2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Message board poster furiously types out one more horrible post before thread closes (2 Viewers)

[Brunell4MVP]

You DAL fans enjoying Gafford? That dude is gonna help DAL to the conference finals. Somehow with Porzingis, Kuzma, Gafford, and an admittedly pretty much done Beal WAS super sucked last year. Not to mention Avdila is putting up 20+ per game under the new coach. Such bad coaching by Unseld. Leave it to Leonsis to stick w a coach that can't coach.

 

[the moops]

You DAL fans enjoying Gafford? That dude is gonna help DAL to the conference finals.

Could make some good money if you truly believe this

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

 

[dgreen]

You DAL fans enjoying Gafford? That dude is gonna help DAL to the conference finals. Somehow with Porzingis, Kuzma, Gafford, and an admittedly pretty much done Beal WAS super sucked last year. Not to mention Avdila is putting up 20+ per game under the new coach. Such bad coaching by Unseld. Leave it to Leonsis to stick w a coach that can't coach.

This team is so frustrating.

Another gem last night from Jordan Above Ground Poole - 1 for 12, 3 points, in 26:30.

I like Deni's aggressiveness, but he needs to cut down on turnovers and stop all the whining.

I love Kispert. I know he had an off night last night, but I continue to be baffled that they don't run more plays for him. He should be taking 8+ 3s each night, but that's hard to do when opponents glue a defender to him and the Wiz make very little effort to get him open.

I'm glad Bilal is getting a ton of playing time, but his offense is tough to watch right now. If he can improve there, I think he's going to be really good...which means he'll be on another team in a few years.

 

[msudaisy26]

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who us challenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

 

[the moops]

I love Kispert. I know he had an off night last night, but I continue to be baffled that they don't run more plays for him. He should be taking 8+ 3s each night, but that's hard to do when opponents glue a defender to him and the Wiz make very little effort to get him open.

Kispert is shooting as many threes per 36 (8.9) as Halliburton, Duncan Robinson, Trae, and PG. He is taking more than Dame, Herro, Tatum, and Markkanen.

What he needs to do is make more than 35.7% of the ones he is taking this year

 

[Anarchy99]

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

I take all of these projections with a grain of salt, especially when it comes to Boston. We know they can win in the regular season. Beyond that, we know they COULD beat anyone, but they haven't won a title with this group and haven't played quite as well in the playoffs.

I understand why the analytics people like them so much. Best overall record, best home record, #2 road record, #1 in scoring differential, #2 record against teams .500 or better, only lost back-to-back games once. I just wish Tatum would stop taking so many threes. He doesn't need to be taking 8.5 threes a game, especially when they are up by double digits and trying to close out games.

Oddly enough, BOS with JT, JB, KP, DW, and JH on the court have a +11.4 net rating. But switch up Porzingas for Horford and that drops to +0.8. The most productive player grouping has been JT and JH . . . with Hauser, Kornet, and Pritchard with a net rating of +22.4 (which doesn't make any sense, but the numbers are the numbers). Another odd quirk is when Tatum is on the court with any other player, the lowest net rating is a JT / JB pairing at only +7.2 (which happens 62% of the time).

 

[dgreen]

I love Kispert. I know he had an off night last night, but I continue to be baffled that they don't run more plays for him. He should be taking 8+ 3s each night, but that's hard to do when opponents glue a defender to him and the Wiz make very little effort to get him open.

Kispert is shooting as many threes per 36 (8.9) as Halliburton, Duncan Robinson, Trae, and PG. He is taking more than Dame, Herro, Tatum, and Markkanen.

What he needs to do is make more than 35.7% of the ones he is taking this year

Interesting per 36 stats. I also think he should playing more, so that's where his extra shots can come from.

I pretty much only watch Wizards games, so I have an extremely biased perspective. When I watch opponents get so many wide open looks, my impression is that Kispert (and other Wizards) take more contested 3s than their opponents. Are there advanced stats for contested shots? I feel like Kispert forces a lot at times just to get his shot. This team doesn't create a lot of open looks...based on my viewing.

 

[the moops]

I love Kispert. I know he had an off night last night, but I continue to be baffled that they don't run more plays for him. He should be taking 8+ 3s each night, but that's hard to do when opponents glue a defender to him and the Wiz make very little effort to get him open.

Kispert is shooting as many threes per 36 (8.9) as Halliburton, Duncan Robinson, Trae, and PG. He is taking more than Dame, Herro, Tatum, and Markkanen.

What he needs to do is make more than 35.7% of the ones he is taking this year

Interesting per 36 stats. I also think he should playing more, so that's where his extra shots can come from.

I pretty much only watch Wizards games, so I have an extremely biased perspective. When I watch opponents get so many wide open looks, my impression is that Kispert (and other Wizards) take more contested 3s than their opponents. Are there advanced stats for contested shots? I feel like Kispert forces a lot at times just to get his shot. This team doesn't create a lot of open looks...based on my viewing.

There is really good tracking data on nba.com https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630557/shots-dash?PerMode=Totals

Kispert has taken 286 three pointers. Only 2 of those attempts are classified as very tight (closest defender 0-2 feet). 23 are classified as tight (2-4 feet). 117 as open (4-6 feet) and 139 as wide open (6+ feet).

He is shooting 40.3% on wide open threes, which is good, but not great. But he is shooting just 29.1% on his open attempts

 

[dgreen]

I love Kispert. I know he had an off night last night, but I continue to be baffled that they don't run more plays for him. He should be taking 8+ 3s each night, but that's hard to do when opponents glue a defender to him and the Wiz make very little effort to get him open.

Kispert is shooting as many threes per 36 (8.9) as Halliburton, Duncan Robinson, Trae, and PG. He is taking more than Dame, Herro, Tatum, and Markkanen.

What he needs to do is make more than 35.7% of the ones he is taking this year

Interesting per 36 stats. I also think he should playing more, so that's where his extra shots can come from.

I pretty much only watch Wizards games, so I have an extremely biased perspective. When I watch opponents get so many wide open looks, my impression is that Kispert (and other Wizards) take more contested 3s than their opponents. Are there advanced stats for contested shots? I feel like Kispert forces a lot at times just to get his shot. This team doesn't create a lot of open looks...based on my viewing.

There is really good tracking data on nba.com https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630557/shots-dash?PerMode=Totals

Kispert has taken 286 three pointers. Only 2 of those attempts are classified as very tight (closest defender 0-2 feet). 23 are classified as tight (2-4 feet). 117 as open (4-6 feet) and 139 as wide open (6+ feet).

He is shooting 40.3% on wide open threes, which is good, but not great. But he is shooting just 29.1% on his open attempts

Ha, I can hear my son saying, "See, I told you he's nothing special." I think I just get his hot streaks stuck in my mind and I ignore some of his cold spells (like last night). I still like him, though. I'm glad he's added layups to his game. And I definitely prefer him over Poole.

 

[the moops]

I love Kispert. I know he had an off night last night, but I continue to be baffled that they don't run more plays for him. He should be taking 8+ 3s each night, but that's hard to do when opponents glue a defender to him and the Wiz make very little effort to get him open.

Kispert is shooting as many threes per 36 (8.9) as Halliburton, Duncan Robinson, Trae, and PG. He is taking more than Dame, Herro, Tatum, and Markkanen.

What he needs to do is make more than 35.7% of the ones he is taking this year

Interesting per 36 stats. I also think he should playing more, so that's where his extra shots can come from.

I pretty much only watch Wizards games, so I have an extremely biased perspective. When I watch opponents get so many wide open looks, my impression is that Kispert (and other Wizards) take more contested 3s than their opponents. Are there advanced stats for contested shots? I feel like Kispert forces a lot at times just to get his shot. This team doesn't create a lot of open looks...based on my viewing.

There is really good tracking data on nba.com https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630557/shots-dash?PerMode=Totals

Kispert has taken 286 three pointers. Only 2 of those attempts are classified as very tight (closest defender 0-2 feet). 23 are classified as tight (2-4 feet). 117 as open (4-6 feet) and 139 as wide open (6+ feet).

He is shooting 40.3% on wide open threes, which is good, but not great. But he is shooting just 29.1% on his open attempts

Ha, I can hear my son saying, "See, I told you he's nothing special." I think I just get his hot streaks stuck in my mind and I ignore some of his cold spells (like last night). I still like him, though. I'm glad he's added layups to his game. And I definitely prefer him over Poole.

I like Kispert too FYI

 

[Instinctive]

You DAL fans enjoying Gafford? That dude is gonna help DAL to the conference finals.

Could make some good money if you truly believe this

If I were in a legal sports betting spot, I'd put $100 at whatever the odds are right now.

I think there are more than 1/5 worlds in which this happens. I don't think it's the likeliest outcome. But I do think they win the West between 1/10 and 1/20 times. And I think they make the WCF maybe 2/5 times. I think seeding shaking out will obviously matter, but the only two teams I'm afraid of if I'm Dallas are Denver and LAC.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think seeding shaking out will obviously matter, but the only two teams I'm afraid of if I'm Dallas are Denver and LAC.

DAL this year has gone 1-3 against MIN (and got crushed in the losses) and 0-2 against Sacramento (both losses at home). Neither of those teams scare you?

 

[thecatch]

I think seeding shaking out will obviously matter, but the only two teams I'm afraid of if I'm Dallas are Denver and LAC.

DAL this year has gone 1-3 against MIN (and got crushed in the losses) and 0-2 against Sacramento (both losses at home). Neither of those teams scare you?

I don't think those teams (especially Sacramento) should terrify anyone, but a 40% chance of making the WCF for this team is ... high.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think seeding shaking out will obviously matter, but the only two teams I'm afraid of if I'm Dallas are Denver and LAC.

DAL this year has gone 1-3 against MIN (and got crushed in the losses) and 0-2 against Sacramento (both losses at home). Neither of those teams scare you?

I don't think those teams (especially Sacramento) should terrify anyone, but a 40% chance of making the WCF for this team is ... high.

There have been 778 instances in NBA regular-season history of a team playing consecutive road games against teams 15+ games over .500. The Timberwolves are the only one to win both games by 20+ points (beat 33-18 MIL by 24, beat 35-16 LAC by 21). Teams should definitely have the Wolves on their radar.

 

[Yo Mama]

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

I can understand the analytics models not liking Denver right now. They’ve had a number of big losses over the past month that are probably dragging their net ratings down.

 

[Boston]

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

 

[Anarchy99]

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

This version of the Celtics has done well as front runners. They often build up a 10-15 point lead and exchange baskets the rest of the way. Some nights they let inferior teams hang around and then clamp down for 5 minutes in the second half, going on a a big run, and salting games away. As has been discussed, the offensive to finish out games is usually poor. They have been turning some easy wins into close finishes. I am sick of putting the ball in Tatum's hands and having him chuck up a last second 26-footer. Move the ball. Run some plays. Drive to the basket. Draw some fouls. They don't have to just stand there and watch Tatum dribble down the shot clock.

My fear is that they don't do as well in physical games when the refs don't call much. Given that playoff games are more physical and there are way more half court possessions, I don't think that plays to their strengths. Many playoff games become rock fights and battles of will. These last few years they've had a talent advantage, but they need to start having more mental toughness to win on hard work, determination, and perseverance. I mostly agree with Mazzulla. Some nights they are complacent, lazy, and play like they are entitled and deserve to win and don't put forth the effort. I hope that they may be getting bored in the regular season and will take their effort to another level in the post season. But who knows if that's in their DNA.

 

[Instinctive]

I think seeding shaking out will obviously matter, but the only two teams I'm afraid of if I'm Dallas are Denver and LAC.

DAL this year has gone 1-3 against MIN (and got crushed in the losses) and 0-2 against Sacramento (both losses at home). Neither of those teams scare you?

I don't think those teams (especially Sacramento) should terrify anyone, but a 40% chance of making the WCF for this team is ... high.

Well it wouldn’t be much of a take if I said 10% would it? I think that’s exactly in line with implied odds, and my point is that I think they’re now underrated.

Minnesota without 48 minutes of competent center or PF play vs playing them with a full game of competence at C and most of the game at PF too is a world of difference. Add in KAT and Gobert’s consistently glaring playoff failure rate and no, I don’t think anyone should be worried about them.

I can’t tell if the Kings is a joke or not. Again with real center play but also just generally with a healthy Dallas, yeah I’d easily take this team.

National looks don’t seem to properly rate just how injured Dallas has been.

FWIW the last time I was this clear that the team was underrated, they also went to the WCF.

 

[thecatch]

I think seeding shaking out will obviously matter, but the only two teams I'm afraid of if I'm Dallas are Denver and LAC.

DAL this year has gone 1-3 against MIN (and got crushed in the losses) and 0-2 against Sacramento (both losses at home). Neither of those teams scare you?

I don't think those teams (especially Sacramento) should terrify anyone, but a 40% chance of making the WCF for this team is ... high.

Well it wouldn’t be much of a take if I said 10% would it?

It’s aggressive but not a totally outrageous take as far as opinions from homers go. There’s a decent chance this is the best Dallas team Luka will ever play on given their lack of draft capital so they better make the most of it.

 

[Frostillicus]

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

omg

 

[Major]

Watching TNTs post game show and It dawned on me. Doesn't Candace Parker look like Anthony Davis in drag?

 

[msudaisy26]

B

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

The Colts weren't loaded and competed every year. The NFL and NBA are nothing a like when it comes to the playoffs. This is a horrible comparison.

 

[msudaisy26]

I think seeding shaking out will obviously matter, but the only two teams I'm afraid of if I'm Dallas are Denver and LAC.

DAL this year has gone 1-3 against MIN (and got crushed in the losses) and 0-2 against Sacramento (both losses at home). Neither of those teams scare you?

I don't think those teams (especially Sacramento) should terrify anyone, but a 40% chance of making the WCF for this team is ... high.

There have been 778 instances in NBA regular-season history of a team playing consecutive road games against teams 15+ games over .500. The Timberwolves are the only one to win both games by 20+ points (beat 33-18 MIL by 24, beat 35-16 LAC by 21). Teams should definitely have the Wolves on their radar.

The NBA is different than any other sport when it comes to the playoffs. Teams need to learn how to win in the playoffs and the Twolves haven't yet. You rarely see a team have a great regular season for the first time and then win a title or go to the finals
I am not saying it can't happen it just isn't likely. No real contenders should be scared of the T-Wolves or Thunder.

 

[SWC]

ugly game for the bangos tonight brohans take that to the bank

 

[Jayrod]

Here's Jayrod's Super Unscientific Championship Favorites list:

1. Boston - I'm not just being a homer, they are the best team in the NBA and it's obvious. They don't play perfect, but the talent is undeniable and the East is weak.
2. Denver - If they weren't struggling so much at times this year, I'd be tempted to put them first. This is still essentially the same team that won it all last year but they seem to be coasting at times. Jokic should win the MVP again and he is the best player in the world.
3. LA Clippers - Kawhi/PG13 are the best 2-way wing tandem in the league and they have scoring to spare. They have a gear most teams can't reach and a guy who has done it twice before when healthy.
4. OKC - SGA is a superstar and Chet is a good running mate. Add in all of their Williamses, Dort and Giddey and they have enough pieces to make a run, but they have no experience there yet.
5. Dallas - Luka is the most skilled non-big in the league. He can single handedly win 2 games in a 7 game series. I dislike Kyrie, but he is a walking bucket and I like the moves they made at the deadline.
6. Minnesota - I like what they have cooking, ANT has made a leap and McDaniels has been great. But, I don't trust the Gobert/KAT combo in the playoffs and they are likely to get exploited before the Finals.
7. Milwaukee - Lillard hasn't been good enough to offset the loss of Jrue, but they have Giannis and he is still the 2nd best player in the world. Middleton is struggling to provide what they need from him and I just don't see them getting out of the East.
8. Cleveland - They are good, but not great. Fun to watch and have a lot of important pieces, but are short on playoff experience and are small on the perimeter. They match up poorly vs Boston especially.
9. Miami - One word.....culture. They have it and you don't. Honestly though they still scare me and will probably embarrass someone in the playoffs.

 

[Jayrod]

I'm really only sold on the top 3. After that it is a crapshoot, IMO and just depends on health and who gets hot at the right time.

 

[Capella]

Good write up Jayrod. Don’t think I can take Milwaukee serious right now. They are a mess. I guess they still have two months to get it right but it’s ugly as hell right now.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

ugly game for the bangos tonight brohans take that to the bank

I didn't see the game tonight, but I did see last night's game against Denver. The Bucks seemed intent on proving a point to the Nuggets by playing hard and up-tempo from the first minute to the last.

Maybe they just ran out of gas against the Heat.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Here's Jayrod's Super Unscientific Championship Favorites list:

1. Boston - I'm not just being a homer, they are the best team in the NBA and it's obvious. They don't play perfect, but the talent is undeniable and the East is weak.
2. Denver - If they weren't struggling so much at times this year, I'd be tempted to put them first. This is still essentially the same team that won it all last year but they seem to be coasting at times. Jokic should win the MVP again and he is the best player in the world.
3. LA Clippers - Kawhi/PG13 are the best 2-way wing tandem in the league and they have scoring to spare. They have a gear most teams can't reach and a guy who has done it twice before when healthy.
4. OKC - SGA is a superstar and Chet is a good running mate. Add in all of their Williamses, Dort and Giddey and they have enough pieces to make a run, but they have no experience there yet.
5. Dallas - Luka is the most skilled non-big in the league. He can single handedly win 2 games in a 7 game series. I dislike Kyrie, but he is a walking bucket and I like the moves they made at the deadline.
6. Minnesota - I like what they have cooking, ANT has made a leap and McDaniels has been great. But, I don't trust the Gobert/KAT combo in the playoffs and they are likely to get exploited before the Finals.
7. Milwaukee - Lillard hasn't been good enough to offset the loss of Jrue, but they have Giannis and he is still the 2nd best player in the world. Middleton is struggling to provide what they need from him and I just don't see them getting out of the East.
8. Cleveland - They are good, but not great. Fun to watch and have a lot of important pieces, but are short on playoff experience and are small on the perimeter. They match up poorly vs Boston especially.
9. Miami - One word.....culture. They have it and you don't. Honestly though they still scare me and will probably embarrass someone in the playoffs.

Great write up. I feel like Philadelphia is too early to rule out (if Embiid is healthy around the playoffs—I think they easily have to be up here). I also think that Phoenix and Sacramento are arguably more scary than Miami, Dallas, or Milwaukee. I also personally feel like you are too low on Minnesota. That team played the Nuggets really hard in last seasons playoffs with no Naz Reid or McDaniels. They are playing with more cohesion and chemistry this season. While McDaniels is great—they have Nickeil coming off of the bench—and he’s almost like a second McDaniels. The Timberwolves might very well be the most ”complete” team in the NBA. They have solid ball handling, they have a lot of talent at the wing positions, they are deep and talented in regards to bigs. They have perimeter shooting, they have length, they have quickness, and they have athleticism. I’d personaly have a hard time keeping them out of the top 5, and I could easily see them in that 3-4 range.

 

[Boston]

B

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

The Colts weren't loaded and competed every year. The NFL and NBA are nothing a like when it comes to the playoffs. This is a horrible comparison.

Sorry, it's not horrible...at one point he Colts had first round picks at QB-RB-both WRs-TE and had Hall-of-Famers in Manning-James-Harrison-Freeney as well as a defensive MVP in Bob Sanders and a Hall-of-Fame HC in Dungy and GM in Bill Polian (and another Hall-of Fame finalist in Reggie Wayne and a semi-finalist in Mathis)...they were loaded which is why from 2001-2010 they went 10-6, 12-4, 12-4. 14-2. 12-4, 13-3. 13-3, 12-4, 14-2, 10-6 yet they only made 2 Super Bowls appearances and won only one...this team was always close, but they did not maximize their window (the Pats being there early was a big reason early)...regardless that it is a different sport the C's right now are in a similar pattern.

 

[Instinctive]

Here's Jayrod's Super Unscientific Championship Favorites list:

1. Boston - I'm not just being a homer, they are the best team in the NBA and it's obvious. They don't play perfect, but the talent is undeniable and the East is weak.
2. Denver - If they weren't struggling so much at times this year, I'd be tempted to put them first. This is still essentially the same team that won it all last year but they seem to be coasting at times. Jokic should win the MVP again and he is the best player in the world.
3. LA Clippers - Kawhi/PG13 are the best 2-way wing tandem in the league and they have scoring to spare. They have a gear most teams can't reach and a guy who has done it twice before when healthy.
4. OKC - SGA is a superstar and Chet is a good running mate. Add in all of their Williamses, Dort and Giddey and they have enough pieces to make a run, but they have no experience there yet.
5. Dallas - Luka is the most skilled non-big in the league. He can single handedly win 2 games in a 7 game series. I dislike Kyrie, but he is a walking bucket and I like the moves they made at the deadline.
6. Minnesota - I like what they have cooking, ANT has made a leap and McDaniels has been great. But, I don't trust the Gobert/KAT combo in the playoffs and they are likely to get exploited before the Finals.
7. Milwaukee - Lillard hasn't been good enough to offset the loss of Jrue, but they have Giannis and he is still the 2nd best player in the world. Middleton is struggling to provide what they need from him and I just don't see them getting out of the East.
8. Cleveland - They are good, but not great. Fun to watch and have a lot of important pieces, but are short on playoff experience and are small on the perimeter. They match up poorly vs Boston especially.
9. Miami - One word.....culture. They have it and you don't. Honestly though they still scare me and will probably embarrass someone in the playoffs.

I think this is just about right, with the exception of NYK missing (heavily depends on Anunoby return and in form) and of course if Embiid is able to be back a Philly run isnt insane.

 

[msudaisy26]

B

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

The Colts weren't loaded and competed every year. The NFL and NBA are nothing a like when it comes to the playoffs. This is a horrible comparison.

Sorry, it's not horrible...at one point he Colts had first round picks at QB-RB-both WRs-TE and had Hall-of-Famers in Manning-James-Harrison-Freeney as well as a defensive MVP in Bob Sanders and a Hall-of-Fame HC in Dungy and GM in Bill Polian (and another Hall-of Fame finalist in Reggie Wayne and a semi-finalist in Mathis)...they were loaded which is why from 2001-2010 they went 10-6, 12-4, 12-4. 14-2. 12-4, 13-3. 13-3, 12-4, 14-2, 10-6 yet they only made 2 Super Bowls appearances and won only one...this team was always close, but they did not maximize their window (the Pats being there early was a big reason early)...regardless that it is a different sport the C's right now are in a similar pattern.

It is bad and you just named 7 players when 22 players start, plus special teams over a 10 year period in the most brutal sport on the planet. Plus it is more like 6 and 1/2 players since Sanders was never healthy. The Colts were a really good team, never great and loaded. They have nothing in common with these Celtics.

 

[Boston]

B

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

The Colts weren't loaded and competed every year. The NFL and NBA are nothing a like when it comes to the playoffs. This is a horrible comparison.

Sorry, it's not horrible...at one point he Colts had first round picks at QB-RB-both WRs-TE and had Hall-of-Famers in Manning-James-Harrison-Freeney as well as a defensive MVP in Bob Sanders and a Hall-of-Fame HC in Dungy and GM in Bill Polian (and another Hall-of Fame finalist in Reggie Wayne and a semi-finalist in Mathis)...they were loaded which is why from 2001-2010 they went 10-6, 12-4, 12-4. 14-2. 12-4, 13-3. 13-3, 12-4, 14-2, 10-6 yet they only made 2 Super Bowls appearances and won only one...this team was always close, but they did not maximize their window (the Pats being there early was a big reason early)...regardless that it is a different sport the C's right now are in a similar pattern.

It is bad and you just named 7 players when 22 players start, plus special teams over a 10 year period in the most brutal sport on the planet. Plus it is more like 6 and 1/2 players since Sanders was never healthy. The Colts were a really good team, never great and loaded. They have nothing in common with these Celtics.

Sorry...outside of the very obvious point that it is a different sport I am not onboard with you...not to belabor it because you seem sure of your point but as a fan of the Pats who's main rival was the Colts and as a fan of the C's I see striking similarities in the two teams...outside of the fact that they are two different sports which you are 100% correct.

 

[msudaisy26]

There are only 3 teams right now that anyone should be scared to play in the playoffs if they are healthy. The Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers.

Scared probably isn't the right word, they are beatable, but that team will have to have their A game for a 6 or 7 game series and in the West you will probably have to do it twice to make the finals.

 

[msudaisy26]

B

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

The Colts weren't loaded and competed every year. The NFL and NBA are nothing a like when it comes to the playoffs. This is a horrible comparison.

Sorry, it's not horrible...at one point he Colts had first round picks at QB-RB-both WRs-TE and had Hall-of-Famers in Manning-James-Harrison-Freeney as well as a defensive MVP in Bob Sanders and a Hall-of-Fame HC in Dungy and GM in Bill Polian (and another Hall-of Fame finalist in Reggie Wayne and a semi-finalist in Mathis)...they were loaded which is why from 2001-2010 they went 10-6, 12-4, 12-4. 14-2. 12-4, 13-3. 13-3, 12-4, 14-2, 10-6 yet they only made 2 Super Bowls appearances and won only one...this team was always close, but they did not maximize their window (the Pats being there early was a big reason early)...regardless that it is a different sport the C's right now are in a similar pattern.

It is bad and you just named 7 players when 22 players start, plus special teams over a 10 year period in the most brutal sport on the planet. Plus it is more like 6 and 1/2 players since Sanders was never healthy. The Colts were a really good team, never great and loaded. They have nothing in common with these Celtics.

Sorry...outside of the very obvious point that it is a different sport I am not onboard with you...not to belabor it because you seem sure of your point but as a fan of the Pats who's main rival was the Colts and as a fan of the C's I see striking similarities in the two teams...outside of the fact that they are two different sports which you are 100% correct.

But that is the point, the Pats were almost always better than the Colts and other teams were right there with the Colts. The Colts didn't under achieve at all, they were good not dominate.

The Celtics have been the best team in the league to this point, the Celtics shouldn't have lost to the Heat last year, the Celtics were the best team when they lost to the Warriors. The Celtics have a weird habit of just letting games/series slip away in the playoffs. The Colts lost, but never because the just took a game off.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

B

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

The Colts weren't loaded and competed every year. The NFL and NBA are nothing a like when it comes to the playoffs. This is a horrible comparison.

Sorry, it's not horrible...at one point he Colts had first round picks at QB-RB-both WRs-TE and had Hall-of-Famers in Manning-James-Harrison-Freeney as well as a defensive MVP in Bob Sanders and a Hall-of-Fame HC in Dungy and GM in Bill Polian (and another Hall-of Fame finalist in Reggie Wayne and a semi-finalist in Mathis)...they were loaded which is why from 2001-2010 they went 10-6, 12-4, 12-4. 14-2. 12-4, 13-3. 13-3, 12-4, 14-2, 10-6 yet they only made 2 Super Bowls appearances and won only one...this team was always close, but they did not maximize their window (the Pats being there early was a big reason early)...regardless that it is a different sport the C's right now are in a similar pattern.

It is bad and you just named 7 players when 22 players start, plus special teams over a 10 year period in the most brutal sport on the planet. Plus it is more like 6 and 1/2 players since Sanders was never healthy. The Colts were a really good team, never great and loaded. They have nothing in common with these Celtics.

Honestly most people that follow the NFL would agree with @Boston here.

I have no idea why you’re arguing that the Colts with Manning weren’t always one of the top teams in the league. Just looking at the results should back you off a bit.

 

[msudaisy26]

B

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

The Colts weren't loaded and competed every year. The NFL and NBA are nothing a like when it comes to the playoffs. This is a horrible comparison.

Sorry, it's not horrible...at one point he Colts had first round picks at QB-RB-both WRs-TE and had Hall-of-Famers in Manning-James-Harrison-Freeney as well as a defensive MVP in Bob Sanders and a Hall-of-Fame HC in Dungy and GM in Bill Polian (and another Hall-of Fame finalist in Reggie Wayne and a semi-finalist in Mathis)...they were loaded which is why from 2001-2010 they went 10-6, 12-4, 12-4. 14-2. 12-4, 13-3. 13-3, 12-4, 14-2, 10-6 yet they only made 2 Super Bowls appearances and won only one...this team was always close, but they did not maximize their window (the Pats being there early was a big reason early)...regardless that it is a different sport the C's right now are in a similar pattern.

It is bad and you just named 7 players when 22 players start, plus special teams over a 10 year period in the most brutal sport on the planet. Plus it is more like 6 and 1/2 players since Sanders was never healthy. The Colts were a really good team, never great and loaded. They have nothing in common with these Celtics.

Honestly most people that follow the NFL would agree with @Boston here.

I have no idea why you’re arguing that the Colts with Manning weren’t always one of the top teams in the league. Just looking at the results should back you off a bit.

I just said they were, but they weren't the juggernaut he is claiming.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

B

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

The Colts weren't loaded and competed every year. The NFL and NBA are nothing a like when it comes to the playoffs. This is a horrible comparison.

Sorry, it's not horrible...at one point he Colts had first round picks at QB-RB-both WRs-TE and had Hall-of-Famers in Manning-James-Harrison-Freeney as well as a defensive MVP in Bob Sanders and a Hall-of-Fame HC in Dungy and GM in Bill Polian (and another Hall-of Fame finalist in Reggie Wayne and a semi-finalist in Mathis)...they were loaded which is why from 2001-2010 they went 10-6, 12-4, 12-4. 14-2. 12-4, 13-3. 13-3, 12-4, 14-2, 10-6 yet they only made 2 Super Bowls appearances and won only one...this team was always close, but they did not maximize their window (the Pats being there early was a big reason early)...regardless that it is a different sport the C's right now are in a similar pattern.

It is bad and you just named 7 players when 22 players start, plus special teams over a 10 year period in the most brutal sport on the planet. Plus it is more like 6 and 1/2 players since Sanders was never healthy. The Colts were a really good team, never great and loaded. They have nothing in common with these Celtics.

Honestly most people that follow the NFL would agree with @Boston here.

I have no idea why you’re arguing that the Colts with Manning weren’t always one of the top teams in the league. Just looking at the results should back you off a bit.

I just said they were, but they weren't the juggernaut he is claiming.

So you’re arguing endlessly just to split hairs - carry on then by all means.

 

[Boston]

B

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

The Colts weren't loaded and competed every year. The NFL and NBA are nothing a like when it comes to the playoffs. This is a horrible comparison.

Sorry, it's not horrible...at one point he Colts had first round picks at QB-RB-both WRs-TE and had Hall-of-Famers in Manning-James-Harrison-Freeney as well as a defensive MVP in Bob Sanders and a Hall-of-Fame HC in Dungy and GM in Bill Polian (and another Hall-of Fame finalist in Reggie Wayne and a semi-finalist in Mathis)...they were loaded which is why from 2001-2010 they went 10-6, 12-4, 12-4. 14-2. 12-4, 13-3. 13-3, 12-4, 14-2, 10-6 yet they only made 2 Super Bowls appearances and won only one...this team was always close, but they did not maximize their window (the Pats being there early was a big reason early)...regardless that it is a different sport the C's right now are in a similar pattern.

It is bad and you just named 7 players when 22 players start, plus special teams over a 10 year period in the most brutal sport on the planet. Plus it is more like 6 and 1/2 players since Sanders was never healthy. The Colts were a really good team, never great and loaded. They have nothing in common with these Celtics.

Sorry...outside of the very obvious point that it is a different sport I am not onboard with you...not to belabor it because you seem sure of your point but as a fan of the Pats who's main rival was the Colts and as a fan of the C's I see striking similarities in the two teams...outside of the fact that they are two different sports which you are 100% correct.

But that is the point, the Pats were almost always better than the Colts and other teams were right there with the Colts. The Colts didn't under achieve at all, they were good not dominate.

The Celtics have been the best team in the league to this point, the Celtics shouldn't have lost to the Heat last year, the Celtics were the best team when they lost to the Warriors. The Celtics have a weird habit of just letting games/series slip away in the playoffs. The Colts lost, but never because the just took a game off.

It is easy in hindsight to think the Pats were dominant but going into 03 (definitely) and 04 many thought the Colts were the superior team...regardless, you are missing the general point which is the C's are like the Colts in that they were both dominant regular season teams (sorry but the Colts were and the record backs this up 100%) but there was just something missing that caused them not to win championships which is where the C's currently are...it may not be the exact same thing (with the C's I think it may be mental toughness and with the Colts it may have been physical toughness) but it appears to rear its head when they get to the bigger stages of the playoffs...that is my point and why I said "a little something is missing" in my original post whereas you are looking for a 100% exact comparison when the point is a more general one.

 

[Boston]

B

Updated championship probabilities from the geeky analytics sites . . . (only teams with a 5% chance listed):

Basketball Reference:
BOS 42.2%, OKC 15.5%, MIN 13.9%, CLE 7.0%, LAC 6.3%

ESPN BPI:
BOS 27.8%, LAC 14.9%, CLE 14.4%, MIL 12.8%, MIN 8.4%

Playoff Status:
BOS 31%, MIN 14%, OKC 10%, DEN 9%, CLE 8%, LAC 7%, MIL 5%

Power Rankings Guru:
BOS 38%, LAC 13%, CLE 9%, MIN 7%, OKC 7%, MIL 7%, DEN 6%

Not sure what "secret sauce" is used in their calculations. The results are more varied than I expected.

Any formula that doesn't have Denver above 5% seems flawed. I get Boston is the current favorite, but their % seems too high as well. Probably should be around 20-25%.

Those first 2 must be much more weighted toward recent results and give serious bonus points for being in like the top 5 in net rating or something, but regardless I still don't see how MIN and OKC could be differentiated that much from DEN in those 2.

If the playoffs started right now, who is ichallenging Boston in the East? Maybe Cleveland figures it all, maybe Embiid comes back and is healthy, maybe the Bucks with Doc pull it together etc, but all the data they use is based on this season up to this point. Boston should be a huge favorite just to get out of the East and probably a favorite against any team in the West right now.

The C’s should be the favorite but they need to prove they are tough enough to go the distance…right now they remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts who only won one title but were always close…both teams are totally loaded and always capable of dominating anyone but there is just a little something missing that doesn’t catch-up with them until the playoffs…the C’s really need to win it this year and get this monkey off their back…if they can they have a real good chance to win multiple titles but right now when I watch them I often feel the opposite of how I did with the Brady Patriots.

The Colts weren't loaded and competed every year. The NFL and NBA are nothing a like when it comes to the playoffs. This is a horrible comparison.

Sorry, it's not horrible...at one point he Colts had first round picks at QB-RB-both WRs-TE and had Hall-of-Famers in Manning-James-Harrison-Freeney as well as a defensive MVP in Bob Sanders and a Hall-of-Fame HC in Dungy and GM in Bill Polian (and another Hall-of Fame finalist in Reggie Wayne and a semi-finalist in Mathis)...they were loaded which is why from 2001-2010 they went 10-6, 12-4, 12-4. 14-2. 12-4, 13-3. 13-3, 12-4, 14-2, 10-6 yet they only made 2 Super Bowls appearances and won only one...this team was always close, but they did not maximize their window (the Pats being there early was a big reason early)...regardless that it is a different sport the C's right now are in a similar pattern.

It is bad and you just named 7 players when 22 players start, plus special teams over a 10 year period in the most brutal sport on the planet. Plus it is more like 6 and 1/2 players since Sanders was never healthy. The Colts were a really good team, never great and loaded. They have nothing in common with these Celtics.

Honestly most people that follow the NFL would agree with @Boston here.

I have no idea why you’re arguing that the Colts with Manning weren’t always one of the top teams in the league. Just looking at the results should back you off a bit.

I just said they were, but they weren't the juggernaut he is claiming.

The C's now are no more of a juggernaut then the Colts were then...and yes, the Colts were a dominant regular season team...not sure how that is debatable.

 

[Instinctive]

There are only 3 teams right now that anyone should be scared to play in the playoffs if they are healthy. The Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers.

Scared probably isn't the right word, they are beatable, but that team will have to have their A game for a 6 or 7 game series and in the West you will probably have to do it twice to make the finals.

I think the dream scenario for GS, Dallas, Phoenix, Sacramento, New Orleans (I don't think they stay in here but maybe) and even LAL is to get the 5 seed with LAC/DEN landing in the 2/3 spot. I think the matchups then depend on team (Dallas matches up better with OKC, for example) but that's likely a winnable 4v5 round and a winnable 5v1 round and suddenly you're in the WCF, likely Denver or LAC only to go.

 

[msudaisy26]

There are only 3 teams right now that anyone should be scared to play in the playoffs if they are healthy. The Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers.

Scared probably isn't the right word, they are beatable, but that team will have to have their A game for a 6 or 7 game series and in the West you will probably have to do it twice to make the finals.

I think the dream scenario for GS, Dallas, Phoenix, Sacramento, New Orleans (I don't think they stay in here but maybe) and even LAL is to get the 5 seed with LAC/DEN landing in the 2/3 spot. I think the matchups then depend on team (Dallas matches up better with OKC, for example) but that's likely a winnable 4v5 round and a winnable 5v1 round and suddenly you're in the WCF, likely Denver or LAC only to go.

It could happen that way. In my scenario I just kind of thought the Clippers would keep rolling and eventually pull away with the 1 seed.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

ugly game for the bangos tonight brohans take that to the bank

As someone on twitter said, the Dame Package beat Dame.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Warriors Made Bid for LeBron at Trade Deadline

El Oh El.


largely unrelated tip: if you have left Twitter for Bluesky, or would like to leave Twitter for Bluesky but are worried you won't get the sports news you need (you won't), there's an account there that just reposts everything Shams and Woj tweet.

 

[TobiasFunke]

From this article:

Dunleavy was the second team executive call to Pelinka on a possible James trade, sources said. After seeing James' cryptic social media post of an hourglass a week before the trade deadline, Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey called Pelinka to probe on a James trade and was immediately told that James wasn't available. In fact, Pelinka responded by asking Morey if Joel Embiid was available, sources said. And that ended that brief conversation.

Best league in sports

 

[Jayrod]

There are only 3 teams right now that anyone should be scared to play in the playoffs if they are healthy. The Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers.

Scared probably isn't the right word, they are beatable, but that team will have to have their A game for a 6 or 7 game series and in the West you will probably have to do it twice to make the finals.

Yup. They are the only 3 teams I'm sold on. The rest of the list is fluctuating week to week. The next group either has little to no playoff experience or has some flaws or both. OKC, MIN & CLE all have complete teams but I don't trust them to win 4 straight 7 game series against good teams.

One of the biggest differences between the regular season and playoffs is facing the same team several times in a row. It creates a very different dynamic that make playoff experience and good coaching more important than in the regular season.

 

[the moops]

There are only 3 teams right now that anyone should be scared to play in the playoffs if they are healthy. The Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers.

Scared probably isn't the right word, they are beatable, but that team will have to have their A game for a 6 or 7 game series and in the West you will probably have to do it twice to make the finals.

Yup. They are the only 3 teams I'm sold on. The rest of the list is fluctuating week to week. The next group either has little to no playoff experience or has some flaws or both. OKC, MIN & CLE all have complete teams but I don't trust them to win 4 straight 7 game series against good teams.

One of the biggest differences between the regular season and playoffs is facing the same team several times in a row. It creates a very different dynamic that make playoff experience and good coaching more important than in the regular season.

Not sure how everyone is still sleeping on the Heat. Same W/L percentage as last year. Been to 3 eastern conference finals and two finals in the past 4 years. Same core of players. Same great coach

 

[Jayrod]

There are only 3 teams right now that anyone should be scared to play in the playoffs if they are healthy. The Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers.

Scared probably isn't the right word, they are beatable, but that team will have to have their A game for a 6 or 7 game series and in the West you will probably have to do it twice to make the finals.

I think the dream scenario for GS, Dallas, Phoenix, Sacramento, New Orleans (I don't think they stay in here but maybe) and even LAL is to get the 5 seed with LAC/DEN landing in the 2/3 spot. I think the matchups then depend on team (Dallas matches up better with OKC, for example) but that's likely a winnable 4v5 round and a winnable 5v1 round and suddenly you're in the WCF, likely Denver or LAC only to go.

It could happen that way. In my scenario I just kind of thought the Clippers would keep rolling and eventually pull away with the 1 seed.

If Kawhi and PG stay healthy, they will probably get the 1 seed. They have been playing the best basketball in the West over the last two months and have so much scoring that they can coast to wins some nights (shooting barely under 40% from 3 as a team). They haven't even really got their defense figured out yet either.

 

[Jayrod]

There are only 3 teams right now that anyone should be scared to play in the playoffs if they are healthy. The Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers.

Scared probably isn't the right word, they are beatable, but that team will have to have their A game for a 6 or 7 game series and in the West you will probably have to do it twice to make the finals.

Yup. They are the only 3 teams I'm sold on. The rest of the list is fluctuating week to week. The next group either has little to no playoff experience or has some flaws or both. OKC, MIN & CLE all have complete teams but I don't trust them to win 4 straight 7 game series against good teams.

One of the biggest differences between the regular season and playoffs is facing the same team several times in a row. It creates a very different dynamic that make playoff experience and good coaching more important than in the regular season.

Not sure how everyone is still sleeping on the Heat. Same W/L percentage as last year. Been to 3 eastern conference finals and two finals in the past 4 years. Same core of players. Same great coach

They are currently still having to work through the play-in (yes like last year) and have had a bunch of injuries all season.

I did put them in as #9 on my power ranking list.