile.

Have you ever researched the hit rate for RBs taken in the 4th round or later? Also, don’t say that things have changed recently to better the chances of RBs drafted later because teams devalued the position, because it’s been this way for many years.

You mean how like 4 of the top 10 RB's last year were 4th round or later?

who are those 4 of top 10? I just looked at one of my ppr leagues and the list didn’t look like later round RBs to me, but I didn’t look it up. Also, of your list how safe is their status of #1 on their team? Does one good year without competition constitute a hit? I know the hit rate hasn’t been good for 4th round or later RBs.

I see Exeler, Pollard and Aaron Jones.

How old are they? My guess is the hit rate is less than 5% for RBs drafted 5th round or not at all and probably not much higher for those drafted in the 4 th round.

 

[menobrown]

who are those 4 of top 10?

Ekeler, Pollard Aaron Jones,Rhamondre. That's total points. If you prefer PPG instead this adjusts to 4 out of the top 14.

I know the hit rate hasn’t been good for 4th round or later RBs.

If you want to contend that it's fine but I got a memory like an Elephant when it comes to fantasy stuff and all I can say is I distinctly recall having this exact conversation with you two years ago where I was again pointing out how many top 10/15 were 4th round or later.

 

[JohnnyU]

who are those 4 of top 10?

Ekeler, Pollard Aaron Jones,Rhamondre. That's total points. If you prefer PPG instead this adjusts to 4 out of the top 14.

I know the hit rate hasn’t been good for 4th round or later RBs.

If you want to contend that it's fine but I got a memory like an Elephant when it comes to fantasy stuff and all I can say is I distinctly recall having this exact conversation with you two years ago where I was again pointing out how many top 10/15 were 4th round or later.

I stand by the statistics that the hit rate is low. Just because the Exeler, Jones, and Pollard are top 10 doesn’t mean the hit rate is good. Surely you know the difference.

 

[massraider]

you had 4 rookie rbs in 2022 that were solid and consistent producers for fantasy and you have another 4 or 5 that could breakout this year

I want to throw this out there, just in case it happens, but the rankings we are all going off, it's a bunch of scat backs in front of guys with lead back size. I could see the NFL passing on these little guys.

If a couple of these bigger guys go in front of Achane/Spears etc, you might completely re-write the first round of rookie drafts.

Tank Bigsby/Eric Gray/Charbonnet go in the 3rd round to CAR/CHI/DAL, for example, those guys are probably 1st round rookie picks.

 

[massraider]

I stand by the statistics that the hit rate is low

Compared to which position?

4th round later the hit rate is bad for everyone. It's relative. It's much easier to find a useful back in the 4th/5th than it is a DT/Edge/QB and on and on.

The most likely outcome for a player drafted in the 1st/2nd round is a 2nd contract with another team. Hit rate for 1st/2nd round is bad too. It's all relative.

 

[JohnnyU]

I stand by the statistics that the hit rate is low

Compared to which position?

4th round later the hit rate is bad for everyone. It's relative. It's much easier to find a useful back in the 4th/5th than it is a DT/Edge/QB and on and on.

The most likely outcome for a player drafted in the 1st/2nd round is a 2nd contract with another team. Hit rate for 1st/2nd round is bad too. It's all relative.

The point is not to get too excited about low draft capital RBs and RBs matter to fantasy more than an edge rusher or safety. Do they hit? Sure, but not often enough.

 

[msudaisy26]

you had 4 rookie rbs in 2022 that were solid and consistent producers for fantasy and you have another 4 or 5 that could breakout this year

I want to throw this out there, just in case it happens, but the rankings we are all going off, it's a bunch of scat backs in front of guys with lead back size. I could see the NFL passing on these little guys.

If a couple of these bigger guys go in front of Achane/Spears etc, you might completely re-write the first round of rookie drafts.

Tank Bigsby/Eric Gray/Charbonnet go in the 3rd round to CAR/CHI/DAL, for example, those guys are probably 1st round rookie picks.

Now that I reread my post it isn't clear.

I mean there are 4 or 5 backs from the last class that could be relevant this year. We already have Walker, Hall, Pierce, and Allgeier. Guys like White, Cook, Pacheco, Robinson and Spiller could make a leap this year as well. Although I do expect Pierce to take a step back.