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2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Mavs - Boston it is (15 Viewers)

No Luka in OKC tonight. Also, starting a game between teams in TX and OK at 9:00pm Central is ridiculous.
That's because they are the second game on TNT after PHX / BOS.
I too can read the TV schedule lol.

I am pointing out that it is dumb to put these two teams there. You should be trying to put your LAC/LAL/DEN/GSW/SAC/PHX national games in these time slots.

Maybe they get the best ratings from the big time national fans who just want to see good teams, but it seems less likely to me that you'll get the best ratings by lowering the chances that fans of either team stay up to watch.

Obviously you can only sort of predict the best teams ahead of time and right now the schedule is what it is, but I'm also reasonable certain that the OKC org HATES this late a tipoff on a Thursday night. It materially impacts their revenue in a negative way.
Wasn’t sure if you had perused the national TV schedule. The only other game farther west tonight is NYK at POR, which doesn’t quite have the appeal or the names as DAL / OKC. The league certainly could have scheduled other premium games at that time (but didn’t). Just came off of a week watching late games on the West coast, so I feel your pain.
 
No Luka in OKC tonight. Also, starting a game between teams in TX and OK at 9:00pm Central is ridiculous.
That's because they are the second game on TNT after PHX / BOS.
I too can read the TV schedule lol.

I am pointing out that it is dumb to put these two teams there. You should be trying to put your LAC/LAL/DEN/GSW/SAC/PHX national games in these time slots.

Maybe they get the best ratings from the big time national fans who just want to see good teams, but it seems less likely to me that you'll get the best ratings by lowering the chances that fans of either team stay up to watch.

Obviously you can only sort of predict the best teams ahead of time and right now the schedule is what it is, but I'm also reasonable certain that the OKC org HATES this late a tipoff on a Thursday night. It materially impacts their revenue in a negative way.
Wasn’t sure if you had perused the national TV schedule. The only other game farther west tonight is NYK at POR, which doesn’t quite have the appeal or the names as DAL / OKC. The league certainly could have scheduled other premium games at that time (but didn’t). Just came off of a week watching late games on the West coast, so I feel your pain.
Yeah, exactly. Obviously making the schedule overall is really hard, but I have to imagine TNT doesn't want a super small market plus another central time team coming off a back to back and starting ~2 hours later than the typical in zone start time as the matchup that sets them up for success.

The NBA has mostly done a good job of avoiding putting B2B second games on national TV this feels like a miss.
 
Interesting technicality regarding sengun’s award eligibility

Alperen Sengun might have delayed getting hurt just long enough and gotten hurt just severely enough to qualify for All-NBA and, more realistically, Most Improved Player votes.

You certainly know players generally must play 65 games to be eligible for major postseason awards. And you probably know players must play at least 20 minutes for those games to count, with two exceptions allowed for at least 15 minutes.

But there's also another obscure way for players to qualify for postseason awards:

"the player (A) played in at least sixty-two (62) Regular Season games, (B) suffered a 'season-ending injury' (as defined below), and (C) played in at least eighty-five percent (85%) of the Regular Season games played by his Team prior to the player suffering such injury."
Sengun played 63 of Houston's 64 games (98%). So, A and C are covered.

As far as B, a doctor jointly selected by the league and union must determine Sengun is "substantially more likely than not" to be out through May 31.

It's less clear Sengun will meet that criterion. Shams Charania was talking weeks, not months.
Sengun isn’t winning any awards
Who will win most improved player? It’s an interesting wrinkle to know about in general regardless
Maxey is the betting favorite.
I did see that but I don’t think he deserves it and I also think his shine going to come off the next few weeks without Embiid there. He’s hurt and rundown and I’m just not sure he can be effective enough. Not that that should automatically disqualify him, but seems like late season acts impact these kinds of awards more than they should. I also think that he has improved but his true improvement was a little inflated based on the way that nurse unlocked the two man game with him and Joel.
 
MIP should be Coby White or Sengun IMO.

They'll probably give it to Maxey though because they prefer those type of guys. Like when Randle stole it from Jerami Grant.
 
Painful watching Giddey get ignored and shoot 3s. He really is a fine player who does lots of things well but the Thunder look so much better with Joe or Wallace getting those minutes.
 
Painful watching Giddey get ignored and shoot 3s. He really is a fine player who does lots of things well but the Thunder look so much better with Joe or Wallace getting those minutes.
It’s funny watching teams slack way off of him and then as soon as he launches to shoot they all crash the boards lol.
 
Painful watching Giddey get ignored and shoot 3s. He really is a fine player who does lots of things well but the Thunder look so much better with Joe or Wallace getting those minutes.
It’s funny watching teams slack way off of him and then as soon as he launches to shoot they all crash the boards lol.
Everything but the three is so good too. His per/36 numbers are sick. 17 pts, 9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 83% from the line. Still just 21. I bet he gets traded this offseason for a subpar return and a few years from now everyone is like what, he got traded for who?
 
Painful watching Giddey get ignored and shoot 3s. He really is a fine player who does lots of things well but the Thunder look so much better with Joe or Wallace getting those minutes.
It’s funny watching teams slack way off of him and then as soon as he launches to shoot they all crash the boards lol.
Everything but the three is so good too. His per/36 numbers are sick. 17 pts, 9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 83% from the line. Still just 21. I bet he gets traded this offseason for a subpar return and a few years from now everyone is like what, he got traded for who?
Yea he’s a good player. All he has to do is get leave average at shooting deep.
 
Painful watching Giddey get ignored and shoot 3s. He really is a fine player who does lots of things well but the Thunder look so much better with Joe or Wallace getting those minutes.
It’s funny watching teams slack way off of him and then as soon as he launches to shoot they all crash the boards lol.
Everything but the three is so good too. His per/36 numbers are sick. 17 pts, 9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 83% from the line. Still just 21. I bet he gets traded this offseason for a subpar return and a few years from now everyone is like what, he got traded for who?
Yeah it really does seem inevitable, but you never know with Presti. He needs to be the focal point and be surrounded by shooting.
 
Painful watching Giddey get ignored and shoot 3s. He really is a fine player who does lots of things well but the Thunder look so much better with Joe or Wallace getting those minutes.
It’s funny watching teams slack way off of him and then as soon as he launches to shoot they all crash the boards lol.
Everything but the three is so good too. His per/36 numbers are sick. 17 pts, 9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 83% from the line. Still just 21. I bet he gets traded this offseason for a subpar return and a few years from now everyone is like what, he got traded for who?

That team has such an embarrassment of riches in young talent and draft picks. They're bound to get some subpar returns to fill holes.
 
Given how bad the sixers are without Embiid, he should get MVP anyway.
It is a good point. Wonder what other teams would have such a drastic fall if they lost their star player.

Dallas would be bad, but could they be a .500 team with Kyrie leading the way? Milwaukee would have Dame who has proven he can carry a team to mediocrity. Boston could lose probably two guys and still be a playoff team. Denver would still be competent without Jokic.

Golden State would be awful without Steph - although they aren't very good with him either. Would OKC be a play in team without SGA?
 
Given how bad the sixers are without Embiid, he should get MVP anyway.
It is a good point. Wonder what other teams would have such a drastic fall if they lost their star player.

Dallas would be bad, but could they be a .500 team with Kyrie leading the way? Milwaukee would have Dame who has proven he can carry a team to mediocrity. Boston could lose probably two guys and still be a playoff team. Denver would still be competent without Jokic.

Golden State would be awful without Steph - although they aren't very good with him either. Would OKC be a play in team without SGA?
I think Denver without Jokic is worse than you imply here.

I think OKC would still be pretty good.

Dallas would be a disaster, I'd expect Kyrie's body to fall apart quickly under the load. The Hardaway solo-show would have an occasional fun night probably but mostly be ugly.
 
Most teams losing their top guy would suffer tremendously, but building around a unique center like Embiid or Joker I think makes the falloff worse, as they are unicorns.
 
I saw a stat that Boston is +7.9 with Jaylen Brown on the floor and Jayson Tatum off (they are a ridiculous +15 with Tatum on and Jaylen off).

OKC has the 2nd best net rating in the league at +7.7. Obviously there are down stream effects, but Boston minus Tatum is still a really good team
 
It is a fun question. I think the teams losing their best player that would be most good still would be:

Boston
LAC

OKC
MIA
CLE
LAL

I was trying to think of some others, like MIN, but I think losing Edwards instead of Towns would have sent that team to the depths pretty quickly. SAC may still be good around DoMas or Fox (not sure which one I would say is their best) but I don't love the rest of their squad so I think they'd fall a lot. PHX without KD...well we've seen that team and it's bad lol.
 
It is a fun question. I think the teams losing their best player that would be most good still would be:

Boston
LAC

OKC
MIA
CLE
LAL

I was trying to think of some others, like MIN, but I think losing Edwards instead of Towns would have sent that team to the depths pretty quickly. SAC may still be good around DoMas or Fox (not sure which one I would say is their best) but I don't love the rest of their squad so I think they'd fall a lot. PHX without KD...well we've seen that team and it's bad lol.
I think OKC would be pretty bad without SGA. He drives everything they do. And while they have a very deep team, I think they would be like bottom 5 offense without him
 
I saw a stat that Boston is +7.9 with Jaylen Brown on the floor and Jayson Tatum off (they are a ridiculous +15 with Tatum on and Jaylen off).

OKC has the 2nd best net rating in the league at +7.7. Obviously there are down stream effects, but Boston minus Tatum is still a really good team
We've already established that my math skills are suspect. Here are the best and worse lineup combos for BOS.

Tatum-White-KP-Horford-Hauser +37.3 per 100 possessions
Brown-White-KP-Holiday-Hauser +31.4
Tatum-Holiday-Hauser-Pritchard-Kornet +29.7
Tatum-Brown-White-Horford-Hauser +22.8
Tatum-Brown-White-KP-Horford +20.4

Tatum-KP-Horford-Hauser-Pritchard +5.0
Tatum-Holiday-Hauser-Pritchard-Queta +1.2
Brown-White-KP-Holiday-Horford -7.8
Tatum-Holiday-Horford-Pritchard-Kornet -19.9
Tatum-Brown-KP-Holiday-Hauser -38.2

None of those combinations have a ton of minutes played together. The most common lineup combinations are:

JT-JB-Holiday-White-KP +13.1
JT-JB-Holiday-White-Horford +7.0

Tatum On/Off +12.0/+8.9 (Net +3.1)
Brown On/Off +9.4/+14.1 (Net -4.7)

Of the 20 two-man combos that are listed, BOS has at least a +10 differential in 16 of them. Brown / Tatum is their 15th best at +10.6. The best two-man combo is White and Hauser at +17.1.
 
Nuggets would plummet without Joker. Murray, Porter, KCP & Gordon are all really nice complementary pieces but none of them are good enough as the central figure on the team.

Celtics without Tatum is still a top 3 seed in the East.

Clippers without PG13 or Kawhi are still very, very good.

T-Wolves would lose a lot without ANT. As has been discussed, losing KAT isn't a huge blow and would be similar to the Celtics losing Jaylen Brown. Sure it sucks and takes them from being a top title contender, but making the playoffs and having a really good record is still attainable by the rest of the roster.

OKC is interesting and I haven't watched them enough to know them that well. Without SGA they have to lose a lot as just looking at advanced stats, he is incredible. Similar to the Nuggets, I don't think the rest of that roster has enough firepower or a solid identity without SGA.

Dallas would be a trainwreck without Doncic. Could be a play in team in the East, but they'd miss the playoffs in the West. Kyrie has proven multiple times he can't even carry a good team, much less an average one, deep in the playoffs.
 
Given how bad the sixers are without Embiid, he should get MVP anyway.
It is a good point. Wonder what other teams would have such a drastic fall if they lost their star player.

Dallas would be bad, but could they be a .500 team with Kyrie leading the way? Milwaukee would have Dame who has proven he can carry a team to mediocrity. Boston could lose probably two guys and still be a playoff team. Denver would still be competent without Jokic.

Golden State would be awful without Steph - although they aren't very good with him either. Would OKC be a play in team without SGA?

I think you're severely underrating Joker's value to that team.
 
Nuggets would plummet without Joker. Murray, Porter, KCP & Gordon are all really nice complementary pieces but none of them are good enough as the central figure on the team.

Celtics without Tatum is still a top 3 seed in the East.

Clippers without PG13 or Kawhi are still very, very good.

T-Wolves would lose a lot without ANT. As has been discussed, losing KAT isn't a huge blow and would be similar to the Celtics losing Jaylen Brown. Sure it sucks and takes them from being a top title contender, but making the playoffs and having a really good record is still attainable by the rest of the roster.

OKC is interesting and I haven't watched them enough to know them that well. Without SGA they have to lose a lot as just looking at advanced stats, he is incredible. Similar to the Nuggets, I don't think the rest of that roster has enough firepower or a solid identity without SGA.

Dallas would be a trainwreck without Doncic. Could be a play in team in the East, but they'd miss the playoffs in the West. Kyrie has proven multiple times he can't even carry a good team, much less an average one, deep in the playoffs.
Based on WS/48, the Top 5 players in the league that qualify are Jokic, SGA, Giannis, Porzingas, and Luka. Embiid would rank 2nd if he qualified. Tatum is 15th. Not really sure what the secret sauce is to calculate WS/48, but Jaylen Brown is the 7th best Boston player (with Sam Hauser ranked directly behind him).

We've seen how the Sixers have cratered without Embiid. I would expect the Nuggets would struggle mightily without The Joker for an extended stretch. Over the last 3 seasons, DEN has gone 7-15 when Jokic didn't play.
 
Dallas would be a trainwreck without Doncic. Could be a play in team in the East, but they'd miss the playoffs in the West. Kyrie has proven multiple times he can't even carry a good team, much less an average one, deep in the playoffs.
I think the measure of Luka’s value is that the Mavs would basically be the Wizards without him. They didn’t make the playoffs last year even with him and are in the bubble group this year.
 
Painful watching Giddey get ignored and shoot 3s. He really is a fine player who does lots of things well but the Thunder look so much better with Joe or Wallace getting those minutes.
It’s funny watching teams slack way off of him and then as soon as he launches to shoot they all crash the boards lol.
Everything but the three is so good too. His per/36 numbers are sick. 17 pts, 9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 83% from the line. Still just 21. I bet he gets traded this offseason for a subpar return and a few years from now everyone is like what, he got traded for who?
Yea he’s a good player. All he has to do is get leave average at shooting deep.
and stop sleeping with underage girls.
 
It is a fun question. I think the teams losing their best player that would be most good still would be:

Boston
LAC

OKC
MIA
CLE
LAL

I was trying to think of some others, like MIN, but I think losing Edwards instead of Towns would have sent that team to the depths pretty quickly. SAC may still be good around DoMas or Fox (not sure which one I would say is their best) but I don't love the rest of their squad so I think they'd fall a lot. PHX without KD...well we've seen that team and it's bad lol.
I think OKC would be pretty bad without SGA. He drives everything they do. And while they have a very deep team, I think they would be like bottom 5 offense without him
It’s interesting because Giddey becomes a much better player as the primary ball handler, which I think he’d be in this scenario. The key would be to replace Shai with someone that can shoot. Jdub is the second best player on the Thunder and it’d be really interesting to see how they do with him as the focal point of the offense. They’re gonna win 50+ and I am not sure they’d get to .500 without Shai, so I agree they should be a little lower on the list. Shai is a big part of why the defense is good too. Kevin Pelton mentioned him as and all-defense candidate on the Lowe Post this week
 
It is a fun question. I think the teams losing their best player that would be most good still would be:

Boston
LAC

OKC
MIA
CLE
LAL

I was trying to think of some others, like MIN, but I think losing Edwards instead of Towns would have sent that team to the depths pretty quickly. SAC may still be good around DoMas or Fox (not sure which one I would say is their best) but I don't love the rest of their squad so I think they'd fall a lot. PHX without KD...well we've seen that team and it's bad lol.
I think OKC would be pretty bad without SGA. He drives everything they do. And while they have a very deep team, I think they would be like bottom 5 offense without him
I agree that it’s all centered around SGA right now, but I think their depth plus daigneaults coaching would probably get them a little higher than that.
 

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